Vector Autoregressive Error Correction Models Research Articles

The Dynamic Impact of Financial Technology and Energy Consumption on Environmental Sustainability

This research investigates the dynamic interplay between financial technology, information and communication technology, energy consumption, and economic growth on environmental sustainability within Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLEs) from 2005 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric techniques, such as Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Vector Autoregressive Error Correction Model (VECM), the investigation scrutinizes the hypothesized relationships among these variables. Panel unit root tests were deployed to assess stationarity, while panel least squares methodology was employed to determine the presence of co-integration among the variables under study. The analysis reveals that internet usage, GDP, and renewable energy consumption exhibit a notable influence in diminishing CO2 emissions within EAGLE economies. Additionally, the findings substantiate the existence of long-term causality originating from these variables and impacting CO2 emissions. Conversely, the role of ATM networks in CO2 emissions remains ambiguous, implying that financial technology’s influence on environmental sustainability is inconclusive. Consequently, the research posits that environmental sustainability in EAGLE economies is chiefly determined by factors such as internet usage, economic expansion, and renewable energy consumption, with financial technology demonstrating no discernable impact. In light of these findings, the study advocates for the reevaluation and adaptation of existing policies and strategies to account for shifting climatic conditions. By doing so, decision-makers can better align their efforts with the pursuit of environmental sustainability in the context of rapidly evolving economies.

Can tourism curb income inequality? Tourism Agenda 2030

Diseño/metodología/enfoqueEl estudio emplea un riguroso análisis dinámico de datos de panel, concretamente un modelo de corrección de errores autorregresivo vectorial de panel (PVEM), que tiene en cuenta tanto las relaciones dinámicas como las endógenas en el nexo turismo-desigualdadObjetivoEste documento examina la relación entre el desarrollo del turismo y la desigualdad de ingresos, estrechamente vinculada a los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible, para el caso de una amplia muestra de 83 países (y submuestras) durante el periodo 1990-2019.ConclusionesLos resultados apoyan firmemente que el desarrollo turístico tiene un efecto reductor de la desigualdad de ingresos (aunque relativamente pequeño, con una elasticidad declarada de 0,05). El análisis de submuestras revela que el impacto del turismo en la desigualdad de ingresos varía y es relativamente mayor en las economías en desarrollo y en aquellas economías dependientes del turismo, en comparación con las economías desarrolladas. De hecho, se informa de que un aumento del 1% en el desarrollo del turismo reduce la desigualdad de ingresos en un 0,46% en las economías en desarrollo y en un 0,56% en las economías dependientes del turismo, frente a sólo un 0,02% en las economías desarrolladas. Se observa además que el turismo puede afectar indirectamente a la desigualdad de ingresos a través del crecimiento económico.Originalidad/valorEl artículo intenta complementar la escasa bibliografía sobre el nexo entre turismo y desigualdad analizando submuestras de un gran conjunto de datos y empleando un marco dinámico de datos de panel. También se explora el posible efecto indirecto del turismo sobre la desigualdad a través del canal del crecimiento económico.

Does immigration affect residential real estate prices? Evidence from Australia

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the effect of immigration on housing prices in Australia both at the national and regional levels.Design/methodology/approachData for eight Australian states on a quarterly basis from 2004–2017 is used. To study the possible dynamic and endogenous relationship between housing prices and immigration, a panel vector autoregressive error correction model (PVECM) is adopted.FindingsAnalysis of the results indicates that in the short run immigration positively and significantly affects housing prices, whereas in the long run no significant relationship was observed between the two variables. From the regional breakdown and analysis, it is discerned that in some states there is a significant and positive effect of immigration on residential real estate prices in the long run. Causality analysis confirms that the direction of causation is from immigration to housing prices.Practical implicationsThe study illustrates that immigration and interstate migration, as well as high salaries, have been causing a rise in housing demand and subsequently housing prices. To monitor exceedingly high housing prices, local authorities should be controlling migration and salary levels.Originality/valuePast research studies had highlighted the importance of native interstate migration in explaining the nexus between immigration – housing prices. In this study, it has been empirically verified how immigration has been affecting the locational decisions of natives and subsequently how this has been affecting housing prices.

