US Presidential Election Research Articles

Birds of a feather? Mis- and dis-information on the social media platform X related to avian influenza.

Social media has become an important tool in monitoring infectious disease outbreaks such as coronavirus disease 2019 and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Influenced by the recent announcement of a possible human death from H5N2 avian influenza, we analyzed tweets collected from X (formerly Twitter) to describe the messaging regarding the HPAI outbreak, including mis- and dis-information, concerns, and health education. We collected tweets involving keywords relating to HPAI for 5 days (June 04 to June 08, 2024). Using topic modeling, emotion, sentiment, and user demographic analyses, we were able to describe the population and the HPAI-related topics that users discussed. With an original pool of 14,796 tweets, we analyzed a final data set of 13,319 tweets from 10,421 unique X users, with 50.4% of the tweets exhibiting negative sentiments (< 0 on a scale of -4 to +4). Predominant emotions were anger and fear shown in 36.4% and 29.5% of tweets, respectively. We identified 5 distinct, descriptive topics within the tweets. The use of emotionally charged language and spread of misinformation were substantial. Mis- and dis-information about the causes of and ways to prevent HPAI infections were common. A large portion of the tweets contained references to a planned epidemic or "plandemic" to influence the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. These tweets were countered by a limited number of tweets discussing infection locations, case reports, and preventive measures. Our study can be used by public health officials and clinicians to influence the discourse on current and future outbreaks.

Social networks between the US presidential candidates regarding COVID-19

Social networks between the US presidential candidates regarding COVID-19

Social networks between the US presidential candidates regarding COVID-19

Social networks between the US presidential candidates regarding COVID-19

US Presidential Elections 2024: Impact on Supply Chain

This paper examines the contrasting supply chain policies of the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations, emphasizing the implications of their strategies amid the complexities of global economic dynamics. Trump’s "America First" approach prioritized domestic manufacturing through tariffs and trade barriers, attempting to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly from China. However, these measures led to increased consumer costs, strained international relations, and highlighted vulnerabilities in critical supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration advocates for a resilient, sustainable, and cooperative supply chain framework, focusing on global alliances, significant infrastructure investments, and technological advancements. This administration's emphasis on sustainability aligns with growing consumer demand for environmentally friendly practices, whereas innovation plays a crucial role in adapting to ongoing global challenges.The study explores the lessons learned from the contrasting approaches regarding resilience, sustainability, and geopolitical considerations, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to adapt its supply chain strategies to navigate future uncertainties more effectively. Ultimately, the essay underscores the importance of innovation, collaboration, and sustainability in shaping robust supply chains that not only respond to immediate challenges but also secure long-term economic prosperity and national security in an increasingly interconnected world.

Disinformation as Hybrid Warfare and its Strategic Use in the United States 2024 Election

This article examines the growing role of disinformation in hybrid warfare, centering on its use in social media during the 2024 United States Presidential Election. While disinformation is as old as time, the methods and its mediums have evolved rapidly since Cold-War era propaganda and towards social media infiltration. These social media campaigns, first notably observed in the 2016 United States Presidential Election, highlights a new age of conflict and foreign meddling, highlighting the global shift from classical military warfare to more subversive tactics. The article argues that disinformation, as a form of hybrid warfare, that emphasizes exploiting a target’s societal vulnerabilities, exacerbating them to ultimately weaken the target from the inside-out and destabilizing, eroding, or even destroying, their political systems. Via an analysis of the 2024 United States election disinformation interference, following a recapitulation of its first presence in the 2016 election, this article examines the geopolitical dimensions and draws of disinformation warfare, the motives behind the foreign actors’ interference, and the destabilizing results it fosters within the general public. Additionally, it begins a discussion of how similar disinformation strategies can be and have been utilized across other democracies in Europe, Asia, and beyond, threatening the current global order of liberalism and democratic superiority. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of nations to invest into understanding and countering these new technological warfare tactics in order to properly protect, defend, and safeguard the integrity of their democratic governance. With disinformation and information hybrid warfare, amongst social media in particular, becomes the increasingly preferred method of confrontation with adversaries due to its low-risk, high-reward quality, it poses possibly the largest threat to global stability and threatens to upend the entire system, necessitating direct and immediate attention to address this vulnerability of our global infosphere.

