Use Of Delphi Method Research Articles

Research on Evaluation of Tourism Live Marketing Effect

With the development of Internet and tourism industry, live tourism marketing has gradually become an important way of tourism marketing. Among them, tourism live marketing belongs to one of the big categories of live marketing. This paper first determines the evaluation index through the analysis of the influencing factors of live marketing, and further determines the final evaluation index through the use of Delphi method and network research. Then the weights of the evaluation index system are determined by AHP. Finally, the rationality of this evaluation index system is verified through the calculation and comparison of specific cases and evaluation index system.

Town Centricity Model – Delimiting the center of Athens, Greece

Town centres have been analysed by researchers according to the specific parameters of their studies such as concentration cores of economic activity or on the basis of social and demographic attributes, diversity of land uses, etc. However, it is the synthesis of all centre’s characteristics that most completely define it. Moreover, in Greece, there is no sufficient statistical information available concerning town centres and it is necessary to create such data in order to improve their monitoring, control and planning. In order to apply this information, the boundary of town centre has to be set. This paper envisages in the definition of a town centre, the creation of a “Town Centricity Model” and the development and implementation of a consistent methodology resulting to its delimitation. After survey, analysis and evaluation of characteristics serving as centrality estimators, the most critical are deployed and the methodology is implemented. The latter concerns the design and creation of a geodatabase in a Geographic Information System (GIS) with features and attributes set to the spatial reference unit of a building block. The use of both vector and raster spatial analyses are addressed, the most representative qualitative methods are surveyed and weighting factors with the use of Delphi method are assigned. The pilot study of the aforementioned methodology is implemented in a case study area located in the municipality of Athens in Greece, resulting to the delimitation of its centre. The results are presented and ongoing future research is further discussed.

Risk Identification and Weight Analysis of Meteorological Disasters on Ancient Buildings

Meteorological disasters impose significant challenges on protection of ancient buildings. By use of Delphi method and Multi-subject research including architecture, meteorology and archaeology, this work identifies major meteorological disasters on ancient buildings. The hierarchical model of risk influential factors is established. It contains four first-grade factors such as wind, flood, lightning and snow disaster, ten second-grade factors and twenty third-grade factors. Then, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was utilized to calculate weight of those factors. The result showed that lightning disasters had largest threat on ancient buildings among the four major kinds of meteorological disasters. Its weight was the highest of 0.383, followed by that of flood and wind disasters with weight of 0.31 and 0.22 respectively. Snow disasters had the smallest weight of 0.09. Lightning protection measures have significant influence on vulnerability of ancient buildings and on lightning disaster risks. So, to protect ancient buildings against meteorological disasters, besides characteristics of the disasters themselves, all the mentioned factors such as architectural structure, building types and environment should be taken into consideration. Specific protection strategies are then implemented according to weights of different factors.

The Use of Delphi Method and Analytical Hierarchy Process in the Establishment of Assessment Tools in Premature Ejaculation: The Scoring System for Premature Ejaculation Treatment Outcomes.

There is a lack of objective tools to comprehensively evaluate premature ejaculation (PE) treatment results clinically. We aimed to describe the development of a novel scoring system for PE treatment results as an example of using the Delphi method and an analytical hierarchy process for complex decision-making in the field of sexual medicine. A Delphi question survey was adopted to collect expert opinions from 47 Chinese specialists in andrology/urology on the assessment of PE treatment outcomes based on four primary properties, that is, the improvement in intravaginal ejaculation latency time, a couple’s mental status, the ability to control ejaculation, and sexual intercourse satisfaction. Different weights on those primary properties were assigned to create a mathematical hierarchy matrix and then perform an analysis. The scores were assigned according to the calculated weights. The ratio among the combined weights of the four primary properties was 1:3:2:3. The total numerical score was 36. Scores above 27, between 26 and 18, and below 17 indicated significant improvement, moderate improvement, and no improvement in PE, respectively, with selected treatments. The scoring system with 36 points can be used by physicians, patients, and their sexual partners to comprehensively and objectively assess quantitative PE treatment results.

Development of the First Value Assessment Index System for Off-Label Use of Antineoplastic Agents in China: A Delphi Study.

