US Federal Funding Research Articles

Stock Return Prediction under US Federal Funds Rate Hike Based on Supervised Machine Learning

As US Federal Reverse Systems has continued to raise federal funds in the past few years in order to curb inflation, this has had a huge impact on chinese capital market. Investors and financial institude are actively engaged in predicting stock returns to maximize their investment income. This study constructs a model to analyze and predict the financial factor of stock income based on supervised machine learning methods and evaluate the results. The datasample is extracted from wind, for the period half a year before and after the recent federal funds rate hike. Utilizing machine learning packages in R, this paper construct models based on linear discriminant analysis, decision tree and random forest models. After constructing estimation models, this paper visualizes the prediction result by utilizing drawing package in R. It has been found that the random forest algorithm predicting model generates very successful results for the financial factor prediction as the model accuracy reaches 99%. According to the analysis, relevant model to predict financial factors and non-financial factors based on non-linear supervised machine learning algorithm can be built by investors or hedge fund agency to estimate stock performance in the future. This study also investigates the economic result of the Federal Funds Rate hikes, which is instructive for investors to make well-informed decisions.

Accelerating workforce development in the federal infrastructure moment and beyond

AbstractA surge in US federal infrastructure funding is accelerating a variety of transportation, water, energy, broadband, and other improvements nationally, with the potential to support millions of new jobs. However, continued struggles to recruit, train, and retain infrastructure workers—particularly younger workers, women, and people of color—may limit the reach and ultimate impact of this funding. This article—drawing from past Brookings Institution analyses on the infrastructure workforce—explores these struggles in greater depth and points to several steps that both infrastructure and workforce leaders can take to better harness new funding and support more durable workforce development strategies in years to come.

Monetary policy independence in an era of financial globalization: what theory suggests and the data in Oceania say

ABSTRACT This paper shows that under a floating exchange rate and integrated financial markets an optimizing central bank concerned about price and output stability partly accommodates a change in monetary policy abroad. A positive co-movement between the domestic policy rate and the foreign interest rate does not indicate lack of monetary policy independence but is an outcome of optimal policymaking in an open economy deeply embedded in the global financial architecture. Empirical evidence on overnight interest rate changes in Oceania (New Zealand, Australia) and US federal funds rate changes is consistent with this view.

Sử dụng transfer entropy đo lường dòng chảy thông tin từ các thị trường tài chính đến thị trường vàng: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại Việt Nam

Measuring the information flows between financial markets brings benefits for investors and policymakers. This study considers information flows from the US gold market, crude oil, Federal funds rate to the Vietnames gold market from 4th January, 2004 to 7th December, 2023 using transfer entropy. The data is collected from Fred.stlouisfed.org and World Gold Council. The results show that among examining factors US gold price has strongest impact on Vietnames gold, meanwhile, the gold market reacts more slowly the information from US crude oil market and Federal funds rate. The outcome provides a reference channel for investors to make decisions.

An In-depth Analysis on the U.S. Economic Cyclical Impact on the World Economy

After the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted a new round of target rate increases for US federal funds. The accelerated process of economic globalization has led to the spread of small-scale financial turmoil in neighboring countries, leading to larger crises, and to increasingly pronounced synchronized fluctuations in economic cycles among countries. Therefore, an in-depth study of the economic synergies between the U.S. and the rest of the world and a quantitative analysis of the world's economic transmission factors are of great practical significance in promoting the healthy development of the economy, reducing the negative impacts and influences brought about by the fluctuations of other countries' economies, and, in particular, in coping with the spreading of the economic crisis. The central idea of this paper will focus on the economic synergy between the United States and other countries in the world, first of all, it will introduce the background of the topic and the significance of the research, and then summarize the current research on the analysis of scholars on the impact of policy adjustments from the channel of capital flows, the impact on the developed economies, and the combination of empirical research in order to make it clear that in the big country game environment, U.S. monetary policy adjustments brought about by the impact of the multiple perspectives of multi-level research methodology. On this basis, we summarize the adjustments facing the world economy as the United States enters the interest rate hike cycle.

The Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Adjustment Cycle on the Price of WTI Crude Oil Futures

This article is based on monthly data from January 2016 to January 2022, including the US Federal Funds Rate and WTI crude oil futures price index. A TVP-VAR model is constructed to study the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycles on WTI crude oil futures prices. The research found a positive correlation between crude oil futures prices and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycles. That means that when the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the US Federal Funds Rate, it leads to an increase or decrease in crude oil futures prices. Therefore, it is believed that in the current context of global quantitative easing and the sustained rise in international crude oil prices, China should formulate a new energy strategy that matches the high-quality development of the social economy and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the crude oil industry.

