Variation In Phenology Research Articles

Evaluation of the effect of agroclimatic variables on the probability and timing of olive fruit fly attack.

Agroclimatic variables may affect insect and plant phenology, with unpredictable effects on pest populations and crop losses. Bactrocera oleae Rossi (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a specific pest of Olea europaea plants that can cause annual economic losses of more than one billion US dollars in the Mediterranean region. In this study, we aimed at understanding the effect of olive tree phenology and other agroclimatic variables on B. oleae infestation dynamics in the Umbria region (Central Italy). Analyses were carried out on B. oleae infestation data collected in 79 olive groves during a 7-year period (from 2015 to 2021). In July-August, B. oleae infestation (1% attack) was negatively affected by altitude and spring mean daily temperatures and positively by higher winter mean daily temperatures and olive tree cumulative degree days. In September-October, infestation was negatively affected by a positive soil water balance and high spring temperatures. High altitude and cumulative plant degree days were related to delayed attacks. In contrast, high winter and spring temperatures accelerated them. Our results could be helpful for the development of predictive models and for increasing the reliability of decision support systems currently used in olive orchards.

MODIS fPAR products do not reflect in-situ conditions in a tropical dry forest based on wavelet and cross-wavelet transforms

The fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR) plays a pivotal role in determining the carbon flux in ecosystems. Although the MODIS fPAR product has demonstrated effectiveness in the Northern Hemisphere, its validity still needs to be verified in the context of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs), which constitute 40% of all tropical forests. This study utilized a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) to generate an in-situ Green fPAR dataset at the Santa Rosa National Park Environmental Monitoring Supersite, aiming to validate MODIS fPAR products from 2013 to 2017. This study employs a 2-flux fPAR estimation approach for the in-situ dataset, followed by Savitzky–Golay derivative-based smoothing, univariate-wavelet transforms, and cross-wavelet analysis to compare phenological variables between the in-situ and MODIS fPAR datasets. Our findings reveal a significant temporal disparity between the MODIS fPAR products and ground-based data, with MODIS consistently lagging in detecting the onset of green-up or senescence in TDFs by 18–55 days. However, the annual and inter-seasonal patterns were statistically significant (p < 0.05) and replicated in the MODIS and in-situ datasets. Notably, these patterns deviate during extreme water conditions (droughts and hurricanes), with MODIS underestimating the effects of drought and failing to represent hurricane impact. Furthermore, MODIS fPAR products do not effectively capture small-scale fPAR variations and intra-seasonal differences. Therefore, this study underscores the limited accuracy of MODIS fPAR observations in the context of TDFs. Consequently, caution is warranted when relying on MODIS fPAR products to monitor rapid phenological changes in Tropical Dry Forests.

Phenology and Plant Functional Type Link Optical Properties of Vegetation Canopies to Patterns of Vertical Vegetation Complexity

Vegetation vertical complexity influences biodiversity and ecosystem productivity. Rapid warming in the boreal region is altering patterns of vertical complexity. LiDAR sensors offer novel structural metrics for quantifying these changes, but their spatiotemporal limitations and their need for ecological context complicate their application and interpretation. Satellite variables can estimate LiDAR metrics, but retrievals of vegetation structure using optical reflectance can lack interpretability and accuracy. We compare vertical complexity from the airborne LiDAR Land Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS) in boreal Canada and Alaska to plant functional type, optical, and phenological variables. We show that spring onset and green season length from satellite phenology algorithms are more strongly correlated with vegetation vertical complexity (R = 0.43–0.63) than optical reflectance (R = 0.03–0.43). Median annual temperature explained patterns of vegetation vertical complexity (R = 0.45), but only when paired with plant functional type data. Random forest models effectively learned patterns of vegetation vertical complexity using plant functional type and phenological variables, but the validation performance depended on the validation methodology (R2 = 0.50–0.80). In correlating satellite phenology, plant functional type, and vegetation vertical complexity, we propose new methods of retrieving vertical complexity with satellite data.

