Variation In Growth Research Articles

Irrigation expansion has kept pace with the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation growth in a typical arid region

Dynamics of vegetation in arid areas have drawn worldwide attention. The expansion of irrigated cropland (ICE) in arid regions contributes to increased food security and impacts on the extent and development of regional vegetation. However, the quantitative attribution of vegetation growth variation from ICE and biogeochemical factors (e.g., atmospheric CO2 concentration, climatic factors) is still lacking. Here, we assessed key drivers of vegetation growth in the inland arid region of Northwest China (IANC) from 1982 to 2018, including ICE, increased nitrogen rates, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) and climate drivers, using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) as measures. These variables were quantified through trend decomposition, machine learning algorithms, and a satellite-based model. The results show that vegetation growth was increased in IANC mainly due to eCO2 and ICE. After 1995, as the regional climatic aridity intensified, the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation growth decreased, as the atmospheric CO2 concentration continued to increase. Meanwhile, irrigated cropland area increased sharply, and ICE-driven GPP variation exceeded that driven by eCO2 in the whole region, while the ICE-driven NDVI variation exceeded that due to eCO2 when the ICE reached 6.38%. The ICE effect on regional vegetation growth rather than the CO2 fertilization effect has mitigated the slowdown of the rate of vegetation growth caused by climate changes. Although the ICE is conducive to food security and continuous greening of arid areas, further reclamation will exacerbate water scarcity. Our results provide research base for identifying the scale of sustainable agricultural development.

Contrasting physiological strategies explain heterogeneous responses to severe drought conditions within local populations of a widespread conifer

Understanding how trees prioritize carbon gain at the cost of drought vulnerability under severe drought conditions is crucial for predicting which genetic groups and individuals will be resilient to future climate conditions. In this study, we investigated variations in growth, tree-ring anatomy as well as carbon and oxygen isotope ratios to assess the sensitivity and the xylem formation process in response to an episode of severe drought in 29 mature white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) families grown in a common garden trial. During the drought episode, the majority of families displayed decreased growth and exhibited either sustained or increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), which was largely influenced by reduced stomatal conductance as revealed by the dual carbon‑oxygen isotope approach. Different water-use strategies were detected within white spruce populations in response to drought conditions. Our results revealed intraspecific variation in the prevailing physiological mechanisms underlying drought response within and among populations of Picea glauca. The presence of different genetic groups reflecting diverse water-use strategies within this largely-distributed conifer is likely to lessen the negative effects of drought and decrease the overall forest ecosystems' sensitivity to it.

Children with idiopathic short stature have significantly different gut microbiota than their normal height siblings: a case-control study.

To investigate the role of gut microbiota (GM) in pathogenesis of idiopathic short stature (ISS) by comparing GM of ISS children to their normal-height siblings. This case-control study, conducted at the Schneider Children's Medical Center's Institute for Endocrinology and Diabetes between 4/2018-11/2020, involved 30 pairs of healthy pre-pubertal siblings aged 3-10 years, each comprising one sibling with ISS and one with normal height. Outcome measures from fecal analysis of both siblings included GM composition analyzed by 16S rRNA sequencing, fecal metabolomics, and monitoring the growth of germ-free (GF) mice after fecal transplantation. Fecal analysis of ISS children identified higher predicted levels of genes encoding enzymes for pyrimidine, purine, flavin, coenzyme B, and thiamine biosynthesis, lower levels of several amino acids, and a significantly higher prevalence of the phylum Euryarchaeota compared to their normal-height siblings (p<0.001). ISS children with higher levels of Methanobrevibacter, the dominant species in the archaeal gut community, were significantly shorter in stature than those with lower levels (p=0.022). Mice receiving fecal transplants from ISS children did not experience stunted growth, probably due to the eradication of Methanobrevibacter caused by exposure to oxygen during fecal collection. Our findings suggest that different characteristics in the GM may explain variations in linear growth. The varying levels of Methanobrevibacter demonstrated within the ISS group reflect the multifactorial nature of ISS and the potential ability of the GM to partially explain growth variations. The targeting of specific microbiota could provide personalized therapies to improve growth in children with ISS.

