US Prices Research Articles

Cost-effectiveness of Canakinumab for Prevention of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events

In the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial, the anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody canakinumab significantly reduced the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels of 2 mg/L or greater. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding canakinumab to standard of care for the secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events over a range of potential prices. A state-transition Markov model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon by projecting rates of recurrent MI, coronary revascularization, infection, and lung cancer with and without canakinumab treatment. We used a US health care sector perspective, and the base case used the current US market price of canakinumab of $73 000 per year. A hypothetical cohort of patients after MI aged 61 years with an hs-CRP level of 2 mg/L or greater was constructed. Canakinumab, 150 mg, administered every 3 months plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually. Adding canakinumab to standard of care increased life expectancy from 11.31 to 11.36 years, QALYs from 9.37 to 9.50, and costs from $242 000 to $1 074 000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6.4 million per QALY gained. The price would have to be reduced by more than 98% (to $1150 per year or less) to meet the $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. These results were generally robust across alternative assumptions, eg, substantially lower health-related quality of life after recurrent cardiovascular events, lower infection rates while receiving canakinumab, and reduced all-cause mortality while receiving canakinumab. Including a potential beneficial effect of canakinumab on lung cancer incidence improved the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to $3.5 million per QALY gained. A strategy of continuing canakinumab selectively in patients with reduction in hs-CRP levels to less than 2 mg/L would have a cost-effectiveness ratio of $819 000 per QALY gained. Canakinumab is not cost-effective at current US prices for prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with a prior MI. Substantial price reductions would be needed for canakinumab to be considered cost-effective.

Carbon Costs of Indonesian Forested Land Conversion to Oil Palm Plantations

This article analyzes the loss of carbon dioxide (CO2) released in the forest conversion to oil palm plantations. This research data gathered from the relevant secondary data and relate published reports. This research finds that a loss of release of carbon dioxide (CO2) per hectare of US $ 9,800 with a carbon price of USD2 of US $ 14,000 carbon price of USD3 and US $ 19,600 in carbon price of USD4. In addition, this conversion also has a significant impact on global warming (GWP) and global climate change. Keywords: oil palm plantation, CO2 release, GWP, climate change.

European TiO2 pigment prices fall, while US prices stay on a plateau

European TiO2 pigment prices fall, while US prices stay on a plateau

Accelerated Conversion of Native Prairie to Cropland in Minnesota

SummaryUnplowed native grasslands are among the most endangered ecosystems in the world, due in large part to their agricultural suitability and widespread conversion to cropland. Despite this, remaining locations of these species- and carbon-rich landscapes are neither well monitored nor effectively protected. A recent spike in US prices for corn (Zea mays) and soybeans (Glycine max) intensified incentives to bring new land into production, potentially hastening the conversion of grasslands to crops. We combined satellite-based land cover data with aerial photographs and a field-based inventory of remaining native grassland (hereafter prairie) in Minnesota to assess the areas, rates, and locations of prairie conversion since 2008. Our results reveal that during 2008–2012, prairie was converted at average annual rates more than four times greater than the previous decade and a half. Corn and soybeans were the initial crops planted on 73% of converted prairie, and more than 80% of conversion occurred in recently established conservation priority zones, thereby magnifying the urgency to protect these sites. Broader land-use trends in Minnesota suggest that expansion of both croplands and developed lands continues to threaten all grasslands, including the subset that is prairie, and that the growth of developed or built-up land may be amplifying the conversion pressure exerted by agriculture, though further research is needed. Despite the small total area of prairie lost, the multi-fold increase in conversion rates and the confirmation of native habitat clearing may have substantial conservation implications, especially given the very limited prairie that remains in the region. The overall results reveal challenges for federal policies, including a loophole in the crop insurance Sodsaver provision surrounding alfalfa hay and limitations in the current enforcement of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

PRM140 - UTILIZING ADVANCED DATA ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION, POWERED BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, TO ANALYZE PRICE MIGRATION DATA FOR ONCOLOGY PRODUCTS

