US Employment Research Articles

The future of employment revisited: how model selection affects digitization risks

The uniqueness of human labour is at question in times of smart technologies. As computing power and data available increases, the discussion on technological unemployment reawakens. Prominently, Frey and Osborne (Technol Forecast Soc Change 114:254–280, 2017) estimated that half of US employment must be considered exposed to computerization within the next 20 years; followed by a series of papers expanding the research with information on heterogeneous job-specific tasks within the same jobs diminishing digitization potentials to only smaller fractions of workers at high risk. The main contribution of our work is to show that the diversity of previous findings regarding the degree of digitization is additionally driven by model selection. For our case study, we consult experts in machine learning and industry professionals on the susceptibility to digital technologies in the Austrian labour market. Our results indicate that, while clerical computer-based routine jobs are likely to change in the next decade, professional activities, such as the processing of complex information, are less prone to digital change.

Temporal trends in occupational injuries treated in US emergency departments, 2012–2019

BackgroundEvidence suggests that rates of occupational injuries in the US are decreasing. As several different occupational injury surveillance systems are used in the US, more detailed investigation of this trend is merited. Furthermore, studies of this decrease remain descriptive and do not use inferential statistics. The aim of this study was to provide both descriptive and inferential statistics of temporal trends of occupational injuries treated in US emergency departments (EDs) for 2012 to 2019.MethodsMonthly non-fatal occupational injury rates from 2012 to 2019 were estimated using the national electronic injury surveillance system—occupational supplement (NEISS-Work) dataset, a nationally representative sample of ED-treated occupational injuries. Rates were generated for all injuries and by injury event type using monthly full-time worker equivalent (FTE) data from the US Current Population Survey as a denominator. Seasonality indices were used to detect seasonal variation in monthly injury rates. Trend analysis using linear regression adjusted for seasonality was conducted to quantify changes in injury rates from 2012 to 2019.ResultsOccupational injuries occurred at an average rate of 176.2 (95% CI = ± 30.9) per 10,000 FTE during the study period. Rates were highest in 2012 and declined to their lowest level in 2019. All injury event types occurred at their highest rate in summer months (July or August) apart from falls, slips, and trips, which occurred at their highest rate in January. Trend analyses indicated that total injury rates decreased significantly throughout the study period (− 18.5%; 95% CI = ± 14.5%). Significant decreases were also detected for injuries associated with contact with foreign object and equipment (− 26.9%; 95% CI = ± 10.5%), transportation incidents (− 23.2%; 95% CI = ± 14.7%), and falls, slips, and trips (− 18.1%; 95% CI = ± 8.9%).ConclusionsThis study supports evidence that occupational injuries treated in US EDs have decreased since 2012. Potential contributors to this decrease include increased workplace mechanization and automation, as well as changing patterns in US employment and health insurance access.

Measuring the US employment situation using online panels: The Yale Labor Survey

This study presents the results of a rapid, low-cost survey that collected labor market data for individuals in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) used an online panel from YouGov to replicate statistics from the Current Population Survey, the government’s main source of household labor market statistics. The YLS’s advantages include its timeliness, its low cost, and its ability to develop new questions quickly to study labor market patterns during the pandemic. The results of the YLS show that online surveys can be used to gather economic and demographic data with reasonable accuracy and at low cost. Such surveys can therefore be useful complements to less-frequent government surveys, particularly when the labor market is stressed and real-time data are especially valuable.

Designing a Value-Based Formulary for a Commercial Health Plan: A Simulated Case Study of Diabetes Medications

ObjectivesThe healthcare expenditure for managing diabetes with glucose-lowering medications has been substantial in the United States. We simulated a novel, value-based formulary (VBF) design for a commercial health plan and modeled possible changes in spending and utilization of antidiabetic agents. MethodsWe designed a 4-tier VBF with exclusions in consultation with health plan stakeholders. The formulary information included covered drugs, tiers, thresholds, and cost sharing amounts. The value of 22 diabetes mellitus drugs was determined primarily in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Using pharmacy claims database (2019-2020), we identified 40 150 beneficiaries who were on the included diabetes mellitus medicines. We simulated future health plan spending and out-of-pocket costs with 3 VBF designs, using published own price elasticity estimates. ResultsThe average age of the cohort is 55 years (51% female). Compared with the current formulary, the proposed VBF design with exclusions is estimated to reduce total annual health plan spending by 33.2% (current: $33 956 211; VBF: $22 682 576), saving $281 in annual spending per member (current: $846; VBF: $565) and $100 in annual out-of-pocket spending per member (current: $119; VBF: $19). Implementing the full VBF with new cost shares, along with exclusions, has the potential to achieve the greatest savings, compared with the 2 intermediate VBF designs (ie, VBF with prior cost sharing and VBF without exclusions). Sensitivity analyses using various price elasticity values showed declines in all spending outcomes. ConclusionDesigning a VBF with exclusions in a US employer–based health plan has the potential to reduce health plan and patient spending.