Transatlantic Economic Relations at a Crossroads

The article was written on the eve of the US presidential election in 2024 and is devoted to the economic aspects of modern transatlantic relations. Descriptive statistics is used to assess the role and place of the transatlantic economy in terms of gross product, export-import operations, trade of US and EU branches and investment activity. The article touches upon the interconnectedness of the economy. It tense noted that the parties remain the main source of prosperity for each other. On this basis, hypotheses has been put forward about the reasons for restarting the dialog and its instability. Taking into account the logic of well-known integration theories, the author deliberates about the predisposition of the USA and the EU to institutionalize relations with the creation of common norms. However, small advantages on the US side in the ratio of benefits from economic integration are a factor of instability and an opportunity for further competition within the transatlantic economy. Based on the analysis of official reports on the activities of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council and other documents, the author's vision of the purpose of the dialogue is formulated – to test political innovations that contribute to completing the transition of the transatlantic economy to the sixth wave of innovation and maintaining its leadership positions in the world.

2024 US Presidential Election: Reproductive Rights in Focus

More than a quarter of a century has passed since the member parliaments of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) adopted the Universal Declaration of Democracy in 1997 (Cairo, Egypt). The document was designed as an international standard to assist governments, parliaments, and citizens in overcoming the many challenges to democracy worldwide. Amid ongoing debates about democracy, there are voices in various countries suggesting that the declaration is losing its relevance due to the perceived devaluation of democracy itself. However, supporters of a different point of view emphasize its other features, such as its stability and flexibility, and high adaptability to modern challenges, as well as its continued usefulness in driving positive changes in people's lives. The American public's views on specific policies regarding abortion reflect broader perspectives on what lies behind the façade of a medical procedure. Abortion is not primarily a medical issue, although the procedure itself is inherently medical. It extends far beyond the medical realm. Indeed, the struggle of American women for their rights, particularly reproductive rights, spans multiple generations, tracing a long historical trajectory. In the first quarter of the 21st century, when American respondents were asked about the significance of abortion, the majority emphasized its philosophical and political dimensions. Specifically, 81% viewed it as a matter of individual rights and freedoms, situating it within the broader context of human and reproductive rights. Many perceived abortion as a health issue (68%) and moral issue (62%). Notably, this group of respondents includes Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Fewer respondents viewed abortion as a religious issue (41%), although most Republicans (55%) saw it in that light. The question remains: Is American model of democracy up to the task of mitigating the reproductive rights emergency in the United States?

On the DPRK-US Relations

The article analyzes the state and prospects of relations between the DPRK and the United States in the context of statements made in the spring of 2024 by the staff of the administration of J. Biden. They said the United States is ready to start a dialogue with the DPRK "on a wide range of issues", "without any conditions" and consider some "intermediate steps" towards the complete denuclearization of the DPRK. However, the US practical measures indicate that these "advances" are of a propaganda nature. It is unlikely that agreements with the DPRK on the nuclear issue and other issues of bilateral relations will be reached before the US presidential elections.

Election Interference and Online Propaganda Campaigns: Dynamic Interdependencies on Facebook, Google Trends, and the New York Times

The relationship between propaganda campaigns, news outlets, and search patterns is of significant interest to political authorities and academic scholars from various disciplines. We explore these dynamic relationships using 3,500 Facebook propaganda advertisements, 167,000 New York Times stories, and hundreds of Google Trends searches for terms from the advertisements and articles in the two years preceding the 2016 US presidential election. The data indicate that propaganda campaigns utilize random content infrequently and instead follow specific Google search patterns. Depending on the subject matter, Facebook advertisements can anticipate the New York Times. In the contexts of immigration, racism, and the LGBT community, such patterns of content adaptation are more prominent. We use the results to provide policy and research recommendations.

