Vegetation Drought Research Articles

A Coupled Model for Forecasting Spatiotemporal Variability of Regional Drought in the Mu Us Sandy Land Using a Meta-Heuristic Algorithm

Vegetation plays a vital role in terrestrial ecosystems, and droughts driven by rising temperatures pose significant threats to vegetation health. This study investigates the evolution of vegetation drought from 2010 to 2024 and introduces a deep-learning-based forecasting model for analyzing regional spatial and temporal variations in drought. Extensive time-series remote-sensing data were utilized, and we integrated the Temperature–Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), Drought Severity Index (DSI), Evaporation Stress Index (ESI), and the Temperature–Vegetation–Precipitation Dryness Index (TVPDI) to develop a comprehensive methodology for extracting regional vegetation drought characteristics. To mitigate the effects of regional drought non-stationarity on predictive accuracy, we propose a coupling-enhancement strategy that combines the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) with the Informer model, enabling more precise forecasting of long-term regional drought variations. Unlike conventional deep-learning models, this approach introduces rapid convergence and global search capabilities, utilizing a sparse self-attention mechanism that improves performance while reducing model complexity. The results demonstrate that: (1) compared to the traditional Transformer model, test accuracy is improved by 43%; (2) the WOA–Informer model efficiently handles multi-objective forecasting for extended time series, achieving MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ≤ 0.05, MSE (Mean Squared Error) ≤ 0.001, MSPE (Mean Squared Percentage Error) ≤ 0.01, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) ≤ 5%. This research provides advanced predictive tools and precise model support for long-term vegetation restoration efforts.

Engineering quantitative stomatal trait variation and local adaptation potential by cis-regulatory editing.

Cis-regulatory element editing can generate quantitative trait variation that mitigates extreme phenotypes and harmful pleiotropy associated with coding sequence mutations. Here, we applied a multiplexed CRISPR/Cas9 approach, informed by bioinformatic datasets, to generate genotypic variation in the promoter of OsSTOMAGEN, a positive regulator of rice stomatal density. Engineered genotypic variation corresponded to broad and continuous variation in stomatal density, ranging from 70% to 120% of wild-type stomatal density. This panel of stomatal variants was leveraged in physiological assays to establish discrete relationships between stomatal morphological variation and stomatal conductance, carbon assimilation and intrinsic water use efficiency in steady-state and fluctuating light conditions. Additionally, promoter alleles were subjected to vegetative drought regimes to assay the effects of the edited alleles on developmental response to drought. Notably, the capacity for drought-responsive stomatal density reprogramming in stomagen and two cis-regulatory edited alleles was reduced. Collectively our data demonstrate that cis-regulatory element editing can generate near-isogenic trait variation that can be leveraged for establishing relationships between anatomy and physiology, providing a basis for optimizing traits across diverse environments.

Drought dynamics in California and Mississippi: A wavelet analysis of meteorological to agricultural drought transition

Understanding the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought is crucial for developing effective drought management strategies and early warning systems. This study provides a unique perspective by utilizing hybrid drought indices to explore the temporal and spatial complexities of drought propagation across two large watersheds—California and Mississippi—that feature distinct agro-climatic conditions and irrigation practices. We assess the links between meteorological drought, measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and agricultural drought using three indicators: Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), GRACE Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile (SMI), and the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). By comparing watersheds with different irrigation systems, we also consider the role of irrigation in modifying drought dynamics. Our analysis identified the 14-day SPI as particularly effective in capturing drought dynamics. Soil moisture showed the earliest response to rainfall anomalies, with a lag of 41 days in California and 59 days in Mississippi. Vegetation stress followed, with a lag of 137 days in California and 75 days in Mississippi, while atmospheric conditions lagged by 143 and 139 days, respectively. Irrigation was found to delay drought impacts by up to two months. This framework offers a finer temporal resolution and a more nuanced understanding of drought propagation, potentially informing more targeted drought mitigation strategies than traditional methods.

