Valence Politics Research Articles

Hidden contestation: valence issues, methodological blindness and the politics of development in Nigeria

ABSTRACT Political competition in Africa is often characterized as suffering from a number of deficiencies at the level of political discourse and electoral campaigns, which together paint a picture of an essentially vacuous political life. This article contends that these absences are to some degree methodologically generated. If African political actors appear to have little substance to say about the most pressing social and economic issue of the day, then perhaps as scholars of politics we are looking at what they say in the wrong way? This article points to the limitations of an increasingly popular method of discourse analysis in African politics based on coding political statements within a framework that contrasts valence politics with a position-based appeals framework. It argues for an alternative more contextualized, inductive method of analysing political discourse as the struggle to control the meaning of key terms, using the example highly contested gubernatorial election in Nigeria’s southwest. Debates over “stomach infrastructure” and a “hierarchy of needs” reveal the possibility that political discourse and electoral campaigning that on more mechanistic methodologies look devoid of substantive political contestation in fact contain competing conceptions of development and what the state should do.

The Fulfilment of Election Pledges in India

The central idea of promissory representation is that parties make promises to voters during election campaigns and then fulfil those promises after elections if they have the power to do so. Until now, most comparative research on the making, breaking, and keeping of parties’ campaign promises, or “election pledges,” has considered Western democracies. The present study examines pledge fulfilment in India, focusing on pledges made by the two main Indian parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress at the 2009 and 2014 national parliamentary elections. The evidence indicates that election pledges are prominent parts of electoral discourse and policymaking in India, as they are in Western countries. However, the form of pledge making and keeping is characterised by the distinctive features of Indian politics, notably the prevalence of valence politics on socio-economic issues and identity politics on issues relating to religion, castes and tribes, and gender.

Election pledges in India: comparisons with Western democracies

ABSTRACT Election pledges feature prominently in the theory and practice of representation and have been examined extensively in a growing field of comparative research. However, research in this field has largely ignored non-Western democracies and the world’s largest electoral democracy, India. The present analysis begins to fill this lacuna by examining election pledges made by Indian parties at the national level over a period of two decades (1999-2019) and comparing this with selected Western parties. The extension of research on election pledges to India prompts us to assess the relevance of pledges to the distinctive characteristics of Indian party competition. This differs markedly from the spatial model of party competition that is often applied in pledge research in Western systems. Party competition in India is instead characterised largely by valence politics on socioeconomic issues and by identity politics on religious issues. The quantitative and qualitative analyses demonstrate the distinct features of pledges in policy areas characterised by valence and identity politics. We discuss the implications of the findings for understanding party competition in India and for the broader research programme on election pledges.

How do parties react to defections? Electoral strategies after a valence loss

AbstractSwitches produce a lack of credibility and damage a party's image, signalling weakness and an inability to select loyal MPs and preserve unity. Accordingly, we consider party out‐switching as a valence loss for the party. By combining information on party manifestos with a novel database on 2053 episodes of party switching, we investigate which electoral strategies parties adopt to reduce the negative consequences of such valence loss. Analyzing 1,131 manifestos related to 135 parties in 14 Western European democracies, from 1945 to 2015, we show that parties try to restore their positive image by investing on valence, in terms of competence, clarity and core issues. An instrumental variable approach corroborates our results. The findings have implications for spatial modelling, valence politics, issue ownership and issue competition.

Singapore's Pandemic Election: Opposition Parties and Valence Politics in GE2020

Singapore's 2020 general election was held amidst the most serious public health and economic crises in the country's history. Despite expectations that these parallel crises would precipitate a flight to safety and result in a strong performance by the dominant People's Action Party (PAP), the ruling party received its third-lowest popular vote share (61.2 percent) and lowest-ever seat share (89.2 percent) since independence. This article engages explanations for the unexpected results and argues that the vote swing against the PAP was enabled by a hitherto largely overlooked factor: the 2020 election included two opposition parties that could credibly compete with the PAP on the valence considerations that drive voting behaviour in Singapore, giving voters a perceived safe alternative to the PAP at the constituency level. Quantitative tests support the notion that party credibility—rather than demographic factors, incumbency advantages, Group Representation Constituencies, or assessments of the PAP's fourth- generation leaders—best explains variation in the vote swing against the PAP. Ultimately, the results suggest that the PAP's monopoly on party credibility is no longer assured, thus portending greater opposition competitiveness and pressure against the PAP in future elections. Nonetheless, the PAP's dominance remains intact and there is little evidence of a general appetite among the electorate for a non-PAP government, suggesting the likelihood of smaller course corrections rather than major steps towards democratization in the coming years.

