US Consumer Price Research Articles

Economic and Clinical Burden of Virus-Associated Hemorrhagic Cystitis in Patients Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Introduction: Hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) due to viral infections, such as BK virus, cytomegalovirus and/or adenovirus, after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (allo-HCT) causes morbidity and mortality, impacts quality of life, and poses a substantial burden to the health care system. Virus-associated HC (V-HC) occurs in up to 25% and 54% of pediatric and adult allo-HCT recipients respectively. V-HC is associated with incapacitating pain, life-disturbing urinary symptoms, and in severe forms, severe hematuria requiring transfusion support, bladder obstruction, renal impairment and increased mortality. At present, management is purely supportive as there are no approved or recommended anti-virals for V-HC. The impact of V-HC on health resource utilization (HRU) and HCT outcomes has not been studied at a national level. The objective of this study was to compare the economic burden, HRU and clinical outcomes among allo-HCT recipients with V-HC to those without V-HC using a large US claims database. Methods: A US claims database obtained from the Decision Resources Group Real World Evidence Data Repository was used to identify patients with first (index) allo-HCT procedure from 1/1/2012-12/31/2017. The 1-year period prior to the index allo-HCT was considered as the baseline period. Although, there are diagnosis codes in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 or ICD-10) coding system for HC, there are no specific diagnosis codes to identify V-HC. Hence, an algorithm was developed through clinical guidance to identify these patients among those with HC diagnosis codes (Figure 1). Outcomes were examined in the 1-year post allo-HCT and included total healthcare reimbursements, HRU and clinical outcomes for allo-HCT patients with vs. without V-HC. Total reimbursements were estimated from submitted charges using a reimbursement-to-charge ratio of 0.425 and were reported in 2019 US dollars, adjusted using the medical care component of the US Consumer Price Index. Further, a generalized linear model was used to determine adjusted reimbursements stratified by the presence or absence of any acute or chronic graft-versus-host diseases (GVHD) after adjusting for age, health plan, underlying disease, stem cell source, number of comorbidities, baseline costs, and follow-up time. Results: Of 13,363 allo-HCT recipients, 759 (5.7%) patients met the criteria for V-HC. Total unadjusted mean reimbursement was $632,870 (SD=$640,815) for patients with V-HC and $340,469 (SD=$377,591) for patients without V-HC (Table 1). In multivariable model after adjusting for confounders, the adjusted reimbursements were significantly higher for V-HC patients with and without GVHD compared to patients without V-HC (p<.0001) (Figure 2). V-HC was associated with increased hospital length of stay (LOS) and readmission rates. Patients with V-HC had 7.9 additional days in the hospital (35.5 vs 27.6 days; p<.0001) and 6.1 additional days (34.3 vs. 28.2 days; p=0.0009) in the intensive care unit (ICU) for the index hospitalization, as compared to patients without V-HC (Table 1). The hospital readmission rate was higher for allo-HCT patients with V-HC compared to those without V-HC (3.5 vs. 1.9 per person yr; p<.0001), resulting in 12.9 more days in the hospital (50.0 days vs. 37.1 days; p<.0001) and 7.3 more days in the ICU (25.8 days vs. 18.5 days; p<.0001) after the index hospitalization (Table 1). V-HC was associated with increased mortality in patients with GVHD and increased risk of renal impairment in all allo-HCT patients. Among patients with GVHD, those with V-HC had significantly higher all-cause mortality as compared to those without V-HC (23.2% vs. 18.4%; p=0.0035) (Table 2). When stratified by GVHD, there were no significant differences in the baseline risk for renal impairment; while V-HC was associated with increased risk for renal impairment in the follow-up period in patients with or without GVHD (p<.0001 for both) (Table 2). Conclusions: Allo-HCT patients with V-HC have significantly higher healthcare reimbursements, health resource utilization, and worse clinical outcomes including renal impairment, irrespective of the presence of GVHD; with significantly higher all-cause mortality in the presence of GVHD. Our results highlight the unmet clinical need for effective strategies to prevent and treat V-HC in HCT recipients that may also reduce costs among these patients. Disclosures McGuirk: Pluristem Ltd: Research Funding; Juno Therapeutics: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Astellas: Research Funding; Kite Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Fresenius Biotech: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Gamida Cell: Research Funding; Bellicum Pharmaceutical: Research Funding; Allo Vir: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Moon:AlloVir, Inc.: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Chandak:AlloVir, Inc.: Other: Independent contractor. Zhang:AlloVir, Inc.: Other: Independent contractor. Papanicolaou:Chimerix: Other: Consulting and other fees, Research Funding; Astellas Pharma: Other: Consulting and other fees, Research Funding; Merck & Co.: Other: Consulting and other fees, Research Funding; Octapharma: Other: Consulting and other fees; Partner Therapeutics: Other: Consulting and other fees; ADMA Biologics: Other: Consulting and other fees; Shionogi: Other: Consulting and other fees; Cidara: Other: Consulting and other fees; Amplyx: Other: Consulting and other fees; Siemens: Other; Takeda: Research Funding.