Detecting Drought-Related Temporal Effects on Global Net Primary Productivity

Drought has extensive, far-reaching, and long-lasting asymmetric effects on vegetation growth worldwide in the context of global warming. However, to date, few scholars have attempted the systematic quantification of the temporal effects of drought on global vegetation across various vegetation types and diverse climate zones. Addressing this gap, we quantitatively investigated the effects of drought on global vegetation growth under various scenarios, considering lagged and cumulative effects as well as combined effects in the 1982–2018 period. Our investigation was based on long-term net primary productivity (NPP) and two multiple-timescale drought indices: the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our main findings were the following: (1) SPI and SPEI exhibited lagged effects on 52.08% and 37.05% of global vegetation, leading to average time lags of 2.48 months and 1.76 months, respectively. The cumulative effects of SPI and SPEI were observed in 80.01% and 72.16% of global vegetated areas, respectively, being associated with relatively longer cumulative timescales of 5.60 months and 5.16 months, respectively. (2) Compared to the scenario excluding temporal effects, there were increases in the explanatory powers of SPI and SPEI for variations in vegetation NPP based on the lagged, cumulative, and combined effects of drought: SPI increased by 0.82%, 6.65%, and 6.92%, respectively, whereas SPEI increased by 0.67%, 5.73%, and 6.07%, respectively. The cumulative effects of drought on global vegetation NPP were stronger than the lagged effects in approximately two-thirds (64.95% and 63.52% for SPI and SPEI, respectively) of global vegetated areas. (3) The effects of drought on vegetation NPP varied according to climate zones and vegetation types. Interestingly, vegetation in arid zones was the most sensitive and resilient to drought, as indicated by its rapid response to drought and the longest cumulative timescales. The vegetation NPP in tropical and temperate zones exhibited a relatively stronger response to drought than that in cold and polar zones. The strongest correlation of vegetation NPP with drought occurred in shrubland areas, followed by grassland, cropland, forest, and tundra areas. Moreover, for each vegetation type, the correlations between vegetation NPP and drought differed significantly among most climate zones. (4) The vegetation NPP in warming-induced drought regions displayed a higher correlation to drought than that in non-warming-induced drought regions, with shorter lagged and longer cumulative timescales. Our findings highlight the heterogeneity of the lagged, cumulative, and combined effects of drought across various climate zones and vegetation types; this could enhance our understanding of the coupling relationship between drought and global vegetation.

Remote Sensing-Based Drought Monitoring in Iran’s Sistan and Balouchestan Province

Drought is a natural phenomenon that has adverse effects on agriculture, the economy, and human well-being. The primary objective of this research was to comprehensively understand the drought conditions in Sistan and Balouchestan Province from 2002 to 2017 from two perspectives: vegetation cover and hydrology. To achieve this goal, the study utilized MODIS satellite data in the first part to monitor vegetation cover as an indicator of agricultural drought. In the second part, GRACE satellite data were employed to analyze changes in groundwater resources as an indicator of hydrological drought. To assess vegetation drought, four indices were used: Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation Drought Index (VDI), Visible Infrared Drought Index (VSDI), and Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI). To validate vegetation drought indices, they were compared with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation data. The vegetation indices showed a strong, statistically significant correlation with GLDAS precipitation data in most regions of the province. Among all indices, the VHI showed the highest correlation with precipitation (moderate (0.3–0.7) in 51.7% and strong (≥0.7) in 45.82% of lands). The output of vegetation indices revealed that the study province has experienced widespread drought in recent years. The results showed that the southern and central regions of the province have faced more severe drought classes. In the second part of this research, hydrological drought monitoring was conducted in fifty third-order sub-basins located within the study province using the Total Water Storage (TWS) deficit, Drought Severity, and Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI Index). Annual average calculations of the TWS deficit over the period from April 2012 to 2016 indicated a substantial depletion of groundwater reserves in the province, amounting to a cumulative loss of 12.2 km3 Analysis results indicate that drought severity continuously increased in all study basins until the end of the study period. Studies have shown that all the studied basins are facing severe and prolonged water scarcity. Among the 50 studied basins, the Rahmatabad basin, located in the semi-arid northern regions of the province, has experienced the most severe drought. This basin has experienced five drought events, particularly one lasting 89 consecutive months and causing a reduction of more than 665.99 km3. of water in month 1, placing it in a critical condition. On the other hand, the Niskoofan Chabahar basin, located in the tropical southern part of the province near the Sea of Oman, has experienced the lowest reduction in water volume with 10 drought events and a decrease of approximately 111.214 km3. in month 1. However, even this basin has not been spared from prolonged droughts. Analysis of drought index graphs across different severity classes confirmed that all watersheds experienced drought conditions, particularly in the later years of this period. Data analysis revealed a severe water crisis in the province. Urgent and coordinated actions are needed to address this challenge. Transitioning to drought-resistant crops, enhancing irrigation efficiency, and securing water rights are essential steps towards a sustainable future.