Fat coalescence and texture improvement of ice cream based on medium-chain triglyceride oleogel: Effect of gelator type

Academics and industry have invested in creating novel and functional ice creams to meet the growing demand for frozen foods that promote human health and nutrition. This study aimed to investigate the effect of medium-chain triglyceride (MCT) oleogels that prepared by three different gelators on the development of ice creams, as a complete substitute for hydrogenated palm kernel oil (HPKO). The results showed that both beeswax (BW) and phytosterol-oryzanol (PS-GO) caused the fat crystal to grow into three-dimensional spherulites, while ethylcellulose (EC) inhibited crystal size growth. Among the three types of oleogel-based ice creams, the BW sample exhibited the highest coalescence degree, followed by PS-GO and EC. The difference was due to variations in crystal growth and rigid crystal strength. Both BW and PS-GO oleogels improved the firmness of the ice creams by enhancing the formation of crystal network structures in the emulsions. The EC oleogel did not contribute to the overrun of the ice cream. The well-structured fat with partially coalesced aggregates can stabilize the bubbles and hold the aqueous phase of ice creams, preventing the outflow during meltdown. Oleogels that form crystal networks can be employed as a preferable replacement for HPKO in the production of ice cream with superior texture.

Variations in tumor growth, intra-individual biological variability, and the interpretation of changes.

The identification of changes in tumor markers (TMs) in cancer patients that indicate response to treatment, stabilization or disease progression is a challenge for laboratory medicine. Several approaches have been proposed: assessing percentage increases, applying discriminant values, and estimating half-life (t1/2) or doubling time (DT). In all of them it is assumed that the TM is a surrogate of the variation in tumor size. In general this variation is time-dependent, but this is not the case of intraindividual biological variability (CVi), which can range from 6 % in CA15-3 to 22 % in CA125. When decisions are made on the basis of DT or t1/2, these values can be affected by the CVi; if it is very large, the growth rate very slow and the period of time between determinations very short, the result obtained for DT may be due mainly to the CVi. The aim of this study is to establish the relationship between the CVi and temporal variables. We related equations for calculating DT and t1/2 to the reference change values in tumor markers. The application of the formula obtained allows the calculation of the optimal time between measurements to ensure that the influence of the CVi is minimal in different types of tumors and different scenarios. Intraindividual variation affects the calculation of DT and t1/2. It is necessary to establish the minimum time between two measurements to ensure that the CVi does not affect their calculation or lead to misinterpretation.

Impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: Empirical insights from Nepal

This study aims to examine the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on Nepal’s long-term economic growth. It uses secondary data from 1989/90 to 2021/22 collected from various economic surveys of the Ministry of Finance of Nepal. Descriptive and explanatory research designs are used in this study. The trace, max-eigen tests, and fully modified least square methods search the long-run co-integration and impact between response and predictor variables. Trace and max-eigen tests consistently point toward the long-run co-integration between dependent (gross domestic product) and independent (import, export, total trade, and foreign direct investment) variables. Exports and imports are found to be negative and statistically significant to explain Nepal’s economic growth. One unit increase in exports results in a 0.748 unit decrease in Nepal’s economic growth. Similarly, total trade volume and foreign direct investment positively impact economic growth. Each unit increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.0036 unit increase in GDP in Nepal. Foreign trade has a multiplier effect on Nepal’s GDP growth. The 76.35 percent variation in economic growth depends upon total foreign trade volume, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. To promote sustainable economic growth, policymakers should prioritize policies encouraging increased total foreign trade and foreign direct investment while carefully managing the potential negative impact of excessive reliance on import dynamics.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Forest Growth in the Northern Daxing’an Mountains Based on Tree-Ring and NDVI Data

We used tree-ring width data of Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica from the northern region of the Daxing’an Mountains, China; normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data; and microtopographic information (elevation, slope direction, slope gradient, and topographic location index) to assess spatiotemporal dynamics in the growth of the boreal forest and topographic patterns of forest decline under the background of climate warming. Forest growth trends were determined based on tree growth decline indicators and NDVI time series trends, and topographic patterns of forest decline were analyzed using the C5.0 decision tree model. More climatic information was present in the radial growth of the trees at higher elevations, and P. sylvestris var. mongolica was influenced strongly by climatic factors of the previous year. Since 1759, tree radial growth trends in the study area have experienced two recessions during 1878–1893 and 1935–1943, which were characterized by persistent narrow whorls of tree rings of below-average growth. Changes in NDVI and tree-ring information were similar, and they together indicate a high risk of declining forest growth in the northern Daxing’an Mountains after 2010, especially at higher elevations. The NDVI time series showed that the high temperatures in 2003 negatively affected forest growth in the study area, which was confirmed by the tree-ring data. The decision tree terrain model results had an accuracy of 0.861, and elevation was the most important terrain factor affecting forest decline. The relative importance of elevation, topographic position index, aspect, and slope was 58.41%, 17.70%, 16.81%, and 7.08%, respectively. Classification rule-based decision tree models can be used to quantify the effects of terrain factors on tree growth. This research methodology can aid the management of regional forestry resources and the conservation of forest resources under the background of climate change, which increases the risk of forest decline.