Extramural US Federal Research Grants For Health Outcomes Associated With Climate Change Inadequate, Too Narrow In Focus.

Climate change causes and exacerbates disease, creates and worsens health disparities, disrupts health care delivery, and imposes a significant disease burden in the US and globally. Critical knowledge gaps hinder an evidence-based response and are perpetuated by scarce federal research funds. We identified and described extramural US federal research funding (that is, grants provided to organizations and institutions outside of federal agencies) that both addressed health outcomes associated with climate change and was awarded between 2010 and 2020. During this eleven-year period, 102 grants met our criteria, totaling approximately $58.7million, or approximately $5.3million per year (2020 adjusted US dollars). Federal investments in climate change and health research during this period failed to address the breadth of climate-sensitive exposures, health outcomes, and impacts on vulnerable populations. Moving forward, in addition to increasing investment in climate and health research across all known hazards, critical attention should be placed on vulnerable populations and health equity. To achieve this, increased federal research coordination and cooperation are needed, as well as a mechanism to track this funding.

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Purpose: This research aims to investigate the presence of monetary policy trilemma in the Middle Eastern region and evaluate the spillover effects of US monetary policy on the region. Theoretical framework: Middle Eastern economies follow the dollar pegged exchange rate policy with open capital account and this poses a question about the autonomy of the monetary policy stance adopted by the regional central banks. In this context, current research considers variables such as domestic interbank interest rate, domestic liquidity, oil price and federal fund rate to test the monetary policy trilemma in the region Design/methodology/approach: To investigate the presence of monetary policy trilemma in the Middle Eastern region, this research employs the time - varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression approach and selects a panel of five Middle Eastern countries which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait while considering the monthly data for the sample period 2009m10 until 2021m12. Findings: This research finds that a positive shock in US federal fund rate increases the domestic interest rates in the Middle Eastern economies. In addition, this research finds a negative relationship between oil price shocks and domestic interest rates. Whereas a positive shock in US federal fund rates induces a reduction in the oil price. Research, Practical & Social implications: Current research provides insights for policy makers to determine the autonomy of domestic monetary policy stance to achieve its broader macroeconomic objectives. . Originality/value:This research is unique as it examines the monetary policy trilemma while considering oil price as a control variable in the system under a time varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression specification.

Testing Monetary Policy Trilemma for Middle Eastern Economies Under a Bayesian Panel VAR Specification

Purpose: This research aims to investigate the presence of monetary policy trilemma in the Middle Eastern region and evaluate the spillover effects of US monetary policy on the region.
 
 Theoretical framework: Middle Eastern economies follow the dollar pegged exchange rate policy with open capital account and this poses a question about the autonomy of the monetary policy stance adopted by the regional central banks. In this context, current research considers variables such as domestic interbank interest rate, domestic liquidity, oil price and federal fund rate to test the monetary policy trilemma in the region
 
 Design/methodology/approach: To investigate the presence of monetary policy trilemma in the Middle Eastern region, this research employs the time - varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression approach and selects a panel of five Middle Eastern countries which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait while considering the monthly data for the sample period 2009m10 until 2021m12.
 
 Findings: This research finds that a positive shock in US federal fund rate increases the domestic interest rates in the Middle Eastern economies. In addition, this research finds a negative relationship between oil price shocks and domestic interest rates. Whereas a positive shock in US federal fund rates induces a reduction in the oil price.
 
 Research, Practical & Social implications: Current research provides insights for policy makers to determine the autonomy of domestic monetary policy stance to achieve its broader macroeconomic objectives.
 
 Originality/value: This research is unique as it examines the monetary policy trilemma while considering oil price as a control variable in the system under a time varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression specification.

A macroeconomic viewpoint using a structural VAR analysis of silver price behaviour

This article investigates silver price as a fluctuating commodity price since the financial crisis of 2007–2009. In this regard, a structural vector autoregression (VAR) was applied to observe the sensitivity of the silver price and future pricing due to changes in macroeconomic variables and to review changes in macroeconomic variables due to changes in the silver price. The main results show that the silver price is susceptible to changes in the gold price, increasing sideways. A shock to OECD GDP caused the silver price to increase which makes logical sense, thus showing a positive correlation between output and the silver price. A shock to the oil price caused the silver price to spike over the short term, then move sideways over the long term. A shock to the US Federal funds rate caused the silver price to dip over the short term, then increase slightly over the medium and move sideways over the long term, while a shock to the real effective exchange rate of the USA caused the silver price to increase sideways. The article sheds some light on the reactive status of the silver price to macroeconomic variables and its influence as a safe haven commodity.