Tree species diversity drives the land surface phenology of seasonally dry tropical woodlands

Abstract Seasonal foliage display (leaf phenology) is a key determinant of ecosystem function. Variation in land surface phenology, observed via space‐borne remote sensing, can be explained at broad spatial scales by climate, but we lack understanding of how vegetation structure and floristic diversity mediates these relationships. This lack of understanding hampers our ability to predict changes in phenology and therefore ecosystem function, in light of rapid ongoing shifts in biodiversity and ecosystem structure due to land use and climate change. We combined a network of 619 vegetation monitoring sites across seasonally dry tropical deciduous woodlands in Zambia with land surface phenology metrics to investigate the role of tree species diversity, composition and vegetation structure on patterns of land surface phenology, including the phenomenon of pre‐rain green‐up. Tree species diversity was associated with earlier pre‐rain green‐up, a longer growing season, and greater cumulative foliage production. Independent of diversity, proportional abundance of Detarioideae species (subfamily of Fabaceae) was associated with a longer growing season by facilitating earlier pre‐rain green‐up. Woodland stands with larger trees green up earlier, suggesting access to deep groundwater reserves. Senescence metrics showed variation among sites but were not well‐explained by precipitation, temperature, structure or diversity. Synthesis: Tree diversity, composition and structure are co‐determinants of seasonal patterns of foliage display in seasonally dry tropical deciduous woodlands, as measured via land surface phenology, at regional scale. Our study identifies both a niche complementarity effect whereby diverse woodlands exhibit longer growing seasons, as well as a mass‐ratio effect whereby detarioid species drive earlier pre‐rain green‐up, providing insights into the mechanisms underlying the biodiversity ecosystem function relationship in this biome. We stress the importance of considering biotic controls on ecosystem functioning in the next generation of earth‐system models predicting the response of communities to global change.

Unpacking satellite pixels: UAVs reveal fine-scale drivers of land surface phenology in a winter rainfall shrubland

Land surface phenology (LSP) can reveal important connections between vegetation dynamics and climate but remains poorly understood in evergreen winter-rainfall shrublands globally. Field-based studies have indicated diverse plant functional strategies in shrublands, but further work is required to link LSP to vegetation functional composition in these regions. We analysed time-series of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in fynbos shrublands of South Africa using multi-spectral imagery from satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). We investigated the climate drivers of seasonal vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends at multiple spatial scales ranging from the landscape to individual species. At coarse spatial resolutions, NDVI time-series indicated rainfall-driven vegetation dynamics in fynbos, both at inter and intra-annual time scales. However, high-resolution time-series from UAVs exposed an underlying divergence in vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends between shallow and deep-rooted growth forms. Phenophases and NDVI trends of isolated, deep-rooted, overstory shrubs were decoupled from rainfall relative to dense overstory patches and shallow-rooted understory growth forms. Variations in growth form phenology were not detected at coarse spatial scales due to scaling and competitive effects based on the functional composition of the vegetation.

Assessment of Phenological Dynamics of Different Vegetation Types and Their Environmental Drivers with Near-Surface Remote Sensing: A Case Study on the Loess Plateau of China.

Plant phenology is an important indicator of the impact of climate change on ecosystems. We have continuously monitored vegetation phenology using near-surface remote sensing, i.e., the PhenoCam in a gully region of the Loess Plateau of China from March 2020 to November 2022. In each image, three regions of interest (ROIs) were selected to represent different types of vegetation (scrub, arbor, and grassland), and five vegetation indexes were calculated within each ROI. The results showed that the green chromatic coordinate (GCC), excess green index (ExG), and vegetation contrast index (VCI) all well-captured seasonal changes in vegetation greenness. The PhenoCam captured seasonal trajectories of different vegetation that reflect differences in vegetation growth. Such differences may be influenced by external abiotic environmental factors. We analyzed the nonlinear response of the GCC series to environmental variables with the generalized additive model (GAM). Our results suggested that soil temperature was an important driver affecting plant phenology in the Loess gully region, especially the scrub showed a significant nonlinear response to soil temperature change. Since in situ phenology monitoring experiments of the small-scale on the Loess Plateau are still relatively rare, our work provides a reference for further understanding of vegetation phenological variations and ecosystem functions on the Loess Plateau.

