Exchange Rate Variability Research Articles

The Impact of Some Macro Variables on the Performance of the Iraq Stock Exchange for the Period 2004-2022

The research aimed to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, money supply) on the performance of the Iraqi Stock Exchange represented by the general market index, using the (ARDL) model. The study concluded that the performance of the Iraqi Stock Exchange witnessed fluctuations, due to the instability of the macro variables, and according to the (ARDL) model, in the short term, interest rates (I) and money supply (M) were negative in their impact on the market index (ISX), and the exchange rate (E) and inflation (N) had a positive role in the market. In the long term, the exchange rate (E), inflation (N), and money supply (M) had a positive role in the market. Among the recommendations is that interest rates should be given attention because they are a major variable in influencing financial markets, and this is what most economic schools have reached. When increasing the money supply, the size of investment in the financial markets must be taken into account, meaning that the increase must be directed towards investment and not just

An Investigation of Exchange Rate Volatility using Econometric Model: Evidence from Cambodia

The examination of foreign exchange dynamics was performed utilizing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which integrates both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving Average (MA) components. The analysis focused on the monthly exchange rate between the Khmer Riel and the US dollar, spanning from December 2018 to September 2024, to assess the variations in exchange rates. According to the results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the foreign exchange data series was determined to be integrated of order zero, or I(0). The model identified as the most appropriate, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), was the ARIMA(3,0,3) model, which indicated the optimal lag lengths for this analysis. The reaction of the foreign exchange market to the disturbance shock revealed a cyclical behavior and demonstrated a downward trajectory over the 30-period forecast horizon. Importantly, the impulse response function (IRF) stayed within the 95% confidence interval, signifying that the response to the shock was statistically significant and remained within a tolerable level of uncertainty. This observation implies that the predictions generated by the model can be regarded as trustworthy.

Exchange Rate, Dividend Policy, and Capital Structure: Their Impact on Stock Returns in Jakarta Islamic Index Companies (2019–2023)

This study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rates, dividend policies, and capital structures on stock returns of JII-listed companies from 2019-2023, considering unique characteristics and adherence to Sharia principles. This study uses a qualitative method, employing purposive sampling techniques to determine the sample and then analyzing it using multiple linear regression with the SPSS 25.0 application. The sample in this study consists of 23 companies listed on the IDX that are included in the JII index and are non-bank companies. The results of this study found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock return. Dividend policy, measured using the dividend payout ratio (DPR), has a negative and significant effect on stock return. Capital structure, measured using the debt to equity ratio (DER), has a negative and significant effect on stock return. Meanwhile, simultaneously, the variables of exchange rates, dividend policies, and capital structures have a significant effect on stock return. The findings provide valuable insights for investors and companies seeking to make informed investment decisions and develop effective financial strategies aligned with Sharia principles. The study contributes academically to sharia-based finance literature and offers practical implications for market participants in the Islamic capital market.

Analysis of Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesian Coal Exports

Indonesia is one of the largest countries that play a role in world coal exports. Coal is one of the non-oil and gas or mining export commodities that has an important role in the economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the competitiveness and factors that influence Indonesia’s coal exports to the five main destination countries in 2012-2022. The data used is panel data, which is a combination of time series and cross-section data obtained through the Central Bureau of Statistics, BP Statistical Review Of World Energy, UN Comtrade, World Bank, as well as related articles and journals. To analyze the comparative competitiveness of Indonesian coal commodities in the five destination countries, the RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) method is used. This study uses a non-participant observation data collection method. The data analysis technique in this study is panel data regression analysis using Eviews 12 software. The results of this study indicate that the competitiveness and economic distance variables have a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesia’s coal exports to the five destination countries, while the exchange rate and GDP variables have a negative and insignificant effect on Indonesia’s coal exports to the five destination countries.

