Value At Risk Research Articles

Assessment of secondary cancer risks within non-target organs during proton therapy for lung cancer: A Monte Carlo study

Proton therapy is a rapidly progressing modality with a significant impact on lung cancer treatment. However, there are concerns about the subsequent effects of secondary radiation in out-of-field organs. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the risk of subsequent secondary cancers within non-target organs during proton therapy for lung cancer. A Monte Carlo model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 110 male phantom was employed to calculate the absorbed dose associated with secondary photons and neutrons within out-of-field organs for different tumor locations. The risk of induced secondary cancers was then estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee (BEIR) VII and National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) 116 risk models. Organs close to the tumor, such as the heart, esophagus, thymus, and liver, received the highest equivalent doses. The calculated equivalent doses increased as the tumor depth increased from 4–8 cm to 12–16 cm. The contribution of neutrons to the total equivalent dose was dominant (up to 90%) in most of the organs studied. The calculated risks of secondary cancers were higher in the liver and esophagus compared with other organs when using the BEIR risk model. The maximum risk value was obtained for the left lung when the NCRP 116 risk model was used. Furthermore, the estimated risks of secondary malignancies increased with the tumor depth using both risk models. The calculated risks of radiation-induced secondary cancers were relatively lower than the baseline cancer risks. However, extra attention is warranted to minimize subsequent secondary cancers after proton therapy for lung cancer.

Characteristics and risk assessments of mercury pollution in a county region undergoing industrialization in northeastern China: a case study in Gongzhuling

Mercury pollution in emerging industrial zones and surrounding areas, especially in industrial concentration areas, has attracted much attention. So as to clarify the characteristics of Hg in the environment in China’s small and medium-sized industrial emerging and surrounding areas, central urban area of Gongzhuling, a traditional agricultural town with a high degree of industrialization in northeast Changchun industrial base, is taken as the scope. Geological accumulation trin (Igeo) was used to study the degree of soil mercury contamination in Gongzhuling area, latent Er (ecological risk) trin was used to appraise the Er of soil Hg in the study area, and non-carcinogenic risk assessment of mercury in soil using human exposure risk assessment model. The results showed that 34% of soil samples had higher Hg content than the background value of the province’s soil (0.04 mg kg−1). The Igeo results showed that Hg pollution rate of soil in study area was 9% (index >0). In conclusion, the level of soil Hg pollution in Gongzhuling area was low, and the pollution area is mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the study range. The highest and lowest Er values of soil Hg from the study sample were 2.23 and 214.83, and 24% of the samples had Er > 40, that means they pose a moderate or higher potential ecological risk, and most of these points are located in the northeast of the study range. The main route of human exposure to Hg is oral ingestion. The HQ (non-carcinogenic risk index) and HI (total non-carcinogenic risk value) of soil mercury were both much less than 1, it indicates that the present level of soil Hg in the study range does not pose a threat to local adult health for the time being. This study provides reference for other urban pollution risk assessment, and further defines the direction of future work.

Analisa Risiko Keselamatan dan Kesehatan Kerja (K3) dengan Menggunakan Metode Hirarc di PT. Otomotif

Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment, and Control, or HIRARC, is a technique for detecting hazards that is used to calculate risk values and classify them into work-related hazards in order to define the risk control that is applied to each ongoing activity. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and control risks related to occupational safety and health hazards in the charging area of PT. Otomotif. This kind of study combines a descriptive methodology with a qualitative approach. The analysis conducted in the work area of PT. Otomotif's charging area revealed 38 possible dangers, which were categorized into four categories: Low Risk, Medium Risk, High Risk, and Extreme Risk. Controls carried out to reduce the possibility of work accidents include making conveyor bearing covers, making off charge alarms, replacing larger roller materials, adding APD Aprone longan and others.

Identifying limit reference points for robust harvest control rules in fisheries management

Risk and uncertainty are intrinsic characteristics of natural resources that must be taken into account in their management. Harvest control rules (HCR) used to be the central management tool to control stock fisheries in an uncertain context. A typical HCR determines fishing mortality as a linear relationship of the biomass binding only when the biomass is above a critical risk value. Choosing the linear relationship and the risk value is a complex task when there is uncertainty because it requires a high level of data and an in-deep knowledge of the stock. This paper fully characterizes robust HCRs that explicitly include scientific uncertainty using the robust control theory approach. Our theoretical findings show that under uncertainty: i) Constant HCRs are not robust; ii) Robust HCRs show a steeper linear relationship between fishing mortality and biomass and a higher value of biomass to be consider at risk than non-robust HCRs. From the implementation viewpoint, we assume a three-sigma rule and show that robustness is achieved by selecting a fishing mortality such that its deviation from the fishing mortality target is twice the deviation of the biomass from the biomass target, and the critical value of the biomass (the point below which fishing should cease, or become as close to zero as possible) is half of the biomass associated with the maximum sustainable yield when this is the target.

