Portfolio Value Research Articles

Methodological Aspects of Valuation of Credit Institutions under External Uncertainty

The article is devoted to the research of the issues of commercial bank business valuation under the conditions of uncertainty. The study aims to develop a model for forecasting the value of total assets and loan portfolio of a commercial bank within the framework of value estimation under external uncertainty. The relevance of the paper is that in the context of the COVID‑19 pandemic, military actions and sanctions pressure it is difficult to justify the market value of credit institutions due to the difficulties in implementing the methodology of assessment of banks whose business is associated with increased risks. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a regression model that allows forecasting the value of total assets and the loan portfolio of a commercial bank as key value factors under external uncertainty. The authors used the following methods of scientific research: deduction, induction, correlation and regression analysis, and logical method. The key factors of business valuation of Russian banks are systematized. The authors propose to build a model within the framework of the income approach, based on the forecast of external cost factors: total assets and loan portfolio of the banking sector. A leading indicator that affects total assets and loan portfolio is justified. A model has been developed which makes it possible to forecast the total assets and loan portfolios of the banking sector and find the required value of the assets of the bank being evaluated through the market share. The model is tested on the example of the valuation of Sber. The authors conclude that the model developed by the authors makes it possible to build scenarios for future cash flows and quantify the valuation interval of a commercial bank. The prospect of further research is related to evaluating the influence of internal financial and non-financial factors in the context of the valuation management system. The article will be useful to practicing appraisers in business valuation and investors.

Analisis Non-Hierarchical Clustering dan Lagrangean Multiplier dalam Penentuan Bobot Portofolio Optimal Saham Perbankan Indonesia

Investment banking is a financial entity. Investment banking is an important financial intermediary that is indispensable in the capital market. The increasing interest of investors in investing in the stock market has increased because the stock market offers flexible and transparent money options opportunities for risk sharing with the potential for positive returns. Every investor wants a high rate of return with a low risk value. Risk cannot be eliminated, but can be minimized. Clustering means finding and defining a number of clusters (or groups) in a data set. Grouping is done based on numerical equations or distances (dissimilarities). The k-means algorithm is a grouping algorithm based on distance. In the k-means algorithm, the smaller the distance between the samples, the higher the similarity. The k-medoids algorithm is used to find medoids in a cluster which is the center point of the cluster. The return value or commonly known as the return on the funds invested in the investment. Portfolio is a collection of several investment instruments formed with the aim of meeting investment goals. obtained 5 clusters using k-means algorithm with total of wss 23,606. The optimal portfolio weight percentage for each stock formed is BMAS (9.11%%), BANK (32.78%), ARTO (28.84%), BBYB (16.72%), and BBHI (12.54%). Furthermore, from the results of the optimization calculations that have been obtained,the expected return portfolio value is and the portfolio variance is . Investing Rp.1.000.000.000,-, then the expected return value that will be obtained when choosing this portfolio is Rp.11.094.300,-.

Gender effects of project assessment: Evidence from a market simulation

We investigate how males and females perform as entrepreneurs and traders using information on the trading activities of students participating in a business game in two university courses. In one course, students create entrepreneurial ventures that they pitch to their peers. These students are issued securities of all the ventures and trade in a simulated market based on information revealed in the classroom pitches. In the second course, students trade these ventures in a separate simulated market but do not see pitches and trade based on anonymized written information about the ventures. We measure student performance as entrepreneurs by the traded prices of their proposed ventures in the online market and performance as traders by the value of their closing portfolios. In the course where traders observe the sales pitches of the entrepreneurial teams, we find that both male and female traders buy and sell at lower prices when the female share of the venture team increases. Females buy at higher prices and sell at lower prices than males and end up with lower portfolio values than males. None of these results obtain in the course where trading is based on the same information delivered in written and anonymized form and the gender composition of the venture teams is not known. These findings provide insight on how the assessment and performance of tomorrow's business leaders is affected by environments involving direct sales pitches.

TESTING THE APPLICABILITY OF THE CAPM MODEL USING SELECTED SHARES LISTED ON THE BELGRADE STOCK EXCHANGE

One of the basic types of portfolio valuation as well as valuation of individual company shares is the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing) model, which uses a well-known measure of systemic risk in its analysis, which is beta. The CAPM model in its analysis uses the link between the systemic risk measure (beta) and the expected market return. Guided by this model, the analysis of monthly returns of selected shares on the Belgrade Stock Exchange in the period from 2011 to 2021 was performed in this research. In the research, the beta coefficient of selected shares was calculated with the help of the covariance of market return and stock return. The results and their statistical value were confirmed by the linear regression test. The rest of the research tests the applicability of the CAPM model to selected actions and in the same way, the SML (security market line) is devised, which is a graphical representation of the model. The research indicated that the basic assumptions of the CAPM model are not applicable as a predictor of future expected returns of selected shares on the Belgrade Stock Exchange due to various other elements that affect price movements and returns of selected shares not covered by the model.

