Vegetation Drought Index Research Articles

Remote Sensing-Based Drought Monitoring in Iran’s Sistan and Balouchestan Province

Drought is a natural phenomenon that has adverse effects on agriculture, the economy, and human well-being. The primary objective of this research was to comprehensively understand the drought conditions in Sistan and Balouchestan Province from 2002 to 2017 from two perspectives: vegetation cover and hydrology. To achieve this goal, the study utilized MODIS satellite data in the first part to monitor vegetation cover as an indicator of agricultural drought. In the second part, GRACE satellite data were employed to analyze changes in groundwater resources as an indicator of hydrological drought. To assess vegetation drought, four indices were used: Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation Drought Index (VDI), Visible Infrared Drought Index (VSDI), and Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI). To validate vegetation drought indices, they were compared with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation data. The vegetation indices showed a strong, statistically significant correlation with GLDAS precipitation data in most regions of the province. Among all indices, the VHI showed the highest correlation with precipitation (moderate (0.3–0.7) in 51.7% and strong (≥0.7) in 45.82% of lands). The output of vegetation indices revealed that the study province has experienced widespread drought in recent years. The results showed that the southern and central regions of the province have faced more severe drought classes. In the second part of this research, hydrological drought monitoring was conducted in fifty third-order sub-basins located within the study province using the Total Water Storage (TWS) deficit, Drought Severity, and Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI Index). Annual average calculations of the TWS deficit over the period from April 2012 to 2016 indicated a substantial depletion of groundwater reserves in the province, amounting to a cumulative loss of 12.2 km3 Analysis results indicate that drought severity continuously increased in all study basins until the end of the study period. Studies have shown that all the studied basins are facing severe and prolonged water scarcity. Among the 50 studied basins, the Rahmatabad basin, located in the semi-arid northern regions of the province, has experienced the most severe drought. This basin has experienced five drought events, particularly one lasting 89 consecutive months and causing a reduction of more than 665.99 km3. of water in month 1, placing it in a critical condition. On the other hand, the Niskoofan Chabahar basin, located in the tropical southern part of the province near the Sea of Oman, has experienced the lowest reduction in water volume with 10 drought events and a decrease of approximately 111.214 km3. in month 1. However, even this basin has not been spared from prolonged droughts. Analysis of drought index graphs across different severity classes confirmed that all watersheds experienced drought conditions, particularly in the later years of this period. Data analysis revealed a severe water crisis in the province. Urgent and coordinated actions are needed to address this challenge. Transitioning to drought-resistant crops, enhancing irrigation efficiency, and securing water rights are essential steps towards a sustainable future.

Monitoring of Vegetation Drought Index in Laibin City Based on Landsat Multispectral Remote Sensing Data

Due to the impact of global warming, drought has caused serious damage to China’s ecological environment and social status. This article selects Laibin City in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as the research area, utilizing multispectral remote sensing data as the data source and Landsat series image data for relevant preprocessing. It calculates the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and surface temperature (LST) data for Laibin City. Based on the ecological environment and surface coverage conditions of the research area, the ratio vegetation index (RVI), normalized vegetation moisture index (NDWI), temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), and conditional vegetation temperature drought index (VTCI) were selected to calculate and invert the drought monitoring results of Laibin City. The drought monitoring results were obtained and overlaid with the vegetation area map to generate the vegetation drought monitoring results of Laibin City. Based on the climate, geography, and ecological characteristics of the monitored area in Laibin City, a specific analysis will be conducted to develop an appropriate TVDI index drought level, and generate vegetation drought level result maps for Laibin City in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Then, a detailed analysis of the vegetation drought situation in Laibin City is conducted according to time and space. Among them, in the past three years, the vegetation areas in Laibin City have experienced drought seasons mostly in summer and autumn. The interannual drought is mainly mild drought, and the proportion of areas with mild drought shows a relatively stable trend. In conclusion, TVDI proves to be a valuable tool for monitoring vegetation drought in Laibin City, offering insights for efficient water resource management strategies.

