US Financial Crisis Research Articles

Topology Data Analysis of Critical Transitions in Financial Networks

We develop a topology data analysis-based method to detect early signs for critical transitions in financial data. From the time-series of multiple stock prices, we build time-dependent correlation networks, which exhibit topological structures. We compute the persistent homology associated to these structures in order to track the changes in topology when approaching a critical transition. As a case study, we investigate a portfolio of stocks during a period prior to the US financial crisis of 2007-2008, and show the presence of early signs of the critical transition.

Partially Overlapping Ownership and Contagion in Financial Networks

Using historical banking data for the United States from the years 2000 to 2015 we characterize the probability and extent of a financial contagion using a calibrated network model of heterogeneous interbank exposures. Both the probability and the average extent of a contagion begin to rise in 2007 prior to the US financial crisis. Including a common asset in the model increases both the probability and extent of contagion, especially during the years of the financial crisis. Based on rising institutional ownership in the banking industry, we introduce a partially overlapping ownership asset that devalues endogenously. The addition of this asset increases the extent of a financial contagion. Our results show that trends in capital buffers and the distribution and type of assets have a significant effect on the predictions of financial network contagion models and that the rising trend in ownership of banks by banks amplifies shocks to the financial system.

Conditional co-movement and dynamic interactions: US and BRIC equity markets

The present study attempts to capture conditional or time-varying co-movement and dynamic interactions between the US and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) equity markets across the sample period 2004 to 2014 by employing diverse econometric models. The sample period is further divided into three different sub-periods concerning the US financial crisis period, viz. pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The vector autoregression- dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic [VAR-DCC-MVAGARCH (1.1)] model and Toda-Yamamoto?s (1995) Granger causality tests are employed for the purpose of overall analysis in a multivariate framework. The results report the existence of time-varying co-movement between the US and BRIC equity markets, whereby co-movement between the US and Brazilian markets is found to be the highest, followed by the Russian, Indian, and Chinese equity markets. Dynamic interactions are also registered between the respective US/BRIC comovements during different sub-periods. The results have important implications for market participants and policymakers.

US Implied Volatility as A predictor of International Returns

This study provides evidence of the US implied volatility’s e ect on international equitymarkets’ returns. This evidence has two main implications: i) investors may find that foreign equityreturns adjusting to US implied volatility may not provide true diversification benefits, and ii) foreignequity returns may be predicted using US implied volatility. Our sample includes US volatility index(VIX) and major equity indexes in twenty countries for the period between January, 2000 throughJuly, 2017. VIX leads eighteen of the international markets and Granger causes seventeen of themarkets after controlling for the S&P-500 index returns and the 2007/2008 US financial crisis. USinvestors looking to diversify US risk may find that international equities may not provide intendeddiversification benefits. Our evidence provides support for predictability of international equity returnsbased on US volatility.

Economic innovation challenges: lessons learnt from the major financial crises in Asia

This paper discusses the lessons learnt from the two major financial crises with regard to their impacts on the economy of Thailand. In particular, the study compares the two major financial crises which have far-reaching impacts on the global financial system - the Tom Yam Kung crisis (the Asian financial crisis in 1997) and the hamburger crisis (the US financial crisis in 2008). The discussions on their impacts on the Thai economy are based on the Schumpeterian model of economic development. The results have shown that Thailand has brought the lessons from the Tom Yam Kung crisis to effectively protect its financial system in the midst of the global financial downturn caused by the hamburger crisis. The case of Thailand represents a paradigmatic case with valuable insights and experiences that can be applied to other economies.

Endogenous rise and collapse of housing price: An agent-based model of the housing market

On the basis of interviews with local real estate agents, this study develops an agent-based model of housing market to determine the cause of rise and collapse of US housing price during the years immediately preceding the US financial crisis (2007–2009). We study the key factors affecting housing price volatility, such as lenient financing and speculation. The dynamic simulation findings in the study show in concrete terms how lenient lending practices combined with speculation can lead to increased volatility in housing price, including sharp rises immediately followed by collapses. The exploratory work in this study will contribute to the understanding of the causes of housing bubbles and inform policy decisions.