A new approach to portfolio selection based on forecasting

In this paper we analyze the portfolio selection problem from a novel perspective based on the analysis and prediction of the time series corresponding to the portfolio’s value. Namely, we define the value of a particular portfolio at the time of its acquisition. Using the time series of historical prices of the different financial assets, we calculate backward the value that said portfolio would have had in past time periods. A damped trend model is then used to analyze this time series and to predict the future values of the portfolio, providing estimates of the mean and variance for different forecasting horizons. These measures are used to formulate the portfolio selection problem, which is solved using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. To show the performance of this procedure, we use a data set of asset prices from the New York Stock Market.

A Decision Support System for Project Portfolio Management in Construction Companies

Project portfolio management requires a systematic process that comprises assessment of portfolio risk and expected profitability, as well as strategic fit of individual projects with company objectives. After a needs analysis based on literature findings and surveys with experts, in this study, a process model and a tool, COPPMAN (COnstruction Project Portfolio MANagement), were developed to support project portfolio decisions in construction companies. COPPMAN was developed in collaboration with construction professionals. Different from previous studies, it incorporates a portfolio risk and strategic fit assessment model considering project dependencies and integrates knowledge of previous, on-going and potential projects to estimate value of alternative project portfolios. COPPMAN was implemented in a construction company and evaluated as a useful tool due to its features such as knowledge integration, forecasting of portfolio profitability and recommendation of strategies as well as its visualization features. Research design and findings can be used for development of similar tools in other project-based industries.

Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?

The academic value factor (long cheap stocks, short expensive stocks) earns higher returns among small-cap stocks. When viewed through the lens of a long-only value investor, however, size is a less important factor. For example, equally weighted large-cap value portfolios have historically earned similar returns as small-cap value portfolios. This finding is robust to different value measures and markets. Despite realized returns being statistically similar, the liquidity profile of the two value portfolios is dramatically different: Equally weighted large-cap value portfolios have approximately 11 times (or more) the liquidity of small-cap value portfolios.

Practical Applications of Option-Enhanced Tax-Smart Portfolio Value

Since the origination of the investment discipline, tax implications have always been secondary to investment decisions. Investment education resources and those for training investment professionals do not emphasize after-tax performance. Another idea favored by the investment community is that when investing, a more accurate measure of performance is not how much one makes but how much one keeps. These two ideas conflict since potential tax obligations from selling securities can significantly impact the actual value of investments. In <b><i>Option-Enhanced Tax-Smart Portfolio Value</i></b>, from the April 2022 issue of <b><i>The Journal of Portfolio Management</i></b> and other articles about the impact of taxes on investments, author <b>Andrew Kalotay</b> of <b>Kalotay Advisors</b> contends that there must be a change in how taxable securities are valued and how the performance of taxable investment portfolios is derived. “To discuss how you can improve after-tax performance intelligently, you must develop a way to measure it,” says Kalotay. This philosophical change in investment valuation would facilitate tax-loss harvesting decisions, enhance investment performance measurement, and provide a better way to compare the performance of fund managers and advisers. Kalotay believes that “there should be much more attention by academics and practitioners on the critical topic of after-tax performance.”

The external effect of institutional cross-ownership on excessive managerial perks

Based on the objective of portfolio value maximization, this paper focuses on the external effect of institutional cross-ownership. Empirical results show that institutional cross-ownership is negatively related to excessive managerial perks and the negative relation is more prominent for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or central SOEs. The main conclusions are unchanged when we perform endogeneity tests and several robust checks. Further, we conduct estimations on influence mechanisms and find that institutional cross-ownership can reduce excessive managerial perks through improving information environment and corporate governance. Especially, listed firms with institutional cross-ownership can achieve better future performance. Overall, this paper enriches existing literature on institutional cross-ownership and inspires a new direction to deepen discussions on SOEs’ reforms in China.

Growth vs. Value: The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Growth and value are popular terms in the lexicon of finance. For many years, scholars and investment professionals have claimed that value strategies outperform the growth ones, even in major market declines. However, since the early 2010’s, this seems to no longer hold, as growth strategies consistently generate superior returns. With declaration of Covid-19 as a pandemic, stock markets across the world were confronted with immense uncertainty. Taking the recent trend reversal in outperformance into consideration, such economic climate sparks interest in the differences in the response of growth and value strategies. Using log returns data for value and growth portfolios during the 2010-2021 period, this study provides empirical evidence that value portfolios show greater sensitivity to the Covid-19 pandemic. While findings show that the pandemic had a profound impact on the performance and riskiness of both portfolios, they clearly indicate higher volatility, frequency of extreme losses and average loss in the value portfolio, which further extends the growth outperformance to market downturns.