Evaluation and Health Risk Assessment of Some Heavy Metals in Pork and Beef Sold in Okpuno, Awka South, Anambra State, Nigeria

The study was undertaken to evaluate some heavy metals in beef and pork sold at Okpuno and assess their health risks. Six samples of pork and beef were bought and analysed for three months for heavy metals viz. cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and iron (Fe) with the use of atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). The results generated from the analysed heavy metals were utilised in computing the potential human health risk associated with consuming both types of meat by consumers. The result showed that in pork, Fe, Zn and Pb were highest within the three months with the following mean concentrations 0.22 ± 0.22, 0.16 ± 0.15, and 0.09 ± 0.07mg/kg respectively. Also, Fe (0.30 ± 0.25 mg/kg) and Zn (0.21 ± 0.20 mg/kg) recorded higher concentrations in beef. The estimated daily intakes of all five heavy metals were found to be low when compared to the recommended daily dietary intake. Concerning health risk, the target hazard quotient of the analysed heavy metals ranged from 0.003566 to 0.00000179 and followed the increasing order of Cd > Pb > Cu > Fe > Zn. The target hazard quotient of the five metals poses little threat to human health (THQ<1). The computed carcinogenic risk for Cd (0.0000112) and Pb (0.0000000152) were within the tolerable limit (1 × 10−6 < CR < 1 × 10−4). However, the carcinogenic risk value for Cd in this study indicates that serious health concerns associated with cadmium toxicity may occur over time from the consumption of these meats. Findings from this study revealed that some of the heavy metals were within safety limits for human consumption, hence, intake of these meats (pork and beef) poses no threat to consumers.

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Metro Tunnels in Soft Soils

Tunnels are of significant importance in the sustainable development of global urban areas, particularly in metropolitan areas. It is of the utmost importance to evaluate the seismic performance of tunnels across a wide spectrum of earthquake intensities. In order to address this, our study presents a framework for the assessment of seismic risk in tunnels. This study employs the city of Shanghai’s urban metro tunnels as case studies. The nominal values of seismic risk for the three main damage states—minor, moderate, and major—were calculated. Furthermore, the influence of utilizing disparate fragility functions on expected seismic risk assessments was investigated. In this framework, the probability density functions of the different fragility curve models are employed to treat the probability values associated with them as random variables. This approach aims to facilitate the propagation of IMV in seismic risk assessments. The results demonstrate that the Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the full range of input model variability into risk estimation. The findings of this study offer a foundation for decision-making processes, seismic risk assessments, and the resilience management of urban infrastructure.

Health risk assessment of heavy metals in groundwater sources: carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic evaluation

ABSTRACT Persistent exposure to arsenic, chromium, cadmium, lead, and selenium in drinking water above permissible levels poses significant health risks, including increased incidences of skin, lung, bladder, and kidney cancers. This study evaluated 34 water samples from Rupnagar district, Punjab, for heavy metal content. Health risks were assessed using hazard quotient (HQ) and chronic daily intake metrics. Aluminium concentrations were highest in Block Nurpur Bedi (36.43 mg/L). Arsenic levels in Ropar and Anandpur Sahib were 0.09 and 0.068 mg/L, respectively. Cadmium was highest in Nurpur Bedi (0.041 mg/L). Morinda had the highest selenium concentration (0.0038 mg/L). Lead was detected across all blocks, peaking in Chamkaur Sahib (2.176 mg/L). The HQ exceeded unity in nearly all areas, indicating significant health risks from aluminium, arsenic, and lead. The hazard index was highest in Nurpur Bedi (2.66) for adults. Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) values indicated a high cancer risk from arsenic, chromium, and lead across all blocks. One-way analysis of variance revealed significant differences among Fe, As, and Al concentrations (p < 0.05). The findings underscore the need for targeted treatment technologies and policies to mitigate heavy metal contamination and its health impacts in Punjab.