Effect of provenances on growth and stem form of 16-year Juniperus procera plantation in Injibara, Northwestern Ethiopia

Juniperus procera Hochst. ex Endl. is an evergreen highland tree species reaching 30–40 m high and restricted to some mountainous areas. This tree is a species of great ecological and economic significance in supporting biodiversity, preventing soil erosion, and providing valuable resources. The study aimed at comparing the provenances effect on growth and yield performance of a 16-years-old J. procera plantation. This long-term experiment included eleven provenances from different regions of Ethiopia. It was laid out in a randomized complete block design with four replicates. The plot size was 100 m2 with 2.5 m by 2.5 m spacing. Growth parameters such as height and diameter over a 1-m interval of standing trees were measured for sample trees. The results showed that the overall mean of basal area for 11 provenances was ranging from 4.4 ± 0.29 to 5.2 ± 0.33 m2 ha⁻1. The biggest (11.3 ± 0.14 m) and smallest (9.8 ± 0.16 m) mean height was obtained in the provenances of Kolobo and Dikisis, respectively. The mean volume of the stem ranges from 12.3 ± 0.93 to 17.9 ± 1.1 m3 ha⁻1. The highest and lowest form factor was obtained in the provenances of Gaynt (0.43 ± 0.02) and Hirna (0.32 ± 0.02), respectively. The generic form factor is 0.4 ± 0.01. Provenance Kolobo had the best growth rate in all growth stages with 1.4 m height greater than the poorest provenance Dikisis and 23% greater than the overall average volume (14.5 m3 ha⁻1) at age of 16 years. The variations in growth and yield performance among the provenances could be attributed to genetic differences and adaptation to the local environment. Provenances originating from similar altitude such as Kolobo's provenances showed better growth and yield performance, possibly due to their adaptation to the cooler and wetter conditions prevailing in the study area. Choosing provenances that are well-adapted to the local site conditions can lead to improved productivity and economic returns.

The variation of growth in diameter and its relationship with the height of pedunculated oak (Quercus Robur L.) trees in the provenance cultures

In provenance cultures, studies were conducted on diameter growth dynamics in pedunculated oak (Quercus robur L.) trees and the height-diameter relationship was evaluated based on three data approximation models. The studies highlighted a signifi cant variation of the trunk diameter in trees of different origins and a similar growth reaction of oaks from four provenances (Hârjauca, Plaiul Fagului, Zloti, and Baimaclia) in relation to the environmental conditions of the common stand. In all the years of observation, the trees from Edineț had a rapid growth in diameter, thus demonstrating their ability to adapt through phenotypic plasticity. An uneven distribution of tree diameters was observed by provenance, indicating that dominant trees have an advantage in competition for light, slowing the growth of those with smaller diameters and causing a positive skew towards oaks with larger diameters. With the advancing age of the oaks, a tendency to decrease the values of the heritability coefficients for the trunk diameter was observed. At the age of 5 years, studies show a strong genetic control over the growth in diameter, a fact highlighted by the heritability coefficient value of 0,53 for this character. As the trees age, non-genetic factors such as environmental conditions become increasingly important in determining tree diameter growth. The comparative analysis of three statistical fitting models for data on pedunculate oak trees from different provenances, showed that the logarithmic model is the most appropriate to explain the relationship between their height and diameter.

War on Aisle 5: Casualties, National Identity, and Consumer Behavior

A growing body of research argues that external threats from the international system strengthen ethnocentrism and authoritarianism, personal values anchored in national identity. We evaluate a necessary implication of this argument, that these shifting values drive change in broader social behaviors. Our focus is revealed value change in a non-political setting: American consumers’ choice of supermarket brands that symbolize national identity. Our empirical analyses leverage US counties’ quasi-random exposure to US Iraq War casualties to identify the effects of local casualties on the weekly market share growth of “American” supermarket brands. We analyze weekly supermarket scanner data for a representative sample of over 1,100 US supermarkets and 8,000 brands. During 2003-2006, the weekly market share of American brands grew relative to non-American brands in casualty-exposed supermarkets. Variation in share growth across customer demographics is consistent with reactions to external threat. We rule out alternative mechanisms including partisan cues, other product characteristics, and animosity towards other countries. These findings strengthen IR’s theoretical microfoundations by showing that international politics can reshape values enough to change broader social behaviors.