Valuating consumer credit portfolios

This paper proposes a model that associates borrower credit risk with the cash flow method to assess the economic value of a consumer credit portfolio. A Monte Carlo simulation applying the method to an illustrative loan reveals that the lending standards of the institution, captured in the model by the expected and unexpected losses of the contract according to Basel II Internal Rating-Based Approach, is a key driver of the portfolio's intrinsic value, lending support to the evidence that a bank's credit policy and a bank's valuation are associated.

Analysis of herding behavior in individual investor portfolios using machine learning algorithms

This paper examines the determinants of herding at both stock and individual investor levels and studies the portfolio performance of herd vs. non-herd portfolios using machine learning algorithms. The disposition effect and the attention effect seem to explain herding behavior at the stock level. At the individual investor level, the cumulative number of buys and portfolio values reduce the prediction of herding behavior, while high values of portfolio return lead to a small increase in herding. Individuals who herd do not outperform either market or non-herd portfolios, suggesting that herding is a behavioral bias. Thus, such behavior seems to destabilize stock markets, creating temporary discrepancies in stock prices followed by reversals back to fundamentals. The most predictive factor in the performance tests of individual portfolios is the market risk premium and using equally-weighted factors rather than value-weighted factors seem to provide more consistent results in the portfolio performance analyses.

The Moroccan EFL Students’ Attitudes toward Portfolio as an Alternative Mode of Assessment in Writing Classes

This study is a part of a more extensive quasi-experimental study on the pedagogical value of portfolio as an alternative mode of assessment in the Moroccan EFL writing classes. It reports on the experimental group students’ experiences with and attitudes toward portfolio assessment (PA). The participants in this group were 24 high school students, including both male and female students. After benefiting from portfolio-based writing assessment activities for two subsequent semesters, they were invited to voice their attitudes toward the experience using questionnaires and written reflections. The results of the study indicate that most students were highly positive about the pedagogical value of PA and highly recommend it as a viable instructional and assessment alternative.

Sufficient Income and Sustainable Withdrawal Rates for Retirement

Since the passage of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), numerous companies from throughout the United States have chosen to change from providing “Defined Benefit” pension plans to providing “Defined Contribution” pension plans. Successful retirement planning is an iterative process that requires the management of many variables. Some are random and unpredictable in scope and magnitude and others are choices we make as our retirement objectives change. It’s essential that changes be incorporated expeditiously to minimize adverse outcomes. One can begin the process by estimating the annual income required to support one’s “retirement lifestyle” if retirement occurred today. Then extrapolate that income to the planned retirement date based upon the expected rate of inflation. A “modified four percent rule” can then be used to estimate the portfolio value required to support 30 or more years in retirement. The financial planner and client should go through this process at least every two years or when major events suggest a change is required. To assist the planner, this paper extends the Four Percent Rule in the following ways: Time in retirement is 16 – 40 years in 2-year increments with an asset allocation range is 0% to 100% stocks in 15 equal steps.

Pathwise grid valuation of fixed-income portfolios with applications to risk management

Numerical calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for large-scale portfolios poses great challenges to financial institutions. The problem is even more daunting for large fixed-income portfolios as their underlying instruments have exposure to higher dimensions of risk factors. This article provides an efficient algorithm for calculating VaR using a historical grid-based approach with volatility updating and shows its efficiency in computational cost and accuracy. Our VaR computation algorithm is flexible and simple, while one can easily extend it to cover other nonlinear portfolios such as derivative portfolios on equities and FX securities.

Energy saving at energy-intensive enterprises

Purpose. Investigate the methods of decision-making in the project portfolio management, as well as perform their software implementation as part of the system of the portfolio management optimization of energy saving projects at energy-intensive enterprises. Methodology. To achieve this goal, Markovitz's portfolio theory was chosen - the theory of financial investment, in which the methods of optimization are the most profitable distribution of the risk of the securities portfolio and income valuation. In combination with portfolio theory, methods were used to find the maximum Sharpe coefficient and minimum volatility according to randomly generated portfolios. Findings. Methods of portfolio management of energy saving projects are considered through their generalization to the methods of optimization of investment portfolios, but taking into account the specifics of the subject area. A software application has been developed and tested that automatically downloads data for certain stocks for a certain period from an electronic resource, generates random portfolios and optimizes them by maximizing the Sharpe ratio and minimizing portfolio volatility. Composing a portfolio of investments from four stocks traded on the stock exchange, the return and risk of the portfolio with different types of optimization were calculated. The application implements graphical display of portfolio optimization results in the form of tables and graphs. The first graph shows the changes in each stock over a given period of time. The following is a graph of daily profitability instead of actual prices, where you can see the volatility of shares. The simulated portfolio optimization based on the effective limit is graphically presented - the line along which the points will give the least risk to the target return and the calculated optimization of the portfolio based on the effective limit. The graphs and tables built by the program allow the user to better assess the created portfolio of the energy saving project. Originality. The approach proposed in this paper is a combination of methods for optimizing the investment portfolio according to Markovitz's portfolio theory and methods for finding the maximum Sharpe coefficient and minimum volatility in one software application to solve a wide range of problems. Practical value. The completed development has significant practical value, as it allows you to optimize quickly the financial portfolio for any assets, which allows, among other things, to use the system to optimize the management of portfolios of energy saving projects in energy-intensive enterprises. In addition, it can be the basis or model for a similar development.

