US House Research Articles

From Congress to the States: Explaining the Emergence and Membership of Freedom Caucuses in State Legislatures

Abstract Since 2017, Republican lawmakers in a growing number of US states have formed ideological intraparty organizations, modeled after the US House Freedom Caucus, that seek to move state policy further rightward. What explains the appearance of these state freedom caucuses, and what kinds of lawmakers are more likely to join them? We show that the creation of these caucuses was initially motivated by concerns that state-level legislative Republican parties are too ideologically heterogeneous but has since been driven by conservative entrepreneurs seeking to spread freedom caucuses nationally. We also provide evidence that conservative legislators are more likely to join a new state freedom caucus, as one would expect, but also that, in a few states, lawmakers who are more electorally vulnerable lawmakers or lack internal influence have also been more likely to join. These findings underscore how state-level ideological caucuses can appeal to members’ multiple goals and serve as instruments of vertical polarization in a federal system.

Implicating Communication: An Analysis of the US House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure's Investigative Report of the Boeing 737 MAX Crises

ABSTRACTThe Boeing 737 MAX crisis, which started in 2018 and continued in 2019, has drawn researchers to investigate the events preceding and after the deadly crashes. The two accidents involving Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airways Flight 302 raised safety concerns over one of Boeing's flagship airplanes, the 737 MAX, occasioning a global grounding of the famous airplane. This study delves into the investigative report produced by the US House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure concerning the design, certification, and manufacturing of the 737 MAX. The study utilized qualitative analysis to examine the implicit yet impacting communicative elements embedded in the report. Through the analysis, the study identified patterns of organizational culture, corporate power or hegemony, and capitalism as emerging themes that may have contributed to the catastrophic accidents in 2018 and 2019. Implications for the Trans‐MOC model of organizational culture are discussed.

Paradoxical oddities in two multiwinner elections from Scotland

If you were a candidate in an election, would you prefer more support from voters or less? Put another way: would you prefer that your campaign staff persuade more voters to vote for you, or fewer? These questions seem silly, because of course you would want more support from voters. Surprisingly, when using certain voting methods it is actually possible for more voter support to produce a worse result for a candidate; such an outcome is a type of monotonicity paradox. In [1], we searched for various types of monotonicity paradoxes in 1079 single-transferable vote (STV) elections from a database of Scottish local government elections. The purpose of this article is to present in detail two of the most interesting elections revealed by our search. These two elections are arguably the most paradox-riddled real-world political ranked choice elections ever documented, perhaps rivalled only by four single-winner examples from the United States: the 2009 mayoral election in Burlington, Vermont ([2, 3]); a 2021 city council race in Minneapolis, Minnesota [4]; the 2022 Special Election for US House in Alaska [5]; and the 2022 District 4 School Director election in Oakland, California [6]. The first election we present is the 2017 council election in the Buckie Ward of the Moray Council Area, which demonstrated the most extreme instance of a committee size monotonicity paradox ever observed in an actual election. The second election is the 2012 council election in the Steòrnabhagh a Tuath Ward of the Nah-Eileanan Siar Council Area, which demonstrated upward and downward monotonicity paradoxes, as well as a no-show paradox. To contextualise these elections, as part of our discussion we indicate how often these kinds of paradoxes occur in Scottish local government elections.

Evaluation of transition to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) by 2052 in the United States

With the rising need to transition from fossil fuel consumption to renewables, the transportation industry is foreseeing large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). According to various studies, the petroleum resources will last until or around 2052. Utilizing the US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) published data on the number of registered vehicles by each state, the profile of vehicles by 2052 was forecasted using a time series. The vehicle profile comprised vehicles by each type classified as automobiles, buses, trucks, and motorcycles. This future profile became the basis of the quantification of total EVs by the end of 2052. Based on the available fuel economy data published by the US Department of Energy, the average energy consumption per mile (kWh/mile) of each vehicle type was factored into the energy demand calculation for 100% electrification by 2052. A roof-top solar photovoltaic system is easy to install on unoccupied roof space for US house owners. Obtaining the capacity of such a roof-top solar PV system acts as a good decision-making criterion for both house owners and developers. However, for city-dwellers living in multi-family residential buildings, the potential of utilization of roof-top solar PV becomes a subject of future work when effective sharing of resources for local power generation by renewables and development of community-shared EV charging infrastructure is concerned. How well EVs performed against internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in terms of fuel efficiency and reduced carbon emissions is a driving factor for this transition. For energy demand calculations, a base model was framed, and results were obtained by utilizing mathematical and statistical tools. After accounting for the effects of improved fuel efficiency or reduced energy consumption by EVs over time, the model was modified to obtain revised energy demand and, thus, effective energy generation required. Accordingly, the capacity of EV charging infrastructure required by each state determined the need for preparation by utility companies and local jurisdictions. With limitations on battery size and thus increased frequency for drivers to return for charging, additional fast chargers (level 3) at existing gasoline stations become an option that requires further assessment.