Does Trade Elasticity Vary Across Regimes? New Evidence from Korean Exports, Incorporating Regime Changes*

We examined whether the elasticities of Korean exports with respect to global GDP and to the exchange rate vary depending on exports’ expansionary or contractionary regimes. Our empirical analysis incorporated regime changes and cointegration into a multivariable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model. Our estimation results revealed asymmetries in the short‐run elasticities of Korea's exports between the two regimes, although their long‐run elasticities remain stable. The positive effect of global GDP on Korea's exports is inelastic during contractionary regimes but elastic in expansionary regimes. The effect of home currency appreciation is negative and elastic under expansionary regimes but positive and inelastic under contractionary regimes.

The Spillover Effect of US Monetary Policy on China’s Macroeconomy

How to quantitatively measure the macro dynamic effect of monetary policy is one of the most critical issues in the mainstream macro research （Benanke and Gertler, 1995; Christiano, et al., 1999）. In the context of global financial integration, how will a country’s monetary policy affect the macroeconomy of other countries? This international spillover effect of monetary policy has been hotly debated in the academy, but it has not yet been conclusive. The reason is that, empirically, how to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy has not been well resolved at the technical level; theoretically, mainstream macroeconomic models provide various transmission mechanisms, and no consensus has been reached.Due to the above difficulties, research on the international spillover effect of monetary policy is still in its early stage, and the impact of US monetary policy on China’s economy is seldom studied. From the empirical point of view, this article follows the latest literature Barakchian and Crowe （2013, hereinafter referred to as BC） to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy in the United States, and studies the dynamic impact of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and its underlying transmission mechanism. This article provides new evidence on the international spillover effect of monetary policy and also tests the existing theories in international economics from an empirical perspective.The primary issue to be addressed in monetary policy research is how to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. However, macroeconomic regulation often relies on the current situation of aggregate economy. Since there is a strong endogenous relationship among economic variables, it is difficult to directly construct a system that includes policy variables and macroeconomic indicators to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. To this end, BC （2013） solves the endogenous issue regarding the identification of monetary policy shocks. The exogenous shock constructed through their indicator not only avoids making ad hoc assumptions about the feedback rules of monetary policy, but also avoids the endogenous problems and the sample selection issue in traditional identification methods.Based on the US monetary policy shock constructed by BC （2013）, this article studies the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and therefore solves the aforementioned endogenous problem of monetary policy shocks. The basic model of the empirical analysis is a three-variable structural vector autoregressive error correction model （SVECM） that includes China’s industrial output, price index, and US monetary policy shocks. Based on this model, we find that the opening-up policy of WTO accession at the end of 2001 has a significant structural impact on the spillover effect of US monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Specifically, we divide the monthly data from 1996−2008 into two sub-samples before and after January 2002. Using the 2002−2008 subsample, we find that the impact of the US’s tightening monetary policy significantly causes China’s output to rise and prices to fall, thus performing as a positive supply shock to China’s economy. Based on the 1996−2001 subsample, US monetary policy will not have a significant impact on China’s economy. The above findings are largely different from the findings in Kim （1999, 2001）, Canova （2005）, and among others.In the analysis of the transmission mechanism, this article finds that the price channel can well explain the stylized facts in the data. Our theory proceeds as follows: The US tightening monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, which will cause US manufacturers to lower their export prices in US dollars （Exchange Rate Pass-Through）. Due to the yuan-dollar fixed exchange rate system, China’s import prices will decline, and the prices of domestic raw materials and CPI will decline. Lower production costs lead manufacturers to increase production, which is reflected by an increase in China’s output. Therefore, the price channel indicates that the US tightening monetary policy is equivalent to a positive supply shock, which will simultaneously increase China’s output and reduce the price level. Based on the extended SVECM system, we find that Chinese macro data can identify the price channels of imported goods. Further robustness analysis shows that our main findings are robust to different sample periods and different model settings. Besides, in order to better explain the identification of import price channels, we have conducted empirical tests on several standard theories in international economics. The results show that the standard theories fail to explain the Chinese data. Therefore, the price channel provides the primary transmission mechanism of the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s economy, and this channel also explains the empirical finding that WTO has a structural impact on the spillover effect.

