US Dollar Exchange Rate Research Articles

Volatility spillover between exchange rate and stock returns under volatility shifts

Recent evidence suggests that financial markets experience shifts in volatility (i.e. structural breaks) and these volatility shifts should be accounted for in the models of volatility estimation. This study re-examines volatility dynamics of the US Dollar exchange rate and the US stock market utilizing bivariate GARCH models using daily data from January 2003 to May 2018. The modified iterative cumulative sum of square (ICSS) algorithm is employed to identify shifts in the variance of the two return series. The results show that if volatility shifts are ignored, there is significant volatility transmission from the US stock market to the US Dollar exchange rate but not vice versa, which is consistent with previously documented research. However, after accounting for endogenously determined variance shifts in the bivariate GARCH model, I find no significant volatility transmission across markets. I also show that dynamic risk-minimizing hedge ratios and portfolio weights change substantially when volatility shifts are incorporated into the bivariate GARCH model. My findings point to the presence of cross-market hedging by financial market participants in these markets and indicate an inherent estimation bias in the bivariate GARCH models as they tend to overestimate the volatility spillovers across markets when volatility shifts are present but ignored. I show that my results are robust to using data from other major countries over a longer time series data.

ANALISIS HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA (Studi Empiris Tahun 1996-2020)

Gold is a profitable investment from other types of investment. The price of gold in Indonesia increases every year. This is caused by several factors, namely US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production. The Data used is time series data from 1990 – 2020 which are from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, BPS Indonesia dan Gold Price. The research method is multiple linear regression. The result showed by partial test (t-test) that US Dollar exchange rate has a negative effect not significant on the price of gold, deposit interest rate has a significant negative effect on the price of gold, inflation has a positive effect not significant on the price of gold, GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on the price of gold, and the production of gold has a significant positive effect on the price of gold. For F-test US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production has a significant effect on the price of gold. The Coefficient of Determination (R2) can be said that variance price of gold is 97,4% explained by US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, gold production and the remaining is 2,6% explained by the other variables outside the research model such as Indonesia Composite Index (ICI), World Crude Oil Prices and the others.

What Drives Emerging Stock Market Returns? A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach

ABSTRACT This paper explores the dynamic relationship between global economic factors and emerging stock returns within a factor-augmented VAR model. I find that favorable global growth and stock market shocks have significant positive effects on emerging equity returns, whereas global uncertainty and US dollar exchange rate shocks cause a substantial fall in the returns. Global oil shocks lead to a transient increase in emerging stock returns, followed by a gradual decline. Variance decomposition analysis implies that the global uncertainty shock is the most important in the short run, explaining more than 30% of the fluctuation in emerging stock returns, while the US dollar exchange rate shock becomes the most critical in the long run, explaining more than 40%. These findings have crucial implications for international investors, as well as for policymakers in emerging market economies.

Kestasioneran Kurs Dolar Amerika dan Harga Saham Pada Masa Pandemi Covid 19 Tahun 2020

This study aims to determine the stationarity of the US dollar exchange rate and stock prices during the Covid 19 pandemic. One of the interesting stocks to study is the stock price of PT Telecommunications Indonesia Tbk. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used to determine the stationarity of the two variables. The research data is sourced from secondary data through the official website of Bank Indonesia to view the US Dollar Exchange Rate and through the website investing to see the stock price of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk during the Covid 19 pandemic period in Indonesia occurred from March to December 2020. The results showed that the check of the stationary stock price of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk and the US Dollar exchange rate at level I (0) was not stationary. While the two variables are stationary in the first differencing conditions I (1).