In Focus: Mapping Disillusionment: The 2024 US Presidential Election

In Focus: Mapping Disillusionment: The 2024 US Presidential Election

Tariffs and Trade: Tensions with China and the Run-Up to the 2024 US Presidential Election

Tariffs and Trade: Tensions with China and the Run-Up to the 2024 US Presidential Election

Artificial Intelligence and Its Transformative Impact on Modern Politics

Abstract. Since the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) with the Turing test and the Dartmouth Conference, AI has continued to evolve. This evolution has encompassed the introduction of cybernetics, big data, and machine training. However, as the development of artificial intelligence becomes more sophisticated, several issues have begun to emerge. This paper examines the increasing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the political sphere over time, specifically examines how AI is being used in the political process, including applications such as sentiment analysis, targeted advertising, and more. It also considers the challenges that have emerged alongside the development of AI, including those related to privacy, voter manipulation, and the transparency of the political process. The paper presents case studies of the 2016 US presidential election and the 2019 Indian general election, which demonstrate how artificial intelligence is exerting a significant influence on democratic political processes, and concludes that as AI becomes increasingly beneficial to human society, concerns are emerging regarding regulations, ethics, political involvement, and other issues. The research addressed the issue of maintaining democratic integrity in politics while advancing artificial intelligence, which offers numerous benefits for modern politics. The paper calls for implementing regulatory policies that would prevent the unethical involvement of artificial intelligence in politics. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of ensuring that the advantages of artificial intelligence are utilized effectively and fully in the modern political landscape.

It’s not me, it’s you? Reexamining how perceived sexism impacts candidate electability

ABSTRACT The 2020 US Presidential Election put the focus on the electability of women, and the emerging consensus is that perceptions of the sexism of others contribute to views that women are less able to win. Across two studies, however, I show that these results have only limited generalizability. While I do find that women are disadvantaged, there is no evidence of a significant connection to perceived sexism. In total, my results suggest that the “it’s not me, it’s you” argument may not be as informative as previously thought, and that studies of electability need to consider a much broader number of factors beyond just sex.

Scientists as political advocates.

Science, both teaching and doing, is under attack. The recent US presidential election of a person and platform with anti-science bias exemplifies this. The study of climate processes and patterns and the role of human activities in these phenomena are at the heart of multiple global crises, and yet the scientific results, and the scientists presenting them, are attacked constantly. The dissemination of knowledge on health involving reproduction and human sexuality is increasingly marked for attack (in Russia, Uganda, and the USA), and researchers in these areas are often the target of extensive political pressure. The massive attack on the science and the scientists behind vaccines, pathogen transmission, and public health during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond is well documented, as are attacks on basic science education and the practice of science (for example, in Hungary and the USA). Even in the arena of biodiversity conservation, there is growing politicization of the data and political targeting of the scientists producing it. According to the US-based National Association of Biology Teachers (NABT), climate change, reproduction, vaccines, and other evidence-based scientific topics are being deemed "controversial" by school boards and state officials and are being removed from state-approved teaching resources across the country. Core research on health, climate, human biology, and biodiversity is being undermined by private foundations, governments, and anti-science ideologues.

Why do lawyers attack the rule of law? Trajectories of “Trump lawyers”

ABSTRACT This article explores why lawyers participate in attacks on the rule of law by examining the career trajectories of lawyers involved in the “Stop the Steal” campaign to overturn the results of the 2020 US presidential election. The article uses biographical information about “Trump lawyers” to identify distinctive paths into the campaign and to analyze how those paths were shaped by the interplay of individual motives, like money and power, and structural factors, like political context and practice site. Mapping the roles lawyers played in the 2020 election attack, the article proposes a typology of career trajectories into autocratic movements and considers what they teach about the influence of rising polarization and stratification on American lawyers' relationship to democracy.