Monitoring of Vegetation Drought Index in Laibin City Based on Landsat Multispectral Remote Sensing Data

Due to the impact of global warming, drought has caused serious damage to China’s ecological environment and social status. This article selects Laibin City in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as the research area, utilizing multispectral remote sensing data as the data source and Landsat series image data for relevant preprocessing. It calculates the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and surface temperature (LST) data for Laibin City. Based on the ecological environment and surface coverage conditions of the research area, the ratio vegetation index (RVI), normalized vegetation moisture index (NDWI), temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), and conditional vegetation temperature drought index (VTCI) were selected to calculate and invert the drought monitoring results of Laibin City. The drought monitoring results were obtained and overlaid with the vegetation area map to generate the vegetation drought monitoring results of Laibin City. Based on the climate, geography, and ecological characteristics of the monitored area in Laibin City, a specific analysis will be conducted to develop an appropriate TVDI index drought level, and generate vegetation drought level result maps for Laibin City in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Then, a detailed analysis of the vegetation drought situation in Laibin City is conducted according to time and space. Among them, in the past three years, the vegetation areas in Laibin City have experienced drought seasons mostly in summer and autumn. The interannual drought is mainly mild drought, and the proportion of areas with mild drought shows a relatively stable trend. In conclusion, TVDI proves to be a valuable tool for monitoring vegetation drought in Laibin City, offering insights for efficient water resource management strategies.

Drought Timing Differentiates the Drought Responses of Vegetation Growth on the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau, with its great hydrothermal gradients and diverse ecosystems, is considered vulnerable to climate change. Extreme drought can have detrimental effects on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems by disrupting plant eco‐hydrological processes. Such effects are presumed to vary and depend on the vegetation types, environmental factors and drought properties. The drought timing has been widely highlighted in drought studies at both regional and site scales. However, the systematic insight into the impact of drought timing on the ecosystem functioning over the Tibetan Plateau remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the responses of vegetation greenness to meteorological drought and attributed them to the drought properties, climatic and edaphic factors. We found that the timing of drought plays a predominant role in regulating vegetation drought responses on the Tibetan Plateau. Notably, we observed significant differences in vegetation responses between late growing season drought and non‐late growing season drought. In addition to drought timing, soil moisture and long‐term hydrothermal conditions also played a significant role. Furthermore, our study revealed that alpine grassland was more sensitive to the drought timing, soil moisture and sand content than woody plants. We discovered a significant interplay between rainfall at hottest quarter and drought timing, with the role of drought timing weakening as the rainfall at hottest quarter increases. These findings underscore the crucial role of drought timing in shaping ecosystem functioning in response to the changing climate regime over the Tibetan Plateau and provide crucial insights into the improvement of land surface models.

The Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Vegetation Drought Based on Three-Dimensional Clustering Algorithm in China

The spatiotemporal continuity characteristics of drought are the basis for analyzing its spatial migration and evolution, which is significant for mitigation and early warning of drought. The aim of this paper is to identify meteorological and vegetation drought events in China from 1982 to 2022, reveal the dynamic changes of typical drought events, and elucidate the propagation characteristics of meteorological and vegetation drought. The results showed that (1) based on a three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, China experienced 138 meteorological drought events and 76 vegetation drought events; (2) the severity of the meteorological drought event No. M138 (2022.03–2022.11) reached 667.58 × 104 km2·month, and the severity of the vegetation drought event No. V68 (2019.06–2020.04) reached 572.89 × 104 km2·month; (3) a total of 40 meteorological-vegetation drought event pairs had been identified, which was divided into three main types: “single”, “simple”, and “complexity”; and (4) in the typical drought event pair No. P-34, the area difference was 16.45 × 104 km2, and the severity difference was 3.89 × 104 km2. The research results can provide a new perspective for identifying the dynamic changes and propagation characteristics of drought events from a three-dimensional perspective, which is of great significance for predicting vegetation drought and protecting the ecological environment.

Climate change does not impact the water flow of barley at the vegetative stage, ameliorates at anthesis and worsens after subsequent drought episodes

Climate change will bring the interaction of stresses such as increased temperature and drought under high [CO2] conditions. This is likely to impact on crop growth and productivity. This study aimed to (i) determine the response of barley water relations to vegetative and anthesis drought periods under triple interaction conditions, (ii) test the possibility to prime barley plants for drought, and (iii) analyse the involvement of aquaporins in (i) and (ii). The water status of barley was not affected by drought at the vegetative stage, regardless of the environmental conditions. At the anthesis stage, when the water shortage period was more severe, barley plants growing under combined elevated CO2 and temperature conditions were able to maintain a better water status compared with plants grown under current conditions. Elevated CO2 and temperature conditions reduced the stomatal conductance and slowed down the plant water flow through a root-leaf hydraulic conductivity coordination. Leaf HvPIP2;1 and HvTIP1;1 aquaporins seemed to play a key role regulating barley's water flow, while leaf and root HvPIP2;5 provided basic level of water flow. At anthesis drought and under future combined conditions, plants showed a reduced cell dehydration and decrease in leaf relative water content compared with plants grown under current conditions. Exposure to a previous drought did not prime the water status of barley plants to a subsequent drought, but instead worsened the response under future conditions. This was due to an imbalance between the roots versus shoot development.

Accurate Characterization of Soil Moisture in Wheat Fields with an Improved Drought Index from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Observations

Soil moisture content is a crucial indicator for understanding the water requirements of crops. The effective monitoring of soil moisture content can provide support for irrigation decision-making and agricultural water management. Traditional ground-based measurement methods are time-consuming and labor-intensive, and point-scale monitoring cannot effectively represent the heterogeneity of soil moisture in the field. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing technology offers an efficient and convenient way to monitor soil moisture content in large fields, but airborne multispectral data are prone to spectral saturation effects, which can further affect the accuracy of monitoring soil moisture content. Therefore, we aim to construct effective drought indices for the accurate characterization of soil moisture content in winter wheat fields by utilizing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with LiDAR, thermal infrared, and multispectral sensors. Initially, we estimated wheat plant height using airborne LiDAR sensors and improved traditional spectral indices in a structured manner based on crop height. Subsequently, we constructed the normalized land surface temperature–structured normalized difference vegetation index (NLST-SNDVI) space by combining the SNDVI with land surface temperature and calculated the improved Temperature–Vegetation Drought Index (iTVDI). The results are summarized as follows: (1) the structured spectral indices exhibit better resistance to spectral saturation, making the NLST-SNDVI space closer to expectations than the NLST-NDVI space, with higher fitting accuracy for wet and dry edges; (2) the iTVDI calculated based on the NLST-SNDVI space can effectively characterize soil moisture content, showing a significant correlation with measured surface soil moisture content; (3) the global Moran’s I calculated based on iTVDI deviations ranges between 0.18 and 0.30, all reaching significant levels, indicating that iTVDI has good spatial applicability. In conclusion, this study proved the effectiveness of the drought index based on a structured vegetation index, and the results can provide support for crop moisture monitoring and irrigation decision-making in the field.

