Vegetation Changes Research Articles

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types.

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Vegetation Changes and Dynamics of the Climate Variables in Southern Thailand over the Past 1500 Years

Vegetation Changes and Dynamics of the Climate Variables in Southern Thailand over the Past 1500 Years

Soil fungal and bacterial communities reflect differently tundra vegetation state transitions and soil physico-chemical properties.

Strong disturbances may induce ecosystem transitions into new alternative states that sustain through plant-soil interactions, such as the transition of dwarf shrub-dominated into graminoid-dominated vegetation by herbivory in tundra. Little evidence exists on soil microbial communities in alternative states, and along the slow process of ecosystem return into the predisturbance state. We analysed vegetation, soil microbial communities and activities as well as soil physico-chemical properties in historical reindeer enclosures in northernmost Finland in the following plot types: control heaths in the surrounding tundra; graminoid-dominated; 'shifting'; and recovered dwarf shrub-dominated vegetation inside enclosures. Soil fungal communities followed changes in vegetation, whereas bacterial communities were more affected by soil physico-chemical properties. Graminoid plots were characterized by moulds, pathotrophs and dark septate endophytes. Ericoid mycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi were typical for control and recovered plots. Soil microbial communities inside the enclosures showed historical contingency, as their spatial variation was high in recovered plots despite the vegetation being more homogeneous. Self-maintaining feedback loops between plant functional types, soil microbial communities, and carbon and nutrient mineralization act effectively to stabilize alternative vegetation states, but once predisturbance vegetation reestablishes itself, soil microbial communities and physico-chemical properties return back towards their predisturbance state.

Short-Term Climatic Oscillations in the Central Region of the East-European Plain at the Beginning of the Holocene Based on Palynological Studies of Lacustrine Deposits

The Preboreal (11.75–10.70 ka BP) is still the least paleogeographically studied time interval in the central part of the East European Plain. High-resolution multi-proxy studies of lacustrine sediments at the Seltso site located in the Desna River floodplain (Dnieper River basin) were conducted. Radiocarbon dating, loss-on-ignition determination, sedimentological and palynological studies and identification of Non-Pollen Palynomorphs in lacustrine sediments allow us to reconstruct changes in vegetation caused by rapid warming at the Younger Dryas–Holocene boundary, short-term climatic fluctuations within the Preboreal and subsequent resumption of warming. Initial Preboreal warming reached its maximum at about 11.5 ka BP when a relatively dry continental climate existed. Between 11.4 and 11.2 ka BP, a short-term cooling corresponding to the Preboreal Oscillation in Greenland occurred, as indicated by a significant reduction of woody vegetation and expansion of open plant communities. In the Late Preboreal, approximately 11.2–10.7 ka BP, warming resumed, which was accompanied by a decrease in the climate continentality. Comparison with high-resolution lithological and palynological data from eight reliably dated sections of the central East European Plain indicates that in northwestern and central Europe, the impact of the Preboreal Oscillation cooling on the vegetation and the lake ecosystems’ development was probably somewhat stronger.

Upscaling vascular aboveground biomass and topsoil moisture of subarctic fens from Unoccupied Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to satellite level

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing rapid changes in vegetation composition and productivity due to global warming. Tundra wetlands are especially susceptible to these changes, which may trigger shifts in soil moisture dynamics. It is therefore essential to accurately map plant biomass and topsoil moisture. In this study, we mapped total, wood, and leaf above ground biomass and topsoil moisture in subarctic tundra wetlands located between Norway and Finland by linking models derived from Unoccupied Aerial Vehicles with multiple satellite data sources using the Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm. The most accurate predictions for topsoil moisture (R2 = 0.73) used a set of red edge-based vegetation indices with a spatial resolution of 20 m per pixel. On the contrary, wood biomass showed the lowest accuracies across all tested models (R2 = 0.38). We found a trade-off between the spatial resolution and the performance of upscaling models, where smaller pixel sizes generally led to lower accuracies. However, we were able to compensate for reduced accuracy at smaller pixel sizes using Copernicus phenology metrics. A modelling uncertainty assessment revealed that the uncertainty of predictions increased with decreasing pixel sizes and increasing number of co-predictors. Our approach could improve efforts to map and monitor changes in vegetation at regional to pan-Arctic scales.

