US Metropolitan Statistical Areas Research Articles

Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' Before the Great Recession?

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the permanent income hypothesis is true. We find mixed support for this hypothesis using time series data for the 100 largest US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as well as aggregate macro time series, for the period 1980q1-2011q4. That is, income is more often found to predict consumption and saving than the converse. Our modus operandi is to investigate the 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis by testing (weak) exogeneity of income and consumption and by exploring the direction of Granger causality between the two series. We also give evidence that house price changes played a role in the US income and consumption dynamics, before, during and after the Great Recession.

Mapping the arts: industry concentrations, distribution, and change in the US, 1980–2010

This paper studies arts industries in all 366 US metropolitan statistical areas between 1980 and 2010. Our analysis provides evidence that the arts are an important component of many regional economies, but also highlights their volatility. After radical growth and diffusion between 1980 and 2000, in the last decade, the arts industries are defined more by shrinkage and reconcentration in fewer metropolitan areas. Further, we find that the vast majority of metros have strengths in particular sets of arts industries. As we discuss in the conclusion, these conditions present challenges and opportunities for urban cultural policy that goes beyond the current focus on the arts as consumption amenities.

US House Price Bubbles and Busts

We use data for a large panel of US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (US MSAs) in order to assess the ex ante likelihood of house price bubbles. We employ a vector error correction–based model in order to project house prices under different scenarios. Projected house price (and employment) distributions are generated for each MSA. The model’s predictions are compared to actual outcomes—focusing primarily on the house price bubble and bust of the Great Recession. In applying these results to local governments, we document a substantial rise in property tax rates during the recent crisis. Results from this exercise suggest that interactions between the property tax and house price fluctuations may have exacerbated the bubble and bust. More generally, our analysis underscores the complexity of forecasting bubbles and cautions against attempting to do so using the notion of a national housing market. Even in recent years, housing markets are heavily influenced by local supply and demand conditions.

Regional US House Price Formation: One Model Fits All?

Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. For each area we estimate a separate cointegrated VAR model, focusing on differences in the effect of subprime lending and lagged house price appreciation. Our results demonstrate substantial differences in the importance of subprime lending for house price determination across regional housing markets. Specifically, we find a greater impact of subprime lending in areas with a high degree of physical and regulatory restrictions on land supply. Likewise, lagged house price appreciation - interpreted as capturing an adaptive expectation channel - is found to be more important in areas where the supply of dwellings is more constrained, in areas located in a state with non-recourse lending and in more populous areas. Our results also suggest that disequilibrium constellations are restored more slowly in areas located in a state with non-recourse lending.

The determinants of cultural building: Identifying the demographic and economic factors associated with cultural facility investment in US metropolitan statistical areas between 1994 and 2008

I use a two-part model and building permit data for all US metropolitan statistical areas between 1994 and 2008 to estimate the effects of capital and labour stock, cultural sector composition, population change, education and median household income levels on total investment in cultural facilities. The results suggest that investment in cultural facilities is associated with the existing stock of facilities, population change, education and median household income levels. Furthermore, I find preliminary evidence that demand from the cultural sector was not adequately assessed in the period investment took place.

Traffic Congestion’s Economic Impacts: Evidence from US Metropolitan Regions

Traffic congestion alleviation has long been a common core transport policy objective, but it remains unclear under which conditions this universal byproduct of urban life also impedes the economy. Using panel data for 88 US metropolitan statistical areas, this study estimates congestion’s drag on employment growth (1993 to 2008) and productivity growth per worker (2001 to 2007). Using instrumental variables, results suggest that congestion slows job growth above thresholds of approximately 4.5 minutes of delay per one-way auto commute and 11,000 average daily traffic (ADT) per lane on average across the regional freeway network. While higher ADT per freeway lane appears to slow productivity growth, there is no evidence of congestion-induced travel delay impeding productivity growth. Results suggest that the strict policy focus on travel time savings may be misplaced and, instead, better outlooks for managing congestion’s economic drag lie in prioritising the economically most important trips (perhaps through road pricing) or in providing alternative travel capacity to enable access despite congestion.

Trends in the population prevalence of people who inject drugs in US metropolitan areas 1992-2007.