Dynamic relationships and propagation characteristics between meteorological drought and vegetation drought based on a three-dimensional identification algorithm

Drought is a regional phenomenon and progressive in specific dimensions of time and space, with significant continuity and dynamic characteristics on a spatiotemporal scale. The meteorological drought acts as a driving factor for vegetation drought, and studying the response characteristics of vegetation drought to meteorological drought is crucial for comprehending the mechanisms of drought evolution. In this study, based on a three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, meteorological and vegetation drought events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 1982 to 2020 were identified, and the dynamic characteristics of typical drought events were depicted, elucidating the inherent correlations and propagation features between meteorological and vegetation drought events. Additionally, according to the spatiotemporal matching criteria of drought events, the meteorological-vegetation drought event pairs were successfully matched, which can reveal the lag time between meteorological drought and vegetation drought. From a three-dimensional perspective, we revealed the dynamic propagation characteristics of meteorological and vegetation drought events, which could provide an effective way for monitoring and mitigating regional vegetation drought, restoring ecosystem functionality, and promoting sustainable development of the ecological environment.

Improving Subsurface Soil Moisture Estimation Using a 2‐Dimensional Data Assimilation Framework Incorporated With a Dual State‐Parameter Scheme

AbstractAccurate subsurface soil moisture (SM) estimation is critical for vegetation growth, drought monitoring, and climate change mitigation, yet remains a significant challenge. Previous data assimilation (DA) approaches are limited to only surface SM assimilation. In this study, we utilized the proxy subsurface SM estimated via the exponential filter method (ExpF) as another assimilation variable in our 2‐dimensional DA. Meanwhile, the dual updating DA scheme was implemented to simultaneously update model parameters and states. The two DA pathways were incorporated into the proposed framework (DA_1E_D), which enhanced the subsurface SM accuracy, with the effects of 2‐dimensional assimilation being more significant. Under 2‐dimensional DA, the information transfer between layers was more accurately characterized, leading to overall improvements with unbiased root‐mean‐square error (ubRMSE) reductions of 0.015 and 0.005 m3 · m−3, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) increases of 0.248 and 0.067 for surface and subsurface SM, respectively, across five SM networks. The soil thickness (d2) and hydraulic conductivity exponent (expt2) are the most influential parameters affecting subsurface SM dynamics through model propagation. DA_1E_D also outperformed ExpF in subsurface SM accuracy, particularly in SM networks with weak surface‐subsurface correlation, achieving an average ubRMSE reduction of 0.003 m3 · m−3 and an average KGE increase of 0.202. It was also applied to Soil Moisture Active Passive data at regional scale, demonstrating significant improvements. The model surface‐subsurface SM coupling was adjusted toward the actual coupling after subsurface assimilation and dual updating. This study may provide new insights into the diagnosis and refinements of the model representation of surface‐subsurface processes.

Detecting Vegetation Stress in Mixed Forest Ecosystems Through the Joint Use of Tree‐Water Monitoring and Land Surface Modeling

