Vector Indices Research Articles

Hilbert-type inequalities in homogeneous cones

We prove L^p-L^q bounds for the class of Hilbert-type operators associated with generalized powers Q^a in a homogeneous cone \Omega . Our results extend and slightly improve earlier work from [16], where the problem was considered for scalar powers \mathbf a = (\alpha, \dots, \alpha) and symmetric cones. We give a more transparent proof, provide new examples, and briefly discuss the open question regarding characterization of L^p boundedness for the case of vector indices \mathbf a . Some applications are given to boundedness of Bergman projections in the tube domain over \Omega .

New methods of posturographic data analysis may improve the diagnostic value of static posturography in multiple sclerosis

BackgroundEarly and accurate diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) is crucial for its effective treatment. In MS diagnostic, neuronal networks that control posture and movement are of particular importance, which performance can be assessed using static posturography. Unfortunately, most of the commercially available posturographic platforms are not equipped with the appropriate procedures. MethodsTo solve this problem, the postural sway trajectories have been recorded in 55 MS patients while standing quiet with eyes open (EO), and then with eyes closed (EC). The trajectories were analyzed using our novel methods of postural sway parametrization, including sway stability vector (SV), anteroposterior and mediolateral sway indices (DIAP and DIML). ResultsThe results exhibited unique postural sway patterns that may be attributed to MS. Our novel parametrization methods of postural sway showed pathology specific increase of the postural sway velocity in EC tests. Additionally, we documented the abnormal alterations of the anteroposterior (AP) and the mediolateral (ML) sway indices that were also uniquely dependent on visual input. In EC tests, patients exhibited a characteristic pattern of sway increase in both AP and ML directions that correlated with the advance of the disease as measured by the EDSS Kurtzke scale and Functional System Scores. ConclusionsThe applied in the present study our novel posturographic metrics give the assessment a diagnostic value. It allows us to recommend the static posturography test as a simple and safe supplementary clinical tool in the diagnosis of MS. In the assessment of MS pathology or the effects of its treatment, the impact of vision on the sway stability vector seems the most important factor.

Vector Surveillance for Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika Virus and Yellow Fever at Three Blocks of Pakur Districts of Jharkhand, India

Vector borne diseases are a major public health problem in India. Dengue is endemic in almost all states and union territories. Aedes mosquitoes are known to transmit Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika virus and Yellow fever diseases to man in both rural and urban areas. Dengue has been restricted to urban area, but it has now spread to rural and tribal areas. An entomological survey was undertaken at selected villages of three Blocks of Pakur district i.e. Pakur, Maheshpur and Amarpada of Jharkhand to know the potential for the transmission of Dengue/Chikungunya, Zika virus and Yellow fever and thereby undertaking surveys of breeding places of the vector species in these area by assessing the vector indices i.e. House Index (HI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) along with virus antigen detection. The entomological indices of G aneshpura, Datiapokhar and Longbahra villages of Maheshpur block recorded very high i.e. HI-28.5, 15.0 & 10.0; BI-34.2, 15.0 & 10.0 and CI-11.8, 8.8 & 4.8 respectively. The entomological indices of Pakur block, villages Jamsherpur, Malipada and Gopinathpur showed HI-7.3, 3.3 & 2.3; BI-7.3, 3.3 & 2.3 and CI-3.5, 1.5 & 1.3 respectively. The entomological indices of Amarpada block, villages-Jagjitpur, Ambajora and Pakudh showed HI-6.6, 0.0 & 0.0; BI-6.6, 0.0 & 0.0; and CI-2.5, 0.0 & 0.00 respectively. However, surveys revealed highest vector indices at Maheshpur block, followed by Pakur block and Amarpada block. Local health authorities of Maheshpur, Pakur and Amarpada blocks need to take cognizance of these facts with the presence of breeding potential areas and to develop micro action plan for appropriate vector control measures along with vector surveillance on regular basis.

