Variation In Transmission Intensity Research Articles

Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance Optical Biosensor for Simple Detection of Deoxyribonucleic Acid Mismatches

Optical biosensors are optical technologies that evaluate changes in the refractive index as they monitor non‐covalent molecular interactions in real time. These make use of unsophisticated, label‐free analytical approaches, which do not require dyes to produce a visible signal. In this study, the efficiency of localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) biosensor in detecting a single nucleotide mismatch in deoxyribonucleic acid is examined. The detection is based on the hybridization of a target DNA at 100 ng μL−1 with a complementary biotinylated probe as well as a partially complementary biotinylated with one nucleotide mismatch probe on a gold‐coated surface. Both probes are used at a concentration of 0.1 μm. The LSPR exhibited sensitivity by differentiating sample M+ from sample C+ through varying transmission intensities of 0.28 and 0.26 μA, respectively. Based on these findings, this approach demonstrates a great potential due to its ability to distinguish samples that differ with a single base pair, and its efficiency will be explored in the development of a point‐of‐care device as a simpler and cost‐effective approach for detection of various biologically and medically significant mutations such as antimicrobial resistance mutations. More work is underway to determine the robustness of the LSPR biosensor using the biotin–neutravidin approach.

Molecular surveillance of Kelch 13 polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Kenya and Ethiopia

BackgroundTimely molecular surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 (k13) gene mutations is essential for monitoring the emergence and stemming the spread of artemisinin resistance. Widespread artemisinin resistance, as observed in Southeast Asia, would reverse significant gains that have been made against the malaria burden in Africa. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of k13 polymorphisms in western Kenya and Ethiopia at sites representing varying transmission intensities between 2018 and 2022.MethodsDried blood spot samples collected through ongoing passive surveillance and malaria epidemiological studies, respectively, were investigated. The k13 gene was genotyped in P. falciparum isolates with high parasitaemia: 775 isolates from four sites in western Kenya (Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kisii, and Kombewa) and 319 isolates from five sites across Ethiopia (Arjo, Awash, Gambella, Dire Dawa, and Semera). DNA sequence variation and neutrality were analysed within each study site where mutant alleles were detected.ResultsSixteen Kelch13 haplotypes were detected in this study. Prevalence of nonsynonymous k13 mutations was low in both western Kenya (25/783, 3.19%) and Ethiopia (5/319, 1.57%) across the study period. Two WHO-validated mutations were detected: A675V in three isolates from Kenya and R622I in four isolates from Ethiopia. Seventeen samples from Kenya carried synonymous mutations (2.17%). No synonymous mutations were detected in Ethiopia. Genetic variation analyses and tests of neutrality further suggest an excess of low frequency polymorphisms in each study site. Fu and Li’s F test statistic in Semera was 0.48 (P > 0.05), suggesting potential population selection of R622I, which appeared at a relatively high frequency (3/22, 13.04%).ConclusionsThis study presents an updated report on the low frequency of k13 mutations in western Kenya and Ethiopia. The WHO-validated R622I mutation, which has previously only been reported along the north-west border of Ethiopia, appeared in four isolates collected from eastern Ethiopia. The rapid expansion of R622I across Ethiopia signals the need for enhanced monitoring of the spread of drug-resistant P. falciparum parasites in East Africa. Although ACT remains currently efficacious in the study areas, continued surveillance is necessary to detect early indicators of artemisinin partial resistance.

Implications of asymptomatic malaria infections on hematologic parameters in adults living with HIV in malaria-endemic regions with varying transmission intensities

ObjectivesHIV and malaria coinfection impacts disease management and clinical outcomes. This study investigated hematologic abnormalities in malaria-asymptomatic people living with HIV (PLHIV) in regions with differing malaria transmission. MethodsStudy participants were enrolled in the African Cohort Study: two sites in Kenya, one in Uganda, and one in Nigeria. Data was collected at enrollment and every 6 months. Logistic regression estimated odds ratios for associations between HIV/malaria status and anemia, thrombocytopenia, and leucopenia. ResultsSamples from 1587 participants with one or more visits comprising 1471 (92.7%) from PLHIV and 116 (7.3%) without HIV were analyzed. Parasite point prevalence significantly differed across the study sites (P <0.001). PLHIV had higher odds of anemia, with males at lower odds compared to females; the odds of anemia decreased with age, reaching significance in those ≥50 years old. Participants in Kisumu, Kenya had higher odds of anemia compared to other sites. PLHIV had higher odds of leucopenia, but malaria co-infection was not associated with worsened leucopenia. The odds of thrombocytopenia were decreased in HIV/malaria co-infection compared to the uninfected group. ConclusionHematological parameters are important indicators of health and disease. In PLHIV with asymptomatic malaria co-infection enrolled across four geographic sites in three African countries, abnormalities in hematologic parameters differ in different malaria transmission settings and are region-specific.

