Variation In Disease Burden Research Articles

Global trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease based on the global burden of disease study 2021: the role of metabolic risk factors

BackgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally. This study aims to evaluate the trends in IHD burden across different socioeconomic regions using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) and to understand the impact of the metabolic risk factors on these trends.MethodsData from GBD 2021 was analyzed to evaluate the global age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASRDALYs) linked to IHD. Key metabolic risk factors evaluated included high systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with further analysis by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI).ResultsResource-abundant regions showed notable reductions in ASDR and ASRDALYs, largely due to effective management of SBP and LDLc, resulting in an EAPC of -3.43 (95% CI: -3.32, -3.53). In contrast, resource-limited regions, particularly among males, experienced stagnation or even increases in IHD burden. The EAPC of ASDR in low-, low-middle-, and middle-SDI regions ranged from − 0.12 (95% CI: -0.04, -0.19) to 0.16 (95% CI: 0.09, 0.23). Among males, the values ranged from 0.22 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.29) to 0.55 (95% CI: 0.47, 0.62). The increase in IHD burden in these regions was primarily driven by rising levels of FPG and BMI. Younger populations (15–49 years) were disproportionately affected, showing increasing exposure to these metabolic risks.ConclusionRegional disparities in IHD burden persist, primarily driven by metabolic risk factors. Resource-abundant regions have benefitted from effective control of SBP and LDLc, whereas resource-limited regions face growing challenges, especially related to FPG and BMI. The use of secondary data from the GBD 2021 database provides a comprehensive global perspective but may not fully capture local variations in disease burden. Targeted public health strategies and early interventions are essential to reduce the growing IHD burden in these vulnerable populations.

Geographic Variation in Disease Burden Among Patients With Severe Persistent Asthma in the United States

Geographic Variation in Disease Burden Among Patients With Severe Persistent Asthma in the United States

Abstract B025: Monitoring response to immunotherapy in lung cancer using cell-free DNA fragmentomes

Abstract BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) continues to be a promising area of research with treatments continuing to show efficacy in late-stage cancers. The detection of disease progression for patients undergoing treatment with this modality remains challenging however given the lack of reliable biomarkers for which to monitor disease. Current methods including imaging can be challenging to evaluate as they do not always capture the timing and nature of clinical responses. Liquid biopsies may offer a solution by allowing for minimally invasive tumor monitoring during therapy. We previously reported on the DELFI Tumor Fraction (DELFI-TF) algorithm, as a tumor- and mutation-naive approach to monitoring using cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomes (Alipanahi et al., AACR 2023). In this study we examine the performance of DELFI-TF in a cohort of patients with metastatic NSCLC treated with ICI. METHODS: Longitudinal blood samples (n=323) were collected from NSCLC patients (n=109) which received ICI therapy. Whole genome sequencing at low coverage (∼4x) was performed following cfDNA extraction. DELFI-TF scores, predicted using fragmentome features, were used to monitor changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels and associated variations in disease burden. Predictions from DELFI-TF were compared to maximum observed mutation allele frequencies (maxMAF) from a targeted sequencing gene panel for the same samples. In order to determine the prognostic performance of DELFI-TF we evaluated ctDNA changes at baseline and within 3 to 9 weeks of ICI initiation. The presence of undetectable DELFI-TF, defined as below the observed limit of blank (LOB) within 3 to 9 weeks of ICI initiation, indicated a molecular response (mR). In contrast, the persistence of DELFI-TF within this interval signified molecular disease progression (mPD). RESULTS: We observed a strong correlation between DELFI-TF predictions and maxMAF (r=0.93, p<0.001). Further, changes in ctDNA predictions from baseline to the first post-treatment timepoint showed a high correlation between DELFI-TF and maxMAF (r=0.94, p<0.001). Patients with a higher disease burden prior to immunotherapy, as predicted by DELFI-TF and maxMAF, had shorter overall survival (OS) compared to patients with a lower disease burden (DELFI-TF: 11.4 v 33.0 months, p=0.006; maxMAF: 7.82 vs low 33.0 months, log-rank p=0.001). Among 79 patients evaluable for molecular response, 28 (35%) were classified as mPD and 51 (65%) were classified in the mR category. Patients with mR attained longer progression free survival (PFS;16.04 v 2.70 months, log-rank p<0.001) compared to those in the mPD group. Furthermore, assessment of landmark PFS at 6 months revealed a significant association between ctDNA molecular response and durable clinical benefit (DCB; p < 0.001, Fisher’s exact test). CONCLUSIONS: DELFI-TF is a low-cost, tumor and mutation naive approach that accurately monitors longitudinal dynamic changes in tumor burden and captures durable therapeutic responses in patients with metastatic NSCLC receiving immunotherapy. Citation Format: Lavanya Sivapalan, Bahar Alipanahi, Jamie E Medina, Bridget Tripp, Zachary L Skidmore, Paola Ghanem, Gavin Pereira, Nisha Rao, Kavya Velliangiri, Caitlin Schonewolf, Noushin Niknafs, Bryan Chesnick, Jennifer Tom, Stephen Cristiano, Peter Bach, Nicholas C Dracopoli, Robert B Scharpf, Victor Velculescu, Lorenzo Rinaldi, Valsamo Anagnostou. Monitoring response to immunotherapy in lung cancer using cell-free DNA fragmentomes [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Liquid Biopsy: From Discovery to Clinical Implementation; 2024 Nov 13-16; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2024;30(21_Suppl):Abstract nr B025.