국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석

Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

US FEDERAL RESERVE RATE AND SOLAR ACTIVITY (1955-2022): PROOF OF STRONG CORRELATIONS

The report uses a methodological approach founded by Jevons and Chizhevskij. The years of solar cycles have been numbered according to the order established in the astrophysics of the un, then grouped and compared with the arithmetic averages of effective rates for US federal funds. Grouping statistical data by serial numbers of years of solar activity cycles has made it possible to construct a function of effective rates on federal funds (dependent variable) and serial numbers of years of the average solar activity cycle (independent variable) with correlation coefficients on its four segments close to 1 (0.99499269, -0.998464195, 0.986985363, -0.996221106). This function enables predicting the values of the effective interest rate on US federal funds in subsequent years. It follows that in 2023 this rate will increase to 1.996%.

Mitigating challenges of collaborative science through team ethnography

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to expand the use of ethnography to advance research on team science by revealing the barriers to teamwork as manifesting at institutional, cultural, and interpersonal contextual scales. The analysis suggests strategies to enhance team science's collaborative potential.Design/methodology/approachThis paper considers some of the practical and analytical challenges of team science through the use of ethnographic methods. The authors formed a three-person subteam within a larger multisited, federally-funded, interdisciplinary scientific team. The authors conducted six months of participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and a focus group, using iterative deductive and inductive analyses to investigate the larger team's roles, relationships, dynamics, and tensions.FindingsIntegrating ethnography into the study of team science can uncover and mitigate barriers faced by teams at three primary levels: (1) academic culture, (2) institutional structures, and (3) interpersonal dynamics. The authors found that these three contextual factors are often taken for granted and hidden in the team science process as well as that they are interactive and influence teams at multiple scales of analysis. These outcomes are closely related to how team science is funded and implemented in academic and institutional settings.Originality/valueAs US federal funding initiatives continue to require scientific collaboration via inter-, multi-, and transdisciplinary research, there is little work done on how teams grapple with the practical tensions of scientific teamwork. This paper identifies and addresses many practical tensions and contextual factors across institutional and organizational structures that affect and challenge the conduct of collaborative scientific teamwork. The authors also argue that ethnography can be a method to challenge myths, understand contextual factors, and improve the goals of team science.

Impact of the 2022 OSTP memo: A bibliometric analysis of US federally funded publications, 2017–2021

AbstractOn August 25, 2022, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) released a memo regarding public access to scientific research. Signed by Director Alondra Nelson, this updated guidance eliminated the 12-month embargo period on publications arising from U.S. federal funding that had been allowed from a previous 2013 OSTP memo. Although reactions to this updated federal guidance have been plentiful, to date there has not been a detailed analysis of the publications that would fall under this new framework. The OSTP released a companion report along with the memo, but it only provided a broad estimate of total numbers affected per year. Therefore, this study seeks to more deeply investigate the characteristics of U.S. federally funded research over a 5-year period from 2017–2021 to better understand the updated guidance’s impact. It uses a manually created custom filter in the Dimensions database to return only publications that arise from U.S. federal funding. Results show that an average of 265,000 articles were published each year that acknowledge US federal funding agencies, and these research outputs are further examined by publisher, journal title, institutions, and Open Access status. Interactive versions of the graphs are available at https://ostp.lib.iastate.edu/.

Assessment of US Federal Funding of Incarceration-Related Research, 1985 to 2022

The US leads the world in the raw number of incarcerated persons as well as the rate of incarceration, with detrimental effects on individual-, family-, community-, and population-level health; as such, federal research has a critical role in documenting and addressing the health-related impacts of the US criminal legal system. How often incarceration-related research is funded at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF), and US Department of Justice (DOJ) levels has a direct association with the public attention given to mass incarceration as well as the efficacy of strategies to mitigate negative effects and poor health related to incarceration. To understand how many incarceration-related projects have been funded at the NIH, NSF, and DOJ. This cross-sectional study used public historical project archives to search for relevant incarceration-related keywords (eg, incarceration, prison, parole) since January 1, 1985 (NIH and NSF), and since January 1, 2008 (DOJ). Quotations and Boolean operator logic were used. All searches and counts were conducted and double verified by 2 coauthors between December 12 and 17, 2022. Number and prevalence of funded projects related to incarceration and prison keywords. The term incarceration resulted in 3540 of 3 234 159 total project awards (0.11%) and prisoner-related terms resulted in 11 455 total project awards (0.35%) across the 3 federal agencies since 1985. Nearly a tenth of all projects funded at NIH since 1985 related to education (256 584 [9.62%]) compared with only 3373 projects (0.13%) that related to criminal legal or criminal justice or correctional system and 18 projects (0.0007%) that related to incarcerated parents. Only 1857 (0.07%) of all NIH-funded projects have been funded related to racism since 1985. This cross-sectional study found that a very low number of projects about incarceration have historically been funded at the NIH, DOJ, and NSF. These findings reflect a dearth of federally funded studies investigating the effects of mass incarceration or intervention strategies to mitigate adverse effects. Given the consequences of the criminal legal system, it is undoubtedly time for researchers, and our nation, to invest more resources into studying whether this system should be maintained, the intergenerational effects of mass incarceration, and strategies to best mitigate its impact on public health.

