Variable Life-adjusted Display Research Articles

The Association Between Prepandemic ICU Performance and Mortality Variation in COVID-19: A Multicenter Cohort Study of 35,619 Critically Ill Patients

During the COVID-19 pandemic, ICUs remained under stress and observed elevated mortality rates and high variations of outcomes. A knowledge gap exists regarding whether an ICU performing best during nonpandemic times would still perform better when under high pressure compared with the least performing ICUs. Does prepandemic ICU performance explain the risk-adjusted mortality variability for critically ill patients with COVID-19? This study examined a cohort of adults with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to 156 ICUs in 35 hospitals from February 16, 2020, through December 31, 2021, in Brazil. We evaluated crude and adjusted in-hospital mortality variability of patients with COVID-19 in the ICU during the pandemic. Association of baseline (prepandemic) ICU performance and in-hospital mortality was examined using a variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) during the pandemic and a multivariable mixed regression model adjusted by clinical characteristics, interaction of performance with the year of admission, and mechanical ventilation at admission. Thirty-five thousand six hundred nineteen patients with confirmed COVID-19 were evaluated. The median age was 52 years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 was 42, and 18%underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. In-hospital mortality was 13%and 54%for those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. Adjusted in-hospital mortality ranged from 3.6%to 63.2%. VLAD in the most efficient ICUs was higher than the overall median in 18%of weeks, whereas VLAD was 62%and 84%in the underachieving and least efficient groups, respectively. The least efficient baseline ICU performance group was associated independently with increased mortality (OR, 2.30; 95%CI, 1.45-3.62) after adjusting for patient characteristics, disease severity, and pandemic surge. ICUs caring for patients with COVID-19 presented substantial variation in risk-adjusted mortality. ICUs with better baseline (prepandemic) performance showed reduced mortality and less variability. Our findings suggest that achieving ICU efficiency by targeting improvement in organizational aspects of ICUs may impact outcomes, and therefore should be a part of the preparedness for future pandemics.

The learning curve of laparoscopic rectal cancer surgery of millennial surgeons: Lessons for a safe implementation in low- and middle-income countries.

This study aimed to analyse the learning curve (LC) in laparoscopic rectal cancer resections of 2 millennial surgeons during the implementation of the first laparoscopic rectal cancer surgery programme in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) cancer centre. All consecutive patients operated by two millennial surgeons for primary rectal adenocarcinoma between January 2018 and March 2020 were included. The LC was analysed for operative duration and conversion to open surgery using both cumulative sum (CUSUM) and/or variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts. Eighty-four patients were included, 45 (53.6%) men with a mean age of 57.3 years. Abdominoperineal resection was performed in 31 (36.9%) cases and resections were extended to other organs in 20 (23.8%) patients. Thirteen patients (15.5%) had conversion to open surgery. Using CUSUM, Learning curve based on conversion was completed at 12 cases for the first surgeon versus 10 cases for the second. While using VLAD and learning curve-CUSUM (LC-CUSUM), the cases needed were 26 vs 24 respectively. The median operative duration was 314 min with a LC completed at cases (17 vs. 26), and (18 vs. 29) using, respectively, standard and LC-CUSUM. This study shows a safe and short LC of millennial surgeons during the implementation of a laparoscopic rectal cancer surgery in an LMIC cancer centre, and the valuable use of modern statistical methods in the prospective assessment of LC safety during surgical training.

