Utility Gain Research Articles

Absorbing Shocks: National Rainy-Day Funds and Cross-Country Transfers in a Fiscal Union

In this paper we investigate the interplay between national rainy-day funds and supra-national transfers in a fiscal union. Given that the EU has established rules limiting deficits, national rainy-day funds could in theory provide a way for countries to obey the rules and use fiscal policy, yet avoid using austerity measures during a recession. The rainy-day fund is self-insurance and we examine the funding of a national rainy-day fund for a country in isolation. We then introduce a fiscal union while allowing member countries to retain some fiscal policy control. We find that moral hazard leads to lower contributions to a rainy day fund with a fiscal union present, and further that the higher the fiscal transfer, the lower will be the contributions to the rainy-day fund. The optimal size of the fiscal union trades-off the ex-post insurance provided by the union and the moral hazard which reduces national ex-ante preparation for stabilization policies. Optimally, the insurance provided by the fiscal union should be lower (1) the more effective is own-fiscal policy; (2) the more the presence of the fiscal union reduces rainy-day fund savings; (3) the lower is the relative probability of recession; and (4) the lower is the utility gain of redistribution in the union. We also find that commitment to a transfer policy is essential. A fiscal union that is prone to break the rules on transfers negatively impacts the ex-ante contributions to individual members’ rainy day funds.

Discrepancies between the Dermatology Life Quality Index and utility scores.

In many jurisdictions, deterioration in quality of life assessed with Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) is used for medical and reimbursement decisions in various dermatological conditions such as psoriasis. However, utility values for health states defined by the DLQI have not yet been evaluated. Therefore, we aim to estimate utilities for different health states described by the ten items of the DLQI. A cross-sectional survey was performed in a convenience sample of the general population. Seven DLQI health states with total scores of 6, 11 and 16 (3-3 and 1 states, respectively) were developed. All of them were different from each other in the number of affected items and severity levels of impairment. The 10-year time trade-off method was used to value health states. Mean utilities elicited by the respondents (n=308) for the three 6-, three 11- and one 16-point DLQI health states were 0.62-0.75, 0.59-0.66, and 0.56, respectively. In half of the six pairwise comparisons, where health states with the same total DLQI score were compared, significant difference between utilities was found. In eight out of the 15 comparisons between health states with different DLQI scores, utilities were not significantly different. Utility values for health states with identical DLQI total score may significantly vary. This result might be generalisable to various patient populations, in which the DLQI is used; nevertheless, further research is needed. The discrepancies between DLQI scores and utilities might have an impact on medical and reimbursement decisions as they make the utility gain from treatment uncertain.

Economic value of treating lumbar disc herniation in Brazil.

Lumbar discectomy is one of the most common surgical spine procedures. In order to understand the value of this surgical care, it is important to understand the costs to the health care system and patient for good results. The objective of this study was to evaluate for the first time the cost-effectiveness of spine surgery in Latin America for lumbar discectomy in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for patients in Brazil. The authors performed a prospective cohort study involving 143 consecutive patients who underwent open discectomy for lumbar disc herniation (LDH). Patient-reported outcomes were assessed utilizing the SF-6D, which is derived from a 12-month variation of the SF-36. Direct medical costs included medical reimbursement, costs of hospital care, and overall resource consumption. Disability losses were considered indirect costs. A 4-year horizon with 3% discounting was applied to health-utilities estimates. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying utility gain by 20%. The costs were expressed in Reais (R$) and US dollars ($), applying an exchange rate of 2.4:1 (the rate at the time of manuscript preparation). The direct and indirect costs of open lumbar discectomy were estimated at an average of R$3426.72 ($1427.80) and R$2027.67 ($844.86), respectively. The mean total cost of treatment was estimated at R$5454.40 ($2272.66) (SD R$2709.17 [$1128.82]). The SF-6D utility gain was 0.044 (95% CI 0.03197-0.05923, p = 0.017) at 12 months. The 4-year discounted QALY gain was 0.176928. The estimated cost-utility ratio was R$30,828.35 ($12,845.14) per QALY gained. The sensitivity analysis showed a range of R$25,690.29 ($10,714.28) to R$38,535.44 ($16,056.43) per QALY gained. The use of open lumbar discectomy to treat LDH is associated with a significant improvement in patient outcomes as measured by the SF-6D. Open lumbar discectomy performed in the Brazilian supplementary health care system provides a cost-utility ratio of R$30,828.35 ($12,845.14) per QALY. The value of acceptable cost-effectiveness will vary by country and region.