Artificial intelligence (AI) allows the user to harness machine learning capabilities to discover unbiased multi-dimensional relationships in datasets. Advanced data analysis and visualization, powered by AI, were used to identify relationships and trends in a US price migration database, otherwise obscured by dataset size, multi-dimensionality and the limitation of hypothesis driven data analysis. A proprietary price migration database of oncology products tracking prices from January 2004 to June 2018, developed by GfK’s market access health team, was inputted into IBM Watson Analytics. Data curation, including aggregation methodology was defined for the dataset. Data discovery was performed, whereby multivariate relationships in pharmaceutical pricing data sets were extracted and analyzed in an unbiased high-throughput fashion utilizing natural language questions. Outputs fed analysis by our team of market access experts to evaluate drivers of price changes over time. Visualizing multi-dimensional relationships and predictive drivers for further analysis provides clues to multi-criteria relationships in oncology product price hikes based on indication, orphan status, route of administration, tumor type, companion diagnostic, FDA approval pathway, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), and frequency of update. Visualization of these trends allow for further sub-analysis of data. Data discovery utilizing AI greatly simplifies multi-variate analyses as an input for conventional market access analyses. In addition, by moving beyond traditional two- or three-dimensional plots, AI exceeds conventional methodology for rapid visualization of price migration data subsets.

Is hub-based pricing a better choice than oil indexation for natural gas? Evidence from a multiple bubble test

Oil indexation and hub-based pricing are two competing pricing mechanisms in the international natural gas markets. The debates over whether hub-based pricing is preferable to oil indexation have become intense among academics and practitioners, for example, whether and when East Asia should adopt hub pricing. This paper contributes empirically to the debate using a multiple bubble test. Adopting the generalized sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test proposed by Phillips et al. (2015), we show that more explosive bubbles exist in Japan and European gas prices than in the US prices. The argument is that hub-based pricing mechanism can better reflect fundamental values in the gas markets and thus is less subject to speculations. Given the recent trend of financialization in energy markets, gas prices are more likely to deviate from fundamental values when they are not clear to investors. Although oil indexation is simple and has been an effective tool over the past few decades, our results suggest that hub pricing is associated with less extreme price movements in the market and thus is a better choice for both policy makers and practitioners.

The larval fishery onLimnothrissa miodonin the Congolese waters of Lake Tanganyika: Impact on exploitable biomass and the value of the fishery

AbstractDeclining catches of freshwater clupeids in Lake Tanganyika have recently led to widespread illegal fishing on the clupeid larvae with mosquito nets. This paper examines whether this larval fishery could have a negative impact on the exploitable biomass of the clupeidLimnothrissa miodonBoulenger and whether the sale of clupeid larvae is actually causing economic losses for the male fishers. The beach seine fishery onL. miodonlarvae in the coastal zone ofDRCongo was surveyed during a cruise in May 2013 from the north to the south of Lake Tanganyika. Local women fishing with their own gear were interviewed, their catch sampled, and their fishing effort evaluated. Based on catch sampling, the annual yield of larval fishing at the 17 fishing sites surveyed was about 24.5 t, worth ofUS$1.5 per kg. If these fish, now harvested as larvae, were allowed to grow to the average size in the lift‐net catches, they would have annually produced 620 t of fish. Applying a price ofUS$3.5 per kg for adult fish, and subtracting the value of larvae sold, this indicates that the current income ofUS $36, 800from the larval fishery translated in to aUS$2.1 million loss for the lift‐net fishery, thus accentuating the problems facing the fishing community.