ObjectiveTo develop the first value assessment index system for off-label use of antineoplastic agents in China.MethodsA modified two-round Delphi method was employed to establish consensus within a field to reach agreement via a questionnaire or doing interview among a multidisciplinary panel of experts by collecting their feedback to inform the next round, exchanging their individual knowledge, experience, and opinions anonymously, and resolving uncertainties.ResultsExpert’s positive coefficient was 94.74% in the first round and 100.00% in the second round. In the first round, expert’s authority coefficient for a majority of 61 indicators was ≥ 0.80 (85.2%, ranging from 0.70 to 0.89, mean=0.84) and coefficient of variation for all the 61 indicators was ≥ 22% (ranging from 11.67% to 21.74%, mean=17.4%). In two rounds, the mean expert’s authority coefficient raised to 0.85 (ranging from 0.75 to 0.90), and coefficient of variation for all indicators was < 20% (ranging from 10.49% to 19.71%, mean=15.97%). The P-values of Kendall’s W test were all < 0.001 for each round. At the end of two rounds, W-value for concordance was 0.395 (χ2=347.494, P<0.0001). The final value assessment index system comprised of eight domains, 21 subdomains, and 56 indicators. The weight and combination weight of each domain were 0.4211 for therapeutic value, 0.1678 for source and type of evidence, 0.0961 for public feedback/comments, 0.0894 for novelty in drug discovery, 0.0689 for grading of evidence recommendation, 0.0578 for consistency of evidence results, 0.0561 for disease burden, and 0.0428 for ratio of composition/integration.ConclusionUse of Delphi method to develop the proposed value assessment index system was found scientific and credible. This value assessment index system is highly appropriate for off-label use of antineoplastic agents in China.

A Proposed Perspective for Developing Science Curriculum for the Upper Primary Grades in Accordance to Saudi Arabia's Vision for 2030: An Analytical and Descriptive Study according to Delphi Method

Saudi Arabia's Vision for 2030 in development is exceedingly concerned with curriculum development. It believes that the current curriculum does no longer support the students' preparation for both life and work. Therefore, the present study aimed to reach a consensus by a set of educational experts on the importance of providing the science curriculum for the fifth and sixth primary grades with a content that can help achieve the requirements of the Kingdom's Vision for 2030 in development. In addition, it aimed to study what perceptions these educational experts have towards developing the science curriculum that can better achieve this vision. The study followed the descriptive approach and the use of Delphi method. It was applied to a group of (28) educational experts over three rounds that started on October 8, and ended on November 9, 2017. Findings indicated that the provision degree of the requirements of Saudi Arabia's Vision for 2030 in development in the science curriculum for the upper primary grades was too weak. Responses of the educational experts concerning developing the science curriculum to achieve the requirements of this vision, at the end of the third round, ranged between strongly agree and agree. At the end, a perspective for the development of the science curriculum was proposed depending on the viewpoints of the educational experts who participated in the present study.Keywords: Saudi Arabia's Vision for 2030, development of science curriculum, primary grades.

Triplex modeling of the political messages consumer behavior in social networks

AbstractPurposeThis paper explores a triplex model of the political messages consumer behavior in social networks, combining the use of Delphi method, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and an artificial neural network (ANN).Design/methodology/approachThe study has 3 phases. In the first phase, the Delphi method is employed, and 24 motivations for the forwarding a political message with a social media are identified; these motivations are used to develop the model in the second phase. Finally, in the last phase, an ANN is used to rank the motivations to determine their priority.FindingsThe EFA model explored includes 5 factors that have a positive effect on the level of political messages forwarding with a social network. These are Public view, Performance of Party, Disclosure, Interests and Destruction. Results from the use of an ANN indicate that the main variables in political messages forwarding are showing the relative candidate commitment to ethics (Commitment to ethics) and showing the appropriate scientific level of the relative candidate (Appropriate scientific level). From the results of the EFA model, it is clear these 2 variables are components of the factor of the Public view.Practical implicationsPolitical marketer, politicians, and political analyst can use our findings and model to satisfy their political messages consumer' needs and enhance their vote market and electoral success. The public view in the political message gets a very important role in its forwarding. They should show in their political messages that the relative candidate has commitment to ethics and has appropriate scientific level. They must create more message with this studies priorities and avoid produce the low priority characteristics of message of this study.Originality/valueFor the first time, the main contribution of this study is to shed light on how political messages in social network is forwarded and how political messages consumers think about political messages in the social network?

Computing a ground appropriateness index for route selection in permafrost regions

Abstract The reasonable calculation of ground appropriateness index in permafrost region is the precondition of highway route design in permafrost region. The theory of knowledge base and fuzzy mathematics are applied, and the damage effect of permafrost is considered in the paper. Based on the idea of protecting permafrost the calculation method of ground appropriateness index is put forward. Firstly, based on the actual environment conditions, the paper determines the factors affecting the road layout in permafrost areas by qualitative and quantitative analysis, including the annual slope, the average annual ground temperature of permafrost, the amount of ice in frozen soil, and the interference engineering. Secondly, based on the knowledge base theory and the use of Delphi method, the paper establishes the knowledge base, the rule base of the permafrost region and inference mechanism. The method of selecting the road in permafrost region is completed and realized by using the software platform. Thirdly, taking the Tuotuo River to Kaixin Mountain section of permafrost region as an example, the application of the method is studied by using an ArcGIS platform. Results show that the route plan determined by the method of selecting the road in permafrost region can avoid the high temperature and high ice content area, conform the terrain changes and evade the heat disturbance among the existing projects. A reasonable route plan can be achieved, and it can provide the basis for the next engineering construction.