Global burden and cross-country health inequalities of early-onset colorectal cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2036

PurposeTo explore the worldwide, regional, and country-specific burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) and identify its associated risk factors between 1990 and 2021, and to project its incidence and mortality rates for 2036.MethodsWe acquired data on EO-CRC categorized by gender, socio-demographic index (SDI), and risk factors based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to explore the variation in disease burden. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was performed to forecast the disease burden up to 2036.ResultsGlobally, the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of EO-CRC were estimated at 5.37 (95%UI: 4.91 to 5.86)/100,000, 34 (95%UI: 30.96 to 37.35)/100,000, 2.01 (95%UI: 1.84 to 2.19)/100,000, and 101.37 (95%: 92.85 to 110.18)/100,000 in 2021. The prevalence and incidence rates of EO-CRC showed an ascending trajectory, whilst the DALYs and mortality rates demonstrated a downward trajectory between 1990 to 2021. The high-middle SDI regions and East Asia exhibited the highest EO-CRC burden among the five SDI regions and 21 GBD regions respectively. A low-whole-grains diet was the chief risk factor contributing to EO-CRC. It was predicted that the age-standardized rate (ASR) of EO-CRC incidence would increase by 5.56%, while the ASR of mortality would decrease by 13.9% globally until 2036.ConclusionThe current and future global burden of EO-CRC is heavy and varies significantly across different regions and countries.

Integration of Health Care Modules in Current Health Care Management Systems in India

Health care beyond worldwide boundaries is a critical problem, particularly when the population differs in terms of geographic position, culture, habits, socioeconomic background, medical strategy, and variations in disease burden over time. For countries like India, with a significant percentage of high-end medical experts as well as support and other health care systems, the development and integration of comprehensive and functionally versatile health care management systems are among the most important clinical problems addressed. The central dogma of a country that facilitates adopting a conglomeration will create a dedicated population to provide tailor-made health care in health shield, health protection, and health care delivery; a nation that takes care of a nation. Until now, it has given us E-Health, and offerings have been fine-tuned in research literature. In India, the health care domain is currently breaking the boundaries of knowledge workers in clinical and research domains working with the help of these workhorses (Fletcher-Brown et al. 2021). Many e-governance and public health reform programs in India are under consideration, and many of them are under implementation. This research focuses more on the integration of health care technology relevant to the paper topic within clinical setups, passive provision, and utilization of services for administrative purposes technologically implemented (Das et al. 2023).

Dual diagnosis and their care pathways for help-seeking: A multicenter study from India.

