Variation In Turnout Research Articles

The new information infrastructure: Strategies for U.S. policies

Australia has one of the highest levels of invalid votes among the established liberal democracies. Three hypotheses have been put forward to account for variations in turnout—that it results from institutional factors, differing patterns of social structure, or reflects political protest by voters. These hypotheses are used to explain informal voting in Australia's compulsory voting system. The data are national polling booth results for the 1987 and 1990 federal elections, and polling booth results from New South Wales matched to the 1986 census. The results reject the institutional and protest hypotheses, but support the social structural hypothesis. In particular, immigrants who are recently arrived and have poor English skills are significantly more likely to spoil their votes. Australia's high level of invalid votes is therefore explained by the interaction between compulsory voting, the complexity of the electoral system, and by the presence of large numbers of immigrants within the electorate. The results have significant implications for the design of electoral systems in the newly-emerging democracies of Eastern Europe.

Voter Turnout in Norway: Time, Space, and Causality

This article focuses on diachronic and synchronic variation in Norwegian electoral turnout from 1945 to 1991. The model contains aggregate data divided into two‐year intervals with regions as cross‐sections. The impact of both socio‐economic and political variables is tested. The two‐dimensional view on turnout variation makes it possible to distinguish between short‐term and long‐term effects, as well as between national versus local factors. In contrast to related studies, this analysis actually tests for causality relationships between different political variables. The empirical results indicate that an increase in either national unemployment or regional income contributes to an increase in turnout rates. Electoral participation is also positively related to Labour support, industrial employment and strike activity.

Comparing local electoral turnout in Great Britain and France: More similarities than differences?

AbstractElectoral and census data from Great Britain and France are used in a comparative analysis of the levels and determinants of local election turnout in the two countries. First, nine simple propositions about variations in turnout are tested using as similar as possible variables for each country. These variables are then used as the bases for multi‐variate regression analyses. The residual cases in each country are compared in order to explore the more qualitative factors which may explain why some localities have a level of participation so much above or below that expected statistically. The paper ends with an attempt to specify an explanatory model of local electoral turnout applicable to both countries.

Economic Salience and Differential Abstention in Presidential Elections

Previous studies of American voting behavior have assumed that variations in turnout across election years are the result of fluctuations in the determinants of the voting decision. In this article I suggest that levels of turnout may also vary from year to year because of shifting relationships between economic variables and the voting decision. I use pooled cross-sectional data from the 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992 American National Election Studies to test the hypothesis that Black, working-class, and unemployed individuals who stayed home from the polls in 1980 and 1988 became mobilized during the 1984 and 1992 presidential elections because of the nature of the economy and the party of the incumbent president. I extend this analysis to include athtudinal variables that measure perceptions about the state of the national economy and the effect of national policies on one's personal financial well-being. The results of the probit analyses suggest that (a) working-class individuals were less likely to vote in the 1980 and 1988 elections, but this variation vanished in 1984 and 1992, and (b) both "pocketbook" and "sociotropic" concern regarding unemployment led to increased participation in the 1984 and 1992 elections, in contrast to the 1980 and 1988 elections.

Local Elections and Local Government Performance

Over the past couple of decades, the level of turnout in Norwegian local elections has shown a steady d. This decline is paralleled by a greater range of variation in turnout across Norwegian municipalities. Arguing from the perspective of rational utility‐maximizing voters, the article examines to what extent such variations in the level of turnout may be accounted for by the policy performance of local authorities – in addition to certain structural features of the municipalities and local communities. Using aggregate data on turnout and measures of policy performance. the analysis testifies to the suggestion that policy exerts an influence in determining the level of turnout, indicating a turn in the direction of more rational voting behaviour as far as local elections arc concerned. It is also evident from the analysis that the appearance of smaller single‐issue parties does have a mobilizing effect in local elections while the Downsian suggestion about the effect of party competition on turnout levels is not supported by the mule of the analysis.

Institutions, society or protest? Explaining invalid votes in Australian elections

Australia has one of the highest levels of invalid votes among the established liberal democracies. Three hypotheses have been put forward to account for variations in turnout—that it results from institutional factors, differing patterns of social structure, or reflects political protest by voters. These hypotheses are used to explain informal voting in Australia's compulsory voting system. The data are national polling booth results for the 1987 and 1990 federal elections, and polling booth results from New South Wales matched to the 1986 census. The results reject the institutional and protest hypotheses, but support the social structural hypothesis. In particular, immigrants who are recently arrived and have poor English skills are significantly more likely to spoil their votes. Australia's high level of invalid votes is therefore explained by the interaction between compulsory voting, the complexity of the electoral system, and by the presence of large numbers of immigrants within the electorate. The results have significant implications for the design of electoral systems in the newly-emerging democracies of Eastern Europe.