Seasonal optimisation of drone‐based photogrammetry in a heterogeneous boreal landscape

AbstractAimsUncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), or drones, have become more affordable and easier to use, resulting in increased UAV applications in ecology and conservation. However, solar illumination, vegetation phenology and prevailing weather conditions will impact the quality of the derived products to differing degrees. In this study, we investigate how seasonal differences in solar illumination, tree foliage and weather conditions impact the accuracy of digital elevation models (DEM) and canopy height models (CHM) in a heterogeneous boreal landscape.MethodsWe compared DEMs and CHMs derived from drone photogrammetry with DEMs and CHMs produced from a drone‐mounted laser scanner across three seasons with different solar illumination, tree foliage and weather conditions during leaf‐off and leaf‐on seasons. Photogrammetric height models were evaluated across three land‐cover classes consisting of open areas, sparse‐forest and forest. The most accurate CHM for sparse‐forest was produced during summer under overcast conditions, whereas for the forest class, summer under clear skies was best.ResultsStructure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry performed well against the LiDAR survey in most cases with correlations between sampled points of up to R2 = 0.995. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) were &lt;1.5 m in all DEMs and as low as 0.31 m in autumn clear‐sky data over open terrain. CHM RMSEs were somewhat higher in all cases except under winter overcast conditions when the RMSE for sparse‐forest reached 6.03 m.ConclusionsWe have shown that SfM photogrammetry is surprisingly robust to variations in vegetation type, tree phenology and weather, and performs well in comparison with a reference LiDAR data set. Our results show that, in boreal forests, autumn is the preferred season under clear‐sky conditions for DEM generation from SfM photogrammetry across all land‐cover classes, whereas summer is preferred for CHM modelling with a small trade‐off between overcast and clear‐sky conditions over different vegetation types. These results can help potential SfM users in ecology and forestry plan missions and review the quality of products derived from drone photogrammetry products.

Temporal variation in river ice phenology of the Heilongjiang River in response to climate change

Study regionUpstream of the Heilongjiang River, located in Northeast Asia, is the transboundary river between China and Russia. Study focusUsing long-term hydrological records provided by the Mohe station in combination with multiple statistical approaches, we investigate how river ice phenology of the Heilongjiang River has varied during the period 1957–2016, and quantitatively assess the individual contribution of changes in different climatic factors to such variation in river ice phenology. New insights for the regionWe show the later occurrence for newly formed ice date, ice-on date, and freeze-up date and the earlier occurrence for beak-up date and ice-off date, ultimately leading to a decrease in persistence of river ice in the Heilongjiang River. River ice phenology exhibits a general lag response to climate change, with ranging from 1 to 5 months. Further attribution analysis that explicitly considers time-lag effect suggests that climate change plays a dominant role in regulating river ice phenology. More specifically, compared to other climatic factors, air pressure and maximum and minimum temperature changes have larger contributions to variation in river ice phenology, particularly for the delay of formation time. These findings provide technical basis and beneficial reference to the development of regional river management strategies involved in climate change adaptation framework.