Understanding pathways to dual diagnosis (DD) care will help organize DD services and facilitate training and referral across healthcare sectors. The aim of our study was to characterize the stepwise healthcare and other contacts among patients with DD, compare the characteristics of the first contact persons with common mental disorder (CMD) versus severe mental illness (SMI), and estimate the likelihood of receiving appropriate DD treatment across levels of contacts. This cross-sectional, descriptive study in eight Indian centers included newly enrolled patients with DD between April 2022 and February 2023. The research spans varied geographic regions, tapping into regional variations in disease burden, health practices, and demographics. The study categorized healthcare contacts by using the WHO Pathways Encounter Form. The sample (n = 589) had a median age of 32 years, mostly males (96%). Alcohol was the most common substance; SMI (50.8%) and CMD were equally represented. Traditional healers were a common first contact choice (18.5%); however, integrated DD care dominated subsequent contacts. Assistance likelihood increased from the first to the second contact (23.1% to 62.1%) but declined in subsequent contacts, except for a significant rise in the fifth contact (97.4%). In the initial contact, patients with CMD sought help from public-general hospitals and private practitioners for SUD symptoms; individuals with SMI leaned on relatives and sought out traditional healers for psychiatric symptoms. Recognizing the cultural nuances, advocating for integrated care, and addressing systemic challenges pave the way to bridge the gap in DD treatment.

Impact of diabetes on mortality and hospitalization after dementia diagnosis: Health insurance claims data analysis.

Japan faces a public health challenge of dementia, further complicated by the increasing complications from diabetes within its rapidly aging population. This study assesses the impact of diabetes on mortality and hospitalization among individuals aged ≥75 years with new dementia diagnoses. We analyzed administrative claims data in Japan from 73 324 individuals aged ≥75 years with dementia, of whom 17% had comorbid diabetes. Dementia and diabetes were identified from the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards analysis, and population attributable fractions (PAFs) to evaluate the impact on mortality and hospitalization after dementia diagnosis. One-year mortality and 1-year hospitalization probabilities in individuals with dementia and diabetes (10.3% and 31.7%, respectively) were higher than those without diabetes (8.3% and 25.4%, respectively). The adjusted hazard ratios for individuals with diabetes, as compared to those without, were 1.126 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.040-1.220) for mortality and 1.191 (95% CI, 1.140-1.245) for hospitalization. The PAFs from the comorbidity of dementia and diabetes were 2.2% for mortality and 3.1% for hospitalization. Subgroup analysis showed that the PAFs were highest in men aged 75-79 years and women aged 80-84 years for mortality and in individuals aged 75-79 for hospitalization. During the early postdiagnosis period, comorbid diabetes increases mortality and hospitalization risks in older adults with dementia. The variation in disease burden across age groups underscores the need for age-specific health care strategies to manage comorbid diabetes in individuals with dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 773-781.

Geographic and sociodemographic variations in disease burden, epidemiological trends, and risk factors of early-onset lung cancer: A global analysis.

11169 Background: Exploring the emerging trend of early-onset lung cancer (EOLC) burden is pivotal for guiding the implementation of preventive strategies among young adults. We aimed to provide a comprehensive examination of the geographic and sociodemographic variations in the disease burden, along with epidemiological trends and risk factors associated with EOLC over the past three decades. Methods: EOLC refers to lung cancer diagnosed in individuals aged 20-49 years. Utilizing the GBD 2019 data, we estimated the age-standardised incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for EOLC by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, and geographical location for the period from 1990 to 2019. We investigated the relationships between concomitant risk factors and EOLC incidence at national level, and calculated the DALYs attributable to risk factors. The relative contribution of population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes to the variations in burden of EOLC over study period was measured using the decomposition analysis. Incidence was forecast to 2040 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: A total of 135,704 EOLC cases, equating to a age-standardised incidence rate of 4.0 (95% UI 3.6 to 4.3) per 100,000, were estimated in 2019 worldwide and was the second leading cause of cancer death among young adults, with higher disease burden occurred in males and those from middle and high-middle SDI regions. An overall decreasing trend in burden of EOLC was observed globally; such trends were more pronounced among males and followed a gradient across SDI levels, with the greater decrease observed in high and high-middle SDI regions. Sex, tobacco smoking prevalence, per capita cigarette-equivalent estimates, average age of smoking initiation, ambient ozone pollution, and GDP per capita were independently and significantly associated with EOLC incidence at the population level. Smoking remained the top contributor to burden of EOLC, with the exception of Andean Latin America, North Africa, and the low SDI regions, where ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution from solid fuels ranked as the foremost attributable risk factors. Population growth was the primary driver behind the global increase in EOLC cases in low and low-middle SDI regions, while epidemiological changes accounted for the most substantial reduction in EOLC cases across most regions. The global incidental cases of EOLC was projected to increase by 31.1% in 2040, with a more pronounced increase in females and those from high-middle and middle SDI locations. Conclusions: Our findings underscore significant geographic and sociodemographic disparities in the epidemiological burden of EOLC, emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to devise and apply region-specific, evidence-driven preventive strategies.

