Unemployment Variables Research Articles

Modelling and Forecasting Unemployment Trends in Kenya Using Advanced Machine Learning Techniques

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis exploring the relationship between key macroeconomic indicators and the unemployment rate, alongside evaluating the predictive accuracy of modern regression models. The correlation analysis examines the association between unemployment rate percentages and five macroeconomic variables: real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, gross public debt as a percentage of GDP, population size, government revenue as a percentage of GDP, and government expenditure as a percentage of GDP. The results highlight significant correlations, particularly the strong positive relationship between unemployment rates and gross public debt (% of GDP) (0.8417), while real GDP growth shows a weak correlation (0.0783), indicating that debt levels may be a more crucial determinant of unemployment variations in this context. Additionally, a comparison of modern regression models, namely Support Vector Regression (SVR), Neural Network Regression, and Bayesian Regression, is conducted based on their performance metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), R-Squared, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the models, Support Vector Regression outperforms the others, with the lowest MAE (0.0823), RMSE (0.0878), and the highest R-Squared value (0.9915), along with notably favourable AIC (-100.2072) and BIC (-69.4268) scores. Neural Network Regression also delivers competitive performance with a slightly higher MAE and RMSE but a similarly strong R-Squared (0.9887). In contrast, Bayesian Regression exhibits weaker predictive power with higher error metrics (MAE = 0.2579, RMSE = 0.3109) and a significantly lower R-Squared (0.8806), AIC (28.0408), and BIC (36.8352). These findings underscore the efficacy of SVR in predictive modelling for macroeconomic datasets, suggesting its suitability for unemployment rate forecasting.

Pengaruh Pengangguran, Belanja Modal dan Belanja Bantuan Sosial terhadap Kemiskinan di Kota Banjarbaru Tahun 2010-2020

This study was conducted to (1) analyze the effect of Unemlployment, Caapital Expeenditure and Social Assistance Expenditure simultaneously on Poverty in Banjarbaru City in 2010-2020; (2) analyze the effect of unemployment, capital expenditure and partial in Banjarbaru City in 2010-2020. Descriptive quantitative and using multiple linear regression analysis techniques with time series and using Eviews 10 software is a type of this research. This study provides results that show that independently, namely Unemployment, Capital Expenditure and Social Assistance Expenditure have a significant effect on Poverty in Banjarbaru City 2010-2020. Only the variable of Unemployment has a significant effect on Poverty in Banjarbaru City in 2010-2020.

Panel Data: Study Of Income Inequality In West Sumatra

This research aims to analyze the factors that influence income inequality in West Sumatra Province. Some of the variables that are taken into consideration are: unemployment, education and poverty. The research uses secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), using panel data regression analysis in 19 Regencies/Cities in West Sumatra Province, during 2017-2023. The selected research model uses the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The research results show that: (1) the unemployment variable has a positive and insignificant effect on income inequality, (2) the education variable has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, (3) the poverty variable has a positive and significant effect on income inequality.

The Effect Of Poverty, Unemployment, And Investment On Economic Growth In The Province Of North Sumatera in 2001-2020

The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of poverty, unemployment and investment on economic growth. Where this study uses time series data with the time period 2001-2020. The analytical method uses multiple linear regression with the Eviews program. The poor population variable has a negative and significant effect on poverty with a t-value of -3.225849 and Prob. of 0.0053 <0.05. Unemployment variable has a negative and insignificant effect on poverty with a t-value of -0.427385 and Prob. 0.6748 > 0.05. The investment variable has a positive and significant effect on poverty with a t-value of 7.932790 and Prob. of 0.0000 <0.05. In the final stage of the statistical test, it is known that the R2 squared value is 0.954978. This shows that the poor, unemployment, and investment are able to explain GRDP by 95%. And the remaining 5% is influenced by other variables not examined in this study.

The influence of regional minimum wages on unemployment rates in Indonesia multiple linear regression analysis

Background: This study investigates the influence of regional minimum wages, along with gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation, on unemployment rates in Indonesia from 2012 to 2020. Method: Multiple linear regression analysis is employed to examine the relationships between these economic variables. Findings: The findings reveal that regional minimum wages have a significant negative effect on unemployment rates, indicating that a 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to a 3.951% decrease in unemployment, ceteris paribus. GDP also exhibits a significant negative influence, aligning with Okun's law which suggests an inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment. In contrast, inflation does not significantly impact unemployment rates during the studied period. Collectively, the three variables positively and significantly affect Indonesia's unemployment rate, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.749. This implies that 74.9% of the variation in unemployment can be explained by GDP, inflation, and minimum wages, while other factors account for the remaining 25.1%. Conclusion: The study highlights the complex interplay between these macroeconomic indicators and unemployment, providing insights for policymakers to develop effective strategies for managing employment challenges in Indonesia. Novelty/Originality of this study: This empirical analysis reveals the dynamic relationship between regional minimum wages, GDP, inflation, and unemployment in Indonesia (2012-2020). The findings provide an evidence-based basis for formulating more effective and responsive employment and economic policies for Indonesia's labour market conditions.