Assessment of Uranium Pollution in Ground Water and Human Health in Balod District, Chhattisgarh

A laser fluorimetric technique was used to measure the amount of uranium present in samples of groundwater from the Balod district, Chhattisgarh, central India. For this purpose, we collected twenty-nine water samples from different villages in the Balod district, Chhattisgarh from September 2022 to June 2023. Here, the concentration of uranium in the sample of water ranges from 0.10 to 66.7(µg/l). A maximum number of samples had uranium contamination levels below the acceptable limit (30 µg/l), except for Siwani village (66.7µg/l), as approved by the WHO. The USEPA recommendations were used to determine the chemical risk ( Non-carcinogenic) and excess lifetime carcinogenic risk (ECR) caused by groundwater consumption. The allowed excess lifetime cancer risk ( ELCR) value of 1.0´10-4was found to be exceeded in a few water samples by the risk of cancer resulting from drinking water. The LADD value of 18 % and HQ value of 24% of the water sample exceed the permissible limit indicating a high risk of chemical poisoning. In this analysis, we found that the area's uranium's chemical toxicity may be the cause of non-carcinogenic health problems, but eventually, there is no Carcinogenic (radiological) risk to people.

Application of edge computing and IoT technology in supply chain finance

This study proposes an IoT data management framework based on blockchain and edge computing and conducts detailed simulation experiment design and performance evaluation for the field of supply chain finance. Previous methods often struggled with high latency, limited scalability, and inadequate risk management, and to address these issues, the experimental platform includes traditional centralized systems, distributed systems, blockchain-based systems, and edge computing + blockchain systems. By monitoring indicators such as data processing delay, data transmission delay, data retrieval time, system throughput, and data integrity of each platform, and introducing evaluation formulas for credit risk, operational risk, and market risk, the performance of different systems in processing supply chain financial data is comprehensively analyzed. The experimental results show that the edge computing + blockchain system performs well in data processing efficiency, security, real-time, and system throughput, especially under high load conditions. Our market risk value is reduced to 0.015. This framework improves the efficiency and security of data transmission and effectively reduces credit risk and operational risk, providing an efficient and reliable solution for data management in supply chain finance.

Multi-objective parameter design and economic analysis of VSG-controlled hybrid energy systems in islanded grids

Photovoltaic (PV) systems offer cost-effective power solutions for outlying islands but often compromise system stability due to reduced inertia. This study introduces a Virtual Synchronous Generator (VSG) control strategy, integrated with Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and PV, to enhance system inertia. By optimizing coordination between these energy sources, the proposed method mitigates oscillations and improves grid stability. However, PV-VSG systems are generally not favored by energy providers due to the requirement for pre-curtailment of power output. To address this, the paper proposes a parameter design method for VSG control of ESS and PV, utilizing multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) optimization to simultaneously increase the frequency nadir and minimize the settling time after disturbances. Additionally, an adaptive curtailment decision and parameter design method based on artificial neural networks is introduced to enhance the feasibility of PV-VSG systems by reducing PV pre-curtailment and prioritizing PV power release and ESS charging during frequency oscillations. Real data from the Penghu Archipelago in Taiwan are used to build a dynamic model in DIgSILENT, enabling interaction with MOGA. The Value at Risk (VaR) method with dual stochastic variables is employed to assess the allowable PV installed capacity. The results show that when VaR is set at 1%, the proposed PV-VSG method can increase PV penetration by 57.5% compared to scenarios without VSG. Furthermore, compared to traditional PV-VSG methods, the proposed approach achieves a 16.8% increase in PV penetration and reduces annual PV curtailment by 25 MWh. This study also evaluates the economic impact of planners choosing different risk levels, offering valuable insights for grid development in remote or island regions.

Environmental contamination of arsenic: pathway analysis through water-soil-feed-livestock in Nadia District (India) and potential human health risk.