Clinical and endoscopic characteristics of patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures in Egypt: a nationwide multicenter study

BackgroundEgypt faces a significant public health burden due to chronic liver diseases (CLD) and peptic ulcer disease. CLD, primarily caused by Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, affects over 2.9% of the population nationwide, with regional variations. Steatotic liver disease is rapidly emerging as a significant contributor to CLD, especially in urban areas. Acid-related disorders are another widespread condition that can significantly impact the quality of life. These factors and others significantly influence the indications and findings of gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures performed in Egypt.AimWe aimed to evaluate the clinico-demographic data, indications, and endoscopic findings in Egyptian patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures in various regions of Egypt.MethodsThis study employed a retrospective multicenter cross-sectional design. Data was collected from patients referred for gastrointestinal endoscopy across 15 tertiary gastrointestinal endoscopy units in various governorates throughout Egypt.Results5910 patients aged 38–63 were enrolled in the study; 75% underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), while 25% underwent a colonoscopy. In all studied patients, the most frequent indications for EGD were dyspepsia (19.5%), followed by hematemesis (19.06%), and melena (17.07%). The final EGD diagnoses for the recruited patients were portal hypertension-related sequelae (60.3%), followed by acid-related diseases (55%), while 10.44% of patients had a normally apparent endoscopy. Male gender, old age, and the presence of chronic liver diseases were more common in patients from upper than lower Egypt governorates. Hematochezia (38.11%) was the most reported indication for colonoscopy, followed by anemia of unknown origin (25.11%). IBD and hemorrhoids (22.34% and 21.86%, respectively) were the most prevalent diagnoses among studied patients, while normal colonoscopy findings were encountered in 18.21% of them.ConclusionThis is the largest study describing the situation of endoscopic procedures in Egypt. our study highlights the significant impact of regional variations in disease burden on the utilization and outcomes of GI endoscopy in Egypt. The high prevalence of chronic liver disease is reflected in the EGD findings, while the colonoscopy results suggest a potential need for increased awareness of colorectal diseases.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019. Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.

Measuring the Burden of Disease in Korea Using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (2008-2020).

The measurement of health levels and monitoring of characteristics and trends among populations and subgroups are essential for informing evidence-based policy decisions. This study aimed to examine the burden of disease in Korea for both the total population and subgroups in 2020, as well as analyze changes in disease burden from 2008 to 2020. We employed the methodology developed in the Korean National Burden of Disease and Injuries Study to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by sex, causes, region, and income level from 2008 to 2020. DALYs were derived by combining years of life lost and years lived with disability. In 2020, the burden of disease for the Korean population was estimated to be 25,439 DALYs per 100,000 population, reflecting a 13.8% increase since 2008. The leading causes of DALYs were diabetes mellitus, followed by low back pain and ischemic stroke. A sex-specific gap reversal was observed, with the disease burden for men surpassing that of women starting in 2017. Furthermore, variations in disease burden were identified across 250 regions and income quintiles. It is imperative to establish appropriate health policies that prioritize the diseases with significantly increasing burdens and subgroups experiencing high disease burdens. The findings of this study are expected to serve as a foundation for developing healthcare policies aimed at improving the health levels of Koreans and achieving health equity.

Change in disease burden associated with influenza and air pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.

This study aimed to estimate the variation in disease burden associated with air pollutants and other respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopted a machine learning approach to calculate the excess mortality attributable to air pollutants and influenza, during the pre-pandemic and pandemic period. In the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were 8762 (95% confidence interval, 7503-9993), and 12,496 (11,718-13,332) excess all-cause deaths in Hong Kong. These figures correspond to 117.4 and 167.9 per 100,000 population, and 12.6% and 8.5% of total deaths in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Compared to the period before the pandemic, excess deaths from all-causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza attributable to influenza A and B significantly decreased in all age groups. However, excess deaths associated with ozone increased in all age-disease categories, while the relative change of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particular matters less than 10 µm (PM10) associated burden showed a varied pattern. A notable shift in disease burden attributable to influenza and air pollutants was observed in the pandemic period, suggesting that both direct and indirect impacts shall be considered when assessing the global and regional burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Geographic variation in disease burden among patients with severe persistent asthma in the United States