Monetary shocks on the Korean stock index: structural VAR analysis

This paper investigates the impact of the monetary policies in 3 countries (the Republic of Korea, China and the United States) on the Korean stock markets (e.g., KOSPI), using a structural Vector Autoregression. We find that a positive shock in Money Supply (M2) in all 3 countries is positive to the Korean stock markets but the degree of the response differs from one another. Surprisingly, the response of the KOSPI was largest to China’s M2, reflecting that China is Korea’s largest trading partner. From the responses of Korea’s industrial production and CPI, we speculate that a possibility of liquidity trap was not ruled out in some periods. We also find that the KOSPI responded negatively to a positive shock in Korea’s policy rate while it rarely responded to the shocks in the China’s policy rate and the US federal fund rate. We consider that China’s policy rate did not affect Korea’s economic activities as it was not a main monetary policy tool. We also consider that Korea’s determination of policy rate was not fully free from the US monetary policy and thus any shock in the US federal fund rate was substantially mitigated in the KOSPI.

Federal Support Fosters Ocean Workforce Diversity Through Programmatic Investments and Community Action

This article highlights efforts across four US federal funding agencies (National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Office of Naval Research), each with differing, yet complementary, priorities and approaches to increasing and retaining diverse talent in ocean science education and workforce development. To understand the success and impact of our endeavors, we call attention to the need for meaningful evaluation of supported programs, which requires collecting and analyzing robust demographic data. Finally, we underscore the important role of federal agencies working alongside professional societies, national boards, and academic institutions in effecting cultural change and creating environments where the talents of all ocean sciences students, researchers, practitioners, and faculty can be fully recognized and supported.

Checking the Box

The context of compliance creates special challenges for research ethics education. It can serve as a positive force in promoting research integrity because it forces academic institutions to provide research ethics training, and it forces some people to complete research ethics training. However, when compliance mandates create patchwork coverage with inconsistent requirements, they can have the paradoxical effect of trivializing the very thing they intend to promote. After providing a background on research ethics education mandates from US federal funding agencies, I review the way in which academic institutions tend to respond to these mandates and I explore the impact of these compliance requirements on the goals of research ethics education. Finally, I consider recent calls to harmonize federal agency requirements, and close by sharing the way in which we are trying to harmonize the requirements at my own institution.

Effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation: evidence from Mongolia

This paper examines the effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (SBVAR). Ten structural shocks (three external and seven domestic shocks) are identified using a triangular factorization. The main results are (i) the measured bank liquidity creation (as a share of total assets) is procyclical and negatively correlated with the liquidity coverage ratio in the banking sector; (ii) external shocks (the US monetary policy, Chinese economic activity, and changes in the global commodity market) have statistically significant and economically major effects on the liquidity creation. Lending rate, NPL ratio, foreign exchange reserves, and competition in the banking sector are key domestic determinants of liquidity creation; (iii) liquidity creation’s main components respond differently to the US federal funds rate and lending rate shocks. External and financial shocks have contributed to the liquidity creation passing through movements in (illiquid assets + liquid liabilities) component; (iv) monetary policy can be an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument in stabilizing the economic and financial cycles.

Typology of conflict of commitment (COC) in the era of inappropriate foreign influence in research

ABSTRACT Conflicts, in the form of conflicts of interest and conflicts of commitment, have become increasingly prominent discussion points for US federal funding agencies and academic research institutions in the era of inappropriate foreign influence in research. Conflict of interest, specifically financial conflict of interest, is precisely defined within U.S. federal regulation precipitating the subsequent establishment of institutional processes for conflict of interest evaluation. Conflicts of commitment, however, have been increasingly referenced but less frequently codified. The variety of scenarios to which conflict of commitment may be applied is also vast, with no typology being presented heretofore. Therefore, a review of the typology of conflict of commitment, particularly as it is used to address research security concerns stemming from inappropriate foreign influence in research, is timely and relevant. This manuscript will review the history of conflicts of commitment in the scientific literature, correlate the focus on inappropriate foreign influence with conflict of commitment, and suggest a contemporary typology for conflict of commitment for practical and regulatory use based on significant references to COI in the literature and federal government documents.