Trends in Intensive Care Admissions and Outcomes of Stroke Patients Over 10 Years in Brazil: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected stroke care worldwide. Data from low- and middle-income countries are limited. What was the impact of the pandemic in ICU admissions and outcomes of patients with stroke, in comparison with trends over the last 10 years? Retrospective cohort study including prospectively collected data from 165 ICUs in Brazil between 2011 and 2020. We analyzed clinical characteristics and mortality over a period of 10 years and evaluated the impact of the pandemic on stroke outcomes, using the following approach: analyses of admissions for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes and trends in in-hospital mortality over 10 years; analysis of variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) during 2020; and a mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model. A total of 17,115 stroke admissions were analyzed, from which 13,634 were ischemic and 3,481 were hemorrhagic. In-hospital mortality was lower after ischemic stroke as compared with hemorrhagic (9%vs24%, respectively). Changes in VLAD across epidemiological weeks of 2020 showed that the rise in COVID-19 cases was accompanied by increased mortality, mainly after ischemic stroke. In logistic regression mixed models, mortality was higher in 2020 compared with 2019, 2018, and 2017 in patients with ischemic stroke, namely, in those without altered mental status. In hemorrhagic stroke, the increased mortality in 2020 was observed in patients 50 years of age or younger, as compared with2019. Hospital outcomes of stroke admissions worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, interrupting a trend of improvements in survival rates over 10 years. This effect was more pronounced during the surge of COVID-19 ICU admissions affecting predominantly patients with ischemic stroke without coma, and young patients with hemorrhagic stroke.

Predicting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) 30-days mortality: Using standardised mortality ratio (SMR) as the hospital performance measure

BackgroundA standardised mortality ratio (SMR) is the hospital observed mortality divided by its predicted mortality and has been used as an indicator to monitor hospital performance. ObjectivesThis study developed a model that predicted 30-day mortality for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and compared the SMR among 41 Malaysian public hospitals using statistical process control charts. Methods & resultsData from referral centres and specialist hospitals with cardiology services were analysed. Both referral centres and specialist hospitals had comparable mortality, except for Hospitals A and B, which the study considered outliers. Two-thirds of the remaining hospitals had an SMR of above one (SMR 1.05–1.51), but the indices were still within the expected variations. ConclusionThe SMR coupled with a funnel plot and variable life adjusted display (VLAD) can identify hospitals with potentially higher than expected mortality rates.

The association of the COVID-19 pandemic and short-term outcomes of non-COVID-19 critically ill patients: an observational cohort study in Brazilian ICUs

PurposeTo assess whether intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes for patients not affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsRetrospective cohort study including prospectively collected information of patients admitted to 165 ICUs in a hospital network in Brazil between 2011 and 2020. Association between admission in 2020 and worse hospital outcomes was performed using different techniques, including assessment of changes in illness severity of admitted patients, a variable life-adjusted display of mortality during 2020, a multivariate mixed regression model with admission year as both fixed effect and random slope adjusted for SAPS 3 score, an analysis of trends in performance using standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized resource use (SRU), and perturbation analysis.ResultsA total of 644,644 admissions were considered. After excluding readmissions and patients with COVID-19, 514,219 patients were available for analysis. Non-COVID-19 patients admitted in 2020 had slightly lower age and SAPS 3 score but a higher mortality (6.4%) when compared with previous years (2019: 5.6%; 2018: 6.1%). Variable-adjusted life display (VLAD) in 2020 increased but started to decrease as the number of COVID-19 cases increased; this trend reversed as number of COVID cases reduced but recurred on the second wave. After logistic regression, being admitted in 2020 was associated with higher mortality when compared to previous years from 2016 and 2019. Individual ICUs standardized mortality ratio also increased during 2020 (higher SMR) while resource use remained constant, suggesting worsening performance. A perturbation analysis further confirmed changes in ICU outcomes for non-COVID-19 patients.ConclusionHospital outcomes of non-COVID-19 critically ill patients worsened during the pandemic in 2020, possibly resulting in an increased number of deaths in critically ill non-COVID patients.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-021-06528-6.

Continuous Monitoring of Risk-Adjusted Outcomes: Excess Deaths vs Lives Saved

Reporting of risk-adjusted surgical outcomes is commonly used to compare providers and track changes over time. Preferred graphical methods use the relationship of the observed to the expected values of outcome events, including their ratio (O/E), and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of their differences over time, called Risk-Adjusted CUSUM (RA-CUSUM) or Variable Life Adjusted Display (VLAD). We demonstrate these methods using operative mortality data for 7255 isolated coronary artery bypass graft patients from January 2014 to June 2017. RA-CUSUM and VLAD are excellent techniques to display risk-adjusted outcomes and, unlike O/E, can provide continuous monitoring as performance varies over time.

STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database: 2021 Update on Outcomes, Quality, and Research

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is the most mature and comprehensive cardiac surgery database. It has been the foundation for quality measurement and improvement activities in cardiac surgery, facilitated the generation of accurate risk adjusted performance benchmarks and serves as a platform for novel research. Recent enhancements have added to the database's functionality, ease of use, and value to multiple stakeholders. This report is the sixth in a series of annual reports that provide updated volumes, outcomes, database-related developments, quality improvement initiatives, and research summaries using the Adult Cardiac Surgery Database in the past year.

The impact of introducing ambulance and delivery fees in a rural hospital in Tanzania

BackgroundAccess to health care facilities is a key requirement to enhance safety for mothers and newborns during labour and delivery. Haydom Lutheran Hospital (HLH) is a regional hospital in rural Tanzania with a catchment area of about two million inhabitants. Up to June 2013 ambulance transport and delivery at HLH were free of charge, while a user fee for both services was introduced from January 2014. We aimed to explore the impact of introducing user fees on the population of women giving birth at HLH in order to document potentially unwanted consequences in the period after introduction of fees.MethodsRetrospective analysis of data from a prospective observational study. Data was compared between the period before introduction of fees from February 2010 through June 2013 and the period after from January 2014 through January 2017. Logistic regression modelling was used to construct risk-adjusted variable-life adjusted display (VLAD) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) plots to monitor changes.ResultsA total of 28,601 births were observed. The monthly number of births was reduced by 17.3% during the post-introduction period. Spontaneous vaginal deliveries were registered less frequently with a decrease of about 17/1000 births in non-cephalic presentations. Labour complications and caesarean sections increased with about 80/1000 births. There was a reduction in newborns with birth weight less than 2500 g. The observed changes were stable over time. For most variables, a significant change could be detected after a few weeks.ConclusionAfter the introduction of ambulance and delivery fees, an increase in labour complications and caesarean sections and a decrease in newborns with low birthweight were observed. This might indicate that women delay the decision to seek skilled birth attendance or do not seek help at all, possibly due to financial reasons. Lower rates of births in a safe health care facility like HLH is of great concern, as access to skilled birth attendance is a key requirement in order to further reduce perinatal mortality. Therefore, free delivery care should be a high priority.

The frozen elephant trunk technique in an emergency: THORAFLEX French National Registry offers new insights.

Our goal was to study the immediate outcome after an emergency frozen elephant trunk procedure with a Thoraflex™ Hybrid prosthesis (THP) in patients included in the EPI-Flex national registry and operated on in 21 French centres. All patients operated on in France between April 2016 and April 2019 for acute aortic syndromes and who had an frozen elephant trunk procedure with a THP were included in the study. The main end point was in-hospital mortality. The secondary end point was neuromorbidity, including paraplegia. The evolution of the main end point was monitored using a variable life-adjusted display graph with cumulative sum derivatives in order to stop inclusions in case the observed mortality became out of range compared to an expected mortality between 15% and 20%. Enrolment ended on the scheduled date and included 109 patients. Most cases (54%) were performed at 3 centres, where more than 10 THP each were implanted (10-26). The observed mortality in the large-volume centres (22%) was comparable to that observed in the low-volume centres (20%). The individually risk-adjusted cumulative sum revealed that observed in-hospital mortality was statistically in line with that predicted by the log EuroSCORE. Analysis of the secondary end point revealed 8% cases of paraplegia, all of which appeared after treatment of the thoracic type A aortic dissection. In France, THP for emergency frozen elephant trunk surgery outside high-volume centres did not result in excessive in-hospital deaths. However, a word of caution must be expressed regarding the prevention of medullar ischaemia even in emergency aortic surgery.

Discussion.

Dr Prakash Punjabi (London, United Kingdom). In the United Kingdom, public reporting of results has been going on for several years with the associated issues in terms of surgeon-specific mortality data, and we do that with the use of a variable life-adjusted display plot, which is done for institutions as well as surgeons.

