US Fear Research Articles

Crisis between Britain and the United States over the Sinai multinational force

ABSTRACT This paper draws on recently released papers in Israel, Britain and the United States which shed new light on a crisis in US-UK relations between September and November 1981. The papers go beyond the published literature in demonstrating how determined London was to pursue an independent policy towards the Arab-Israel conflict, even at the cost of confrontation with Washington. President Reagan urgently requested British participation in the Sinai Multinational Force, in order to facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Sinai. The Reagan administration perceived Britain’s involvement as essential for efforts to establish the Force. However, the Americans faced two difficulties: Israel was reluctant to accept Britain’s involvement in the Force because it had played an active role in the much-reviled European Economic Community Venice Declaration of June 1980 which had called for Palestinian self-determination and an accommodating approach towards the Palestinian Liberation Organization. In addition, Britain refused to commit to participation in the Sinai Force, fearing a backlash from an Arab world that rejected the 1979 Israel–Egypt Peace Treaty. The impasse over the Sinai Force provoked a row between London and Washington, amid the US fears that it would scuttle the planned Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula.

변동성 지수를 이용한 중국 자본시장의 충격 분석

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic swept the world, threatening lives and causing panic and chaos in the capital markets. Faced with the impact of COVID-19, markets in China and the US reacted differently to the panic. Panic spread and risk links have been strengthened between the Chinese and US markets. Faced with the economic trauma caused by COVID-19 and panic among investors in capital markets, the Chinese and US governments have issued a number of policies to combat the economic downturn and market panic. Among them, active fiscal and monetary policies are the main policies. However, in addition to fiscal and monetary policy, China has been focusing on introducing a series of capital opening policies to attract global investment to stabilize capital market sentiment and lead the healthy development of capital markets. Therefore, the panic in the Chinese capital market has deepened against the background of China's capital opening policy and the impact of the corona virus. The development of capital markets, along with the propagation effect of capital flows, is attracting more and more attention from regulators and investors. Based on the research background of Corona, this paper first classifies the timeline of Corona and summarizes the impact of Corona on the capital markets of China and the United States. Next, we study the propagation effect of the capital market fear index in China and the United States, and further explore the interaction between the capital flow represented by Mainland-Hongkong stock connect and the Chinese fear index through the case study method and the VAR model. Specifically, this thesis is divided into three major parts. The first is to summarize the corona trend in China and the United States, policy measures for corona prevention and control, and economic impact. Second, through the VAR model, we study the mutual influence of the panic effect of the Chinese and US capital markets under the background of the coronavirus. Third, we analyze the effect of the level of net capital inflows on the fear index and the difference between before and after Corona. According to the research results of this paper, first, the main reason for the large difference in the impact of the corona virus in China and the United States is that there is a big difference in the attitudes and measures of the two governments to deal with the corona virus. The impact of the corona virus on the macro economy is clear. The strength of corona prevention and control is a key factor, and the higher the short-term intensity of corona prevention and control, the smaller the long-term impact of the corona on the economy. Second, after the outbreak of corona, the mutual influence of the panic between China and the United States increased. Specifically, in the early stages of the outbreak, the fear index of the Chinese market had a great impact on the fear index of the US market. After the corona virus outbreak in the United States, the Chinese stock market has clearly been affected by the US fear index, and the degree of interaction between the two markets is related to the severity of the corona virus in the host country. Third, the scale of capital flow measured by the net inflow of Shanghai-Hongkong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hongkong stock connect has a negative correlation with the fear index. In other words, capital flows help restore market rationality and reduce the impact of market panics. The research problem of this paper is timely and innovative, and the research method is relatively rich, so it has some theoretical significance by enriching the literature results in this research field to some extent. Also, for regulators and investors, this study has practical significance as it helps to understand the reality of how capital flows affect capital markets in a large-scale epidemic situation and provides theoretical support for the proposed response policies.