Missing Landscapes: A Geohistory of Parkland Landscapes in Northwestern Morocco

Northwestern Morocco is characterized by highly anthropized landscapes under the combined effect of agricultural intensification, resource overexploitation, urbanization, and tourism, but also local reforestation. Reconstructing the recent changes in vegetation in the region of the lower valley of the Loukkos river near Larache and their relationship to the settlement history are particularly helpful for understanding the processes at work within the landscape construction. The geohistorical approach combines paleoenvironmental, documentary, and historical data. The last few centuries have seen the emergence of wooded stands, in which cork oaks are a structural element. As forests were retreating, parklands intended for agriculture, agroforestry, and herding, like the Spanish dehesa and Portuguese montado, began to emerge. Nearly all of them have disappeared today, but we can identify their legacy and evaluate their cultural significance through comparing them with their counterparts in the Iberian Peninsula, but also in other areas of Morocco. Their deep historical roots give this landscape an evolving heritage character that is directly linked to the communities’ lifestyles, culture, and history.

Seventy-five years of vegetation change after fire in Tasmanian alpine heathland

Context Alpine ecosystems are threatened by warming and an associated increase in fire frequency. There is a gap in our knowledge of succession in Tasmanian alpine heath more than 50 years after fire. The literature suggests that the alpine successional progression usually involves decreasing rates of change, decreasing differences among fire ages, ongoing transitions among shrub species, ongoing transitions from some lifeforms/species to others, and that warming results in increases in species richness. Aims We test for these tendencies up to 75 years from fire in alpine vegetation on kunanyi/Mount Wellington, Tasmania, Australia. Methods We documented the changes in vegetation structure and composition between 1998 and 2022 in plots on either side of an alpine fire boundary in the alpine heathland and used earlier data and observations to extend the record of change after fire to 75 years. We put these changes in the context of the only area of alpine vegetation that was not burnt in 1947 or later. Key results The area last burnt in 1947 exhibited declines in all lifeform covers between 1998 and 2022. All lifeforms except tall shrubs and mat shrubs declined in cover in the area last burnt in 1962. By 2022, shrub cover in the 1962-burnt area had not attained equivalence with the area last burnt in 1947. Herbs had the most dramatic decline in both fire-age classes. There were few shrub seedlings in 2022. All but six taxa, three being exotic, were observed in both the plots and previous broader surveys. Increases in species richness caused by the upward migration of lower-elevation species were not observed. The long-unburnt patch lacked the major dominant of the 1947-burnt plots, namely Orites acicularis, and was dominated by a gymnosperm absent from most of the mountain. Conclusions Succession follows the initial floristic composition model. The differences in trajectories from the 1947 and 1962 fires could possibly be due to desiccation or abrasion damage from increasing wind speeds and temperatures. There are strong indications of further potential change in the absence of fire. Implications The slow rate of recovery and its on-going nature emphasise the importance of keeping fire out of this vegetation type.

The spatial variation and drivers of soil δ13C in an alpine-gorge region on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Soil stable carbon isotope (soil δ13C) can reflect soil carbon metabolic processes and record environmental and vegetation change information, so mapping the spatial distribution of soil δ13C (isoscapes of soil δ13C) can help us better understand the spatial variability of ecosystem carbon cycles. However, efficient approaches for obtaining the isoscapes of soil δ13C remain challenging, especially in mountainous areas with complex terrain. A total of 150 soil samples were collected and their soil δ13C was measured to investigate the spatial variation of soil δ13C in an alpine-gorge region on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau which is characterized by complex terrain. Four prediction methods included ordinary kriging interpolation, multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were selected and compared to find the best prediction model for mapping the isoscapes of soil δ13C. The pathways of vegetation, topography, soil, and spatial factors influencing the spatial variability of soil δ13C were explored using variance partitioning analysis and structural equation model. The soil δ13C was significantly different among vegetation types, and ranged from −27.155‰ to −9.647‰. The spatial heterogeneity of soil δ13C showed moderate variation, and was dominated by spatial structural factors. The GWR model had higher prediction accuracy in the modeling soil δ13C in comparison to other models. Soil carbon to nitrogen ratio and normalized difference vegetation index were the main factors determining the spatial variability of soil δ13C, and other topographic and soil factors indirectly regulated the spatial distribution of soil δ13C by influencing these two factors. Our results provided a useful tool (GWR model) for mapping the isoscapes of soil δ13C and explored the factors controlling the spatial variability of soil δ13C in the alpine-gorge region on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which are important for an in-depth understanding of soil carbon cycling in mountain ecosystems.