Ensemble machine learning for interpretable soil heat flux estimation

Soil heat flux (SHF) is a key component of the surface energy balance and driver of soil physiochemical and biological processes. Accurate estimation of soil heat flux is challenging due to variations in soil composition, overlying vegetation density and phenology, and highly variable environmental forcings. Existing SHF process-based and data-driven estimation methods have focused on midday landscape scale estimates that correspond to satellite acquisitions, despite the high variability that SHF displays at diurnal scales and throughout the growing season. Recently developed data-driven techniques have emphasized pre-determined predictor variables, with model complexity and predictor selection not carefully evaluated, leaving a gap in our understanding of what information is required to accurately predict SHF. Here we developed and evaluated a suite of ensemble machine learning (ML) models to quantify the ability of meteorological and remote sensing data to predict SHF variability at half-hourly temporal resolution throughout a growing season, producing a comprehensive evaluation of the importance of predictor set composition for SHF estimation at high temporal resolution. We compared this suite of machine learning models to six semi-empirical models and found that the machine learning models broadly outperformed the existing models in capturing diurnal variability across the growing season for four agro-ecosystems (soybean, corn, sorghum, and miscanthus). Crop-specific ML models were able to capture over 86% of the variability in SHF using only two predictor variables, pointing to the need for careful evaluation of predictor sets to identify synergistic combinations. ML models developed using pooled data across all crops captured almost 80% of SHF variability using three predictors, demonstrating the power and generalizability of these methods independent of crop type. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to examine model interpretability, providing insights into the typically opaque ML modelling process and interaction of predictor variables. Models trained with fewer input variables tended to display more linear and interpretable feature attribution, motivating the use of interpretability as an important consideration in parsimonious model selection. These results provide a robust demonstration of the ability of ML to capture the variability in SHF at sub-hourly resolution across growing seasons spanning a wide range of phenological variation for unique agricultural systems. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of predictor requirements for model performance, guiding future applications that will take advantage of the next generation of satellite-based observing systems, or in-situ proximal observations of vegetation status and meteorological conditions.

Variación intra e interespecífica en fenología y espectroscopía foliares de nueve especies de arbustos de Baja California

Variación intra e interespecífica en fenología y espectroscopía foliares de nueve especies de arbustos de Baja California

Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000–2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040–2050 and 2090–2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Spatiotemporal variation in phenology of the invasive brown macroalga Sargassum muticum (Yendo) Fensholt and the environmental parameters relationships along four different sites on the Atlantic coast of Morocco

The alien brown seaweed Sargassum muticum (Yendo) Fensholt is currently observed along the coasts of Morocco. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of physicochemical parameters on the distribution of S. muticum at four sites on the Atlantic coast of Morocco harvested between 2019 and 2020. This study showed that the highest biomass, thalli length, and fertility values were recorded in sampling sites characterized by optimal physicochemical (temperature, pH, and salinity) and nutrient H₃PO₄ during summer. The highest biomass values were recorded in August for Sidi Bouzid and Moulay Abdellah sites, conversely, in Saada and Jorf Lasfar sites the highest values were observed in February and March respectively. The thallus length was slightly larger in Moulay Abdellah site with 77.30 ± 14.09 cm compared with the three other sites during the summer/spring periods. Minimum thalli length was recorded in September for all studied sites. The thalli of S. muticum were fertile earlier in Sidi Bouzid and Saada during spring and peaked during the summer season for all studied sites showing a positive correlation with increasing temperature.Finally, the collected data shows that indeed physicochemical parameters influence bioecological parameters. Thus, contributed to a better understanding of the temporal variation of S. muticum phenology on the Moroccan Atlantic coast, these data provide the necessary information for coastal marine management and biomonitoring program as well as sustainable utilization of this renewable marine resource.

Multi-factor Impact Analysis of Grassland Phenology Changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Based on Interpretable Machine Learning

The vegetation phenology of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is changing significantly in the context of climate change. However, there are many hydrothermal factors affecting the phenology, and few studies have focused on the effects of multiple factors on the phenology of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, resulting in a lack of understanding of the mechanisms underlying phenological changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. In this study, we used remote sensing data interpretation to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of grassland phenology on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 2002 to 2021, focusing on precipitation, temperature, altitude, soil, and other aspects to reveal the dominant factors of phenological variability using an interpretable machine learning method (SHAP) and to quantify the interactive effects of multiple factors on phenology. The results showed that:① The growing season start (SOS) of grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau mostly ranged from 110 to 150 d, with 56.32 % of grasslands showing an early SOS trend; the growing season end (EOS) mostly ranged from 290-320 d, with 67.65 % of grasslands showing a delayed EOS trend; and the growing season length (LOS) mostly ranged from 120 to 210 d, with 65.50 % of the grasslands showing a trend towards longer growing season lengths. ② SOS in grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was mainly influenced by moisture conditions, in which soil moisture between 10 and 25 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March promoted the advancement of SOS and peaked at approximately 20 kg·m-2. EOS was mainly influenced by temperature, with higher temperatures in September and October having a stronger effect on EOS latency promotion and peaking at over 8 ℃ and -0.5 ℃, respectively. The main influencing factors of LOS were more consistent with SOS, in which soil moisture between 15 and 25 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March promoted the prolongation of LOS and peaked at approximately 18 kg·m-2. ③ There was an obvious interactive effect of water and heat and other factors on phenology; after soil moisture reached 20 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March, SOS was more advanced in low-precipitation and low-altitude areas. Better moisture conditions were more conducive to EOS delay at temperatures above 0 ℃ in October, and soil moisture in high precipitation areas promoted LOS prolongation more when soil moisture was between 12 and 22 kg·m-2 in 0-10 cm in March. The results also demonstrated that interpretable machine learning methods could provide a new approach to the analysis of the multifactorial effects of phenological change.