Accurate Characterization of Soil Moisture in Wheat Fields with an Improved Drought Index from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Observations

Soil moisture content is a crucial indicator for understanding the water requirements of crops. The effective monitoring of soil moisture content can provide support for irrigation decision-making and agricultural water management. Traditional ground-based measurement methods are time-consuming and labor-intensive, and point-scale monitoring cannot effectively represent the heterogeneity of soil moisture in the field. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing technology offers an efficient and convenient way to monitor soil moisture content in large fields, but airborne multispectral data are prone to spectral saturation effects, which can further affect the accuracy of monitoring soil moisture content. Therefore, we aim to construct effective drought indices for the accurate characterization of soil moisture content in winter wheat fields by utilizing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with LiDAR, thermal infrared, and multispectral sensors. Initially, we estimated wheat plant height using airborne LiDAR sensors and improved traditional spectral indices in a structured manner based on crop height. Subsequently, we constructed the normalized land surface temperature–structured normalized difference vegetation index (NLST-SNDVI) space by combining the SNDVI with land surface temperature and calculated the improved Temperature–Vegetation Drought Index (iTVDI). The results are summarized as follows: (1) the structured spectral indices exhibit better resistance to spectral saturation, making the NLST-SNDVI space closer to expectations than the NLST-NDVI space, with higher fitting accuracy for wet and dry edges; (2) the iTVDI calculated based on the NLST-SNDVI space can effectively characterize soil moisture content, showing a significant correlation with measured surface soil moisture content; (3) the global Moran’s I calculated based on iTVDI deviations ranges between 0.18 and 0.30, all reaching significant levels, indicating that iTVDI has good spatial applicability. In conclusion, this study proved the effectiveness of the drought index based on a structured vegetation index, and the results can provide support for crop moisture monitoring and irrigation decision-making in the field.

Correlation between Soil Moisture Change and Geological Disasters in E’bian Area (Sichuan, China)

E’bian Yi Autonomous County is a mineral-rich area located in a complex geological structure zone. The region experiences frequent geological disasters due to concentrated rainfall, steep terrain, and uneven vegetation cover. In particular, during the rainy season, large amounts of rainwater rapidly accumulate, increasing soil moisture and slope pressure, making landslides and debris flows more likely. Additionally, human activities such as mining, road construction, and building can alter the original geological structure, exacerbating the risk of geological disasters. According to publicly available data from the Leshan government, various types of geological disasters occurred in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, resulting in economic losses and casualties. Although some studies have focused on geological disaster issues in E’bian, these studies are often limited to specific areas or types of disasters and lack comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, due to constraints in technology, funding, and manpower, geophysical exploration, field geological exploration, and environmental ecological investigations have been challenging to carry out comprehensively, leading to insufficient and unsystematic data collection. To provide data support and monitoring for regional territorial spatial planning and geological disaster prevention and control, this paper proposes a new method to study the correlation between soil moisture changes and geological disasters. Six high-resolution Landsat remote sensing images were used as the main data sources to process the image band data, and terrain factors were extracted and classified using a digital elevation model (DEM). Meanwhile, a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index–Land Surface Temperature (NDVI-LST) feature space was constructed. The Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) was calculated to analyze the variation trend and influencing factors of soil moisture in the study area. The research results showed that the variation in soil moisture in the study area was relatively stable, and the overall soil moisture content was high (0.18 < TVDI < 0.33). However, due to the large variation in topographic relief, it could provide power and be a source basis for geological disasters such as landslide and collapse, so the inversion value of TVDI was small. The minimum and maximum values of the correlation coefficient (R2) were 0.60 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that the surface water content was relatively large, which was in good agreement with the calculated results of vegetation coverage and conducive to the restoration of ecological stability. In general, based on the characteristics of remote sensing technology and the division of soil moisture critical values, the promoting and hindering effects of soil moisture on geological hazards can be accurately described, and the research results can provide effective guidance for the prevention and control of geological hazards in this region.