A Study on the Impact of Inflation, Poverty, and Unemployment on Income Inequality at Cermin Beach, Serdang Bedagai Regency

One of the causes of income inequality is the large number of poor and unemployed people. The relationship between inflation, poverty, unemployment and income inequality shows a continuous interaction of these three factors. The aim is to determine the effect of inflation, poverty and unemployment on income inequality in the district. Mirror Beach, Kab. Serdang Bedagai. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the 2019-2023 time period. The analytical method used is quantitative). The software used for analysis is spss 26.0. The research results show that the inflation variable has an effect on income inequality. The poverty variable has no effect on income inequality, the unemployment variable has an effect on income inequality and together the inflation, poverty and unemployment variables have a significant effect on income inequality in the district. Cermin Beach, Kab. Serdang Bedagai.

DETERMINATION OF POVERTY LEVELS IN ACEH PROVINCE

This research was conducted to analyze the effect of the Open Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, HDI Level and ZIS Realization on the Poverty Level in Aceh Province. The data secondary from data Aceh Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in the form of data on the Percentage of Poor Population as the dependent variable, data from 18 districts and 5 cities in Aceh Province represented by data on the Open Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, HDI Rate and data on the realization of Zakat, Infaq and Sadaqah (ZIS) from Baitul Mal Aceh in 2007-2021. The data analysis technique used to test the hypothesis in this study is multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that; Partially the unemployment variable has no significant effect on the poverty rate in Aceh Province, this can be seen from the sig value which is 0.107 > 0.05. The inflation that has no significant effect on the poverty, this can be seen from sig value wich is 0.309>0.05. The human development index variable that also has no significant effect on the poverty, its a sig value of 0.162 > 0.05. The ZIS realization variable that has significant effect on the poverty this can be seen from the sig value which is 0.000 < 0.05.. Based on the description above, it can be concluded that open unemployment, the inflation rate and the HDI level have no effect on poverty and the only the realization of zakat has an effect on the poverty level in Aceh province.

Variation in Unemployment in India

Variation in Unemployment in India

Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan dan Pengangguran terhadap Angka Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Lampung Timur Tahun 2012-2022

This research aims to describe how the level of education and unemployment influence poverty in East Lampung district. This research focuses on data for the period 2012 to 2022, using a multiple linear regression data processing approach where the results of the f test show that simultaneously The influence of education level and unemployment has a significant influence on poverty in East Lampung district, the education level variable has a significant negative effect on poverty while the unemployment variable has no influence on poverty in East Lampung district. It is hoped that this research can help government policies to minimize the occurrence of poverty, unemployment and motivate the population to continue to be highly educated so that the amount of poverty is reduced and can increase the value of the population's income and increase the regional GDP of East Lampung district.

Hubungan Antara Produk Domestik Regional Bruto dan Pengangguran di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2011-2020

Labor is one of the indicators used to see the development and economic conditions of a region. Economic growth and the growth of the Labor Force are traditionally considered as one of the positive factors that spur economic growth. Central Java Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia which in 2020 through the 2020 Population Census has a total population of 36,516,035 people, occupying the third position among the provinces in Indonesia with the highest population. With the population increasing every year, the number of unemployed also increases because the labor force cannot be absorbed into the available jobs. The value of labor absorbed in an economic sector can describe the workforce that is included in the labor force that is able to be absorbed by economic sectors. The relationship between GRDP and unemployment is explained through Okun's Law. Okun's law states that for every 2 percent decrease in GRDP related to potential GRDP, the unemployment rate increases by about 1 percent so it can be concluded that the unemployment rate has a negative relationship with GRDP growth.The method used in this study is panel data regression method using the REM model. The data used in this study is data on the GDP and unemployment of Central Java Province in 2011-2020.The result of this research is that the GRDP variable has a positive relationship to the unemployment variable. This is not in line with Okun's Law which explains that the relationship between GRDP and unemployment has a negative relationship. So it can be concluded that Okun's Law cannot be applied in cases in Central Java Province. Keywords: GRDP, unemployment, Okun's Law, Random Effect Model (REM)

The Influence of Zakat Fund and Macroeconomic Variable on Economic Development in Indonesia and Bangladesh