Covid-19 health risk, ability to work from home and establishment size

ABSTRACT In December 2021, with COVID-19 cases about to reach their peak, US employment still remained below its pre-pandemic level, with data indicating a strong labour demand and a weak labour supply. Many US individuals did not work, out of a concern about Covid-19. At the same time, the pandemic affected businesses of different sizes differently. At first, the pandemic hit especially hard small businesses. But later in 2020 the recovery was stronger at smaller businesses than at larger ones. These developments call for a renewed attention to how the labour supply varies across employers of different sizes. I focus on two important determinants of labour supply during a pandemic: the vulnerability to the severe effects of the virus because of pre-existing health conditions and the ability to work from home. I study how these two factors vary across establishments of different sizes. I find that the ability to work from home is higher at larger establishments, for both workers with and without COVID-19 health risk. However, the difference in ability to work from home across these two types of workers does not decrease at larger employers.

Does board gender diversity reduce workplace sexual harassment?

AbstractResearch Question/IssueWe contrast the predictions of gender socialization theory and “fem‐power washing” (deceptively positioning as a firm promoting female empowerment without any tangible actions) to investigate whether promoting female directors on the board of directors associates with a reduction in the prevalence of firm‐level workplace sexual harassment (SH).Research Findings/InsightsWe estimate the incidence rate of SH through textual analysis of US employees' job reviews published online during the period 2011–2021. We find that an increase of one female director is associated with a 21.81% decrease in workplace SH and that firms with high board gender diversity synchronize the reduction in SH with improved social policies (e.g., policies to better employee relations, health and safety, or diversity challenges). Our results do not support the fem‐power washing theory but rather imply that nominating female directors may have a profound impact on the firm's ethical culture.Theoretical/Academic ImplicationsThis study validates the ethical dimension of corporate governance: Nominating female directors impacts a firm harassment culture and, by extension, a firm's ethical and corporate culture. This study adds to the governance literature that debates the merits of board gender diversity by highlighting an oft‐ignored channel through which board diversity affects firm value: ethics and corporate culture.Practitioner/Policy ImplicationsFor boards of directors, having more female directors can curb workplace SH, a behavior that is associated with a severe and lasting negative effect on firm value. For practitioners, regulators, and the business community, this study reinforces the merits of aiming towards more gender‐balanced boards.

Quantifying the employment impacts of gross exports: a global accounting perspective

This article presents a method for quantifying the (domestic) employment consequences directly attributed to gross exports by taking into account the complex and global nature of production chains. Using a multi-country input–output (IO) structure of world production, the method derives measurements for the number of jobs and amount of labour income supported by a country’s export-related production. By quantifying how much domestic employment is determined by a country’s export activity, it offers a complementary (labour-focused) view on the more common (value-added focused) analyses for evaluating the economic impact of trade. This approach highlights the importance of exports in creating jobs and labour income, especially in the European Union and China. In contrast, gross exports in the United States show a (comparatively) weak influence in supporting US employment.

Direct and Indirect Costs of Patients with Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Diseases