Impact of malaria diagnostic choice on monitoring of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence estimates in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and relevance to control programs in high-burden countries.

Malaria programs rely upon a variety of diagnostic assays, including rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), microscopy, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and bead-based immunoassays (BBA), to monitor malaria prevalence and support control and elimination efforts. Data comparing these assays are limited, especially from high-burden countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using cross-sectional and routine data, we compared diagnostic performance and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence estimates across health areas of varying transmission intensity to illustrate the relevance of assay performance to malaria control programs. Data and samples were collected between March-June 2018 during a cross-sectional household survey across three health areas with low, moderate, and high transmission intensities within Kinshasa Province, DRC. Samples from 1,431 participants were evaluated using RDT, microscopy, PCR, and BBA. P. falciparum parasite prevalence varied between diagnostic methods across all health areas, with the highest prevalence estimates observed in Bu (57.4-72.4% across assays), followed by Kimpoko (32.6-53.2%), and Voix du Peuple (3.1-8.4%). Using latent class analysis to compare these diagnostic methods against an "alloyed gold standard," the most sensitive diagnostic method was BBA in Bu (high prevalence) and Voix du Peuple (low prevalence), while PCR diagnosis was most sensitive in Kimpoko (moderate prevalence). RDTs were consistently the most specific diagnostic method in all health areas. Among 9.0 million people residing in Kinshasa Province in 2018, the estimated P. falciparum prevalence by microscopy, PCR, and BBA were nearly double that of RDT. Comparison of malaria RDT, microscopy, PCR, and BBA results confirmed differences in sensitivity and specificity that varied by endemicity, with PCR and BBA performing best for detecting any P. falciparum infection. Prevalence estimates varied widely depending on assay type for parasite detection. Inherent differences in assay performance should be carefully considered when using community survey and surveillance data to guide policy decisions.

Analytical approaches for antimalarial antibody responses to confirm historical and recent malaria transmission: an example from the Philippines

Assessing the status of malaria transmission in endemic areas becomes increasingly challenging as countries approach elimination. Serology can provide robust estimates of malaria transmission intensities, and multiplex serological assays allow for simultaneous assessment of markers of recent and historical malaria exposure. Here, we evaluated different statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing multiplex malaria-specific antibody response data to classify recent and historical exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. To assess these methods, we utilized samples from a health-facility based survey (n=9132) in the Philippines, where we quantified antibody responses against 8P.falciparum and 6P.vivax-specific antigens from 3 sites with varying transmission intensity. Measurements of antibody responses and seroprevalence were consistent with the 3 sites' known endemicity status. Among the models tested, a machine learning (ML) approach (Random Forest model) using 4 serological markers (PfGLURP R2, Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, and PfMSP119) gave better predictions for P.falciparum recent infection in Palawan (AUC: 0.9591, CI 0.9497-0.9684) than individual antigen seropositivity. Although the ML approach did not improve P.vivax infection predictions, ML classifications confirmed the absence of recent exposure to P.falciparum and P.vivax in both Occidental Mindoro and Bataan. For predicting historical P.falciparum and P.vivax transmission, seroprevalence and seroconversion rates based on cumulative exposure markers AMA1 and MSP119 showed reliable trends in the 3 sites. Our study emphasizes the utility of serological markers in predicting recent and historical exposure in a sub-national elimination setting, and also highlights the potential use of machine learning models using multiplex antibody responses to improve assessment of the malaria transmission status of countries aiming for elimination. This work also provides baseline antibody data for monitoring risk in malaria-endemic areas in the Philippines. Newton Fund, Philippine Council for Health Research and Development, UK Medical Research Council.

Multi-Year Comparison of Community- and Species-Level West Nile Virus Antibody Prevalence in Birds from Atlanta, Georgia and Chicago, Illinois, 2005-2016.