Brexit, Positional Populism, and the Declining Appeal of Valence Politics

ABSTRACT A factor that may account for the largely unanticipated victory of Brexit in 2016 is the difference in engagement, mobilization, and, ultimately, turnout between those for whom the question of Brexit was a valence issue (a dry and almost technical question of determining the policies by which uncontroversial shared ends can be achieved) and those for whom it was a positional issue (a question of raw, almost visceral, political preference). The declining appeal of valence politics may reveal a phenomenon that goes beyond Brexit and Britain: a change in the nature and character of contemporary electoral competition that may help to explain the newly resurgent populism characteristic of Western liberal democracies.

EXPLAINING ELECTIONS IN SINGAPORE: DOMINANT PARTY RESILIENCE AND VALENCE POLITICS

AbstractThe People's Action Party (PAP) of Singapore is one of the world's longest ruling dominant parties, having won every general election since the country's independence in 1965. Why do Singaporeans consistently vote for the PAP, contrary to the expectations of democratization theories? We argue that valence considerations—specifically, perceptions of party credibility—are the main factor in the voting behavior of Singapore's electorate, and are critical to explaining the PAP's resilience. Furthermore, we argue that the primacy of valence politics arose in part by design, as the PAP has used its control of Singapore's high-capacity state to reshape society and thereby reshape voter preferences towards its comparative advantages. We use a multi-methods approach to substantiate this argument, including a comprehensive quantitative analysis of recent elections. Ultimately, our findings suggest that a focus on valence politics can increase the resilience of dominant parties, but that such a strategy also faces natural limits.

Like Father, Like Son: Justin Trudeau and Valence Voting in Canada’s 2015 Federal Election

Canada's 2015 federal election was an exiting, as well as a nostalgia provoking, contest. After nine years in office, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the governing Conservatives were defeated by the resurgent Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is the son of Pierre Trudeau, perhaps Canada’s best known prime minister. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that party leader images—a major component of the valence politics model of electoral choice—were important in both cases. Unlike his father, Justin Trudeau was castigated as a lightweight and just not ready. However, articulating plausible policies to jump-start Canada's sluggish economy and espousing sunny ways, the younger Trudeau was warmly received by many voters. In contrast, Harper's image of managerial competence was tarnished by bad economic news, and his attempt to refocus the campaign on emotionally charged cultural issues failed. The result was a Liberal majority government and a prime minister named Trudeau.

Explaining Elections in Singapore: Party Credibility & Valence Politics

The People's Action Party (PAP) of Singapore is one of the world's longest ruling dominant parties, having won every general election since the country's independence in 1965. Why do Singaporeans consistently vote for the PAP, contrary to the expectations of theories of democratization? We argue that valence considerations---specifically, perceptions of party credibility---are the dominant factor in the voting behavior of Singapore's electorate and a critical piece to the puzzle of the PAP's resilience. Furthermore, we argue that the primacy of valence politics arose in part by design, as the PAP has used its control of Singapore's high-capacity state to reshape society and thereby reshape voter preferences towards its comparative advantages. We use a multi-methods approach to demonstrate evidence in support of our argument through a within-case, historical analysis; a qualitative analysis of contemporary party competition and voter behavior; and a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the 2011 and 2015 general elections. Ultimately, our findings suggest that a focus on valence politics can increase the resilience of dominant parties, but that such a strategy also faces natural limits to the advantages it confers.

A Successful Defence: the 2016 National Assembly for Wales Election

The fifth election to the Welsh Assembly was held in May 2016. This article first outlines the political background to the election, before going on to assess the content and conduct of the election campaign. The results are then examined in detail: these show that while Labour’s vote share fell considerably, it comfortably retained its position as the largest party in the Assembly. None of Labour’s traditional rivals made significant ground, while United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) replaced the Liberal Democrats as the fourth party in the Assembly. Welsh Election Study data is then used to model the main factors shaping patterns of party support in the election. Modelling of vote choice in Wales in 2016 points to the continuing importance relevance of factors associated with ‘valence politics’ models, in particular leadership. Finally, the conclusion assesses the implications of the election for the future of party politics in Wales.