AbstractRecent European heatwaves have significantly impacted forest ecosystems, leading to increased plant water stress. Advances in land surface models aim to improve the representation of vegetation drought responses by incorporating plant hydraulics into the plant functional type (PFT) classification system. However, reliance on PFTs may inadequately capture the diverse plant hydraulic traits (PHTs), potentially biasing transpiration and vegetation water stress representations. The detection of vegetation drought stress is further complicated by the mixing of different tree species and forest patches. This study uses the Community Land Model version 5.0 to simulate an experimental mixed‐forest catchment with configurations representing standalone, patched mixed, and fully‐mixed forests. Biome‐generic, PFT‐specific, or species‐specific PHTs are employed. Results emphasize the crucial role of accurately representing mixed forests in reproducing observed vegetation water stress and transpiration fluxes for both broadleaf and needleleaf tree species. The dominant vegetation fraction is a key determinant, influencing aggregated vegetation response patterns. Segregation level in PHT parameterizations shapes differences between observed and simulated transpiration fluxes. Simulated root water potential emerges as a potential metric for detecting vegetation stress periods. However, the model's plant hydraulic system has limitations in reproducing the long‐term effects of extreme weather events on needleleaf tree species. These findings highlight the complexity of modeling mixed forests and underscore the need for improved representation of plant diversity in land surface models to enhance the understanding of vegetation water stress under changing climate conditions.

Correlation between Soil Moisture Change and Geological Disasters in E’bian Area (Sichuan, China)

E’bian Yi Autonomous County is a mineral-rich area located in a complex geological structure zone. The region experiences frequent geological disasters due to concentrated rainfall, steep terrain, and uneven vegetation cover. In particular, during the rainy season, large amounts of rainwater rapidly accumulate, increasing soil moisture and slope pressure, making landslides and debris flows more likely. Additionally, human activities such as mining, road construction, and building can alter the original geological structure, exacerbating the risk of geological disasters. According to publicly available data from the Leshan government, various types of geological disasters occurred in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, resulting in economic losses and casualties. Although some studies have focused on geological disaster issues in E’bian, these studies are often limited to specific areas or types of disasters and lack comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, due to constraints in technology, funding, and manpower, geophysical exploration, field geological exploration, and environmental ecological investigations have been challenging to carry out comprehensively, leading to insufficient and unsystematic data collection. To provide data support and monitoring for regional territorial spatial planning and geological disaster prevention and control, this paper proposes a new method to study the correlation between soil moisture changes and geological disasters. Six high-resolution Landsat remote sensing images were used as the main data sources to process the image band data, and terrain factors were extracted and classified using a digital elevation model (DEM). Meanwhile, a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index–Land Surface Temperature (NDVI-LST) feature space was constructed. The Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) was calculated to analyze the variation trend and influencing factors of soil moisture in the study area. The research results showed that the variation in soil moisture in the study area was relatively stable, and the overall soil moisture content was high (0.18 < TVDI < 0.33). However, due to the large variation in topographic relief, it could provide power and be a source basis for geological disasters such as landslide and collapse, so the inversion value of TVDI was small. The minimum and maximum values of the correlation coefficient (R2) were 0.60 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that the surface water content was relatively large, which was in good agreement with the calculated results of vegetation coverage and conducive to the restoration of ecological stability. In general, based on the characteristics of remote sensing technology and the division of soil moisture critical values, the promoting and hindering effects of soil moisture on geological hazards can be accurately described, and the research results can provide effective guidance for the prevention and control of geological hazards in this region.

Nonlinear effects of agricultural drought on vegetation productivity in the Yellow River Basin, China

