US Influence Research Articles

Navigating US–China Rivalry in a Multi-aligned Middle East: Understanding India’s Shifting Strategy Towards the Region

Indian economic and strategic involvement in the Middle East has seen a transformation over the past two decades. This development has happened as many observers remark a gradual decline of US influence juxtaposed with China’s growing presence in the region. This article aims to assess how India has managed its bilateral relations with China within this region of increasing economic and strategic interest. Despite a growing literature on the China-India rivalry in Southeast Asia, South Asia or Central Asia, there is a notable dearth of scholarship on the China–India rivalry and its implications in the Middle East. Filling this gap, this article focuses on explaining how India has adapted its policies towards China’s rising influence in Middle Eastern politics. The core argument is that India’s strategy has been shaped by both a perception of declining US’ engagement in the Middle East and by opportunities created by new strategic hedging strategies from key regional players such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran. The article determines that India moved over the last decade from a strategy of buck-passing on US’ security provision to one of partial soft balancing of China’s strategic presence in the Middle East. However, the article also notes the limitations of standard theories of balance-of-power and strategic hedging to account for India’s multifaceted approach towards a regional order in flux.

The War in Ukraine and Russia’s Quest to Reshape the World Order

Moscow is actively using the conflict in Ukraine to advance its vision of a different international order. This vision emphasises a world fragmented into spheres of influence centred on a handful of ‘civilisational states’ embodying distinct political cultures not necessarily compatible with liberalism and democracy. Russia uses its own sphere of influence in Eurasia as the incubator of an alternative set of norms and institutions that it seeks to socialise globally. This Russian vision appeals to other revisionist powers, notably China and Iran, which support Russia’s war in Ukraine largely out of a desire to diminish US influence and consolidate their own regional spheres. Elements of it also appeal across the Global South, now a key arena for competition over the future global order. The outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine is perhaps the most important determinant of what the coming world order will look like.

The Role of the United States in the Formation of BRICS

This article critically examines the formation of the BRICS alliance, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with a specific focus on the pivotal role played by the United States in shaping this strategic partnership. It explores the extent of US influence and the accompanying responsibilities it assumes within the alliance. The article highlights the proactive efforts of Brazil, Russia, and China to expand their global influence while concurrently aiming to reduce US interference. Brazil, in particular, seeks partnerships with Russia and China as a means to attain autonomy and foster development. Simultaneously, Russia and China strive to challenge US global dominance and solidify their own spheres of influence. The article concludes by emphasising the importance of critically evaluating Europe's military support to Ukraine, suggesting that such support may primarily serve US interests. Additionally, it underscores Europe's potential to promote peace and stability by pursuing independent and principled foreign policies.

Gangs and the Culture of Violence in El Salvador (What role did the US play?)

Gang violence in El Salvador has resulted in conditions that have perpetuated an environment of terror and culture of violence. This paper aims to understand the emergence of transnational gangs in El Salvador and the US involvement in this process. The article is divided into the following subtitles; 1980s civil war and the repercussions of US involvement, Salvadorans migration to the US and reverse migration (with a focus on Los Angeles and San Salvador), and US exportation of heavy-handed policies to El Salvador’s institutionalized use of political violence. The paper concludes that US involvement in El Salvador created a foundation for a culture of violence and through interlinked factors US influence and actions instigated circumstances for gang proliferated in El Salvador.

The time-varying dynamic impact of US renewable energy prices on agricultural prices in China: the case of fuel ethanol.

This paper intends to look into the time-varying dynamic impact of US fuel ethanol, one of the renewable energy sources, on the prices of agricultural products (specifically corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat) in China based on monthly price data from January 2000 to January 2023. To achieve this, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is employed, which takes into account structural changes in emergencies through time-varying parameters. The empirical results show that the equal-interval impulse responses of price fluctuations in agricultural commodities are primarily positive to variations in fuel ethanol prices and production. And the intensity and direction of the effects vary at distinct time lags. Additionally, the magnitude of these responses is most pronounced in the short term for all agricultural commodities except for corn, and the duration of the impulse responses at different time points is generally longer for corn prices compared to other commodities. The study also reveals that the influence of US fuel ethanol on Chinese agricultural commodity prices is not substantial on the whole. Therefore, there is a necessity to advance the growth of biofuels and provide policy support and financial subsidies for agricultural products earmarked for food production. These actions could shed insights into the progression of Chinese renewable energy and food policies, ensuring the stability of the market in the long run.

