Slip Rate Variations Research Articles

Rupture segmentation on the East Anatolian fault (Turkey) controlled by along-strike variations in long-term slip rates in a structurally complex fault system

Abstract The East Anatolian fault in Turkey exhibits along-strike rupture segmentation, typically resulting in earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) up to 7.5 that are confined to individual segments. However, on 6 February 2023, a catastrophic Mw 7.8 earthquake struck near Kahramanmaraş (southeastern Turkey), defying previous expectations by rupturing multiple segments spanning over 300 km and overcoming multiple geometric complexities. We explore the mechanics of successive single- and multi-segment ruptures using numerical models of the seismic cycle calibrated to historical earthquake records and geodetic observations of the 2023 doublet. Our model successfully reproduces the observed historical rupture segmentation and the rare occurrence of multi-segment earthquakes. The segmentation pattern is influenced by variations in long-term slip rate along strike across the kinematically complex fault network between the Arabian and Anatolian plates. Our physics-based seismic cycle simulations shed light on the long-term variability of earthquake size that shapes seismic hazards.

A geometric analysis of slip rate variation with depth in listric normal faults

Fault slip rates are critical parameters for assessing regional strain accumulation and seismic hazards. Previous investigations on fault slip rates primarily concentrated on shallow depths or along the strike of the fault, neglecting the variation with depth. This study focuses on listric normal faults, commonly observed in tectonic extensional zones, and investigates the variation of slip rates with depth. The relationships between slip rates along different fault segments are derived based on the inclined shear geometric models. The study finds that slip rates on different segments of listric normal faults are generally not equal and depend on the type of bend (concave or convex), the dip angles of the fault segments and axial surfaces. Inferring regional horizontal extension solely from shallow segment displacements or growth strata thickness may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In accordance with the methodology outlined in this paper, slip rates at various depths along the Chengnan Fault for the three time intervals: 24.6–33 Ma, 33–43.5 Ma, and 43.5–65 Ma, are estimated. The results of this study offer valuable insights into the kinematics of listric normal faults, facilitating a better comprehension of the discrepancy between slip rates measured at surface and slip rates measured at depth.

Impact of Variable Fault Geometries and Slip Rates on Earthquake Catalogs From Physics‐Based Simulations of a Normal Fault

AbstractPhysics‐based earthquake simulators have been developed to overcome the relatively short duration and incompleteness of historical earthquake and paleoseismic records, respectively. These simulators have the potential to be a useful addition to seismic hazard assessment as they produce millions of synthetic earthquakes over thousands to millions of years using predefined fault geometries and slip rates. Due to the sparsity of fault data and the computational expense of the modeling, it is common to simplify earthquake simulator input parameters. Fault surfaces are typically characterized by simplified mapped traces and constant dip with depth, with slip rates that are often assumed to be uniform over the fault plane. This study uses the well‐defined 3D geometry of an active normal fault in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand, the Cape Egmont Fault, to demonstrate the impact of using nonuniform slip rates and nonplanar fault geometries on the resulting synthetic earthquakes from the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Adopting variable slip rates that decrease to zero along the fault tipline (rather than uniform slip rates) reduces unrealistically high nucleation rates of seismicity along fault edges. Introduction of complex 3D fault geometries, including fault segmentation and bends on kilometer scales, and variable slip rates produces less characteristic earthquake populations, increasing the number of M6‐7 moderate‐large magnitude events. Incorporation of variable fault geometries and slip rates in physics‐based simulators may modify the seismic hazards estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogs.

2000 yrs of earthquakes inferred from subsidence events on the Imperial fault, California: Effect of lake-level changes and implication for variable slip rates

The Salton Trough has filled repeatedly with freshwater Lake Cahuilla from avulsions of the Colorado River. The relationship between lake fillings and large earthquakes is a topic of debate. From a new study on the Imperial fault applying cone penetrometer soundings, we show that the long hiatus in lake fillings between about ca 100 BCE and 950 CE resulted in accelerated slip in the few hundred years after re-inundation, an observation that is also seen on the San Andreas and southern San Jacinto faults. A regional, basin-wide signal of transient accelerated slip is interpreted to be the result of the effects of increased pore pressure on fault strength resulting from the 100 m of water load during full lake inundations. These results demonstrate the effects of dramatically increasing pore pressure, termed the reservoir induced seismicity effect, on fault activity and explain the current “earthquake drought” on the southernmost section of the San Andreas fault.