Nonlinear effects of agricultural drought on vegetation productivity in the Yellow River Basin, China

Agricultural drought (AD) is the main environmental factor affecting vegetation productivity (VP) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In recent years, the nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB have attracted much attention. However, it is still unclear whether fluctuating AD will have complex nonlinear effects on VP in the YRB, and there are scant previous studies at large scale on whether there is a threshold for nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB. Therefore, this study used a newly developed agricultural drought index to explore nonlinear effects on VP revealing the nonlinear effects of AD on VP in the YRB. First, we developed a kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI) based on kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) and land surface temperature data to study the spatiotemporal variation of AD in the YRB. Second, we used GPP data from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence inversion as an indicator to explore the spatiotemporal variation of VP in the YRB. Finally, we used several statistical indicators and a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to analyze the nonlinear effect of AD on VP in the YRB. The results showed that AD decreased significantly during 2000–2020, mainly in the southeast of the Loess Plateau, while GPP increased significantly in 80.93 % of the YRB. Meanwhile, moderate and severe AD stress limited VP growth, with the negative effects gradually decreasing, while mild AD had an increasingly positive promoting effect on VP. AD stress resulted in a VP decrease of 69.78 %, and severe AD stress resulted in a VP decrease of 65.52 %, mainly distributed in the northern Loess and Ordos Plateau. AD had significant nonlinear effects on VP. The effects of moderate and severe AD on the sustained nonlinear lag of vegetation were more obvious, and those of moderate and severe AD on the nonlinear lag of VP were the largest when the lag was approximately 1 month and 7 months. The effect of AD on the nonlinear hysteresis of VP in YRB was significantly different under different vegetation types, and forests were more able to withstand longer and more severe droughts than grasslands and croplands. The results of the study provide a theoretical basis for evaluating AD and analyzing the nonlinear impact of AD on VP. This will provide scientific basis for studying the mechanism of drought effect on vegetation in other regions.

Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation

Abstract. Satellite-derived agricultural drought indices can provide a complementary perspective of terrestrial vegetation trends. In addition, their integration for drought assessments under future climates is beneficial for providing more comprehensive assessments. However, satellite-derived drought indices are only available for the Earth observation era. In this study, we aim to improve the agricultural drought assessments under future climate change by applying deep learning (DL) to predict satellite-derived vegetation indices from a regional climate simulation. The simulation is produced by the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) and performed in a free evolution mode over Europe. TSMP simulations incorporate variables from underground to the top of the atmosphere (ground-to-atmosphere; G2A) and are widely used for research studies related to water cycle and climate change. We leverage these simulations for long-term forecasting and DL to map the forecast variables into normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and brightness temperature (BT) images that are not part of the simulation model. These predicted images are then used to derive different vegetation and agricultural drought indices, namely NDVI anomaly, BT anomaly, vegetation condition index (VCI), thermal condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI). The developed DL model could be integrated with data assimilation and used for downstream tasks, i.e., for estimating the NDVI and BT for periods where no satellite data are available and for modeling the impact of extreme events on vegetation responses with different climate change scenarios. Moreover, our study could be used as a complementary evaluation framework for TSMP-based climate change simulations. To ensure reliability and to assess the model’s applicability to different seasons and regions, we provide an analysis of model biases and uncertainties across different regions over the pan-European domain. We further provide an analysis about the contribution of the input variables from the TSMP model components to ensure a better understanding of the model prediction. A comprehensive evaluation of the long-term TSMP simulation using reference remote sensing data showed sufficiently good agreements between the model predictions and observations. While model performance varies on the test set between different climate regions, it achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.027 and 1.90 K with coefficient of determination (R2) scores of 0.88 and 0.92 for the NDVI and BT, respectively, at 0.11° resolution for sub-seasonal predictions. In summary, we demonstrate the feasibility of using DL on a TSMP simulation to synthesize NDVI and BT satellite images, which can be used for agricultural drought forecasting. Our implementation is publicly available at the project page (https://hakamshams.github.io/Focal-TSMP, last access: 4 April 2024).