Entrepreneurial innovations and trends: A global review: Examining emerging trends, challenges, and opportunities in the field of entrepreneurship, with a focus on how technology and globalization are shaping new business ventures

This scholarly inquiry delves into the intricate dynamics of entrepreneurship in the global economy, focusing on the pivotal roles of technological advancements and globalization. The study's primary aim is to unravel the complexities and evolving nature of entrepreneurial success in the 21st century, examining how technology and global integration shape new business ventures. Employing a qualitative and theoretical approach, the research methodically synthesizes a wide array of literature, offering a comprehensive analysis of the current entrepreneurial landscape. The findings of the study reveal a multifaceted entrepreneurial ecosystem, significantly influenced by digital transformation and global market integration. It highlights the emergence of social entrepreneurship and the critical role of technological innovations in developing new business models. The research also uncovers the dual nature of globalization, presenting both opportunities and challenges for entrepreneurs. A sector-specific analysis further elucidates the variations in entrepreneurial growth and decline, emphasizing the significance of geographic factors in entrepreneurial outcomes. Conclusively, the study underscores the necessity for entrepreneurs to adapt to rapidly changing business environments, advocating for strategic innovation and adaptability as essential tools for sustainability and growth. It posits that the future of entrepreneurship will be characterized by increased digitalization, innovation, and a focus on sustainable and inclusive growth. Policy implications suggest the need for inclusive, technology-integrated strategies to support entrepreneurial ventures. Recommendations for future entrepreneurs centre on embracing digitalization, fostering an innovative mindset, and leveraging global opportunities while navigating associated challenges.

Growth and yield models for black beans under magnetization and pH variation in a greenhouse

Objective: To estimate growth and yield variations in common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) treated with a magnetized nutrient solution considering two factors: magnet exposure time and pH level. The significance of this crop lies in its nutritional and economic value.&#x0D; Design/Methodology/Approach: We used a hydroponic system with magnetized Steiner nutrient solution. The design was completely randomized, with a 4 x 6 factorial treatment arrangement and three replications. Factor A comprised exposure times (0.333 hours, 2 hours, chronic, and without magnetization), while Factor B covered solutions with different pH levels (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8). We then applied a multiple regression analysis using the SAS software.&#x0D; &#x0D; Results: Models for vegetative growth variables (plant height, root length, root dry weight, and foliar biomass) and seed yield components (number of pods, number of grains per pod) were statistically significant (p&lt;0.0001). Coefficients of determination ranged from 59.7 % to 82 %, percentages considered appropriate to explain the observed variability.&#x0D; Study limitations/Implications: While the models showed acceptable coefficients of determination, it is essential to consider other factors that were not assessed in this study: exposure to sunlight, insect influence, and diseases that could impact the responses of the bean crop.&#x0D; Findings/Conclusions: Appropriate models to describe vegetative growth and seed yield of the common bean, concerning magnetization time and nutrient solution acidity, include variables such as plant height, root length, root dry weight, foliar biomass, total biomass, number of pods, and number of grains per pod.

Using scale-derived estimates of body size in analyses of Atlantic salmon life-history variation: a cautionary note

Measurements of individual body length at different life stages are critical in understanding fish ecology and evolution. Such data can be obtained via back-calculation from measurements of fish scales or by using the size of the scale as a direct proxy for body length. Using data from Atlantic salmon, we test key assumptions associated with each approach and their implications for investigating how variation in growth earlier in life is associated with age at maturity. The scaling of scale size approximated isometry and was similar among individuals who matured at different ages—validating a key assumption of back-calculation. However, we observed that individuals genetically predisposed to delay maturation have smaller scales for their body size—challenging a key assumption of the “direct scale-size” approach. Depending on the method of body length estimation, the relationship between body length growth earlier in life and age at maturity was observed to differ. Thus, when using scale material to study the relationship between growth and maturation in salmon, we recommend back-calculation and an assumed allometric scaling coefficient.

