Боргова складова забезпечення стійкості публічних фінансів України: стан і тенденції розвитку

Abstract

The article is aimed at evaluating the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt as components of ensuring the sustainability of Ukraine's public finances, identifying trends and factors that determine debt security and affect the pace of development of the country's economy. The article discloses the indicators of measuring the sustainability of public finances; indicators of effectiveness of the policy of ensuring the sustainability of Public Finances of Ukraine until 2030 are presented; the role and importance of debt security in ensuring the sustainability of public finances is determined. A factor analysis of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt is carried out on the main grounds – the average US dollar exchange rate per year, GDP, revenues and expenditures of the State budget – in order to identify trends in changes in its structure and volumes for the period 2016-2020. The main financial risks and the degree of their impact on debt security are defined, a forecast of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the medium term for 2021-2023 has been developed using the polynomial trend. The likelihood of a worsening the debt situation in Ukraine by 2023 and, as a result, a deterioration in the resilience of public finances due to the unfolding of the coronavirus pandemic, which can be equated with the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, is proved. Proposals to improve Ukraine's debt security in the context of the coronavirus pandemic have been substantiated. Prospect for further research in this direction is to prove the need to make managerial decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finances, taking into account not only macroeconomic, but also political and institutional factors, the impact of which increases significantly in the context of democracy.