Factors associated with chikungunya prevalence in northeastern Thailand in 2016–2017

Background: Chikungunya (CHIK) fever is a self-limited acute febrile illness associated with polyarthritis. CHIK virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in which Aedes aegypti is regarded as the primary vector. Many factors can be attributed to the expansion of CHIKV infection, consisting of the increased number of travelers, spread of competent mosquitoes, adaptation of a new CHIKV strain with Aedes albopictus mosquitoes as well as the climate changes. Our previous research in the northeastern region of Thailand showed a risk of CHIKV outbreaks since the virus was circulating in human and mosquito populations. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of mosquito density, monthly climate variability and other factors on the prevalence of CHIKV infection in the same part of Thailand during 2016–2017. Methods and materials: Patients with a fever presenting at sub-district hospitals during a 2-year collection period were included in the study and their ages, gender, and location recorded. Climate variables as well as the disease's seasonal pattern were descriptively analyzed. Geo-referenced maps showing the distribution of observed chikungunya cases and mosquito density by sub-district in 2016 and 2017 were created using GIS and spatial statistics analysis (hot spot analysis). Results: The highest proportion of anti-CHIKV IgG (41.4%), indicating the long-term neutralizing antibodies, was in the 24–64 year-age group while active infection (anti-CHIKV IgM) was only present in the <15 age group. The recent circulation of CHIKV infection was evenly distributed among sub-districts based on participating hospitals and associated with the high density of the mosquito populations. Abundance of mosquitoes was affected by rainfall but not by the monthly temperature and humidity, which also related with the high proportion of CHIKV positive cases. Conclusion: Long-term anti-CHIKV antibodies were relatively abundant in older age-groups indicating silent circulation of CHIKV in the region and potential for outbreaks. The prevalence of CHIKV infections was seasonally distributed and associated with rainfall. The high density of mosquitoes increases the chance of CHIKV infections and transmission. Further analysis on vector indices and genetic characterization is needed for the public health prevention and mitigating the threat of CHIKV outbreaks.

Maturation of the postural control in adolescent girls: A 3-year follow-up study

BackgroundStable posture is a manifestation of the appropriate functioning of the neuromuscular system that is essential for proper motor development and control. Balance and stability of the erect posture are shaped during the entire childhood to culminate in its full efficiency in adolescent subjects. MethodsIn this 3-year follow-up study, the process of the postural control maturation has been assessed in a group of 18 girls at the transition period between childhood to adolescence. Their balance and postural stability control were assessed using standard static posturography supplemented by two postural stability tests: the rising-on-toes (ROT), and the maximum forward lean (MFL), all performed with (EO) and without vision (EC). Balance control was analyzed with the sway vector (SV) and sway directional indices, whereas the anteroposterior trajectories of the center-of- pressure (COP) during forward-leaning and the raise-on-toes tests were used to determine changes in postural stability control. ResultsThe study documented that stability control in girls aged 11–13 is shaped according to their own pace of development. Their postural sway was characterized by the lower COP velocity but very sensitive to visual input. The directional sway measures remained at the same level for the entire period of observation. MFL and ROT tests provided similar information on postural stability and its dependence on visual input. These tests allow for more thorough assessment of postural stability to compare with quiet stance testing. SignificanceSubtle changes in postural control in adolescents could be assessed based on the results of combined static and dynamic tests. In particular, the ROT test can be recommended for the assessment of postural stability.

Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua

BackgroundDengue vector entomological indices are widely used to monitor vector density and disease control activities. But the value of these indices as predictors of dengue infection is not established. We used data from the impact assessment of a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention (Camino Verde) to examine the associations between vector indices and evidence of dengue infection and their value for predicting dengue infection levels. In 150 clusters in Mexico and Nicaragua, two entomological surveys, three months apart, allowed calculation of the mean Container Index, Breteau index, Pupae per Household Index, and Pupae per Container Index across the two surveys. We measured recent dengue virus infection in children, indicated by a doubling of dengue antibodies in paired saliva samples over the three-month period. We examined the associations between each of the vector indices and evidence of dengue infection at household level and at cluster level, accounting for trial intervention status. To examine the predictive value for dengue infection, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at household and cluster level, considering the four vector indices as continuous variables, and calculated the positive and negative likelihood ratios for different levels of the indices. None of the vector indices was associated with recent dengue infection at household level. The Breteau Index was associated with recent infection at cluster level (Odds ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.14–1.61). The ROC curve confirmed the weak predictive value for dengue infection of the Breteau Index at cluster level. Other indices showed no predictive value. Conventional vector indices were not useful in predicting dengue infection in Mexico and Nicaragua. The findings are compatible with the idea of sources of infection outside the household which were tackled by community action in the Camino Verde trial.