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation drought and its time-lag link with teleconnection factors on the Loess Plateau

Study regionLoess Plateau (LP), China Study focusThis study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation drought on the LP using an improved temperature vegetation drought index (ITVDI) and explored its time-lag link with teleconnection factors. New hydrological insights for the regionFindings indicated that: (1) ITVDI is an effective tool for vegetation drought monitoring; (2) the vegetation droughts were primarily characterized by mild to moderate intensity, with spring manifesting the most expansive drought-stressed areas (about 61.89% of pixels); (3) approximately 71.69% of the region exhibited an increasing trend in vegetation drought, particularly in the Ordos Plateau and typical agricultural zones; (4) long-term dependence in vegetation drought patterns was observed in 70.65% of the region, characterized by forest-covered areas becoming wetter, crop-covered areas getting drier, and grass-covered areas shifting from dryness to wetness; (5) the lag time between ITVDI and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was generally less than four months (approximately 71.01% of pixels), while ITVDI lagged behind Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mostly between 6 and 8 months (around 75.77% of pixels); (6) extremum correlation coefficients effectively determined the lag time for vegetation drought behind large-scale circulation factors, considering both monotonic and non-monotonic relationships. These insights contribute to drought monitoring, risk assessment, and early warning system, thereby providing valuable support for drought mitigation and management strategies in the LP and similar regions worldwide.

Study loss of vegetative cover and increased land surface temperature through remote sensing strategies under the inter-annual climate variability in Jinhua-Quzhou basin, China.

The Jinhua-Quzhou basin in China is one of the most susceptible areas to drought. Due to the loss of vegetation and great fluctuations in rainfall and surface temperature, global warming occurs. Timely, accurate, and effective drought monitoring is crucial for protecting local vegetation and determining which vegetation is most vulnerable to increased LST during the period 1982-2019. It assumes a strong correlation between loss of vegetation cover, changes in monsoon climate, drought, and increases in land surface temperature (LST).Due to significantly increased in LST, low precipitation and vegetation cover, NDVI, TVDI, VCI, and NAP are useful in characterizing drought mitigation strategies.The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and monthly precipitation anomaly percentage (NAP) can be helped to characterize drought reduction strategies. Monthly NDVI, NAP, VCI, TVDI, normalized vegetation supply water index (NVSWI), temperature condition index (TCI), vegetation health index (VHI), and heat map analysis indicate that the Jinhua-Quzhou basin experienced drought during 1984, 1993, 2000, and 2011. Seasonal SR, WVP, WS, NDVI, VCI, and NAP charts confirm that the Jinhua-Quzhou basin was affected by severe drought in 1984, which continued and led to severe droughts in 1993, 2000, and 2011. Regression analysis showed a significant positive correlation between NDVI, TVDI, VCI, and NAP values, while NVSWI, TVDI, and VHI showed positive signs of good drought monitoring strategies. The research results confirm the correlation between loss of vegetation cover and LST, which is one of the causes of global warming. The distribution of drought changed a trend indicating that compared with the Jinhua region; the Quzhou region has more droughts. The changing trend of drought has characteristics from 1982 to 2019, and there are significant differences in drought changing trends between different Jinhua-Quzhou basin areas. Overall, from 1982 to 2019, the frequency of drought showed a downward trend. We believe that these results will provide useful tools for drought management plans and play a relevant role in mitigating the effects of drought and protecting humanity from climate hazards.

Trend Prediction of Vegetation and Drought by Informer Model Based on STL-EMD Decomposition of Ha Cai Tou Dang Water Source Area in the Maowusu Sandland

To accurately forecast the future development trend of vegetation in dry areas, it is crucial to continuously monitor phenology, vegetation health indices, and vegetation drought indices over an extended period. This is because drought caused by high temperatures significantly affects vegetation. This study thoroughly investigated the spatial and temporal variations in phenological characteristics and vegetation health indices in the abdominal part of Maowusu Sandland in China over the past 20 years. Additionally, it established a linear correlation between vegetation health and temperature indices in the arid zone. To address the issue of predicting long-term trends in vegetation drought changes, we have developed a method that combines the Informer deep learning model with seasonal and Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Additionally, we have utilized the linearly correlated indices of vegetation health and meteorological data spanning 20 years to predict the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). The study’s findings indicate that over the 20-year observation period, there was an upward trend in NDVI, accompanied by a decrease in both the frequency and severity of droughts. Additionally, the STL-EMD-Informer model successfully predicted the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 1.16%) of the future trend in vegetation drought changes for the next decade. This suggests that the overall health of vegetation is expected to continue improving during that time. This work examined the plant growth circumstances in dry locations from several angles and developed a complete analytical method for predicting long-term droughts. The findings provide a strong scientific basis for ecological conservation and vegetation management in arid regions.

