Seasonal Rainfall Variability Research Articles

Future precipitation projection in Bangladesh using SimCLIM climate model: A multi‐model ensemble approach

AbstractAppraisal of the long‐term precipitation trends and variability is crucial for sustainable water resources management. This research intended to evaluate Bangladesh's monthly, seasonal, and annual spatiotemporal rainfall variability using 40 global climate models for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Statistical downscaling climate model (SimCLIM) was used for downscaling and ensemble projection of rainfall in near (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100) futures. Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect future rainfall trends. The results revealed a significant increasing trend in rainfall in near and middle futures for RCP4.5 and in all three future periods for RCP8.5 at all meteorological stations of Bangladesh during significant rainfall months (May–October). The results also showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in dry months (December–January) at many stations. The highest increase in rainfall was projected in June at a rate of 0.10–1.11 mm·year−1 for RCP4.5 and 3.34–4.98 mm·year−1 for RCP8.5 in different future periods. Monsoon rainfall showed the highest increase, and winter rainfall the lowest increase for all RCPs and future periods. The increase in annual precipitation over Bangladesh was projected 2.76–5.98% in three future periods for RCP4.5 and 6.98–26.44% for RCP8.5. These outcomes indicate a possible increase in floods severity and frequency in Bangladesh in the future.

Evaluation of Long-Term Trends of Rainfall in Perak, Malaysia

This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal seasonal and annual trends of rainfall indices in Perak, Malaysia, during the last 35 years, as any seasonal or spatial variability in rainfall may influence the regional hydrological cycle and water resources. Mann–Kendall and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests were used to assess seasonal and annual trends. Precipitation concentration index was used to estimate variations in rainfall concentration, and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the spatial variability of rainfall. It was found that most of the rainfall indices are showing decreasing trends, and it was most prominent for the southwest monsoon season with a decreasing rate of 2.20 mm/year. The long-term trends for seasonal rainfall showed that rainfall declined by 0.29 mm/year during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, the northeast and the inter-monsoon seasons showed slight increases. Rainfall decreased gradually from 1994 to 2008, and the trend became more pronounced in 2008. On a spatial basis, rainfall trends have shifted from the western regions (i.e., −19 mm/year) to the southeastern regions (i.e., 10 mm/year). Overall, slightly decreasing trends in rainfall were observed in Perak Malaysia.

Assessment of Seasonal Variation of Rainfall Over Tropical Monsoon Zone of Nigeria

This study was aimed at investigating the seasonal variation of rainfall in Port-Harcourt (tropical monsoon climate). Specifically, it also aims at investigating the rainfall pattern in Port-Harcourt Nigeria, August break trend in the study area, the season's dominant in the area, and to estimate the rainfall rates. This investigation was carried out using atmospheric data of rainfall and temperature from Nigerian Meteorological agency (NIMET), for a period of 10 years (2009-2018). Results from the analysis shows that there is seasonal variation of rainfall in the study area, and August break was experienced in all the years except in 2009, 2014 and 2016. Rainfall was observed to be maximum in June for four years (from 2013-2015 and in 2018 respectively. In 2009 and 2017, the maximum rainfall were observed in July with average amount of (439mm and 521.1mm) respectively. In 2010 and 2012, the maximum rainfall were observed in September with average value of (454.1mm and 409.4mm); however it was observed in 2011 and 2016 that maximum rainfall occurred in May with average rainfall of 322.8mm and in August with average rainfall amount of 428mm, respectively. Also for the dry season, minimum temperature was observed mostly in December with 0mm rainfall. Thus raining season begins in March till November in the study area, while dry season is observed in December, January and February. The season dominant in the study area is the rainy season; from calculation rain rate is maximum in 2018 with 158.2mm/hr, and minimum in 2011 with 107.6mm/hr.

Improving irrigation management on hillslope pastures

Improving irrigation management in hillslope catchments to mitigate water and nutrient losses requires a better understanding of soil hydrology. A field trial was set up in a small catchment on a centre-pivot irrigated dairy farm. Runoff was monitored over two irrigation seasons across a hillslope and at the catchment outlet. Seasonal rainfall variability influenced the start, frequency and amount of irrigation applied. Irrigation stared earlier in the second season due to a large soil moisture deficit. Nearly 40% of the runoff events in the second season were directly linked to irrigation.
 The APSIM model was used to investigate the effects irrigation management on runoff and pasture production. Simulations suggest that changing irrigation could increase pasture yield by 10%, but lead to potentially greater runoff. Using soil moisture to control irrigation improved performance, although where soil moisture was monitored was important. Using frequent and smaller application depths resulted in yield increase and less runoff. Simulation of variable rate irrigation did not produce further gains. The best approach to reduce overall runoff losses was to maintain a soil moisture deficit after irrigation. The impact of changing irrigation management over the whole farm system and its effect on the environment needs further research.

Seasonal evapotranspiration over an invader vegetation (Pteridium aquilinum) in a degraded montane grassland using surface renewal

Study regionCathedral Peak Research Catchments, uKhahlamba Drakensberg mountain range, South Africa. Study focusThe focus was to determine the seasonal pattern of evapotranspiration (ET) over a bracken canopy, which is a product of degradation within the montane grasslands of the uKhahlamba Drakensberg mountains. Surface renewal (SR) was investigated as a viable alternative to eddy covariance for long-term estimation of ET within a remote high rainfall montane landscape. The SR dissipation method was used to observe ET over the bracken canopy for 23 months, across two consecutive years with variable seasonal rainfall timing and amounts. Besides ET, rainfall and energy flux components were observed. New hydrological insights for the regionThe SR dissipation method was shown to be adequate for the long-term estimation of evapotranspiration over a bracken canopy within a remote high summer rainfall montane landscape. The bracken canopy was found to have a distinct seasonal cycle. Autumn was most sensitive to rainfall amount and timing, as late annual rainfall during autumn decreases bracken ET compared to higher summer rainfall followed by a lower autumn rainfall. Comparing the evapotranspiration of bracken from this study to the evapotranspiration of natural grassland in previous studies, the largest difference in evapotranspiration between the canopies occurs in winter.

The role of environmental conditions in regulating long-term dynamics of an invasive seaweed

The mechanisms underpinning long-term dynamics and viability of invader populations in the receiving environment remain largely unknown. We tested the hypothesis that temporal variations in the abundance of a well-established invasive seaweed, Caulerpa cylindracea, in the NW Mediterranean, could be regulated by inter-annual fluctuations in environmental conditions. Abundance data of C. cylindracea, sampled repeatedly between 2005 and 2020 at the peak of its growing season (late summer/early fall), were related to interannual variations in seasonal seawater temperature, wind speed and rainfall recorded during different growth phases of the alga, in both subtidal and intertidal habitats. In both habitats, higher peak of C. cylindracea cover was associated with lower seawater temperature in spring and summer, when the seaweed exits the winter resting phase and starts a period of active growth. In addition, the peak abundance of subtidal C. cylindracea was positively associated with higher autumn wind speed intensity and spring daily total precipitation. Our study reveals the importance of seasonal and interannual variation of abiotic factors in shaping temporal patterns of abundance of C. cylindracea, in both subtidal and intertidal habitats. Identifying the factors underpinning invasive population temporal dynamics and viability is essential to predict the time and conditions under which an invader can thrive, and thus guide management strategies aimed to containing invasions under current and future climates.

The effects of dry versus wet season on the performance of a wastewater treatment plant in North West Province, South Africa

The study was conducted at a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the North West Province of South Africa (SA), to investigate the effect of seasonal variations of rainfall and temperature on the fate of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and on chemical parameters. Both seasons showed variations in terms of rainfall levels and temperature. The average temperatures measured at the final effluent were 14 and 22°C for the dry and wet season, while the rainfall averages ranged between 0.0 and 69.0 mm and 16.0 and 258.9 mm for the dry and wet season, respectively. The impact of rainfall within the two seasons presented a variation in the plant inflow rate of 34 000 and 48 000 m3 during the dry and wet season, respectively. Higher E. coli concentrations were detected before and after chlorination in the wet season (1.86 x 105 and 8.40 x 101 MPN/100 mL) than in the dry season (2.26 x 104 and 5.10 x 101 MPN/100 mL). The recorded values for the chemical parameters in the dry and wet season were within the following ranges: ammonia (0.27 and 3.68 mg/L), chemical oxygen demand (COD) (29.53 and 22.10 mg/L), nitrate (9.21 and 2.40 mg/L) and ortho-phosphate (0.46 and 0.39 mg/L). Though the detections of these indicator parameters were affected differently by the seasonal variations, it is important to note that the efficiency of the WWTP in reducing these indicator parameters proved to be consistent across all seasons, except in the case of ammonia and nitrate. The majority of the studied parameters showed effective compliance when measured against SA regulatory standards (general limits) in both the dry and wet season, with the exception of ammonia during the wet season.

Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa

Climate change has led human beings to take an interest in the study of meteorological and climatic phenomena. In fact, the main impact of climate change on different sectors of society is caused by extreme events since the occurrence of extreme events leads to more impact related to change in mean climate. Unfortunately, the West African region is vulnerable to extreme rainfall impact because its economy is based on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined the seasonal variability of extreme rainfall in West Africa. Eight (8) climate indices were chosen from among the 27 defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the seasonal trends. The indices of the same types (frequency or intensity) were compared to assess the intra-seasonal variation of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that, regardless of the season, the Gulf of Guinea receives more rainfall than the Sahel. This phenomenon is due to the fact that the coastal part of West Africa is under the influence of evaporation which is observed at the Atlantic Ocean and during the monsoon, while the other part is dominated by the desert. Mann-Kendall’s test revealed upward and downward trends during each season. The increase in extreme rainfall trends in the number of consecutive dry days suggests that droughts, due to global warming, could be observed and could have severe consequences in terms of water availability, energy supply, agricultural yields and ecosystems in West Africa. In addition, it can lead to the loss of biodiversity and health issues. It is therefore essential for policymakers or decisions makers to determine strategies and mitigation measures against climate change and its impacts on populations.

The Response of Geopotential Height Anomalies to El Niño and La Niña Conditions and Their Implications to Seasonal Rainfall Variability over the Horn of Africa

In this study, we unveil atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the large-scale tropical teleconnections using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. Composite analyses have been performed to know the impact of large-scale tropical circulations on the Horn of Africa. The composite analysis performed at the geopotential height of 850 Mb and 200 Mb, and precipitation rate (mm/day) during six strong El Niño and La Niña episodes revealed that the large-scale tropical variability induced climate anomalies in space and time. A substantial decrease in upper-level height (200 Mb) has been observed in the study area during El Niño composite years as compared to the La Niña years. During El Niño conditions, the upper-level divergence initiates low-level vertical motion, thereby enhancing convection, however, during La Niña composite years, nearly contrasting situations are noticed in Belg (February to May) season in Ethiopia. However, geopotential height anomalies at 850 Mb are above-normal during the strong El Niño years, suggesting suppressed convection due to vertical shrinking and enhancement of divergence at the lower level. Compared to the Belg (February to May), geopotential anomalies were generally positive during the Kiremt (June to September) season, thereby suppressing the rainfall, particularly in Southern Ethiopia and Northern Part of Kenya. In contrast, an increase in rainfall was observed during the Belg season (February to May).

Assessment of Smallholder Farmers’ Adaptive Strategies on the Effects of Seasonal Rainfall Variability on Maize Yields in Nyeri County

Maize is the leading food crop produced in most parts of the world and a staple food crop in Kenya. Majority of the maize farmers are smallholders due to reduced land sizes as a result of land fragmentation. Maize farming is rain-fed making it more vulnerable to rainfall variability. Over the years, the farmers have increased their resilience and adaptive potential through indigenous knowledge so as to cope with the climate related risks. However, the increasing rainfall variability, frequency and more severe shocks likely surpass their current adaptive strategies. The study assessed existing adaptive strategies of the small-holder maize farmers in Kieni East sub-County in Nyeri Couny to the seasonal rainfall variability effects. The research adopted a mixed research design. Data was obtained from primary and secondary sources. Primary data was obtained using household structured questionnaires. Data was analyzed using descriptive methods and presented using charts and tables. SWOT analysis analyzed several underlying aspects affecting maize farmers in the sub-County. The study found that the farmers have several specific adaptive strategies to the effects of seasonal rainfall variability at their disposal which include but not limited to the use of varieties of maize seeds, seeking training, water harvesting, use of manure and fertilizers. Farmers also respond to rainfall variability by planting maize varieties that are early maturing and drought resistant as well as engaging in alternative farming activities and other economic activities.