Load characteristics analysis of tractor drivetrain under field plowing operation considering tire-soil interaction

The drivetrain of a tractor is prone to fatigue failure under heavy load plowing operations. The load variation of its transmission shafting is affected by the "machine-soil" interaction environment, especially the tire-soil interaction. Therefore, a load transfer model of a tractor plowing operation composed of a drivetrain model, tire-soil interaction model, and tractor dynamics model was established, to analyze the load characteristics of the transmission shafting. For verifying the proposed model, the field plowing process was carried out experimentally. The driving wheels and shafting were discussed as influenced by the slip rate variation in the tire-soil interaction model. The fitting distribution characteristics of cycle average and range of transmission shafting in the rain-flow domain were obtained. The results showed that the established model can accurately simulate the speed and dynamic load characteristics of the tractor plowing operation. The driving wheel loads increased with the increase of slip rate except for the motion resistance. When the slip rate exceeded 25 %, loads of the transmission shafts changed steadily. The reliability of fit R2 of the statistical distribution for transmission shafting load was greater than 0.94. The mean and variance of rear-drive half shaft torque were the largest, where fatigue failure was more likely to occur. The above theoretical model and results provide practical guidance for structural optimization design, fatigue durability analysis and reliability loading test of the tractor drivetrain.

Improved Geological Slip Rate Estimations in the Complex Alhama de Murcia Fault Zone (SE Iberia) and Its Implications for Fault Behavior

AbstractFault slip rate is one of the most crucial parameters to characterize earthquake occurrence in fault‐based seismic hazard assessments (SHA). Accordingly, paleoseismic studies have increasingly focused on constraining this parameter in active faults worldwide. We present a comprehensive paleoseismic study in the Alhama de Murcia Fault (AMF), one of the most active faults in SE Spain and source of destructing earthquakes such as the 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca event. Contrasting with previous studies, we integrate paleoseismic data from four fault strands in the AMF and, based on trench slip analysis and numerical dates, we derive slip rate estimates of each strand over the whole transect and assess their time variability. The AMF has a minimum net slip rate between 1.35+0.16/−0.10 and 1.64+0.16/−0.11 mm/yr for the past 18 ± 1 to 15.2 ± 1.1 ka. These results prove the importance of accounting for the complete sections of a geological structure as they are almost twice the previous estimates for a single fault branch. Slip rate variability is identified in the AMF, with cyclic acceleration‐quiescence patterns that could be related to stress field changes driven by fault interaction or synchronicity with neighboring faults (e.g., Carrascoy). We hope that the data presented here motivates their inclusion into forthcoming fault‐based SHAs. In this regard, limitations related to the lack of paleoseismic data for one fault strand, along with poor characterization of the strike component of slip and insufficient age control of the units for another strand are highlighted and need to be accounted for by modelers.

Steady Long‐Term Slip Rate on the Blue Cut Fault: Implications for Strain Transfer Between the San Andreas Fault and Eastern California Shear Zone

AbstractThe Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) province of California contains a system of E‐W‐trending left‐lateral faults accommodating clockwise block rotation between the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system in the Coachella Valley and the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) in the Mojave Desert. Building upon established geometric relationships, we estimate that this rotation across the ETR may transfer right‐lateral strain from the SAF to the ECSZ at a time‐averaged rate of ∼4.3–7.7 mm/yr. Through geomorphic mapping and the analysis of 38 10Be surface exposure samples, we derive a long‐term slip rate of 1.26 ± 0.50 (2σ) mm/yr over the late Pleistocene, yet analysis of the displacement record indicates a rate decrease ∼71 kya. While a rate change on this fault could have implications for possible plate boundary reorganization in this area, we argue that this slip rate variability more likely reflects routine fluctuation about a steady lifetime slip rate.