Carbapenem use in extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals and influence of IDSA guidance: a retrospective cohort study

Disparate and rapidly changing practice recommendations from major professional infectious diseases societies for managing non-severe infections caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales might hamper carbapenem stewardship. We aimed to understand the real-world management of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ECR) Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals and factors influencing preference for carbapenems over alternative treatments. This retrospective cohort study included adults (aged ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with ECR Enterobacterales infections in the PINC AI database. Antibiotic regimens were assessed during empirical and targeted treatment periods and by infection severity and site. Likelihood of receiving targeted carbapenems over time and before or after initial release of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guidance on Sept 8, 2020, was established with generalised estimating equations controlling for patient, hospital, and temporal confounders. Between Jan 1, 2018, and Dec 31, 2021, 30 041 inpatient encounters with ECR Enterobacterales infections were identified at 168 US hospitals, of which 16 006 (53·3%) encounters were in women and 14 035 (46·7%) were in men, with a mean age of 67·3 years (SD 15·1). Although few patients received carbapenems empirically (5324 [17·7%] of 30 041), many did so as targeted treatment (17 518 [58·3%] of 30 041), including subgroups of patients without septic shock (3031 [45·6%] of 6651) and patients with urinary tract infections without septic shock (1845 [46·8%] of 3943) in whom specific narrower-spectrum alternatives were active. Transitions from non-carbapenem to carbapenem antibiotics occurred most often on the day that the ECR phenotype was reported, regardless of illness severity. Carbapenems were the predominant choice to treat ECR Enterobacterales infections over time (adjusted odds ratio 1·00 [95% CI 1·00-1·00]), with no additional immediate change (1·07 [0·95-1·20]) or sustained change (0·99 [0·98-1·00]) after IDSA guidance release. High carbapenem use in targeting non-severe ECR Enterobacterales infections in US hospitals predates 2020 IDSA guidance and has persisted thereafter. Efforts to increase awareness and implementation of recommendations among clinicians to use carbapenem-sparing alternatives in ECR Enterobacterales infections might decrease global carbapenem selective pressure. US National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and US Food and Drug Administration.

미국 · 중국 · 한국 거시경제변수가 한국 주식수익률 및 변동성 지수 변화율에 미치는 영향 분석

Purpose - This article analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables of the United States, China, and Korea on KOSPI and VKOSPI, in that United States and China have a great influence on Korea, having an export-driven economy. Design/methodology/approach - The influence of US, China, and Korea interest rates, industrial production index, consumer price index, US employment index, Chinese real estate index, and Korea's foreign exchange reserves on KOSPI and VKOSPI is analyzed on monthly basis from Jan 2012 to Aug 2023, using multifactor model. Findings - The KOSPI showed a positive relationship with the U.S. industrial production index and Korea's foreign exchange reserves, and a negative relationship with the U.S. employment index and Chinese real estate index. The VKOSPI showed a positive relationship with the Chinese consumer price index, and a negative relationship with the U.S. interest rates, and Korean foreign exchange reserves. Next, dividing the analysis into two periods with the Covid crisis and the analysis by country, the impact of US macroeconomic variables on KOSPI was greater than Chinese ones and the impact of Chinese macroeconomic variables on VKOSPI was greater than US ones. The result of the forward predictive failure test confirmed that it was appropriate to divide the period into two periods with economic event, the Covid Crisis. After the Covid crisis, the impact of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI increased. This reflects the financial market co-movements due to governments' policy coordination and central bank liquidity supply to overcome the crisis in the pandemic situation. Research implications or Originality - This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI simultaneously. In addition, the leverage effect can also be confirmed through the relationship between macroeconomic variables and KOSPI and VKOSPI. This article examined the fundamental changes in the Korean and global financial markets following the shock of Corona by applying this research model before and after Covid crisis.

Jakarta: Taking the field seriously

We respond as the Jakarta Collective to Prathiwi Putri’s constructive critique of Leitner and Sheppard’s research on Jakarta’s kampungs, to make visible the broader cluster of scholarship surrounding their research. Deploying six binaries, postcolonialism versus neoliberalism, non-capitalism versus capitalism, agency versus structure, displacement versus dispossession, and individual versus collective action, Putri suggests that Leitner and Sheppard stress the former while neglecting the latter. By taking the field seriously, we argue that the research of the Collective approaches these dialectically, teasing out their complex interrelations. Changes in Jakarta’s kampungs reflect its hybrid more-than-capitalist political economy, at the intersection of US and Chinese influence. The displacement of kampungs and kampung residents’ practices subsidize capitalism but they also contest its norms. Residents’ agency is significant; some gain but others lose, they act individually but also collectively. Highlighting more-than-capitalist practices opens up possibilities for alternative futures rather than simply documenting capitalist hegemony.