Agricultural drought (AD) is the main environmental factor affecting vegetation productivity (VP) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In recent years, the nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB have attracted much attention. However, it is still unclear whether fluctuating AD will have complex nonlinear effects on VP in the YRB, and there are scant previous studies at large scale on whether there is a threshold for nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB. Therefore, this study used a newly developed agricultural drought index to explore nonlinear effects on VP revealing the nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB. First, we developed a kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI) based on kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) and land surface temperature data to study the spatiotemporal variation of AD in the YRB. Second, we used GPP data from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence inversion as an indicator to explore the spatiotemporal variation of VP in the YRB. Finally, we used several statistical indicators and a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to analyze the nonlinear effect of AD on VP in the YRB. The results showed that AD decreased significantly during 2000–2020, mainly in the southeast of the Loess Plateau, while GPP increased significantly in 80.93 % of the YRB. Meanwhile, moderate and severe AD stress limited VP growth, with the negative effects gradually decreasing, while mild AD had an increasingly positive promoting effect on VP. AD stress resulted in a VP decrease of 69.78 %, and severe AD stress resulted in a VP decrease of 65.52 %, mainly distributed in the northern Loess and Ordos Plateau. AD had significant nonlinear effects on VP. The effects of moderate and severe AD on the sustained nonlinear lag of vegetation were more obvious, and those of moderate and severe AD on the nonlinear lag of VP were the largest when the lag was approximately 1 month and 7 months. The effect of AD on the nonlinear hysteresis of VP in YRB was significantly different under different vegetation types, and forests were more able to withstand longer and more severe droughts than grasslands and croplands. The results of the study provide a theoretical basis for evaluating AD and analyzing the nonlinear impact of AD on VP. This will provide scientific basis for studying the mechanism of drought effect on vegetation in other regions.

Elevated CO2 concentrations contribute to a closer relationship between vegetation growth and water availability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with large human populations and terrestrial carbon sinks, have a high demand for and dependence on water resources. Despite the growing interest in vegetation responses to drought under climate change in this region, our understanding of changes in the relationship between vegetation growth and water availability (referred to as Rvw) remains limited. Here, we aim to explore the Rvw and its drivers in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes between 1982 and 2015. We used the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the fine-resolution Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) as proxies for vegetation growth and water availability, respectively. The trend analysis results showed that changes in NDVI and PDSI were asynchronous over the past three decades. Moreover, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of the correlation coefficient between NDVI and PDSI. The results indicated that the Rvw was getting closer in more areas over the period, but there were differences across ecosystems. Specifically, most croplands and grasslands were primarily constrained by water deficit, which was getting stronger; however, most forests were primarily constrained by water surplus, which was getting weaker. Furthermore, our random forest regression models indicated that the dominant driver of changes in the NDVI-PDSI correlation was atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in more than 45% of grid cells. In addition, the partial correlation analysis results demonstrated that elevated CO2 concentrations not only boosted vegetation growth through the fertilizer effect but also indirectly enhanced water availability by improving water use efficiency. Overall, this study highlights the important role of atmospheric CO2 in mediating the Rvw under climate change, implying a potential link between vegetation greening and drought risk.

Quantitative assessment of vegetation drought vulnerability based on multi-weighted averaging of multiple meteorological drought indices and vegetation indices

Quantitative assessment of vegetation drought vulnerability based on multi-weighted averaging of multiple meteorological drought indices and vegetation indices

Machine learning and global vegetation: random forests for downscaling and gap filling

Abstract. Drought is a devastating natural disaster, during which water shortage often manifests itself in the health of vegetation. Unfortunately, it is difficult to obtain high-resolution vegetation drought impact information that is spatially and temporally consistent. While remotely sensed products can provide part of this information, they often suffer from data gaps and limitations with respect to their spatial or temporal resolution. A persistent feature among remote-sensing products is the trade-off between the spatial resolution and revisit time: high temporal resolution is met with coarse spatial resolution and vice versa. Machine learning methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of remote-sensing and hydrological studies. However, global applications to resolve drought impacts on vegetation dynamics still need to be made available, as there is significant potential for such a product to aid with improved drought impact monitoring. To this end, this study predicted global vegetation dynamics based on the enhanced vegetation index (evi) and the popular Random forest (RF) regressor algorithm at 0.1°. We assessed the applicability of RF as a gap-filling and downscaling tool to generate global evi estimates that are spatially and temporally consistent. To do this, we trained an RF regressor with 0.1° evi data, using a host of features indicative of the water and energy balances experienced by vegetation, and evaluated the performance of this new product. Next, to test whether the RF is robust in terms of spatial resolution, we downscale the global evi: the model trained on 0.1° data is used to predict evi at a 0.01° resolution. The results show that the RF can capture global evi dynamics at both a 0.1° resolution (RMSE: 0.02–0.4) and at a finer 0.01° resolution (RMSE: 0.04–0.6). Overall errors were higher in the downscaled 0.01° product compared with the 0.1° product. Nevertheless, relative increases remained small, demonstrating that RF can be used to create downscaled and temporally consistent evi products. Additional error analysis revealed that errors vary spatiotemporally, with underrepresented land cover types and periods of extreme vegetation conditions having the highest errors. Finally, this model is used to produce global, spatially continuous evi products at both a 0.1 and 0.01° spatial resolution for 2003–2013 at an 8 d frequency.