Leaders as cognitive shortcuts: on the representation of political competition at the European elections of 2014 in Italy

ABSTRACTThe huge success of the Democratic Party at the last European Parliament (EP) election in Italy has been widely interpreted as due to the unusual ability of its new leader Matteo Renzi to mobilize support for his party in an era of candidate-oriented and valence politics in which political leaders’ personal characteristics are crucial for vote choices and party performances. Framing the last EP elections as a sign of the overwhelming importance of personalized politics and personalized voting, however, does not tell us everything, there is to know about the role of leaders in voters’ decisions. According to the literature, in fact, leaders are not only a collection of personal traits and characteristics exerting short-term effects on voting behaviour, but also cognitive shortcuts that help decision-making by simplifying the complexity of the political environment. Within this framework, we investigate whether leader evaluations, in the form of confidence ratings, provide information about how Italian voters perceived the structure of political debate at the 2014 EP elections. Our results confirm that judgments of leaders imply specific representations of political competition, of which we try to outline some general features.

Valence politics and immigrant voting in the 2013 Australian election

ABSTRACTUsing data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, this article investigates voting patterns among Australian voters from non-English-speaking backgrounds (NESB). It reveals that a valence politics model – comparing images of the two major parties and their leaders, partisan attachments, and judgements about party performance on economic issues – outperforms rival models. That is, it provides a powerful explanation of the decisions NESB voters made. In deciding between competing parties in the 2013 election, NESB voters resembled Australian voters who emigrated from English-speaking backgrounds and Australian-born voters. The findings of this article offer new insights into electoral research in Australia, indicating that previous studies have underestimated the important role of the valence politics model in explaining voting patterns among Australian voters. The article also provides plausible explanations for the convergence between various cohorts of voters in the 2013 election.

Hunting the Snark: A Reply to “Re-Evaluating Valence Models of Political Choice”

This paper responds to Evans and Kat’s critique of the valence politics model of electoral choice. Their critique is deficient in several respects. First, the authors do not test the valence politics model, which is motivated by a theory of voting rather than a claim about the relationship between generalized measures of “party preference” and “party performance.” Second, Evans and Kat do not provide theoretical grounding for partisanship, which they claim is strongly exogenous to other variables of interest. Third, there are several specification and testing problems with their structural equation model. We study the properties of the valence model using a vector error correction model of aggregate monthly survey data gathered throughout the New Labour Era. Consistent with theoretical expectations, key valence politics variables constitute a powerful cointegrated system in which the dynamics of partisanship are endogenous to other variables in the system.

Contextual Effects on Individual Voting Behavior: The Case of Taiwan

This study investigates the voting behavior of the Taiwanese electorate in two different levels of election by taking into account two aggregate-level effects, namely the political and economic contextual effects. Using both individual-level and aggregate-level data to study the 2008 legislative election and the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan, this paper not only confirms that the valence politics explanation outperforms other individual-level voting models in the legislative election and in other elections in Taiwan, but also demonstrates how the two contextual effects influence individual voting behavior. Specifically, the political contextual effect had influence on the individual electoral choice in both the 2008 legislative election and the 2012 presidential election, whereas economic contexts only affect voters’ decision when choosing a president. The multilevel analysis reveals that different individual-level voting models could provide partial explanation for voting behavior; however, the findings also show that we may overlook how contextual effects may affect the electoral choice.

“Post-Feminist” Era of Social Investment and Territorial Welfare? Exploring the Issue Salience and Policy Framing of Child Care in U.K. Elections 1983-2011

Earlier work has tended to overlook the formative origins of child care policy in liberal democracies. Accordingly, this study examines mandate-seeking and parties’ envisioning of child care with reference to issue salience and policy framing in party manifestos in U.K. Westminster and regional elections. It reveals a significant increase in issue salience following its emergence as a manifesto issue in the 1980s, thereby confirming it as part of the wider rise of “valence politics.” The framing data reveal that a “post-feminist” discourse of “social investment” has generally displaced the political framing of child care as a gender equality issue. It is argued that this is inherently problematic and reflects parties’ failure to address ongoing gender inequality in the labor market. Notably, the data also illustrate the way devolution is leading to the territorialization of child care in the United Kingdom—no longer solely mandated in Westminster elections, policy is now contingent on the discursive practices of regional party politics and shaped by local socio-economic factors.

