US Greenhouse Gas Research Articles

University leadership in island climate change mitigation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the University of Hawaii at Manoa's (UHM's) initiatives in achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions on campus and at the state level.Design/methodology/approachUHM has taken a “lead by example” approach to climate change mitigation in terms of working to meet the American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment, becoming a founding member of The Climate Registry, and providing university leadership in crafting the policy to meet Hawaii's Climate Change Solutions Act of 2007.FindingsUniversities are uniquely poised to play a role in not only climate change research, education, and community outreach, but also in the regional and national policy‐making arena. In the absence of federal legislation, states are paving the way to create binding US GHG reduction commitments – making crafting innovative and appropriate policy all the more important and meaningful at the state and regional levels.Practical implicationsThe paper discusses the multi‐prong approach UHM is taking in addressing the threats of climate change: from on‐campus GHG measurements and reductions to helping guide overarching state policy.Originality/valueIslands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. UHM has taken a comprehensive approach to addressing climate change, from forming strategic partnerships with the electric utility, to developing campus and state GHG reduction strategies, to helping mobilize planning for impacts like sea‐level rise. This paper presents the efforts of UHM, including faculty, student and administration‐led projects, specifically illustrating the role of Universities in meeting GHG reduction commitments through a “lead by example” approach at both the university and state levels.

The potential of water power in the fight against global warming in the US

The leading cause of climate change today is the burning of fossil fuels related to energy production. One approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, therefore, is to more actively switch to renewable technologies in the production of electricity, and reduce the use of fossil fuels in electricity production. This is the goal of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) legislation, currently in effect in 28 states across the country. In this paper we discuss the potential for water power development as one method to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions. We look at the potential from (1) new small/micro hydropower dams, (2) uprating facilities at existing large hydropower dams, (3) new generating facilities at existing non-hydropower dams, and (4) hydrokinetics. We analyze this potential by type, by state, and by its ability to satisfy current RPS goals. Finally, we consider the cost-effectiveness of developing these sources of water-based energy. We find that while water power will never be the complete answer to emissions-free energy production, a strong case can be made that it can be a useful part of the answer.

Assessment of US GHG cap-and-trade proposals

In 2007 the US Congress began considering a set of bills to implement a cap-and-trade system to limit the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM)—and its economic component, the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model—were used to assess these proposals. In the absence of policy, the EPPA model projects a doubling of US greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Global emissions, driven by growth in developing countries, are projected to increase even more. Unrestrained, these emissions would lead to an increase in global CO2 concentration from a current level of 380 ppmv to about 550 ppmv by 2050 and to near 900 ppmv by 2100, resulting in a year 2100 global temperature 3.5–4.5°C above the current level. The more ambitious of the Congressional proposals could limit this increase to around 2°C, but only if other nations, including developing countries, also strongly controlled greenhouse gas emissions. With these more aggressive reductions, the economic cost measured in terms of changes in total welfare in the United States could range from 1.5% to almost 2% by the 2040–2050 period, with 2015 CO2-equivalent prices between $30 and $55, rising to between $120 and $210 by 2050. This level of cost would not seriously affect US GDP growth but would imply large-scale changes in its energy system.

Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets: are they a bridge to the future?

Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.

China to surpass US greenhouse gas levels by 2010

China to surpass US greenhouse gas levels by 2010

Fuel-efficient cars enough to curb US greenhouse gases

Fuel-efficient cars enough to curb US greenhouse gases

Presidential Candidates Speak Out on Science Policies

Presidential Candidates Speak Out on Science Policies

The simple analytics of greenhouse gas emission intensity reduction targets

The Bush Administration followed its March 2001 withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol by a February 14, 2002 proposal for unilateral action to reduce the intensity of US greenhouse gas emissions, with intensity defined as emissions per unit of GDP. The idea is to focus on the rate of decline of the emissions intensity of the economy, rather than the total amount of emissions (though the two are obviously related). In this paper we examine the characteristics of a goal of a rate of decline in intensity. We present a simple model and show that in order to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of decline in intensity must equal the rate of growth of GDP. Additionally, we show that cost uncertainty can be reduced through the use of intensity reduction targets.