Tree water uptake patterns across the globe.

Plant water uptake from the soil is a crucial element of the global hydrological cycle and essential for vegetation drought resilience. Yet, knowledge of how the distribution of water uptake depth (WUD) varies across species, climates, and seasons is scarce relative to our knowledge of aboveground plant functions. With a global literature review, we found that average WUD varied more among biomes than plant functional types (i.e. deciduous/evergreen broadleaves and conifers), illustrating the importance of the hydroclimate, especially precipitation seasonality, on WUD. By combining records of rooting depth with WUD, we observed a consistently deeper maximum rooting depth than WUD with the largest differences in arid regions - indicating that deep taproots act as lifelines while not contributing to the majority of water uptake. The most ubiquitous observation across the literature was that woody plants switch water sources to soil layers with the highest water availability within short timescales. Hence, seasonal shifts to deep soil layers occur across the globe when shallow soils are drying out, allowing continued transpiration and hydraulic safety. While there are still significant gaps in our understanding of WUD, the consistency across global ecosystems allows integration of existing knowledge into the next generation of vegetation process models.

Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation

Abstract. Satellite-derived agricultural drought indices can provide a complementary perspective of terrestrial vegetation trends. In addition, their integration for drought assessments under future climates is beneficial for providing more comprehensive assessments. However, satellite-derived drought indices are only available for the Earth observation era. In this study, we aim to improve the agricultural drought assessments under future climate change by applying deep learning (DL) to predict satellite-derived vegetation indices from a regional climate simulation. The simulation is produced by the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) and performed in a free evolution mode over Europe. TSMP simulations incorporate variables from underground to the top of the atmosphere (ground-to-atmosphere; G2A) and are widely used for research studies related to water cycle and climate change. We leverage these simulations for long-term forecasting and DL to map the forecast variables into normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and brightness temperature (BT) images that are not part of the simulation model. These predicted images are then used to derive different vegetation and agricultural drought indices, namely NDVI anomaly, BT anomaly, vegetation condition index (VCI), thermal condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI). The developed DL model could be integrated with data assimilation and used for downstream tasks, i.e., for estimating the NDVI and BT for periods where no satellite data are available and for modeling the impact of extreme events on vegetation responses with different climate change scenarios. Moreover, our study could be used as a complementary evaluation framework for TSMP-based climate change simulations. To ensure reliability and to assess the model’s applicability to different seasons and regions, we provide an analysis of model biases and uncertainties across different regions over the pan-European domain. We further provide an analysis about the contribution of the input variables from the TSMP model components to ensure a better understanding of the model prediction. A comprehensive evaluation of the long-term TSMP simulation using reference remote sensing data showed sufficiently good agreements between the model predictions and observations. While model performance varies on the test set between different climate regions, it achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.027 and 1.90 K with coefficient of determination (R2) scores of 0.88 and 0.92 for the NDVI and BT, respectively, at 0.11° resolution for sub-seasonal predictions. In summary, we demonstrate the feasibility of using DL on a TSMP simulation to synthesize NDVI and BT satellite images, which can be used for agricultural drought forecasting. Our implementation is publicly available at the project page (https://hakamshams.github.io/Focal-TSMP, last access: 4 April 2024).