Continuous Monitoring of Coronary Care Mortality Using the Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Score.

The aim was to assess the utility of cumulative sum techniques for continuous monitoring of coronary care outcomes, applied to patients with acute coronary syndrome stratified by the Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. A prospective longitudinal study to assess GRACE score for real-time monitoring of coronary care mortality in a community hospital was conducted between January 2012 and December 2017. An expected-to-observed probability of death chart for individual risk and a variable life-adjusted display were used to monitor the results. A total of 1,255 patients undergoing acute coronary syndrome were included in the analysis. GRACE-based variable life-adjusted plots monitoring in-hospital mortality showed that observed death rates remained in general within the expected 95% confidence limit over time, and these behaviors were similar for ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. In-hospital all-cause mortality was 2.6% for the overall population, and 56% of these cases corresponded to unexpected deaths; conversely, unexpected survival occurred in 5.2% of survivors. Continuous monitoring of coronary care mortality based on cumulative sum charts and the GRACE score demonstrated the occurrence of series of favorable and unfavorable outcomes on a real-time basis. Additionally, plotting the expected-to-observed probability of death for individual cases was useful to individualize unexpected deaths in low-risk patients. Although overall coronary care performance was adequate according to the GRACE score, we found that there is still some room for improvement, since over half of the deaths occurring in low-risk patients were potentially preventable.

Integrating continuous monitoring and evaluation of risk-adjusted outcomes in a cardiac surgical program.

The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) method shows the difference between predicted and observed outcomes over time. Our study aims to implement routine in-house monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality and morbidity following cardiac surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score was calculated for 249 isolated and combined coronary and aortic or mitral valve cases performed during a 6-month period. The nine predicted STS variables were operative mortality, permanent stroke, renal failure (RF), prolonged ventilation, deep sternal wound (DSW) infection, reoperation for any reason, short and long length of stay (LOS), and major morbidity or operative mortality. EuroSCORE II was also calculated for the study population. VLAD plots were generated for each variable indicating whether performance is better or worse than expected on the basis of predicted risk of failure. The mortality plot was fluctuating close to baseline risk. The prolonged ventilation, RF, reoperation, morbidity/mortality, and LOS plots were consistently positive, indicating favorable results. The stroke chart showed an upward trend for most of the period until two incidents toward last month led to a steep descent. The DSW infections plot though, indicated a worse-than-expected performance. The VLAD charts were shared in multidisciplinary meetings and clinicians were able to confront the performance with the population-specific expectancies and respond to adverse trends with further actions. Graphical tool monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality and morbidity following cardiac surgery is feasible and allows detection of underperformance and implementation of changes in clinical practice.

Frequent refresher training on newborn resuscitation and potential impact on perinatal outcome over time in a rural Tanzanian hospital: an observational study

ObjectivesGlobally, perinatal mortality remains high, especially in sub-Saharan countries, mainly because of inadequate obstetric and newborn care. Helping Babies Breathe (HBB) resuscitation training as part of a continuous quality improvement...

Abstract 194: Real-time Outcomes Analysis Dashboard: ROAD Map

Background: Surveillance of risk-adjusted pediatric cardiac surgery outcomes has moved beyond mortality to complications. We report a novel dashboard that provides for real-time graphic presentation of risk-adjusted complications to ensure that program performance is maintained and to identify areas for improvement. Methods and Materials: This was a single center study, performed at a medium volume program after IRB approval. Data were collected on consecutive patients over a one-year period (Oct 4, 2016- Oct 3, 2017) coincident with the restart of a pediatric cardiac surgical program. Mortality data are plotted using Variable Life Adjusted Display (VLAD). Complications are collected for each patient prospectively using STS standard definitions and CUSUM and O-E plots generated. Complication burden (accounting for both frequency and severity of complications) was calculated for each STAT category and compared to historic data. Results: Mortality rate for the cohort was 3.6% (6/164, Fig 1, panel A). In 94 patients, there were no complications (57.3%). Thirty-five patients had 1 complication and 35 had < 2 complications. Complications resulting in mortality (failure-to-rescue rate) is 8.7%. Most common complications were pulmonary (40, 23.4%) arrhythmia (27, 15.8%), and neurologic (28, 16.4%). High risk complications occurred infrequently including acute renal failure (n=14), bleeding requiring reoperation (n=4), unexpected cardiac arrest (n=3), low cardiac output (n=11), mechanical circulatory support (n=7), neurologic deficit (n=9), and sepsis (n=1) (Fig 1, panel B). Four outlier patients account for spikes in the O-E CUSUM plot (Fig 1, panel C). Complication severity and frequency escalate with increasing STAT category (Fig 1, panel D). Conclusion: A continuously updated dashboard permits real-time adverse outcome reporting, potentially allowing earliest identification of areas of concern or focus. Proof of the value of this approach will require replication in additional centers of various size.