Keep Your Promise: Mechanism Design Against Free-Riding and False-Reporting in Crowdsourcing

Crowdsourcing is an emerging paradigm where users can have their tasks completed by paying fees, or receive rewards for providing service. A critical problem that arises in current crowdsourcing mechanisms is how to ensure that users pay or receive what they deserve. Free-riding and false-reporting may make the system vulnerable to dishonest users. In this paper, we design schemes to tackle these problems, so that each individual in the system is better off being honest and each provider prefers completing the assigned task. We first design a mechanism EFF which eliminates dishonest behavior with the help from a trusted third party for arbitration. We then design another mechanism DFF which, without the help from any third party, discourages dishonest behavior. We also prove that DFF is semi-truthful, which discourages dishonest behavior such as free-riding and false-reporting when the rest of the individuals are honest, while guaranteeing transaction-wise budget-balance and computational efficiency. Performance evaluation shows that within our mechanisms, no user could have a utility gain by unilaterally being dishonest.

Application of environmetrics statistical models and water quality index for groundwater quality characterization of alluvial aquifer of Nalagarh Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India

Evaluation of groundwater quality to ascertain its utility gain extra concern in the present day life. This study was carried out to reveal the various factors responsible for deterioration of water quality using environmetric techniques (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), water quality index (WQI) and conventional graphical representation such as Piper trillinear diagram in the industrial area of Baddi Barotiwala Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh, India. The analysis of parameters like pH, EC, TDS, TH and major ions concentrations such as Ca2+ Mg2+, Na+, K+, HCO3 −, Cl−, SO4 2− and PO4 2− were carried out to assess the source of pollution in the study area. The parameters like Cl−, NO3 − and SO4 2− are within desirable limit as per Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) for drinking and domestic purposes. pH, TH and Mg2+ exceeded the permissible limits at certain sites and about 50 % samples of EC, TDS, Ca2+ and Mg2+ were above the desirable limits which gives us caution. Piper trillinear diagram classified 93.75 and 90.63 % of groundwater samples for both seasons falls in the fields of Ca2+–Mg2+–HCO3 − water type indicating temporary hardness. Results of WQI indicate majority of samples falls in poor to unfit range in both seasons. PCA and CA identifies that the groundwater chemistry were influenced by natural as well as minor anthropogenic activities. Thus, the affirmative solution will be proper groundwater development and management practices through artificial recharge to maintain both quality and quantity.

Quality of life after great saphenous vein ablation in Thai patients with great saphenous vein reflux

To determine the quality of life (QoL) in Thais after intervention for great saphenous vein (GSV) reflux. Patients with Clinical Etiologic Anatomic Pathophysiologic classes 2 and 3 were enrolled in this study. QoL was measured using the EuroQol descriptive system (EQ-5D) questionnaire, and patients chose to receive either endovenous treatment or surgery after consulting with their surgeons. The QoL before the intervention, at 1 week, and at 1 month after the intervention were evaluated. Patients who reported "no problem" in each domain of the EQ-5D questionnaire before and 1 month after the intervention were compared. Utility gain was estimated from the questionnaire and compared between clinical classes. The proportion of worsening QoL at 1 week after the intervention was compared between patients receiving endovenous procedures and surgery. A total of 83 patients-56 received endovenous procedures [23 received ultrasound-guided foam sclerotherapy (UGFS) and 33 received radiofrequency ablation (RFA)] and 27 received surgery-were enrolled. QoLs were significantly better in all domains after the intervention: pain/discomfort (58%), mobility (42%), anxiety/depression (38%), usual activities (19%), and self-care (9%). Utility gain was 0.255 (95% confidence interval: 0.197-0.313) and higher in class 3. At 1 week after the intervention, surgery had significantly higher patients with worse mobility scores. Among endovenous procedures, UGFS had higher patients with worse pain/discomfort scores than RFA at 1 week after the intervention (16% vs. 0%, p=0.025). GSV ablation for GSV reflux in Thai patients with CEAP C2 and C3 categories significantly improves both physical and mental QoL; patients who received endovenous procedures were found to have better early physical QoL.