Hydrological evolution and differential response of the eco-environment recorded in Lake Maozangtianchi, eastern Qilian Mountains, over the last 900 years

The Qilian Mountains (QLM) act as an “ecological security barrier” in western China, impacting the downstream ecosystems and water resource utilization. However, the hydrological evolution of the QLM during the last millennium remains controversial, and their ecological response to climate change is poorly understood. We present a pH record based on the brGDGTs (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) of a 14C-dated sediment core from Lake Maozangtianchi in the QLM. We combined this record with element contents determined by scanning XRF and grain size to reconstruct the summer monsoon precipitation variability over the last 900 years. We also reconstructed the history of eco-environmental changes from the total n-alkane contents. On centennial scales, local precipitation exhibited peaks during the intervals of 1100‒1300 CE and 1750‒2000 CE, as well as between 1400‒1750 CE. Additionally, abrupt decreases in precipitation occurred during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1300‒1400 CE). This pattern coherent with other hydroclimatic records from the monsoonal margin of northern China, likely resulted from the combined impact of the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation on tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures and the meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, a coupled relationship between plant biomass in the Lake Maozangtianchi watershed and fluctuations in monsoon precipitation was observed, with higher plant biomass during 1100‒1200 CE, 1750‒1900 CE, and 1950‒2000 CE, and lower biomass during 1200‒1400 CE and 1900‒1950 CE. However, during 1400‒1750 CE, plant biomass exhibited a minor increasing trend, deviating from its usual correlation with monsoon precipitation. Despite precipitation usually being the primary climatic factor influencing plant biomass in the QLM, during the LIA, nutrients transported by dust and decreased evapotranspiration became pivotal in bolstering plant growth. Our research emphasizes the significant moderating effects of exogenic dust on vegetation changes in alpine ecosystems.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation over cloudy areas in Southwest China retrieved from four NDVI products

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is the most commonly used index for assessing vegetation. However, significant differences among various satellite datasets, complex terrain, and the impact of clouds on optical sensors limit vegetation change assessment based on NDVI. To address these issues, this study utilizes multi-source satellite data (GIMMS3g NDVI, CDR AVHRR NDVI, SPOT NDVI, and MODIS NDVI) to monitor vegetation dynamics at different time scales from 1990 to 2020 in Sichuan Province, China. The results indicate that over time, NDVI values from the four NDVI products in Sichuan Province have shown an upward trend. There are certain differences in the spatial distribution and spatial heterogeneity of the change rate of NDVI values among the four NDVI products at different time scales, and the differences are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin (SB) and the Western Sichuan alpine plateau region (WS). Compared with the other three NDVI products, GIMMS NDVI has the highest value but the smallest increase during the study period. The SPOT NDVI value is the smallest, but the increase is relatively large. However, within the overlapping period of the four NDVI datasets, only the annual average of CDR AVHRR NDVI showed a downward trend (slope2000–2013 = −0.0001·a−1). The annual fluctuation of CDR AVHRR NDVI is the smallest, and compared to other NDVI datasets, its correlation with climate factors shows significantly weaker spatial variability. Moreover, the ability of CDR AVHRR NDVI to distinguish different vegetation land cover types is significantly poor (STD = 0.045). The findings of this study will provide a reference for further research on vegetation changes in Sichuan Province and NDVI reconstruction in cloudy areas.