This study investigated arsenic (As) concentrations in diverse environmental components and their potential impact on the health risks faced by residents of the arsenic (As)-contaminated Nadia district in West Bengal, India. A random selection of 182 cattle and 255 goats from 40 livestock farmers in the district revealed that both animals and humans were naturally exposed to elevated arsenic levels through contaminated drinking water, foods, grasses, concentrate feeds, various fodder tree leaves, and other food/feed resources. The mean As concentration in roughages (483.18µg/kg DM) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) than in tree leaves (391.53µg/kg DM), and concentrate feed/ingredients (186.66µg/kg DM). Pond water exhibited higher arsenic levels (106.11µg/L) compared to shallow tube well water (47.96µg/L) and deep tube well water/tap water (10.64µg/L and 10.04µg/L, respectively). The mean arsenic concentration in soils DM of fodder fields, crop fields, and grassland was 10.25, 10.58, and 10.20mg/kg, respectively. It was observed that protein-rich feeds had lower levels of arsenic accumulation (p < 0.048), while fiber-rich feeds containing more cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin had higher arsenic levels (p < 0.017). Goats consumed 73.46% more arsenic per kg body weight compared to dairy cows. Although chronic and sub-chronic arsenic exposure in the district did not typically manifest symptoms or visible signs in ruminant animals, concentrations in the hair and feces of both cattle and goats exceeded normal values. Cattle feces had significantly higher arsenic (410.43µg/kg DM) levels (p < 0.001) than goat feces (227.00µg/kg DM), and arsenic concentration in cattle hair (1917.74µg/kg DM) was also significantly greater (p < 0.001) than goat hair (1435.74µg/kg DM). Arsenic levels in milk samples from both species were below 10µg/kg. Liver (356.02µg/kg DM) and kidney (317.22µg/kg DM) contained significantly higher (p < 0.001) levels of arsenic compared to muscle (204.23µg/kg DM), and bone (161.98µg/kg DM) in local meat-type adult male goats. The skin accumulated the highest amount of arsenic (576.24µg/kg DM) among the non-edible parts of the goat carcass. The cumulative cancer risk value for adults was 4.96 × 10-3, exceeding the threshold value (1 × 10-6). This suggests a significant risk of cancer development for the population in arsenic-affected areas. Non-cancer risks (hazard indexes) were estimated at 11.01 for adults. Our observations revealed that the highest bioaccumulation of arsenic occurred in the hair of cows, and goats in the examined localities. The biotransformation factor (BTF) for hair was much higher compared to other excreted samples from both species. The calculated BTF followed the order: hair > feces > milk for cows and goats. Livestock farmers in Nadia district are advised to carefully select feed resources, prioritizing those high in crude protein and low in neutral detergent fiber, and they should provide drinking water from deep aquifers to ensure the safety of milk and meat for human consumption.

Determination of tetramethylammonium hydroxide in air using ion chromatography or ultra-performance liquid chromatography - high-resolution mass spectrometry

Tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) is extensively utilized in the semiconductor and optoelectronic industries, serving as either a developer or an etchant. TMAH possesses acute toxicity and alkaline corrosiveness, having caused several fatal and injurious accidents in Taiwan. However, there is currently a lack of methods available for assessing TMAH exposure. This study developed a method involving sampling with quartz fiber filters followed by ultrasonic agitation in 10 mL mobile phase, filtering, and analysis using either ion chromatography (IC) or ultra-performance liquid chromatography - high-resolution mass spectrometry (UPLC-HRMS). Utilizing the characteristics of HRMS, the compound analyzed was identified as tetramethylammonium ion (TMA+) through mass spectrometry analysis. The method exhibits excellent trapping capacity and recovery rate. The linear range of TMA+ for IC is 0.3 to 100 μg/mL, with a correlation coefficient of R = 0.9998. The linear range of TMA+ for UPLC-HRMS is 0.002 to 1 μg/mL, with a correlation coefficient of R = 0.996. The recovery rates for IC and HRMS were 116.6% and 90.6%, with corresponding coefficient of variation (CV) of 2.25% and 3.53%, respectively. Samples can be stored at room temperature for 28 days. Verification of this method was conducted at the TMAH factory, and the air concentrations measured in the TMAH filling area were 3.29 and 4.75 μg/m3 from IC and UPLC-HRMS, respectively. This method will be applied in the on-site analysis of occupational hazards for operators in chemical plants, technology factories, and recycling plants, aiming to evaluate risk values to protect the safety and health of workers and prevent occupational diseases.

Incremental predictive value of genetic risk and functional brain connectivity in determining antipsychotic response in schizophrenia

We aimed to assess the incremental value of schizophrenia polygenic risk score (PgRS) and resting-state functional brain connectivity (rsFC) when added to clinical data in predicting the six-week response to oral risperidone (Risperdal) in schizophrenia. Fifty-seven, 54, and 43 individuals in a group of never-before-treated first-episode schizophrenia had good quality whole-genome sequencing (10x), rsFC, and both genomic and rsFC data, respectively, at baseline. Symptom severity ratings were obtained at baseline and six-weeks of oral risperidone (Risperdal) treatment. The primary outcome was the percentage change in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Total scores after risperidone (Risperdal) treatment. Clinical, PgRS, and rsFC determinants of treatment response were first evaluated independently. Subsequently, three blocks of hierarchical multiple regression analyses with leave-one-out cross-validation (n = 43), were implemented to study clinical, clinical + PgRS and clinical + PgRS + rsFC determinants of treatment response. While the combined clinical variables did not show a statistically significant prediction of treatment response, adding PgRS (9 % R2 change) and rsFC (26 % R2 change) in hierarchical steps, significantly improved the overall proportion of variance explained in treatment response. This proof-of-concept investigation underscores the incremental benefits offered by genetic and neuroimaging metrics over clinical measures in determining prospectively-ascertained short-term treatment response in first-episode schizophrenia.