Variable life adjusted display methodology for continuous performance monitoring of carotid endarterectomy.

Introduction The aim of this study was to use variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) methodology to monitor performance of six vascular surgeons undertaking carotid endarterectomy in a single institution. Materials and methods This was a prospective study with continuous analysis. A risk score model to predict 30-day stroke or death for individual patients was developed from data collected from 839 patients from 1992 to 1999. The model was used to monitor performance of six surgeons from 2000 to 2009. Individual risk factors and 30-day outcomes were analysed and VLAD plots were created for the whole unit and for each surgeon. Results Among the 941 carotid endarterectomies in the performance analysis, 28 adverse events were recorded, giving an overall stroke or death rate of 3.06%. The risk model predicted there would be 33 adverse events. There was no statistical difference between the predicted and the observed adverse events (P>0.2, χ2 value 1.25, 4 degrees of freedom). The VLAD plot for the whole unit shows an overall net gain in operative performance, although this could have been chance variation. The individual VLAD plot showed that surgeons 1, 2, 3 and 6 to have an overall net gain in the number of successful operations. The changes observed between the surgeons was not significant (P>0.05) suggesting chance variation only. Conclusions Performance of carotid endarterectomy can be continuously assessed using VLAD methodology for units and individual surgeons. Early identification and correction of performance variation could facilitate improved quality of care.

Use of an intraoperative checklist to decrease the incidence of re-exploration for postoperative bleeding after cardiac surgery.

We have implemented an intraoperative checklist aiming to reduce the incidence of re-exploration for bleeding after cardiac surgery. The present report addresses the results of adopting such a checklist regarding the incidence of postoperative bleeding. The checklist was implemented by presenting it in several staff meetings of the Catharina Heart Center. Copies of the checklist were presented in every operating room. Data were collected by the Catharina Heart Center, aligned with the 'Meetbaar Beter' data manual and validated by 'Meetbaar Beter' through their data quality system. The incidence of re-exploration for bleeding was analysed in a variable life-adjusted display curve. The patient population operated after the implementation of the checklist was compared with a recent historical population before its implementation. From January 2013 through April 2016, 4817 cardiac surgical procedures were performed in our institution. Before May 2015, 3210 procedures were performed (Group 1), complicated by 112 re-exploration for bleeding (3.5%). The 'reoperation for bleeding checklist' was implemented on 1 May 2015. After this date, the number of re-explorations for bleeding decreased to 29 (1.8%) of the 1607 cardiac surgical procedures (Group 2) (P < 0.05). An intraoperative checklist is feasible to implement, low cost, quick and simple to measure with a significant reduction in the incidence of re-exploration for bleeding. This report shows an example of the positive effects of transparency in publishing outcomes' data in cardiac surgery.

A new VLAD‐based control chart for detecting surgical outcomes

The timely detection of surgical quality changes is becoming increasingly important. Variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) has a wide range of applications in the medical field. However, the control limits of VLAD are not defined; thus, the charts alone cannot reveal whether surgical quality underwent a significant change. This paper proposes a new risk-adjusted exponentially weighted moving average VLAD (RAEV) chart and provides a control limit that can be used with the VLAD. The RAEV chart is designed to detect shifts in the odds ratios of patients' surgical risk. Simulation is used to demonstrate that the proposed RAEV chart efficiently detects shifts of various magnitudes, and an example is provided to illustrate the implementation of the RAEV control limits in a VLAD chart. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Monitoring the quality of cardiac surgery based on three or more surgical outcomes using a new variable life-adjusted display.