Background: Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are clonal blood diseases characterized by an overproduction of blood cells and include myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera (PV), and essential thrombocythemia (ET). Over the course of illness, these disorders can impose substantial economic burden, in both direct and indirect healthcare costs, due to lost work productivity and medical leave. The objective of this study was to measure work loss (short-term and long-term disability [STD/LTD]) and direct and indirect costs for patients with MPNs among US employees. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, MarketScan administrative claims databases were used to identify employed patients (aged 18-64 years) with ≥1 diagnosis of an MPN (cohorts for MF, PV, and ET identified separately) from 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2019. The latest date meeting all eligibility criteria in the selection window was set as the index. Patients were required to have 6 months of continuous database enrollment (with medical, pharmacy, and work loss data available) before (pre-index period) and 12 months after (follow-up period) the index date. Patients with evidence of pregnancy during follow-up, a diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML; all cohorts), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS; PV and ET cohort only), or MF (PV and ET cohort only) at any point during the study were excluded. A control cohort of patients without evidence of MPN, AML, or MDS during the entire study period and meeting the same enrollment criteria as the MPN cohorts was also selected (index date randomly assigned). Direct matching on age and sex followed by propensity score matching (1:3 ratio) methods were used to adjust for differences in other patient demographics and comorbidities before measuring outcomes. The proportion of patients with STD or LTD, number of days lost from work, and associated indirect and direct healthcare costs (overall and by service category) were reported for the MF, PV, and ET cohorts and compared with matched controls during the 12-month follow-up period; subsets of each MF, PV, and ET cohort who experienced a thrombotic event (TE) were also analyzed. Results: The number of patients with MF, PV, and ET included in the analysis were 173, 4,477, and 6,061, respectively. After matching, patients with an MPN were well balanced with controls (defined as standard mean difference of <0.1) on all demographic and clinical characteristics. Median age was 54, 51, and 48 years for MF, PV, and ET patients, respectively. Total direct healthcare costs and those of each of the components (ie, inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy) were significantly higher among all 3 MPN cohorts compared with controls (Figure). The largest mean cost difference was observed in the MF cohort ($67,456 higher), followed by the ET cohort ($22,279 higher) and the PV cohort ($10,970 higher). The MPN cohorts also had a significantly larger proportion of patients with an STD claim, a larger number of days lost from work due to STD, and higher associated indirect costs related to STD compared with controls. Patients in the MF cohort had an 8.1% higher chance of filing a STD claim, followed by the ET cohort (7.5% higher) and the PV cohort (3.3% higher). Results were consistent but less pronounced for LTD due to the small proportion of patients with LTD during the 12-month follow-up period, which may not be long enough to observe the diseases' impact (Table). In the subsets of patients with ET and PV with a TE, the mean total direct healthcare costs were substantially larger than those observed for the full ET and PV cohorts (ET: $74,279 higher and PV: $45,219 higher), and the difference in the percentage of patients filing a STD claim was also substantially larger (ET: 20.5% higher and PV: 11.6% higher). Conclusions: This real-world analysis found high economic burden among employed patients with MPNs. Patients with MF, PV, and ET were significantly more likely to take disability leave and had higher direct and indirect costs compared with matched controls. The presence of TEs more than tripled direct costs and nearly tripled use of disability leave for patients with PV or ET compared with the full PV or ET cohorts. Figure 1View largeDownload PPTFigure 1View largeDownload PPT Close modal

Labour Market Fluctuations and the Housing Net Worth Channel in the EU

The credit-driven housing net worth channel has been identified as a determinant of the sharp drop in US employment between 2007 and 2009. We examine the impact of this channel on the labour market in the EU using panel data for 20 countries covering the period 1996 to 2017. This period saw substantial changes in both credit provision and labour market performance in the EU. The full sample results show changes in housing net wealth having a significant influence on total employment and its traded and non-traded components, with a one per cent change in housing net wealth being associated with about a 0.2 per cent change in total employment. Coefficient values are larger when changes in non-traded employment are the dependent variable, while the wealth effect is greater when negative housing net wealth shocks occur. In contrast to the US evidence, we find significant wage responses to housing net worth shocks arising in the EU.

A High-Resolution Lead-Lag Analysis of US GDP, Employment, and Unemployment 1977–2021: Okun’s Law and the Puzzle of Jobless Recovery

Okun’s law is formulated as the ratio between GDP and unemployment (UE): β = f(GDP/UE). It is used to investigate the relations between output and labor input across regions or across business cycles. Based on results by James D. Hamilton we replaced the United States UE with employment (EM) for the years 1977 to 2021 and examined how employment changed relative to output during recessions and recoveries. We found that (i) EM was leading GDP before and lagging GDP after all recessions, except the 2020 recession. (ii) The βE(9) = GDP/EM for rolling ordinary linear regression over 9 months decreases just after a recession and then recovers over 2- to 4-year periods. (iii) The two series showing that EM → GDP and βE(9) &lt; 0.5 coincided in the 34 months that partly preceded and partly followed five of six NBER recession dates, providing a probability of ≈0.0002 to coincide with the recessions by chance. Thus, the two series may be used to support forecasts of coming recessions. Since EM precedes GDP and labor productivity declines before recessions, a policy recommendation for avoiding “jobless recovery” is that employment should not increase more rapidly than the real economy.

Improving Employee Experience: Reducing Burnout, Decreasing Turnover and Building Well-being

The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing “great resignation” have put a spotlight on burnout, retention, and well-being. A 2022 Gallup survey of 12,319 full-time US employees demonstrated that the group most likely to state that they feel burned out very often or always at work were kindergarten to 12th grade education professionals (44%). Behind this group, health care workers tied with law professionals at 31%.1 Clearly, burnout is not unique to medicine, but there are significant ramifications for physicians.