Optimization of multi-dimensional indices for kiwifruit orchard soil moisture content estimation using UAV and ground multi-sensors

Accurately estimating of soil moisture content (SMC) is essential for effective irrigation water management and optimizing plant water productivity. Recent advancements in multi-sensor platforms and ensemble learning (EL) algorithms such as the use of UAV-based multispectral (MS) and thermal infrared (TIR) images, have enabled precise mapping of SMC at the field level. The purpose of this study is to optimize the multi-dimensional (n-D) index set and EL model to achieve accurate inversion mapping of SMC in the 0–60 cm root zone at a kiwifruit orchard during the fruit growth period (May-Sep 2022). The n-D index set was computed using kiwifruit canopy MS and TIR data from UAV along with in-field temperature data (air temperature [Ta], kiwifruit canopy temperature [Tc], soil temperature [Ts], and Ta-Tc, Ta-Ts, Tc-Ts). The primary findings of this study are as follows: (1) The Three-Dimensional Drought Index (TDDI), Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI), and Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) demonstrated superior performance in capturing temporal variations of root zone SMC compared to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI). (2) The optimal Categorical Boosting (Catboost) model with two optimal TDDIs (TDDI22: (Tc-Ts)-EVI10,6,2-CWSI space and TDDI7: Tc-NDVI7,3-CWSI space), exhibited exceptional performance for SMC estimation, with determination coefficient (R2) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.966 ± 0.010 and 0.046 ± 0.003%, respectively. (3) The planted-by-planted mapping performed well in estimating root zone SMC at different growth stages and under different irrigation treatments, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.936 ± 0.074 (p < 0.001). This study demonstrated that the integration of multi-sensor indicators and EL models can improve the accuracy of SMC estimation due to its robust adaptability to various field conditions. Furthermore, the planted-grid-based SMC mapping framework can be considered as a valuable approach for monitoring dynamic SMC, facilitating informed irrigation decisions at the individual planting grid.

Spatiotemporal analysis of wildfire in the Tigris and Euphrates basin: A remote sensing based wildfire potential mapping

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the occurrence of wildfires in rangelands and forests worldwide. Such events are even more critical in arid and semi-arid regions with sparse rangeland and forest covers. In this paper, we studied how wildfires behave and what drives them, and used a random forest algorithm to map wildfire potential in the Tigris and Euphrates basin. A stratified random sampling method was used to collect 53,053 wildfire points and an equal number of non-wildfire points in rangelands and forests of the basin between 2000 and 2019. The spatial-temporal behavior of environmental parameters affecting wildfire potential was analyzed. Among them, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, vegetation condition index, drought index, actual evapotranspiration, and reference evapotranspiration were identified as the main drivers of wildfires. The performance of our wildfire potential mapping model was compared with the Fire Weather Index (FWI). Our method showed superior results with an overall accuracy of 96% and a kappa coefficient of 93% compared to the FWI which had an overall accuracy of 58% and a kappa coefficient of 17.5%.

The research of common drought indexes for the application to the drought monitoring in the region of Jin Sha river

Abstract Based on MODIS data from 2010 to 2020 and precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture data of 33 meteorological stations in Jinsha River Basin from 1990 to 2020, the applicability of different remote sensing drought indexes in Jinsha River Basin was studied. These indexes include temperature condition index (TCI) and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), the results of vegetation condition index (VCI), vegetation supply water index (VSWI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and standardized precipitation index (SPI) showed that TCI and TVDI, VSWI and TCI, VSWI and TVDI, VSWI and TVDI, VSWI and TVDI, VSWI and TVDI, VSWI and TVDI, SPEI and SPI, respectively. The correlation between VSWI and VCI was significant. VCI had the lowest correlation with SPEI and SPI. The average correlation coefficient between TCI and VSWI was similar. The correlation between VSWI, SPEI, and SPI was low in January, March, and October and reached significant or above levels in other months. TVDI had the highest correlation with SPEI and SPI. TVDI was significantly correlated with soil moisture every month of the year, indicating that TVDI can be effectively used for remote sensing drought monitoring in Jinsha River Basin and has strong adaptability. According to the temporal and spatial analysis of drought monitoring in the Jinsha River Basin by TVDI, the drought areas in December and January are mainly located in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River Basin, while the light drought areas are mainly located in the upper and lower reaches of the Jinsha River Basin. From March to June, the risk of severe drought increased in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River, and the moderate drought area in the Jinsha River Basin also increased. The drought from July to November was weaker than in the previous months. The moderate drought area is mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River, and the mild drought area is mainly distributed in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River Basin.