This study aims to analyze the effect of zakat funds and macroeconomic variables on economic development in Indonesia and Bangladesh for the 2010-2019 period. This study uses secondary data with a time series data model of zakat funds, macroeconomic variables consisting of taxes, unemployment, economic growth (GDP), poverty, and the human development index (HDI) from both countries. Furthermore, the data were tested using multiple linear regression models and simultaneous model tests, to obtain test results and complex analysis of the effects of exogenous and endogenous variables on the economic development of the two countries, with the help of the EVIEWS application version 9. The results showed that zakat funds had an effect on positive and significant effect on economic growth in both countries, taxes have a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth in both countries, poverty has a positive and insignificant effect in Indonesia, and insignificant negative in Bangladesh. While the results of the influence of the simultaneous model include; there is a simultaneous effect of zakat, unemployment, and poverty on economic growth in Indonesia and Bangladesh. There is no simultaneous effect between the variables of tax, unemployment, and poverty on economic growth, and there is a simultaneous effect between the variables of the human development index (HDI), poverty, and unemployment on economic growth in Indonesia and Bangladesh.

Analisis Jumlah Pengangguran, Belanja Langsung, dan Pengeluaran Perkapita Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan

One social problem that is hard to deal with is poverty, basically the poor are weak in their ability to do business and have limited access to social, educational, health and economic activities. This study is to see the effect of the variables of Total Unemployment, Direct Expenditure, and Per Capita Expenditure on poverty in the province of South Kalimantan 2015-2019. Using secondary data (pooled data) panel data regression models or a combination of time series and cross section data with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach from 2015-2019 processed with E-Views 10 software. The regression results show a simultaneous significant effect of the independent variables, namely Total Unemployment, Direct Expenditure, and Government Expenditure on Total Poverty in South Kalimantan Province. While partially the significant effect only occurs in the Per Capita Expenditure variable.

PENGARUH IPM, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP KEMISKINAN KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2017-2019

Central Java Province is a province with a poverty rate percentage that ranks second in Java after DIY, but the poverty rate in Central Java Province is still quite high because it is still above the national poverty rate. This study aims to analyze the effect of the Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth and unemployment rates in districts/cities in Central Java Province in 2017-2019.Based on the data used, in this study using panel data regression analysis with the fixed effect method which was tested using the Eviews 9.0 application. The data used in this study is secondary data. The independent variables used in this study are the Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth and unemployment rates, while the dependent variable used is the poverty rate in 35 regencies/cities in Central Java Province in 2017-2019.The results of this research that the Human Development Index (HDI) had a positive effect on the poverty rate in districts/cities in Central Java Province in 2017-2019. Variables of economic growth and unemployment had no significant effect on the poverty rate. The variables of the Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth and the unemployment rate together have a significant effect on poverty in Central Java Province in districts/cities in Central Java Province in 2017-2019. Keywords: poverty, human development index (HDI), economic growth, unemployment rate

Analysis Of The Influence Of Domestic Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Popu-lation, Crime Rate, And Unemployment Rate On Economic Growth In Deli Serdang Regency: ARDL Model Approach

The aim of development in a country or region is to improve the welfare and prosperity of society in a fair and equitable manner, one of which is by increasing sustainable economic growth. The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of domestic investment, foreign investment, population, crime and unemployment on economic growth in Deli Serdang Regency. The data analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach in the time series data model and the observation time span of this study starts from 2010 to 2021 where data interpolation will be carried out in quarterly. According to the results of the analysis, the variables domestic investment and foreign direct investment have a positive significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the variables of population, crime and unemployment have a negative significant impact on economic growth in the long run. However, in the short run, the variables of direct investment, foreign investment, population and crime have a positive significant impact on economic growth. On the other hand, only the number of unemployed has a negative significant effect on economic growth. Based on the results of this study, it is appropriate for the Government of Deli Serdang Regency to optimize programs that are oriented towards increasing investment both domestic and foreign, suppressing the rate of population growth and the number of unemployed and maintaining regional security in the Deli Serdang Regency area.

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) APPROACH

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of unemployment variables on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by employing the Error Correction Model methodology. This research is conducted in Central Kalimantan from 2012 to 2023. According to the cointegration testing findings using the ECM approach, the probability of the unemployment variable is 0.3788, which is greater than the significance level of 0.05. There is a lack of cointegration or long-term balance relationship between the variables, which means that testing cannot be conducted over an extended period of time. The ECM test findings indicate that there is no significant short-term impact of the unemployment variable on GRDP in Central Kalimantan. This is supported by the probability value of the unemployment variable, which is 0.2660, above the threshold of 0.05. According to the classical assumption test, there are no signs of autocorrelation in the research model. Additionally, the Jarque Berra probability value of 0.764092 is greater than 0.05, indicating that there are no signs of heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the research model can be considered normally distributed.