Interplate Slip Rate Variation Between Closely Spaced Earthquakes in Southern Mexico: The 2012 Ometepec and 2018 Pinotepa Nacional Thrust Events

AbstractOn 20 March 2012, a Mw 7.5 thrust earthquake started a series of seven large events (7.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.2) that struck central Mexico during a period of 9 years (2012–2021). Before this event, the Mexican subduction zone did not experience significant subduction earthquakes (Mw > 7.0) for at least 12 years. Five of the events occurred in the plate interface, resulting in a significantly larger interplate slip rate in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. In this study, we explore how an aseismic slip transient caused by the 2012 Mw 7.5 earthquake affected the Oaxaca region and whether this earthquake had a causal relationship with the Mw 7.2 Pinotepa Nacional event that took place six years later in a nerby zone. To this end, we identified and analyzed characteristic repeating earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone for assessing the plate interface slip history and found a remarkable increase in the aseismic slip rate following the 2012 mainshock, which suggests a long‐standing slip perturbation near the trench in Oaxaca that continued until the Pinotepa Nacional earthquake of 2018.

Recent Surface Rupturing Earthquakes along the South Flank of the Greater Caucasus near Tbilisi, Georgia

ABSTRACTFault characterization is a critical step toward improving seismic hazard assessment in the Georgian Greater Caucasus but is largely absent from the region. Here, a paleoseismic trench near the capital city of Tbilisi revealed evidence for recurring surface rupture on a shallowly north-dipping thrust fault. The fault has broken through the overturned forelimb of a fault-propagation anticline that folds a sequence of soils and deposits. Stratigraphic relationships and radiocarbon dating of terrestrial gastropod shells corrected for “old carbon” age anomalies loosely constrain three surface-deforming earthquakes on this fault between ∼40 and ∼3 ka, with variable dip-slip displacements ranging between 0.35 and ∼3 m, and a cumulative displacement of 6.5 ± 0.85 m. Single event slips and recurrence intervals (11, 25, and 3 ka open interval) at this site demonstrate apparent slip rate variations of 3−7× over the last two earthquake cycles on the fault, which we attribute to possible rupture complexity involved in crustal thrust fault earthquakes. This study provides a structural and geochronologic template for future paleoseismic investigations in the Greater Caucasus while highlighting some of the challenges of conducting seismic source characterization in this region.

Late Quaternary faulting in the southern Matese (Italy): implications for earthquake potential and slip rate variability in the southern Apennines

Abstract. We studied the Gioia Sannitica active normal fault (GF) along the southern Matese fault (SMF) system in the southern Apennines of Italy in detail. The current activity of the fault system and its potential to produce strong earthquakes have been underestimated so far and are now defined here. Precise mapping of the GF fault trace on a 1:20 000 geological map and point and line data on the geometry, kinematics, and slip rate of the faults forming the SMF system are made available in electronic format. The GF, and the entire fault system along the southern Matese mountain front in general, is made of slowly slipping faults with a long active history revealed by the large geologic offsets, mature geomorphology, and complex fault patterns and kinematics. Present activity has resulted in late Quaternary fault scarps resurrecting the foot of the mountain front and Holocene surface faulting. The resurrected mountain front indicates variation in slip rate through time. The slip rate varies along-strike, with a maximum Upper Pleistocene–Holocene slip rate of ∼ 0.5 mm yr−1. Activation of the 11.5 km long GF can produce up to M 6.2 earthquakes. If activated together with the 18.5 km long Ailano–Piedimonte Matese fault (APMF), the seismogenic potential would be M 6.8. The slip history of the two faults is compatible with a contemporaneous rupture. The observed Holocene displacements on the GF and APMF are compatible with activations during some poorly constrained historical earthquakes, such as the 1293 (M 5.8), 1349 (M 6.8; possibly a southern prolongation of the rupture on the Aquae Iuliae fault), and 346 CE earthquakes. A fault rupture during the poorly constrained 847 CE earthquake is also chronologically compatible with the dated displacements.

