Use Of Bayesian Inference Research Articles

Estimation of a Bernouilli parameter: A normative approach to replace the Bayesian one

The paper deals with the problem of the estimation of an unknown probability from a finite number of experiments. We propose a normative (axiomatic) solution that restricts the class of admissible estimators to a one-parameter family. Moreover this solution coincides with the one obtained from Bayes theory with a β prior. Thus our results can be interpreted as a justification for the use of Bayesian inference with a β prior.

Use of Bayesian inference in decision making in an institution or residential treatment center, a clinical note.

This clinical note or reminder indicates how Bayesian inference can aid decision making in an institution. Key references are given.

Design Studies for Climatological Measurements of Heat Storage

Abstract Objective analysis of large-scale simulated anomalies is used to estimate statistically the effectiveness of different sampling arrays. The methodology, which includes a new use of Bayesian inference, is of fairly general applicability, but is illustrated by a specific requirement to measure five-year changes in the North Atlantic to an accuracy equivalent to ±10 W m−2. The numerical procedure require 1) specification of an overall measure of accuracy on an appropriate resolution, 2) a reference field approximating the long-term mean, 3) an assumed ensemble of large-scale anomalies, 4) the distribution of mesoscale eddy noise as derived from previous analyses of historical data and 5) a set of ship tracks and a sampling, in space and time along them. The numerical output is the expected accuracy and other diagnostic information. The ship tracks and sampling are varied by trial and error until the expected accuracy is within requirements in an economical manner. The study indicates that the optimi...

A Unified Bayesian Approach to Optimal Classification with Discriminant Analysis

In a recent article in this Journal' Cooley has presented an excellent analysis of the use of Bayesian Inference in discriminant analysis. His objective was to classify property-liability (P-L) insurance firms into either a solvent or distressed group based on a number of financial characteristics. The linear discriminant function which maximizes the difference between these two groups means can be written

The Use of Bayesian Inference in the Design of an Endpoint Control System for the Basic Oxygen Steel Furnace

A digital simulation of the basic oxygen steel furnace was previously developed, and its output was compared with the available data taken from the literature. The output concentrations were within 10 percent of the literature data, while the simulated temperature was within 0.5 percent. The simulation is used as an off-line model of the process to design an endpoint control system which makes use of the available feedback from the process. Feedback consists of previously existing instrumentation for effluent gas analysis and an instrument designed for quick carbon analysis. The same instrument, independently conceived by Bethlehem Steel, has been proved effective by them. The control system uses Bayesian inference to evaluate process feedback optimally. Equations have been developed and a computational algorithm designed enabling real-time calculation of the probability of a carbon-temperature state given any control action and imperfect measurements. Because the objective function is almost symmetric and the cost of control is minimal compared to the value of an endpoint state, optimal control drives the expected state vector to the center of the tolerance region.