Inter‐comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt

AbstractThe global climate models (GCMs) performances of the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5, are evaluated to anticipate the expected changes in climate over Egypt. Thirteen GCMs and their multi‐model ensemble (MME) of both CMIPs were used for this purpose. The future projections were compared for two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP 2–4.5 and 5–8.5). The results revealed improvement in most CMIP6 models in replicating historical rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) climatology over Egypt. The MME of the CMIPs revealed that both could reproduce Egypt's spatial distribution and seasonal climate variability. However, the bias in CMIP5 was higher than that for CMIP6. The uncertainties in simulating seasonal variability of rainfall and temperatures were lower for CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The future projection of rainfall using CMIP6 MME revealed a higher reduction of precipitation (10–26 mm) in the economically crucial northern region than that estimated using CMIP5 (0–17 mm), compared to 133.5 mm rainfall in the base period. CMIP6 also projected a 0.74–1.63°C more rise in Tmax and Tmin compared to CMIP5 by the end of the century. The study indicates more aggravated scenarios of climate changes in Egypt than anticipated earlier, using the CMIP5 models. Therefore, Egypt needs to streamline the existing adaptation and mitigation measures to account for climate projections.

Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different timescales in Germany

Abstract. We model monthly precipitation maxima at 132 stations in Germany for a wide range of durations from 1 min to about 6 d using a duration-dependent generalized extreme value (d-GEV) distribution with monthly varying parameters. This allows for the estimation of both monthly and annual intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves: (1) the monthly IDF curves of the summer months exhibit a more rapid decrease of intensity with duration, as well as higher intensities for short durations than the IDF curves for the remaining months of the year. Thus, when short convective extreme events occur, they are very likely to occur in summer everywhere in Germany. In contrast, extreme events with a duration of several hours up to about 1 d are conditionally more likely to occur within a longer period or even spread throughout the whole year, depending on the station. There are major differences within Germany with respect to the months in which long-lasting stratiform extreme events are more likely to occur. At some stations the IDF curves (for a given quantile) for different months intersect. The meteorological interpretation of this intersection is that the season in which a certain extreme event is most likely to occur shifts from summer towards autumn or winter for longer durations. (2) We compare the annual IDF curves resulting from the monthly model with those estimated conventionally, that is, based on modeling annual maxima. We find that adding information in the form of smooth variations during the year leads to a considerable reduction of uncertainties. We additionally observe that at some stations, the annual IDF curves obtained by modeling monthly maxima deviate from the assumption of scale invariance, resulting in a flattening in the slope of the IDF curves for long durations.

Responsiveness of Dichrostachys cinerea to seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall in central Namibia

Woody plants provide natural archives of climatic variation which can be investigated by applying dendroclimatological methods. Such studies are limited in Southern Africa but have great potential of improving our understanding of past climates and plant functional adaptations in the region. This study therefore investigated the responsiveness of Dichrostachys cinerea to seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall at two sites in central Namibia, Waterberg and Kuzikus. Dichrostachys cinerea is one of the encroacher species thriving well in Namibia. A moving correlation and response function analysis were used to test its responsiveness to seasonal climatic variations over time. Dichrostachys cinerea growth rings showed relationships to late summer warming, lasting up to half of the rainy season. The results also revealed that past temperatures had been fluctuating and their influence on growth rings had been intensifying over the years, but to varying extents between the two sites. Temperature was a more important determinant of ring growth at the drier site (Kuzikus), while rainfall was more important at the wetter site (Waterberg). Growth ring responsiveness to rainfall was not immediate but showed a rather lagged pattern. We conclude that D. cinerea differentially responds to variations in rainfall and temperature across short climatic gradients. This study showed that the species, due to its somewhat wide ecological amplitude, has great potential for dendroclimatological studies in tropical regions.

In the heat of the moment: Economic and non-economic drivers of the weather-crime relationship

Using daily data on the universe of crimes from 600 police stations in Karnataka, India between 2011 and 2016, and daily weather data from a dense network of monitoring stations, we study the daily and seasonal weather-crime relationship. We analyze a wide variety of crime types, and find that violent crimes respond to both daily and seasonal variation in temperatures and rainfall, whereas property crimes only respond to seasonal variation. The results provide novel evidence for the economic theory of crime, but also for the importance of non-economic drivers of violent crime, including violence against women and ethnically marginalized groups, and inter-group conflict.