Turkey’s Climate Change Policies and Regulations

This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation within dynamic structure, focusing on the impact of exchange rate changes on consumer prices (CPI) in Türkiye. The theoretical and empirical analysis builds on existing frameworks, considering how central banks’ reactions to exchange rate movements play a crucial role in shaping inflationary dynamics. The study uses the ARDL model to analyse the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation, focusing on the interaction between the CPI and the nominal exchange rate (NEX). For these goals, we employed monthly data over the January of 2000 and August of 2024. The analysis is based on two baseline models: the first examines how changes in the exchange rate directly impact the CPI, while the second assesses the rate of change in inflation due to exchange rate variations. Stationarity of the data is ensured through unit root testing, which confirms the appropriateness of using the ARDL model. The results reveal that exchange rate movements significantly affect CPI, with a 1% increase in the exchange rate leading to a 1.1625% increase in th e CPI in the long run, as evidenced by a p-value of 0.00. Additionally, in the short term, a 1% increase in the exchange rate results in a 0.1164% rise in the CPI, indicating a persistent effect on prices. The error correction term further supports the existence of a significant relationship between the CPI and the exchange rate in both short and long-term dynamics. Based on model 2, exchange rate changes have a significant effect on inflation in the long-term relationship. In particular, it has been shown that exchange rate increases can lead to long-term increases in inflation.

The Influence Factors on Stock Returns of Real Estate and Property Companies Listed in Bei in 2010 - 2014

This research seeks to examine and offer insights into the factors that impact stock returns of real estate and property companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The examined factors include DER, EPS, NPM, PBV, inflation, exchange rate, SBI, and GDP. The research focuses on real estate and property companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2010-2014 period, involving a total of 38 companies. The study analyzes the impact of these variables DER, EPS, NPM, PBV, inflation, exchange rate, SBI, and GDP on the stock returns of these companies. Data were collected from sources such as Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The findings reveal that DER, EPS, NPM, and PBV significantly influence stock returns, whereas inflation, exchange rate, SBI, and GDP do not have a significant impact on the stock returns of real estate and property companies.

The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuation on Exchange Rate Variation: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of oil price fluctuations on exchange rate variations, particularly for Malaysia and Thailand. The study utilizes monthly observation data from 1994 to 2021 and uses structural breaks, cointegration relationships, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) estimates. Both countries had distinct long- and short-term relationships, but there was also an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and multilateral exchange rates revealed by the study. The asymmetric and non-asymmetric causality relationship for both countries indicate a unidirectional non-asymmetric causality between the oil price and the exchange rate variation. The empirical findings will be of great assistance to policymakers in evaluating global oil price fluctuations as a crucial indicator for monitoring and stabilizing currencies as a long-term monetary policy strategy.

THE INFLUENCE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, IMPORTS AND THE EXCHANGE RATE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN INDONESIA

This research aims to analyze the influence of gross domestic product, imports and the exchange rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia in the short and long term. This research uses secondary data obtained from World Bank publications for 32 years (1991-2022). To achieve the results of this research, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dynamic model analysis was used using the Eviews program. The results of this research in the short term show that the gross domestic product variable has a positive and insignificant effect, imports have a negative and insignificant effect, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. In the long term, the results of this research show that the gross domestic product and exchange rate variables have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, while imports have a negative and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia.

PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN VAKSINASI COVID-19 DAN INFORMASI KEBIJAKAN TAPERING OFF TERHADAP IHSG TAHUN 2021-2022

Currently, there is a Covid-19 pandemic that is spreading throughout the world, including Indonesia. Then the government carried out a Covid-19 Vaccination policy to overcome this problem. Along with the implementation of the Covid-19 Vaccination policy, there was information tapering off information policy. What has an impact on the financial system and the real sector is the depreciation of the exchange rate and the high value of inflation. This resulted in capital outflows which had an impact on the ICI movement. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of covid-19 vaccination, exchange rates, and inflation on ICI in 2021-2022. Research model used VECM (Vector Error Corection Model) with the help of research tools E-Views. The results obtained from this study show that the Covid-19 Vaccination Policy has an influence on the ICI and based on the IRF analysis of trends due to shock in the peiode has a positive influence. Information on tapering off policy through exchange rate and inflation variables has an influence on the ICI and based on IRF analysis the trend due to shock in that period has a negative influence.

An Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomics Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The prime objective of any country in the world is to achieve a steady growth in each macroeconomic variable such as exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, price stability, balance of payment, unemployment rate, foreign direct investment etc. The study the examines the long-run asymmetric effect of macroeconomics variables on economic growth in Nigeria using quartly data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. The study employed nonlinear ARDL model. The Zivot-Andrew unit root test indicates that real gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rate and crude oil price are integrated of order one in other words are stationary at first difference while inflation rate is integrated of order zero in other word it is stationary at level. The results of nonlinear ARDL model show that interest rate has a positive effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria. The variable real exchange rate has a negative effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria, inflation rate has a negative effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria and crude oil price has a positive effect on the real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Therefore, the current study concludes that there exist an asymmetry effect in the long-run of macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and crude oil price in the Nigerian economy. The study recommends that Nigerian government should endeavor to bring macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and crude oil price under control in order to boast the economic growth by managing interest rate to its lowest level, stabilizing forex market in a way that the Nigerian currency will not depreciate and increase the production of crude oil in order to the demand.

Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate dan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Asing Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah Indonesia

This researchs aims to analyze the ef ect of Inflation, BI Rate and Foreign Exchange Rates on the Profitability (ROA) of Bank Syariah Indonesia in. The sample in this study was taken based on the monthly financial statements of Bank Syariah Indonesia. In this study using quantitative methods and tested based on normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test and autocorrelation test, it can be stated that the research data meet the classical assumptions. The results of the study partially show that the inflation variable and the BI Rate have a positive but not significant ef ect on profitability at Bank Syariah Indonesia. Meanwhile, the foreign currency exchange rate variable has a positive and significant ef ect on profitability at Syariah Mandiri banks. This coef icient of determination states that the magnitude of the influence of inflation, BI Rate and foreign currency exchange rates is 37.0% and the rest is influenced by other variables of 63, 0% which is not in the regression model of this study.

ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MONETER INDONESIA DAN INDEKS SAHAM NEGARA LAIN TERHADAP IHSG

This study aims to determine the effect of Indonesian monetary variables and other countries' stock indices on the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI). The data used is monthly time series data from January 2020 to December 2023. The method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method which is determined from the results of the stationarity test, lag determination, cointegration test. The independent variables used include monetary variables (inflation and exchange rates) and stock indices of other countries (nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average /DJIA). The dependent variable used is the JCI. The results showed that all monetary variables (inflation and exchange rates) had no influence in the short term, while in the long term both monetary variables had a negative effect on the JCI. Meanwhile, other countries' stock index variables, namely the DJIA, negatively affect the JCI both in the short and long term. Nikkei 225 has a positive short term effect on JCI, while in the long term nikkei 225 has no effect on JCI.

Regulating IL-2 Immune Signaling Function Via A Core Allosteric Structural Network.

Human interleukin-2 (IL-2) is a crucial cytokine for T cell regulation, with therapeutic potential in cancer and autoimmune diseases. However, IL-2's pleiotropic effects across different immune cell types often lead to toxicity and limited efficacy. Previous efforts to enhance IL-2's therapeutic profile have focused on modifying its receptor binding sites. Yet, the underlying dynamics and intramolecular networks contributing to IL-2 receptor recognition remain unexplored. This study presents a detailed characterization of IL-2 dynamics compared to two engineered IL-2 mutants, "superkines" S15 and S1, which exhibit biased signaling towards effector T cells. Using NMR spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations, we demonstrate significant variations in core dynamic pathways and conformational exchange rates across these three IL-2 variants. We identify distinct allosteric networks and minor state conformations in the superkines, despite their structural similarity to wild-type IL-2. Furthermore, we rationally design a mutation (L56A) in the S1 superkine's core network, which partially reverts its dynamics, receptor binding affinity, and T cell signaling behavior towards that of wild-type IL-2. Our results reveal that IL-2 superkine core dynamics play a critical role in their enhanced receptor binding and function, suggesting that modulating IL-2 dynamics and core allostery represents an untapped approach for designing immunotherapies with improved immune cell selectivity profiles.

THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII): AN ANALYSIS FROM 2010 TO 2023

Introduction: Sharia investment activities become one of the most promising economic activities. This is proven from the resilience of sharia capital market activities, which have remained strong despite the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic. This research examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Method: This research used a quantitative approach with time series data for the period of January 2010 to December 2023. Specifically, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method was employed to examine both the long-term and short-term effects, as well as the shocks in macroeconomic variables on Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Results: This study indicate that in the long term, the exchange rate, IHSG and WGP variables have a significant positive impact on JII, while the inflation variable has a significant negative impact. Conversely, the WGP variable shows an insignificant negative impact on stock movements rates within JII. In the short term, however, the variables of inflation, exchange rate, IHSG, COP (Crude Oil Prices) and WGP do not have any impact on the movement of shares listed on JII. Conclusions and Suggestions: The findings of this research encourage investors to pay more attention to the movement of macroeconomic rate variables and information from companies related to financial reports before making a decision to invest their capital. The inflation, exchange rate, and IHSG variables can be utilized as references in decision making because better movement of the IHSG and exchange rate and stable inflation are able to provide optimal returns for investors.

Returns, interest rate variations and changes in foreign exchange rates in Asia

The aim of the paper was to resolve the contradictory findings on exchange rate variability and stock returns on the basis of comparative evidence from Asian markets with interest rate variation serving as a moderator of the observed effect. The study applied the quantile and Bayesian Vector Autoregression technique from 2000 to 2023. The findings suggest that currency rate volatility and interest rate risk are two market risk variables that have a large and negligible direct influence on stock return, particularly over the long term. The results demonstrated a significant positive relationship between variations in exchange rates and return on assets, the latter being established at the medium to higher quantile of exchange rates. Return on assets reacts favourably to shocks related to interest rates and exchange rates. This may suggest that stock markets with substantial international operations are robust enough to withstand the volatility and risk brought on by currency rate swings. The results indicate that interest rate variations, which are favourable to the market, have a positive effect on returns. It implies that banks are motivated to extend credit to more people. When these factors move in same direction, there is a low sentiment in the market, a low risk and positive investor behaviour. Additional quantification of the magnitude and direction of volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock returns show how these linkages are dynamic and vary depending on nations, time periods and market. The interdependence of exchange rate changes and stock returns within the larger financial ecosystem is highlighted by the volatility spillover that influences economic policy decisions, risk management techniques and investment strategies. The study concluded that during the analysed periods in Asia, the market risk variables taken into account in this model are important and substantial predictors of return on assets

The Role of Spring-Neap Phasing of Intermittent Lateral Exchange in the Ecosystem of a Channel-Shoal Estuary

Lateral variability is a fundamental feature of channel-shoal estuaries, and exchanges between the channel and shoal can play an important role in the dynamics of the ecosystem in each region. This lateral exchange of biomass interacts with vertical structure and variability, particularly in the channel, to define algal biomass accumulation in the estuary. In this paper, we investigate how time-variable lateral exchange affects phytoplankton dynamics with a biophysical model that links two water columns via intermittent exchange. We find that time variability in the exchange influences biomass by increasing concentrations in the shoals and decreasing them in the channel when the time variability happens on a timescale greater than the timescales of biological processes, and the strength of the effect increases with the period of the intermittency. At timescales of variability comparable to the spring-neap cycle, however, the interplay between lateral exchange and the ecosystem response is complicated by the fortnightly development of stratification in the channel and the role that channel-shoal interaction plays in defining that stratification. As a result, for lateral exchange variability with periods of 7 and 14 days, the influence of the shoal ecosystem on the channel ecosystem is sensitive to the phasing of exchange relative to the spring-neap cycle, due to the fact that neap tide exchanges can create stratification events that are larger in magnitude and duration than would occur in the absence of lateral exchange, causing the channel to transition into net positive growth conditions. We conclude that lateral exchange influences the estuarine ecosystem both directly, through the exchange of biomass between shoals with net positive growth and adjoining channels and indirectly through its role in defining stratification events that allow the channel itself to have net positive growth.

Micrometeorological drivers affecting the variability of CO2 uptake in the Himalayan Oak and Pine dominated ecosystems: An assessment of causal relationships

Micrometeorological variability significantly impacts the structures, functions, and dynamics of ecosystems. However, the assessment of feedback and causal relationships among microclimatic drivers and various ecosystems in the Himalayan region is rarely evaluated. Here, we studied the micrometeorological drivers controlling the variability in the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of Himalayan Oak (Banj-Oak/Quercus leucotrichophora) and Pine (Chir-Pine/Pinus roxburghii) dominated ecosystems, as NEE is an indicator of ecosystem functioning. We used half-hourly eddy covariance flux data of CO2 fluxes from two sites established over Pine and Oak dominated ecosystems in Uttarakhand, India. We conducted the analysis with the information theory-based Temporal Information Partitioning Networks (TIPNets) approach to generate weekly process networks. TIPNets represent directed lag-structured causal graphs to identify the causal relationships and capture the temporal association among the variables. Our analysis aimed to capture fluctuations in variables with up to 6 h of memory. Based on the data availability, we generated the weekly networks at both the sites for the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons of 2016 and 2017. In both ecosystems, the sub-daily scale variations among the micrometeorological variables are responsible for the fluctuations in NEE. The Pine ecosystem is found to be more sensitive to changes in air temperature (TA) and uptakes more CO2 as compared to the Oak ecosystem throughout the study period. The transfer entropy links show that the NEE of the Oak ecosystem is moisture-driven (precipitation and relative humidity), while the Pine ecosystem is heat-driven (TA and net solar radiation) in both seasons. The influence of precipitation is not observed within a short memory of 6 h in the Pine ecosystem. This is because lesser fine roots take time to show the precipitation signature on NEE through infiltration, soil moisture, and root water uptake, compared to Oak. However, the impacts of moisture stress are evident in the network structure of both ecosystems, with more causal links observed in the network during dry periods compared to wet periods.

Extreme wind events responsible for an outsized role in shelf-basin exchange around the southern tip of Greenland.

The coastal circulation around Southern Greenland transports fresh, buoyant water masses from the Arctic and Greenland Ice Sheet near regions of convection, sinking, and deep-water formation in the Irminger and Labrador Seas. Here, we track the pathways and fate of these fresh water masses by initializing synthetic particles in the East Greenland Coastal Current on the Southeast Greenland shelf and running them through altimetry-derived surface currents from 1993 to 2021. We report that the majority of waters (83%) remain on the shelf around the southern tip of Greenland. Variability in the shelf-basin exchange of the remaining particles closely follows the number of tip jet wind events on seasonal and interannual timescales. The probability of a particle exiting the shelf increases almost fivefold during a tip jet event. These results indicate that the number of tip jets is a close proxy of the shelf-basin exchange around Southern Greenland.

Determinants of Export Volume Oil Indonesian Raw Materials to Main Destination Countries

Crude Oil, which has long been a mainstay sector in Indonesia's exports, contributes greatly to state revenue, thus driving the pace of national economic growth. In the context of the Indonesian economy, the crude oil industry plays an indispensable role, especially over the past few decades. This study aims to identify the factors that affect the volume of Indonesia's crude oil exports to nine main destination countries—including Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, the United States, and Taiwan—in the period from 2003 to 2022. Some of the variables analyzed include exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices. Through the regression analysis method of panel data, the results of this study indicate that simultaneously, exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices have a significant effect on Indonesia's crude oil exports to these countries. Separately, the world exchange rate and oil price variables had a significant negative influence on Indonesia's crude oil export volume, while the foreign investment and production variables showed a positive and significant influence on export volume during the 2003-2022 research period.

Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara Asean-10: Model Data Panel

This study aims to analyze the effect of investment, exchange rate, labor, and human development index (HDI) variables on economic growth in ASEAN countries. This study uses panel data regression analysis with time series data from 2011-2022 and cross-section data from 10 ASEAN countries. The results showed that the Fixed Effect Model was selected as the best model in the study. The results of the analysis concluded that investment and labor have a positive and significant effect on economic growth and HDI has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not have a significant effect on economic growth. In other words, increasing investment and labor will increase economic growth, conversely if the HDI increases it will not increase economic growth. In addition, the exchange rate has no effect on economic growth in 10 ASEAN countries.