"Are We the Normal Ones?": International Students' Perceptions of US Politics and Policies in 2020–2021

Abstract: The years 2020–2021 were filled with contention, including politicizing a global virus, a US presidential election, and the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Yet, much of the research on college student responses has tended to focus on US domestic students. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine international students' perceptions of US politics and policies during that time. Findings from the study included concerns about the politicized pandemic, excitement and trepidation at presidential changes, and disbelief over the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

The Donald Trump Factor and US-Ukrainian Relations (2017-2020): From Strategic Friendship to Cold Partnership

This article analyses the dynamics of relations between Ukraine and the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump, covering the approaches of the parties to bilateral cooperation, key events and issues. It describes in detail the main features of Washington’s policy towards Ukraine during this period, the factors that shaped it and the reasons for any contradictions involved. It is noted that the course of the Trump administration’s foreign policy towards Ukraine has been shaped by three factors: strong pressure from Congress, contradictions between the president and his foreign policy team, and public suspicions of collusion between Trump’s entourage and the Kremlin in the 2016 US presidential election, which was accompanied by a bitter domestic political struggle. With no room for manoeuvre in such circumstances, the Trump administration chose the safest course of action – to continue the policy of the Obama administration with certain tactical changes designed to demonstrate a more decisive stance than its predecessor. These involved a significant increase in economic and military assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of lethal weapons and the appointment of Kurt Volker as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. Based on extensive empirical evidence, this paper also highlights the progress made and achievements with regard to cooperation in four areas that made up the Ukrainian-US relations agenda during the period covered: political dialogue, security, energy projects and the fight against corruption. The author shows that the contradictory nature of US policy towards Ukraine under Trump comprised a combination of a significant increase in military assistance and a decrease in the intensity of high-level political contacts.

The Great Lockdown and Economic Voting: Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The 2020 US presidential election was won by Democrat challenger Joseph Biden over Republican incumbent Donald Trump and was contested during the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unemployment increased sharply during the pandemic but was followed by a large federal relief package. We investigate whether there was economic voting in the 2020 election, that is, whether the increased unemployment rate and the subsequent government response during the pandemic affected Trump’s vote negatively or positively overall. We examine 48 states (by excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC). Using a triple-differences (DDD) model (that is, examining changes in a candidate’s county-level vote-share depending on the change in unemployment and historical Republican-Democrat partisanship), we predict what would have happened if the increase in unemployment rate in between March and October 2020 had been more modest. Although many states show significant negative expected impacts on the Trump vote, we predict that only when when the unemployment rates experience little change during the pandemic would overall results have swung in the incumbent’s favour – and only then in Arizona and Georgia.

Immigration in the 2024 US presidential election campaign: policy stalemate, disinformation, and a call for mass deportation

Immigration has been one of the most contentious and defining issues of the 2024 presidential election, rivaled only by economic policy and national security. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has largely succeeded in setting the terms of the debate – hammering away at his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, with hyperbolic claims that she supports “open borders” and false accusations that the US is experiencing a wave of violent crime committed by migrants. Trump’s immigration rhetoric relies increasingly on lies, misinformation, and racist stereotypes. But his claim that immigration is “out of control” – and his insistence that firm measures are needed to address it – have become central to the Republican platform, and one of Trump’s most frequently repeated campaign promises is that he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants soon after taking office. Why is immigration such a controversial issue in the US? How have the different administrations dealt with it? Is it an overused issue in this campaign?

How does the consent model in Australia’s Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) undermine our human right to privacy?

ABSTRACT Cambridge Analytica was a political consulting business that became known for its use of personal data obtained from social media platform Facebook, to drive election campaigns on behalf of its clients. Their most famous client was the winner of the 2016 US Presidential election. When it was realised that Cambridge Analytica had acquired Australian Facebook users’ data, the Australian privacy regulator started litigation against Facebook to enforce the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth). This article examines how the Facebook litigation and subsequent law reform activities shed light on the central, yet fictitious role of the consent model. A historical and cultural analysis reveals how consent to surrender private information is a symptom of social conditions in which we take it for granted that individuals, rather than business, will bear the costs of poor privacy outcomes. Our collective ‘consent realism’ not only constrains the imagination of policy makers but interferes with a person’s autonomy in forming and developing opinions. However, a right to privacy can be more viably re-asserted, at least in response to the Cambridge Analytica incident, within the framework of Australia’s implied freedom of political communication. Consent realism can thus potentially be overcome in favour of human rights principles.