Declining Medicare Reimbursement in Orthopaedic Trauma Surgery: 2000-2020.

To evaluate monetary trends in government (Medicare) reimbursement rates for 20 commonly used orthopedic trauma surgical procedures over a 20-year period. The Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services was queried for the 20 common Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes in orthopaedic trauma, and reimbursement data were extracted. All monetary data were adjusted for inflation to 2020 US dollars (USD) using changes to the US Consumer Price Index. Both the average annual and the total percentage change in reimbursement and in Relative Value Units were calculated for all included procedures. After adjusting for inflation, the average reimbursement for all procedures decreased by 30.0% from 2000 to 2020. Total Relative Value Units during this time increased by 4.4% on average. Procedures about the foot and ankle demonstrated the greatest decrease in the mean adjusted reimbursement at -42.6%, whereas procedures about the shoulder and upper extremity demonstrated the smallest mean decrease at 23.7% during the study period. From 2000 to 2020, the adjusted reimbursement rate for all included procedures decreased by an average of 1.5% each year. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively evaluate trends in procedural Medicare reimbursement for orthopaedic trauma. When adjusted for inflation, Medicare reimbursement for included procedures has steadily decreased from 2000 to 2020. Increased awareness and consideration of these trends will be important for policy makers, hospitals, and surgeons to assure continued access to meaningful surgical orthopaedic trauma care in the United States.

IS IMPORT TARIFF A RIGHT ANSWER TO NEGATIVE TRADE BALANCES?

ABSTRACT On March 4, 2019, Trump administration announced that the US intended to terminate India's designations as a beneficiary developing country under the GSP program after determining that it had not assured the US that it would provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets. Subsequently, on March 8, 2019, the tariffs of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminum were also announced by the Trump administration. Since India is one of the countries exporting steel to the US, this announcement was another blow to India's exports to the U.S. Our study attempts to examine the effect of import tariffs on U.S. balance of trade with India. We test the presence of a J-curve like effect of an import tariff on US-India trade. Our dependent variable is BOT (balance of trade), which is defined as U.S. export to India minus US import from India. Independent variables, in this study, include RRGDP (ratio of US real GDP to India's real GDP), EX (U.S. dollar's exchange rate defined as amount of Indian rupees needed to purchase one USD), and RP (US relative price) defined as the ratio of US consumer price index to India's consumer price index. This study covers the period from 1988 to 2018. We estimated a vector error correction model (VECM). The finding implies that if U.S. imposes or raises a tariff on imports from India, its trade balance with India is likely to be unaffected both in the long run and in the short run. Keywords J-curve effect, export-to-import ratio, exchange rate, unit root, cointegration

Abstract 265: A Literature Review of the Direct Medical Costs of Stroke Across the Care Continuum in the US