Potential long-term impacts of changes in US vehicle fuel efficiency standards

Changes in corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards have not been made due, in part, to concerns over their negative impact on the economy and jobs. This paper simulates the effects of enhanced CAFE standards through 2030 and finds that such changes could increase GDP and create 300,000 jobs distributed widely across states, industries, and occupations. In addition, enhanced CAFE standards could, each year, reduce US oil consumption by 30 billion gallons, save drivers $40 billion, and reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 100 million tons. However, there is no free lunch. There would be widespread job displacement within many industries, occupations, and states, and increased CAFE standards require that fuel economy be given priority over other vehicle improvements, increase the purchase price of vehicles, require manufacturers to produce vehicles that they otherwise would not, and require consumers to purchase vehicles that would not exist except for CAFE.

An evaluation of the level of ambition and implications of the Bush Climate Change Initiative

This article summarises the results of an evaluation of the Climate Change Initiative launched by President Bush in February 2002. The policy target to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the US economy by 18% between 2002 and 2012 can be considered modest at best. The Initiative is likely to result in a 32% increase in US greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 compared to the 1990 levels. The effort also falls considerably short of efforts of the EU, Japan and Canada under the Kyoto Protocol. The Bush Initiative advocates using intensity targets in the international climate change regime, but overlooks fundamental problems associated with this approach. All the same, the Bush Initiative is of political significance as it recognises the importance of the climate change problem and may improve the longer-term prospects for US participation in a global climate regime.

An evaluation of the level of ambition and implications of the Bush Climate Change Initiative

This article summarises the results of an evaluation of the Climate Change Initiative launched by President Bush in February 2002. The policy target to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the US economy by 18% between 2002 and 2012 can be considered modest at best. The Initiative is likely to result in a 32% increase in US greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 compared to the 1990 levels. The effort also falls considerably short of efforts of the EU, Japan and Canada under the Kyoto Protocol. The Bush Initiative advocates using intensity targets in the international climate change regime, but overlooks fundamental problems associated with this approach. All the same, the Bush Initiative is of political significance as it recognises the importance of the climate change problem and may improve the longer-term prospects for US participation in a global climate regime.

Cost-effective reductions of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases

To date, most of the focus on greenhouse gas emission reductions has been on energy-related CO 2 emissions. This is understandable since CO 2 emissions currently account for about 82 percent of the total US greenhouse gas emissions weighted by 100-year global warming potentials (EPA, www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions, 2001a). 1 1 As noted in EPA, 2001a, the concept of global warming potential (GWP) has been developed to compare the ability of each greenhouse gas to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to another gas over a given period of time. Carbon dioxide is the reference gas, consistent with guidelines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). US estimates of greenhouse gas emissions are typically presented in units of million metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE). Carbon comprises 12/44ths of carbon dioxide by weight. In order to convert emissions reported in teragrams (Tg) of greenhouse gas to MMTCE, the following equation was used: MMTCE=(Tg of gas)×(GWP)×(12/44). For example, a source emitting 1Tg of methane (GWP=21) would be emitting 5.73 MMTCE, as follows: (1Tg)×(21)×(12/44)=5.73 MMTCE. While any time period may be selected, the 100-year GWPs recommended by the IPCC, and employed by the United States for policy making and reporting purposes, were used in this report ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1999). The effect of selecting alternative time periods depends on the atmospheric lifetime of the gas in relation to the atmospheric lifetime of the reference gas (carbon dioxide). Thus, since methane's lifetime is about 12 years, its 20-year GWP is 56 and its 500-year GWP is 6.5. In contrast, the lifetime of sulfur hexafluoride is 3200 years and thus its GWP increases from 16,300 over 20 years, 23,900 over 100 years, and 34,900 over 500 years. However, a number of analyses suggest that the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol—methane, nitrous oxide, and the high-GWP (global warming potential) gases (HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6)—can make a significant contribution to cost-effective emission reductions for the US and other countries. Our current estimate for the US is a reduction in non-CO 2 emissions of 105 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) at $50/ton carbon equivalent in 2010. This paper provides a perspective on the current and projected emissions of greenhouse gas; outlines the potential methods for achieving emissions reductions for various sources; and summarizes several recent studies on the cost of reductions for the US and other countries. Although the paper does not specifically address the potential for reductions of these gases in individual countries outside the US and the European Union, its findings are generally applicable to many countries.

Emissions targets 'unrealistic' says US climate change body

One of the main organisations working for cuts in US greenhouse gas emissions says that targets specified in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol are unrealistic and will have to be re-negotiated.