Brain gain from Asia: educational and occupational selection of Asian migrants into the United States

PurposeThis study investigates how working-age Asian immigrants' educational attainment and professional abilities when arriving in the United States have evolved over the past 4 decades and draws inferences on the impact of the US employment based visa policies.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the 1980, 1990 and 2000 census and American Community Survey for 2001 to 2019, the study adopts multivariate regression and regression discontinuity design to investigate the trends in educational and occupation selection among Asian immigrants and the association with policy changes in the H1B visa program.FindingsThe findings suggest that new Asian immigrants were more positively selected for education than non-Asian immigrants and US natives and this pattern of positive selection increased over time. Newly arrived South Asian and East Asian immigrants had the highest share of highly educated professionals than Southeast Asians and US-born persons. I infer that the enactment and changes in the H1-B program might have contributed to the changing patterns of the educational and occupational selection among East and South Asian Immigrants. The results also shed light on how Asian immigrants' skill selection might be related to the size of Asian diasporas in the US and sending countries' income, inequality and education level.Originality/valueThe story of changing the skill profile (educational and occupational profile) of newly arrived Asian immigrants during 1980–2019 can provide valuable policy implications. US immigration policies are routinely criticized for being inefficient and outdated. The economic prosperity of Asian countries over time also provides an excellent opportunity to test the theories pertaining to how sending countries' income, inequality and education level of the population are associated with Asian migrants' education and occupation when arriving in the US. This study can provide insightful perspectives for policymakers and business decision-makers to adapt to the changing demographics of Asian migrant workers. The most recent reports on Asian immigrants in the US highlighted the aggregated trends of migration flow and education. Still, none have provided a longitudinal and nuanced review of Asian immigrants' educational and occupational selection into the US.

Guiding employees through the COVID‐19 pandemic: An exploration of the impact of transparent communication and change appraisals

Against the backdrop of the COVID‐19 pandemic and drawing on literature from change management, internal communication and cognitive appraisal theory, this study provided accounts of how transparent communication during organizational change affects employees' cognitive appraisals of the change, behavioural reactions to the change, and subsequently, turnover intentions. Our findings of 414 full‐time US employees revealed that transparent internal communication is positively related to employees' challenge appraisal of the change, which, in turn, is related to change compliance and championing. In addition, transparent communication is negatively associated with threat appraisal of the change, which in turn is connected to lower change compliance. Further, employees' turnover intention was negatively associated with their compliance and championing for the change. This study has made several contributions to internal communication scholarship, appraisal theory and change management literature. We also offer several suggestions to improve communication during organizational change periods.

Paid sick leave among USprivate sector employees.

Inequities in USemployees' access to paid sick leave are known, but it is not clear whether they are increasing or decreasing over time. More than two dozen state and local paid sick leave laws were recently enacted, many with the stated goal of reducing inequities in access to paid sick leave. We examined how inequities in access to paid sick leave have changed over time, focusing on the years when these laws were coming into effect. Private sector employees participating in the National Health Interview Survey between 2006 (before laws came into effect) and 2018 (after most came into effect) reported if they had paid sick leave in their main job. We examined how differences in access to paid sick leave by Census region, race/ethnicity, work hours, and educational attainment changed over time. The percentage of employees with access to paid sick leave increased from 56% in 2006 to 61% in 2018, with most of the increases in access occurring in the West. Inequities by race/ethnicity decreased substantially between 2015 and 2018, the years when most paid sick leave laws came into effect. This change was driven by Hispanic and Latino workers rapidly gaining access to paid sick leave during this time. Differences in access to paid sick leave by work hours and education attainment remained stable over time. Inequities in access to paid sick leave remain. Paid sick leave laws could be effective means to increase access to paid sick leave and equalize access.

Psychometric Properties and Measurement Invariance of a Short Form of the Unified Multidimensional Calling Scale (UMCS)

Abstract: This paper reports on the development of a unidimensional short scale for measuring career calling (UMCS-7). The scale has been developed drawing from the theoretical model behind the Unified Multidimensional Calling Scale (UMCS; Vianello et al., 2018 ), according to which calling is composed of Passion, Prosociality, Purpose, Pervasiveness, Sacrifice, Transcendent Summons, and Identity. The UMCS-7 integrates classical and modern conceptualizations of career calling and can be used when time constraints prevent using the UMCS. The UMCS-7 has been validated in a sample of Italian workers ( N = 1,246) using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. A sample of US employees ( N = 165) was used to estimate measurement invariance across languages, establishing the equivalence of factor loadings, all but two intercepts, and all error variances. The UMCS-7 demonstrated nearly perfect convergent validity with the UMCS ( r = .97), excellent internal consistency (αItaly = .86; αUS = .87), and satisfactory concurrent validity with job satisfaction, life satisfaction, and turnover intentions.

RWD124 Direct Cost Burden of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disorder (GERD) to US Employers

This study assessed the economic burden of refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) among employer-sponsored insurance holders in a large multi-employer claims database in the US.

Employability skills: Profiling data scientists in the digital labour market

In the current scenario, data scientists are expected to make sense of vast stores of big data, which are becoming increasingly complex and heterogeneous in nature. In the context of today's rapid technological development and its application in a growing array of fields, this role is evolving simultaneously. The present study provides an insight into the current expectations of employers seeking to hire individuals with this job title. It is argued that gaining a better understanding of data scientists’ employability criteria and the evolution of this professional role is crucial. The focus is placed on the desired prerequisites articulated through job advertisements, thus deriving relevant means for furthering theory and practice. It was achieved by harvesting relevant data from job advertisements published on US employment websites, which currently attract the US market's highest recruitment traffic. The key contribution of this study is to have identified means of systematically mapping skills, experience, and qualifications sought by employers for their data scientists, thus providing a data-driven pathway for employability and avoiding skills gaps and mismatches in a profession that is pivotal in the Industry 4.0.

Prospective Associations Between Social Connectedness and Mental Health. Evidence From a Longitudinal Survey and Health Insurance Claims Data.

Objectives: Evidence on social stimuli associated with mental health is based mostly on self-reported health measures. We aimed to examine prospective associations between social connectedness and clinical diagnosis of depression and of anxiety. Methods: Longitudinal observational data merged with health insurance data comprising medical information on diagnosis of depression and anxiety were used. 1,209 randomly sampled employees of a US employer provided data for the analysis. Robust Poisson regression models were used. Multiple imputation was conducted to handle missing data on covariates. Results: Better social connectedness was associated with lower risks of subsequently diagnosed depression and anxiety, over a one-year follow-up period. Reports of feeling lonely were associated with increased risks of depression and anxiety. Association between community-related social connectedness and subsequent diagnosis of depression, but not of anxiety, was found. The associations were independent of demographics, socioeconomic status, lifestyle, and work characteristics. They were also robust to unmeasured confounding, missing data patterns, and prior health conditions. Conclusion: Social connectedness may be an important factor for reducing risks of depression and anxiety. Loneliness should be perceived as a risk factor for depression and anxiety.

Diversity initiatives in the US workplace: A brief history, their intended and unintended consequences

AbstractDiversity initiatives are designed to help workers from disadvantaged backgrounds achieve equitable opportunities and outcomes in organizations. However, these programs are often ineffective. To better understand less‐than‐desired outcomes and the shifting diversity landscape, we synthesize literature on how corporate affirmative action programs became diversity initiatives and current literature on their effectiveness. We focus specifically on work dealing with mechanisms that make diversity initiatives effective as well as their unintended consequences. When taken together, these literature point to several inequality‐specific omissions in contemporary discussions of organizational diversity initiatives, such as the omission of racial inequality. As we contend in the first section of this review, without affirmative action law, which initially tasked US employers with ending racial discrimination at the workplace, we would not have diversity initiatives. We conclude by providing directions for future research and elaborating on several core foci that scholars might pursue to better (re)connect issues of organizational diversity with the aims of equity, equality and social justice.

Occupational barriers and the productivity penalty from lack of legal status

Wage gaps between documented and undocumented workers reflect employer exploitation, endogenous occupational sorting and productivity losses associated with lack of legal status. Our paper presents a model-based strategy to identify the productivity penalty associated with lack of legal status, which is crucial to estimate the net economic gains from legalization. In the model, heterogeneous workers choose occupations and undocumented workers are subject to employer discrimination and experience productivity loss in occupations characterized by tasks that require legal status. The theoretical analysis provides guidance on how to identify occupational barriers and delivers an easy-to-compute lower bound for the undocumented productivity penalty. Applying this strategy to individual-level data that imputes undocumented status, we estimate that the productivity penalty associated with lack of legal status in the United States is upward of 12% and affects roughly one third of undocumented workers, which in turn account for over 5% of US employment. Thus, legalization of undocumented workers would not only improve their wages, but also increase GDP by a minimum of 0.96% per year.