Obtaining a Potential Game Through Pricing, to Achieve Optimal Resource Management in Non-cooperative Cognitive Radio Networks

Optimal resource management in a cognitive radio network has been studied using the game theory. Based on personal interests, users select their own desired utility function and compete for channel and power selection. This non-cooperative approach is controlled through an appropriate pricing method. We have shown that if the utility function in a cooperative potential game is used as the pricing function in a non-cooperative network, the game governing the non-cooperative network will also become potential and will thus converge to Nash equilibrium. The existence of selfish users will cause the network to be unstable, the one which has presumptively been designed with users' cooperation. Besides, it decreases resource utilization gain. Using the recommended pricing has been shown to equilibrate the network. The equilibrium points also enjoy some optimality criteria such as Pareto optimality. By conducting simulations and studying parameters like sum-rate of network and its total interference, it is shown that resource utilization will also approaches to optimal states.

Measuring utilities of severe facial disfigurement and composite tissue allotransplantation of the face in patients with severe face and neck burns from the perspectives of the general public, medical experts and patients

PurposeIn an otherwise healthy patient with severe facial disfigurement secondary to burns, composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) results in life-long immunosuppressive therapy and its associated risk. In this study, we assess the net gain of CTA of face (in terms of utilities) from the perspectives of patient, general public and medical expert, in comparison to the risks. MethodsUsing the standard gamble (SG) and time-trade off (TTO) techniques, utilities were obtained from members of general public, patients with facial burns, and medical experts (n=25 for each group). The gain (or loss) in utility and quality adjusted life years (QALY) were estimated using face-to-face interviews. A sensitivity analysis using variable life expectancy was conducted. ResultsFrom the patient perspective, severe facial burn was associated with a health utility value of 0.53, and 27.1 QALYs as calculated by SG, and a health utility value of 0.57, and 28.9 QALYs as calculated by TTO. In comparison, CTA of the face was associated with a health utility value of 0.64, and 32.3 QALYs (or 18.2 QALYs years per sensitivity analysis) as calculated by SG, and a health utility value of 0.67, and 34.1 QALYs (or 19.2QALYs per sensitivity analysis) as calculated by TTO. However, a loss of 8.9 QALYs (by SG method) to 9.5 QALYs (by TTO method) was observed when the life expectancy was decreased in the sensitivity analysis. Similar results were obtained from the general population and medical experts perspectives. ConclusionWe found that severe facial disfigurement is associated with a significant reduction in the health-related quality of life, and CTA has the potential to improve this. Further, we found that a trade-off exists between the life expectancy and gain in the QALYs, i.e. if life expectancy following CTA of face is reduced, the gain in QALY is also diminished. This trade-off needs to be validated in future studies.

Economic Evaluation of Lumbar Disc Herniation Surgery in Brazilian Health

Introduction Lumbar discectomy is one of the most common surgical procedures, with success rates greater than 80%. To better understand the meaning of a good outcome in lumbar disc herniation treatment, it is important to know how much the health care system or the patient need to pay to achieve a good result. The cost–utility studies are useful to evaluate the value of health care interventions. The objective of this study was to evaluate for the first time the cost-effectiveness of spine surgery in Latin America for lumbar discectomy in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained in Brazil. Patients and Methods Costs of medical treatment were recorded in 143 consecutive patients who underwent open discectomy for lumbar disc herniation. Direct medical costs comprised medical reimbursement and costs of hospitalization. Indirect costs were considered the disability losses. Utilities were estimated using SF-6D–derived utilities from a 12-month variation in SF-36. A 4-year horizon with 3% discounting was applied to health utilities estimates. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying utility gain by 20%. The costs were expressed in Reais (R$) and American Dollars ($), at an exchange rate of 2.4:1. Results Direct and indirect costs of open discectomy were estimated at an average of R$ 3.426,72 ($ 1,427.80) and R$ 2.027,67 ($ 844.86), respectively. The mean total cost of treatment was estimated at R$ 5.454,40 ($ 2,272.66) (± R$ 2.709,17/$ 1,128.82) The SF-6D utility gain was 0.0456 (95% CI: 0.03197–0.05923, p = 0.017) at 12 months. The 4-year discounted QALY gain was 0.176928. The estimated cost-utility ratio was R$ 30.828,35 ($ 12,845.14) per QALY gained. The sensitivity analysis showed a range of R$ 25.690,29 ($ 10,714.28)–R$ 38.535,44 ($ 16,056.43) per QALY gained. Conclusion Open discectomy is associated with a significant improvement in health utilities as measured by SF-6D. Open discectomy performed in the Brazilian Supplementary Health System provides a cost–utility ratio of R$ 30.828,35 ($ 12,845.14) per 1 quality-adjusted life year.

