US Economy Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence as a Catalyst for US Economic Growth: Strategies and Policy Insights

Artificial Intelligence as a Catalyst for US Economic Growth: Strategies and Policy Insights

Household assets and business cycle fluctuations

AbstractThis paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.

IFCI-SA: International financial conditions index for South American economies

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, triggered a wave of risk aversion in the global financial markets. In contrast to previous events, South American emerging economies experienced limited impact to this more restrictive global financial environment. To measure the financial conditions of these economies over time, we propose an International Financial Conditions Index for South American economies (IFCI-SA), built from a parametric factor model. This index includes standard variables provided by the literature, along with sovereign debt risk premia and the most relevant commodity prices for the region. We use our model and index to: (i) discuss South American financial conditions from 2007 to 2024; (ii) explain the impact of a particular global event like the Russo-Ukrainian war; (iii) decompose risk premia movements into global and domestic shocks; and (iv) test its forecasting capabilities.

The Making of Informational Efficiency: Information Policy and Theory in Interwar Agricultural Economics

This article offers a historical analysis of American interwar agricultural economists and their interest in information. Believing that the main problem facing farmers was a lack of information, agricultural economists designed an information policy aiming to produce, format, and disseminate information. Using administrative archives, the article analyzes the motivations of these economists and the implementation of this policy. As the article shows, the policy was a prerequisite for theoretical discussions about information, and it established institutional tools that are still used today, such as the USDA market news service.

Reproduce to validate: A comprehensive study on the reproducibility of economics research

AbstractJournals have pushed for transparency of research through data availability policies. Such data policies improve availability of data and code, but what is the impact on reproducibility? We present results from a large reproduction exercise for articles published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, which has had a data availability policy since its inception in 2009. Out of 363 published articles, we assessed 274 articles. All articles provided some materials. We excluded 122 articles that required confidential or proprietary data or that required the replicator to otherwise obtain the data (44.5% of assessed articles). We attempted to reproduce 152 articles and were able to fully reproduce the results of 68 (44.7% of attempted reproductions). A further 66 (43.4% of attempted reproductions) were partially reproduced. Many articles required complex code changes even when at least partially reproduced. We collect bibliometric characteristics of authors, but find no evidence for author characteristics as determinants of reproducibility. There does not appear to be a citation bonus for reproducibility. The data availability policy of this journal was effective to ensure availability of materials, but is insufficient to ensure reproduction without additional work by replicators.

Forecasting US GDP growth rates in a rich environment of macroeconomic data

Forecasting GDP growth rates is a formidable challenge, compounded by the inherent volatility, the complexity of the economic landscape, and the presence of a multitude of economic indicators at varying data frequencies. This study employs the MIDAS-LASSO model, which represents a penalized approach designed for mixed-frequency data, to forecast US GDP growth rates, while considering a vast array of macroeconomic indicators, including the Macroeconomic Attention Index (MAI) of Fisher et al. (2022). The empirical analysis demonstrates that both macroeconomic indicators and MAI exhibit considerable power for forecasting US GDP growth rates. The MIDAS-LASSO model outperforms its competitors in terms of forecasting efficacy, particularly in scenarios involving a plethora of predictors. Further analysis scrutinizes the model's efficacy across business cycles and during significant economic downturns, and the pathways through which macroeconomic risks influence US GDP growth rates. These insights offer valuable contributions to the field of economic forecasting and present novel avenues for policymakers and analysts.

American Economic Statecraft in the Era of Global Conflicts

American Economic Statecraft in the Era of Global Conflicts

The impact of natural disasters on US business credit markets: a comparative analysis of short-term and long-duration events

The impact of natural disasters on US business credit markets: a comparative analysis of short-term and long-duration events

Exchange Market Pressure, Government Debt, US Money Supply, GDP Growth and Maritime Trade: An Empirical Evidence from India

Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) indices are used as comprehensive indicators of pressure on a currency. This paper examines the relationship of India government debt, India’s GDP, world money supply and world GDP with exchange market pressure in India. We use quarterly data from 1992: II to 2018: III. The results suggest a significant positive relationship between EMP and the India government debt and GDP and a negative relationship between EMP and world money supply. The relationship between EMP and world GDP is found to be insignificant. This study sheds light on the complex dynamics of EMP and its determinants in India, highlighting the impact of key economic factors and historical events on currency stability. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in maritime trade, providing insights into the economic factors influencing currency stability in maritime trade.