Background: The economic burden of stroke is high and expected to increase with the growing stroke incidence among younger adults and the aging population. However, we are unaware of a comprehensive review of the cost drivers across the stroke care continuum. We conducted a literature review and summarized the costs incurred in the inpatient and outpatient settings during the acute and post-acute periods. Methods: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL was conducted to identify cost-of-illness studies published during January 2000-October 2019 that evaluated the direct medical costs of stroke in the US. We extracted both the index hospitalization costs and the costs incurred thereafter. We summarized the costs by stroke type (ischemic, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, transient ischemic attack) and by cost component (e.g., inpatient hospital stays, skilled nursing facility for rehabilitation, physician consultation, medication use). Cost estimates were adjusted to 2019 dollars by using the US Consumer Price Index. Results: Thirty-six studies were included. Thirteen studies (36%) focused on inpatient costs only, twenty-one (58%) estimated both inpatient and outpatient costs, two (6%) examined outpatient costs only. Nine studies (25%) estimated the stroke-attributable costs by using propensity score matching and econometric models. The index hospitalization costed $9,050-$74,525 per admission for ischemic stroke (15 studies), $18,554-$117,991 for hemorrhagic stroke (5 studies), and $9,658-$10,544 for transient ischemic attack (2 studies). Among studies that examined costs beyond the index hospitalization (n=22, 61%), follow-up periods varied from 30 days to 4 years. Sixteen of these studies (73%) estimated total costs only; five (23%) identified costs by period. For ischemic stroke, the total cumulative post-stroke costs were estimated at $15,037 (30-day period), $17,968-$29,704 (90-day), $27,072-$37,611 (180-day), $21,642-$87,135 (1-year), $50,153-$117,683 (2-year), and $70,513-$173,904 (4-year); the proportion attributed to inpatient care reduced from 65% (30-day period) to 46% (4-year). Skilled nursing facility care accounted for 19% of the costs four years post ischemic stroke and for 13% four years post intracerebral hemorrhage stroke. For subarachnoid hemorrhage stroke, inpatient care remained the biggest cost driver four years after the index event (70% of the total cost), followed by outpatient physician services (11%) and skilled nursing facility care (8%). Conclusions: While caution should be taken when interpreting the cost findings due to variation in data sources, study population and analytical methods, the costs of stroke are substantial. Inpatient, skilled nursing facility and outpatient physician costs are the main cost drivers and their contribution to total costs vary greatly over time and by stroke type.

Wage Premiums as a Means to Evaluate the Labor Market for Pharmacy Technicians in the United States: 1997-2018.

Pharmacy technicians are integral members of the health care team, assisting pharmacists and other health professionals in assuring safe and effective medication use. To date, evaluation of the labor market for pharmacy technicians has been limited, and relatively little has been evaluated regarding trends in wages. The objective of this research is to use US Bureau of Labor Statistics (US BLS) data to evaluate changes in pharmacy technician wages in the United States from 1997 to 2018 relative to changes in the US consumer price index (CPI). Median hourly wages for pharmacy technicians were collected from US BLS data from 1997 to 2018. Median hourly wages were compared to expected hourly wages, with the difference, a wage premium, indicative of imbalances in the supply and demand of labor. Both positive and negative wage premiums were observed, with most positive wage premiums occurring prior to 2007 and most negative wage premiums observed after 2008. Differences in wage premiums were also observed between technicians working in various practice settings. Given the median length of employment of pharmacy technicians, it is likely that the majority of technicians working in US pharmacies have not experienced increases in their wages relative to what would be expected by changes in the CPI. This has occurred at a time when pharmacies and pharmacists are asking more of their pharmacy technicians. Researchers and pharmacy managers must continue to evaluate the pharmacy technician labor market to assure that technician wage and compensation levels attract an adequate supply of sufficiently skilled workers.

Lobbying Expenditures and Campaign Contributions by the Pharmaceutical and Health Product Industry in the United States, 1999-2018

Government efforts to lower drug costs and other legislative and regulatory initiatives may be counteracted by campaign donors and lobbyists in the pharmaceutical and health product industry. To review how much money the pharmaceutical and health product industry spent on campaign contributions and lobbying in the US from 1999 to 2018 at the federal and state levels. Analysis of federal-level and state-level data obtained from the Center for Responsive Politics and the National Institute on Money in Politics, respectively. These nonprofit, nonpartisan organizations track federal and state campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures by individuals and groups. Lobbying expenditures and contributions to political campaigns. Total spending, inflation adjusted to 2018 dollars using the US Consumer Price Index, on lobbying and campaign contributions by year, source, and state. From 1999 to 2018, the pharmaceutical and health product industry recorded $4.7 billion-an average of $233 million per year-in lobbying expenditures at the federal level, more than any other industry. Of the spending, the trade group Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America accounted for $422 million (9.0%), and the other 19 top companies and organizations in this industry accounted for $2.2 billion (46.8%). The industry spent $414 million on contributions to candidates in presidential and congressional elections, national party committees, and outside spending groups. Of this amount, $22 million went to presidential candidates and $214 million went to congressional candidates. Of the 20 senators and 20 representatives who received the most contributions, 39 belonged to committees with jurisdiction over health-related legislative matters, 24 of them in senior positions. The industry contributed $877 million to state candidates and committees, of which $399 million (45.5%) went to recipients in California and $287 million (32.7%) went to recipients in 9 other states. In years in which key state referenda on reforms in drug pricing and regulation were being voted on, there were large spikes in contributions to groups that opposed or supported the reforms. From 1999 to 2018, the pharmaceutical and health product industry spent large sums of money on lobbying and campaign contributions to influence legislative and election outcomes. These findings can inform discussions about how to temper the influence of industry on US health policy.