Russia’s War in Ukraine: State Patriotism or Economic Gain?

Are the objectives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 based on Putin’s ideological view of Russia’s history and the place of Ukraine in it in the process re-establishing Russia’s position as a world power challenging US hegemony? Or are there underlying economic objectives shared with Russia’s oligarchs to gain control of Ukraine’s mineral wealth and strategic economic position at the crossroads of Europe and Eurasia? This article compares the economies of Russia and Ukraine and their performance since the end of the Soviet Union and finds that their economic structures and performance are very similar over the last three decades, as is the domination of their respective oligarchs, but that the war has hit Ukraine much more disastrously than sanctions have hit Russia. It concludes that Russia does not need Ukraine’s mineral wealth but that control of Ukraine would bring Russia economic gains. However, the principal reason for the invasion is to push back the potential NATO advance to the Russian border, itself a reaction to US fears of Europe’s increasing dependence on Russia for gas, and in doing so challenge US hegemony not just in Europe by across the world by building bridges to Asia and other parts of the Global South.

Does the US Fear and Greed Index Extend its Influence to European Stocks?

Does the US Fear and Greed Index Extend its Influence to European Stocks?

Can the US Fear and Greed Index Influence Stock Trading in the Asia Pacific Region now that the Dominance of the US is Declining?

Can the US Fear and Greed Index Influence Stock Trading in the Asia Pacific Region now that the Dominance of the US is Declining?

Empathy, Risk-Taking, and Concession-Making: Gorbachev’s Bold Proposals at Reykjavik to End the US-Soviet Arms Race

Why do decision makers undertake bold conciliatory gestures? It is puzzling why leaders accommodate their rivals in such a way when smaller, less risky avenues exist to initiate conciliation. To shed light on this question, I examine Mikhail Gorbachev’s decision to present an unprecedented package of arms control proposals at the Reykjavik summit. In one stroke, he made concessions to the United States on missile defense and strategic and intermediate-range nuclear weapons. Gorbachev believed he needed to reassure the Americans, particularly President Ronald Reagan, of the Soviet Union’s benign intentions and therefore made concessions that addressed US fears and security concerns. I argue that these concessions constitute empathic signals designed to communicate Gorbachev’s sincerity in reducing nuclear weapons. In the event his offer was rebuffed, Gorbachev would reveal his proposals to mobilize public opinion against Reagan. These strategies may seem contradictory but fit Gorbachev’s overall plan to challenge the Soviet Union’s threatening image and, in doing so, either persuade or pressure Reagan into reciprocating Soviet concessions.

A Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization to Forecast Implied Volatility Risk

The application of optimization methods to prediction issues is a continually exploring field. In line with this, this paper investigates the connectedness between the infected cases of COVID-19 and US fear index from a forecasting perspective. The complex characteristics of implied volatility risk index such as non-linearity structure, time-varying and non-stationarity motivate us to apply a nonlinear polynomial Hammerstein model with known structure and unknown parameters. We use the Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (HPSO) tool to identify the model parameters of nonlinear polynomial Hammerstein model. Findings indicate that, following a nonlinear polynomial behaviour cascaded to an autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) behaviour, the fear index in US financial market is significantly affected by COVID-19-infected cases in the US, COVID-19-infected cases in the world and COVID-19-infected cases in China, respectively. Statistical performance indicators provided by the developed models show that COVID-19-infected cases in the US are particularly powerful in predicting the Cboe volatility index compared to COVID-19-infected cases in the world and China (MAPE (2.1013%); R2 (91.78%) and RMSE (0.6363 percentage points)). The proposed approaches have also shown good convergence characteristics and accurate fits of the data.

Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Sino-US Relations

This article focuses on the impact of the pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) on Sino-US relations. It describes Sino-US relations before and after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Particular attention is paid to the ongoing trade war between the PRC and the US, as well as the development of the information war caused by the politicization of the epidemic. The reasons for the deterioration of Sino-US relations under the influence of the coronavirus are considered. The author highlighted the following factors: US fears about the transition of world economic and political leadership from Washington to Beijing; the disagreement between China and the United States over the anti-epidemic in the framework of multilateral cooperation; problems caused by objectively accelerated changes in the world order. It is concluded that the epidemic plays a limited role in the deterioration of economic and political relations between China and the US. The fundamental reason remains the discrepancy between the unilateralism advocated by the US and multilateralism called for by China.

Prevalence of Visual Acuity Loss or Blindness in the US

Globally, more than 250 million people live with visual acuity loss or blindness, and people in the US fear losing vision more than memory, hearing, or speech. But it appears there are no recent empirical estimates of visual acuity loss or blindness for the US. To produce estimates of visual acuity loss and blindness by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US state. Data from the American Community Survey (2017), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2008), and National Survey of Children's Health (2017), as well as population-based studies (2000-2013), were included. All relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System were included. The prevalence of visual acuity loss or blindness was estimated, stratified when possible by factors including US state, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and community-dwelling or group-quarters status. Data analysis occurred from March 2018 to March 2020. The prevalence of visual acuity loss (defined as a best-corrected visual acuity greater than or equal to 0.3 logMAR) and blindness (defined as a logMAR of 1.0 or greater) in the better-seeing eye. For 2017, this meta-analysis generated an estimated US prevalence of 7.08 (95% uncertainty interval, 6.32-7.89) million people living with visual acuity loss, of whom 1.08 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.82-1.30) million people were living with blindness. Of this, 1.62 (95% uncertainty interval, 1.32-1.92) million persons with visual acuity loss are younger than 40 years, and 141 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 95 000-187 000) persons with blindness are younger than 40 years. This analysis of all available data with modern methods produced estimates substantially higher than those previously published.

РЕФЛЕКСИЯ ЕВРОПЕЙЦЕВ В ОТНОШЕНИИ ПОВЕДЕНИЯ США И КНР В УСЛОВИЯХ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19: НА ПРИМЕРЕ ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИИ, ГЕРМАНИИ, ФРАНЦИИ И ИТАЛИИ

The complex development of China and its transformation into a superpower arouses the US fears, what results in the trade and economic wars between the two countries, as well as in a discursive confrontation. As the conflict between the United States and China escalates, the struggle will intensify not only for markets, but also for the hearts and minds of Europeans (in this article, in particular, Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy are considered). Reflection on Beijing’s behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic will become one of the important sociological factors that will affect the attitude of European citizens towards China, what, in turn, will have a significant impact on the implementation of the PRC’s foreign policy strategy.

Dynamic Responses of Major Equity Markets to the US Fear Index

This study examines the reaction of four major equity markets of the world to the US equity market fear index, i.e., the Chicago Board of Trade Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX is designed to perform as a leading indicator of the volatility in equity markets. Our paper examines the daily data for the period of 2013 through 2018. We find that during this period there were three significant breaks in the data. Impulse responses from the structural vector autoregressive model estimation show that, in the first and second subperiods that cover from 6/2013 through 5/2016, equity market volatility in the US, UK, France, and Germany responded to structural shocks to the VIX. Nonlinear Granger causality tests confirm these findings. However, in the post Brexit-vote era, equity indices neither react to VIX structural shocks nor are caused by these shocks.