Proposed Nutrition Competencies for Medical Students and Physician Trainees: A Consensus Statement.

In 2022, the US House of Representatives passed a bipartisan resolution (House of Representatives Resolution 1118 at the 117th Congress [2021-2022]) calling for meaningful nutrition education for medical trainees. This was prompted by increasing health care spending attributed to the growing prevalence of nutrition-related diseases and the substantial federal funding via Medicare that supports graduate medical education. In March 2023, medical education professional organizations agreed to identify nutrition competencies for medical education. To recommend nutrition competencies for inclusion in medical education to improve patient and population health. The research team conducted a rapid literature review to identify existing nutrition-related competencies published between July 2013 and July 2023. Additional competencies were identified from learning objectives in selected nutrition, culinary medicine, and teaching kitchen curricula; dietetic core competencies; and research team-generated de novo competencies. An expert panel of 22 nutrition subject matter experts and 15 residency program directors participated in a modified Delphi process and completed 4 rounds of voting to reach consensus on recommended nutrition competencies, the level of medical education at which they should be included, and recommendations for monitoring implementation and evaluation of these competencies. A total of 15 articles met inclusion criteria for competency extraction and yielded 187 competencies. Through review of gray literature and other sources, researchers identified 167 additional competencies for a total of 354 competencies. These competencies were compiled and refined prior to voting. After 4 rounds of voting, 36 competencies were identified for recommendation: 30 at both undergraduate and graduate levels, 2 at the undergraduate level only, and 4 at the graduate level only. Competencies fell into the following nutrition-related themes: foundational nutrition knowledge, assessment and diagnosis, communication skills, public health, collaborative support and treatment for specific conditions, and indications for referral. A total of 36 panelists (97%) recommended nutrition competencies be assessed as part of licensing and board certification examinations. These competencies represent a US-based effort to use a modified Delphi process to establish consensus on nutrition competencies for medical students and physician trainees. These competencies will require an iterative process of institutional prioritization, refinement, and inclusion in current and future educational curricula as well as licensure and certification examinations.

China's Policy Response to Nancy Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan: The Influence of Nationalism Revisited

This article focuses on China's policy response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Pelosi's action triggered a surge of popular nationalist sentiments in China, but the response of the Chinese government was far less tough than what many popular nationalists had expected. The article argues that the Chinese government's policy choice in response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan did not depend on the demands of popular nationalists, but rather was based on a cost-benefit analysis according to its perceptions. The influence of popular nationalism on the government's foreign policy choices has been exaggerated owing to an overestimation of the government's reliance on nationalism for its regime legitimacy, and an underestimation of the government's control over public opinion and nationalist activities.

Housing search activity and quantiles-based predictability of housing price movements in the USA

Purpose Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility. Design/methodology/approach Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data. Findings The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.

The impact of US housing demand and supply shocks on the Australian economy: Analysis implementing a SVAR model

AbstractThis thesis develops an open economy structural vector autoregression model to determine how the Australian economy is affected by both a US housing demand shock and a US housing supply shock. Previous literature has either grouped Australia with other economies or has excluded Australia altogether. This leaves a significant literature gap in explaining how the Australian economy is solely impacted. The results of the model indicate both a US housing demand and a US housing supply shock significantly impact the Australian economy, with the most significant being the impact of a US house price shock upon Australian GDP which is large and persistent over time. The results contribute to the understanding of how Australian policymakers should incorporate the US housing market into policy decisions and central bank modelling.