Thermal imaging can reveal variation in stay-green functionality of wheat canopies under temperate conditions.

Canopy temperature (CT) is often interpreted as representing leaf activity traits such as photosynthetic rates, gas exchange rates, or stomatal conductance. This interpretation is based on the observation that leaf activity traits correlate with transpiration which affects leaf temperature. Accordingly, CT measurements may provide a basis for high throughput assessments of the productivity of wheat canopies during early grain filling, which would allow distinguishing functional from dysfunctional stay-green. However, whereas the usefulness of CT as a fast surrogate measure of sustained vigor under soil drying is well established, its potential to quantify leaf activity traits under high-yielding conditions is less clear. To better understand sensitivity limits of CT measurements under high yielding conditions, we generated within-genotype variability in stay-green functionality by means of differential short-term pre-anthesis canopy shading that modified the sink:source balance. We quantified the effects of these modifications on stay-green properties through a combination of gold standard physiological measurements of leaf activity and newly developed methods for organ-level senescence monitoring based on timeseries of high-resolution imagery and deep-learning-based semantic image segmentation. In parallel, we monitored CT by means of a pole-mounted thermal camera that delivered continuous, ultra-high temporal resolution CT data. Our results show that differences in stay-green functionality translate into measurable differences in CT in the absence of major confounding factors. Differences amounted to approximately 0.8°C and 1.5°C for a very high-yielding source-limited genotype, and a medium-yielding sink-limited genotype, respectively. The gradual nature of the effects of shading on CT during the stay-green phase underscore the importance of a high measurement frequency and a time-integrated analysis of CT, whilst modest effect sizes confirm the importance of restricting screenings to a limited range of morphological and phenological diversity.

Ice phenology interactions with water and air temperatures in high mountain lakes

Ice phenology is of great importance for the thermal structure of lakes and ponds and the biology of lake species. Under the current climate change conditions, ice-cover duration has been reduced by an advance in ice-off, and a delay in ice-on, and future projections foresee this trend as continuing. Here, we describe the current ice phenology of Pyrenean high mountain lakes and ponds, including ice-cover duration and ice-on and ice-off dates. We used mixed models to identify the variables that explained the observed patterns, extrapolated them across all water bodies in the mountain range, and related the seasonality of air and water temperatures with ice phenology using structural equation models. Ice phenology was obtained from the temperature series of 85 lakes and ponds for fourteen years, including 2001 to 2004 and 2009 to 2019. We discovered that high autumn precipitation was related to earlier ice-on dates, and that earlier ice-off dates were associated with higher following-summer water temperatures. We found a greater predictability of ice-off dates and ice-cover duration than ice-on dates. Altitude was the most important variable explaining the variation in ice phenology, followed by latitude, which was related to climatic differences among the northern and southern slopes of the mountain range. The lake area was significant for ice-on dates and ice-cover duration. The interannual variability in air temperature and radiation was remarkable for the ice-off date and ice-cover duration but not for the ice-on date. In contrast, wind speed was related to an earlier ice-off date and shorter ice-cover duration. All the measured lakes and ponds froze in winter during the studied period, a feature maintained in the extrapolation to the whole set of water bodies.