A real driver of US–China trade conflict

Purpose According to the conventional wisdom, trade is not a zero-sum game, but a positive-sum game. By allowing countries to focus on producing the goods that they can produce relatively efficiently, free trade is largely beneficial for everyone involved. Then, why are the world’s two largest economies (i.e. the USA and China) currently engaged in a trade war, which is likely to hurt their own economies? What is the driving force for the trade war between the two economic giants? The purpose of this paper is to offer an explanation of the underlying cause of the US–China trade war. Design/methodology/approach In an effort to make sense of the trade war between the USA and China, the paper draws the insights from the two international relations theories – i.e. hegemonic stability theory and power transition theory. Findings As China continues to threaten US hegemony in the world in general and East Asia in particular, the Sino–US competition for hegemony will intensify over time. As a result, the trade war between the two countries may persist longer than many anticipate. Further, even if the trade war between the two superpowers ends soon, a similar type of conflict is likely to occur later as long as the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry continues. Originality/value The central thesis of this paper is that “US fear” about its declining hegemony and China’s rapid rise as a challenger of US hegemony is driving a US-launched trade war with China. Since the underlying cause of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is political (i.e. the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry) rather than economic (e.g. US attempts to improve the trade balance with China by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods), the paper contends that the full understanding of the trade war requires close attention to the importance of power competition between the two superpowers.

Geopolitics and Terrorism in Asia-Pacific Region vis-a-vis India

India is a partner of the United States of American and many other organizations which are fighting the war against terrorism is well evident. The geopolitical location of India helps in being in leader of the such operations. India has been able to curb terrorism in many parts of the country like Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland, Tamilnadu and other part of the country which may not be termed as terrorism. The track record of countries India is good and it has never promoted terrorism in other parts of the world and whenever needed it has been actively supporting the campaign of the United Nations and United States of America for curbing terrorism. The origin of the terrorism is well known to be in the Middle East but the spread of the terrorism in the other parts of the world is a matter of great concern. One of the world region which got highly affected by this speed is Asia Pacific region and this research is more relevant for Asia Pacific Region. India is more decidedly aligning itself with the US strategic vision of pivoting to the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean Region to curb the rise of terrorism and ensure regional balance of powers. As Pakistan is well known supporter of terrorism and US fears that Pakistan may lend the nuclear weapon technology to terrorists or terrorists may grab it forcefully from a politically weak country like Pakistan which has nuclear powers. With US lawmakers pressing for NATO ally status for India make it more clear that India is a strategic partner in curbing the rise of terrorism in Asia Pacific region.

Does the US Fear Gauge Impact on the Investor Fear Gauge in the Emerging Markets?

This article investigates the investor fear gauge linkages among the American and emerging markets, such as, India (India volatility index (IVIX)), South Korea (Volatility Korea Composite Stock Price Index (VKSOPI)), South Africa (South African Volatility Index (SAVI)) and Russian (Russian Volatility Index (RTSVX)). This article further captures the diffusion and jump relationships between the volatility indices (VIXs) in US and emerging markets by applying the correlated bivariate Poisson (CBP) jump model. The empirical result found that the change in the VIX in the US has a substantial impact over the change in the VIXs of emerging markets. The changes in the VIXs exhibit individual jump behaviour. Finally, this article found the time-varying joint jump intensity between the VIXs in US and emerging markets. JEL Classification: C32, C5

Reclaiming Fundamental Principles of Criminal Law in the Darfur Case

According to the authors, the Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Darfur and the Security Council referral of the situation in Darfur to the International Criminal Court (ICC) bring to light two serious deficiencies of the ICC Statute and, more generally, international criminal law: (i) the systematic ambiguity between collective responsibility (i.e. the responsibility of the whole state) and criminal liability of individuals, on which current international criminal law is grounded, and (ii) the failure of the ICC Statute fully to comply with the principle of legality. The first deficiency is illustrated by highlighting the notions of genocide and genocidal intent, as well as that of joint criminal enterprise. The second is exposed by drawing attention to the uncertainties and ambiguities surrounding such notions as recklessness and dolus eventualis, and in addition to the frequent reliance in both international case law and the legal literature on customary international law and loose concepts such as proportionality. The authors finally point out that if the ICC tries to operate as a real criminal court under the rule of law and shows sensitivity to the rights and interests of the accused, US fears of politicized prosecution will diminish. * Cardozo Professor of Jurisprudence, Columbia University Law School; member of the Journal ’s Board of Editors; fletch@law.columbia.edu. ** Ph.D., Columbia University; J.D., Columbia University Law School; jdo18@columbia.edu. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Journal of International Criminal Justice 3 (2005),539^561 doi:10.1093/jicj/mqi049 Oxford University Press, 2005, All rights reserved. For permissions please email journals.permissions@oupjournals.org