The Political Geography of the January 6 Insurrectionists

ABSTRACTWhat are the local political, economic, and social conditions of the communities that sent insurrectionists to the US Capitol in support of Donald Trump? Using a new dataset of the home counties of individuals charged for the Capitol insurrection, we tested two prominent theories of electoral populism and support for populist leaders like Donald Trump—demographic change and manufacturing decline—and whether they also explain violent populism. We also examined the effects of local political conditions. We find that white population decline is a stronger predictor of violent populism and that counties that voted for Trump were less likely to fight for Trump. The effect of white population decline is even greater in counties whose US House Representative rejected the 2020 election results. These findings suggest scholars should resist assuming violent populism is merely an extension of electoral populism, and solutions to one will not necessarily remedy the other.

Adjusting starting points for initial price offers: the example of ibrutinib.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) allows the Medicare program to negotiate drug prices beginning in 2024. Based on the guidance in the statute, CMS has selected specific data items to use to adjust initial price offers for 10 drugs in the decision-making process. Although much of the data are publicly available, some of these data items will need to be collected directly from drug companies. A 2019 US House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Accountability investigative report collected a wide range of data from manufacturers of 12 high-revenue drugs that show what is available from the drug companies, including development costs, marketing, pricing, competition, and patent status. This article focuses on the data obtained for ibrutinib, an oral medication for treating hematologic malignancies, which is one of the only drugs reviewed by the committee that also has been selected for Medicare price negotiation. We examine data that can be obtained only from the drug manufacturer that the IRA has explicitly identified as being used to determine the price and suggest potential negotiation strategies for CMS in response.

Evaluating (in)experience in congressional elections

AbstractFrom the 1980s to the mid‐2010s, nearly three‐quarters of members newly elected to the US House of Representatives had previous elected experience; however, only half of the freshmen elected from 2016 to 2020 held prior office. In this article, we investigate emergence‐ and success‐driven explanations for the declining proportion of experienced officeholders entering Congress. In our analyses, we find that the advantages traditionally afforded to experienced candidates are waning. First, we show that inexperienced candidates’ emergence patterns have changed; amateurs are increasingly apt to emerge in the same kinds of contests as their experienced counterparts. We then show that experienced candidates have lost their fundraising edge and that—for certain kinds of candidates—the value of elected experience itself has declined. Lastly, we identify other candidate characteristics as strong predictors for success in modern elections. We demonstrate that these electorally advantageous identities overwhelmingly belong to candidates who lack elected experience.

The effect of female leadership on contracting from Capitol Hill to Main Street

This paper provides novel evidence that female politicians increase the proportion of US government procurement contracts allocated to women-owned firms. For identification, we use a regression discontinuity design on a sample of mixed-gender elections in the US House of Representatives. The effect grows over a female representative's tenure and concentrates in female representatives who are on powerful congressional committees. Changes in the pool of and behavior by government contractors cannot explain the result. The more gender-balanced representation in government contracting is not associated with economic costs.

Changing the Dialogue: Descriptive Candidacies and Position Taking in Campaigns for the US House of Representatives

Changing the Dialogue: Descriptive Candidacies and Position Taking in Campaigns for the US House of Representatives

Asymmetries in Potential for Partisan Gerrymandering

This article investigates the effectiveness of potential partisan gerrymandering of the US House of Representatives across a range of states. We use a heuristic algorithm to generate district maps that optimize for multiple objectives, including compactness, partisan benefit, and competitiveness. While partisan gerrymandering is highly effective for both sides, we find that the majority of states are moderately biased toward Republicans when optimized for either compactness or partisan benefit, meaning that Republican gerrymanders have the potential to be more effective. However, we also find that more densely populated and more heavily Hispanic states show less Republican bias or even Democratic bias. Additionally, we find that in almost all cases we can generate reasonably compact maps with very little sacrifice to partisan objectives through a mixed‐objective function. This suggests that there is a strong potential for stealth partisan gerrymanders that are both compact and beneficial to one party. Nationwide, partisan gerrymandering is capable of swinging over 100 seats in the US House, even when compact districts are simultaneously sought.