Detection of forest disturbance across California using deep-learning on PlanetScope imagery

California forests have recently experienced record breaking wildfires and tree mortality from droughts, However, there is inadequate monitoring, and limited data to inform policies and management strategies across the state. Although forest surveys and satellite observations of forest cover changes exist at medium to coarse resolutions (30–500 m) annually, they remain less effective in mapping small disturbances of forest patches (&amp;lt;5 m) occurring multiple times a year. We introduce a novel method of tracking California forest cover using a supervised U-Net deep learning architecture and PlanetScope’s Visual dataset which provides 3-band RGB (Red, Green, and Blue) mosaicked imagery. We created labels of forest and non-forest to train the U-Net model to map tree cover based on a semi-unsupervised classification method. We then detected changes of tree cover and disturbance with the U-Net model, achieving an overall accuracy of 98.97% over training data set, and 95.5% over an independent validation dataset, obtaining a precision of 82%, and a recall of 74%. With the predicted tree cover mask, we created wall to wall monthly tree cover maps over California at 4.77 m resolution for 2020, 2021, and 2022. These maps were then aggregated in a post-processing step to develop annual maps of disturbance, while accounting for the time of disturbance and other confounding factors such as topography, phenological and snow cover variability. We compared our high-resolution disturbance maps with wildfire GIS survey data from CALFIRE, and satellite-based forest cover changes and achieved an F-1 score of 54% and 88% respectively. The results suggest that high-resolution maps capture variability of forest disturbance and fire that wildfire surveys and medium resolution satellite products cannot. From 2020 to 2021, California maintained 30,923.5 sq km of forest while 5,994.9 sq km were disturbed. The highest observed forest loss rate was located at the Sierra Nevada mountains at 21.4% of the forested area being disturbed between 2020 and 2021. Our findings highlight the strong potential of deep learning and high-resolution RGB optical imagery for mapping complex forest ecosystems and their changes across California, as well as the application of these techniques on a national to global scale.

Recent Cereal Phenological Variations under Mediterranean Conditions

This study analyzes the temporal patterns of rainfed cereal phenology extracted from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset in the main cereal-growing regions under a Mediterranean climate in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy during the period 1982–2022. The series before and after the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed separately. Phenological parameters were extracted using the modified dynamic threshold method, and their trends were analyzed. Correlation analyses were performed to study the relationships among these parameters and to analyze the influence of hydroclimatic variables on the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season. Results showed a temporal reversal in phenological trends between both study periods, coinciding with the global warming hiatus. In the first period (1982–2002), SOS and EOS advanced (−7.5 and −3.1 days, respectively), and the length of growing season (LOS) increased. However, during the second stage (2003–2022), SOS and EOS were delayed (7.5 and 1.7 days, respectively), and LOS decreased. Similar dynamics were observed for the influence of the hydroclimatic variables on SOS and EOS, stronger in the first period and weaker in the second. This study provides valuable information on the phenological dynamics of rainfed cereals that may be useful for their management and planning in climate change scenarios.

Soundscape mapping: understanding regional spatial and temporal patterns of soundscapes incorporating remotely-sensed predictors and wildfire disturbance