Aging Mongolian pine plantations face high risks of drought-induced growth decline: evidence from both individual tree and forest stand measurements

Discerning vulnerability differences among different aged trees to drought-driven growth decline or to mortality is critical to implement age-specific countermeasures for forest management in water-limited areas. An important species for afforestation in dry environments of northern China, Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica Litv.) has recently exhibited growth decline and dieback on many sites, particularly pronounced in old-growth plantations. However, changes in response to drought stress by this species with age as well as the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. In this study, tree-ring data and remotely sensed vegetation data were combined to investigate variations in growth at individual tree and stand scales for young (9 − 13 years) and aging (35 − 52 years) plantations of Mongolian pine in a water-limited area of northern China. A recent decline in tree-ring width in the older plantation also had lower values in satellited-derived normalized difference vegetation indices and normalized difference water indices relative to the younger plantations. In addition, all measured growth-related metrics were strongly correlated with the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index during the growing season in the older plantation. Sensitivity of growth to drought of the older plantation might be attributed to more severe hydraulic limitations, as reflected by their lower sapwood- and leaf-specific hydraulic conductivities. Our study presents a comprehensive view on changes of growth with age by integrating multiple methods and provides an explanation from the perspective of plant hydraulics for growth decline with age. The results indicate that old-growth Mongolian pine plantations in water-limited environments may face increased growth declines under the context of climate warming and drying.

SustAinimal Grazing Living Lab – a survey of grazing management on dairy farms in northern Sweden

ABSTRACT A survey was conducted on 302 Sweden dairy farms (response rate 98%) to identify grazing and grassland management strategies and main challenges to grazing in northern Sweden. The most common grazing strategy on all dairy farms was continuous grazing (59%) followed by rotational grazing (45%), while organic dairy farms preferentially adopted rotational grazing (69%). The main challenges reported in grazing dairy cows on temporary grasslands on conventional farms were trampling damage and seasonal variations in grass growth, while for organic dairy farmers, the primary challenge was weed control. Only a few farms had grazing on semi-natural grasslands. Future sustainable grazing should focus on optimising grazing strategy in relation to on-farm grazing locations and nutrient supply for high-yielding dairy cows.

Spring Growth Variation in Pioneer and Fibrous Roots in Abies sachalinensis Seedlings from Provenances with Contrasting Snow Cover Environments

Spring Growth Variation in Pioneer and Fibrous Roots in <i>Abies sachalinensis</i> Seedlings from Provenances with Contrasting Snow Cover Environments

Optimizing Pre-Sowing Treatments for the Enhanced Growth, Fruit Yield, and Seed Quality in Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench

This research investigated diverse pre-sowing techniques' impact on the growth, fruit, and seed yield of okra variety Arka Anamika. From fourteen treatments, seven were selected based on germination and vigour index for a subsequent field experiment. The Randomized Block Design trial with three replications revealed significant variations in growth and yield among pre-sowing treatments. The treatment employing PEG (Poly ethylene glycol) 6000-13.5% (-0.25MPa) for 6 hours exhibited the highest germination percentages. Pseudomonas fluorescens-10g/kg of seed also displayed notable performance. Treatment variations were observed in plant height, branches, and flowering timings. The results suggest that in terms of plant growth and flowering time, P. fluorescens was more effective than Trichoderma viride. P. fluorescens -10g/kg of seed, demonstrated superior results in achieving maximum seed yield parameters, ranking highest overall. T. viride-4g/kg of seed, emerged as the second most effective treatment. Recommendations for preserving seed quality included KNO3 2% for 6 hours and PEG 6000-13.5% (-0.25MPa) for 12 hours. Application of biocontrol agents, especially P. fluorescens and T. viride, markedly improved okra variety Arka Anamika's fruit and seed yield characteristics. The study concludes by emphasizing the benefits of biocontrol agents on overall performance and suggesting targeted treatments for optimal seed quality.