Does Credit Supply Accelerate Business Cycle Changes in Korea?: Some New Evidence by Incorporating Regime Changes

This work empirically investigates how commercial banks' aggregate credit supply is associated with business cycle over different regimes of the Korean economy. Linear empirical models employed in most of previous studies are subject to a potential missapecification problem because it is well known that both real GDP and credit supply reveal different dynamic properties over different regimes. This work finds that credit supply has asymmetric effect on business cycle for expansion and contraction phases when the Smooth Transition Autoregressive Vector Error Correction Model (or STAR-VECM) is employed. Our empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, we find that credit supply has procyclical effect on real GDP in all phases. Secondly, the procyclical effects are significantly intensified especially in contractionary phases which indicates asymmetry of its effect. In sum, this result supports 'Credit Acceleration Hypothesis' of Bernanke et al. (1999). Lastly, we further find that real GDP has asymmetric effects on banks' credit supply with countercyclical effect on expansionary regimes.

Does Intra‐regional Trade Matter in Regional Stock Markets? New Evidence from the Asia‐Pacific Region

We provide new evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and stock market returns across the Asia‐Pacific region. Using three country blocs in this region, including the Far Eastern bloc, the Chinese bloc and the Australian bloc, we examine whether trade linkages between countries affect their stock returns. Incorporating two distinct dynamic properties of regime shifting and cointegration in intra‐regional trade and stock market returns, we employ the newly suggested multivariable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR‐VECM). A series of estimations reveals evidence that bilateral trade significantly Granger‐causes stock returns in the Asia‐Pacific region, with effects that are asymmetric depending upon the stock market regime and the country pair. Among the three blocs, the Far Eastern bloc displays a more pronounced positive effect of bilateral trade growth on stock returns than do the other blocs.

Do Korean Exports Have Different Patterns Over Different Regimes?: New Evidence from Star-Vecm

In this work we examine whether the relationships of Korean exports to global GDP and to the exchange rate change depending on whether exports are in their expansionary or their contractionary regimes. To this empirical end we incorporate the two distinct dynamic features of regime change and co-integration into a multi-variable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR-VECM). Our estimation results reveal asymmetries in the short-run relationships of Korea’s exports to global GDP and to the exchange rate, between the contractionary and the expansionary export regimes, although their long-run relationships remain stable. Specifically, the positive effect of real global GDP on Korea’s real exports is inelastic during contractionary regimes but changes to become elastic in expansionary regimes. The effect of the real effective exchange rate on Korea’s real exports is positive and inelastic under contractionary regimes, but becomes negative and elastic under expansionary regimes. Our results suggest that the asymmetric properties of the relationship of Korea’s exports to global GDP and the exchange rates across the different regimes should be taken into account in order to better understand the behavior of Korea’s exports.

Capital investment: lubricant of the engine of production process in agricultural sector – evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the effect of capital investment on the productivity of agricultural sphere of Nigeria. The productivity of the sector was proxy as the agriculture’s contribution to the GDP while commercial bank loan to agriculture, annual budgetary allocation to agricultural sector and various categories of ACGS loan scheme were proxy as investment frameworks. The data used for thus study were extracted from various bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics from 1978–2014. The long and short run relationship of these variables were estimated using the Johansen approach to cointegration and the Vector Autoregressive Error Correction Model respectively. The test of cointegration revealed presence of long run relationship among the various investment sources and categories and agricultural productivity in Nigeria. This confirmed capital as the lubricant of the production process without which other factors of production may become difficult to acquire. The short run estimates revealed total volume of loan, volume of loan to individual and volume of loan above N100,000 as variables that influence agricultural productivity in the short run, further confirming the important place of capital investment in creating jobs in agricultural sector.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