Vectorcardiography Findings Are Associated with Recurrent Ventricular Arrhythmias and Mortality in Patients with Heart Failure Treated with Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Device

Background: There is a need for refined risk stratification of sudden cardiac death and prediction of ventricular arrhythmias to correctly identify patients who are expected to benefit the most from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. Methods: We conducted a registry-based retrospective observational study on patients with either ischemic (ICMP) or nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NICMP) treated with ICD between 2002 and 2013 at a tertiary referral center. We evaluated 3 vectorcardiography (VCG) indices; spatial QRS-T angle, QRS vector magnitude (QRSvm), and T-wave vector magnitude (Twvm), and their association with all-cause mortality and ventricular arrhythmias. The VCG indices were automatically computed from resting 12-lead electrocardiograms before ICD implantation. Results: 178 patients were included in the study; 53.4% had ICMP, 79.2% were male, and mean ejection fraction was 27.4%. During the follow-up (median 89 months), 40 patients (23%) died; 31% had appropriate ICD therapy. In multivariate analysis with dichotomized variables, QRS-T angle >152° and Twvm <0.38 mV were significantly associated with increased mortality: HR 2.64 (95% CI 1.14–6.12, p = 0.02) and HR 5.30 (95% CI 2.31–12.11, p < 0.001), respectively. QRSvm <1.54 mV was borderline significant with mortality outcome (p = 0.10). The composite score of all 3 VCG indices, a score of 3, conferred an increased risk of mortality (including heart failure mortality) in multivariate analysis: HR 13.80 (95% CI 3.44–55.39, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The spatial QRS-T angle and Twvm are emerging VCG indices which are independently associated with mortality in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction due to ICMP or NICMP. Using a composite score of all 3 vector indices, a maximum score was associated with poor long-term survival.

Dynamics of malaria vector indices in two vegetation zones within North Eastern Adamawa State, Nigeria.

Studies profiling community and zonal malaria entomological risk indices are required to identify high risk areas where targeted control resources are most needed or likely to have the greatest impact on reducing risk of malaria infection. This study presents a first report on malaria vector risk indices in two vegetation zones within Adamawa state, Nigeria. Endophilic mosquitoes were collected for one year in selected communities in the Guinea and Sudan savanna zones within the State. Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite and human blood meal ELISA assays were carried out on the female Anopheles mosquitoes collected. Sibling species composition of the An. gambiae complex were determined using PCR assays. Mean numbers of mosquitoes in the Guinea savanna communities were significantly (t = 7.73, DF = 11, p < 0.001) higher than the Sudan. Man-biting rates (F = 2.76, p = 0.13) of Anopheles mosquitoes were higher in the Guinea but not significantly different from Sudan savanna. Sporozoite rates of mosquitoes within the Guinea savanna were 2.7 times higher than the Sudan. The predominant Anopheles coluzzii species encountered in the state had higher overall human blood indices (0.63) and sporozoite rates (6.9%) compared to An. gambiae (0.39, 1.9%) and An. arabiensis (0.58, 2.3%) respectively. Overall annual human blood indices (0.59) of mosquitoes in Adamawa were lower compared to reports from other States. Prevalence and higher transmission risks indices of endophilic An. coluzzii mosquitoes reveal the need for LLIN and management of relatively permanent An. coluzzii breeding sites in the State. Widespread cattle rearing lifestyle and lower human blood indices of mosquitoes in the study area suggest the need to investigate cattle blood indices of the mosquitoes in the state. Higher entomological risk indices in the Guinea Savanna zone provide baseline information for prioritization of malaria vector control supplies within the State.

Larval Indices of Vector Mosquitoes as Predictors of Dengue Epidemics: An Approach to Manage Dengue Outbreaks Based on Entomological Parameters in the Districts of Colombo and Kandy, Sri Lanka.

