US Public Opinion Research Articles

Measuring norm pluralism and perceived polarization in US politics.

Recent research has shown how norms shape political and economic decision-making. Much of this work assumes that a single norm influences the behavior of all people, but in fact, many situations are characterized by the existence of competing normative viewpoints. We apply a method for measuring belief in the simultaneous existence of multiple norms. Such multiplicity arises naturally when norms are associated with distinctive groups, and thus political polarization can be characterized, in part, as a product of diverging norms between groups. We thus assess the validity of our measurement technique by testing whether it can recover polarization on seven salient political issues on which US Democrats and Republicans tend to hold different views. We then compare the norms elicited by our method to the norms of Democrats and Republicans elicited in a separate sample using an established and validated-but methodologically less rich-measurement approach. Our study uncovers a wide range of co-existing views between and within political groups. Partisans understand their group's norms and hold personal views that align with them. They can also recognize the diversity and polarization in US public opinion by identifying norms specific to political parties and acknowledging the variety of views within their own parties, which may indicate internal divisions. This research underscores the importance of nuanced approaches to political norms that go beyond party lines. By acknowledging a plurality of views, we can encourage productive discussions and bridge ideological divides.

Contra solidarity: revolution and counterrevolution in the united states and nicaragua

ABSTRACT This article explains how the Contra War was shaped by interaction between revolutionaries and counterrevolutionaries both before and after Nicaragua’s 1979 revolution. In successfully overthrowing the Somoza government, the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) built a multilayered revolutionary coalition out of the fractured Nicaraguan politics created by the Cold War developmental state. In response to the FSLN’s successful solidarity politics, the US government, from the beginning of the revolution, through the Contra War in the 1980s, applied a diverse set of tactics that drew inspiration from the successes of Nicaragua’s revolutionary practice in order to undermine the revolution. This adaptive response helped radicalise Nicaragua’s revolution, widened support for the Contra War, despite adverse US and global public opinion, and made possible the unravelling of the Iran-Contra Affair.

Pop culture resentment: testing existing and alternative measures of white racial attitudes

ABSTRACT Understanding white Americans’ attitudes toward Black Americans is crucial in US public opinion. However, survey measurement of these attitudes is hampered by social desirability bias, low discriminant validity, and the potential for heightened demand characteristics and backlash. I propose a new measure: music genre preference. Consistent preference for genres historically and popularly linked to white culture over those linked to Black culture may partly reflect white Americans’ attitudes toward Black Americans. Using four online surveys comparing the performance of racial resentment, stereotype measures, and genre preference on social desirability, predictive and discriminant validity, and research awareness, I find that genre preference either outperforms or matches the established measures on these criteria. Genre preference thus provides a viable alternative for measuring white Americans’ attitudes toward Black Americans, and potentially other group attitudes in both the United States and other cultures. This also provides an example of sensitive question design using proxies that elicit attitudes without discomforting the survey taker or alerting them to the purpose of the study.

Stability and policy threats: US public opinion after a decade of the Affordable Care Act

AbstractThe Affordable Care Act (ACA) continues to shape US politics at the elite level. We know less about whether this conflict still carries over to the broader public. Moreover, we know little about the degree to which the conflict reaches into its various policies and whether the policy threats to the ACA can affect public opinion. We fielded a large, and demographically diverse survey of US adults using Lucid (N = 6066) from July 8–21, 2020. The survey contained an experiment that introduced the topic to respondents as the 2010 health reform law, the ACA, or Obamacare and at times highlighted the potential undoing of the ACA by the US Supreme Court. Analyses were conducted using Ordinary Least Squares regression. Our findings indicate that perceptions of the ACA differ substantial based on partisanship and racial prejudice. Framing still matters in the minds of Americans and their perception of health reforms in general and its individual components by extending these differences. However, we find only very limited evidence for changes to public attitudes related to the policy threat of the Supreme Court ruling the ACA constitutional in California v. Texas. The ACA remains a political battleground in the minds of Americans. The politics of the ACA continue to be shaped by perceptions of race and partisanship.