Transfer factors of naturally occurring radionuclides from soil-to-rice cultivated in Bangladesh and associated health implications

This study investigates the uptake of naturally occurring radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th, and 40K) from soil by rice plants in extensively cultivated regions in Bangladesh. It also evaluates the potential radiation risks associated with rice consumption by the Bangladeshi populace. High purity germanium (HPGe) gamma-ray spectrometry was employed to measure the concentrations of radionuclides in both soil and rice samples. For 40K, our results agree with the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) published value; however, the transfer factors (TF) for the other two radionuclides differ considerably. Despite the fact that the IAEA based its publication of TFs for 226Ra and 232Th on clay soil, the majority of the soil profile in the present study was silty clay with a little alkalinity. Moreover, the data obtained may have been impacted by the growing seasons, cultivation methods, and soil fertility. Additionally, the annual effective dose due to the ingestion of radioactivity resulting from rice consumption was evaluated and the results agree with UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation), 2000. With a few exceptions, the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) values for 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K were below the globally average permissible level (1 × 10−3). In light of this, the current study indicates that consuming rice does not pose an immediate health risk to the general public. By studying TFs among various rice varieties and geographical areas, scientists can develop models to forecast the possible radiation exposure from rice consumption and pinpoint activities or areas that require additional attention.

RISK AND OPPORTUNITY MANAGEMENT IN MEP PROJECT-BASED COMPANIES AND ITS IMPACT ON BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

The board is crucial for MEP project-based organizations to progress. Gamble the board prevents cost overruns and project delays, while opportunity the executives capitalize on excellent opportunities. Chance administration in Pakistan's growth is the study's main focus, and Chance mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) management in project board in Pakistani development is reviewed. The evaluation included several hundred development (MEP) projects from Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Islamabad Pakistan's five largest cities with active development and large investments. Surveys are sent to company managers via group inspection, and 250 responses are received mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) projects management. Data is analyzed using Savvy PLS's structured condition presentation. Business performance is connected to the board systems that are based on proven evidence, evaluation, checking and helped the construction project succeed. Risk executives' methods fundamentally and well affected job completion, according to the assessment. Understanding executive risk valuation is much better. The results reveal that that in terms of genuine development projects, an efficiency study may present a fuller picture of risk the board in various enterprises. The practice of conducting systematic audits to assess the philosophy of writing is rarely employed in the execution of executive projects and risk analysis. The results revealed that the effective mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) performance of the board tactics is in improving project execution in Pakistan. The exploratory approach is employed to integrate previous studies on risk management executives and the implementation of business ventures in the field of development.

Methodological approaches to assessing the risks of water resources depletion in the context of climate change (using plain territories of Ukraine as an example)

The relevance of the work is determined by the necessity of quantitative assessment of the risks of water resources changes occurring in the early 21st century due to the greenhouse effect and corresponding climate changes. To evaluate climate risks the authors used a probabilistic approach which involves multiplying the indicator of water resource reduction by the probability of such event occurrence. Reduction of water resources caused by warming characterizes their "depletion". The study utilized the results of calculations of the average long-term annual "climate" runoff, determined through the "climate-runoff" model based on meteorological data of the averaged model trajectory of the EURO-CORDEX project for the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The calculation period extends from 2021 to 2050, while the baseline period continues from the beginning of observations until 1989. The comparison of the calculated climatic runoff and the baseline runoff was performed across meteorological stations. The assessment of the changes was carried out by calculating the relative deviation between the baseline and calculated runoff values. The probability of the "depletion" stage for water resources was determined as the ratio of the number of meteorological stations (grid nodes) where changes reached certain magnitudes to the total number of stations considered. The threshold indicators for the degree of depletion of water resources included changes exceeding 10% (statistically significant changes in water resources), 50% (water resources destruction), and 70% (irreversible destruction of water resources). The objective of the study consists in developing criteria for calculating climate risks and establishing the risks of formation of a tense, critical, and catastrophic state of water resources, taking Ukraine as an example. A detailed examination of the intervals of changes in water resources showed that the highest risk of their depletion over the period from 2020 to 2050 will be observed in the range from -20 to -40% (tense state) for the RCP4.5 scenario and from -30 to -60% (tense state) for the RCP8.5 scenario. It was established that the climate risks of depletion and irreversible depletion of water resources for the territory of Ukraine from 2020 to 2050 remain quite small, which is confirmed by the low probability of their occurrence. However, the risk values increase by 1.5 to 2.0 times for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Additionally, for calculating the climate risks, it was proposed to use a relative area subject to depletion as an indirect indicator of losses (a larger area implies higher costs of restoration). This approach allowed for having more differentiated risk assessments. The developed methodology for assessing the climate risks of water resources depletion in the context of global warming can be applied for various models and countries.

