Effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation: evidence from Mongolia

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (SBVAR). Ten structural shocks (three external and seven domestic shocks) are identified using a triangular factorization. The main results are (i) the measured bank liquidity creation (as a share of total assets) is procyclical and negatively correlated with the liquidity coverage ratio in the banking sector; (ii) external shocks (the US monetary policy, Chinese economic activity, and changes in the global commodity market) have statistically significant and economically major effects on the liquidity creation. Lending rate, NPL ratio, foreign exchange reserves, and competition in the banking sector are key domestic determinants of liquidity creation; (iii) liquidity creation’s main components respond differently to the US federal funds rate and lending rate shocks. External and financial shocks have contributed to the liquidity creation passing through movements in (illiquid assets + liquid liabilities) component; (iv) monetary policy can be an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument in stabilizing the economic and financial cycles.