Uncooperative leadership: US public opinion and limited commitments to region building

ABSTRACT Some research indicates that regional integration is more likely when power asymmetry exists among neighbouring states. Theoretically, preponderant powers can act as regional leaders because they can promote the development of collective goods that will entice others into partnerships. Other scholars argue that power asymmetry is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for integration. The preponderant power is to be willing to lead efforts. We argue that the US cannot lead North American regional integration when the voting public consumes negative messages concerning its least developed partner, Mexico. Negative portrayals of Mexico, whether justified or not, lower US public support and contribute to limiting the US political capacity to foster region building. The data analysis of a national representative sample (N = 1,133) using an online survey experiment confirms our hypotheses while controlling for various demographic factors and candidate support during the 2016 party election primaries.

US public opinion about reproductive health care in school-based health centers

ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine public support for the provision of seven reproductive health services in school-based health centers, including pregnancy testing, over-the-counter contraceptives, prescription (Rx) contraceptives, sexually transmitted disease testing, sexually transmitted disease treatment, gynecological examinations, sexual violence counseling, and an index measure combining all services. Study designWe administered a large national online survey (N = 4196, response rate 31%) of US adults using Lucid, a large, internet-based, opt-in panel to assess public attitudes about offering sexual and reproductive health services in school-based health centers. We then used t tests and weighted linear regression models to carry out our study objectives. ResultsUnadjusted analysis revealed that 60% of respondents supported the provision of all reproductive health services (combined) at school-based health centers. Regression analysis based on the index measure suggested that individuals identifying as Trump voters (p-value = 0.00) or conservatives (p-value = 0.00) reported the lowest support, while those identifying as liberal (p-value = 0.00) reported the highest support, controlling for demographic and health characteristics. ConclusionsRespondents overwhelmingly support the provision of reproductive health services at school-based health centers, including pregnancy testing, over-the-counter contraceptives, prescription contraceptives, testing and treatment for sexually transmitted infections, and sexual violence counseling. ImplicationsAdolescence is an important stage for sexual maturation, and access to appropriate sexual and reproductive health services can support healthy development into adulthood. Findings suggest that most respondents support the provision of reproductive health services at school-based health centers while there are important factors that influence public support.

Rural Identity and LGBT Public Opinion in the United States.

Opposition to LGBT rights remains a contemporary fixture within the United States in spite of increasingly liberalizing attitudes toward LGBT individuals. In this paper, I argue that a potentially overlooked factor driving this opposition is rural identity-or an individual's psychological attachment to a rural area. Using data from the 2020 ANES, I find that rural identity predicts less favorable estimations of LGBT individuals. Rural identifiers are also less likely to support pro-LGBT policy measures than nonrural identifiers. Nevertheless, I find the magnitude of the effects of rural identity on anti-LGBT views to be surprisingly small. It is also the case that, on average, rural identifiers exhibit net-positive estimations of LGBT individuals and are broadly supportive of LGBT rights, suggesting that elected officials enacting anti-LGBT legislation in rural areas of the United States are potentially out of step with the preferences of their electorate. These findings also have implications for what it means to hold a rural identity beyond a generalized animosity toward urban areas, and for understanding urban-rural divergences in US public opinion on issues such as LGBT rights.

How Race, Resentment, and Ideology Shape Attitudes About Native American Inherent Rights and Policy Issues

What shapes attitudes about Native American policy issues and inherent rights? Race and ethnicity are important in shaping US public opinion, but Native Americans have been almost entirely excluded from this research. We use data from an original survey and focus groups collected from the Reclaiming Native Truth project to examine the factors that shape attitudes toward Native American inherent rights and broader race conscious policy issues. We find high levels of support overall, but several factors influence lower levels of support. Many people have very low factual knowledge about Native American issues and rely heavily on partisan shortcuts in forming opinions, especially for policy issues. Overall, attitudes about inherent rights are less consistent as many people have very little knowledge about them. People of color tend to be more supportive than white people and white people tend to rely more on partisan shortcuts. Specifically, conservative whites are the least supportive across most issues. We also explore the effect of Native American resentment, finding there are people who hold overtly hostile views of Native Americans and are unsupportive of their rights and policies. Our findings contribute to growing literature on Indigenous resentment, settler colonialism and public attitudes toward Indigenous peoples.