An Overview of the U.S. Bell Pepper Industry

Bell pepper is one of the most widely cultivated vegetable crops in the world; it is widely grown all over the United States, and production of bell pepper has been a major economic contribution to the vegetable industry in Florida and California. This 4-page fact sheet written by Trina Biswas, Zhengfei Guan, and Feng Wu and published by the UF/IFAS Food and Resource Economics Department provides an overview of the US bell pepper industry, including production, prices, and trade. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe1028

Southeast Asia's import demand for skim milk powder: Implications for US exporters

Dairy industries in Southeast Asia are small and produce less than the domestic market demands. As expenditure and population grow in Southeast Asia, it is expected that the expenditures on skim milk powder (SMP) will grow. In this study, we examined the competitiveness of US SMP in the Southeast Asian market with respect to other leading dairy exporters, including the European Union (EU-28), New Zealand, and Australia. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2015, Rotterdam models were used to estimate import demands for SMP in 4 Southeast Asian countries. In a scenario using annual averages from 2013 to 2015 as a baseline, our findings suggest that a 10% reduction in the US price of SMP would cause Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines SMP imports from the United States to increase by 3.96, 0.44, 2.68, and 1.94 kt, respectively. Under the same scenario, the value of US SMP imports would decrease for Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines by $4.12, $2.93, and $2.48 million, respectively; however, the value of US SMP to Singapore would increase by $0.20 million. Singapore and Indonesia expenditures for the US SMP are elastic, which means that as expenditure and population in Southeast Asia continue to grow, a 1% increase in SMP expenditure in Singapore and Indonesia would result in 1.25 and 1.20% increases in US SMP exports.

Investment behavior of Canada egg producers

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to document the level of risk in the Québec egg sector (conventional and specialty eggs) and analyze the optimal choices of Québec egg producers that must allocate limited resources to production of different types of eggs.Design/methodology/approachA quadratic programming approach applied to expected mean-variance models is used to analyze the impact of risk on decision to invest when the resources must be allocated to different type of production that have different risk levels. The model is calibrated using monthly data from 2009 to 2016.FindingsResults indicated multiple uncertainty sources (technological, cost of production, price of eggs) that vary according to the types of eggs. Given risk aversion parameters, producer would favor production modes with the lowest producers’ price variance, which correspond to free-run eggs. Results also indicated that in response to a greater intensity of risk aversion, the course of action producers may choose is to increase the relative production of free-run eggs.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical limits of this research are found in the lack of quality data on producer prices and costs for specialty eggs. Future research could explore the relationship between the growing impact of egg for processing, which price is based on the US price, and its relationship with specialty eggs.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study will be useful for policy makers and managers of eggs supply chain. This is important, given the recent announcement by Canadian’s large retailers and fast food companies to increase cage free eggs offering and, in some cases, eventually only selling these types of eggs.Originality/valueThis study adds to the understanding of the role of risk and uncertainty in the investment decision of egg producers and different mode of production, as well as in the development of the growing production of specialty eggs in Canada. It fills a gap in the literature regarding the impact of risk in Canadian egg production. This gap is likely explained by the perception of a lack of risk in this supply managed sector in Canada and its small size relative to other supply managed sector.

Estimating U.S. Consumer Gains from Chinese Imports

We estimate the size of US consumer gains from Chinese imports during 2004-2015. Using barcode-level price and expenditure data, we construct inflation rates under CES preferences, and use Chinese exports to Europe as an instrument. We find significant negative effects of Chinese imports on US prices. This effect is driven by both changes in the prices of existing goods and the entry of new goods and it is similar across consumer groups by income or region. A simple benchmarking exercise suggests that Chinese imports led to a 0.19 ppt annual reduction in the price index for consumer tradables.

Interpreting the Estimates from the Full VECH Model with Asymmetry: The Case of US and Canadian Equity Prices

This paper attempts to derive careful interpretation of the parameter estimates from one of the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models, the full vector-half (VECH) model with asymmetric effects. We also consider and interpret the parameter estimates from a case study of US and Canadian equity index returns by applying this model. More specifically, we firstly inspect the model formula and derive general interpretation of the model parameters. We consider this is particularly useful for understanding not only the full VECH model structure but also similar MGARCH models. After the general considerations, we also interpret the case results that are derived from our application of the full VECH model to US and Canadian equity index returns. We consider that these concrete illustrations are also very helpful for future related research.