Valence politics and voting in the 2012 U.S. presidential election

This paper analyzes voting behavior in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Using national survey data gathered in the 2012 Political Support in America project, the paper investigates the ability of a valence politics model of electoral choice to account for voting in that election. Multivariate analyses reveal that a valence politics model comprised of judgments about party performance on important issues, flexible partisan attachments, and images of the two major presidential candidates outperforms rival models and provides a parsimonious and powerful explanation of decisions voters made. The analyses show that although several factors had significant effects on the vote, the impact of candidate images was especially strong. Although many voters expressed doubts about Obama's competence, even more were unconvinced that Romney offered a viable alternative. Most voters were unenthusiastic about Romney and this cost him dearly at the ballot box.

Electoral discourse and the party politicization of sport in multi-level systems: analysis of UK elections 1945–2011

Mandate and accountability theory state that governments should implement the policies that they promised voters. Accordingly, this study addresses a key lacuna by exploring the role of electoral politics in shaping public policy on sport. Attention centres on issue-salience and policy framing in party manifestos in post-war UK elections. In an era of multi-level governance, the analysis also explores the impact of devolution in the UK where, since 1998, sport policy is mandated in four electoral systems in place of earlier, single state-wide ballots. The findings reveal that there has been a sharp increase in issue-salience over recent decades – thereby confirming the party politicization of sport as part of the wider rise of ‘valence politics’. They also show how parties increasingly frame sport proposals to achieve non-sport aims such as promoting social welfare and boosting international standing. Notably, the data underline the territorialization of sport policy following the UK’s move to quasi-federalism – as policy framing is now contingent on ‘regional’ socio-historical factors and party politics, including nation – building by civic nationalist parties.

Mixed-methods analysis of political parties׳ manifesto discourse on rail transport policy: Westminster, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections 1945–2011

This study addresses a key lacuna by exploring the role of electoral politics in shaping public policy on rail transport in (quasi-)federal systems of governance. Attention centres on issue-salience and policy framing in party manifestos in state-wide and regional elections. The findings reveal a significant rise in issue-salience in parties׳ Westminster election programmes; with right- and left-of-centre parties increasingly advocating mixed economy approaches to rail transport as part of the wider rise of ‘valence politics’. The analysis also reveals how devolution may lead to the territorialisation of rail transport policy. In contrast to parties׳ Westminster programmes, regional manifesto discourse evidences a general rejection of neo-liberalism and stronger support for state control and/or not-for-profit rail operators. Overall, the findings underline the formative nexus between political representation and public policy – and show how, in the wake of state decentralisation, policy framing is contingent on ‘regional’ socio-economic factors and party politics, including state-building by civic nationalist parties.

Are Regions Important in British Elections? Valence Politics and Local Economic Contexts at the 2010 General Election

Pattie C. J., Johnston R. J., Schipper M. and Potts L. Are regions important in British elections? Valence politics and local economic contexts at the 2010 General Election, Regional Studies. Electoral support for major parties is influenced by judgements of economic performance. This helps account for electoral geographies, as economic conditions vary spatially. Past work, concentrating on objective economic indicators or on voters' personal economic evaluations, suggested that contextual effects work most powerfully when very local, suggesting that regional voting trends are artefacts of more intimate geographies. This paper extends that work by examining how voters' decisions are influenced by the economic evaluations of others in their communities and demonstrates that some contextual effects, at least, really are more powerful at the regional than at more local scales.

Who should be chef? The dynamics of valence evaluations across income groups during economic crises

In this paper, we investigate partisan rationalization in valence politics by trying to better specify the direct and indirect effects of the economy on government support. To do so, we examine how income levels moderate the influence of objective economic conditions on perceptions of which party is the best manager of the economy during a period of economic crisis, 2004–2010, in the United Kingdom. We find that low-income voters are more responsive in their assessments of the incumbent Labour government based on unemployment, as are high-income voters in terms of inflation. In addition, high-income voters tend to behave in a manner consistent with partisan rationalization, while low-income voters do not. These conclusions offer important implications for the effectiveness of electoral control of government policy, as well as the quality of representation.