The Language of the American Mass Media as an Instrument to Destabilize the Political Regime in Venezuela

The study aims to determine the role of the US media as a destabilizing factor in the contemporary domestic politics of Venezuela, especially in the context of the power crisis of 2013–2019. The study used the methods of data analysis obtained through interviews, discourse analysis, the method of grounded theory, content analysis of selected sources (CNN, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Bloomberg) and event analysis, which made it possible to analyze the most frequently mentioned in the American media developments in the domestic politics of Venezuela for the period 2013–2019. The results of the study reveal the bias of the American media and their dependence on the main US political course towards Venezuela, demonstrate the systematic creation of a negative image of Venezuela in the American media with a focus on the economic crisis and low living standards in the country, and attempts to influence US and international public opinion on the issue of recognizing the illegitimate parallel government of self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó. The practical significance of the work’s findings is the that they can be used in developing a strategy for information interaction between Venezuela and the United States, creating an information security system that accounts for the identified threats and strengthening the regional media of Venezuela.

Shifts in US public opinion favour Taiwan

Headline TAIWAN: Shifting US public opinion favours Taipei

Surveying Public Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care in the United States: Systematic Review

This paper reviews nationally representative public opinion surveys on artificial intelligence (AI) in the United States, with a focus on areas related to health care. The potential health applications of AI continue to gain attention owing to their promise as well as challenges. For AI to fulfill its potential, it must not only be adopted by physicians and health providers but also by patients and other members of the public. This study reviews the existing survey research on the United States' public attitudes toward AI in health care and reveals the challenges and opportunities for more effective and inclusive engagement on the use of AI in health settings. We conducted a systematic review of public opinion surveys, reports, and peer-reviewed journal articles published on Web of Science, PubMed, and Roper iPoll between January 2010 and January 2022. We include studies that are nationally representative US public opinion surveys and include at least one or more questions about attitudes toward AI in health care contexts. Two members of the research team independently screened the included studies. The reviewers screened study titles, abstracts, and methods for Web of Science and PubMed search results. For the Roper iPoll search results, individual survey items were assessed for relevance to the AI health focus, and survey details were screened to determine a nationally representative US sample. We reported the descriptive statistics available for the relevant survey questions. In addition, we performed secondary analyses on 4 data sets to further explore the findings on attitudes across different demographic groups. This review includes 11 nationally representative surveys. The search identified 175 records, 39 of which were assessed for inclusion. Surveys include questions related to familiarity and experience with AI; applications, benefits, and risks of AI in health care settings; the use of AI in disease diagnosis, treatment, and robotic caregiving; and related issues of data privacy and surveillance. Although most Americans have heard of AI, they are less aware of its specific health applications. Americans anticipate that medicine is likely to benefit from advances in AI; however, the anticipated benefits vary depending on the type of application. Specific application goals, such as disease prediction, diagnosis, and treatment, matter for the attitudes toward AI in health care among Americans. Most Americans reported wanting control over their personal health data. The willingness to share personal health information largely depends on the institutional actor collecting the data and the intended use. Americans in general report seeing health care as an area in which AI applications could be particularly beneficial. However, they have substantial levels of concern regarding specific applications, especially those in which AI is involved in decision-making and regarding the privacy of health information.

Palestine and the British Empire in US Political Cartoons, 1917-1919

The article is devoted to the analysis of the process of formation of the image of Palestine and the British Empire at the end of the First World War. On the basis of the materials of American cartoons and periodicals, the main points in the evolution of the attitude of American society to Palestine are considered, the complexities and contradictions in understanding the features of the British Empire are shown. The study of cartoons will help determine the nature of the interaction of textual and visual images in the US media during the discussion of the results of the First World War, the Treaty of Versailles, the League of Nations and the mandate system. Based on the study of cartoons, two stages in the perception of Palestine in the United States are distinguished: 1) “romantic” and 2) “critical”. New images of Palestine, the British colonial empire, and the Middle East first appeared in newspaper articles, and only later in cartoons. The debate between apologetic and critical strands of US public opinion regarding Palestine and the British model of internal security in the colonies became in 1919 one element of a more global debate between Democrats and Republicans about the role of the US in the League of Nations.