Efficient vehicle lateral safety analysis based on Multi-Kriging metamodels: Autonomous trucks under different lateral control modes during being overtaken

Different lateral control modes for autonomous trucks have been proposed in the past to improve road sustainability. To evaluate the lateral reliability and risk of autonomous trucks under different lateral control modes, especially in windy conditions and during overtaking, this study proposes a high-precision, efficient method based on Multi-Kriging (MK) metamodeling. Compared to Support Vector Regression (SVR), widely used in vehicle safety studies, the MK method builds Kriging metamodels for all potential deviation crashes of autonomous trucks, significantly reducing computational costs while ensuring accuracy. Additionally, instead of using the maximum lateral deviation as a dynamic risk indicator, this study innovatively suggests using the distance between the autonomous truck and the lane line after the maximum lateral deviation occurs. Considering the vehicle and environmental characteristics, the MK method is used to calculate the probability of a crash and the associated risk at various lateral positions of the autonomous truck, quantifying the crash probability and risk values under different lateral control modes. Furthermore, the study investigates the influence of the standard deviation of the normal distribution on the crash probability and risk values of autonomous trucks, providing valuable insights for future research on road sustainability and safety under autonomous driving conditions.

The impact of climatic conditions on the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk of BTEX compounds: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Climatic conditions are one of the most important factors affecting the risk level associated with exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) compounds. This systematic review and meta-analysis study aimed to investigate the impact of climatic conditions on carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk value changes during exposure to BTEX compounds. Five electronic bibliographic databases (Scopus, PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science) were systematically searched. The search algorithm consisted of three sets of keywords and their possible combinations. For different climatic conditions, the overall mean and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of the effect size related to the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk of BTEX were calculated using a random effect model. 26 articles passed the inclusion/exclusion criteria and were included in this review. The highest values of the hazard quotient (HQ) for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene were in the summer season (53.3 %, 47.1 %, 73.3 %, 68.8 % of the studies) and in the winter season (33.3 %, 47.1 %, 20 %, and 25 % of the studies), respectively. Additionally, the highest values of carcinogenic risk (CR) for benzene and ethylbenzene were revealed in the summer season (50 % and 75 % of the studies) and in the winter season (33.3 % and 25 % of the studies), respectively. Based on the results of the meta-analysis also, risk values related to occupational and environmental exposures in summer were often higher than those in winter. These results can be used by policymaking to focus on decreasing exposure to BTEX, particularly in climatic conditions with higher hazards.

Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions

AimsThe purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C).MethodsData on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040.ResultsThe overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females.ConclusionThis study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.

Impact of organic foods on chronic diseases and health perception: a systematic review of the evidence.

The aim of the present systematic review was to evaluate the existing data on the health impacts, of the consumption of organically grown foods versus conventionally farmed alternatives, with specific focus on the postulated health superiority of organic foods. A systematic literature research was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were articles on adults (>18 years of age) consuming organic foods for ≥6 months, written in English language, and provision of comparative results between conventional and organic nutrition regarding health indices. From 1760 identified references, 21 primary research articles (2006-2022) met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes related to chronic disease prevalence, biomarker effects, and exposure to pesticides and other harmful substances were evaluated. A significant inverse relationship between organic food consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors, including obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, was observed in the majority of prospective studies. The data on cancer risk and nutrient value comparison between organic and conventional foods were inconclusive. Clinical trials consistently indicated lower pesticide exposure in participants on organic diets, suggesting potential health benefits. The consumption of organic foods is associated with reduced cardiometabolic risks and pesticide exposure. However, the long-term impact on cancer risk remains undetermined. Future long-term studies are needed to establish whether an organic diet is superior to a conventional one in terms of overall health benefits.