Abstract This paper aims to refine an effective procedure to reconstruct the past level changes of closed lakes, as a tool for future management. In most cases, such water bodies are overlooked (particularly when they are small), even if they play a significant role in local communities from the economic and social points of view. In this perspective, this study explores the potential of using reanalysis data, as a single source of data to compute the lake water mass balance, and water level observations. It focuses on some closed lakes with minimal anthropogenic influence in Europe, Africa, and the United States. The number of cases studied is limited by the fact that a significant time series of water levels is difficult to obtain for small lakes. The research leverages ERA5 Land (ERA5L), the land component of ERA5 reanalysis, incorporating the Freshwater Lake (FLake) model. FLake allows simulation of the interaction of inland water bodies with the atmosphere. The use of ERA5L is preceded by data validation by considering satellite observation. To simulate the water mass balance of the selected lakes, the proposed procedure combines precipitation, runoff, and evaporation from the lake, provided by ERA5L, and the lake water level observations. The results indicate that even with a short time series of water level observations, a good agreement (Pearson coefficient ranging from 50% to 90%) between the observed monthly variation of the lake level and the corresponding values of the water storage, computed by using ERA5L, is achieved. The procedure exhibits adaptability and robustness, with an accurate representation of the lake water level trends. However, occasional discrepancies are noted during specific periods, primarily attributed to ERA5L precipitation biases. The proposed procedure can be used only when lake water level observations are available. This limits the number of lakes that it can be applied to. However, the procedure can be applied even with a short time series of data, without the need for additional ground-based or remotely sensed data to compute the water mass balance. Significance Statement This study employs ERA5L reanalysis data and lake level observations to effectively reconstruct the natural variability of closed lake water levels in some monitored lakes in Europe, Africa, and the United States. Results demonstrate the adaptability and robustness of the proposed procedure in capturing the past level changes. Despite occasional discrepancies attributed to precipitation biases, the procedure proves reliable for assessing lake water level trends. Future studies could refine the procedure and extend its applicability, enhancing the ability to monitor environmental changes.
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