Stable Views in a Time of Tumult: Assessing Trends in US Public Opinion, 2007–20

AbstractThe violent conclusion of Trump's 2017–21 presidency has produced sobering reassessments of American democracy. Elected officials' actions necessarily implicate public opinion, but to what extent did Trump's presidency and its anti-democratic efforts reflect shifts in public opinion in prior years? Were there attitudinal changes that served as early-warning signs? We answer those questions via a fifteen-wave, population-based panel spanning 2007 to 2020. Specifically, we track attitudes on system legitimacy and election fairness, assessments of Trump and other politicians, and open-ended explanations of vote choice and party perceptions. Across measures, there was little movement in public opinion foreshadowing Trump's norm-upending presidency, though levels of out-party animus were consistently high. Recent shifts in public opinion were thus not a primary engine of the Trump presidency's anti-democratic efforts or their violent culmination. Such stability suggests that understanding the precipitating causes of those efforts requires attention to other actors, including activists and elites.

Resource Limitation and "Forced Irremediability" in Physician-Assisted Deaths for Nonterminal Mental and Physical Conditions: A Survey of the US Public.

Physician-assisted death (PAD) for people with nonterminal illnesses (PAD-NT) is a controversial practice legal in some countries and increasingly debated in others, including the United States. A major concern about legalization of PAD-NT is that a lack of resources may drive some with mental illnesses or physical disabilities to seek PAD. To assess US public opinion on PAD-NT under conditions of resource limitation. The authors surveyed 2139 US adults matched to the US population in sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, political affiliation, and income. After giving their opinions regarding terminal PAD and PAD-NT in response to traditional PAD survey questions, respondents were randomly presented one of 4 scenarios of persons with nonterminal conditions requesting PAD-NT who lacked adequate resources to maintain their quality of life. The type of resources lacking (social or health care) and medical condition (mental or physical disability) were varied. Respondents' views regarding PAD-NT for the scenario specifically and legalization generally were then reassessed. At baseline, 55.4% of respondents supported legalizing terminal PAD, and 36.9% supported legalizing PAD-NT. After analyzing the scenarios, 28.2% (range 18.6%-39.7%) agreed/strongly agreed with legalizing PAD-NT generally and 23.7% (15.2%-33.7%) agreed/strongly agreed with PAD-NT for the instance depicted, with mental illness scenarios receiving much lower support; respondents' comments suggest devaluation of life with physical disability versus with mental illness. Being politically liberal, not religious, and assigned physical disability scenarios were associated with greater support for PAD-NT in multivariable analyses. A minority of the US public supports PAD-NT in the context of inadequate resources, with much lower support for PAD-NT for mental illness than for physical disability, suggesting that PAD-NT policy debates and future research should address the issue of whether sufficient resources must be available to potential requestors of PAD-NT.

¿Un buen aliado? Análisis de la visión estadounidense sobre el rol español en la OTAN

The United States is the most relevant actor within NATO and has conditioned Spanish participation in the organization since its accession 40 years ago. The article analyzes Spanish participation in NATO from the US perspective. To do this, it focuses on different factors such as the public statements of US leaders in bilateral meetings, the position of US public opinion and the analysis of various objects of debate such as defense spending, Spanish strategic assets, its participation in the different missions implemented by the organization and the Spanish position on issues and regions of interest to the United States. Despite the statements by US leaders about the Spanish role and the positive image of Spain in US public opinion, there is significant room for its improvement.