The traditional variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is a graphical display of the difference between expected and actual cumulative deaths. The VLAD assumes binary outcomes: death within 30 days of an operation or survival beyond 30 days. Full recovery and bedridden for life, for example, are considered the same outcome. This binary classification results in a great loss of information. Although there are many grades of survival, the binary outcomes are commonly used to classify surgical outcomes. Consequently, quality monitoring procedures are developed based on binary outcomes. With a more refined set of outcomes, the sensitivities of these procedures can be expected to improve. A likelihood ratio method is used to define a penalty-reward scoring system based on three or more surgical outcomes for the new VLAD. The likelihood ratio statistic W is based on testing the odds ratio of cumulative probabilities of recovery R. Two methods of implementing the new VLAD are proposed. We accumulate the statistic W-W¯R to estimate the performance of a surgeon where W¯R is the average of the W's of a historical data set. The accumulated sum will be zero based on the historical data set. This ensures that if a new VLAD is plotted for a future surgeon of performance similar to this average performance, the plot will exhibit a horizontal trend. For illustration of the new VLAD, we consider 3-outcome surgical results: death within 30 days, partial and full recoveries. In our first illustration, we show the effect of partial recoveries on surgical results of a surgeon. In our second and third illustrations, the surgical results of two surgeons are compared using both the traditional VLAD based on binary-outcome data and the new VLAD based on 3-outcome data. A reversal in relative performance of surgeons is observed when the new VLAD is used. In our final illustration, we display the surgical results of four surgeons using the new VLAD based completely on 3-outcome data. Full recovery and bedridden for life are two completely different outcomes. There is a great loss of information when different grades of 'successful' operations are naively classified as survival. When surgical outcomes are classified more accurately into more than two categories, the resulting new VLAD will reveal more accurately and fairly the surgical results.

Monitoring Surgical Performance: Current Models and Limitations

Purpose: The article aims to evaluate methods currently used to monitor surgical performance. Different model’s advantages and limitations are analyzed to possibly identify the best model of assessment. Design/Methodology/Approach: An extensive online research took place, looking in particular for articles containing terms such as ‘surgical performance monitoring’, ‘forced ranking’, and ‘surgical outcomes’. The search was independently carried out by three medical doctors. References were screened to find more articles on this particular topic. A conceptual review was then performed. Findings: Among the current available methods, the RiskAdjusted Bernoulli Cumulative Sum (RA-CUSUM), set on a real time prospective monitoring, is preferred and might improve surgical outcomes. This is especially true when the RA-CUSUM is compared with the Variable Life Adjusted Display (VLAD) retrospective model, although VLAD is easier to interpret and it is more frequently used by surgeons. Practical Implications: Applying a standardized surgical performance assessment model identifies and manages practice variations in the same institution and among hospitals. Originality/value: RA-CUSUM applied to surgical practice can be an effective tool to determine variations in performance. You can submit your Manuscripts at: https://symbiosisonlinepublishing.com/submitManuscript.php

Debate: what is the best method to monitor surgical performance?

BackgroundThere is considerable recent interest in the monitoring of individual surgeon or hospital surgical outcomes. If one aggregates data over time and assesses performance with a funnel plot, then the detection of any process deterioration or improvement could be delayed. The variable life adjusted display (VLAD) is widely used for monitoring on a case-by-case basis, but we show that use of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart leads to much better performance.DiscussionWe use simulation to illustrate that the RA-CUSUM chart has better performance than the VLAD in detecting changes in the rates of adverse events.SummaryWe recommend the RA-CUSUM approach over the VLAD approach for monitoring surgical performance. If the VLAD is used, we recommend running the RA-CUSUM chart in the background to generate signals that the process performance has changed.