West Nile virus (WNV) is prevalent in the United States but shows considerable variation in transmission intensity. The purpose of this study was to compare patterns of WNV seroprevalence in avian communities sampled in Atlanta, Georgia and Chicago, Illinois during a 12-year period (Atlanta 2010-2016; Chicago 2005-2012) to reveal regional patterns of zoonotic activity of WNV. WNV antibodies were measured in wild bird sera using ELISA and serum neutralization methods, and seroprevalence among species, year, and location of sampling within each city were compared using binomial-distributed generalized linear mixed-effects models. Seroprevalence was highest in year-round and summer-resident species compared with migrants regardless of region; species explained more variance in seroprevalence within each city. Northern cardinals were the species most likely to test positive for WNV in each city, whereas all other species, on average, tested positive for WNV in proportion to their sample size. Despite similar patterns of seroprevalence among species, overall seroprevalence was higher in Atlanta (13.7%) than in Chicago (5%). Location and year of sampling had minor effects, with location explaining more variation in Atlanta and year explaining more variation in Chicago. Our findings highlight the nature and magnitude of regional differences in WNV urban ecology.

Modelling longitudinal binary outcomes with outcome dependent observation times: an application to a malaria cohort study

BACKGROUND: In spite of the global reduction of 21% in malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, the disease still threatens many lives of children and pregnant mothers in African countries. A correct assessment and evaluation of the impact of malaria control strategies still remains quintessential in order to eliminate the disease and its burden. Malaria follow-up studies typically involve routine visits at pre-scheduled time points and/or clinical visits whenever individuals experience malaria-like symptoms. In the latter case, infection triggers outcome assessment, thereby leading to outcome-dependent sampling (ODS). Commonly used methods to analyze such longitudinal data ignore ODS and potentially lead to biased estimates of malaria-specific transmission parameters, hence, inducing an incorrect assessment and evaluation of malaria control strategies. METHODS: In this paper, a new method is proposed to handle ODS by use of a joint model for the longitudinal binary outcome measured at routine visits and the clinical event times. The methodology is applied to malaria parasitaemia data from a cohort of [Formula: see text] Ugandan children aged 0.5-10 years from 3 regions (Walukuba-300 children, Kihihi-355 children and Nagongera-333 children) with varying transmission intensities (entomological inoculation rate equal to 2.8, 32 and 310 infectious bites per unit year, respectively) collected between 2011-2014. RESULTS: The results indicate that malaria parasite prevalence and force of infection (FOI) increase with age in the region of high malaria intensity with highest FOI in age group 5-10 years. For the region of medium intensity, the prevalence slightly increases with age and the FOI for the routine process is highest in age group 5-10 years, yet for the clinical infections, the FOI gradually decreases with increasing age. For the region with low intensity, both the prevalence and FOI peak at the age of 1 year after which the former remains constant with age yet the latter suddenly decreases with age for the clinically observed infections. CONCLUSION: Malaria parasite prevalence and FOI increase with age in the region of high malaria intensity. In all study sites, both the prevalence and FOI are highest among previously asymptomatic children and lowest among their symptomatic counterparts. Using a simulation study inspired by the malaria data at hand, the proposed methodology shows to have the smallest bias, especially when consecutive positive malaria parasitaemia presence results within a time period of 35 days were considered to be due to the same infection.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

Evaluating malaria prevalence and land cover across varying transmission intensity in Tanzania using a cross-sectional survey of school-aged children

BackgroundTransmission of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa has become increasingly stratified following decades of malaria control interventions. The extent to which environmental and land cover risk factors for malaria may differ across distinct strata of transmission intensity is not well known and could provide actionable targets to maximize the success of malaria control efforts.MethodsThis study used cross-sectional malaria survey data from a nationally representative cohort of school-aged children in Tanzania, and satellite-derived measures for environmental features and land cover. Hierarchical logistic regression models were applied to evaluate associations between land cover and malaria prevalence within three distinct strata of transmission intensity: low and unstable, moderate and seasonal, and high and perennial.ResultsIn areas with low malaria transmission, each 10-percentage point increase in cropland cover was associated with an increase in malaria prevalence odds of 2.44 (95% UI: 1.27, 5.11). However, at moderate and higher levels of transmission intensity, no association between cropland cover and malaria prevalence was detected. Small associations were observed between greater grassland cover and greater malaria prevalence in high intensity settings (prevalence odds ratio (POR): 1.10, 95% UI: 1.00, 1.21), and between greater forest cover and reduced malaria prevalence in low transmission areas (POR: 0.74, 95% UI: 0.51, 1.03), however the uncertainty intervals of both estimates included the null.ConclusionsThe intensity of malaria transmission appears to modify relationships between land cover and malaria prevalence among school-aged children in Tanzania. In particular, greater cropland cover was positively associated with increased malaria prevalence in areas with low transmission intensity and presents an actionable target for environmental vector control interventions to complement current malaria control activities. As areas are nearing malaria elimination, it is important to re-evaluate environmental risk factors and employ appropriate interventions to effectively address low-level malaria transmission.