OIL PRICE PREDICTORS: MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH

The paper proposes a machine-learning approach to predict oil price. Market participants can forecast prices using such factors as: US key rate, US dollar index, S&P500 index, VIX index, US consumer price index. After analyzing the results and comparing the accuracy of the model first, we can conclude that oil prices in 2019-2022 will have a slight upward trend and will generally be stable. At the time of the fall in June 2012 the price of Brent fell to a minimum of 17 months. The reason for this was the weak demand for oil futures, which was caused by poor data on the state of the US labor market. Keywords: oil price shocks, economic growth, oil impact, factors, dollar index, inflation; key rate; volatility index; S&P500 index. JEL Classification: C51, C58, F31, G12, G15 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7597

Dynamics Behind Cycles and Co-movements in Metal Prices: An Empirical Study Using Band-Pass Filters

After living one of the most intense metal price cycles, several ongoing macroeconomic phenomena with the potential of structurally redefining the long-run supply and demand for metals, and raising divergency regarding where the metal prices are trending, it is suitable to evaluate the dynamics in the metal prices, especially focus on the long cyclical components. This article studies in detail the cyclical components of the real prices of base metals, iron ore, and gold, applying band-pass filters and a novel decomposition over time series with length as far as 1800. The main findings are: (1) the long cyclical components in real prices are highly correlated among them and with the proposed long economic cycles, (2) short and medium cyclical components are more relevant in explaining the price deviations from their trend, but the long cyclical component is not negligible, (3) co-movement in base metals is strong for all the cyclical components, but decreasing as cyclical frequency increases, and (4) prices are either sideways or upward-trending depending on the assumptions for correction of the US Consumer Price Index, which suggests that the supply side of these industries, in the best case, only offset the cost increases by depletion.

Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model for long-run US household debt determinants

US household debt increased on a yearly basis from 1987 to 2007. In addition, household debt in the USA nearly doubled between 2000 and 2007, from $5.6 trillion to $9 trillion. This came to an abrupt end in 2009 with the crash of the financial market. This paper employs the bound test and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model to determine the long-run relationship between US household debt and consumer prices, housing prices, the unemployment rate, and the lending rate. Unit root tests were conducted first to ascertain the stationarity of the variables. E-views 11 was used in the analysis of the data, which was obtained from Q1: 1990 to Q1: 2007 from the International Monetary Fund and the US FED. It was found that in the long run, there is a negative effect of consumer prices and unemployment on US household debt, while house prices and the lending rate would have a positive effect on household debt.

Forecasting inflation using univariate continuous‐time stochastic models

AbstractIn this paper we investigate the applicability of several continuous‐time stochastic models to forecasting inflation rates with horizons out to 20 years. While the models are well known, new methods of parameter estimation and forecasts are supplied, leading to rigorous testing of out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting at short and long time horizons. Using US consumer price index data we find that over longer forecasting horizons—that is, those beyond 5 years—the log‐normal index model having Ornstein–Uhlenbeck drift rate provides the best forecasts.