Archaeology in the Fourth Dimension: Studying Landscapes with Multitemporal PlanetScope Satellite Data

AbstractFor the last seven years, PlanetScope satellites have started near-daily imaging of parts of the Earth’s surface, making high-density multitemporal, multispectral, 3-m pixel imagery accessible to researchers. Multitemporal satellite data enables landscape archaeologists to examine changes in environmental conditions at time scales ranging from daily to decadal. This kind of temporal resolution can accentuate landscape features on the ground by de-emphasizing non-permanent signatures caused by seasonal or even daily changes in vegetation. We argue that the availability of high spatial and temporal resolution multispectral imagery from Planet Inc. will enable new approaches to studying archaeological visibility in landscapes. While palimpsests are discrete overlapping layers of material accumulation, multitemporal composites capture cyclical and seasonal time and can be used to interpret past landscape histories at multiple scales. To illustrate this perspective, we present three case studies using PlanetScope imagery in tropical environments on the Indian Ocean islands of Madagascar, Mauritius, and Zanzibar.

Changes in terrestrial water storage in the Three-North region of China over 2003–2021: Assessing the roles of climate and vegetation restoration

Large-scale vegetation restoration has markedly enhanced ecosystem services in the Three-North (TN) region, concurrently exacerbating the pre-existing water resource crisis stemming from climate change in this arid domain. However, the specific contributions of climate and vegetation changes to the evolution of water resources in the TN region have yet to be elucidated. This study leverages data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-on mission (GRACE-FO), specifically the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from 2003 to 2021. We identify two TWSA rising (TWSA_rⅠ and TWSA_rⅡ) and two declining (TWSA_dⅠ and TWSA_dⅡ) hotspots in the TN region. By exploring the relative importance of climate drivers and vegetation dynamics in influencing the temporal dynamics of TWSA, we found that vegetation restoration assumes a more pivotal role than climate factors in 45.2% of the total area within the identified hotspots, predominantly evident in TWSA declining hotspots. The heightened TWSA in TWSA_rⅠ and TWSA_rⅡ primarily stems from precipitation recharge, with precipitation-dominated areas constituting 19.3% of the area within the identified hotspots. Potential evapotranspiration dominates TWSA changes in only 4.6% of the region within the identified hotspots, primarily scattered in TWSA_dⅠ and TWSA_dⅡ. Furthermore, a comparative assessment of soil moisture and groundwater responses to environmental factors indicates that water storage at shallower layers is more responsive to climate factors, while the impacts of vegetation changes on TWSA are more discernibly reflected in water storage at deeper layers. These findings furnish scientific guidance for future ecological restoration planning and sustainable water resources management.

Differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during extreme events on the Chinese loess plateau

Extreme, dry events have major impacts on vegetation phenology worldwide. However, the differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during these extreme events remain unclear. We investigated the response of vegetation phenology to climatic factors during extreme events in arid and semi-arid regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau, using the climate water deficit method, to identify extremely dry and wet events. The results revealed that extremely wet events extended the vegetation growth periods in addition to global warming, whereas extremely dry events did not completely counteract this effect. During different extreme events, phenological changes in vegetation on the Loess Plateau were primarily influenced by the interactive effects of climatic factors. During extremely dry events, a 100 mm increase in precipitation advanced the start of the season by 3.0, 9.2, and 16.7 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. During extremely wet events, a 1 °C rise in temperature delayed the end of the season by 1.6, 0.6, and 3.8 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. These findings provide crucial guidance for improving predictions of plant phenology changes under extreme climatic events and unraveling biosphere–atmosphere feedback cycles.

Nonlinear time effects of vegetation response to climate change: Evidence from Qilian Mountain National Park in China

Vegetation responses to climate change are typically nonlinear with varied time effects, yet current research lacks comprehensiveness and precise definitions, hindering a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study focuses on the mountain-type Qilian Mountains National Park (QMNP), investigating the characteristics and patterns of these nonlinear time effects using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on MODIS-NDVI, growing season temperature, and precipitation data. The results show that 1) The time effects of climate change on vegetation exhibit significant spatial variations, differing across vegetation types and topographic conditions. Accounting for optimal time effects can increase the explanatory power of climate on vegetation change by 6.8 %. Precipitation responses are mainly characterized by time-lag and time-accumulation effects, notably in meadows and steppes, while temperature responses are largely cumulative, especially in steppes. The altitude and slope significantly influence the pattern of vegetation response to climate, particularly in areas with high altitudes and steep slopes. 2) There is a significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation growth and both precipitation and temperature, with the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and vegetation being stronger than that with temperature, particularly in the western and central regions of the park. Different vegetation types exhibit significant variations in their response to climate change, with deserts and steppes being more sensitive to precipitation. 3) Precipitation is the primary driver of vegetation change in the QMNP, particularly for high-elevation vegetation and herbaceous vegetation. The complex temporal patterns of vegetation response to climate change in the QMNP not only deepen the understanding of the intricate relationship between regional vegetation and climate variability but also provide a methodological reference for global studies on vegetation responses to climate change.