Inter-Constituency Migration and Turnout at the British General Election of 1983

One of the most striking features of British general election results is the large variation in turnout across constituencies. In 1983, for instance, the mean turnout was 72.6 per cent of the registered electorate but it ranged from 82.1 per cent in Carmarthen to 51.8 per cent in the City of London and Westminster. Moreover, these variations tend to be reproduced in successive elections – the bivariate correlation between constituency turnout in the 1983 and 1987 elections for all 633 mainland Britain constituencies is +0.94.

La participation aux élections municipales dans les villes françaises

Municipal election turnout in French cities An interpretive model of territorial variations in turnout applied to the 1983 municipal election in all French cities of more than 20,000 inhabitants makes it possible to test the validity of six central hypotheses. Based on ecological data, this multi-varied analysis contributes to drawing the profile of the most and the least voting cities, taking into account their social and political characteristics. The method used, building on research on electoral participation in France and abroad since Merriam and Gosnell, attempts to combine quantitative analysis and an understanding of local specificities.

Turnout in English local elections—An aggregate analysis with electoral and contextual data

Analysis of survey data by Miller has identified a number of factors influencing voter participation in local government elections in Britain. Nevertheless, variations in turnout remain so great that further investigation is required. This article uses aggregate data derived from the results of county council elections since 1981 and those for the metropolitan districts since 1982. Additional data, of a social, economic and structural nature, are also used to explore variations in electoral turnout. Using multiple regression analysis produces only a modest success in predicting turnout for the more rural county authorities. In the urban metropolitan districts, however, a much higher level of turnout could be predicted from the model.

Community Cohesion and Voter Turnout in English Parliamentary Constituencies

Voting turnout varies both over time and across space. In Britain there has been a secular trend in the postwar period for decreasing turnout at parliamentary elections (from a high of 84.1 per cent in 1950 to 75.4 percent in 1987, with a low point of 71.8 per cent in 1970). Such temporal variations in turnout are dwarfed in scale, however, by differences in turnout across constituencies at the same election. In the 1970 election, for example, turnout ranged from a low of 44.9 per cent in Stepney to 85.3 per cent in Cornwall North. Though diminished slightly, variation in constituency turnout rates remained significant in the June 1983 election (from a low of 51.8 percent in City of London and Westminster South to a high of 81.1 percent in Leicestershire NW).

The Downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect

This paper applies a game-theoretic model of participation under uncertainty to investigate the negative relationship between constituency size and voter turnout rates: theconstituency size effect. We find that this theoretical model accounts for almost all of the variation in turnout due to size in cross sectional data from school budget referenda.

Some Aspects of the Geography of Political Participation in Western Australia

The paper discusses three aspects of the geography of political participation—enrolment, turnout, and informal voting—for the compulsory electoral system of Western Australia. The considerable variation in percentage enrolment by electorate is explained in terms of an underprivileged and a privileged model, with the former being the more relevant. Spatial variations in turnout are explained in terms of an alienation and a duty model, with the former being the more important from a politicogeographical perspective. Attempts to explain spatial variations in informal voting in terms of either a political illiteracy or a political literacy model are found to be inadequate.

Voter Turnout Among the American States: Systemic and Individual Components

Traditional studies of voter turnout in the United States have identified three factors which are presumed to explain most of the differences between the states in voter turnout: socio-demographic differences, electoral competitiveness, and differences in the rules under which elections are conducted. These studies have not, however, clearly distinguished the three factors largely because of their exclusive reliance on aggregate data to analyze the differences. The purpose of this paper is to 1) distinguish between individual and systemic components of turnout and 2) to attempt to partition the variation in turnout between the components. Unlike previous research, this study used both survey and aggregate data to decompose the variation in turnout among the states into first two components—individual and systemic, and then the latter into political (electoral competitiveness) and legal.

Marginality and Turnout in British General Elections

One of the most striking features of British general election results is the large variation in turnout from one constituency to another. In the 1970 election, for instance, turnout in Britain ranged from 44–9 per cent in Stepney to 85–3 per cent in Cornwall North. Moreover, the variation in turnout has become greater in recent years. While the mean turnout in general elections has tended to fall, the standard deviation of turnout has increased steadily from 5–3 in the 1955 election to 6–9 in the 1970 election. With the exception of the Nuffield studies, however, there have been few attempts to investigate this variation. Political scientists have concentrated instead on describing and attempting to explain differences in turnout between different social and demographic groups.

The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems

An enduring fact of life in democratic electoral systems is that the party winning the largest share of the votes almost always receives a still larger share of the seats. This paper tests three models describing the inflation of the legislative power of the victorious party and then develops explanations of the observed differences in the swing ratio and the partisan bias of an electoral system. The “cube law” is rejected as a description, since it assumes uniformity (which is not observed in the data) across electoral systems. Explanations for differences in swing ratio and bias are found in variations in turnout over districts, the extent of the “nationalization” of politics, and, most importantly, in who does the districting or reapportionment. The measures of swing ratio and partisan bias appear useful for the judicial evaluation of redistricting schemes and may contribute to the reduction of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering.