Regional Variations Research Articles

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms and Insertion/Deletion Variation Analysis of Octoploid and Decaploid Tropical Oil Tea Camellia Populations Based on Whole-Genome Resequencing.

Oil tea camellia (Camellia spp.) is an important woody oil crop with a high nutritional and economic value. Whole-genome resequencing (WGR) technology can provide an in-depth understanding of the genetic background of this plant as well as a reference for breeding research, germplasm resource conservation, and genetic modification. In this study, we analyzed SNP and InDel variations in 49 individual oil tea camellia germplasm samples collected from five populations located in three provinces of China: Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi. The samples were analyzed through WGR after the ploidy of the samples was determined through flow cytometry. A total of 239,441,603 high-quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 23,510,374 high-quality insertion/deletion variation sites (InDels) were obtained. The distribution of SNPs and InDels in different functional regions differed significantly, with a high density of variations in non-coding regions, such as intergenic regions and introns, and a relatively low density of variations in coding regions. Transition was the main type of SNP variation. A population genetic diversity analysis revealed that the sampled oil tea camellia populations exhibited a high genetic diversity and extensive genetic variation. The genetic diversity of the oil tea camellia populations in the Hainan region was higher than inland regions. This study also determined the genetic diversity of and variations between octoploid and decaploid oil tea camellia in the tropics and between Hainan-based and inland oil tea camellia. Such findings provide a reference for the conservation of germplasm resources and the genetic modification of oil tea camellia.

A Coupled Model for Forecasting Spatiotemporal Variability of Regional Drought in the Mu Us Sandy Land Using a Meta-Heuristic Algorithm

Vegetation plays a vital role in terrestrial ecosystems, and droughts driven by rising temperatures pose significant threats to vegetation health. This study investigates the evolution of vegetation drought from 2010 to 2024 and introduces a deep-learning-based forecasting model for analyzing regional spatial and temporal variations in drought. Extensive time-series remote-sensing data were utilized, and we integrated the Temperature–Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), Drought Severity Index (DSI), Evaporation Stress Index (ESI), and the Temperature–Vegetation–Precipitation Dryness Index (TVPDI) to develop a comprehensive methodology for extracting regional vegetation drought characteristics. To mitigate the effects of regional drought non-stationarity on predictive accuracy, we propose a coupling-enhancement strategy that combines the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) with the Informer model, enabling more precise forecasting of long-term regional drought variations. Unlike conventional deep-learning models, this approach introduces rapid convergence and global search capabilities, utilizing a sparse self-attention mechanism that improves performance while reducing model complexity. The results demonstrate that: (1) compared to the traditional Transformer model, test accuracy is improved by 43%; (2) the WOA–Informer model efficiently handles multi-objective forecasting for extended time series, achieving MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ≤ 0.05, MSE (Mean Squared Error) ≤ 0.001, MSPE (Mean Squared Percentage Error) ≤ 0.01, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) ≤ 5%. This research provides advanced predictive tools and precise model support for long-term vegetation restoration efforts.

Spatial and temporal partitioning between eastern gray and fox squirrels in a Central Hardwood forest

Abstract Congeneric fox squirrels (Sciurus niger) and eastern gray squirrels (S. carolinensis) compete for resources within North American temperate forests. Both species exhibit regional variation in morphology and behavior—potentially due to differences in geography, community composition, or ecological pressures between forested regions. While many have studied these species in other forested regions of the United States, recent assessments of partitioning between these species in Central Hardwood forests remain scarce. We investigated spatial and temporal partitioning between squirrel species using photographic captures from camera traps at 2 scales (i.e., camera location and camera cluster) across a 16,058-km2 region of southern Illinois, United States, during January to April 2008 to 2010. We fitted single-season single-species and co-occurrence occupancy models to assess spatial partitioning at both scales and used kernel density analysis to assess temporal partitioning. We recorded 3,044 photographic captures of focal species (n = 918 fox squirrels and 2,126 eastern gray squirrels). Fox Squirrel occupancy was 0.26 ± 0.09 (SE) and 0.50 ± 0.17 at the camera location and camera cluster scales, respectively. Eastern Gray Squirrel occupancy was 0.47 ± 0.07 and 0.84 ± 0.23 at the camera location and camera cluster scales, respectively. Fox Squirrel occupancy increased with further distances to roads and had scale-dependent relationships to forest structure. Eastern Gray Squirrel occupancy increased with more hardwood basal area. Co-occurrence was influenced by distance to road at the camera location scale. We found a moderate level of activity overlap between species (Δ = 0.63, CI = 0.60 to 0.67); however, no evidence of temporal partitioning was observed. Habitat characteristics and spatial scale appear more influential in partitioning eastern gray and fox squirrels in Central Hardwood forests than peak activity.

Thirty Years of Research on Ecosystem Services: The Socio-Economic Role of Forest Visits and Foraging in Enhancing Human Well-Being

This paper examines the socio-economic significance of forest visits and the collection of forest berries and mushrooms (FBMs) in the Czech Republic, emphasising their role in enhancing human well-being and contributing to regional economies. Over a 30-year period, data were collected on the quantities and economic values of FBMs, alongside the intensity of forest visits by the Czech population. This study incorporates a detailed analysis of time series data on FBM collection, exploring trends and fluctuations in the harvested quantities and their economic value. A Lorenz curve analysis reveals significant disparities in the distribution of economic benefits, with a small segment of the population accounting for the majority of the FBM-derived value. Additionally, the research investigates the impact of forest visitation on well-being at the regional level, highlighting the relationship between forest access, visitation intensity, and public health benefits. This study also examines visitors’ expectations, motivations, and perceptions regarding an ideal forest for visitation, providing recommendations for effective marketing strategies. Furthermore, the study explores the contribution of FBMs to net income across different regions, demonstrating substantial regional variation in their economic importance. Notably, the analysis shows that the value of FBMs represents approximately 37% of the net income generated by traditional forestry activities, underscoring its significant economic potential. The findings emphasise the potential of territorial marketing strategies to enhance well-being, particularly in economically disadvantaged regions, and advocate for sustainable forest management practices to protect these valuable resources and ensure equitable access to the benefits provided by forest ecosystems.

Heat impacts on an aging society: a spatio-temporal analysis of heatstroke deaths in Japan

Abstract Climate change, especially through heatwaves, significantly affects human health and is a growing global concern. Concurrently, population aging is occurring worldwide, with many countries experiencing an increase in their elderly populations. As the elderly are particularly susceptible to extreme temperatures and unevenly distributed due to internal migration of younger populations, a spatio-temporal analysis integrating temperature changes and demographic data is essential. This study focuses on Japan, a super-aged society where over 25% of the total population is 65 years or older. We examined the effects of climate and the proportion of the elderly population on heatstroke deaths through spatio-temporal analysis within a Bayesian framework. We estimated the annual relative risk of heatstroke-related deaths at the prefecture level from 2008 to 2019. The results indicate a strong spatial autocorrelation in heatstroke deaths across Japan. The spatio-temporal interaction model was the best-performing, showing that regional and temporal variations significantly impact heatstroke mortality. In this model, a one-degree increase in temperature anomaly was linked to a 0.35 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.46) times higher odds of heatstroke deaths, while a 1% increase in the population aged 65 years or older was associated with 4.85 (95% CI 0.92 to 8.65) times higher odds. We found that not only metropolitan areas but also rural areas, such as the Tohoku and Shikoku regions, face a high risk of heatstroke, emphasizing the need to address the challenges in rural communities. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating temperature changes and demographic data in a spatio-temporal context for heatstroke risk assessment. It demonstrates the profound effects of temperature anomalies and the proportion of the elderly population on heatstroke mortality. This research framework could be applicable to other countries experiencing aging and heatwave issues, aiding in the development of targeted public health interventions.

Quantifying Stream Return Flow of Agricultural Water Using SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY Model in Korean Paddy Fields

In many countries, the irrigation return flow focuses only on surface and subsurface flows. In contrast, South Korea adopts a broader approach, defining the stream return flow as encompassing both quick and delayed return flows, which include subsurface flow and deep percolation. This study proposes redefining the stream return flow to include only the subsurface return flow, excluding deep percolation. We quantified the subsurface return flow and deep percolation using the SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY (SMP) model, confirming that the current definition overestimated the stream return flow in Korea. The results show that the subsurface return flow accounted for 20% to 60% of the total infiltration, with the remaining 40% to 80% contributing to deep percolation and groundwater recharge. These findings reveal significant regional variations in the subsurface return flow rates, underscoring the limitations of applying a uniform stream return flow rate. We propose that allocated management water, subsurface, and quick return flows should be the primary components considered in stream return flow calculations, as the current practice of including delayed return flow leads to overestimated results. This study highlights the challenges in monitoring the subsurface return flow and the need for region-specific models that account for local conditions such as topography, soil characteristics, and climate. Our findings provide a more accurate approach to estimating the subsurface return flow, which is crucial for improving the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural water management in Korea.

Lynch syndrome diagnostic testing pathways in endometrial cancers: a nationwide English registry-based study

BackgroundFor female patients with Lynch syndrome (LS), endometrial cancer (EC) is often their first cancer diagnosis. A testing pathway of somatic tumour testing triage followed by germline mismatch repair (MMR)...

Partial hand and finger amputations in Sweden: an observational study of 6918 patients

BackgroundWe aimed to use open source data to understand the incidence, trends, and regional differences of finger and partial hand amputations on a national level in individuals aged 15 or older in Sweden.MethodsWe analyzed 6,918 patients aged 15 and older who had experienced finger and partial hand amputations. Incidence rates, trends, and regional disparities were assessed using negative binomial regression models and Student’s t-tests. Future trend prediction was performed using Poisson regression.ResultsFinger amputations declined most, followed by partial hand and thumb amputations. Regional variations existed, with Stockholm having the lowest and Gotland highest incidence respectively. Overall, the incidence of finger, thumb and partial hand amputations in Sweden decreased slightly. Future trend analysis indicated decreasing incidence.ConclusionAlthough, lacking in definition, publicly available data can be used for monitoring of finger, thumb, and partial hand amputation incidence on a national level. Sex, age, and regional differences were observed, suggesting the need for targeted interventions to address disparities and mitigate the burden of finger and partial hand amputations on affected individuals.

Cider Terroir: Influence of Regionality on Australian Apple Cider Quality

Understanding how regionality influences the key characteristics of cider will assist the industry to produce a premium and consistent quality product. Three dessert apple varieties were sourced from three (minimum) orchards per region from nine major growing regions across Australia over two seasons. Ciders produced from these apples were analysed for base quality characteristics, including total phenolic content (TPC), pH, total soluble solids (TSS) and titratable acidity (TA). Across both seasons, region had a significant influence on TPC, with the region model explaining approximately 25% of the variation in TPC. TSS and TA were significantly influenced by an interaction between variety and region, with the model accounting for approximately 60% and 75% of the variation, respectively, over both seasons. An interaction between variety and region influenced pH results in the first season, with only mean effects in the second season. A climate model was developed using average rainfall data and growing degree days (GDDs). Differences in climate accounted for most, but not all, of the regional variation observed in cider quality measurements. These results demonstrate that the apple growing region can significantly impact the resulting cider quality. Such findings are critical for supporting cider producers to make informed decisions when sourcing fruit.

Concentric-object and equiangular-object methods to perform standardized regional analysis in renal mpMRI.

Renal multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) sequences, including T1-T2 mapping, Blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD), Renal blood flow (RBF), and Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) from diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), provide insights into kidney function. However, consensus on selecting regions of interest (ROIs) is lacking. This study aims to describe and compare the Concentric Objects (CO) and Equiangular Objects (EO) methods for standardized ROI selection and assess their efficacy in capturing regional variations in renal MRI parameters. Twelve healthy volunteers underwent mpMRI renal scans. ROIs were selected manually and by applying the CO and EO algorithms to each mpMRI sequence. The methods were tested across various subregion configurations. Regional differences in renal MRI parameters were evaluated. CO and EO methods demonstrated statistically significant differences in mpMRI parameters across renal regions. ASL-RBF, BOLD-MRI, and T2-map results indicated substantial variations from the lower to upper kidney areas. This study implemented CO and EO algorithms in renal mpMRI, showing their potential for evaluating cortico-medullary and cranio-caudal profiles. The findings validate the CO method for BOLD and ADC measurements and presented ASL-RBF and T1-T2 map profiles. The EO method's utility needs further validation with renal patients.

The Late Bronze–Early Iron Age transition in Canaan: new insights from Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates

Scholars have used the emergence of Philistine material culture and the destruction of Canaanite palatial centres as key anchors to archaeologically define the transition from the Late Bronze to the Early Iron Age in Canaan. They have not always, however, agreed on the absolute chronology of these events and its relationship with the historical record. Various hypotheses have been put forward, placing them before, during, or after, the collapse of Egyptian rule and its withdrawal from the region, potentially around 1170–1130 BC. Traditional ‘historicist’ approaches to establishing a chronology for the theoretically linked archaeological layers, have often relied on the assumption that ceramic styles, such as diagnostic artefacts, developed and declined uniformly across different sites. This synchronicity was presumed to mirror historical events as recorded in textual sources — arrival of ‘Sea Peoples’ and the palatial system’s violent collapse. Such a perspective may, however, over simplify the complex regional variations and temporal nuances inherent in the archaeological data. Analysis of multiple radiocarbon datasets from Levantine sites reveals that destructive events and shifts in material culture were not synchronous across the region. Bayesian statistical modelling of these datasets indicates that the timing of such occurrences was influenced by unique local factors, rather than following a uniform regional pattern. The absence of Late Helladic IIIC Aegean-like wares at many sites indicates a geographically restricted production and distribution. Datasets from places where such ware appears reflect the likelihood that their production and exchange occurred from the 13th century to c. 1050 BC. Conversely, the majority of destructive events at key Levantine centres appear to be concentrated within a narrower timeframe, c. 1150–1100 BC. That is, although manifesting at different times and to different degrees of intensity across the region, Philistine presence in the Levant predated most of the Late Bronze Age III destruction events.

Identification and Copy Number Variant Analysis of Enhancer Regions of Genes Causing Spinocerebellar Ataxia.

Currently, routine diagnostics for spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) look for polyQ repeat expansions and conventional variations affecting the proteins encoded by known SCA genes. However, ~40% of the patients still remain without a genetic diagnosis after routine tests. Increasing evidence suggests that variations in the enhancer regions of genes involved in neurodegenerative disorders can also cause disease. Since the enhancers of SCA genes are not yet known, it remains to be determined whether variations in these regions are a cause of SCA. In this pilot project, we aimed to identify the enhancers of the SCA genes ATXN1, ATXN3, TBP and ITPR1 in the human cerebellum using 4C-seq, publicly available datasets, reciprocal 4C-seq, and luciferase assays. We then screened these enhancers for copy number variants (CNVs) in a cohort of genetically undiagnosed SCA patients. We identified two active enhancers for each of the four SCA genes. CNV analysis did not reveal any CNVs in the enhancers of the four SCA genes in the genetically undiagnosed SCA patients. However, in one patient, we noted a CNV deletion with an unknown clinical significance near one of the ITPR1 enhancers. These results not only reveal elements involved in SCA gene regulation but can also lead to the discovery of novel SCA-causing genetic variants. As enhancer variations are being increasingly recognized as a cause of brain disorders, screening the enhancers of ATXN1, ATXN3, TBP and ITPR1 for variations other than CNVs and identifying and screening enhancers of other SCA genes might elucidate the genetic cause in undiagnosed patients.

Hybrid modeling approach for precise estimation of energy production and consumption based on temperature variations

This study introduces an advanced mathematical methodology for predicting energy generation and consumption based on temperature variations in regions with diverse climatic conditions and increasing energy demands. Using a comprehensive dataset of monthly energy production, consumption, and temperature readings spanning ten years (2010–2020), we applied polynomial, sinusoidal, and hybrid modeling techniques to capture the non-linear and cyclical relationships between temperature and energy metrics. The hybrid model, which combines sinusoidal and polynomial functions, achieved an accuracy of 79.15% in estimating energy consumption using temperature as a predictor variable. This model effectively captures the seasonal and non-linear consumption patterns, demonstrating a significant improvement over conventional models. In contrast, the polynomial model for energy production, while yielding partial accuracy (R² = 0.65), highlights the need for more advanced techniques to fully capture the temperature-dependent nature of energy production. The results indicate that temperature variations significantly affect energy consumption, with higher temperatures driving increased energy demand for cooling, while lower temperatures affect production efficiency, particularly in systems like hydropower. These findings underscore the necessity for integrating sophisticated models into energy planning to ensure resilience in energy systems amidst climate variability. The study offers critical insights for policymakers to optimize energy generation and distribution in response to changing climatic conditions.

Evaluation of automatic tube current modulation in a CT scanner using a customised homogeneous phantom

Objective.The introduction of automatic tube current modulation (ATCM) has resulted in complex relationships between scanner parameters, patient body habitus, radiation dose, and image quality. ATCM adjusts tube current based on x-ray attenuation variations in the scan region, and overall patient dose depends on a combination of factors. This work aims to develop mathematical models that predict CT radiation dose and image noise in terms of attenuating diameter and all relevant scanner parameters.Approach.A homogenous phantom, equipped with the features to conduct discrete and continuous adaption tests, was developed to model ATCM in a Philips CT scanner. Scanner parameters were varied based on theoretical dose relationships, and a MATLAB script was developed to extract data from DICOM images. R statistical software was employed for data analysis, plotting, and regression modelling.Main Results.Phantom data provided the following insights: Median tube current decreased by 81% as tube potential varied from 80 kVp to 140 kVp. Doubling the DoseRight Index (DRI) from 12 to 24, at 24 cm diameter, produced a 294% increase in mA and a 46% decrease in noise. Mean mA increased by 53% whilst mean noise increased by 5.7% as helical pitch increased from 0.6 to 0.925. Changing rotation time from 0.33s to 0.75s gave a 56% reduction in mean mA and no change in image noise. Increasing detector collimation (n×T) resulted in higher tube currents and lower output image noise values, asnandTwere varied independently. Interpreting these results to apply transformations relevant to each independent variable produced models for tube current and noise with adjusted R-squared values of 0.965 and 0.912, respectively.Significance.The models developed more accurately predict radiation dose and image quality for specific patients and scanner settings. They provide imaging professionals with a practical tool to optimize scan protocols according to patient diameters and clinical objectives.

Dynamics of Polymer Films on Polymer-Grafted Substrates: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation.

For substrate-supported polymer films, the tails of adsorbed chains are generally assumed to play important roles in the propagation of the substrate's effect inside polymer films. The effects of the grafting density and the rigidity of substrate-grafted polymers, the simplest model for the adsorbed tails, on the diffusivity of film polymers are investigated by performing molecular dynamics simulations. An optimal grafting density σo, around the critical grafting density for the transition from "mushroom" to "brush", is found with the most pronounced suppression of diffusivity on the film polymers; i.e., the penetration of the film polymers into the grafting layer reaches the maximum. However, at high grafting density, the crowded and vertically stretched brush excludes the coil-like film polymers, and the suppression is thus reduced. At σo, with an increase in the rigidity of the grafted polymers, the suppression is increased quickly at low rigidity but slowly at high rigidity. The dynamic suppression is attributed to the combination of the conformation change from stretching at low rigidity to tilted orientation at high rigidity and decelerated mobility induced by the rigidity. The stretching conformation enhances, whereas the tilted conformation weakens the interpenetration between the grafted polymers and the film polymers. Our results reflect the importance of both conformational variation and interchain interaction in the interface region.

Regional variations of mechanical responses of IVD to 7 different motions: An in vivo study combined with FEA and DFIS

The abnormal mechanical behaviour of a lumbar intervertebral disc (IVD) is commonly recognized as a direct indicator of intervertebral disc degeneration (IDD). However, current methods cannot evaluate the patient-specific mechanical performance of an IVD in vivo during movement. This study establishes a patient-specific (PS) model that combines the kinematics parameters of the lumbar spine obtained with a dual fluoroscopic imaging system (DFIS) and a finite-element (FE) method for the first time to reveal the mechanical behaviours of IVDs in vivo under seven motions. Three healthy participants were recruited for this study. CT images were obtained to create finite-element models of L3-L5 spine segments. Meanwhile, participants were required to take specific positions including upright standing, flexion, extension, left and right lateral bending, as well as left and right axial torsion in the DFIS. The in vivo kinematic parameters, calculated by registering the CT images with images obtained with DFIS, were considered as loading conditions in FE simulations. Significant differences of von Mises stresses and principal strains were found between PS model and GN model which employing a generalized moment as loading conditions, former resulting in up to 76.74 % lower strain than the GN model. Also, considerable differences were observed for five anatomical regions of the IVD (L3-L5). Under all motions, the stress in the centre region (nucleus pulposus) was the lowest, while the stress in the posterior region was the highest in extension motion. Therefore, activities such as stretching with an extension, should be avoided by patients with a herniated disc, in which the posterior region was the herniation site. The PS model combining in vivo kinematics and FE simulations shows the potential in the design and assessment of patient-specific implants.

The crustal juvenile and reworking in eastern Tibet due to tectonism and magmatism

Crustal thickening in Tibet results from the collision of India and Eurasia. The fine structure of the crust is vital information to detect the tectonic genesis of crustal growth and reworking. Here, we constructed the crustal structure of eastern Tibet and its neighboring areas using depth-domain receiver function imaging. The imaging results reveal widespread low-velocity layers in the mid-crust, alternating high- and low-velocity structures in the lower crust, and regional variations in the velocity at the bottom of the lower crust and the thickness of the entire crust. We propose that the lower crust is juvenile crust, formed by multiphase magmatism and tectonic activity during continental collision. The regional variations in crustal structure can be attributed to differences in the tectonic position of subduction-collision system and the distinct crustal-derived materials that contribute to the formation of the juvenile crust. The low-velocity layers in the mid-crust are more likely to be the product of arc magmatism during the assembly of micro-continents. Based on the constraints of the unique crustal structure, we suggest that tectonic compression and magmatism caused the juvenile and reworking of the Tibetan crust.

Imaging Glucose Metabolism and Dopaminergic Dysfunction in Sheep (Ovis aries) Brain Using Positron Emission Tomography Imaging Reveals Abnormalities in OVT73 Huntington's Disease Sheep.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disease that causes cognitive, movement, behavioral, and sleep disturbances, which over time result in progressive disability and eventually death. Clinical translation of novel therapeutics and imaging probes could be accelerated by additional testing in well-characterized large animal models of HD. The major goal of our preliminary cross-sectional study is to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of the unique transgenic sheep model of HD (OVT73) in positron emission tomography (PET) imaging. PET imaging studies were performed in healthy merino sheep (6 year old, n = 3) and OVT73 HD sheep (5.5 year old, n = 3, and 11 year old, n = 3). Region-of-interest and brain atlas labels were defined for regional analyses by using a sheep brain template. [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose ([18F]FDG) was employed to compare the regional brain glucose metabolism and variations in FDG uptake between control and HD sheep. We also used [18F]fluoro-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine ([18F]FDOPA) to compare the extent of striatal dysfunction and evaluated the binding potential (BPND) in key brain regions between the groups. Compared with healthy controls and 11 year old HD sheep, the 5.5 year old HD sheep exhibited significantly increased [18F]FDG uptake in several cortical and subcortical brain regions (P < 0.05-0.01). No difference in [18F]FDG uptake was observed between healthy controls and 11 year old HD sheep. Analysis of the [18F]FDOPA BPND parametric maps revealed clusters of reduced binding potential in the 5.5 year old and 11 year old HD sheep compared to the 6 year old control sheep. In this first-of-its-kind study, we showed the usefulness and validity of HD sheep model in imaging cerebral glucose metabolism and dopamine uptake using PET imaging. The identification of discrete patterns of metabolic abnormality using [18F]FDG and decline of [18F]FDOPA uptake may provide a useful means of quantifying early HD-related changes in these models, particularly in the transition from presymptomatic to early symptomatic phases of HD.

Effect of police expenditure on crime rate in India

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between law enforcement expenditures, economic indicators and various crime rates in India using data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) spanning from 2001 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data sourced from the NCRB covering violent crimes, property crimes, economic crimes and total crimes under the Indian Penal Code across 27 states and 2 union territories in India. Crime rates per 100,000 people are calculated using projected population figures from the 2001 and 2011 censuses, adjusting for census periods and growth rates. Economic variables such as per capita real gross state domestic product (GSDP) and total police expenditure are obtained from state government sources, adjusted to constant prices. Pooled ordinary least squares analysis is conducted to explore the relationships between crime rates, conviction rate, economic factors and police expenditure over the three-time points: 2001, 2011 and 2021. Findings The study reveals a complex relationship between police expenditure and crime rates across different categories in India. Increased police expenditure is positively associated with higher reporting rates for violent and economic crimes, suggesting that enhanced law enforcement resources may improve crime detection and reporting. However, contrary to some expectations, higher police spending does not necessarily lead to a reduction in overall crime rates. Economic prosperity, measured by per capita GSDP, is found to reduce violent crime rates but is associated with an increase in property and economic crimes, likely due to the greater opportunities for such crimes in wealthier regions. Research limitations/implications The study’s reliance on state-level aggregate data and NCRB crime statistics, which are based on reported incidents, might not fully capture the true extent of criminal activity, particularly in regions with underreporting issues. In addition, the use of projected population data beyond 2001 and 2011 introduces some uncertainty into the analysis. Future research should explore district-level data to better understand regional variations in crime and incorporate social, cultural and innovative policing strategies to provide a more comprehensive analysis. Practical implications Policymakers should recognize the nuanced impacts of police expenditure and economic prosperity on crime rates. While increased law enforcement resources may enhance crime reporting, they do not guarantee a reduction in overall crime rates. Economic growth, while beneficial in reducing violent crimes, may inadvertently increase property and economic crimes due to greater opportunities for criminal activity. These insights suggest the need for targeted interventions that consider both economic factors and law enforcement strategies in crime prevention efforts. Originality/value This study contributes to the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of police expenditure in reducing crime by highlighting its limited impact on overall crime rates in India. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the diverse effects of economic prosperity on different crime types, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to design evidence-based crime prevention strategies that account for socioeconomic disparities and regional contexts.

Women's Participation in the Arab Spring Protests and the Prevalence of Domestic Violence: Evidence From Egypt

During the Arab Spring protests, Egyptian women demonstrated in streets in unprecedented numbers, challenging societal norms about women’s roles and rights. Using a triple difference approach and nationally representative DHS data, this study exploits regional variation in protest intensity and women’s participation in the protests from 2011 to 2014 to examine the changes in women’s risk of experiencing domestic violence. Results show that women experienced a significant decline in their probability of experiencing physical, sexual, and psychological violence from their intimate partners in regions more exposed to women’s political participation in Arab Spring protests. Exploring potential channels, the study finds a significant increase in women’s decision-making power in more affected regions, without significant changes in attitudes toward domestic violence or labor market outcomes. These effects underscore the role of increased visibility of women in public spaces in empowering women and reducing their experience of intimate partner violence. HIGHLIGHTS Egyptian women protested in unprecedented numbers during Arab Spring demonstrations. Exposure to these events changed women’s risk of experiencing intimate partner violence. Women experienced a significant decline in intimate partner violence in more affected regions. Women also experienced an increase in decision-making power within the household.