The Use of Delphi method as a Tool to improve Tourism Strategy in Egypt

تعرض هذه الورقة نتائج دراسة استقصائية لمنهجية دلفي من ثلاث دورات أجريت عن طريق رأي الخبراء بشأن استراتيجية السياحة المصرية. ويتم ذلک عن طريق قياس مدى فاعلية الاستراتيجية المتجددة للسياحة 2013-2020 في مصر. ولتحقيق هذا الغرض، استخدمت طريقة دلفي. ولقد أظهرت نتائج استطلاع الخبراء اتفاقا کبيرا على کفاءة هذه العناصر في الاستراتيجية المتجددة للسياحة. ومع ذلک، أشاروا إلى نقص في عروض الأسواق السياحية المتخصصة ، والمشاکل المتعلقة بالتنفيذ والإبتکار بالنسبة للمنتجات / الخدمات / التکنولوجيات المبتکرة، ونقص استراتيجيات تدريب العمالة وتنمية المهارات. وبالإضافة إلى ذلک، حدد البحث تدابير للتنفيذ کتبني نظام تعليمي يتوافق مع احتياجات صناعة السياحة، وتعزيز دعم السلطات المحلية والإقليمية والدولية، وتطوير البنية الأساسية، بما في ذلک البنية الأساسية للنقل.

Islamic-Iranian Regionalization of Rapoport’s Environmental Behaviour Study (EBS) Model for Home Space Design

This study aims to present an adapted model of Rapoport’s environmental-behavioural study model for home interior spaces design according to family relations in Islam. Suggested model is designed in regards to Islamic content in the boundaries of Islamic-Iranian concept. The research results were confirmed by the use of Delphi Method. Proficiency examination of this model, introduced as an educational tool of home space design model, was carried out through two undergraduate student groups of analyse and control. Results show that the analysed group designed their home space system in relevant to Islamic thought by high percentage, whereas no much difference is noticeable in creativity and aesthetic aspects of both examined groupsKeywords: Environmental Behaviour Studies; Home Space Design Model; Design Education; Islam2398-4295 © 2017 The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning &amp; Surveying, UniversitiTeknologi MARA, Malaysia.

Study on the construction of training evaluation system of critical care nurses in Chongqing

Objective To Establish an evaluation index system of critical care nurses training in Chongqing. Methods A panel of experts was formed with 20 experts from related fields. By the use of Delphi method, we designed a questionnaire survey and took two rounds of expert consultation and revision, screening the intensive care nurse training evaluation index. SPSS 17.0 statistical software was used to assess the experts involved in the study and to determine the weight of indicators at all levels. Results In the course of the investigation, the experts participating in the initiative was very high, and the authority coefficient (Cr) was 0.896. The training evaluation system of critical care nurses in Chongqing was initially identified, including 3 first-level indicators, 7 second-level indicators 7, 21 third-level indicators. Conclusion The preliminary construction of critical care nurse training evaluation system in Chongqing can promote the ICU specialist nurse training effect and guarantee the training quality, and at the same time it provides some reference for the training and evaluation of the health administrative department. Key words: Critical care medicine; Specialist nurses training; Evaluation index system; Delphi method

Islamic-iranian Regionalization of Rapoport's Environmental Behaviour Study (EBS) Model for Home Space Design

This study aims to present an adapted model of Rapoport's environmental-behavioural study model for home interior spaces design according to family relations in Islam. Suggested model is designed in regards to Islamic content in the boundaries of Islamic-Iranian concept. The research results were confirmed by the use of Delphi Method. Proficiency examination of this model, introduced as an educational tool of home space design model, was carried out through two undergraduate student groups of analyse and control. Results show that the analysed group designed their home space system in relevant to Islamic thought by high percentage, whereas no much difference is noticeable in creativity and aesthetic aspects of both examined groups.