Progress, challenges and priorities for malaria elimination in South Africa

Low incidence rates of malaria (<1/1000 population at risk) in South Africa led the World Health Organization to recommend that the country pursue malaria elimination (zero local cases). The first elimination strategy published in 2012, targeted elimination by 2018. Unfortunately, this goal was not realised. This paper explores the challenges faced and lessons learnt during the implementation of the country’s first elimination strategy and makes recommendations for accelerating towards malaria elimination using the revised elimination strategy (2019–2023). Secondary descriptive data analysis was used to gauge progress and identify challenges and lessons learnt. Data were sourced from the WHO malaria end term programme review reports (2012–2018), a WHO malaria elimination certification checklist report and the National Malaria DHIS2 malaria elimination database. Malaria cases in South Africa increased from 5255 in 2012 to 15,554 in 2018, with an outbreak in 2017 where 28,264 cases were reported. Local transmission occurred in 11 of the 52 districts but with varying transmission intensities. Sub-optimal coverage of essential vector control and surveillance interventions were noted in KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces. Case notification within 24 h, and accurate case classification remain challenges. The National Malaria Control Programme mobilised additional financial resources from government to address the challenges identified – particularly, in terms of vector control intervention coverage, surveillance activities (parasitological and entomological) and employment of an appropriately skilled workforce. Districts with close to zero local cases will be supported for sub-national malaria elimination. This phased approached will advance elimination of malaria in South Africa.

Corrigendum to: Dengue Endemicity, Force of Infection and Variation in Transmission Intensity From 13 Endemic Countries

Corrigendum to: Dengue Endemicity, Force of Infection and Variation in Transmission Intensity From 13 Endemic Countries

Dengue Endemicity, Force of Infection, and Variation in Transmission Intensity in 13 Endemic Countries.

Dengue endemicity varies but comparative, multicountry data are extremely limited. An improved understanding is needed to prioritize prevention, including vaccination, which is currently recommended only under specific epidemiological conditions. We used serological study data from 46 geographical sites in 13 countries to estimate dengue force of infection (FOI, the proportion of children seroconverting per year) under assumptions of either age-constant or age-varying FOI, and the age at which 50% and 80% of children had been infected. After exclusions, 13 661 subjects were included. Estimated constant FOI varied widely, from 1.7% (Singapore) to 24.1% (the Philippines). In the site-level analysis 44 sites (96%) reached 50% seroconversion and 35 sites (75%) reached 80% seroconversion by age 18 years, with significant heterogeneity. These findings confirm that children living in dengue-endemic countries receive intense early dengue exposure, increasing risk of secondary infection, and imply serosurveys at fine spatial resolutions are needed to inform vaccination campaigns.

The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data

BackgroundThe majority of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases in Africa are treated with the artemisinin combination therapies artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (AS-AQ), with amodiaquine being also widely used as part of seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs combined with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. While artemisinin derivatives have a short half-life, lumefantrine and amodiaquine may give rise to differing durations of post-treatment prophylaxis, an important additional benefit to patients in higher transmission areas.MethodsWe analyzed individual patient data from 8 clinical trials of AL versus AS-AQ in 12 sites in Africa (n = 4214 individuals). The time to PCR-confirmed reinfection after treatment was used to estimate the duration of post-treatment protection, accounting for variation in transmission intensity between settings using hidden semi-Markov models. Accelerated failure-time models were used to identify potential effects of covariates on the time to reinfection. The estimated duration of chemoprophylaxis was then used in a mathematical model of malaria transmission to determine the potential public health impact of each drug when used for first-line treatment.ResultsWe estimated a mean duration of post-treatment protection of 13.0 days (95% CI 10.7–15.7) for AL and 15.2 days (95% CI 12.8–18.4) for AS-AQ overall. However, the duration varied significantly between trial sites, from 8.7–18.6 days for AL and 10.2–18.7 days for AS-AQ. Significant predictors of time to reinfection in multivariable models were transmission intensity, age, drug, and parasite genotype. Where wild type pfmdr1 and pfcrt parasite genotypes predominated (<=20% 86Y and 76T mutants, respectively), AS-AQ provided ~ 2-fold longer protection than AL. Conversely, at a higher prevalence of 86Y and 76T mutant parasites (> 80%), AL provided up to 1.5-fold longer protection than AS-AQ. Our simulations found that these differences in the duration of protection could alter population-level clinical incidence of malaria by up to 14% in under-5-year-old children when the drugs were used as first-line treatments in areas with high, seasonal transmission.ConclusionChoosing a first-line treatment which provides optimal post-treatment prophylaxis given the local prevalence of resistance-associated markers could make a significant contribution to reducing malaria morbidity.