Are Mexican Manufacturing Workers Underpaid? Some Quarterly Time Series Evidence

The quarterly empirical relationship between Mexican manufacturing labor productivity and salaries 1993-2015 is examined for causality and whether first order labor market equilibrium is evident. An equilibrium would mean salaries and labor productivity are cointegrated. Wages above productivity levels may lead to calls for government intervention in the labor market. Federal quarterly data cover the nine main divisions of the manufacturing sector (old classification) as well as manufacturing overall. We use two series: labor productivity and average salaries with adjustment for inflation using the US consumer price index (2010 = 100). The time series is from 1993.1 to 2015.3. Standard cointegration analysis with structural change is applied with structural breaks hypothesized in 2008 with the Great Recession and 1995 with the Peso crisis. Tests for stationarity are applied to potentially correct for problems using first differences. Results indicate a statistically significant and negative relationship between labor productivity and salaries early in the sample period that becomes positive after structural changes. Salaries are more sensitive to events and volatile while productivity exhibits stable growth during 1993-2015. Salaries were impacted by both the 1995 Peso crisis and the Great Recession (2008) but productivity was only impacted by the latter. Higher labor productivity has not been rewarded with higher salaries suggesting Mexican manufacturing workers are underpaid. The firms where they work therefore have excess profits that can be used for investment and/or pay raises. Only the Timber and Metals divisions are found to not have salaries and productivity cointegrated. Government intervention in the form of wage setting or wage protection to protect firms from higher labor costs is unnecessary as firms are underpaying their workers. The government should reduce its role in the manufacturing labor markets. Foreign firms can hire underpaid workers away from domestic industry and take advantage of the labor market disequilibrium. Unions can insist on higher salaries to match their highly productive members work.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

Discussion

Discussion

Health Care Utilization and Costs Among Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Using Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors

INTRODUCTIONTyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) remain mainstay in the management of patients with CML. Several TKIs have been approved over the last two decades. Even though efficacy and safety remain as the primary drivers in treatment selection, in recent years importance has been placed on treatment affordability and economic burden associated with the long-term cancer treatments such as TKIs. However, current literature lacks real-world data on healthcare utilization (HCU) and costs among patients with CML using TKIs, which this study aims to address. METHODSRetrospective cohort study was conducted using MarketScan Commercial, and Supplemental Medicare databases (2012-2016). Data includes medical and pharmacy utilization and costs for over 90 million individuals enrolled in employer-sponsored health-plans in the US. Data includes information on but not limited to medical diagnosis, procedures, drugs dispensed, date of service, health plan enrollment. Study involves adult patients (≥18 years) with ≥2 medical claims with a diagnosis of CML (ICD-9-CM: 205.10 - 205.12; ICD-10: C92.10-C92.12) and with a prescription claim for TKI. The date of first-TKI claim defined the index date. Patients were required to have continuous health plan enrollment ≥6 months before (defined as baseline period) and ≥6 months after index date. Selected patients were further classified into 5 sub-groups based on the index TKI observed (prescribed) post CML diagnosis (imatinib, dasatinib, nilotinib, bosutinib, ponatinib). Among the selected patients, all-cause HCU and costs were assessed from index date until end of database or end of enrollment, whichever occurred earlier. HCU and associated costs were assessed overall and by care settings including inpatient, emergency room, physician office, outpatient hospital, outpatient pharmacy, nursing facility and ancillary care. In addition, baseline (6 month) utilization and costs were assessed. Monthly and annual resource utilization and costs were reported for the overall CML cohort (across all TKI users) and by index TKI sub-groups. All costs were reported from a payer perspective (i.e., costs reimbursed by health plan) and adjusted to 2017 US dollars using the US consumer price index (medical component). All analyses were descriptive in nature. RESULTSThe study cohort included 2,213 CML patients. Distribution for the index TKI treatment was as follows: 41% imatinib, 36% dasatinib, 21% and 1% each for bosutinib and ponatinib. Mean age (standard deviation [SD]) of the cohort was 55 (15) years which was similar for individual TKI sub-groups. Majority of patients were males (55%) and 56% were enrolled in a preferred provider organization plan. The mean follow-up duration post-TKI initiation was 607 (442) days. The average baseline monthly all-cause costs were $4,365 with inpatient and pharmacy costs accounting for over 3/4th of the total costs (Figure 1). Post-TKI initiation the average monthly costs were twice ($9,288) compared with the baseline costs ($4,365) and the increase was primarily attributable to higher outpatient pharmacy costs ($6,619, accounted for 71% of total costs) (Figure 2). Monthly costs across other care settings (inpatient, outpatient, emergency room) were similar for the baseline and post-TKI initiation. On average patients had 1.4 office visits, 2.5 prescriptions and 0.7 hospital outpatient visits per month at baseline, which increased by 23%, 38% and 49%, respectively post TKI-initiation. During the 1st year post TKI-initiation, 17% patients in the overall CML cohort had at least 1 inpatient admission and this was consistent across individual TKI-sub-groups (except ponatinib, 50%). CONCLUSIONSFindings on TKI utilization and costs in employer-sponsored health-plan database indicate that average costs and utilization were similar across the TKI sub-groups with pharmacy costs accounting for 71% of the total post TKI initiation costs. Overall, this study helps address the literature gap by providing recent real-world treatment care-setting specific utilization and costs among TKI uses and these data can be of value to several healthcare stakeholders including physicians, managed care plans and researchers in supporting clinical and formulary decisions and also serve as inputs for economic models. Finally, the sample sizes for ponatinib and bosutinb were small and results for these TKIs should be interpreted with caution. [Display omitted] DisclosuresHuang:ZS Associates: Employment; Novo Nordisk Inc: Equity Ownership; AstraZeneca: Research Funding. Karve:AbbVie: Employment, Equity Ownership. Porwal:ZS Associates: Employment. Thakkar:ZS Associates: Employment. Marshall:AbbVie: Employment, Equity Ownership. Rosenberg:AbbVie: Employment, Equity Ownership.