Background Early detection of dengue epidemics is a vital aspect in control programmes. Predictions based on larval indices of disease vectors are widely used in dengue control, with defined threshold values. However, there is no set threshold in Sri Lanka at the national or regional levels for Aedes larval indices. Therefore, the current study aimed at developing threshold values for vector indices in two dengue high-risk districts in Sri Lanka. Methods Monthly vector indices (House Index [HI], Container Index [CI], Breteau Index for Aedes aegypti [BIagp], and Ae. albopictus [BIalb]), of ten selected dengue high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas located in Colombo and Kandy districts, were collected from January 2010 to June 2019, along with monthly reported dengue cases. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in SPSS (version 23) was used to assess the discriminative power of the larval indices in identifying dengue epidemics and to develop thresholds for the dengue epidemic management. Results Only HI and BIagp denoted significant associations with dengue epidemics at lag periods of one and two months. Based on Ae. aegypti, average threshold values were defined for Colombo as Low Risk (2.4 ≤ BIagp < 3.8), Moderate Risk (3.8 ≤ BIagp < 5), High Risk (BIagp ≥ 5), along with BIagp 2.9 ≤ BIagp < 4.2 (Low Risk), 4.2 ≤ BIagp < 5.3 (Moderate Risk), and BIagp ≥ 5.3 (High Risk) for Kandy. Further, 5.5 ≤ HI < 8.9, 8.9 ≤ HI < 11.9, and HI ≥ 11.9 were defined as Low Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk average thresholds for HI in Colombo, while 6.9 ≤ HI < 9.1 (Low Risk), 8.9 ≥ HI < 11.8 (Moderate Risk), and HI ≥ 11.8 (High Risk) were defined for Kandy. Conclusions The defined threshold values for Ae. aegypti and HI could be recommended as indicators for early detection of dengue epidemics and to drive vector management activities, with the objective of managing dengue epidemics with optimal usage of financial, technical, and human resources in Sri Lanka.

Burden of Dengue with Related Entomological and Climatic Characteristics in Surat City, Gujarat, India, 2011-2016: An Analysis of Surveillance Data.

We estimated the incidence of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients for Surat city, India, using surveillance data from 2011 to 2016 and described the related entomological indices and climatic factors. There was a rise in incidence from 1.5 to 17.6 per 100,000 population, as the numbers of notified cases have increased because of better surveillance system. The case notification was 1.3 times higher for the public sector than the private sector. The larval indices were below the transmission level (House index, Breteau index < 1%). The median age of dengue patients was 20 years (IQR: 14-28), with a male to female ratio of 1.6:1. Five peripheral vector control units contributed to 1,013 (41.4%) confirmed cases with rising incidence in other units also. The number of dengue patients peaked during post-monsoon. Spearman's correlation of vector density with humidity (r s = 0.556), rainfall (r s = 0.644), and number of cases (r s = 0.708) suggested climate favorable for vector breeding. There is a good system of public-private coordination for dengue surveillance. However, there is a need to reassess the vector indices threshold for transmission in the city.

Appearance of Aedes Aegypti Mosquito in Alobeid Town, North Kordofan State, September–November 2018, Sudan

The most breeding of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were at indoor and outdoor water environments, including waterholding containers such as vases, jars, bathtubs, tires, garden debris, leaves, and flowerpots. The aim of the study was to survey Aedes aegypti larval breeding habitats and analyze vector indices. The survey was conducted in Alobied town, North Kordofan State in the in the selected 17 sites during September–November 2018. The mosquito immature stage including larvae and pupal stage of the genus Aedes were collected from the surveyed positive containers by sweep nets. The finding of the study showed that Aedes aegypti was the only species detected in water containers. Out of 226 houses were inspected a number of 84 houses were found positive. From a total of 784 containers were inspected with 136 containers positive. The House index (HI) during the period from September-November, 2018 was found to be 37.2%, the Breatu index (BI) was 10.7%, and container index (CI) was 17.3% while the pupal per demographic (P/D) was 0.05. No significance differences between Aedes aegypti indices during different months. It can be concluded that Aedes aegypti was prevalent in Alobied town. Urgent need is required for developing community ability to monitor their houses. In addition to health education sessions to provide correct health knowledge and consistent advice about proper behaviors for the community to fight Aedes aegypti vector