The US Economy as a Network: A Comparison across Economic and Environmental Metrics

Environmental-economic analysis is an evolving field that seeks to situate the human economy within environmental systems through its consumption of environmental resources and cycling of resources and waste products back into the environment. Environmental accounting has seen increased focus in recent years as national and regional governments look to better track environmental flows to aid in policy development and evaluation. This study outlines a conceptual environmental-economic framework founded on network science principles. An empirical study operationalizes portions of the framework and highlights the need for further research in this area to develop new data sources and analytic methods. We demonstrate a spatial mismatch between the location of water-intensive industries and the natural location of water resources (i.e., lakes, rivers, and precipitation), which climate change is likely to exacerbate. We use eigenvector centrality to measure differences in the US economy according to economic trade flow and five associated environmental flow accounts (land use, water consumption, energy use, mineral metal use, and greenhouse gas production). Population normalization helps to identify low-population counties that play a central role in the environmental-economic system as a function of their natural resources.

What characterizes strategy research in Latin America? A bibliometric analysis for the 1990–2023 period

Purpose This article examines strategic management research across Latin America from 1990 to 2023, addressing four critical inquiries: the themes prevalent in strategic discussions, the leading countries in strategic management (SM) publications, the defining characteristics of strategic research in major Latin American economies and the reflection on whether Latin America is a region that generates or follows the knowledge of the Global North. Design/methodology/approach Utilizing co-occurrence analysis, this study maps the terrain of SM research in the region, analyzing 4,963 articles indexed in the Scopus database. The authors employed a co-occurrence analysis to map SM research in Latin America, analyzing 4,963 articles from the Scopus database. Findings Predominant themes include the theoretical underpinnings of strategy, sustainable development, innovation, tourism and international trade. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile have emerged as leaders in research volume and thematic diversity, particularly in sustainable development and innovation. Practical implications By identifying patterns, behaviors and trends in SM research, the authors uncover methods and tools that, once contextualized for the region, can significantly enhance organizational performance. Originality/value This investigation is a pioneering effort, providing a focused analysis on SM research within Latin America. It highlights significant contributions since 1990 across the region's main economies. This study represents one of the first comprehensive mappings of this academic field within Latin America. This is the first article, to the authors’ knowledge, developed to map the intellectual structure of the SM field in Latin America through an analysis of co-occurrences, with emphasis on the region's main economies.

China’s economic boom and military advancement: realist perspective of the Dragon’s global power and presence in Africa

ABSTRACT Can and does realism explain the linkage between China’s economic advancement and its ever-increasing hard power and global influence? Realists assert that a growth in a nation’s economy triggers an upsurge in its craving for military or security advancement and power. Since the commencement of China’s ‘opening policy,’ its economy has witnessed tremendous hikes, being ranked second to the US economy. A vital coincidence of this is the ever-increasing attempt to modernising its military and general security systems. Of major concern is China’s recently established foreign military base in Djibouti in the ‘Horn of Africa.’ Realists have suggested that in such a Hobbesian world, Beijing will employ its economic power to assert its security interests. Analysing this linkage through a realist perspective, using case studies and historical analogies, the article concludes that realism best provides reasons for the phenomenon.