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN DI PROPINSI SUMATERA UTARA

Tourism Product Knowledge is regarding the general knowledge of all regions in Indonesia which includes the location of the region / geography, climate, history, politics, culture, and particularly object - attractions and facilities and attractions which support it. In this study, entitled Factors Affecting Total tourist arrivals in Sumut Province Year Period 2014 -2019. The purpose of this study was to determine the number of rooms and the dollar exchange rate partially and simultaneously inuence the number of tourist arrivals in Sumut, in order to obtain a result the number of hotel rooms inuential not evident partially on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t smaller than t table or -1.651 <1.761 while the dollar exchange rate has a signicant effect on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t is greater than t table or 2.236> 1.740 and Total Room and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously or together of the number of tourists visiting Sumut Province since F count> F table or 13.288> 3.59. The magnitude of the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable simultaneously can be known from the value of the coefcient of determination (R2) is equal to 0.639. This means that both variables jointly contribute to or inuence amounted to 63.9 percent of the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, while the remaining 36.1 percent is inuenced by other variables that are not described in the model, such as safety, service, facilities.

On the effect of oil price in the context of Covid‐19

This article studies the impact of oil price change on the stock market, the exchange rate and the real estate market in the US over the last decade. To this end, we model the dynamics of the returns for these markets and test the effect of oil market volatility on their dynamics. Through different econometric investigations, we show, in the context of Covid‐19, that oil price has experienced significant effects on the US stock market and the US dollar exchange rate, while it has no significant impact on the US real estate market. In particular, we highlight, first, a positive and significant reaction of the stock market toward an oil price shock, which might be explained by the effect of high oil financialization over the last decade. Second, we show an adverse effect of the oil price change on the US dollar, suggesting a negative relationship between the oil price and the US dollar. Accordingly, the information provided by the oil sector might help to improve the forecast of the Dow Jones and the US$\\€ exchange rate.

Dynamic Cross-Correlations Analysis on Economic Policy Uncertainty and US Dollar Exchange Rate: AMF-DCCA Perspective

In this paper, we employ the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) as the measurement instrument for the dynamic cross-correlation inspection between US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index and US dollar exchange rate return (Ret). By calculating the cross-correlation statistics, we find mild acceptance of cross-correlation between EPU and Ret qualitatively. With further application of MF-DCCA methodology, we find strong power law cross-correlation existence within all scaling orders. Also, apparent persistence of cross-correlation has been discovered with significant Hurst exponents of all orders. Besides, we find that long-term cross-correlation demonstrates more persistence and higher degree of multifractality than those in the short term. Finally, we utilize the rolling window and binominal measurement analysis as revisits of the model. The results are consistent with model statements.

How Do Inflation Rate, BI Rate, and Balance of Trade Directly Affect IDR to USD Exchange Rate and Indirectly Affect IDX Composite Index in Initial Stage of Covid-19 Outbreak?

This study is trying to fill the research gap by understanding how several important financial variables interplay and affect the macroeconomic indicators, especially in developing country like Indonesia during the financial crisis period caused by the unexpected and sudden Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. The purpose of this research is to determine the direct effect of the inflation rate, Bank Indonesia (BI) rate, and Balance of Trade on the movement of Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) currency stability against US Dollar (USD) and indirect impact to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite index in Indonesia during the initial stage of the pandemic outbreak. To achieve the research objectives, this study uses the Rupiah exchange rate against USD and IDX Composite index as the dependent variables, while the Inflation rate (CPI), BI rate, and Balance of Trade as the independent variables. The quantitative methodology is used in this research by applying linear and multiple simple regression techniques. The results of this research show that the Inflation rate, BI rate, and Balance of Trade were significantly affecting the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD, and it found that the most dominant variable in this model was the BI rate. The Inflation rate and Balance of Trade partially had no direct significant influence toward the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD during the critical anticipation period of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, Rupiah exchange rate against the USD gave a significant influence toward the IDX Composite index.

Test for asymmetry on the ex-pump price of premium gasoline in Ghana, Kenya, and Colombia

Once again, the World has been faced with an oil price shock as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. This has resurrected an old debate of whether retail fuel prices adjust significantly to either increases or decreases in international crude oil prices. With many countries moving towards the deregulation of their petroleum sub-sector, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on retail fuel prices cannot be overlooked. This study investigates the rate at which positive and negative changes in international Brent crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate affected the increases or decreases in the ex-pump price of premium gasoline between February 2012 and December 2019. Using a non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model, the exchange rate was found to play a significant role in fluctuations in the retail price of premium gasoline in Ghana and Colombia in the long run, howev-er, the rate of adjustment between the negative and positive changes was not significant, dispelling the perception of price asymmetry. There was no significant relationship between the ex-pump price of premium gasoline and the international Brent crude oil price in Ghana and Kenya in the long run. This study recommends that the aforementioned countries prioritise the creation of ex-change rate buffers to prevent exchange rate shocks that may affect retail fuel prices.

Macroeconomic effect on stock price: Evidence from Indonesia

Investment decision making by Engineering Managers needs to take into account microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in a country. The role of Engineering Managers in making decisions is crucial and very important. Technical Managers need to consider macro-economic effects such as the US dollar exchange rate against the rupiah, the interest rate set by Bank Indonesia, inflation, especially during the preparation of the Budget Plan (RAB). This research is to analyze the macroeconomic effect on stock prices, to prove the hypothesis, a quantitative approach is used. Macroeconomics are assessed through the US dollar exchange rate, and financial statements data of banking companies.

Аналіз сучасних проблем і перспектив розвитку підприємств в Україні

The article is aimed at studying the analysis of modern problems and prospects for the development of enterprises in Ukraine. Analyzing the latest researches and publications of scientists, the general theoretical bases of problems and prospects for the development of domestic enterprises were considered. The article covers and theoretically substantiates modern problems of entrepreneurship development, which periodically require their study and research, taking into account constant changes in the economy. In general, enterprises play a significant role, because their effective activities is a source of economic growth, which ensures employment in the country and directly affects the improvement of the quality of life of the population, solving social problems and overcoming poverty. However, Ukrainian economy continues to situate «on the swings» in a constantly changing tendency. It is especially influenced by such factors as raising the US dollar exchange rate, reducing attractiveness in the world market, and recently the introduction of quarantine restrictions in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, which has had a significant impact on its development both in Ukraine and around the world. At the same time, precisely the small enterprises play a leading role in creating an effective economy of Ukraine, despite the fact that their development is uneven and they have not taken a proper place in the structure of the national economy. Thus, for the government of the country should become priority directions for stimulating the innovative activity of the entrepreneurial sector, introducing European approaches to the development of small and medium-sized businesses, as well as the formation of a favorable regulatory environment, innovation and investment climate. Moreover, the implementation of this policy should be carried out purposefully, consistently and systematically, as part of the complex of the national innovation system.

Боргова складова забезпечення стійкості публічних фінансів України: стан і тенденції розвитку

The article is aimed at evaluating the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt as components of ensuring the sustainability of Ukraine's public finances, identifying trends and factors that determine debt security and affect the pace of development of the country's economy. The article discloses the indicators of measuring the sustainability of public finances; indicators of effectiveness of the policy of ensuring the sustainability of Public Finances of Ukraine until 2030 are presented; the role and importance of debt security in ensuring the sustainability of public finances is determined. A factor analysis of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt is carried out on the main grounds – the average US dollar exchange rate per year, GDP, revenues and expenditures of the State budget – in order to identify trends in changes in its structure and volumes for the period 2016-2020. The main financial risks and the degree of their impact on debt security are defined, a forecast of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the medium term for 2021-2023 has been developed using the polynomial trend. The likelihood of a worsening the debt situation in Ukraine by 2023 and, as a result, a deterioration in the resilience of public finances due to the unfolding of the coronavirus pandemic, which can be equated with the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, is proved. Proposals to improve Ukraine's debt security in the context of the coronavirus pandemic have been substantiated. Prospect for further research in this direction is to prove the need to make managerial decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finances, taking into account not only macroeconomic, but also political and institutional factors, the impact of which increases significantly in the context of democracy.

Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) method in making forecasting application and analysis of USD exchange rates against rupiah

Economic conditions in Indonesia are still unstable, causing the US dollar exchange rate to increase. This is because most international transactions in Indonesia use US dollars. Prediction or forecasting is chosen as one of the important things in choosing a market to invest in buying and selling. This research will focus on making forecasting applications and analyzing the exchange rate of USD against rupiah based on time series data or temporal datasets from the Investing.com site using machine learning methods, namely Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Applications created using the python programming language and streamlit framework. Modeling is carried out using the Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) methodology with the stages of dividing the dataset with a 50:50 percentage share into test and train data. The modeling uses hyperparameter tuning values, namely n_estimators = 1000, max_depth = 1, x_colsample_bytree = 0.9894, x_gamma = 0.9989, x_min_child = 1.0, x_reg_lamda = 0.2381, and x_subsample = 0.7063 with best loss or RMSE 451.4151. The values of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) when making the model were 6.61374% and 3.95485%. Meanwhile, when testing the model, the RMSE is 0.23577% and MAPE is 0.11643%.

Dominant Currencies and the Export Supply Channel

Dominant currency pricing (DCP) weakens the demand-side effects of exchange rate changes on exports (Gopinath et al., 2020). However, adjustment in the export sector can still occur through other supply-side channels. With bilateral trade data at the HS2-product level, panel fixed-effects regressions and an instrumental variables (IV) approach, this paper presents several novel findings: (1), a depreciation of an exporter’s currency against the US-dollar increases total export volumes between non-US countries, whereas bilateral exchange rates matter very little. (2), there is no statistically significant increase in average exports per firm (the intensive margin), while the aggregate export response is mainly driven by an increase in the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin). (3), there is substantial heterogeneity in the export response to exchange rates against dominant currencies. Market concentration, approximated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), reduces the response of both the extensive and intensive margins to the US-dollar exchange rate. These results highlight an “export supply channel” of exchange rates in a world with dominant currencies, deepen our understanding of aggregate export adjustment and further underline the heterogeneous export response in different sectors to exchange rate changes. JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41

The Influence of The Inflation Rate and The Interest Rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates on The Composite Stock Price Index With The Us Dollar Exchange Rate As A Moderating Variable on The Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study aims to determine how the influence of the inflation rate and the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) with the US dollar exchange rate as a moderating variable on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2007-2016. The data of this research consists of inflation rate reports, Bank Indonesia Certificate interest rate reports, US dollar exchange rate reports and reports on the Composite Stock Price Index for 120 (one hundred and twenty) months, starting from 2007 to 2016. Methods The research used in this research is associative research with quantitative data analysis. Data calculation was performed by using multiple regression analysis of the relationship, t test, F test and the coefficient of determination R2. Meanwhile, to test the moderating variable using the interaction test. The inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (X3) as the moderating variable simultaneously have a positive and insignificant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) (Y) on the Stock Exchange. Indonesia 2007-2016. The coefficient of determination of 0.596065 means it is known that the influence of the inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (Z) as the moderating variable is 59.61% while the rest 40.39% is explained by other variables that are not explained and examined in this study. Keywords: Inflation Rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate, US Dollar Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index

Exchange rates and fundamentals: Further evidence based on asymmetric causality test

This article uses an approach developed by Hatemi-J (2012) which is based on country-specific bootstrap critical values to disclose the nexus between the US dollar-based real exchange rates and observed macroeconomic fundamentals—relative price and interest rate differential. The Granger non-causality test reveals that fundamentals drive the US dollar exchange rates before the Asian financial crisis (AFC) in some cases. The exchange rate–fundamentals nexus is unstable and has reversed in the aftermath of the crisis. Exchange rates help to predict fundamentals in the post-AFC period, as suggested by the present value model. The result holds even after the Federal Reserve announces the termination of quantitative easing programs. Asian currency movements are expected to trigger adjustments in fundamentals in an asymmetric fashion. It tells us that the success of fundamental-based models in predicting the future path of Asian currencies against the US dollar may not be robust after all.

MODEL DINAMIS AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (STUDI KASUS: PENGARUH KURS DOLAR AMERIKA DAN INFLASI TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM TAHUN 2014-2018)

The aim of this research is to determine the dynamic model equation of autoregressive distributed lag by using koyck method, to find out the effect of log US dollar exchange rate and log inflation on log stock price in 20142018, and to forecast value of log stock price on January 2019August 2019. The data used in 20142018. The data was transformed into logarithm format. Time series plot of log US dollar exchange rate, log inflation, and log stock price suggest that the fluctuation in the data, for instance, both upward and downward trends, during the period. We obtained that the Koyck transformation could changed the lag distribution model into autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic model. Furthermore, the log of US dollar exchange rate and log inflation have negative effect on log stock price in particular period. We measured forecasting accuracy using mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) and concluded that ARDL forecasting using Koyck model shows a significant increase in stock price.

Тенденції розвитку ринку паливно-енергетичних ресурсів в аграрному секторі України

The purpose of the article is to establish the main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, to build a model for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine, depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. Research methods. In the process of research, the dialectical method of scientific cognition, analysis and synthesis, system generalization (establishment of the basic tendencies of development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, formation of conclusions) is used; analytical alignment of the trend (linear) (identifying the trend in the dynamics of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel) were used; world oil prices and retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine); correlation and regression analysis (quantitative measurement of the degree of influence on the price of diesel fuel of both individual factors and their combination; construction of a regression model for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate). Research results. The main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector of Ukraine have been established. The degree of influence of both individual factors and their combination on the price of diesel fuel has been determined. A regression model is built for calculating the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine depending on world oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. A short-term forecast of the price of diesel fuel in Ukraine has been carried out. Scientific novelty. Based on the establishment of the main trends in the development of the market of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector, an econometric model based on multiple linear regression has been built, which allows determining the relationship between the retail price of diesel fuel in Ukraine and the world oil price, as well as the dollar exchange rate. Practical significance. Conclusions, suggestions and practical recommendations can be used in the development of investment projects in agriculture and the formation of state programs for the agricultural sector development. Tabl.: 4, Figs.: 4. Refs.: 14.

Analisis Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Kebijakan Dividen, Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Nilai Perusahaan

The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of profitability, dividend policy, inflation, and exchange rates on firm value. The population of this study is the property, real estate, and building construction sector companies listed on ISSI for the 2014-2018 period. In determining the sample data, this study used a purposive sampling method and obtained a sample of 9 companies. Research data is taken from secondary data, namely performance summary reports and reports on inflation and the US dollar exchange rate. The analytical method used to solve the problem in this research is path analysis using the WarpPLS 7.0 application. From this research, it is found that the lower profitability (ROE) and dividend policy (DPR) has a positive and significant effect on firm value (PBV), inflation has a negative and insignificant effect on firm value (PBV) and the exchange rate (US$) has a negative effect. and significant to firm value (PBV).

Spillovers and connectedness in foreign exchange markets: The role of trade policy uncertainty

This paper analyses the directional spillover effects and connectedness for both return and volatility of nine US dollar exchange rates of globally most traded currencies under the influence of trade policy uncertainty. We find two interesting results over the study period ranging from December 1993 to July 2019. First, there exists asymmetric spillovers and connectedness among the considered exchange rates when trade policy uncertainty is present. Second, the volatility spillover is stronger than the return connectedness between exchange rate and trade policy uncertainty. These findings are robust to the presence of economic policy uncertainty effects. Concomitantly, the trade policy uncertainty patterns are also found to be useful for predicting currency market dynamics. Our findings contribute to the debate on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the global economy and financial sector.