BackgroundPeople who inject drugs (PWID) have increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We update and present estimates and trends of the prevalence of current PWID and PWID subpopulations in 96 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992–2007. Current estimates of PWID and PWID subpopulations will help target services and help to understand long-term health trends among PWID populations.MethodologyWe calculated the number of PWID in the US annually from 1992–2007 and apportioned estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. We used four types of data indicating drug injection to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of component estimates of PWID in each MSA and year. The four component estimates are averaged to create the best estimate of PWID for each MSA and year. We estimated PWID prevalence rates for three subpopulations defined by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends using multi-level polynomial models.ResultsPWID per 10,000 persons aged 15–64 years varied across MSAs from 31 to 345 in 1992 (median 104.4) to 34 to 324 in 2007 (median 91.5). Trend analysis indicates that this rate declined during the early period and then was relatively stable in 2002–2007. Overall prevalence rates for non-Hispanic black PWID increased in 2005 as compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanic prevalence, in contrast, declined across time. Importantly, results show a worrisome trend in young PWID prevalence since HAART was initiated – the mean prevalence was 90 to 100 per 10,000 youth in 1992–1996, but increased to >120 PWID per 10,000 youth in 2006–2007.ConclusionsOverall, PWID rates remained constant since 2002, but increased for two subpopulations: non-Hispanic black PWID and young PWID. Estimates of PWID are important for planning and evaluating public health programs to reduce harm among PWID and for understanding related trends in social and health outcomes.

Residential Segregation and Gonorrhea Rates in US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 2005–2009

The residential segregation of black populations, often in areas of high-economic disadvantage and low social status, may play a crucial role in the observed racial inequities in sexually transmitted disease rates. An ecological analysis of 2005 to 2009 average gonorrhea rates was performed across 277 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The black isolation index and Gini index of income inequality were used as proxy measures for racial and economic residential segregation respectively, derived from 2005 to 2009 US Census estimates. We used logistic regression modeling to produce estimates of odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between the segregation indices, both independently and in combination, on gonorrhea rates in MSAs. Effect measure modification was assessed by calculating the relative excess risk due to interaction between the 2 indices. Compared with MSAs with low levels of racial segregation, MSAs with high levels of racial segregation had increased odds of high gonorrhea rates (adjusted OR, 3.37; 95% CI, 1.23-9.21). Similarly, higher levels of income inequality predicted higher gonorrhea rates, although this association did not persist after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.74-3.24). In combined models, the influence of racial residential segregation on gonorrhea rates was stronger than that of income inequality-based segregation; there was no evidence of additivity or a multiplicative interaction. Residential segregation by race or income equality may be a key component in the perpetuation of high rates of gonorrhea and other sexually transmitted diseases among black populations in the United States.

Prior Experiences of Racial Discrimination and Racial Differences in Health Care System Distrust

Factors contributing to racial differences in health care system distrust (HCSD) are currently unknown. Proposed potential contributing factors are prior experiences of racial discrimination and racial residential segregation. Random digit dialing survey of 762 African American and 1267 white adults living in 40 US metropolitan statistical areas. Measures included the Revised Health Care System Distrust scale, the Experiences of Discrimination scale, metrics of access to care, sociodemographic characteristics, and the level of racial residential segregation in the city (using the isolation index). In unadjusted analyses, African Americans had higher levels of HCSD, particularly values distrust, and greater experiences of discrimination. Experience of discrimination was also strongly associated with HCSD. Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, health care access, and residential segregation had little effect on the association between African American race and overall HCSD or values distrust. In contrast, adjusting for experiences of racial discrimination reversed the association so that distrust was lower among African Americans than whites (odds ratio 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.85 for the overall measure). The Sobel test for mediation was strongly significant (P<0.001). Higher HCSD among African Americans is explained by a greater burden of experiences of racial discrimination than whites. Reasons for higher distrust among whites after adjusting for experiences of racial discrimination are not known. Efforts to eliminate racial discrimination and restore trust given prior discrimination are needed.