Features of the development of the need for reading in primary schoolchildren (results of applied research)

The article presents an empirical study results of the development of the need for reading in primary schoolchildren. In the theoretical part, the definition of the need for reading is given as an internal spiritual need, which in terms of meaning is delimited with the concept of «reading need» associated with motivations for reading. The conclusions presented in the study are based on the results of an expert survey (n = 91) conducted in schools of the Krasnodar Territory among primary school teachers. With the help of empirical research, the level of development needs for reading in primary school students was studied, the content of reading needs was determined, that is, the system of incentives for reading. The types of reading needs were determined empirically by means of factor analysis, the results of which made it possible to identify and describe 4 latent types of reading needs. The article also presents a methodology for determining the degree of mismatch between a reading attitude and real behavior (initiative and diligence), which was measured using vector indices. As a result of empirical research, it was found that the level of development needs for reading in primary schoolchildren is below the average, while this level is significantly lower in boys than in girls. It was also found that girls have a low mismatch between attitude and real behavior, which indicates an approximate correspondence of the need for reading and independence in the process of reading as a behavioral act. In boys, indicators of the mismatch of attitudes and behavior indicate a tendency to rational choice of a book with a low level of emotional need to read it.

Knowledge and preventive practices regarding dengue in an urban area of Palakkad

Background: Dengue is the most rapidly spreading viral disease in the world. Kerala had reported high incidence of dengue cases recently including deaths. Integrated vector management is the most effective method of vector control which requires community participation. As high incidence of dengue cases are reported in Palakkad district, it is imperative to assess the knowledge level and preventive practices followed by the community. This will help to formulate further action plans including awareness creation and behaviour change.Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted in two randomly selected wards of Palakkad municipality from July to August 2017. An adult from each household was interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. The household and its surroundings were also observed to identify breeding sources and calculate relevant vector indices.Results: 95.9% of informants knew that dengue is transmitted through bite of infected mosquito. 67.8% felt that dengue mosquito bites during the daytime. 53.0% of the families observed dry day practices. 15.8% used mosquito repellent creams and only 25.9% used mosquito nets. The house index, container index and breteau index were found to be 24.60%, 23.55% and 33.43% respectively.Conclusions: The awareness regarding modes of transmission and biting time of Aedes mosquito is good but the usage of personal protective measures is quite low. Although majority of the respondents had knowledge about breeding places, there were significant numbers of breeding sources especially plastic containers. Vector indices were also high indicating risk of transmission of dengue.

Social capital is associated with lower mosquito vector indices: secondary analysis from a cluster randomised controlled trial of community mobilisation for dengue prevention in Mexico

BackgroundControl of the Aedes aegypti mosquito is central to reducing the risk of dengue, zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Randomised controlled trials, including the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua, demonstrate the convincing impact of community mobilisation interventions on vector indices. These interventions might work through building social capital but little is known about the relationship between social capital and vector indices.MethodsA secondary analysis used data collected from 45 intervention clusters and 45 control clusters in the impact survey of the Mexican arm of the Camino Verde cluster randomised controlled trial. Factor analysis combined responses to questions about aspects of social capital to create a social capital index with four constructs, their weighted averages then combined into a single scale. We categorised households as having high or low social capital based on their score on this scale. We examined associations between social capital and larval and pupal vector indices, taking account of the effects of other variables in a multivariate analysis. We report associations as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.ResultsThe four social capital constructs were involvement, participation, investment, and communication. Among the 10,112 households, those in rural communities were much more likely to have a high social capital score (OR 4.51, 95% CIca 3.26–6.26). Households in intervention sites had higher social capital, although the association was not significant at the 5% level. Households with high social capital were more likely to be negative for larvae or pupae (OR 1.38, 95% CIca 1.12–1.69) and for pupae specifically (OR 1.37, 95% CIca 1.08–1.74). There was interaction between intervention status and social capital; in multivariate analysis, a combined variable of intervention/high social capital remained associated with larvae or pupae (ORa l.56, 95% CIca 1.19–2.04) and with pupae specifically (ORa 1.65, 95% CIca 1.20–2.28).ConclusionThis is the first report of an association of high social capital with low vector indices. Our findings support the idea that the Camino Verde community mobilisation intervention worked partly through an interaction with social capital. Understanding such interactions may help to maximise the impact of future community mobilisation interventions.