BackgroundIn the United States, a few studies have evaluated geographic variation of severe asthma at the subnational level. ObjectiveTo assess state-level geographic variation in the prevalence and characteristics of severe persistent asthma in the United States. MethodsPatients aged above or equal to 12 years with severe persistent asthma were identified using nationally representative data from IQVIA open-source Medical/Pharmacy Claims and PharMetrics Plus databases (January 2019-December 2020). The index date was defined as the patient's earliest qualifying date for a severe asthma diagnosis. Baseline characteristics were measured during the 12-month pre-index period. Outcomes including exacerbation occurrence, asthma control, and medication use were measured during the 12-month post-index period and compared across states using census-level projections. ResultsA total of 2,092,799 patients with asthma were identified; 496,750 (23.7%) met criteria for severe persistent asthma and all inclusion criteria. Mean age was 50.5 years; 68.4% were females. The prevalence of severe persistent asthma varied across states, ranging from 19.6% (New Mexico) to 31.9% (Alaska). Among patients with severe persistent asthma, 40.9% had more than or equal to 1 exacerbation, ranging from 34.2% (Vermont) to 45.6% (Louisiana); 21.1% had uncontrolled disease, ranging from 16.5% (Vermont) to 24.0% (Arizona). Among patients with exacerbations, 13.7% had exacerbation-related emergency department visits or hospitalizations, ranging from 7.0% (North Carolina) to 17.7% (Nevada). Among patients with severe uncontrolled asthma, 15.6% used biologics post-index, ranging from 2.2% (Hawaii) to 27.9% (Mississippi). ConclusionThere is significant variability in severe persistent asthma prevalence and disease burden across US states. Reasons for geographic variation may include differences in socioeconomic/environmental factors or asthma management.

Variable staphyloxanthin production by Staphylococcus aureus drives strain-dependent effects on diabetic wound-healing outcomes

Strain-level variation in Staphylococcus aureus is a factor that contributes to disease burden and clinical outcomes in skin disorders and chronic wounds. However, the microbial mechanisms that drive these variable host responses are poorly understood. To identify mechanisms underlying strain-specific outcomes, we perform high-throughput phenotyping screens on S.aureus isolates cultured from diabetic foot ulcers. Isolates from non-healing wounds produce more staphyloxanthin, a cell membrane pigment. In murine diabetic wounds, staphyloxanthin-producing isolates delay wound closure significantly compared with staphyloxanthin-deficient isolates. Staphyloxanthin promotes resistance to oxidative stress and enhances bacterial survival in neutrophils. Comparative genomic and transcriptomic analysis of genetically similar clinical isolates with disparate staphyloxanthin phenotypes reveals a mutation in the sigma B operon, resulting in marked differences in stress response gene expression. Our work illustrates a framework to identify traits that underlie strain-level variation in disease burden and suggests more precise targets for therapeutic intervention in S.aureus-positive wounds.

Rapid increasing burden of diabetes and cardiovascular disease caused by high body mass index in 1.25 million Chinese adults, 2005–2018

Temporal trends and geographical variations in disease burden for diabetes mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in China have not been fully elucidated. We estimated deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI by age, sex, year, and region from 2005 to 2018 based on pooled data of 1.25 million adults. Approximately 497,430 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 470,520-525,720) deaths for DM and CVD were attributable to high BMI in China in 2018, with 453,750 deaths from CVD and 43,700 deaths from DM. Between 2005 and 2018, there was a 17.35% increase in age-standardized mortality rate for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI. The high BMI-related DM and CVD YLL rates increased from 127.46 (95% UI 108.70-148.62) per 100,000 people aged 20-24 years to 5,735.54 (95% UI 4,844.16-6,713.53) per 100,000 people aged ≥80 years, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rate for high BMI-related DM and CVD in northeast, northwest, and circum-Bohai Sea regions of China. The disease burden for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI increased substantially between 2005 and 2018. Urgent measures are required at both national and regional levels for resource mobilization to slow the growing burden. The work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China, China National Science& Technology Pillar Program, and National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5μm or less in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035.

Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.

Systematic population-wide ecological analysis of regional variability in disease prevalence

The prevalence of diseases often varies substantially from region to region. Besides basic demographic properties, the factors that drive the variability of each prevalence are to a large extent unknown. Here we show how regional prevalence variations in 115 different diseases relate to demographic, socio-economic, environmental factors and migratory background, as well as access to different types of health services such as primary, specialized and hospital healthcare. We have collected regional data for these risk factors at different levels of resolution; from large regions of care (Versorgungsregion) down to a 250 by 250 m square grid. Using multivariate regression analysis, we quantify the explanatory power of each independent variable in relation to the regional variation of the disease prevalence. We find that for certain diseases, such as acute heart conditions, diseases of the inner ear, mental and behavioral disorders due to substance abuse, up to 80% of the variance can be explained with these risk factors. For other diagnostic blocks, such as blood related diseases, injuries and poisoning however, the explanatory power is close to zero. We find that the time needed to travel from the inhabited center to the relevant hospital ward often contributes significantly to the disease risk, in particular for diabetes mellitus. Our results show that variations in disease burden across different regions can for many diseases be related to variations in demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, our results highlight the relative importance of access to health care facilities in the treatment of chronic diseases like diabetes.

Geographic Variation in Disease Burden and Mismatch in Care of Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in the United States.

Our objective was to evaluate the factors associated with regional variation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease burden in the US. In a retrospective cohort analysis of Rheumatology Informatics System for Effectiveness (RISE) registry data, seropositivity, RA disease activity (Clinical Disease Activity Index [CDAI], Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data-version 3 [RAPID3]), socioeconomic status (SES), geographic region, health insurance type, and comorbidity burden were recorded. An Area Deprivation Index score of more than 80 defined low SES. Median travel distance to practice sites' zip codes was calculated. Linear regression was used to analyze associations between RA disease activity and comorbidity adjusting for age, sex, geographic region, race, and insurance type. Enrollment data for 184,722 patients with RA from 182 RISE sites were analyzed. Disease activity was higher in African American patients, in those from Southern regions, and in those with Medicaid or Medicare coverage. Greater comorbidity was prevalent in patients in the South and those with Medicare or Medicaid coverage. There was moderate correlation between comorbidity and disease activity (Pearson coefficient: RAPID3 0.28, CDAI 0.15). High-deprivation areas were mainly in the South. Less than 10% of all participating practices cared for more than 50% of all Medicaid recipients. Patients living more than 200 miles away from specialist care were located mainly in Southern and Western regions. A disproportionately large portion of socially deprived, high comorbidity, and Medicaid-covered patients with RA were cared for by a minority of rheumatology practices. Studies are needed in high-deprivation areas to establish more equitable distribution of specialty care for patients with RA.

Disease burden of and expectations from surgery in patients prior to total knee arthroplasty: Results of the prospective FInGK study

BackgroundDisease burden in patients prior to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies widely between studies and countries. We aimed to characterize individuals undergoing TKA and examine their expectations from the surgery, focusing on variations in disease burden. MethodsConsecutive patients undergoing primary TKA in a German university hospital were recruited. A questionnaire including information on disease burden, preoperative expectations from surgery, health care utilization, demography, and socioeconomics was collected one day prior to surgery and linked to data from medical records. Patients were categorized into disease burden quartiles using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index’ (WOMAC) total score. Subsequently, study population’s characteristics and expectations from surgery were analyzed stratified by disease burden. ResultsA total of 196 patients were included (41 % male; mean age: 68.2 years). The median WOMAC was 52.0 (IQR: 41.0–58.0). Patients in Q1 were more often males (Q1: 63 % vs Q4: 29 %) and had a shorter duration of complaints with the impaired knee. They were also less restricted in social participation, reported less often signs of depression, and were less often treated with physiotherapy (Q1: 27 % vs Q4: 54 %). Furthermore, expectations from surgery were highest in patients with a low disease burden. ConclusionWe found large variations in disease burden with a considerable number of patients undergoing TKA whose functional capacity is still maintained and for which guideline-recommended conservative treatment options are not fully exhausted. Further research on this subgroup as well as establishing an international consensus on specific thresholds for TKA indication are needed.