The United States–China ‘tech war’: Decoupling and the case of Huawei

AbstractThis paper offers an analysis of US strategy in the unfolding United States–China ‘tech war’ and its consequences. We argue that a tech war is now underway, and that Washington is the driving force behind it. Here, we focus on the most impactful policy so far: the placement of Huawei and over 150 of its affiliates on the sanctioned Entity List. As a result, a decoupling between high‐end US tech and Huawei Technologies is well underway, if not already complete. However, the consequences of the sanctions have not been what Washington intended or expected. The company appears to have maintained its position as one of the world's leading innovators in 5G technology and remains a leading supplier of 5G base stations. The United States risks undermining co‐operation with China in other critical policy areas because the tech war is viewed as aggressive in Beijing. It has also exposed the limits of US influence over allies and third countries, many of whom are opting for Huawei's cheaper 5G infrastructure. Nevertheless, the expansion of this approach by the Biden administration suggests that, in future, Washington may prioritise security interests over commercial ones as it seeks to preserve as much US primacy as possible.

Реакция США на советско-западногерманские переговоры в рамках подготовки и подписания Московского договора 1970 г.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the reaction of the US government to the negotiations between the USSR and the FRG within the framework of the Moscow Treaty of 1970. The article pays particular attention to the assessments and opinions of the US administration on this issue, as well as analyzes the direct interaction between the two countries in the context of the discussion of the Moscow Treaty and the "new Eastern policy" of the FRG. For several years, the FRG has been able to develop and coordinate a new foreign policy strategy that takes into account the interests and correlates with all the main actors in the system of international relations. To achieve this goal, the author conducted an analysis of various sources, including memoranda, telegrams, correspondence and records of negotiations published in the collection "Foreign Relations of the United States," especially in the volume devoted to policy towards the Federal Republic of Germany. In addition, the author studied the memoirs of Richard Nixon's national security adviser Henry Kissinger and the memoirs of the Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Willy Brandt. In Russian historiography, the negotiations between the FRG and the USSR, as well as the signing of the Moscow Treaty, were studied mainly in the context of the Soviet delegation's strategy and the goals of the FRG. However, the author has approached this topic from the other side, taking into account the American view on these events. Analysis of the documents shows that Bonn demonstrated the ability to make independent decisions in the field of foreign policy, which raised doubts about the extent of the US influence on Western Europe. However, the negotiating process between the Soviet Union and West German diplomats aroused distrust among Washington's representatives, which indicates the difficulty of establishing trusting relations between the countries. The author's conclusion is that the negotiations within the framework of the Moscow Treaty of 1970 between the FRG and the USSR played an important role in the development of international relations during the policy of détente. The signed agreement contributed to the improvement of relations between the two states and the reduction of tension on the European continent. The FRG needed to constantly consult with its main ally, the United States of America. However, such actions aroused distrust among the representatives of the United States, which indicates the complexity that has arisen in American-West German relations. Studying the specifics of the American reaction is important for understanding the strategy and priorities of the US government, as well as the various factors that influenced the decision-making process of the White House administration.

Ultrasound in paediatric surgery: A meta-analysis review of its influence on postoperative wound healing and infection rates.

Ultrasound (US) has traditionally been recognised for its imaging capabilities, but its emerging role as a therapeutic modality in postoperative wound management, especially in paediatric care, has garnered significant attention. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the influence of US on postoperative wound healing and infection rates in paediatric patients. From an initial pool of 1236 articles, seven were deemed suitable for inclusion. Postoperative wound healing was assessed using the Redness, Edema, Ecchymosis, Discharge, and Approximation (REEDA) scale. Notably, there was a significant difference in wound healing patterns between the US-treated and control groups (I2 = 94%, standardized mean difference [SMD]: -4.60, 95% confidence intervals [CIs]: -6.32 to -2.88, p < 0.01), as illustrated in Figure 4. Additionally, a marked difference in wound infection rates was observed between the groups (I2 = 93%, SMD: -5.86, 95% CIs: -9.04 to -2.68, p < 0.01), as portrayed in Figure 5. The findings underscore the potential benefits of US in enhancing postoperative wound healing and reducing infection rates in paediatric surgical settings. However, the application of US should be judicious, considering the nuances of individual patient needs and clinical contexts.