The motivations of earnings management and financial aggressiveness in American firms listed on the NASDAQ 100

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the motivations of earnings management and financial aggressiveness levels in the big 100 companies listed on the NASDAQ 100 after the 2007 financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses two samples. The first contains 471 observations of 100 companies listed on the NASDAQ 100 for the period 2008-2012 and is used to examine the motivations of earnings management. The second represents 282 observations of companies listed on the NASDAQ 100 that use financial aggressiveness. The authors use a panel data model to analyze the effects of four explanatory variables (corporate governance structure, CEO compensation, CEO characteristics and audit fees) on both earnings management and financial aggressiveness levels. Findings The results of the investigation show the significant impact of corporate governance structure, CEO compensation, CEO characteristics and audit fees on reducing the earnings management and financial aggressiveness levels. Research limitations/implications The findings can be valuable to both investors and researchers. For researchers, the present work may help in explaining the motivations of earnings management and financial aggressiveness practices used by large American firms after the 2007 US financial crisis. For investors, this study serves to highlight the critical importance of corporate governance, CEO compensation and CEO characteristics in limiting such behaviors. Thus, investors are recommended to account for such variables in order to make effective investment decisions. As an extension to this study, researchers might consider other CEO psychological variables. Other market indices could also be considered in order to generalize and validate the results of the research. Practical implications Investors must take into consideration the corporate governance structure and ask for supplementary information about CEO characteristics to ensure better investment decisions. Originality/value In this paper, and in contrast to previous research, the authors test the impact of corporate governance structure, CEO compensation, CEO characteristics and audit fees together on the level of both earnings management and financial aggressiveness behavior for large US non-financial firms after the 2007 financial crisis. The authors show that older CEOs use less earnings management and financial aggressiveness. The findings can be valuable to investors, managers and regulators because they have implications for their interactive decision-making process.

Wholesale funding and the increase in construction bank-owned real estate in the US financial crisis

ABSTRACTThe housing crisis left some metropolitan areas littered with partially constructed subdivisions and developments. Most of these failed developments were built by small construction firms reliant on small banks for finance. Failed construction projects became bank-owned real estate (REO), prolonging the crisis and contributing to an uneven recovery. But there is little research on the spatial distribution or financial processes driving construction REO. I use a finance-as-spatial fix theorization to describe increasing interrelation between construction lending and global capital markets through wholesale funding, and the subsequent buildup of construction REO. Wholesale funding allows small banks to access money markets. Controlling for economic growth, the home price bubble, and financial institutions, I use a national panel regression to identify key factors associated with high levels of construction REO in urban areas. Consistent with a finance-as-spatial-fix analysis, the strongest determinant of construction REO was the type of capital flows into small banks.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Welfare Losses from Foreign Crises: The Impact of the US Financial Crisis on Mexico

AbstractWe modify the Gali and Monacelli small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, calibrate to Mexican data and simulate the impact of the financial crisis on Mexico, under floating and counter factual fixed exchange rates. The floating exchange rate ameliorates welfare losses for Mexico. They are greater under fixed exchange rates because the return paths to equilibrium are more volatile (higher variance) and output, consumption and employment impulse response functions (IRFs) overshoot. Monetary policy, inflation targeting with floating exchange rates, clearly reduced the welfare costs vis‐à‐vis other counter factual policies including consumer price index‐based Taylor rule, domestic inflation Taylor rule and fixed exchange rates.

Investice do drahých kovů a akcií

Investment in various assets is associated with returns and risks. Especially precious metals are considered profitable and safe. Our analysis for the United States in 2005 - Q2 2015 demonstrates that it is very questionable. In this period, which included the US financial crisis, precious metals were coupled with a greater price volatility and lower real income than was the case with stocks in the DJIA index. Even over a sufficiently long period, gold and silver were not a good store of value with positive real returns. Moreover, demand deposits were also more profitable than gold in the longer term after 1980. In the long run, contrary to the beliefs, precious metals may not to keep good value in the physical form or in the form of securities linked to the price development of these assets. Commemorative and historical coins with a numismatic value are the most appropriate investment in precious metals. However, this investment is also associated with some risk.

Does the form of ownership affect firm performance? Evidence from US bank profit efficiency before and during the financial crisis

Abstract We examine the effect of the form of ownership on the profit efficiency of bank holding companies (BHCs) before and during the US financial crisis. For the pre-crisis period, the difference in profit efficiency between privately held and publicly traded BHCs is small. For the crisis period there is no statistically significant difference. These unexpected results suggest that agency issues do not affect the relative profit efficiency of private and public BHCs, or more likely, that these are offset by pressures for efficiency from capital markets and managerial labor markets and the advantages of specialization, a very important consideration in commercial banking.

International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms

The role of financial firms in the transmission of financial shocks across countries is well recognized in the literature. However, contagion through non-financial firms has not received much attention. This study examines the role of financial vis-à-vis non-financial firms in transmitting shocks across countries using a dynamic conditional correlation analysis. We provide empirical evidence from a sample of 49 countries. A novel finding of our study is that non-financial firms play a more pronounced role in the cross-market transmission of shocks than financial firms. Financial contagion is positively related to the level of equity market development and bilateral trade intensity. It is higher during periods of US economic downturns and financial crises. Given that the extent of international contagion varies across economic states and is more prevalent in the non-financial than in the financial sector, this study has implications for global sector rotation strategies.

