Vegetation plays a crucial role as a resilient safeguard for both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods in the source area of great rivers. Analyzing the variability of vegetation cover (VC) within the context of various complex drivers holds significant practical importance. In this study, an Evolution-Identification-Prediction (EIP) framework was developed to achieve the integrated assessment of vegetation dynamics and to identify its response to environmental changes. It is designed not only to display spatio-temporal features of vegetation change but also to emphasize determining the linkages between climate change (i.e., meteorological elements, climatic extremes, atmospheric circulation), human activities, anthropogenic factors (i.e., population, gross domestic product, land-use type), and vegetation dynamics. Furthermore, future patterns of vegetation were estimated by extracting information on historical changes in VC. In the above process, various methods and novel ideas with strong applicability have been proposed or introduced to achieve the stated objective. Then, the driving mechanisms of environmental changes on vegetation dynamics in the Upper Yellow River basin (UYRB) of China were examined across multiple dimensions, scales, and aspects. Results show that: a) complex correlation between NDVI and climate change appears, which is reflected in the differences of regions, factors, and correlation intensity; b) R10, PRCP, SDII and CWD are the main influences among extreme climate indices with explanatory power above 0.3; c) climate change and human activity jointly dominate vegetation dynamics in the UYRB, with the impact of human activity obviously enhanced; d) human activity has an overall positive effect on VC, and higher NDVI is generally found in forested, low population density and gross domestic product regions; e) the VC of the UYRB is projected to further improve under the combined influence of environmental factors, with the rate of high VC increase from 21.87% (2019) to 30.44% (2030). The findings can support the implementation of vegetation conservation and restoration initiatives to address the risks posed by environmental change.
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