Bayesian estimation of Gegenbauer long memory processes with stochastic volatility: methods and applications

Abstract This paper discusses a time series model which has generalized long memory in the mean process with stochastic volatility errors and develops a new Bayesian posterior simulator that couples advanced posterior maximisation techniques, as well as traditional latent stochastic volatility estimation procedures. Details are provided on the estimation process, data simulation, and out of sample performance measures. We conduct several rigorous simulation studies and verify our results for in and out of sample behaviour. We further compare the goodness of fit of the generalized process to the standard long memory model by considering two empirical studies on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US equity risk premium (ERP).

Exchange Rate, Trade Balance And Growth In Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Analysis

Background and Statement of the Problem: It has been established that countries with high political and economic risks will draws investment funds away prospective investors from other countries, thus, such countries are at greater risks of loss of confidence in her currency stability and movement of capital to more stable economies. The aforementioned problems may discourage growth, macroeconomic stability, human capital development and institutional changes. Thus, there is the need to investigate the asymmetric cointegrating relationship, if any among the rate of exchange, trade balance and growth in Nigeria. Research Methodology and Data: With the primary assumption of the likelihood of an asymmetric adjustment process in the disequilibrium, the study deployed the M-TAR (Momentum - Threshold Autoregressive) and the TAR (Threshold Autoregressive) models. Annual data on imports, exports, domestic real income, world real income, domestic consumer price index and US consumer price index were used and this comes from the World Bank Development Indicators for the period 1960–2016 and all data are denominated in US-Dollars. Research Findings: The result shows that for the TAR model, cointegration exists among the three variables (economic growth, balance of trade and real exchange rate). An asymmetric adjustment disequilibrium process also exists. The point estimates suggest that the adjustment speed is lower when the balance of trade is worsens. The asymmetric ECM suggests that trade balance, real exchange rate and growth respond to disequilibrium and that the coefficient of domestic income and exchange rate are negative and that of foreign income is positive and statistically significant. Policy Implication: Government of Nigeria should concentrate her policy efforts towards import substitution strategy that will facilitate the production of currently imported goods locally, thereby creating sustainable employment and development of industrial manufacturing sector in Nigeria.

Technology Focus: Coiled-Tubing Applications (June 2017)