APPLICATION OF DELPHI METHOD IN PRIORITIZATION OF CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS OF TQM FOR THE INDONESIA’S OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

The study describes the use of the policy Delphi method in building consensus for the prioritization of critical success factors of TQM (CSFs of TQM). The use of multi attribute decision analysis for supporting the qualitative data analysis (multifactor evaluation process, analytic hierarchy process, and NVivo) has been considered the foremost technique for examining the manages needs and the weightings of preferences from the panel of managers for each CSFs of TQM in the most objective way available. Two round of Delphi surveys were conducted. A significant consensus on the weighted evaluation of the six CSFs of TQM and the consistency ratio were obtained from twenty managers. The results vividly reveal that the Delphi method is a powerful and appropriate technique for deriving objective opinions in a rather subjective area such as the multi-attribute model for the prioritization of the CSFs of TQM. The results of qualitative data analysis (using MFEP) indicate that training to improve products/services provides the first priority (the weighted evaluation 0.184; 0.224; and 0.169 for top level managers, middle kevel managers, and low level managers); followed by Quality Improvement, Top Management Commitment, Supplier Involvement, Cross- Functional Relationships among SBUs, and Supervisory Leadership. In addition, the qualitative data analysis (using AHP) also provides a set of sufficiently consistent CSFs of TQM was obtain after the second round of Delphi questionnaire. The result of consistency ratio (CR) shows that the managers had highly satisfactory in assessing the prioritization of CSFs of TQM (CR = 0.0456). Therefore, these CSFs of TQM were supported the results from the quantitative data analysis. Oil and gas managers in Indonesia can use these qualitative data results in concert with other critical quality management practices to help them in there word-class company initiatives. The researcher recommended the use of Delphi method as an objective and rigorous determining consensus. Researchers can also use this method to combine qualitative and quantitative research approaches into mixed methodology or triangulation. Keywords: Delphi Method, Qualitative Data Analysis, Critical Success Factors of TQM, Multifactor Evaluation Process, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and NVivo.

Study on the Index System of Urban Rail Transit and Bus Network Integration

At present, the integration of public transport has become an important measure of the development of urban public transport system. To achieve this goal, we must have a systematic, holistic, comprehensive understanding and evaluation of public transport situation. From planning and construction coordination, operational coordination and institutional coordination, a preliminary evaluation index system is established with APH. Then the final evaluation index is determined by the use of Delphi method. With the comparison of the evaluation index value and the evaluation standards, the degree of the coordination of urban rail transit and bus network is evaluated.

Study on Nursing Clinical Teachers' Comprehensive Quality Evaluation Model on the Basis of Fuzzy Mathematics

In this study, we study on the nursing clinical teachers' comprehensive quality evaluation model on the basis of fuzzy mathematics. First, it obtains the nursing clinical teachers' comprehensive quality evaluation index framework by making use of Delphi method. Then, it constructs the comprehensive quality evaluation hierarchy model by applying the analytic hierarchy process, to obtain the weight for each index, based on which to establish fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, thus acquiring new method for nursing clinical teachers' comprehensive quality evaluation. Examples have proven the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

High Priority Research Needs for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Identification of unanswered research questions about the management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is necessary to focus future research endeavors. We developed a process for elucidating the highest priority research questions on GDM. Using a systematic review on GDM as a starting point, we developed an eight-step process: (1) identification of research gaps, (2) feedback from the review's authors, (3) translation of gaps into researchable questions using population, intervention, comparators, outcomes, setting (PICOS) framework, (4) local institutions' stakeholders' refinement of research questions, (5) national stakeholders' use of Delphi method to develop consensus on the importance of research questions, (6) prioritization of outcomes, (7) conceptual framework, and (8) evaluation. We identified 15 high priority research questions for GDM. The research questions focused on medication management of GDM (e.g., various oral agents vs. insulin), delivery management for women with GDM (e.g., induction vs. expectant management), and identification of risk factors for, prevention of, and screening for type 2 diabetes in women with prior GDM. Stakeholders rated the development of chronic diseases in offspring, cesarean delivery, and birth trauma as high priority outcomes to measure in future studies. We developed an eight-step process using a multidisciplinary group of stakeholders to identify 15 research questions of high clinical importance. Researchers, policymakers, and funders can use this list to direct research efforts and resources to the highest priority areas to improve care for women with GDM.

Integrating group Delphi, analytic hierarchy process and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for a climate warning scenario

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the common use of Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps (DFCM) for development of future scenarios in correlation with climate warnings.Design/methodology/approach – The developed global model is based on a cognitive map composed of 28 factors. Among these factors two are independent, namely human consciousness and living standard. These two factors represent the most important levers of control within the designed model. Two approaches to scenario development have been applied, so that the comparison of the results between conventional fuzzy method and dynamic fuzzy method could give some further insights about global climate development and sustainability, as well as about differences between the two approaches.Findings – Results of the first model (no‐time‐delay in cause‐effect relation) show that in general there is no absolute convergence to a single vector C(tn+1) for various initial values for C(0). But an ...