Embodied technological progress, heterogeneous multiworker firms, and unemployment

Abstract This paper studies the impact of technological progress on unemployment in a search-matching model with heterogeneous multiworker firms. In the model, some firms continue to reap rewards from new technologies over time and contribute to job creation, while other firms obsolesce and reduce their employment. Thus, the model captures an endogenous change in the aggregate composition of firms (the firm-composition effect). Considering this effect along with the two canonical effects—the capitalization and creative-destruction effects—I examine the importance of each through a simulation. The results show that the firm-composition effect explains almost all the variation in unemployment in the model, mainly through shrinking the number of obsolescing firms relative to surviving firms and increasing the aggregate technology adoption rate when technology progresses rapidly.

DETERMINAN MIGRASI INTERNASIONAL TENAGA KERJA

Labor migration is a phenomenon that occurs in various regions, especially East Java Province as one of the provinces that has a high level of productivity. The movement of labor can be influenced by various factors. This study aims to analyze the determinants of international labor migration in East Java in 2015-2019. the type of data used in this study is secondary data. The research method used in this research is panel data regression. The results of the study show that the GRDP variable influences positively but not significantly, while poverty and unemployment variables influences negatively and react not significantly. Meanwhile, the district/city minimum wage variable influences negatively and significantly on the number of international labor migration in East Java.

Pengaruh Ekspor dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kalimantan Timur

This study aims to determine the effect of exports and unemployment on economic growth in East Kalimantan Province in 2008-2022. This type of research is quantitative with documentation data collection techniques in the form of times series data consisting of export data, unemployment and economic growth in East Kalimantan in 2008-2022. The analysis method used in the research is multiple regression analysis. Based on the results of the t test for export variables partially and significantly affect economic growth in East Kalimantan in 2008-2022. Meanwhile, the unemployment variable has no partial and insignificant effect on economic growth in East Kalimantan in 2008-2022. Furthermore, the simultaneous significant test results have a significant effect on the economic growth variable (Y) in East Kalimantan in 2008-2022. Based on the coefficient test, exports and unemployment had an effect of 48.2% on the dependent variable of economic growth. While the remaining 51.8% is influenced by other variables not examined in this study.

Where does money matter more?

There is much still to learn about the relationship between income and well-being, and in particular how this may depend on the economic and social context. We use Russian data to estimate individual Welfare Functions of Income, and examine two potentially context-dependent concepts: self-assessed income needs and welfare sensitivity to income (how well-being changes with income). The considerable geographical diversity in Russia provides within-country variation in GDP, inequality, population density, and unemployment. We first show that income needs exceed actual income on average in Russia, and that these needs are less sensitive to changes in income than in other countries. Second, income needs vary by individual characteristics, while welfare sensitivity does not. Welfare sensitivity is however related to the regional context. Last, our estimated contextual results help us to understand why the existing literature has produced such a wide range of results.

Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Tingkat Pendidikan, Inflasi dan Pengangguran terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Flores Timur Tahun 2013-2022

This study aims to determine the effect of population, education level, inflation and unemployment on poverty levels in East Flores District partially and simultaneously. This study uses quantitative research methods with the analysis technique used is the semilog linear regression model. To calculate the linear regression equation, the semilog model data must meet the classical assumption test and hypothesis test. This is evidenced by the results of the parametric significant test (t test). The coefficient value of the population variable is 2,322 with tcount<ttable (2,325>2,015), the coefficient value of the education level variable is -14.502 with tcount<ttable (-2.307<2,015), the inflation variable coefficient value is -0.784 with tcount<ttable (-4.781<2,015) and the coefficient value of the unemployment variable is 3.736 with tcount>ttable (3.401>2,015). Then for the F test, the value of Fcount>Ftable(7.642>5.19) is obtained. Based on the results of the calculation of the t test, it can be concluded that the population variable has no effect on the poverty level because the addition of the population is followed by a higher increase of other factors which are indicated to reduce poverty such as increased income in the community, causing a high poverty rate. goverment to finance his education thereby reducing the poverty rate in East Flores Regency. Inflation has a negative effect on the level of poverty, even though there is inflation, the poor are still able to meet their needs and unemployment affects the level of poverty because the unemployed are people who do not have jobs and income so they cannot make ends meet. Based on the F test that population, education level, inflation and unemployment simultaneously affect the level of poverty in East Flores Regency.