Effect of browse plant foliage supplementation on the performance of buckling goats fed threshed sorghum top basal diet.

The effect of browse plants (Piliostigma thonningii, Daniellia oliveri, Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Annona senegalensis) supplementation on nutrient intake, digestibility, nutritive value and N utilization and growth performance of buckling goats fed threshed sorghum top (TST) was investigated using 24 Red Sokoto goats (9.0 ± 0.25 kg) body weight (BW) which were randomly assigned to one of the six diets in a completely random design. Intakes of dry matter (DM) and nutrients, feed conversion ratio, digestibility of nutrients except for neutral detergent fibre (NDF) and acid detergent fibre (ADF), digestible organic matter (DOM), digestible crude protein (DCP), energy concentration, N utilization and average daily gain were superior (P < 0.05) in TST-supplemented diets compared to sole TST diet. Among the supplemental fodders, intakes of forage, DM, condensed tannins and most of the nutrients; digestibility of DM, crude protein (CP) and non-fibre carbohydrate, DOM and DCP; and N absorbed, balance and retention were greater (P < 0.05) in A. africana relative to the other fodders. Results indicate that the entire browse fodders are good supplements to low quality TST, though A. africana appears to have a better nutritive value.

Bayesian-based preference prediction in bilateral multi-issue negotiation between intelligent agents

Agent negotiation is a form of decision making where two or more agents jointly search for a mutually agreed solution to a certain problem. In multi-issue negotiation, with information available about the agents’ preferences, a negotiation may result in a mutually beneficial agreement. In a competitive negotiation environment, however, self-interested agents may not be willing to reveal their preferences, and this can increase the difficulty of negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a Bayesian-based approach which can help an agent to predict its opponent’s preference in bilateral multi-issue negotiation. The proposed approach employs Bayesian theory to analyse the opponent’s historical offers and to approximately predict the opponent’s preference over negotiation issues. A counter-offer proposition algorithm is also integrated into the prediction approach to help agents to propose mutually beneficial offers based on the prediction results. Experimental results indicate good performance of the proposed approach in terms of utility gain and negotiation efficiency.

Does arthroscopic subacromial decompression improve quality of life.

There has been a significant rise in the volume of subacromial decompression surgery performed in the UK. This study aimed to determine whether arthroscopic subacromial decompression improves health related quality of life in a cost effective manner. Patients undergoing arthroscopic subacromial decompression surgery for impingement were enrolled between 2012 and 2014. The Oxford shoulder score and the EQ-5D™ instruments were completed prior to and following surgery. A cost-utility analysis was performed. Eighty-three patients were eligible for the study with a mean follow-up duration of 15 months (range: 4-27 months). The mean Oxford shoulder score improved by 13 points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11-15 points). The mean health utility gain extrapolated from the EQ-5D™ questionnaire improved by 0.23 (95% CI: 0.16-0.30), translating to a minimum cost per QALY of £5,683. Subacromial decompression leads to significant improvement in function and quality of life in a cost effective manner. This provides justification for its ongoing practice by appropriately trained shoulder surgeons in correctly selected patients.

Development of recursive decision making model in bilateral construction procurement negotiation

Abstract Price negotiation in construction procurement is a form of decision making where contractor and supplier jointly search for a mutually agreed solution. In price negotiation, with information available about the agent's preferences, a negotiation may result in a mutually beneficial agreement. However, self-interested agents may not be willing to reveal their preferences, and this can increase the difficulty of negotiating a beneficial agreement. In order to overcome this problem, this paper proposes a Bayesian-based approach which can help an agent to predict its opponent's preference in bilateral negotiation. The proposed approach employs Bayesian theory to analyze the opponent's historical offers and to approximately predict the opponent's preference over negotiation issue. A Nash equilibrium algorithm is also integrated into the prediction approach to help agents on how to propose beneficial offers based on the prediction results. Validation results indicate good performance of the proposed approach in terms of utility gain and negotiation efficiency.

Formal and Real Power in General Equilibrium

We integrate individual power in groups into general equilibrium models with endogenous group formation. We distinguish between formal power (the say in group decisions) and real power (utility gain from being in groups). Their values will be determined as part of the equilibrium. We find that higher formal power does not necessarily translate into higher equilibrium utility or higher real power. One reason is that induced price changes may offset the group member’s increased influence. A second reason is that the group may dissolve when a group member gains too much influence, because other members can exercise the option to leave. We also show that maximal real power can be compatible with Pareto efficiency. We further identify circumstances when changes of formal power in one group do not impact on other groups. Finally, we establish existence of competitive equilibria, including equilibria where some individual enjoys real power.