Post Flood Dengue Vector Surveillance-An Experience from Ernakulum District of Kerala, India in 2018

Introduction: Floods increase the transmission of water and vector borne diseases. In August 2018, severe floods affected the south Indian state Kerala. Present study was conducted in Ernakulam district of Kerala. Objectives: (i) To determine the major breeding sources for mosquitoes in the peri-domestic area (ii) to identify the species of mosquitoes and (iii) to analyse the vector (larval) indices. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in Ernakulam district of Kerala by using a mix method. Data was collected from 15th to 30th September, 2018 by House to House survey, Review of IDSP records and interview of key health officials of the district. Larval survey was done in 525 houses selected from 11 purposively selected areas. Data was entered and objective wise analysis was done by using Microsoft Excel and data was presented in number and percentages. Result: Ernakulam district is endemic for dengue fever. Out of total 1580 containers inspected maximum were of plastic (35.7%), followed by metals (21.9%) and plastic drums (9.9%). House Index ranged from 2 - 18 percent. Container Index ranged from 0.6 - 6.3 percent. Breatu Index ranged from 1.8 - 24.8 percent. Out of total 51 mosquitoes, 33 (64.7%) were Aedes Albopictus, 4 (7.8%) were Aedes Pseudotaeniatus, 5 (9.8%) were Armigeres Subalbatus and 9 (17.6%) were Culex Quinquefasciatus. Conclusion: High level of all the vector indices and plenty of empty containers is responsible for endemicity of dengue and it can give rise to outbreak at any point of time.

Obtaining consistent Lorentz gauging for a gravitationally coupled fermion

For internal gauge forces, the result of locally gauging, i.e., of performing the substitution $\partial \rightarrow D$, is physically the same whether performed on the action or on the corresponding Euler-Lagrange equations of motion. Rather unsettling, though, such commutativity fails for the standard way of coupling a Dirac fermion to the gravitational field in the setting of a local Lorentz gauge theory of general relativity in the vierbein formalism, the equivalence principle thus seemingly being here violated. This paper will present a formalism in which commutativity holds for the gravitational force as well, the action for the gravitational field itself being still the Einstein-Hilbert one. Notably, in this formalism, the spinor field will carry a world/coordinate index, rather than a Lorentz spinor index as it does standardly. More generally, no Lorentz indices will figure, neither vector indices nor spinor indices, which from a parsimonious point of view seems quite satisfactory.

Lorentz Group Projector Technique for Decomposing Reducible Representations and Applications to High Spins

The momentum-independent Casimir operators of the homogeneous spin-Lorentz group are employed in the construction of covariant projector operators, which can decompose anyone of its reducible finite-dimensional representation spaces into irreducible components. One of the benefits from such operators is that any one of the finite-dimensional carrier spaces of the Lorentz group representations can be equipped with Lorentz vector indices because any such space can be embedded in a Lorentz tensor of a properly-designed rank and then be unambiguously found by a projector. In particular, all the carrier spaces of the single-spin-valued Lorentz group representations, which so far have been described as 2 ( 2 j + 1 ) column vectors, can now be described in terms of Lorentz tensors for bosons or Lorentz tensors with the Dirac spinor component, for fermions. This approach facilitates the construct of covariant interactions of high spins with external fields in so far as they can be obtained by simple contractions of the relevant S O ( 1 , 3 ) indices. Examples of Lorentz group projector operators for spins varying from 1 / 2 –2 and belonging to distinct product spaces are explicitly worked out. The decomposition of multiple-spin-valued product spaces into irreducible sectors suggests that not only the highest spin, but all the spins contained in an irreducible carrier space could correspond to physical degrees of freedom.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODEL AS PREDICTOR FOR DENGUE OUTBREAKS