Assessment of alternative soil management practices on N 2O emissions from US agriculture

Although agricultural soil management is the predominant anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2O) to the atmosphere, little is known about the effects of alternative soil management practices on N 2O emissions. In this study the NGAS model of Parton et al. (1996), coupled with a N and C cycling model, was used to simulate annual N 2O emissions from 2639 cropland sites in the US using both no-till and conventional tillage management scenarios. The N 2O mitigation potential of returning marginal cropland to perennial grass was also evaluated by comparing simulated N 2O emissions from 306 Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland sites with emissions from nearby cropland sites. Extensive soil and land use data for each site was obtained from the Natural Resource Inventory (NRI) database and weather data was obtained from NASA. The initial conversion of agricultural land to no-till showed greater N 2O emissions per hectare than conventional tillage. Differences between the two tillage scenarios were strongly regional and suggest that conversion of conventionally tilled soil to no-till may have a greater effect on N 2O emissions in drier regions. About 80% of the total emissions were from the Great plains and central regions mainly due to their large cultivated area. Croplands producing soy, wheat, and corn were responsible for about 68% of the total emissions with rice, cotton, and vegetable croplands having the greatest N 2O flux (6.5–8.4 kg N 2O–N ha −1 year −1) under either scenario. Model simulations estimate that the agricultural lands in the US produce 448 Gg N 2O–N year −1 under a conventional tillage scenario and 478 Gg N 2O–N year −1 under a no-till scenario. Model estimates also suggest that the conversion of 10.5 million hectares of cropland to grassland has a N 2O mitigation potential of 31 Gg N 2O–N year −1, (8.4 Tg carbon equivalents year −1). This value is similar in magnitude to many of the major greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction strategies currently being considered to help meet US GHG reduction goals. Thus the GHG mitigation potential of this conversion is substantial and may be a viable strategy to help meet GHG reduction goals.

Gore calls for action on climate change as Congress stalls

washington The Clinton administration hopes new scientific evidence of soaring global surface temperatures will persuade Congress to implement a $6 billion programme to curb the growth in US greenhouse gas emissions.

Using advanced technologies to reduce motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

This paper quantifies the potential reduction in US greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by using advanced-technology motor vehicles and low-emission bio-fuels. These two approaches are compared to a variety of other approaches to reduce transportation sector emissions. It is concluded that only strong fiscal measures can produce emission reductions as large as are available from advanced-technology vehicles and low-emission fuels. A technology strategy is offered that should make the benefits of these technologies likely to occur should the US enter into a binding agreement to limit US greenhouse gas emissions. Various policy scenarios that could result from such an agreement are presented with the result that the technology strategy to produce advanced-technology vehicles and bio-fuels remains the most viable and cost-effective approach to control the future growth of transportation-sector greenhouse gas emissions.

Is natural gas really the answer?: Targeting natural gas in US climate change mitigation policy

Since use of natural gas emits less carbon dioxide (CO 2) than other fossil fuels and CO 2 is an important greenhouse gas, policies to encourage greater natural gas use are often touted as one strategy to reduce global warming. In this analysis, we examine the impacts of lower natural gas prices, brought about by government initiatives or market forces, on greenhouse gas emissions. The most surprising result of this analysis is that lower gas prices appear to have little impact on US greenhouse gas emission trends. However, lower gas prices and commensurate overall lower fossil energy costs do defer energy conservation efforts, stimulate more energy use economy-wide, and may displace cleaner renewable sources of energy. These results argue for a careful examination of attributes needed to align policy options intended to increase efficient gas use and those intended to lower overall greenhouse gas emissions.

Agriculture and Climate Change

How will increases in levels of CO{sub 2} and changes in temperature affect food production A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO{sub 2} but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture hasmore » contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO{sub 2} from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO{sub 2} by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops.« less

Steps Toward a Cooler Greenhouse

In April a committee of the National Academies of Science and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine urged the Bush Administration and Congress to begin cutting emissions of greenhouse gases immediately. The risk of delay is great, and the cost of insurance against disastrous climate warming is cheap. Now the committee's panel on mitigation has issued a 500-page report describing just how cheap that hedge against a climate calamity could be. The panel found that it would not be unreasonable to expect that a 25% reduction in US greenhouse gas emissions might be achieved at a cost of less than $10 per ton of carbon dioxide or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases. In more familiar terms, that considerable reduction in greenhouse emissions would cost about $4.75 for each barrel of oil burned or $0.11 per gallon of gasoline. The most cost-effective measures for reducing emissions, are increasing the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings and activities, vehicles, and industrial processes that use electricity.