Late Quaternary Araucaria forest and Campos (grasslands) vegetation dynamics inferred from a high-resolution pollen record from Lagoa Dourada in southern Brazil

Forest-grassland mosaics are ecosystems with sharp contrasts. Factors controlling their heterogeneity have interested researchers worldwide. To date, only few natural remains of these ecosystems exist, such as the Araucaria and Campos region in southern Brazil. Different paleoecological studies elucidate the vegetation and climate history of the region, documenting shifts between forests and grasslands since the Middle Holocene. However, uncertainty remains about whether system shifts were sudden or gradual and on the importance of driving factors and triggers such as climate, change and disturbance. We reconstruct the paleoecological history of the Araucaria forest-grassland mosaics in Paraná state in decadal to sub-decadal resolution during the Holocene. High resolution pollen analysis documents that in this region the expansion of woodlands occurred gradually while sedimentological analyses reveal stepwise shifts of the precipitation regime of the region. During the Early Holocene (10300-8300 cal yr BP), the landscape was characterized by grassland-dominated Campos vegetation, with sporadic occurrences of arboreal taxa. Araucaria angustifolia was present initially in small abundances. In the Mid-Holocene (8300-4000 cal BP), a transition to more humid conditions fostered the development of woodlands. The establishment of Araucaria angustifolia near the lake occurred around 7300 cal yr BP, together with a general expansion of woodlands. In the Late Holocene (4000-150 cal yr BP), Araucaria angustifolia became dominant within forest patches with a second stepwise expansion around 3300 cal yr BP. The onset of Euro-American land use during the last two centuries intensified erosion and altered species composition, reflected in sediment and pollen data. In addition, Lagoa Dourada documents vegetational changes that seem to coincide with the 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age.

Controls and relationships of soil organic carbon abundance and persistence vary across pedo-climatic regions.

One of the largest uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle is the timing and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) response to climate and vegetation change. This uncertainty prevents models from adequately capturing SOC dynamics and challenges the assessment of management and climate change effects on soils. Reducing these uncertainties requires simultaneous investigation of factors controlling the amount (SOC abundance) and duration (SOC persistence) of stored C. We present a global synthesis of SOC and radiocarbon profiles (nProfile = 597) to assess the timescales of SOC storage. We use a combination of statistical and depth-resolved compartment models to explore key factors controlling the relationships between SOC abundance and persistence across pedo-climatic regions and with soil depth. This allows us to better understand (i) how SOC abundance and persistence covary across pedo-climatic regions and (ii) how the depth dependence of SOC dynamics relates to climatic and mineralogical controls on SOC abundance and persistence. We show that SOC abundance and persistence are differently related; the controls on these relationships differ substantially between major pedo-climatic regions and soil depth. For example, large amounts of persistent SOC can reflect climatic constraints on soils (e.g., in tundra/polar regions) or mineral absorption, reflected in slower decomposition and vertical transport rates. In contrast, lower SOC abundance can be found with lower SOC persistence (e.g., in highly weathered tropical soils) or higher SOC persistence (e.g., in drier and less productive regions). We relate variable patterns of SOC abundance and persistence to differences in the processes constraining plant C input, microbial decomposition, vertical C transport and mineral SOC stabilization potential. This process-oriented grouping of SOC abundance and persistence provides a valuable benchmark for global C models, highlighting that pedo-climatic boundary conditions are crucial for predicting the effects of climate change and soil management on future C abundance and persistence.

Holocene vegetation and climatic changes in the coastal tropical rainforests of Nigeria

Holocene vegetation and climatic changes in the coastal tropical rainforests of Nigeria

Ungulate niche partitioning and behavioural plasticity of aurochs in Early Holocene southern Scandinavia revealed by stable isotope analysis of bone collagen

This study examines the impact of the extensive climatic and environmental changes associated with the Early Holocene on the feeding ecology of aurochs, European bison, red deer, and Eurasian elk in southern Scandinavia from radiocarbon dates and analysis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. Molecular sex information is utilised in the study of aurochs to understand the underlying reasons behind observed intraspecific differences. Asynchronous diachronic changes in dietary palaeoecology were observed between the included taxa. The observed trends in foraging and habitat use among herbivores in our dataset can be attributed to the directional vegetation change from open landscape to forest. Our findings imply that environmental changes and/or interspecific competition contributed to the local extinction of European bison and impacted the niches of remaining species through niche overlap (cervids) and partitioning (between cervids and aurochs). Thus, our observations are consistent with the influence of multiple mechanisms that acted concurrently.

A comprehensive review on the impact of climate change on the ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution of birds and possible approaches to address and conserve bird populations

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate published literature on the impact of climate change on birds. A systematic method was utilized to access research works of literature on “Impact of Climate Change on Birds”. A total of sixty-seven (67) research papers published between the years 1962 to 2023 was accumulated and used for this review. A subjective approach was used to select the topics: impact of climate change and birds. In this paper, nine (9) threatening impacts of climate change on the bird populations were assessed and presented as well as three (3) detrimental impacts of climate change on birds inhabiting mangrove forests. Further, this paper assessed some birds that are threatened with extinction and it also provided a checklist of some migratory birds that are threatened due to the changing climate and that are found on the RED list of the IUCN. Approaches and strategies to enhance and address bird conservation to combat the effect of climate change was also presented in this review. The published works of literature established that the global bird population dynamics, ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution are all affected due to the threats of climate change. Climate change will affect birds indirectly in the future by modifying their habitats through sea level rise, changes in fire regimes, and changes in vegetation or land use. Birds are in particular vulnerable to environmental changes like climate change since they are subject to continuous changes that may be negatively connected. This review highlights the fact that more extensive studies on the impact of climate change on birds should be done in neotropical countries since there are gaps of such information on research and published data in these biodiversity rich regions.

Is the change deforestation? Using time-series analysis of satellite data to disentangle deforestation from other forest degradation causes

Protecting natural ecosystems requires monitoring approaches that work as early warning systems to avoid degradation and protect biodiversity. However, separating forest disturbance causes in change-detection pipelines is challenging due to the complex interplay of multiple drivers affecting vegetation. This study aims to detect deforestation in highly heterogeneous ecosystems. We used Landsat NDVI time-series data for testing three unsupervised change detection methods: 1) the non-parametric phenological anomaly detection (npphen), 2) the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC), and 3) the pruned exact linear time (PELT) algorithms. We used visual interpretation of Google Earth Pro high-resolution data (< 10 m) to depict deforestation, and natural-induced changes, like forest browning and fires, evaluating the performance of the unsupervised methods. Additionally, a Random Forest model trained with the outputs from detection algorithms together with elevation and radar vegetation index data were utilised to depict deforestation in a second step. While PELT slightly outperformed other methods for tracking general vegetation changes, with overall accuracies (OA) ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, depending on the vegetation type, it also showed the slowest deforestation tracking response. CCDC presented the fastest response and an OA between 0.78 and 0.95. Additionally, we observed a mean OA of only 0.47 when separating deforestation from other changes using only the unsupervised models. On the other hand, deforestation was accurately detected (OA = 0.93; kappa = 0.83) when using CCDC outputs within a secondary supervised classification, agreeing with selected citizen-based complaints from the Environmental Superintendence. The relatively fast response in deforestation tracking using CCDC makes it a viable alternative for near real-time monitoring. Commonly used unsupervised detection methods may be coupled with supervised techniques to depict vegetation change sources robustly. This application constitutes a step forward for managing and monitoring vegetation areas in highly complex and dynamic landscapes, like Mediterranean ecosystems.