Field performance of the malaria highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test in a setting of varying malaria transmission

BackgroundThe Gambia has successfully reduced malaria transmission. The human reservoir of infection could further decrease if malaria-infected individuals could be identified by highly sensitive, field-based, diagnostic tools and then treated.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was done at the peak of the 2017 malaria season in 47 Gambian villages. From each village, 100 residents were randomly selected for finger-prick blood samples to detect Plasmodium falciparum infections using highly sensitive rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDT) and PCR. The sensitivity and specificity of the HS-RDT were estimated (assuming PCR as the gold standard) across varying transmission intensities and in different age groups. A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model of malaria transmission was used to estimate the impact of mass testing and treatment (MTAT) with HS-RDT in four different scenarios of malaria prevalence by PCR: 5, 15, 30, and 60%, and with seasonal transmission. The impact was compared both to MTAT with conventional RDT and mass drug administration (MDA).ResultsMalaria prevalence by HS-RDT was 15% (570/3798; 95% CI 13.9–16.1). The HS-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 38.4% (191/497, 95% CI 34.2–42.71) and 88.5% (2922/3301; 95% CI 87.4–89.6), respectively. Sensitivity was the highest (50.9%, 95% CI 43.3–58.5%) in high prevalence villages (20–50% by PCR). The model predicted that in very low transmission areas (≤ 5%), three monthly rounds of MTAT with HS-RDT, starting towards the end of the dry season and testing 65 or 85% of the population for 2 consecutive years, would avert 62 or 78% of malaria cases (over 2 years), respectively. The effect of the intervention would be lower in a moderate transmission setting. In all settings, MDA would be superior to MTAT with HS-RDT which would be superior to MTAT with conventional RDT.ConclusionThe HS-RDT’s field sensitivity was modest and varied by transmission intensity. In low to very low transmission areas, three monthly rounds per year of MTAT with HS-RDT at 85% coverage for 2 consecutive years would reduce malaria prevalence to such low levels that additional strategies may achieve elimination. The model prediction would need to be confirmed by cluster-randomized trials.

Smallest Anopheles farauti occur during the peak transmission season in the Solomon Islands

BackgroundMalaria transmission varies in intensity amongst Solomon Island villages where Anopheles farauti is the only vector. This variation in transmission intensity might be explained by density-dependent processes during An. farauti larval development, as density dependence can impact adult size with associated fitness costs and daily survivorship.MethodsAdult anophelines were sampled from six villages in Western and Central Provinces, Solomon Islands between March 2014 and February 2017. The size of females was estimated by measuring wing lengths, and then analysed for associations with biting densities and rainfall.ResultsIn the Solomon Islands, three anopheline species, An. farauti, Anopheles hinesorum and Anopheles lungae, differed in size. The primary malaria vector, An. farauti, varied significantly in size among villages. Greater rainfall was directly associated with higher densities of An. farauti biting rates, but inversely associated with body size with the smallest mean sized mosquitoes present during the peak transmission period. A measurable association between body size and survivorship was not found.ConclusionsDensity dependent effects are likely impacting the size of adult An. farauti emerging from a range of larval habitats. The data suggest that rainfall increases An. farauti numbers and that these more abundant mosquitoes are significantly smaller in size, but without any reduced survivorship being associated with smaller size. The higher malaria transmission rate in a high malaria focus village appears to be determined more by vector numbers than size or survivorship of the vectors.