Engineered Migration and the Use of Refugees as Political Weapons: A Case Study of the 1994 Cuban Balseros Crisis

This paper presents a case study of the August 1994 Cuban balseros crisis, during which more than 35,000 fled the island and headed toward Florida in the span of a few weeks. It argues that Castro launched the crisis in an attempt to manipulate US fears of another Mariel, and in order to compel a shift in US policy, both on immigration and on a wider variety of issues. The paper further contends that from Castro’s perspective, this exercise in coercion proved a qualified success – his third such successful use of the Cuban people as an asymmetric political weapon against the US. In addition, the paper argues that Castro’s success was predicated on his ability to internationalize his own domestic crisis and transform it into an American domestic political and foreign policy crisis. Finally, it offers a novel explanation of how, why, and under what conditions, states and/or non–state actors may attempt to use refugees as coercive political weapons. Although dwarfed in size by the larger 1980 Mariel boatlift, the 1994 crisis is important for several reasons. First, despite its brevity, it had far reaching consequences for US–Cuban relations. Without warning or preamble, it catalyzed a shift in US policy vis–à–vis Cuban immigration that represented a radical departure from what it had been for the previous three decades. Second, it influenced US domestic politics on the national level, by expanding the scope and salience of the issue, and mobilizing not only Floridians, but also the larger public concerned about illegal immigration. Third, the crisis illustrated the potential potency of engineered migration as an asymmetric weapon of the weak. Finally, the brief, but significant, interactions of international and domestic actors in this case warrant examination because, although the 1994 crisis was limited, in its dynamics it resembles myriad other international refugee crises, large and small. Thus the case offers valuable lessons that may aid in dealing with future (real or threatened) crises.

The statute for an international criminal court and the United States: peacekeepers under fire?

The traditional practice of reserving criminal jurisdiction over members of peacekeeping operations for troop contributing states has certain disadvantages. The drafting of the Statute for an International Criminal Court (ICC) provided an opportunity to re-evaluate this practice and devise an improved one. The Statute that was adopted in Rome in July 1998 has been criticized by the Unites States for allowing prosecution of its peacekeepers by the ICC, which the US fears may lead to politicized prosecutions. This article discusses what changes the Statute entails with regard to the prosecution of peacekeepers. It argues that the traditional practice largely remains unaffected because the Statute includes a number of safeguards, a principal one being the notion of complementarity. The article concludes that the content of the Statute does not justify US fears and that it does not address the problems connected with the traditional system of criminal jurisdiction over peacekeepers.

The inscription of difference: news coverage of the conflicts in Rwanda and Bosnia

There are many parallels between the current civil wars in Rwanda and Bosnia. Similarities can be found in military tactics and in how external imperialism, ethnicity, rural underdevelopment and even topography shape various parameters of the conflicts. Despite the comparable message potential inherent in these parallels, the US news media have elected to cast their coverage of the two wars in two different frameworks of understanding. Through content and intertextual analysis of six major US newspapers, and through juxtaposition of news coverage of Bosnia, we reveal how the press distorts Rwanda coverage to fit a frame. This frame relies almost entirely on non-African sources, depicting Africa as a timeless and placeless realm of “tribal” conflict, the repository of deep-seated US fears of African “others”. This inscription of difference implicates the news media as a central player in the social construction, categorization and defamation of peoples and places in the emerging post-Cold-War geopolitical (dis)order.

Far from Beijing, Chinese Students in US Fear for Future of Science and Nation

Far from Beijing, Chinese Students in US Fear for Future of Science and Nation

US fears of Soviet satellite getting ahead

US fears of Soviet satellite getting ahead