Returns, correlations, and volatilities in equity markets: Evidence from six OECD countries during the US financial crisis

We investigate the dynamic interactions between stock-market excess returns, time-varying correlations and volatilities in six OECD countries and the United States during the US financial crisis and its aftermath. Using the seemingly-unrelated regression (SUR) and panel-regression models with return, correlation, and volatility equations, we show that excess returns can explain both correlations and volatilities and that own volatility can explain both excess returns and correlations. However, we find that correlations can explain neither excess returns nor volatilities. We find new and important evidence that ‘excess returns,’ ‘US excess returns,’ and ‘US volatilities’ should be included in the analysis of other countries' correlations and volatilities. The US T-bill-LIBOR interest-rate differential (TED spread) and foreign-exchange market volatility (FXV) negatively affect excess returns; however, the credit-default swap spread's effect is insignificant. Our findings are robust with different definitions of the key variables; they also provide important implications for international risk diversification: as financial-market conditions (measured by the TED spread and FXV) deteriorate, the links between stock-market returns, correlations, and volatilities appear to be strengthened.

Cross country co-movement in equity markets after the US financial crisis

Purpose This paper aims to attempt to capture the co-movement of the Indian equity market with some of the major economic giants such as the USA, Europe, Japan and China after the occurrence of global financial crisis in a multivariate framework. Apart from these cross-country co-movements, the study also captures an intertemporal risk-return relationship in the Indian equity market, considering the covariance of the Indian equity market with the other countries as well. Design/methodology/approach To account for dynamic correlation coefficients and risk-return dynamics, vector autoregressive (1) dynamic conditional correlation–asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model in a multivariate framework and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model in mean with covariances as explanatory variables are used. For an in-depth analysis, Markov regime switching model and optimal hedging ratios and weights are also computed. The span of data ranges from August 10, 2010 to August 7, 2015, especially after the global financial crisis. Findings The Indian equity market is not completely decoupled from mature markets as well as emerging market (China), but the time-varying correlation coefficients are on a downward spree after the global financial crisis, except for the US market. The Indian and Chinese equity markets witness a highest level of correlation with each other, followed by the European, US and Japanese markets. Both the optimal portfolio hedge ratios and portfolio weights with two asset classes point out toward portfolio risk minimization through the combination of the Indian and US equity market stocks from a US investor viewpoint. A negative co-movement between the Indian and US market increases the conditional expected returns in the Indian equity market. There is an insignificant but a negative relationship between the expected risk and returns. Practical implications The study provides an insight to the international as well as domestic investors and supports the construction of cross-country portfolios and risk management especially after the occurrence of global financial crisis. Originality/value The present study contributes to the literature in three senses. First, the period relates to the events after the global financial crisis (2007-2009). Second, the study examines the co-movement of the Indian equity market with four major economic giants such as the USA, Europe, Japan and China in a multivariate framework. These economic giants are excessively following the easy money policies aftermath the financial crisis so as to wriggle out of deflationary phases. Finally, the study captures risk-return relationship in the Indian equity market, considering its covariance with the international markets.

Truck movement across the Canada–US border: The effects of 9/11 and other factors

The objective of this study is to isolate the effects of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the subsequent stringent border security regime on the levels of truck movement across the Canada–US border. A time series analysis, within an econometric system that rendered stationarity and used the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator, was performed to model these movements. The analysis represents a natural experiment on the variability of cross-border truck movements in the aftermath of 9/11. Annual truck crossing data over the period 1972–2011, disaggregated by the country of registration (US and Canada) and Canadian jurisdictions (provinces) were used in the analysis. The results indicate that in general, 9/11 have had a negative effect on the cross-border movement of Canadian and US trucks, but the impacts were more pronounced in the case of the US trucks. Other interesting results include an increase in the number of US trucks during the period that followed the last US financial crisis. The results also illustrate the importance of GDP in explaining the observed truck movements across the Canada–US border.

Growth and distribution after the 2007–2008 US financial crisis: who shouldered the burden of the crisis?