Price Comparison Of New Drugs In Japan, Eu And Us

Japan has the following pricing guidance: a premium is possible to be applied for an Orphan Designated drug if the premium has not been applied to its comparator. The objective of this study is to compare National Healthcare Insurance (NHI) prices of Orphan Designated drugs with Reference Countries' prices (listed in US: Red Book; UK: MIMS; Germany: Rote Liste; France: Vidal) at the time of NHI price listing. NHI price information was obtained from official websites of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW). We investigated if new drugs listed from April 2014 to December 2016 had reference countries' prices and Orphan Designation, and selected NHI prices of new drugs which have at least one or more reference countries' prices, in addition to Orphan Designation. We compared the selected NHI prices with "Foreign Average Price (FAP)", the average of all existing reference countries' prices the "EU Average Price (EUP)", the average of all existing prices of UK, Germany and France and the "US Price (USP)." A total of 181 new drugs were listed on the NHI price list from April 2014 to December 2016. Out of 181 drugs, 120 drugs (66%) had at least one or more reference countries' prices, of which 48 drugs (40%) received Orphan Designation. In addition, among the Orphan Designated drugs, 83%, 65% and 91% were priced lower than FAP, EUP and USP, respectively. For other drugs, 88%, 71% and 94% were priced lower than FAP, EUP and USP, respectively. In the past three years, NHI pricings for new drugs in Japan tended to be lower than Reference Countries' prices, even of new drugs for unmet medical needs. Further guidance to value new drugs, especially Orphan Designated drugs, would be necessary for the pricing system in Japan.

Evolocumab not cost effective for ASCVD at current US price

Evolocumab not cost effective for ASCVD at current US price

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)

The growing importance of natural gas as a predictor for retail electricity prices in US

In the literature, there are tests about long and or short Granger causality between primary energy sources such as natural gas and secondary energy sources like electricity. Nevertheless the existence of a causal relationship or not, cannot clearly illustrate the dynamics in their relationship over time. Towards this direction, we apply a one step ahead rolling forecast and examine the performance of the average cost of natural gas as a predictor for retail electricity prices at national and regional level over time. Our analysis answers if, how and when the cost of natural gas becomes a significant predictor of electricity prices. Besides lower natural gas prices, the existence of sufficient gas infrastructures or a competitive market environment or both of them is needed in order to couple retail electricity prices with the cost of natural gas. This growing importance must be taken into account from policy makers by allowing additional gas based stations in the main-grid but at the same time avoiding the risks from the natural gas price volatility.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of consolidation with brentuximab vedotin for high-risk Hodgkin lymphoma after autologous stem cell transplantation.

In a recent randomized, placebo-controlled trial, consolidation treatment with brentuximab vedotin (BV) decreased the risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) progression after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). However, the impact of BV consolidation on overall survival, quality of life, and health care costs remain unclear. A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to measure the costs and clinical outcomes for BV consolidation therapy compared with active surveillance in a cohort of patients aged 33 years who were at risk for HL relapse after ASCT. Life-time costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each post-ASCT strategy. After quality-of-life adjustments and standard discounting, upfront BV consolidation was associated with an improvement of 1.07 QALYs compared with active surveillance plus BV as salvage. However, the strategy of BV consolidation led to significantly higher health care costs ($378,832 vs $219,761), resulting in an ICER for BV consolidation compared with active surveillance of $148,664/QALY. If indication-specific pricing was implemented, then the model-estimated BV price reductions of 18% to 38% for the consolidative setting would translate into ICERs of $100,000 and $50,000 per QALY, respectively. These findings were consistent on 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. BV as consolidation therapy under current US pricing is unlikely to be cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. However, indication-specific price reductions for the consolidative setting could reduce ICERs to widely acceptable values. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2017;123:3763-3771. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Energy Intensity: Prices, Policy, or Composition in US States