Влияние санкций на мирохозяйственные связи России

The work assesses the impact of sanctions on world economic relations based on changes in the relationships between the most important indicators of economic development of countries — economic growth rates. An assessment of world economic relations, the degree of closeness of economic interaction between countries in the work is given by determining the correlations of economic growth rates in countries for the periods before and after the introduction of antiRussian sanctions — for the period 2005–2012 and for the period 2014–2022. The results obtained from assessing the closeness of world economic ties indicate that anti-Russian sanctions introduced at the initiative of the United States have had a significant and very complex impact on international economic relations. Firstly, despite the anti-Russian nature of the sanctions, which were initiated by the United States, they practically did not disrupt Russia’s ties with the United States. This suggests that the sanctions were introduced with the expectation that they would strike not only the Russian economy, but also the economies of the most developed partners of the United States, such as the EU countries, Great Britain, and Japan. This in turn can serve as a stimulus for the development of the US economy. Secondly, sanctions have changed the structure of Russia’s world economic ties and increased the closeness of ties between the Russian economy and China and Singapore. Morocco, preserved Russia’s ties with Belarus, India, and Indonesia. Anti-Russian sanctions, on the one hand, limited Russia’s world economic ties; on the other hand, they opened up opportunities for the development of economic ties with new large and rapidly developing countries.

Влияние антироссийских санкций на мирохозяйственные связи германии и США

This paper assesses the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on global economic relations between the United States and Germany by changes in the relationship between the economic growth rates of the United States and Germany and the economic growth rates of the countries of the modern world. The correlations between economic growth rates are assessed for the periods before and after the introduction of most anti-Russian sanctions, for 2005–2012, and for 20142022. The results obtained from assessing the closeness of world economic ties indicate that anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the United States and its partners, including Germany, had a significant impact on international economic relations. At the same time, despite the anti-Russian nature of the sanctions, which were initiated by the United States, they practically did not disrupt Russia’s ties with the United States. Despite their anti-Russian orientation, sanctions have significantly weakened Germany’s world economic ties. This suggests that the sanctions were introduced with the expectation that they would strike not only the Russian economy, but also the German economy, which could contribute to the development of the US economy competing with the German economy. Sanctions have changed the structure of world economic ties and increased the closeness of ties between the economies of Germany and Iran, whose world economic ties the United States and its partners are seeking to limit.

Productivity and Keynes’s 15-Hour Work Week Prediction for 2030: An Alternative, Macroeconomic Analysis for the United States

This paper analyses Keynes’s 1930 prediction that technical advances would cut people’s working week to 15 h by 2030 and investigates why actual working hours are significantly higher in the United States. Elaborating on Keynes’s forecast to provide a general productivity formula while keeping its simplicity, we ran tests on macro-data from 1929 to 2019 and on estimates for 2030, demonstrating that productivity is surprisingly still insufficient to allow for a reduction in working hours across the US economy. This finding represents a substantial contribution to the literature, which has mostly explained long working hours by means of new consumer needs. Even by using microdata, we show that consumption does not explain the stickiness of working hours to the bottom. Hence, this paper combines a macroeconomic, logical-analytical approach based on historical time series with rigorously constructed time series at the microeconomic level. Finally, we also provide policies to narrow the productivity differential to Keynes’s prediction for 2030 while fostering work-life balance and sustainable growth. To understand long working hours in the US despite technical advances—this being one of our main findings—productivity remains crucial.

Inflation and income inequality in an open-economy growth model with liquidity constraints on R&D

This study presents a framework to understand the relationship between inflation and income inequality in an open-economy Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households, firm-level innovation, and cash-in-advance constraints on R&D investment. We show that the global real interest rate channel can play a key role in defining this relationship. In smaller economies that have negligible impacts on the global interest rate, income inequality is likely to exacerbate as inflation rates rise. In contrast, for larger economies that can significantly affect the global interest rate, inflation and income inequality may demonstrate a U-shaped relationship. These theoretical predictions are supported by the quantitative analysis in a model calibrated to the economies of the US and the eurozone, as well as empirical estimates using cross-country data.