Does Intra-Regional Trade Matter in Regional Stock Markets?: New Evidence from Asia-Pacific Region

We provide new evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and stock market performance over Asia-Pacific region. Using three regional blocs in Asia-Pacific region – the Far Eastern bloc, the Chinese bloc, and the Australian bloc, we examine two main questions: whether trade linkages between countries affect stock returns of trading partners and whether stock markets of trading partners are interdependent. By incorporating two distinct dynamic properties of regime shifting and cointegration in intra-regional trade and stock market index, we employ a newly suggested multi-variable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR-VECM). A series of STAR-based tests reveals the evidence that bilateral trade significantly Granger-causes stock returns in Asia-Pacific region with the effect varying over regime changes. Among three blocs, Far Eastern bloc displays the most pronounced complementary relationship between trade growth and stock returns compared to other blocs. We also find evidence of stock market synchronization within each region.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

The Tunisian Tourism Business: What We Learn About The European Demand?

People from European countries are traditionally the most important sources of tourism for Tunisia. The aim of this paper is to analysis the European tourism demand for Tunisia. we propose a vector autoregression error correction model. The following methodology allows us to analysis the dynamic of Tunisian tourism in both short-term and long-term. Our main results show that the real exchange rate is an important factor explaining long-term overnight stays. A currency depreciation of 10% will increase the number of nights spent by visitors by 12% in the long term, but will have the opposite effect in the short term. However, we show that tourism demand is inelastic to income, indicating the low-cost nature of Tunisian tourism.

Regression-based analysis of cointegration systems

Two estimation procedures dominate the cointegration literature: Johansen’s maximum likelihood inference on vector autoregressive error correction models and estimation of Phillips’ triangular forms. This latter methodology is essentially semiparametric, focusing on estimating long run parameters by means of cointegrating regressions. However, it is less used in practice than Johansen’s approach, since its implementation requires prior knowledge of features such as the cointegrating rank and an appropriate set of non-cointegrated regressors. In this paper we develop a simple and automatic procedure (based on unit root and regression-based cointegration testing) which, without imposing a parametric specification for the short run components of the model, provides an estimator of the cointegrating rank and data-based just-identifying conditions for the cointegrating parameters which lead to a Phillips’ triangular form. A Monte Carlo analysis of the properties of the estimator and an empirical application are also provided.

The Effects of Shocks on the Ukrainian Labor Market: SVEC Modeling

The article analyzes dynamics of the Ukrainian labor market during 2002-2014 years. In the result of conducted econometric analysis we created structural vector autoregressive error correction model for labor productivity, employment, unemployment rate and real wages. The analysis of impulse response to technological shocks, labor demand shocks, labor supply shocks and wage-setting shocks was conducted on the basis of developed SVEC. The modeling results demonstrated that in Ukraine there is no single reason for hysteresis in unemployment. Various structural and cyclical shocks explain unemployment over different time horizons. In particular, labor supply shocks lead to contemporaneous growth of unemployment, while in the long run positive technological shocks and labor demand shocks are an important source of reducing unemployment rate. Technological shocks also have a significant beneficial impact on other labor market indicators. In particular was found that a positive technological shock causes an increase in productivity, employment and real wages, and this impact has a significant effect both in the short and in the long run.

The impact of stock market development and inflation on economic growth in India: evidence using the ARDL bounds testing and VECM approaches

This paper investigates the impact of stock market development, money supply and inflation on economic growth in India during the post-globalisation era of the 1990s, especially during the period from 1994 to 2012. Using autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the study finds stock market development, money supply, inflation and economic growth are cointegrated, suggesting the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. The vector autoregressive error correction model (VECM) further confirms the existence of both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between economic growth, money supply, inflation and stock market development in India. The policy implication of this study is that inflation and money supply can be considered a policy variable to predict both economic growth and stock market development in the Indian economy during the post globalisation era.