The post-1980 era witnessed an increase in the frequency and severity of financial crises around the globe, the majority of which took place in low- and middle-income countries. Studies of the impacts of these crises have identified three broad sets of consequences. First, the burden of crises falls disproportionately on labor in general and low-income segments of society in particular. In the years following financial crises, wages and labor share of income fall, the rate of unemployment increases, the power of labor and labor unions is eroded, and income inequality and rates of poverty increase. Capital as a whole, on the other hand, usually recovers quickly and most of the time gains more ground. Second, the consequences of crises are visible not only through asset and income distribution, but also in government policies. Government policies in most cases favor capital, especially financial capital, at the expense of large masses. In addition, many crises have presented opportunities for further deregulation and liberalization, not only in financial markets but in the rest of the economy as well. Third, in the aftermath of financial crises in low- and middle-income economies, capital inflows may increase as international capital seeks to take advantage of the crisis and acquire domestic financial and non-financial assets. The 2007–2008 financial crisis in the US provides an opportunity to extend this analysis to a leading high-income country and see if the patterns visible in other crises are also visible in this case. Using the questions and issues typically raised in examinations of low- and middle- income countries, we study the consequences of the 2007–2008 US financial crisis and complement the budding literature on the ‘Great Recession.’ In particular, we examine the impacts of the crisis on labor and capital, with a focus on distributional effects of the crisis such as changes in income shares of labor and capital, and the evolution of inequality and poverty. We also analyse the role of government policies through a study of government taxation and spending policies, and examine capital flow patterns.

Spillover effects of the 2008 financial crisis on NIE stock markets

ABSTRACTThis article estimates dynamic conditional correlations of stock returns across countries by using DCC–GARCH model and analyse spillover effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the NIE’s stock markets. The results show that there is no regime shift in mean equation of the correlation coefficient during the financial crisis. It may imply there are no mean spillover effects of the US financial crisis on the NIE’s stock markets. However, there are volatility spillover effects of the financial crisis sparked in 2008 from the US to the NIE’s markets.

Accounting quality, governance standards, and syndicated loan contracts

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine how firms’ accounting quality affects bank loan contracting in seven emerging markets and whether these relationships are affected by borrowers’ governance standards. Design/methodology/approach – The study sample period is 1999-2007 because the syndicated loan market was severely affected by the East Asian financial crisis of 1998 and the US financial crisis of 2008. The final sample includes 719 loan observations for 75 firms in seven emerging markets. Findings – The authors find that syndicated lenders provide loans with more favorable terms such as larger amounts, longer maturity and lower interest spread to borrowers in emerging markets with higher accounting quality. The authors also find that the influences of accounting quality on syndicated loan contracting for borrowers in emerging markets exist only with higher country- and firm-level governance rankings. The results of this paper suggest that lenders place more value on accounting numbers generated by borrowers in emerging markets with stronger internal and country governance frameworks. Originality/value – Overall, this research provides new insights about how accounting quality affects the contract design. Specifically, the extant literature has demonstrated the effects of accounting quality on financial contracts in developed countries (e.g. Bharath et al., 2008). The authors extend this analysis to borrowers in emerging markets and confirm a similar result. Most notably, the authors explore whether the relationship between accounting quality and syndicated loan contracts is influenced by borrowers’ country- and firm-level governance, and find that accounting quality matters only when accompanied by high-quality governance. This research provides new insights about how accounting quality and governance standards affect the terms of borrowing contracts in emerging markets.

Trade and Financial Channels as the Transmission Mechanism of the Financial Crisis

We examine the propagation mechanisms of the US financial crisis erupted in 2008 on the Asian economy, which was tightly linked to the US through export and financial relationships. While two possible propagation channels are identified in previous literature, the channels are not well analyzed using a micro dataset. Employing a firm-level dataset with the exporting information of Asian firms, we analyze the two channels, trade and financial channels, and find the following empirical results. First, the trade channel temporarily influenced the financing behavior of Asian firms exporting to the US, while it had no effect or only weak influence on cash holding and investment behavior. Second, the financial channel influenced the financing behavior of Asian firms, especially those with less availability of outside financing, through reductions in cash holding or investment behavior. Our results indicate that the influence of the financial crisis differed by transmission channel.

Dilemmas in post-crisis bank regulation: Supranationalization versus retrenchment

The US financial crisis that started in 2007 ultimately had global reach, but those countries most severely affected were the advanced industrialized states. In the United States and Europe, banks, many of which had regional or global profiles, were the source of nearly unprecedented economic instability. This special issue therefore examines the politics behind the re-regulation of banks after the crisis, focusing on the Transatlantic community. The volume finds competing impulses for enhanced international regulatory coordination on the one hand versus national retrenchment on the other. From these two dueling agendas flow three notable developments. First, despite evident functional pressures for a coordinated and global approach to bank regulation following the crisis, regional arrangements have dominated instead. Second, reduced international capital flows and bank activity were as much the result of national and regional regulatory measures as they were a function of market conditions. Third and finally, where national retrenchment has prevailed at the expense of international regulatory harmonization, we see risks for further international financial instability.