Increased environmental threats require proper monitoring of animal communities to understand where and when changes occur. Ecoacoustic tools that quantify natural acoustic environments use a combination of biophony (animal sound) and geophony (wind, rain, and other natural phenomena) to represent the natural soundscape and, in comparison to anthropophony (technological human sound) can highlight valuable landscapes to both human and animal communities. However, recording these sounds requires intensive deployment of recording devices and storage and interpretation of large amounts of data, resulting in large data gaps across the landscape and periods in which recordings are absent. Interpolating ecoacoustic metrics like biophony, geophony, anthropophony, and acoustic indices can bridge these gaps in observations and provide insight across larger spatial extents and during periods of interest. Here, we use seven ecoacoustic metrics and acoustically-derived bird species richness across a heterogeneous landscape composed of densely urbanized, suburban, rural, protected, and recently burned lands in Sonoma County, California, U.S.A., to explore spatiotemporal patterns in ecoacoustic measurements. Predictive models of ecoacoustic metrics driven by land-use/land-cover, remotely-sensed vegetation structure, anthropogenic impact, climate, geomorphology, and phenology variables capture landscape and daily differences in ecoacoustic patterns with varying performance (avg. R 2 = 0.38 ± 0.11) depending on metric and period-of-day and provide interpretable patterns in sound related to human activity, weather phenomena, and animal activity. We also offer a case study on the use of the data-driven prediction of biophony to capture changes in soniferous species activity before (1–2 years prior) and after (1–2 years post) wildfires in our study area and find that biophony may depict the reorganization of acoustic communities following wildfires. This is demonstrated by an upward trend in activity 1–2 years post-wildfire, particularly in more severely burned areas. Overall, we provide evidence of the importance of climate, spaceborne-lidar-derived forest structure, and phenological time series characteristics when modeling ecoacoustic metrics to upscale site observations and map ecoacoustic biodiversity in areas without prior acoustic data collection. Resulting maps can identify areas of attention where changes in animal communities occur at the edge of human and natural disturbances.

Unraveling the drivers and impacts of leaf phenological diversity in a subtropical forest: A fine-scale analysis using PlanetScope CubeSats.

Leaf phenology variations within plant communities shape community assemblages and influence ecosystem properties and services. However, questions remain regarding quantification, drivers, and productivity impacts of intra-site leaf phenological diversity. With a 50-ha subtropical forest plot in China's Heishiding Provincial Nature Reserve (part of the global ForestGEO network) as a testbed, we gathered a unique dataset combining ground-derived abiotic (topography, soil) and biotic (taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, functional traits) factors. We investigated drivers underlying leaf phenological diversity extracted from high-resolution PlanetScope data, and its influence on aboveground biomass (AGB) using structural equation modeling (SEM). Our results reveal considerable fine-scale leaf phenological diversity across the subtropical forest landscape. This diversity is directly and indirectly influenced by abiotic and biotic factors (e.g. slope, soil, traits, taxonomic diversity; r2 = 0.43). While a notable bivariate relationship between AGB and leaf phenological diversity was identified (r = -0.24, P < 0.05), this relationship did not hold in SEM analysis after considering interactions with other biotic and abiotic factors (P > 0.05). These findings unveil the underlying mechanism regulating intra-site leaf phenological diversity. While leaf phenology is known to be associated with ecosystem properties, our findings confirm that AGB is primarily influenced by functional trait composition and taxonomic diversity rather than leaf phenological diversity.

Long-term declines in chlorophyll a and variable phenology revealed by a 60-year estuarine plankton time series

Long-term ecological time series provide a unique perspective on the emergent properties of ecosystems. In aquatic systems, phytoplankton form the base of the food web and their biomass, measured as the concentration of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophyll a (chl a), is an indicator of ecosystem quality. We analyzed temporal trends in chl a from the Long-Term Plankton Time Series in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, a temperate estuary experiencing long-term warming and changing anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Dynamic linear models were used to impute and model environmental variables (1959 to 2019) and chl a concentrations (1968 to 2019). A long-term chl a decrease was observed with an average decline in the cumulative annual chl a concentration of 49% and a marked decline of 57% in winter-spring bloom magnitude. The long-term decline in chl a concentration was directly and indirectly associated with multiple environmental factors that are impacted by climate change (e.g., warming temperatures, water column stratification, reduced nutrient concentrations) indicating the importance of accounting for regional climate change effects in ecosystem-based management. Analysis of seasonal phenology revealed that the winter-spring bloom occurred earlier, at a rate of 4.9 ± 2.8 d decade-1. Finally, the high degree of temporal variation in phytoplankton biomass observed in Narragansett Bay appears common among estuaries, coasts, and open oceans. The commonality among these marine ecosystems highlights the need to maintain a robust set of phytoplankton time series in the coming decades to improve signal-to-noise ratios and identify trends in these highly variable environments.