A comprehensive drought index based on spatial principal component analysis and its application in northern China.

In the background of the greenhouse effect, drought events occurred more frequently. How to monitor drought events scientifically and efficiently is very urgent at present. In this study, we employed the Vegetation Water Supply Index (VSWI), Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI), and Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) as individual variables to construct a composite drought index (CDI) using spatial principal component analysis (SPCA). The validity of CDI was assessed using gross primary productivity (GPP), soil moisture (SM), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI). CDI was subsequently used for drought monitoring in northern China from 2011 to 2020. The results showed that (1) at a 99% confidence level, the Pearson correlation coefficients between CDI and GPP was 0.72, while the value between CDI and SM was 0.69, which indicated the relationship between SM, GPP, and CDI was significant. (2) We compared CDI with other variables such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Crop Drought Index (CDI) and found that the monitoring result of CDI was more sensitive, which indicated that the proposed CDI had a better effect in local drought monitoring. (3) The results of CDI showed that the drought status in the northern region during 2011-2020 lasted from March to October, and the high severe drought period generally occurs in March-May and September-October, with low severe drought in June-August.

Temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for drought monitoring in the Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2019.

Drought monitoring is crucial for assessing and mitigating the impacts of water scarcity on various sectors and ecosystems. Although traditional drought monitoring relies on soil moisture data, remote sensing technology has have significantly augmented the capabilities for drought monitoring. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy and applicability of two temperature vegetation drought indices (TVDI), TVDINDVI and TVDIEVI, constructed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) vegetation indices for drought monitoring. Using Guangdong Province as a case, enhanced versions of these indices, developed through Savitzky-Golay filtering and terrain correction were employed. Additionally, Pearson correlation analysis and F-tests were utilized to determine the suitability of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in correlation with TVDINDVI and TVDIEVI. The results show that TVDINDVI had more meteorological stations passing both significance test levels (P<0.001 and P<0.05) compared to TVDIEVI, and the average Pearson'R correlation coefficient was slightly higher than that of TVDIEVI, indicating that TVDINDVI responded better to drought in Guangdong Province. Our conclusion reveals that drought-prone regions in Guangdong Province are concentrated in the Leizhou Peninsula in southern Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta in central Guangdong. We also analyzed the phenomenon of winter-spring drought in Guangdong Province over the past 20 years. The area coverage of different drought levels was as follows: mild drought accounted for 42% to 64.6%, moderate drought accounted for 6.96% to 27.92%, and severe drought accounted for 0.002% to 1.84%. In 2003, the winter-spring drought in the entire province was the most severe, with a drought coverage rate of up to 84.2%, while in 2009, the drought area coverage was the lowest, at 49.02%. This study offers valuable insights the applicability of TVDI, and presents a viable methodology for drought monitoring in Guangdong Province, underlining its significance to agriculture, environmental conservation, and socio-economic facets in the region.

A novel composite drought index combining precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration used for drought monitoring in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Single drought index such as Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Evapotranspiration Condition Index (ETCI) and so on, has a limited capability to indicate drought state. It has been proved that the composite drought index proposed by integrating multiple single drought indices can indicate and predict drought state more efficiently and accurately. This paper presents the Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Drought Index (PTEDI) combining the PCI, TCI and ETCI. The three-dimensional Euclidean PCI-TCI-ETCI space is built, and the PTEDI is defined as the magnitude of the vector in the PCI-TCI-ETCI space. To verify the rationality and effectiveness of the PTEDI as a desired drought index in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, it is compared with the PCI, TCI, ETCI and PCACDI (Principal Component Analysis Combined Drought Index), and is evaluated with the Drought Affected/Disaster Area (DAA/DDA) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). The results indicate that the PTEDI outperforms the PCI, TCI, ETCI and PCACDI, and is highly correlated with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) (R = 0.61), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) (R= 0.56), and NPP (R = 0.56). The time series of the PTEDI and four indices (SPI-1, SMCI, Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) and Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI)) exhibits good spatial consistency. The PTEDI has a negative correlation with the DAA/DDA (R < −0.6). Furthermore, to illustrate the applicability of the PTEDI, the drought spatiotemporal variation is analyzed by taking it as a drought index. At the monthly scale, moderate drought occurs most frequently in March and July. At the annual scale, the PTEDI fluctuates between 0.34 and 0.60 without obvious periodicity, and the study area is mainly characterized by mild drought. Moreover, the drought evolution is analyzed by using the timing analysis methods. In conclusion, the PTEDI can be applied to monitor drought effectively.