Piloting a System for Behavioral Surveillance Among Heterosexuals at Increased Risk of HIV in the United States

Objectives: During the past decade, the number and proportion of reported HIV cases in the United States acquired through heterosexual contact has increased markedly. CDC employs the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System (NHBS) to monitor risk behaviors and HIV prevalence in high-risk populations. To identify a target population for conducting NHBS among heterosexuals at increased risk for HIV (NHBS-HET), CDC designed, implemented and evaluated a pilot study.Methods:The pilot study was conducted in 25 US metropolitan statistical areas in 2006-7. We recruited men and women who reported sex with at least one opposite-sex partner during the past year for a behavioral survey and HIV test. We investigated the relationship between newly diagnosed HIV infection and individual risk behaviors, sexual network characteristics, and social-structural characteristics to arrive at a definition of a heterosexual at increased risk of HIV.Results:Of 14,750 participants in the analysis, 207 (1.4%) had newly diagnosed HIV infection. Using low socioeconomic status (SES) as a criterion for defining a heterosexual at increased risk for HIV resulted in optimal rates of HIV prevalence, specificity, sensitivity and practicality.Conclusions:Results from the NHBS pilot study underscore the key role of social factors as determinants of HIV infection risk among U.S. heterosexuals, and low SES was incorporated into the definition of a heterosexual at increased risk for HIV in NHBS-HET cycles. Future cycles of NHBS-HET will help tailor prevention programs for those populations most at risk of HIV in the US.

Migration, housing market, and labor market responses to employment shocks

One reason for the United States’ economic success is the willingness of its residents to follow jobs. Households’ decisions to move depend not only on job prospects but also on the relative cost of housing. I investigate how the housing market affects the flow of workers across cities. This occurs through at least two channels: the relative mobility of homeowners versus renters, and the relative cost of housing across markets. I use homeownership rates to measure the former, and use an index that measures house prices across metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and the price elasticity of housing supply to capture the latter. To show how variation in the these housing market factors not only affects cross-city migration but also the housing and labor markets, I estimate a VAR model of migration, employment, wages, house prices, and new housing supply using annual data from 277 US MSAs for 1990–2006. The response functions based on labor supply and demand shocks show substantial variation when evaluated at different values of the homeownership rate, the price elasticity of housing supply, and relative housing prices. I also allow for spillover effects in the model that reflect the impact of a labor demand shock in the nearest city.

Estimates of the population prevalence of injection drug users among hispanic residents of large US metropolitan areas.

Little information exists on the population prevalence or geographic distribution of injection drug users (IDUs) who are Hispanic in the USA. Here, we present yearly estimates of IDU population prevalence among Hispanic residents of the 96 most populated US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992-2002. First, yearly estimates of the proportion of IDUs who were Hispanic in each MSA were created by combining data on (1) IDUs receiving drug treatment services in Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)'s Treatment Entry Data System, (2) IDUs being tested in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV-Counseling and Testing System, and (3) incident AIDS diagnoses among IDUs, supplemented by (4) data on IDUs who were living with AIDS. Then, the resulting proportions were multiplied by published yearly estimates of the number of IDUs of all racial/ethnic groups in each MSA to produce Hispanic IDU population estimates. These were divided by Hispanic population data to produce population prevalence rates. Time trends were tested using mixed-effects regression models. Hispanic IDU prevalence declined significantly on average (1992 mean = 192, median = 133; 2002 mean = 144, median = 93; units are per 10,000 Hispanics aged 15-64). The highest prevalence rates across time tended to be in smaller northeastern MSAs. Comparing the last three study years to the first three, prevalence decreased in 82% of MSAs and increased in 18%. Comparisons with data on drug-related mortality and hepatitis C mortality supported the validity of the estimates. Generally, estimates of Hispanic IDU population prevalence were higher than published estimates for non-Hispanic White residents and lower than published estimates for non-Hispanic Black residents. Further analysis indicated that the proportion of IDUs that was Hispanic decreased in 52% and increased in 48% of MSAs between 2002 and 2007. The estimates resulting from this study can be used to investigate MSA-level social and economic factors that may have contributed to variations across MSAs and to help guide prevention program planning for Hispanic IDUs within MSAs. Future research should attempt to determine to what extent these trends are applicable to Hispanic national origin subgroups.

Relationships between the Growth of Ethnic Groups and Socioeconomic Conditions in US Metropolitan Areas

Growth of the three largest US ethnic minorities (Hispanics, blacks, and Asians) is compared against three socioeconomic conditions-income, poverty, and employment-in US metropolitan statistical areas. The literature on the geography of ethnicity, particularly its social and economic findings, needed additional data collection and analysis. Findings from this research demonstrate that the social and economic characteristics of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians differed between central and suburban cities, and were more important descriptors and explanatory factors for socioeconomic changes in central cities than in suburban cities between 1990 and 2000. Growth among blacks and Hispanics, but not Asians, affected socioeconomic changes in those groups in central cities and suburban cities in U.S. metropolitan areas. These findings support the perception of overall improved socioeconomic status in these central and suburban cities for black and Hispanic growth.