Building Scenarios of Multiple Time Series that Take into Account the Effects of an Expected Intervention

ABSTRACTWe consider a forecasting problem that arises when an intervention is expected to occur on an economic system during the forecast horizon. The time series model employed is seen as a statistical device that serves to capture the empirical regularities of the observed data on the variables of the system without relying on a particular theoretical structure. Either the deterministic or the stochastic structure of a vector autoregressive error correction model of the system is assumed to be affected by the intervention. The information about the intervention effect is just provided by some linear restrictions imposed on the future values of the variables involved. Formulas for restricted forecasts with intervention effects and their mean squared errors are derived as a particular case of Catlin's static updating theorem. An empirical illustration uses Mexican macroeconomic data on five variables and the restricted forecasts consider targets for years 2011–2014. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trade, FDI and Regional Integration in East Asia

The study examines the long-run relationship between trade, FDI and GDP growth in the East Asia region employing panel integration and cointegration techniques for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 20 East Asian countries over the period 1980 to 2007. The paper also explores the long-run impact of FDI and trade among ASEAN, ASEAN plus 3 and ASEAN plus 6 groupings in the panel framework. The long and short-run relationships are examined in a vector-autoregressive error correction model using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation of Pesaran et al. (1996). Our findings support the existence of long-run relationship between trade, FDI and GDP growth for ASEAN and ASEAN plus 3 groupings. The panel unit roots test indicates that the panel series are stationary after first differencing. The panel cointegration tests of Pedroni (1999) clearly indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between trade, FDI and GDP for East Asia, AESAN plus 3 and ASEAN. However, we found little evidence of a long-run relationship for ASEAN plus 6 groupings from the panel cointegration analysis and PMG estimation. The direction of the causality clearly indicates that FDI is the key variable driving the trade and regional integration in East Asian region.

Estimating Dynamic Impacts of the Seafood Industry in Alaska

This study estimates the dynamic impacts of the seafood industry and investigates multivariate relationships between basic and nonbasic sectors. The study regions are two fishery-dependent regions in Alaska, which are heavily dependent on extra-regional inputs such as non-resident labor and imports of intermediate inputs. This study follows Johansen's approach and develops a vector autoregressive error correction model, which has the advantage of properly attributing the impact of shocks, directly estimating long-run relationships, and identifying the process of adjustment by nonbasic sectors to the long-run equilibrium. Results show that the impacts of the seafood industry are relatively small in the two study regions, whose economies are characterized by large leakages of labor income and large imports of inputs.

STABILITY OF REGIME SWITCHING ERROR CORRECTION MODELS UNDER LINEAR COINTEGRATION

The paper obtains conditions that ensure stationarity of linear long-run equilibrium relations and differenced observations in vector autoregressive error correction models with nonlinear short-run dynamics. The considered models include various threshold error correction models and their smooth transition counterparts. These models assume that the form of the short-run dynamics depends on values of observable transition functions that determine the regime in which the considered process evolves. In related models studied in the paper the transition functions are unobservable. These models are obtained by making the transition functions of threshold error correction models dependent on an unobservable random term. Previous stationarity conditions obtained for these kinds of regime switching error correction models are extended by using recent developments on nonlinear autoregressive models based on the theory of Markov chains and the concept of joint spectral radius of a set of square matrices. In addition to stationarity, existence of second-order moments and beta mixing is also established. The results of the paper enhance the understanding of the considered nonlinear error correction models and pave the way for the development of their asymptotic estimation and testing theory.Financial support from the Research Unit of Economic Structures and Growth (RUESG) in the University of Helsinki and the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The author thanks Anders Rahbek for stimulating discussions on the topic of this paper and Helmut Lütkepohl and an anonymous referee for useful comments.