Assessing policy transfer from the United States to the British National Health Service

ABSTRACT Much has been written about the claim that the British National Health Service (NHS) is becoming more like the US health care system, something a number of commentators view as a form of “Americanization”. Yet, that term is imprecise and unhelpful for rigorous analysis of what has, and has not, happened. This paper uses the lens of policy transfer to explore this issue, which provides a sharper insight into policy development. The paper examines the relevance of the Dolowitz and Marsh framework for the study of policy transfer from the US to the British NHS from 1979 onwards. In terms of the framework’s main research questions, the discussion of the potential US influence on the NHS case stresses the role of policy entrepreneurs in policy transfer. In terms of policy success, however, commentators suggest a mix of uninformed, incomplete, or inappropriate transfer. We conclude that Dolowitz and Marsh do provide a useful framework that asks relevant questions about policy transfer, which provides a more nuanced account of policy transfer from the US to the NHS than the crude term “Americanization”.

The tale of two titans: US and China's distinct impact on the global economy

This study employs a GVEC model to analyze the global influences of US and China's monetary policies. It reveals that a 25 basis point US interest rate hike prompts a -0.18 ppt change in foreign economies, predominantly indirectly via commodity price fluctuations and cross-country interactions. Conversely, China incites a -0.10 ppt direct effect, largely through the trade channel. In terms of foreign GDP fluctuations, the US accounts for a considerable 10.5 %, with its equity markets playing a significant role, compared to China's 2.3 % contribution. These results reveal distinct paths for US and China's global influence via financial and trade routes, respectively.

Embargo and Engagement: Assessing the Landscape of US-Cuba Relations

US-Cuban history is filled with many historical events. The history goes way back in 1900s when Cuba was a Spanish colony in the western hemisphere. The USA helped Cuba fight and win war against the Spanish. After that the relations entered into another phase. Cuba even stayed under the US influence due to threat of colonial powers. But major shift in relations came after the end of WW-II in the 1959 when Fidel Castro overthrew the regime of Batista after the Cuban revolution started in 1953 and ended in 1959 and rose to power. Initially the USA backed this activity of Castro but later regrated when the demeanor of Cuba changed and Castro brought communism to the island and nationalized all the lands previously owned by the USA. This led to an embargo imposed by the USA on Cuba which further halted the relations. Then in the Cuban missile crisis put the last nail in the coffin when Cuba and USSR worked together on deployment of nuclear missiles on the island. The was the only time after Hiroshima and Nagasaki Incident that a nuclear was at the shore. Since then, the US sanctions on the island has been tightening and denting the relations further. Every President that came to the oval office has been following the identical policy regarding Cuba. The major significant change came in the second term of Barak Obama when he practically took actions to bring warmth in the US-Cuban relations.

US “Outposts” in Latin America: Military-Technical Cooperation, Military Bases and Joint Exercises

The authors analyze the forms of interaction between the United States and Latin America in the military sphere. The relevance of studying this issue is due to the aggravation of relations between the collective West and Russia, as well as between the United States and China, within the framework of which Latin America acts as a zone of competition between the world powers. In this regard, the analysis of Latin American vector of US policy in the military aspect from the point of view of Russia’s strategic interests is particularly important. The lack of domestic scientific research on this problem greatly adds to its relevance. As for the novelty, based on the review of the world market of arms and military equipment (AME), this article determines the dynamics and the share of the American producer in the total volume of arms trade. In the context of military-technical cooperation (MTC), the authors also consider the peculiarities of the American military power projection on Latin America, which is a zone of exclusive interests of the United States. Among the key formats of interaction and projection of influence, the authors include the following: arms and military-technical supplies to the armies and security services of the states of the region; training of military personnel in Latin American countries; financing of armies and military units; cooperation programs to optimize the managerial and organizational functions of the Latin American armed forces, establishment and maintenance of various types of military bases, conducting joint military exercises. Using new factual material, we examine each of the listed forms and show the systematic and geostrategic nature of the US influence on the Latin American region in the military aspect. As for military trade, the authors identify the main partners of the United States in South America.

China’s Role in Conflict Mediation in the Middle East: Normalization of Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the 2023 Israel-Hamas War

The article discusses China’s evolving role in the Middle East, emphasizing its shift from economic and energy interests to a more active involvement in political and security matters. It highlights China’s mediation efforts between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which led to the normalization of diplomatic relations. The article explores the reasons behind China’s mediation, including its interest in easing tensions for its Middle East strategy, managing relations amid US-Saudi tensions, and demonstrating a broader political and security engagement in the region. The analysis includes the views of Chinese intellectuals who see the success of the mediation as a diplomatic achievement and a signal of the end of US hegemony in the Middle East. The article also touches on China’s stance on the Hamas-Israel conflict, noting China’s proactive approach and criticism of Israel’s actions while supporting Palestine. In a broader context, the article discusses China’s historical relations with Palestine and Israel and highlights China’s growing political engagement in the Middle East. However, at the same time, it also shows the limitation of China’s influence in the region. The analysis suggests that China’s diplomacy reflects a response to the changing dynamics in the region and its proactive efforts to shape the regional order amidst the decline of US influence.