Drug Arrests and Injection Drug Deterrence

We tested the hypothesis that higher rates of previous hard drug-related arrests predict lower rates of injection drug use. We analyzed drug-related arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Program for 93 large US metropolitan statistical areas in 1992 to 2002 to predict previously published annual estimates of the number of injection drug users (IDUs) per 10,000 population. In linear mixed-effects regression, hard drug-related arrest rates were positively associated (parameter = +1.59; SE = 0.57) with the population rate of IDUs in 1992 and were not associated with change in the IDU rate over time (parameter = -0.15; SE = 0.39). Deterrence-based approaches to reducing drug use seem not to reduce IDU prevalence. Alternative approaches such as harm reduction, which prevents HIV transmission and increases referrals to treatment, may be a better foundation for policy.

Does wage differential driven migration continue to exist? Tests on the role of regional economic structure in wage differential driven migration

This paper explores the role of regional economic structure in the wage differential driven migration among the US Metropolitan Statistical Areas for three discrete time periods from 1993 to 2004. Rapidly increasing interregional trade attributes to the restructuring process of production internationally and interregionally. Both trade and migration can contribute to the equilibrium conditions in regional labor markets. When fragmentation increases intra-industry trade (IIT) in interregional trade, do we expect to see the increasing roles of interregional trade toward the equilibrium condition in regional labor markets? Fragmentation may force some production stages to the other regions, in other words, firms may benefit from relocating to the regions where they can minimize labor costs with cheaper wage rates. In this restructuring process, similarities in regional economic structures may increase the volumes of IIT and as a result, we may expect to see the increasing complementary role of trade in factor price equalization to migration. In contrast, when regional economic structures are quite different, migration rather than trade plays more important role in factor price equalization. Consequently, the main flows of interregional migration caused by wage differentials are more likely to be found among the regions where regional economic structures are dissimilar.

Household expenditures, wages, rents

New evidence from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Census of Housing indicates that expenditure shares on housing are constant over time and across US metropolitan statistical areas (MSA). Consistent with this observation, we consider a model in which identical households with Cobb–Douglas preferences for housing and non-housing consumption choose a location and locations differ with respect to income earned by their residents. The model predicts that the relative price of housing of any two MSAs disproportionately reflects differences in incomes of those MSAs and is independent of housing supply in each MSA. According to the predictions of our calibrated model, the dispersion of rental prices across low- and high-wage MSAs should be larger than we observe: High-wage MSAs like San Francisco are puzzlingly inexpensive relative to low-wage MSAs like Pittsburgh.

The Impact of Property Condition Disclosure Laws on Housing Prices: Evidence from an Event Study Using Propensity Scores

We examine the impact of seller’s Property Condition Disclosure Laws on residential real estate values. A disclosure law may address the information asymmetry in housing transactions shifting risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers and raising housing prices as a result. We combine propensity score techniques from the treatment effects literature with a traditional event study approach. We assemble a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004. The study finds that the average sales price of houses in a metropolitan area increases by an additional 3 to 4% over a 4 year period if the state adopts a Property Condition Disclosure Law, which is consistent with approximately a 19 basis point or 6.4% reduction in the risk premium associated with purchasing owner-occupied housing. When we compare the results from parametric and semi-parametric (propensity score) event analyses, we find that the semi-parametric analysis generates moderately larger estimated effects of the law on housing prices.

Environmental conditions, political economy, and rates of injection drug use in large US metropolitan areas 1992–2002