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

How robust is public support for extended nuclear deterrence in patron and client states? Recent studies have improved scholarly understanding of US public opinion about nuclear weapon use against non-nuclear adversaries. Yet, there is limited knowledge of public attitudes regarding retaliation for nuclear strikes against US allies. We develop a theoretical typology of nuclear crises and investigate this phenomenon with a novel survey experiment ( n = 6,623). Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans viewed realistic emergency alert messages about a most-likely case for nuclear retaliation: a North Korean missile attack on a US ally protected by the nuclear umbrella. Support for nuclear retaliation is low in all three countries, with important cross-national differences. Favorability increases with North Korean nuclear first-use, but it remains limited nonetheless. Surprisingly, US “tripwire” troop casualties do not increase Americans’ demands for nuclear retaliation. These findings have important implications for the study of nuclear crises and practice of extended deterrence.

International Crisis Termination and Presidential Approval

AbstractPrevious research has extensively analyzed the existence and extent of rally effects following crisis initiation with respect to United States public opinion and presidential approval. Relatively less known is how crisis termination affects presidential approval. The theory presented in this article suggests that crisis terminations are prime for rally effects. They are salient, demonstrate competence, and thus activate a significant boost of executive approval akin to rally effects at crisis onset. Insofar as executives might use them as diversionary tools, crisis terminations overcome the strategic conflict avoidance argument and require less cynical assumptions about leaders’ self-interest than the conventional domain of diversionary theory, crisis initiations. We test the claim that crisis terminations have significant ‘‘halo effects’’ using monthly US presidential approval data during forty-eight international crises between 1953 and 2016. Results demonstrate that crisis termination has consistently positive effects on presidential approval. In addition, these surges are conditioned by the degree and disposition of public attention. The findings indicate that US public opinion is quite sensitive to the whole trajectory of an international crisis.

Predicting how US public opinion on moral issues will change from 2018 to 2020 and beyond.

The General Social Survey, conducted every 2 years, measures public opinion on a wide range of moral issues. The data from the 2020 survey are expected to be released in mid-October 2021. In advance of this data release, we make predictions for how public opinion will have shifted since 2018. We also predict further public opinion shifts for the coming decade up until the year 2030. These predictions are based on the theory that an opinion will become more popular over time if it holds an argument advantage, that is, if it is better justified by generally accepted kinds of arguments than the opposite opinion is. While this theory has successfully accounted for historical opinion trends, this is the first time it is used to predict future shifts. To assess the accuracy of our forecast we will compare it with the benchmark forecast that predicts the same public opinion in 2020 as in 2018.

Fascists, Nazis, orSomethingElse?: Mexico's Unión Nacional Sinarquista in the US Media, 1937–1945

AbstractThis paper examines the public relations battles in the US media over Mexico's Unión Nacional Sinarquista (UNS), an explicitly Catholic social movement founded in 1937 that aimed to restore the Church to its traditional role in Mexican society and to reject the reforms of the revolutionary government. Thesinarquistasshared many of the features of fascism and Nazism, the major global antidemocratic movements of the time, including a strident nationalism, authoritarian leanings, an emphasis on martial discipline and strict organizational structure, and a militant aesthetic. Both its ideological leanings and rapid growth (as many as 500,000 members by the early 1940s) led many US writers to suggest that the UNS represented a dangerous fifth-column threat to both Mexico and the United States. Others, particularly in the Catholic press, saw the UNS as an anticommunist organization that could actually help foster democracy in Mexico. For their part, UNS leaders defended themselves vociferously and sought to build relationships with influential US Catholics who could advocate for them in the press. By analyzing this debate, this paper both underscores the transnational characteristics of the UNS and highlights the crucial role of US public opinion in Mexican politics during the 1940s.

Effectiveness of Business Practices Related to Climate Change as a Driver for Improving Environmental Performance

This study explores the relation between business practices related to climate change and environmental performance. Using an international sample of analysis from 2013 to 2017, the paper examines how managerial incentives, public policy, disclosure and responsibilities to executives on climate change, as corporate governance factors, affect a firm's environmental performance. By employing several regression analyses, our independent variables-incentives, public policy, disclosure and responsibilities-show to improve the environmental performance in terms of reduction of GHG emissions. In addition, results show that stakeholders’ engagement seems less relevant in the US with respect to other countries, this could be related to the US public opinion which exerts lower pressures on companies to deal with climate change. This study contributes to the environmental governance literature, where the impact of governance practices in environmental problem solving has not been widely studied.