Partisan communication in two-stage elections: the effect of primaries on intra-campaign positional shifts in congressional elections

Abstract The influence of congressional primary elections on candidate positioning remains disputed and poorly understood. We test whether candidates communicate artificially “extreme” positions during the nomination, as revealed by moderation following a primary defeat. We apply a scaling method based on candidates language on Twitter to estimate positions of 988 candidates in contested US House of Representatives primaries in 2020 over time, demonstrating validity against NOMINATE (r > 0.93) where possible. Losing Democratic candidates moderated significantly after their primary defeat, indicating strategic position-taking for perceived electoral benefit, where the nomination contest induced artificially “extreme” communication. We find no such effect among Republicans. These findings have implications for candidate strategy in two-stage elections and provide further evidence of elite partisan asymmetry.

On the robustness of democratic electoral processes to computational propaganda

There is growing evidence of systematic attempts to influence democratic elections by controlled and digitally organized dissemination of fake news. This raises the question of the intrinsic robustness of democratic electoral processes against external influences. Particularly interesting is to identify the social characteristics of a voter population that renders it more resilient against opinion manipulation. Equally important is to determine which of the existing democratic electoral systems is more robust to external influences. Here we construct a mathematical electoral model to address these two questions. We find that, not unexpectedly, biased electorates with clear-cut elections are overall quite resilient against opinion manipulations, because inverting the election outcome requires to change the opinion of many voters. More interesting are unbiased or weakly biased electorates with close elections. We find that such populations are more resilient against opinion manipulations (i) if they are less polarized and (ii) when voters interact more with each other, regardless of their opinion differences, and that (iii) electoral systems based on proportional representation are generally the most robust. Our model qualitatively captures the volatility of the US House of Representatives elections. We take this as a solid validation of our approach.

Send more guns: Biden’s Fiscal Year 2024 budget plan for Africa

This paper examines US security policy toward Africa. It describes and analyses US security assistance to Africa and Biden’s security assistance budget request for Africa for Fiscal Year 2024. It also reports testimony of the commander of Africom at the hearings on the budget request held before the US House and US Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2023.

The Electoral Effects of Private Sector Positions: Evidence from the US House

The Electoral Effects of Private Sector Positions: Evidence from the US House

Influence Factor Analysis and Forecast of US House Prices Based on Linear Regression and Time Series

In the United States, house prices remain a perennial topic of interest for every resident. Beyond influencing individual housing choices, fluctuations in house prices play a pivotal role in shaping pleasant lifestyles and ensuring the nation's stable economic growth. The housing market, in fact, underpins the entire U.S. economic system. This study employed a multifaceted approach, utilizing both multiple linear regression models and time series analysis, to delve deeply into the factors influencing U.S. house prices. The research identified that residential construction spending and GDP are the most significant drivers leading to an increase in the American House Price Index (HPI). Additionally, through time series analysis, various graphical representations were constructed to visualize the quarterly trends in the American HPI, rendering the findings more comprehensible. In essence, this research offers a scientific foundation for future adjustments in housing price policies. It holds substantial relevance for all stakeholders in the real estate market, from buyers and sellers to developers and policymakers.

Attitude Decay, Event Salience, and Emotional Reversal: Chinese Cyber-Nationalism after Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan

This paper examines the associations between timing, events, and nationalist sentiments among the mainland Chinese Weibo users toward Taiwan following the visit of Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the US House of Representatives on August 2, 2022. Utilizing a dataset of 4,353 Weibo comments and employing a combination of regression and interview analysis, our study has revealed several key findings: (1) Nationalist sentiments have diminished over time, and this can be attributed to an increasing immunity to Taiwan-related topics among netizens, habitual mood control, and the processing of new information. (2) Military action against Taiwanese separatists has the potential to intensify nationalist sentiments among the Chinese public, possibly due to its perceived efficacy in countering threats to the country’s sovereignty. (3) Military action’s positive association with nationalism tends to be amplified if this person is a male user. (4) Nationalist sentiments in response to political actions are more likely to diminish over time. (5) Nationalist sentiments in response to military actions tend to rise more slowly or diminish more quickly among those in the China’s Southeast (i.e., the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang). (6) The events after PLA’s military drills around Taiwan have a tendency to dampen nationalism whether people’s expectations for government action are fulfilled or not. This research supports the theories of inoculation, telic hedonism, and information utility in explaining the diminishing of nationalist sentiments among different groups. Furthermore, it validates and extends the EPPM in assessing how events interact with gender and regional factors to incite nationalist sentiments. Finally, this study highlights the potential for integrating reversal theory with Maslow’s theory of need to better understand reversals in nationalist sentiments.