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IN THE NATIONAL DEFENCE FIELD

The article examines the essence of the defense resources financial management, institutional and legal support, as well as the practice of its modernization in the leading countries of the world and Ukraine under the conditions of a full-scale war. According to the theoretical and institutional aspects analysis results, the concepts of " defense resources financial management" and "defense resources financial management system" were clarified, and the main principles and elements of the mechanism of its implementation were outlined. An assessment of the modern world practice of defense resources financial management was carried out on the example of the US Armed Forces in terms of institutional infrastructure, regulations, standards and tools. The main determinants of the US Armed Forces financial management are established: combat capability, human capital and environmental protection according to ESG principles and Sustainable Development Goals. The components of improving the system of financial management of Ukraine’s defense resources in accordance with the implementation of NATO financial management standards and regulations have been identified. A thorough analysis of the distribution of expenditures and the credits granting under budget programs in accordance with the goals of state policy in 2020-2023 and projected for 2024-2025, of individual defense budget expenditures of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in accordance with the budget request for 2024-2026 raised questions about the impact of budget defense expenditures for the development of Ukraine's economy. The existence of the specified positive influence was proved by means of correlation-regression analysis based on the data of budget expenditures in the time horizon of 2014-2023, with the period before the full-scale invasion of the aggressor country being singled out. However, the scientific hypothesis has not been confirmed for the US economy, that is, military spending is not characterized by a significant impact on the US GDP.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF EXPANSIONARY MONETARY POLICIY IMPLEMENTED DURING COVID-19 ON THE TÜRKİYE, EU AND US ECONOMIES

In this article, the effect of expansionary monetary policy implemented during the covid-19 on the Türkiye, the EU and the USA economies has been evaluated. The beginning of the pandemic covers the period between January 2020 and January 2024. The effects of the monthly percentage change in M3 money supply on unemployment, real economic growth and inflation are presented comparatively with graphs. As a result, while Türkiye was the country where the increase in M3 money supply increased inflation the most, the country where unemployment increased most rapidly at the initial phase of the pandemic was the USA. However, over time, the Fed managed to reduce unemployment to historical low levels with the measures it took. The consequence of the contractionary monetary policy after the pandemic, inflation has been brought under control and the option of reducing interest rates has recently come to the fore. Rising inflation in the EU was also taken under control, but unemployment still remained high

Effects of improved on-farm crop storage on DNA methylation of mothers and their infants: evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Kenya

BackgroundStress during pregnancy can lead to adverse maternal and infant health outcomes through epigenetic changes in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis. Among farmers in low-income countries, one important stressor is food insecurity, which can be reduced using hermetic storage bags. This study aimed to determine, for the first time, whether a hermetic storage bag intervention during pregnancy positively affects maternal and infant DNA methylation of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis-related genes FKBP5 and NR3C1. We further analyzed whether anthropometrics, stress, and mental health were associated with DNA methylation.MethodsThis study was part of a larger matched-pair randomized controlled trial focusing on the impact of improved on-farm storage on food security, poverty, and net income of smallholder farming households. A total of N = 149 mothers were recruited by telephone and invited to attend a study appointment at health facilities in Kakamega County, Western Kenya, with their infants in April or May 2021. During the appointment, anthropometric measurements were taken, questionnaires on stress and mental health were administered, and saliva samples were collected. Logistic and multiple linear regression were used to examine the effect of the intervention and related measures on DNA methylation.ResultsMothers in the intervention group showed higher mean NR3C1 methylation levels than those in the control group, corrected for multiple testing. Maternal postpartum body mass index was positively associated with infant NR3C1 CpG3 DNA methylation. The more stressful life events a mother had experienced in the previous 12 months (including during pregnancy), the lower her FKBP5 CpG3 methylation levels.ConclusionsFood insecurity and stressful life events during pregnancy seem to exert significant effects on maternal DNA methylation. While these stressors did not appear to impact infant DNA methylation in the present study, maternal postpartum body mass index was significantly related to infant methylation. These findings suggest that while infants may be protected from excessive maternal glucocorticoids by placental barrier activity, maternal metabolic status is still reflected in their epigenetic make-up.Trial registration This study was part of a larger matched-pair randomized controlled trial on the impact of improved on-farm crop storage on welfare, nutrition, and human health. Registration can be found in the American Economic Association (AEA) RCT Registry, RCT ID: AEARCTR-0005845.

Data on the US Economy—A Model for Health Data?

Data on the US Economy—A Model for Health Data?