Evaluating antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using competing risk survival analysis: a simulation study

BackgroundAntimalarial efficacy studies in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum are confounded by a new infection (a competing risk event) since this event can potentially preclude a recrudescent event (primary endpoint of interest). The current WHO guidelines recommend censoring competing risk events when deriving antimalarial efficacy. We investigated the impact of considering a new infection as a competing risk event on the estimation of antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using two simulation studies.MethodsThe first simulation study explored differences in the estimates of treatment failure for areas of varying transmission intensities using the complement of the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimate and the Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF). The second simulation study extended this to a comparative drug efficacy trial for comparing the K-M curves using the log-rank test, and Gray’s k-sample test for comparing the equality of CIFs.ResultsThe complement of the K-M approach produced larger estimates of cumulative treatment failure compared to the CIF method; the magnitude of which was correlated with the observed proportion of new infection and recrudescence. When the drug efficacy was 90%, the absolute overestimation in failure was 0.3% in areas of low transmission rising to 3.1% in the high transmission settings. In a scenario which is most likely to be observed in a comparative trial of antimalarials, where a new drug regimen is associated with an increased (or decreased) rate of recrudescences and new infections compared to an existing drug, the log-rank test was found to be more powerful to detect treatment differences compared to the Gray’s k-sample test.ConclusionsThe CIF approach should be considered for deriving estimates of antimalarial efficacy, in high transmission areas or for failing drugs. For comparative studies of antimalarial treatments, researchers need to select the statistical test that is best suited to whether the rate or cumulative risk of recrudescence is the outcome of interest, and consider the potential differing prophylactic periods of the antimalarials being compared.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa.

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites. Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes. Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites. Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes. Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Genome-wide scans for the identification of Plasmodium vivax genes under positive selection

BackgroundThe current trend of Plasmodium vivax cases imported from Southeast Asia into China has sharply increased recently, especially from the China–Myanmar border (CMB) area. High recombination rates of P. vivax populations associated with varied transmission intensity might cause distinct local selective pressures. The information on the genetic variability of P. vivax in this area is scant. Hence, this study assessed the genetic diversity of P. vivax genome sequence in CMB area and aimed to provide information on the positive selection of new gene loci.ResultsThis study reports a genome-wide survey of P. vivax in CMB area, using blood samples from local patients to identify population-specific selective processes. The result showed that considerable genetic diversity and mean pair-wise divergence among the sequenced P. vivax isolates were higher in some important gene families. Using the standardized integrated haplotype score (|iHS|) for all SNPs in chromosomal regions with SNPs above the top 1% distribution, it was observed that the top score locus involved 356 genes and most of them are associated with red blood cell invasion and immune evasion. The XP-EHH test was also applied and some important genes associated with anti-malarial drug resistance were observed in high positive scores list. This result suggests that P. vivax in CMB area is facing more pressure to survive than any other region and this has led to the strong positive selection of genes that are associated with host-parasite interactions.ConclusionsThis study suggests that greater genetic diversity in P. vivax from CMB area and positive selection signals in invasion and drug resistance genes are consistent with the history of drug use during malaria elimination programme in CMB area. Furthermore, this result also demonstrates that haplotype-based detecting selection can assist the genome-wide methods to identify the determinants of P. vivax diversity.

Assessing the impact of differences in malaria transmission intensity on clinical and haematological indices in children with malaria

BackgroundMalaria control interventions have led to a decline in transmission intensity in many endemic areas, and resulted in elimination in some areas. This decline, however, will lead to delayed acquisition of protective immunity and thus impact disease manifestation and outcomes. Therefore, the variation in clinical and haematological parameters in children with malaria was assessed across three areas in Ghana with varying transmission intensities.MethodsA total of 568 children between the ages of 2 and 14 years with confirmed malaria were recruited in hospitals in three areas with varying transmission intensities (Kintampo > Navrongo > Accra) and a comprehensive analysis of parasitological, clinical, haematological and socio-economic parameters was performed.ResultsAreas of lower malaria transmission tended to have lower disease severity in children with malaria, characterized by lower parasitaemias and higher haemoglobin levels. In addition, total white cell counts and percent lymphocytes decreased with decreasing transmission intensity. The heterozygous sickle haemoglobin genotype was protective against disease severity in Kintampo (P = 0.016), although this was not significant in Accra and Navrongo. Parasitaemia levels were not a significant predictor of haemoglobin level after controlling for age and gender. However, higher haemoglobin levels in children were associated with certain socioeconomic factors, such as having fathers who had any type of employment (P < 0.05) and mothers who were teachers (P < 0.05).ConclusionsThe findings demonstrate significant differences in the haematological presentation and severity of malaria among areas with different transmission intensity in Ghana, indicating that these factors need to be considered in planning the management of the disease as the endemicity is expected to decline after control interventions.