City-specific studies have suggested the quality of the local environment and economic circumstances are associated with greater risk of injection drug use (IDU). No studies have assessed the relation among the quality of the local environment, economic circumstances, and IDU over time across US metropolitan areas. Annual numbers of IDUs in the 88 largest US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) were estimated by extrapolating, adjusting, and allocating existing estimates using various data sources. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the relation among the quality of the local environment, metropolitan political economy, and IDU prevalence using lagged models taking into account potential confounders. MSAs with a worse local environment (measured as a one standard deviation difference) had a greater risk of IDU (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.06); similarly, a one-percentage point worsening of the political economy for an MSA was associated with greater risk of IDU (RR = 1.04–1.10). Final models stratified by region indicated heterogeneity of effect by region whereby the quality of the local environment was associated with IDU strongest in the South (RR = 1.12, CI: 1.05, 1.12) followed by the West (RR = 1.04, CI: 1.01, 1.07) and Midwest (RR = 1.03, CI: 1.00, 1.06), and the metropolitan political economy was associated with IDU in the West (RR = 1.03–1.09) and Northeast (RR = 1.04–1.12). Our results underscore the importance of sociopolitical factors as determinants of IDU in MSAs. Structural solutions targeted at improving environmental conditions and economic circumstances should be considered as drug use interventions.

Cross-Cultural Issues and Health Care Advocacy for Immigrants in North Carolina

**Fine-grained epidemiological modeling of the spread of SARS-CoV-2---capturing who is infected at which locations---can aid the development of policy responses that account for heterogeneous risks of different locations as well as the disparities in infections among different demographic groups. Here, we develop a metapopulation SEIR disease model that uses dynamic mobility networks, derived from US cell phone data, to capture the hourly movements of millions of people from local neighborhoods (census block groups, or CBGs) to points of interest (POIs) such as restaurants, grocery stores, or religious establishments. We simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from March 1--May 2, 2020 among a population of 98 million people in 10 of the largest US metropolitan statistical areas. We show that by integrating these mobility networks, which connect 57k CBGs to 553k POIs with a total of 5.4 billion hourly edges, even a relatively simple epidemiological model can accurately capture the case trajectory despite dramatic changes in population behavior due to the virus. Furthermore, by modeling detailed information about each POI, like visitor density and visit length, we can estimate the impacts of fine-grained reopening plans: we predict that a small minority of "superspreader" POIs account for a large majority of infections, that reopening some POI categories (like full-service restaurants) poses especially large risks, and that strategies restricting maximum occupancy at each POI are more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our models also predict higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socio-economic groups solely from differences in mobility: disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and the POIs they visit (even within the same category) tend to be smaller, more crowded, and therefore more dangerous. By modeling who is infected at which locations, our model supports fine-grained analyses that can inform more effective and equitable policy responses to SARS-CoV-2**.

HIV prevalence rates among injection drug users in 96 large US metropolitan areas, 1992-2002.

This research presents estimates of HIV prevalence rates among injection drug users (IDUs) in large US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during 1992-2002. Trend data on HIV prevalence rates in geographic areas over time are important for research on determinants of changes in HIV among IDUs. Such data also provide a foundation for the design and implementation of structural interventions for preventing the spread of HIV among IDUs. Our estimates of HIV prevalence rates among IDUs in 96 US MSAs during 1992-2002 are derived from four independent sets of data: (1) research-based HIV prevalence rate estimates; (2) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Voluntary HIV Counseling and Testing data (CDC CTS); (3) data on the number of people living with AIDS compiled by the CDC (PLWAs); and (4) estimates of HIV prevalence in the US. From these, we calculated two independent sets of estimates: (1) calculating CTS-based Method (CBM) using regression adjustments to CDC CTS; and (2) calculating the PLWA-based Method (PBM) by taking the ratio of the number of injectors living with HIV to the numbers of injectors living in the MSA. We take the mean of CBM and PBM to calculate over all HIV prevalence rates for 1992-2002. We evaluated trends in IDU HIV prevalence rates by calculating estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for each MSA. During 1992-2002, HIV prevalence rates declined in 85 (88.5%) of the 96 MSAs, with EAPCs ranging from -12.9% to -2.1% (mean EAPC=-6.5%; p<0.01). Across the 96 MSAs, collectively, the annual mean HIV prevalence rate declined from 11.2% in 1992 to 6.2 in 2002 (EAPC, -6.4%; p<0.01). Similarly, the median HIV prevalence rate declined from 8.1% to 4.4% (EAPC, -6.5%; p<0.01). The maximum HIV prevalence rate across the 11 years declined from 43.5% to 22.8% (EAPC, -6.7%; p<0.01). Declining HIV prevalence rates may reflect high continuing mortality among infected IDUs, as well as primary HIV prevention for non-infected IDUs and self-protection efforts by them. These results warrant further research into the population dynamics of disease progression, access to health services, and the effects of HIV prevention interventions for IDUs.