Jouska: a lesson on financial (il)literacy of Indonesian millennials?

Learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: Students/participants can understand the type of financial fraud pertaining to the case; Students/participants can analyse the case using the fraud triangle perspective; students/participants can describe detection/anticipation strategies to prevent such acts from taking place in the future; students/participants can evaluate the case using the ethical decision-making framework; and students/participants can comprehend the importance of financial literacy when investing, especially in this digital era. Case overview/synopsis This case discusses the investment funds mismanagement accusations addressed to PT Jouska Finansial Indonesia (Jouska). Jouska is a financial planner business that was immensely popular among Indonesian young investors. It actively posted interesting content on its social media accounts, gaining attention from the millennial and Gen Z generations. However, in 2020, many of its clients reported and filed complaints that their portfolio values decreased significantly because of Jouska’s decision to invest their funds in low-quality stocks. Jouska was also alleged to violate its role as a financial planner by being able to perform several activities that fell under the authority of investment managers. This case attracted the attention of authorities so that the Investment Alert Task Force (SWI) stopped Jouska’s operational activities and initiated an investigation into the case. SWI also blocked Jouska’s websites, applications and social media accounts, in cooperation with the Ministry of Communication and Information. Despite settlement agreements that Jouska claimed had been offered to several clients, at the end of 2020 some of its clients and former clients filed a formal lawsuit. As of January 2021, several alleged criminal actions attributed to Jouska were still under investigation, comprised of money laundering, clients’ funds embezzlement, fraud, and insider trading. In October 2021, Aakar’s status was a suspect in the allegations. This case is another example of investment misconduct or fraud; to put it another way, it is the effect. It is expected that the participants can deliberate other perspectives during the discussion that could be the cause of such a case, hence viewing it holistically. Complexity academic level Undergraduate level. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

Voting and trading: The shareholder’s dilemma

We study governance when shareholders vote and can also buy or sell shares. We find that voting for the policy that one believes is better for the firm maximizes portfolio value only when pivotal; otherwise, it is better to vote against one’s information, distort the market, and then trade at the distorted price. Equilibrium voting informativeness balances these forces and is demonstrably low. As the number of shareholders grows, the probability of making the correct decision becomes lower than the informational quality of just one shareholder’s private signal. Despite this, shareholders extract information rents from trading and thus obtain additional value from their private information. These effects are related to the level of direct information leakage in the market. The predicted patterns of trading and market volatility help reconcile several debates.

Practical Applications of Does Rare Whisky Add Value in Multi-Asset Portfolios?

In <b><i>Does Rare Whisky Add Value in Multi-Asset Portfolios?</i></b> from the Spring 2022 issue of <b><i>The Journal of Alternative Investments</i></b>, <b>Lars Tegtmeier</b> at <b>Merseburg University of Applied Sciences</b> finds that investing in rare whisky¹ adds value to a portfolio. He explains that supply and demand factors driving whisky prices are different from many other assets. This difference stems in part from the whisky aging process, so the current supply is due to production decisions made many years in the past. Past demand and supply imbalances led to a shortage in rare whisky and subsequently a dramatic increase in auction sales of whisky bottles and high returns. Tegtmeier explains that the unique pricing factors driving returns are uncorrelated with other major asset classes. He then studies the impact of adding rare whisky to multiasset portfolios. Additionally, he reviews several methods of accessing rare whisky exposure and the associated costs in this small but developing market.

Liquidity and Discipline. Bank due Diligence Over the Business Cycle

AbstractThe quality of bank lending is increasingly viewed as a force driving the buildup and unfolding of crises. In a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that banks’ access to liquidity and the values of loan portfolios govern banks’ incentives and effectiveness in producing information on loans. Consistent with granular loan-level evidence from US banks, the calibrated model predicts that loan due diligence deteriorates during expansions and intensifies during contractions. This countercyclicality attenuates investment and output effects of liquidity shocks but can moderately amplify loan quality shocks. Credit policies may dilute stabilizing effects of due diligence.