Climate Change and Variability in the Northeastern Himalayan Region of India

Mountainous regions are considered highly vulnerable to the affects of climate change. The extent of change and variability of climatic parameters is still unexamined in many remote mountainous areas. This paper aims in understanding the change in pattern of rainfall and temperature for a period of 30 years in Mizoram. The analysis of time series changing trend in climatic variables is carried out by using Coefficient of Variation (CV), Mann-Kendall (M-K) and Sen’s Slope estimator. The analysis reveals that high variation is observed for both the variables in all the decadal, three decadal and seasonal change. The CV analysis shows that the highest seasonal rainfall variation occurs during winter and the highest seasonal temperature variation occurs during spring. Mann-Kendall test shows a significant change in rainfall with November showing the highest negative trend of rainfall. The temperature trend analysis in the study also reveals drastic change of temperature. An understanding of climatic change, trend and variability helps in predicting for better natural resources from the susceptibility of climate change.

The Cost of Reproduction in a Cooperatively Breeding Mammal: Consequences of Seasonal Variation in Rainfall, Reproduction, and Reproductive Suppression.

Biological investments, such as reproduction, are influenced by both biotic and abiotic factors and their interactions. The trade-off between reproduction and survival has been well established. Seasonally breeding species, therefore, may exhibit variations in these trade-offs, but there is a dearth of knowledge concerning this. This study investigated the physiological cost of reproduction (measured through oxidative stress) across seasons in the cooperatively breeding highveld mole-rat (Cryptomys hottentotus pretoriae), one of the few seasonal breeding mole-rats. Oxidative stress indicates elevated reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, which can overwhelm antioxidant defences resulting in damaged proteins, lipids and DNA, which overall can reduce longevity and compromise reproduction. Oxidative markers such as total oxidant status (TOS-measure of total peroxides present), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), oxidative stress index (OSI), and malondialdehyde (MDA) are utilised to measure oxidative stress. In this study, breeding and non-breeding male (NBM) and female mole-rats were captured during the dry season (breeding period) and wet season (non-breeding period). There was an apparent cost of reproduction in the highveld mole-rat; however, the seasonality pattern to the cost of reproduction varied between the sexes. Breeding females (BFs) had significantly higher MDA during the breeding period/dry season in comparison to the non-breeding period/wet season; this is possibly a consequence of bearing and nursing offspring. Contrastingly, breeding males (BMs) showed increased oxidative damage in the non-breeding/wet season compared to the breeding/dry season, possibly due to increased activities of protecting their mating rights for the next breeding/dry season, but this was not significant. Interestingly, during the non-breeding period/wet season, non-breeding females (NBFs) are released from their reproductive suppression, which resulted in increases in TOS and OSI, which again indicated that just the mere ability to be able to breed results in a cost (oxidative stress). Therefore we can speculate that highveld mole-rats exhibited seasonal variation in redox balance brought about by variation in abiotic variables (e.g., rainfall), physiology and behaviour. We conclude that physiological changes associated with reproduction are sufficient to induce significant acute oxidative stress in the plasma of female highveld mole-rats, which become alleviated following transition to the non-breeding season/wet period suggesting a possible hormetic effect.

Seasonal Rainfall Variability Effects on Smallholder Farmers’ Maize Yields in Kieni East Sub-County, Nyeri County, Kenya

Agricultural production in Kenya is rainfall dependent, thus rainfall variability affects crop productivity. This paper analyzes seasonal rainfall variability effects on smallholder farmers’ maize yields in Kieni East sub-County between years 2009-2018. Rainfall data was collected from existing meteorological stations in the study area while maize yields data was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Nyeri County. Data analysis entailed use of trend analysis and Karl Pearson correlation at 1% levels of significance. Results of the study showed a decline in the annual maize yields in tons as indicated by a negative gradient of -231.9. During both the long and short rains there was also a decline in maize yields with a negative gradient of -69.19 and -162.71 respectively. The study concluded that at 1% levels of significance there was a strong positive correlation between rainfall and maize yields in the study area. It is recommended that the research findings be used to formulate policies that focus on rainfall variability and its effects on smallholder maize farming so as to improve the yields.