Early crop yield prediction for agricultural drought monitoring using drought indices, remote sensing, and machine learning techniques

Abstract The unpredictability of crop yield due to severe weather events such as drought and extreme heat continues to be a key worry. The present study evaluated six meteorological and three Landsat satellite-based vegetation drought indices from 1986 to 2019 in the drought-prone-semi-arid Saurashtra region of Gujarat (India). Cotton and groundnut crop yield prediction models were developed using multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network with MLP, and random forest (RF). The models performed crop yield estimation at two timescales, i.e., 75 days after sowing and 105 days after sowing. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index/reconnaissance drought index among meteorological drought indices, normalized difference vegetation anomaly index/vegetation condition index, and normalized difference water index anomaly were chosen as best highest correlations with crop yields. The RF-based models were found most efficient in predicting the cotton and groundnut yield of Saurashtra with R2 ranging from 0.77 to 0.92, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 71 to 90%, and root-mean-square error ranging from 80 to 133 kg/ha for cotton and 299 to 453 kg/ha for groundnut. This study demonstrated the method for making several decisions based on early crop yield prediction including timely drought mitigation measures.

Ecological drought monitoring of Inner Mongolia vegetation growing season based on kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI).

Ecological drought monitoring is important for regional status assessment and protection of water resources. In this study, we constructed a new ecological drought index, the kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI), by using the kernel normalized vegetation index (kNDVI) to improve the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) in Inner Mongolia. We further analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological drought in Inner Mongolia during 2000-2022 and the future trend of ecological drought by using segmented linear regression model, Theil-Sen median, Mann-Kendall test, and Hurst index. The results showed that kTVDI performed better in monitoring ecological drought than TVDI. From 2000 to 2022, kTVDI showed a decreasing trend in the growing season in Inner Mongolia, but the change was not significant, and a sudden change occurred in 2016, and the wetting trend after the sudden change was more obvious. During the study period, ecological drought in 23.6% of the areas of Inner Mongolia showed an aggravating trend, and ecological drought was alleviated in 46.5% of the area. In the future, ecological drought would be exacerbated in the eastern part but alleviated in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Future Predictions of Soil Salinization in the Werigan–Kuqa River Delta Oasis of China

Soil salinization is a serious global issue; by 2050, without intervention, 50% of the cultivated land area will be affected by salinization. Therefore, estimating and predicting future soil salinity is crucial for preventing soil salinization and investigating potential arable land resources. In this study, several machine learning methods (random forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)) were used to estimate the soil salinity in the Werigan–Kuqa River Delta Oasis region of China from 2001 to 2021. The cellular automata (CA)–Markov model was used to predict soil salinity types from 2020 to 2050. The LightGBM method exhibited the highest accuracy, and the overall prediction accuracy of the methods had the following order: LightGBM &gt; RF &gt; GBRT &gt; XGBoost. Moderately saline, severely saline, and saline soils were dominant in the east and south of the research area, while non-saline and mildly saline soils were widely distributed in the inner oasis area. A marked decreasing trend in the soil salt content was observed from 2001 to 2021, with a decreasing rate of 4.28 g/kg·10 a−1. The primary change included the conversion of mildly and severely saline soil types to non-saline soil. The generalized difference vegetation index (51%), Bio (30%), and temperature vegetation drought index (27%) had the greatest influence, followed by variables associated with soil attributes (soil organic carbon and soil organic carbon stock) and terrain (topographic wetness index, slope, aspect, curvature, and topographic relief index). Overall, the CA–Markov simulation resulted exhibited suitable accuracy (kappa = 0.6736). Furthermore, areas with non-saline and mildly saline soils will increase while areas with other salinity levels will continue to decrease from 2020 to 2050. From 2046 to 2050, numerous areas with saline soil will be converted to non-saline soil. These results can provide support for salinization control, agricultural production, and soil investigations in the future. The gradual decline in soil salinization in the research area in the past 20 years may have resulted from large-scale land reclamation, which has turned saline alkali land into arable land and is also related to effective measures taken by the local government to control salinization.