D\xe9collement geometry controls on shallow very low frequency earthquakes

Recent studies have documented the occurrence of shallow very low frequency earthquakes (VLFE) in subduction zones. The heterogeneity of the materials or stresses that act on the plate interface results in the variable slip rate. Stress on the décollement can be controlled by the décollement geometry and the regional stress, which is also able to control the material properties. We determined the distribution of stress along the shallow portion of the décollement in the Nankai Trough using a three-dimensional (3D) seismic survey and regional stress analysis to construct maps of normalized slip tendency (Ts′) and dilation tendency (Td). Alignments of VLFEs trend parallel to the trends of {T}_{s}^{^{prime}} and {T}_{d}. On the other hand, very low {T}_{s}^{^{prime}} and {T}_{d} areas probably act as barriers that limit the number of VLFEs that can migrate towards the trench. Because the {T}_{s}^{^{prime}} and {T}_{d} distributions are derived only from the décollement geometry and the regional stress without incorporating any data on sediment properties, the consistency between the trends suggests that the décollement geometry is the primary control on VLFE activity.

Slip Rates Along the Laohushan Fault and Spatial Variation in Slip Rate Along the Haiyuan Fault Zone

AbstractThe spatial pattern of slip rates along the Haiyuan fault zone may reveal deformation process along the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. By applying the 3D_Fault_Offsets code, we reevaluated the displacements of offset markers displaced by the Laohushan fault, the central segment of the Haiyuan fault zone. We introduced the Bayesian Age Model approach to provide optimum age control for the preserved offset markers. Multiple offsets and ages constrain the late Pleistocene slip rate to 4.4–4.8 mm/yr. The spatial pattern of strike‐slip rates of the Haiyuan fault zone indicates that the Madongshan and Liupanshan could be the main uplifts that absorbed the left‐lateral motion along the Haiyuan fault zone, due to a restraining bend between the Haiyuan and Qishan‐Mazhao fault zones. Furthermore, uniform slip rates along the main segments and slip rates decreasing toward fault tips are widely observed along some intensively studied strike‐slip faults, such as the Altyn Tagh, Kunlun, Death Valley‐Fish Lake Valley, Denali, San Andreas and Alpine faults. The results suggest that the constancy or similarity of the slip rates along the strike is closely related to block rotation and internal deformation, and the slip rates of strike‐slip faults usually change at the fault tip area converting from horizontal to vertical motion. In addition, strike‐slip fault can also take slip off of the main fault and distribute it between multiple active parallel strands.

Large-scale Crustal Deformation, Slip-Rate Variation and Strain Distribution along the Kunlun Fault (Tibet) from Sentinel-1 InSAR Observations (2015-2020)

Large-scale Crustal Deformation, Slip-Rate Variation and Strain Distribution along the Kunlun Fault (Tibet) from Sentinel-1 InSAR Observations (2015-2020)

Interplay Between Crustal‐Scale Thrusting, High Metamorphic Heating Rates, and the Development of Inverted Thermal‐Metamorphic Gradients: Numerical Models and Examples From the Caledonides of Northern Scotland

AbstractUnderstanding the processes that produce high prograde metamorphic heating rates and the development of inverted metamorphic sequences in collisional thrust belts remains a fundamental challenge for tectonics and metamorphic petrology. New 2D finite element models of crustal‐scale thrusts with variable slip rates (10, 20, 35, 50 km Myr−1) are used to examine how thrust sheet emplacement contributes to these processes. In the models, average prograde heating rates of 31–118 °C Myr−1 are observed in the footwall, with maximum transient heating rates of ∼167 °C Myr−1 occurring at the highest slip rate. Also, thrust sheet emplacement produces an inverted thermal gradient in the model footwall. At slip rates of 10 km Myr−1, heating magnitudes >200 °C are observed >7 km structurally beneath the thrust plane. At slip rates of 20–50 km Myr−1, models produce thermal penetration depths of 4–5 km for similar heating magnitudes. Petrologically determined heating rates for thrust footwalls in the Scandian orogenic wedge of northern Scotland mostly yield rates consistent with model results (10–230 °C Myr−1). The model‐derived magnitude of inverted thermal gradients is also similar to those indicated in texturally determined deformation temperature transects across the Scandian orogenic wedge (100 °C–180 °C). Combined, these results indicate that high heating rates can be produced by fault slip at typical plate velocities. Additionally, this implies that crustal‐scale thrusts are likely to produce inverted metamorphic sequences in most systems, provided that P‐T conditions during slip allow for metamorphic or recrystallization processes that would preserve evidence for such features.