Dengue is an increasing threat in Malaysia, particularly in the more densely populated regions of the country. We present an Artificial Intelligence driven model in predicting Aedes outbreak, using predictors of weather variables and vector indices sourced from the Ministry of Health. Analysis and predictions to estimate Aedes populations were conducted, with its results being used to infer the possibility of dengue outbreaks at pre-determined localities around the Klang Valley, Malaysia. A Bayesian Network machine learning technique was employed, with the model being trained using predictor variables such as temperature, rainfall, date of onset and notification, and vector indices such as the Ae. albopictus count, Ae. aegypti count and larval count. The interfaces of the system were developed using the C# language for Server-side configuration and programming, and HTML, CSS and JavaScript for the Client Side programming. The model was then used to predict the population of Aedes at periods of 7, 14, and 30 days. Using the Bayesian Network technique utilising the above predictor variables we proposed a finalised model with predictive accuracy ranging from 79%-84%. This model was developed into a Graphical User Interface, which was purposed to assist and educate the general public of regions at risk of developing dengue outbreak. This remains a valuable case-study on the importance of public data in the context of combating a public health risk via the development of models for predicting outbreaks of dengue which will hopefully spur further sharing of data by all parties in combating public health threats.

Evaluation of the Effects of Aedes Vector Indices and Climatic Factors on Dengue Incidence in Gampaha District, Sri Lanka.

Constant monitoring of Aedes vector indices such as Aedes mosquito abundance and ovitrap data is important for the control of dengue epidemics. Therefore, the current study attempted to evaluate the effect of larval and climatic factors on the incidence of dengue outbreaks in the Gampaha district. Based on the distribution of previously reported dengue cases, 34 households in Narangodapaluwa PHI area, Ragama, Sri Lanka, were selected randomly, and entomological surveillance was done fortnightly using adult mosquito catches and larval surveillance techniques for a period of two years. Further, weekly ovitrap surveillance was conducted for one year, by maintaining four ovitraps in a single house, two indoors and two outdoors at ground and at a height of 1.5–2 m. Based on the findings, larval indices, namely, Breteau index (BI), House index (HI), and Container index (CI), were calculated, along with the Ovitrap index (OI). The study area was positive for Ae. albopictus with an adult capturing range of 1~15/34 households. BI initially remained < 3%, which subsequently decreased up to 0. No significant difference in OI was found between the ovitraps placed at ground level and at a height of 1.5-2m (p>0.05), 95% level of confidence. The OI varied from 56.9% to 94.7% during the study period of 12 months, indicating two peaks at the monsoons. Statistics of one-way ANOVA revealed a significant difference in the monthly OI during the study period (p≤0.001) with two peaks representing the monsoonal rainfall patterns. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that the association between dengue cases and larval indices (BI, CI, HI, and OI) and meteorological parameters was not significant (p<0.05). Migration of mosquitoes and patients could be considered as possible factors affecting the absence of a significant relationship.

A study on mosquito density in rural Kerala before and after floods

Background: Mosquito borne diseases are a major public health problem in Kerala. Mosquito density assessed by larval surveys is easier and quicker to perform. The larval indices are an important practical predictor of outbreaks of mosquito borne disease and are valuable in taking preventive measures. This study is done to calculate standardized larval indices namely house index, container index and Breteau index and to identify the major breeding sources of mosquitoes in the residential environment in a rural of Thrissur, Kerala.Methods: A cross-sectional study selecting 80 houses from 1 wards of Konnikara village under Thrikkur Panchayath under the field practice area of rural training centre, Amala Institute of Medical Sciences Thrissur. Every water holding container indoors and outdoors was counted and searched for larval presence and noted on a pretested format.Results: In this study, 80 houses were surveyed in 2 days initially in June and in September. All the entomological indices were found to be above the critical level in the initial survey in June. House index=36% container index=44%; Breteau index=143% showing high chances for outbreaks of mosquito borne diseases. In September though the indices were very low house index 1.25% container index 2.77% and Breteau index.Conclusions: The area is prone for mosquito borne disease outbreaks like dengue fever and after interventions the vector indices and potential risks came down.