Vertical variations of bacterial growth, mortality loss to nanoflagellates, and viruses in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean

Nanoflagellate grazing and viral lysis are the two main causes of mortality losses of marine bacterioplankton. Deciphering the mortality losses across the water column helps us understand their ecological and biogeochemical consequences. In this study, we implemented the two-point modified dilution method consisting of treatment of undiluted and 25% nanoflagellates and/or virus density at the surface (3 m), deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), and the mesopelagic zone (300 m and 500 m deep) in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean in summer. We found that the bacterial per capita growth (2.3 ± 0.6 d−1) and production (12.4 ± 6.9 μgC L−1 d−1) were significantly higher at the DCM layer than at the mesopelagic zone, possibly because of tight bacteria-phytoplankton coupling and trophic interactions between bacteria, nanoflagellates, and viruses. Further, we found that ∼70% of the bacterial mortality loss can be attributed to nanoflagellate grazing in the DCM layer, while most of the mortality loss in the surface and the mesopelagic zone can be attributed to viral lysis. We argue that while bacterial production is more efficiently transferred to higher trophic levels at the DCM layer, it is predominately recycled in the viral loop on the surface and the mesopelagic zone. Our results reveal the vertical variation of bacterial growth, production, mortality loss to nanoflagellate grazing, and viral lysis, from which we could deduct their depth-dependent impacts on carbon flux in the water column. Our study facilitates the understanding of the impacts of nanoflagellates and viruses on bacterioplankton and the bacteria-mediated biogeochemical cycling.

Global warming alters Himalayan alpine shrub growth dynamics and climate sensitivity

Global climate change is having significant effects on plant growth patterns and mountain plants can be particularly vulnerable to accelerated warming. Rising temperatures are releasing plants from cold limitation, such as at high elevations and latitudes, but can also induce drought limitation, as documented for trees from lower elevations and latitudes. Here we test these predictions using a unique natural experiment with Himalayan alpine shrub Rhododendron anthopogon and its growth responses to changing climate over a large portion of its latitudinal and elevational ranges, including steep precipitation and temperature gradients. We determined growth dynamics during the last three decades, representing period of accelerated warming, using annual radial growth increments for nine populations growing on both wet and warm southern localities and drier and cold northern localities in the Himalayas along elevation gradients encompassing the lower and upper species range limits. A significant growth increase over past decades was observed after controlling for confounding effect of shrub age and microsites. However, the magnitude of increase varied among populations. Particularly, populations situated in the lower elevation of the northernmost (cold and dry) locality exhibited most substantial growth enhancement. The relationship between growth variability and climate varied among populations, with the populations from the coldest location displaying the strongest responsiveness to increasing minimum temperatures during July. Minimum temperatures of April and August were the most important factor limiting the growth across most populations. Potential warming-induced drought limitation had no significant impact on growth variation in any part of the species geographic range. Overall, our findings indicate that plant growth is continuously increasing in recent decades and growth-climate relationships are not consistent across populations, with populations from the coldest and wettest localities showing stronger responses. The observed patterns suggest that dwarf-shrubs benefit from ongoing warming, leading to increased shrubification of high elevation alpine ecosystems.

Decadal Trends in Surface Elevation and Tree Growth in Coastal Wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Coastal wetlands surrounding urban environments provide many important ecosystem services including protection from coastal erosion, soil carbon sequestration and habitat for marine and terrestrial fauna. Their persistence with sea-level rise depends upon their capacity to increase their soil surface elevation at a rate comparable to the rate of sea-level rise. Both sediment and organic matter from plant growth contribute to gains in soil surface elevation, but the importance of these components varies among sites and with variation in climate over long time scales, for which monitoring is seldom available. Here, we analysed variation in surface elevation, surface accretion and mangrove tree growth over 15 years in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, a period that spans variation in the El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) cycle, which strongly influences rainfall and sea level in the region. Piecewise structural equation models were used to assess the effects of biotic (tree growth, plant cover and bioturbation by invertebrates) and environmental factors on annual surface elevation increments throughout this period. Our model for mangroves identified that surface accretion and tree growth were both positively influenced by rainfall, but surface elevation was not, and thus, higher levels of compaction of the soil profile in high rainfall/high sea level years were inferred. In contrast, our saltmarsh model found that rainfall positively influenced surface accretion and elevation gains. Declines in surface elevation in the mangroves were influenced by the species composition of the mangrove, with higher levels of elevation loss occurring in mangrove forests dominated by Avicennia marina compared to those with a higher proportion of Rhizophora stylosa. Decadal-scale variation in ENSO affected mangrove tree growth, but surface elevation trends were more strongly influenced by variation in environmental conditions than by tree growth, although effects of biotic factors (mangrove species composition and bioturbation) on surface elevation trends were observed. Further research into tipping points with extreme ENSO events (either La Niña with high rainfall and high sea level or El Niño with low rainfall and low sea levels) will help clarify the future of mangrove and saltmarsh distribution within Moreton Bay.