This project uses the historical experience of US states to ask why energy intensity has declined in some places more than in others, and whether that difference can help provide guidance for other states and countries to pursue less energy-intensive (and therefore less pollution-intensive) economic growth. There are several advantages to studying US states. The variation in energy intensity across states has been similar to the changes across countries, and some states – notably California – have been held up as models for the rest of the world by international organizations such as the World Bank. More importantly, the industrial composition of US states can be studied at a highly disaggregated level. The 473 six-digit NAICS codes in the manufacturing sector are measured comparably across states, ameliorating concerns about industry definition or aggregation bias. And finally, if California, Texas, New York and Florida were independent countries, they would rank among the world’s top twenty largest economies. What happens in individual US states matters not just for local and US national policy but for the climate across the globe. I show that US energy intensity fell by 40 percent between 1982 and 2007; that much of that decline was in the industrial sector; but that the decline is not explained by the decreasing industrial share of the US economy or the changing composition of the industrial sector. Across US states, prices and policies are correlated with the decreasing share and composition of manufacturing, but not with the technique of production, which appears to be the most important source of US energy intensity gains.

Rush to Judgement: Imaginary Worlds and Cost-Outcomes Claims for PCSK9 Inhibitors

Pricing by the manufacturers of the two PCSK9 inhibitors recently approved by the FDA, evolocumab and alirocumab, has led to an ongoing debate over the value of these interventions in clinical practice. In the US, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) has been in the forefront of those who have argued that, in the context of notional incremental willingness-to-pay thresholds, manufacturers should reduce drug prices substantially. This conclusion has been echoed in a number of other technology assessments, notably in assessments by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. At the same time, other evaluations have reported favorably, arguing that at current US prices, the two products meet willingness-to-pay benchmarks. The purpose of this commentary is not to argue for or against current PCSK9 pricing policies but to point out that the case made for possible price adjustments rest upon technology assessments that fail to meet the standards of normal science. Modeled claims that are properly classified as pseudoscience. The claims made are non-evaluable. Formulary committees, rather than accepting these claims at face value, should step back and work with manufacturers to develop claims that are targeted, robust, evaluable and replicable in a timeframe where feedback on PCSK9 outcomes are meaningful to health system decision makers.
 
 Type: Commentary

Analysis Providing Diesel-Wind Hybrid Electrical Energy System in Timor Island Indonesia

The research objective are: (1) Analyse the capacity needs of the wind energy system based on the parameters of energy requirements, the ability of the inverter, generator capability and the ability of the local wind. (2) Generate a simulate diesel-wind hybrid power plants for Kupang city and every district in Timor island; (3) Generate an optimization of wind-diesel hybrid power plant for Kupang city and districts in Timor island; (4) Generate a scheme wind-diesel hybrid power plant for Kupang city and every district in Timor island. The method used in this research is quantitative method with the approach of simulation, optimization and sensitivity analysis used HOMER application program, i.e.: (1) simulation system of diesel-wind hybrid power plant; (2) optimization system of diesel-win hybrid generator, and (3) the sensitivity analysis system diesel-wind hybrid power plant. Conclusion of this research are: (1) Simulation in Kupang city and districts of Kupang are wind turbines 20 KW with generator capacity of 71.7 KW. Optimization result of wind-energy contribution of only 7% and ideal price of US $ 0.47 to produce wind turbines of 20,000 KWH/yr; (2) Simulation in South Central Timor (TTS) district is wind turbines 3 KW with generator capacity of 11.4 KW. The result of optimization of wind-energy contribution of only 9% and ideal price of US $ 0.525 to produce wind turbines of 1.165 KWH/yr; (3) Simulation in North Central Timor (TTU) district is wind turbines 1 KW with generator capacity of 7.62 KW. Optimization result of wind-energy contribution of only 4% and ideal price of US $ 0.53 to produce wind turbines of 1.150 KWH/yr;(4) Simulation in Belu districts is wind turbines 10 KW with generator capacity of 12.1 KW. Optimization result of wind-energy contribution of only 22% and ideal price of US $ 0.48 to produce wind turbines of 1.210 KWH/yr.