Technology Focus This time last year, there was uncertainty as to what the future held for our industry as a whole and the coiled-tubing sector in particular. Today, the mantra appears to be “lower for longer.” With the price of oil hovering around USD 50/bbl, is this really the case? Looking at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for West Texas intermediate and Brent spot crude oil prices, it was not until 2005 that prices rose and consistently stayed above the USD 50 mark, with a short dip below that in 2008. On the cost side of the equation, the US Consumer Price Index in 2005 was 195 (1982 is the base year of 100) and 240 for 2016. Looking at US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, oil and gas extraction employment rose from 1,287,000 to 1,932,000 in the US between 2005 and 2015, peaking in 2014. Placing the coiled-tubing sector within this context, the global coiled-tubing-unit count has increased from 1,163 in 2005 to 1,951 in 2016, with the peak being 2,096 units in 2015 (Intervention and Coiled Tubing Association worldwide coiled-tubing rig count). So what do these statistics imply? They would seem to reflect trends that are currently manifesting themselves: a decrease in activity, continuing rising costs, and a reduced return. However, even with the lower current situation, overall activity has not dropped to 2005 levels; the demand side of the curve is still trending upward. (EIA world petroleum consumption data show 84.7 million B/D in 2005 to 95.1 million B/D in 2016.) Therefore, efficiency and effectiveness will continue to be strong influencing factors in the development of the coiled-tubing market sector. Efficiency and effectiveness can be achieved in differing ways. This year’s papers provide readers with examples of efficiencies that have been achieved in coiled-tubing operations. The papers demonstrate how problem-solving techniques have been applied to improve such aspects as on-site processes, fit-for-purpose equipment, coiled-tubing-string selection for process optimization, and more-effective treatment placement. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. OTC 26690 Journey to Success—Advancement of Coiled-Tubing Drilling in Malaysia by Zhon Wei Ooi, Petronas, et al. SPE 182905 Coiled-Tubing Technology for Extending the Reach in Sand-Screen-Completed and Openhole Wells by Karim Elrashidi, Baker Hughes, et al.

The effect of women’s representation on the Global Gender Gap Index

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to find the most important factors to the Index that explains gender gaps in education, health, politics, and economic outcomes worldwide.Design/methodology/approachWorld Economic Forum (WEF) data are analyzed using hedonic regression analysis to estimate which factors affect a country’s Global Gender Gap Index. Standardized β coefficients reveal the top five factors influencing the Index, just as key components of the US Consumer Price Index are teased out using this method.FindingsWomen in public sector management, administration, and politics explain a substantial portion of gender inequality. Policies to increase women’s representation in parliaments, as heads of state, in ministerial positions, and in public sector management mitigate inequality as gauged by the Gender Gap Index. Economic indicators are also among the leading components of the Gender Gap Index.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough comprehensive and drawn from several sources including the World Health Organization, the International Labour Organization, and the United Nations Development Programme, WEF data do not capture the full experience of women worldwide. Subsequent qualitative research is recommended.Practical implicationsThis analysis reveals policy recommendations for advocates working to close gender gaps, particularly in politics and economic outcomes. Increasing proportions of women in public sector management can mitigate inequality. This supports electoral quotas and human resource management initiatives to diversify management ranks.Social implicationsIncreasing women’s share of public sector managerial positions fosters gender equity, as does increasing women’s share of elected and appointed positions.Originality/valueThis study provides quantitative evidence of the important role of women’s representation to guide subsequent fieldwork. This evidence supports efforts to increase women in elective office and public sector management.

A Study of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Influence on China’s Tea Export Value

It is an empirical analysis of whether RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) can influence China’s tea export value and how, using least square method and error correction model to establish long-term and short-term equilibrium relationships among variables on the basis of unit root test, autocorrelation test and co-integration test. The empirical results show that RMB appreciation can increase China’s tea export value in the short term, but decrease in the long term; the average price rise of China’s tea export can increase the tea export either in the long term or short; US consumer price index (CPI) rise can increase China’s tea export in the long term, but decrease in the short term; China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for China economic climate can also accelerate China’s tea export. But all the influences are not significant

Modelling the extreme variability of the US Consumer Price Index inflation with a stable non-symmetric distribution

Stable distributions have interesting properties that make them a versatile tool suitable for modelling a wide range of processes from different scientific fields, from meteorology to computer science and from communications to economic theory. Our objective is to use stable laws to get an insight at the distributional characteristics and behavior of the US Consumer Price Index inflation. Such a descriptive model is essentially an easy to use tool that provides us with useful information about the Index, via its ability to generate series with similar characteristics. Besides using an appropriate non-parametric test, an examination via an ensemble of a large number of simulated series is implemented in order to assess the accuracy of the model. Its capabilities and adaptability make it a useful tool for everyone analyzing processes from the field of economics.