Spatio-temporal variability of climatic parameters across different altitudes of North- Western Himalaya

Climate change impact varies across different altitudinal ranges and demands local specific management strategies for water resource and farming system management. The present study analyses spacio-temporal climate parameters across different altitudes of Himachal Pradesh a hilly state of India. Analysis shows that annually, minimum temperature has significantly decreased by -0.09°C at altitude I (350 - 400 m) while maximum temperature has significantly increased by 0.05°C at altitudes I and II (1400-1500 m) and decreased significantly by -0.08°C at altitude III (2000- 2100 m). Higher regions Altitude – IV (2900-3000 m) received lowest rainfall (746.1 mm) with 30.2 % variation. Seasonal rainfall variability was higher in post monsoon (102 - 174%) and least in monsoon (21 - 57%). Annual rainfall at altitude I is strongly irregular (PCI 20.1 to 22.3), followed by altitude – IV (PCI 15-25); altitude – II irregular (PCI 15-20) and altitude – III moderate to irregular (PCI 12 -19) rainfall. Seasonal Index values for four altitudes fall between 0.91-0.96 revealed that rainfall is irregular and markedly seasonal with longer drier season. Higher wavelet powers in altitude - I and II after 2005 suggests frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence had increased.

Extreme temperature and rainfall events in Bangladesh: A comparison between coastal and inland areas

AbstractAlthough coastal and inland areas of Bangladesh exhibit distinct physiographic and climatic characteristics, spatiotemporal variation of extreme climatic events is poorly understood in these two areas. This study was an attempt to understand the trends in extreme climatic events in coastal and inland areas over the period 1968–2018. The missing data in daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall datasets were imputed using the multiple imputation by chained equations technique and implementing a predictive mean matching algorithm. The imputed datasets were then tested for inhomogeneity using the penalized maximal t and modified penalized maximal F tests. A quantile matching algorithm was then applied to homogenize the datasets, which were then used for generating 13 extreme temperature and 9 extreme rainfall indices. The trends were assessed using the Trend Free Pre‐whitened Mann–Kendall test and the magnitudes of the changes were determined using the Thiel–Sen slope estimator. Additionally, standardized anomalies were calculated to understand the seasonal variability of temperature and rainfall over the past five decades. Results suggested that both coastal and inland areas were warming significantly but coastal areas exhibited a higher rate of warming. Although most of the extreme rainfall indices showed statistically non‐significant changes for coastal and inland stations, there is evidence of localized dryness and increased rainfall at individual stations. In particular, the drought‐prone northwestern region of the country experienced decreased rainfall, which is discordant to the results of previous studies. Findings from this study highlighted important local and regional‐scale changes in extreme climate events that were previously overlooked. The findings of this study can help undertake targeted climate change adaptation strategies to save population and resources.

Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables: Rainfall and Temperature

The Souss-Massa region in southwestern Morocco is characterized by a semi-arid climate with high variability in rainfall. Frequent droughts and flash flood events combined with overexploitation of water resources in recent decades have had a significant impact on the human security and the economy which is mainly based on agriculture, tourism and fishery. For better management of extreme events and water resources under changing climatic conditions, a study was carried out to quantify the seasonal and annual variability and trends in rainfall and temperature over the past three decades with data from three stations. Climatological representative of the Souss-Massa region. The Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope are used to estimate the monotonic trend and magnitude of the trend of the variables, respectively. Statistical analysis of the rainfall series data set highlights that the occurrence of rainfall is unpredictable and irregular and the both the seasonal and annual rainfall trend appears negative (downward) for all the three climatological stations. The minimum temperature shows a remarkable increasing trend both on annual and seasonal scale while the maximum temperature registers a slightly increasing trend. The study presents some new insights on rainfall and temperature trends that will have significant impacts on the surface and groundwater resources of the region under changing climatic conditions. The results can help to prioritize new strategies to mitigate the risk of droughts, of floods and to manage water resources to sustain the dependence of agriculture tourism and fishery sectors in the region. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091765 Full Text: PDF