Validation Analysis of Drought Monitoring Based on FY-4 Satellite

Droughts are natural disasters that have significant implications for agricultural production and human livelihood. Under climate change, the drought process is accelerating, such as the intensification of flash droughts. The efficient and quick monitoring of droughts has increasingly become a crucial measure in responding to extreme drought events. We utilized multi-imagery data from the geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4A within one day; implemented the daily Maximum Value Composite (MVC) method to minimize interference from the clouds, atmosphere, and anomalies; and developed a method for calculating the daily-scale Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI), which is a dryness index. Three representative drought events (Yunnan Province, Guangdong Province, and the Huanghuai region) from 2021 to 2022 were selected for validation, respectively. We evaluated the spatial and temporal effects of the TVDI with the Soil Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) and the Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI). The results show that the TVDI has stronger negative correlations with the MCI and SRHI in moderate and severe drought events. Meanwhile, the TVDI and SRHI exhibited similar trends. The trends of drought areas identified by the TVDI, SRHI, and MCI were consistent, while the drought area identified by the TVDI was slightly higher than the SRHI. Yunnan Province has the most concentrated distribution, which is mostly between 16.93 and 25.22%. The spatial distribution of the TVDI by FY-4A and MODIS is generally consistent, and the differences in severe drought areas may be attributed to disparities in the NDVI. Furthermore, the TVDI based on FY-4A provides a higher number of valid pixels (437 more pixels in the Huanghuai region) than that based on MODIS, yielding better overall drought detection. The spatial distribution of the TVDI between FY-4A and Landsat-8 is also consistent. FY-4A has the advantage of acquiring a complete image on a daily basis, and lower computational cost in regional drought monitoring. The results indicate the effectiveness of the FY-4A TVDI in achieving daily-scale drought monitoring, with a larger number of valid pixels and better spatial consistency with station indices. This study provides a new solution for drought monitoring using a geostationary meteorological satellite from different spatial–temporal perspectives to facilitate comprehensive drought monitoring.

Relationship between carbon pool changes and environmental changes in arid and semi-arid steppe—A two decades study in Inner Mongolia, China

As the arid and semi-arid grassland with the most extensive distribution area in northern China, the carbon stored in Inner Mongolia (IM) grassland is highly susceptible to environmental changes. With the global warming and drastic climate changes, exploring the relationship between carbon pool changes and environmental changes and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity is necessary. This study estimates the carbon pool distribution of IM grassland during 2003–2020 by combining the measured below ground biomass (BGB) dataset, measured soil organic carbon (SOC) dataset, multi-source satellite remote sensing data products, and random forest regression modeling method. It also discusses the variation trend of BGB/SOC and its correlation with critical environmental factors, vegetation condition factors and drought index. The results show that the BGB/SOC in IM grassland was stable during 2003–2020, with a weak upward trend. The correlation analysis reveals that high temperature and drought environment were unfavorable for developing vegetation roots and would lead to a decrease in BGB. Furthermore, temperature rise, soil moisture decrease, and drought adversely effected grassland biomass and SOC in areas with low altitude, high SOC density, suitable temperature and humidity. However, in areas with relatively poor natural environments and relatively low SOC content, SOC was not significantly affected by environmental deterioration and even showed an accumulation trend. These conclusions provide directions for SOC treatment and protection. In areas where SOC is abundant, it is important to reduce carbon loss caused by environmental changes. However, in areas with poor SOC, due to the high carbon storage potential of grasslands, carbon storage can be improved through scientifically managing grazing and protecting vulnerable grasslands.