The Political Influence of US and China Vaccine Competition in Southeast Asia on Potential New Security Issues for ASEAN Countries

Vaccine competition between the United States and China in Southeast Asia has been potential to create new security problems for ASEAN member states. Based on the constructivism perspective and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSC), this article analyses the relationships between the identity and interest of both states, US and China, who took certain policies and engaged in the vaccine competition in the Southeast Asian region. China with the political manoeuvre and US with the humanitarian endeavour in their narration, both had interests in terms of economic, politics, also geopolitics through their assistance to ASEAN countries. The authors argue that new security problems, such as the rising unemployment rates, the declining GDP, and the new pandemic wave, caused by this competition are the result of the absence of collective identity of ASEAN countries. Instead of prioritizing their collective identity as a regional community and forming regional security complex, ASEAN countries tend to respond by prioritizing their respective national interests. Therefore, this article offers the recipes where ASEAN member state should establish their collective identity, such as supporting the development of ASEAN vaccines in Vietnam and Thailand or establishing the ASEAN pharmaceutical company designates as the regional vaccine research and development site.

George W. Bush’s post-9/11 East Asia policy: enabling China’s contemporary assertiveness

It is commonly argued that China’s foreign policy and behaviour have become increasingly assertive since Xi Jinping took the reins of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This strategic transformation is seen as paving the way for a direct confrontation between China and the USA since the Trump presidency. Drawing on the logic of international order-building, however, this article argues that the groundwork for this strategic change was laid when Hu Jintao was leading the CCP and that what made it possible was George W. Bush’s China and East Asia policy after 9/11. Bush’s subsequent reduced interest in East Asia enabled China to fill the void left by an absence of US presence and influence in the region. This article asserts that American policy-makers may need to ponder what their order-building project to weaken and exclude an illiberal China should include.

Rewarding a friend: Does the World Bank direct non-commercial risk insurance to countries that support US foreign policy interests?

ABSTRACT Many scholars have investigated the politics of World Bank Group (WBG) lending, often finding that WBG loans are distributed in ways that advance US policy interests. However, the organisation’s other major activity, promoting foreign direct investment (FDI), has received little attention. This study fills this void in the literature, with attention to the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the youngest of the five agencies that collectively make up the WBG. MIGA provides multinational companies with insurance to protect their investments from non-commercial risks in host countries, such as the outbreak of civil war or government expropriation. Given considerable evidence that WBG loans support US interests, MIGA’s risk insurance may be similarly politicised. However, since MIGA is financially independent and prohibits political activity, we theorise that US influence operates informally through MIGA staff, who reward US-aligned countries to ‘please the principal,’ and hence ensure that the US continues to support the Agency. Empirical analysis based on over 1500 MIGA-insured investments covering 121 member countries over the 1990–2020 period shows that MIGA insurance is disproportionately rewarded to investments in host countries that support US policy interests. Our findings suggest that this politicisation is primarily staff-led.

동아시아 지역안보제도의 변화 연구

This thesis seeks to understand the causes of changes in the regional security landscape currently occurring in the Indo-Pacific region and analyze the impact of these changes on existing security systems in East Asia region. The US Indo-Pacific strategy which has been pursued in response to the rise of China and its challenges to US influence in the Indo-Pacific region, has precipitated the fundamental changes in the San Francisco System established in the Asia-Pacific region after World War II. The US-centered bilateral alliance network, which has been the backbone of the San Francisco system, continues to be maintained, but the US-led alliance system is reorganized in a way that allies are given new roles to respond to China’s multi-faced challenges. In addition, multilateral institutions, which has played a complementary role, seem to play a key role in the Indo-Pacific strategy along with bilateral alliance networks. Along with this, active cooperation and coordination with the off-shore security system symbolized by cooperation with NATO is also a significant departure from the existing San Francisco system. The emergence of a new security system in the Indo-Pacific region is bound to have a significant impact on the foreign strategies of major countries in the region, including Korea. Although this is a challenge for Korea’s foreign strategy the flourishing of minilateral cooperations also means that a space has been opened for Korea to play a meaningful role in minilateral cooperation in this region. The existing ASEAN-centered multilateral institutions which led regional cooperation in the East Asian region, is facing significant challenges. It was under pressure to find its place in the competition with newly emerging mini/multilateral cooperations and to improve ASEAN’s effectiveness and relevance itself.