The Arabian Sea is important in global biogeochemistry because of its high rates of primary production, its extensive zone of oxygen depletion and denitrification, and its expected strong response to global warming via ocean-atmosphere feedbacks to monsoon winds and upwelling intensity. Monsoon-driven upwelling leads to higher rates of primary production during the summer. However, the Arabian Sea paradoxically produces a weak and delayed phytoplankton response compared to other physically dynamic upwelling systems, and indeed has many of the characteristics of a high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) regime. Thick blooms of large diatoms are uniquely not evident in the Arabian Sea despite apparently abundant nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and silicate), seed stocks and hydrographic conditions that appear conducive. The subdued bloom response shifts carbon export offshore of the coastal upwelling area and delays major flux events until the latter stages of the SW Monsoon.While the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study in the Arabian Sea concluded that these observations can be explained by top-down control of primary production by grazers, recent data suggest that primary production may be limited by iron, consistent with other upwelling regimes. In this review, we examine the evidence for each hypothesis and offer some explanations that are consistent with both control mechanisms. We also assess how each hypothesis might explain how shifts in monsoon intensity and duration associated with climate change will affect Arabian Sea biogeochemistry. A strengthening monsoon will exacerbate iron limitation. This will lead to an eastward shift in the utilization of upwelled nutrients and intensify the oxygen minimum zone. A weakening monsoon will probably make iron limitation less important in the system.
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