Latest Pleistocene–Holocene Incremental Slip Rates of the Wairau Fault: Implications for Long‐Distance and Long‐Term Coordination of Faulting Between North and South Island, New Zealand

AbstractWe use high‐resolution lidar microtopographic data and luminescence dating to constrain incremental Holocene–latest Pleistocene slip rates for the Wairau fault, a major dextral strike‐slip fault in the Marlborough Fault System, South Island, New Zealand. Our data come from two closely spaced study areas along the structurally simple, central portion of the fault: The well‐known Branch River terrace flight, and a previously undated series of offset risers and channel features several km to the east that we refer to as the Dunbeath site. Field work and mapping using lidar‐derived topography yields revised or novel measurements of nine fault offsets. We date those features using a post‐IR50‐IRSL225 infrared stimulated luminescence dating method, and a stratigraphically informed Bayesian age model. The dated slip history of the Wairau fault is further constrained using newly cataloged offset measurements collected along a ∼35 km stretch of the fault, and available paleoseismic data. Incremental slip rates are precisely computed using a Monte Carlo resampling scheme. Our results provide a nearly earthquake‐by‐earthquake record of incremental slip, with pronounced variations in incremental slip rate spanning multiple millennia and tens of m of slip. These extreme, multi‐millennial variations in fault slip rate have basic implications for earthquake occurrence, plate boundary lithosphere behavior, and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

Normal Fault Kinematics and the Role of Lateral Tip Retreat: An Example From Offshore NW Australia

AbstractUnderstanding how normal faults grow is key to determining the tectono‐stratigraphic evolution of rifts. According to recent studies, normal faults tend to grow in two temporally distinct stages: a lengthening stage, followed by a throw/displacement accumulation stage. However, this model is still debated and not widely supported by many additional studies. Relatively few studies have investigated what happens to a fault as it becomes inactive, that is, does it abruptly die, or does the at‐surface trace‐length progressively shorten by so‐called tip retreat? We, here, use a 3D seismic reflection data set from the Exmouth Plateau, offshore Australia, to develop a three‐stage fault growth model for seven normal faults of various sizes and to show how the throw‐length scaling relationship changes as a fault dies. We show that during the lengthening stage, which lasted <30% of the faults’ lives, faults reached their near‐maximum lengths, yet accumulated only 10%–20% of their total throw. During the throw/displacement accumulation stage, which accounts for c. 30%–75% of the faults’ lives, throw continued to accumulate along the entire length of the faults. All of the studied faults also underwent a stage of lateral tip‐retreat (last c. 25% of the faults’ lives), where the active at‐surface trace‐length decreased by up to 25%. The results of our study may have broader implications for fault growth models, slip rate variability during fault growth, and the way in which faults die, in particular the role of lateral tip‐retreat.

Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners

The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.

Slip Rate Variation During the Last ∼210 ka on a Slow Fault in a Transpressive Regime: The Carrascoy Fault (Eastern Betic Shear Zone, SE Spain)

Fault slip rate variability over time is a crucial aspect for understanding how single faults interact among each other in fault systems. Several studies worldwide evidence the occurrence of high activity periods with clustering of events and synchronization among faults, followed by long periods of low activity (super-cycles). The increasing gathering of evidence of these phenomena is making fault hazard models quickly evolving and challenging seismic hazard assessment. However, in moderately active fault systems, a determination of fault slip rates can present large uncertainties, that have to be carefully considered when slip rate histories are determined. In this work, we estimate the variation of slip rate in the last ∼210 ky of the NE segment of the left-lateral reverse Carrascoy Fault, one of the main faults forming the Eastern Betic Shear Zone in SE Spain. We study two selected field sites where we have been able to measure offsets and date the sediments along with uncertainties. The first site shows a progressive discordance drawn by different calcretes developed on alluvial deposits. The vertical throw is calculated by modeling the growth of the discordance. The vertical slip rates are estimated dating the deformed calcretes by Uranium Series and by comparing them with a complete regional calcrete dates database compiled from the literature. On the second site, we analyze the geomorphology of different Upper Pleistocene alluvial fans, where three incised channels are offset by the fault, providing the net slip for the last ∼124 ky. We discuss the influence of different factors on the estimate of net slip rates using data from different sources. This analysis highlights the importance of determining an accurate fault geometry and how local data can provide misleading deformation rates. Our results suggest the existence of long periods of low activity disturbed by short high activity periods. Such a pattern of activity along time is defined for the first time in the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, with interesting implications in the seismogenic behavior of the rest of the slow faults within the region.

Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the eastern Makran subduction and the Chaman transform fault, Pakistan: Emphasis on the source characterization of megathrust

Abstract Seismic source characterization (SSC) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in regions characterized by subduction megathrust involves a considerable ambiguity. Lack of detailed geologic, seismic, and geodetic data increases the uncertainties. The enigma is enhanced in regions where thin-skinned accretionary prism faults are part of active deformation. In this study, a planar SSC model for seismically active eastern Makran subduction zone, its associated accretionary prism faults and Chaman transform fault zone is proposed based on a kinematic block model accounting strain partitioning. Sensitivity tests for various parameters of the SSC model are performed by computing peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for 475-year return period. Among alternative magnitude distribution models, the truncated exponential model gives ~10% higher PGA values than the composite recurrence model, which is favored by the observed subduction seismicity. Especially in gently dipping subduction zones such as Makran, estimated PGA values and their spatial distribution are highly sensitive (changing up to 0.3 g) to the megathrust interface geometry near the surface, dip amount, and defined depth limits. Gentler and deeper extending subduction interface maximizes the rupture width and results in higher PGA values towards inland, while the inclusion of shallow aseismic portion produces larger PGA values near the trench. Through eastward transition from subduction to transform motion, thrust faults within the Makran accretionary prism bend northward, forming oblique fault systems with higher slip rates and accommodate part of the compression in accordance with the lateral slip rate variations identified on the Chaman transform fault zone. Using the selected SSC model, the PGA values for short return period (475-year) are estimated to be between 0.5 g and 0.7 g within the accretionary prism down to the trench across the Makran subduction and along southern section of Chaman transform fault zone where slip rates are higher relative to the north.

Holocene to latest Pleistocene incremental slip rates from the east-central Hope fault (Conway segment) at Hossack Station, Marlborough fault system, South Island, New Zealand: Towards a dated path of earthquake slip along a plate boundary fault

AbstractGeomorphic field and aerial lidar mapping, coupled with fault-parallel trenching, reveals four progressive offsets of a stream channel and an older offset of the channel headwaters and associated fill terrace–bedrock contact at Hossack Station along the Conway segment of the Hope fault, the fastest-slipping fault within the Marlborough fault system in northern South Island, New Zealand. Radiocarbon and luminescence dating of aggradational surface deposition and channel initiation and abandonment event horizons yields not only an average dextral rate of ∼15 mm/yr since ca. 14 ka, but also incremental slip rates for five different time periods (spanning hundreds to thousands of years) during Holocene to latest Pleistocene time. These incremental rates vary through time and are, from youngest to oldest: 8.2 +2.7/−1.5 mm/yr averaged since 1.1 ka; 32.7 +∼124.9/−10.1 mm/yr averaged over 1.61–1.0 ka; 19.1 ± 0.8 mm/yr between 5.4 and 1.6 ka; 12.0 ± 0.9 mm/yr between 9.4 and 5.4 ka, and 13.7 +4.0/−3.4 mm/yr from 13.8 to 9.4 ka, with generally faster rates in the mid- to late Holocene relative to slower rates prior to ca. 5.4 ka. The most pronounced variation in rates occurs between the two youngest intervals, which are averaged over shorter time spans (≤1700 yr) than the three older incremental rates (3700–4500 yr). This suggests that the factor of ∼1.5× variations in Hope fault slip rate observed in the three older, longer-duration incremental rates may mask even greater temporal variations in rate over shorter time scales.