Love Actually? Dissecting the Marriage–Happiness Relationship

Using theoretical concepts based on identity economics, the present paper empirically tests the idea that adherence to social norms to get married can provide an additional utility gain from marriage. Norms to get married should be stronger among more traditionalist individuals, so they should put more emphasis on the mere fact of getting married and put less emphasis on match quality. In the empirical analysis, we used the East Asian Social Survey to estimate and compare both OLS and instrumental variables results. In line with the theoretical predictions, there seems to be an identity‐based happiness gain from marriage for traditionalist individuals. These findings can be interpreted as evidence for identity‐based utility effects from marriage. The results also show important differences between OLS and instrumental variables results, confirming the importance of addressing endogeneity properly.

Utilization Improvement of Transformers Using Demand Response

Due to load growth, aging infrastructure, and a competitive environment, innovative solutions are required by electrical utilities to enhance the utilization of transformers which are cost intensive. This paper proposes a demand response optimization model based on transformer hottest-spot temperature. The optimization model quantifies the improvement of transformer utilization through DR. The proposed model is applied to a typical Finnish residential primary and secondary distribution transformers for case studies of load with and without DR. The results show that the loading on the transformers can be significantly increased without sacrificing the life of transformers. The gain in utilization depends on the DR capability of the load. Significant monetary benefits can be achieved with the deployment of the proposed model in a real system.

Dynamic resource allocation based on service time prediction for device‐to‐device communication underlaying cellular networks

This work studies the dynamic resource allocation for device-to-device communication and proposes a service time prediction-based dynamic resource allocation mechanism for a cellular system. The proposed allocation mechanism introduces the concept of ‘utility’ as a metric to reflect the quality of experience of users with different service requirements, and takes into account service time prediction in spectral resource allocation. Specifically, it enables a base station to predict the service time of a new user and the remaining service time of existing users in the system, and takes into account the predicted service time and remaining service time in calculating the effective utility gain caused by the arrival of a new user. Based on the calculated effective utility gain, the base station will select the physical resource block (PRB) with the largest effective utility gain every time it allocates a PRB to the new user. Simulation results show that the proposed dynamic allocation mechanism can significantly improve the system performance in terms of the overall average utility and the number of users successfully admitted to the system.

Conservative forgetful scholars: How people learn causal structure through sequences of interventions.

Interacting with a system is key to uncovering its causal structure. A computational framework for interventional causal learning has been developed over the last decade, but how real causal learners might achieve or approximate the computations entailed by this framework is still poorly understood. Here we describe an interactive computer task in which participants were incentivized to learn the structure of probabilistic causal systems through free selection of multiple interventions. We develop models of participants' intervention choices and online structure judgments, using expected utility gain, probability gain, and information gain and introducing plausible memory and processing constraints. We find that successful participants are best described by a model that acts to maximize information (rather than expected score or probability of being correct); that forgets much of the evidence received in earlier trials; but that mitigates this by being conservative, preferring structures consistent with earlier stated beliefs. We explore 2 heuristics that partly explain how participants might be approximating these models without explicitly representing or updating a hypothesis space.

Endogenous Dynamics of Institutional Change

A parsimonious set of mechanisms explains how and under which conditions behavioral deviations build into cascades that reshape institutional frameworks from the bottom up. Specifically, we argue that endogenous institutional change emerges from an interplay between three factors: the utility gain agents associate with decoupling from institutional equilibria, positive externalities derived from similar decoupling among one’s neighbors, and accommodation by state actors. Where endogenous institutional change driven by societal action is sufficiently robust, it can induce political actors to accommodate and eventually to legitimize institutional innovations from below.

Automated negotiation with behaviour prediction

The proliferation of web technologies has made it increasingly important to make the traditional negotiation pricing mechanism automated and intelligent. Negotiation is although a complex activity to automate without human intervention but the software agents when enhanced with learning techniques can better simulate the human intelligence and increase the profits of their owners. Prediction of partner's behaviour in negotiation will not only improve the utility gain for the adaptive negotiation agent but also achieve the agreement much quicker. The basic concept is that the information about negotiators, their individual actions and dynamics can be used by software agents who are equipped with adaptive capabilities so that they can learn from past negotiations and provide assistance for selection of appropriate negotiation tactics. In this paper an automated negotiation system has been proposed which is capable of predicting the strategy and the preferences of the opponent.