US-China Rivalry Research Articles

Shades of grey: riskification and hedging in the Indo-Pacific

This essay unpacks the hedging behavior of small and secondary states by focusing on Southeast Asian responses to the intense US-China rivalry and the emergence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in the Indo-Pacific region. It contends that the weaker states’ perceptions of external realities are not black and white, but shades of grey, as uncertainty breeds ambiguity and ambivalence. The states often do not view a major power (and its initiatives) as either a clear-cut threat or a straightforward solution. Instead, they perceive a spectrum of risks and challenges, each with constantly changing manifestations and magnitude, all of which require complex combinations of mutually-reinforcing and counteracting measures. All ASEAN states have mixed attitudes towards the competing powers, viewing both the Quad’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as bringing not only opportunities but also risks and dangers. These ambivalent perceptions entail a process of ‘riskification’, where states identify and prioritize certain risks while downplaying others, in ways that serve elite interests at home. Hence, while nearly all the ASEAN states have stressed in varying degrees the risks of entrapment, abandonment, polarization and marginalization, many have downplayed the dangers of big-power aggressiveness and interference, some more so than others. The varying riskification patterns thus lead to varying hedging acts, prompting subtly different responses to the emerging realities.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: The Hedging Option

Pakistan finds itself at the horns of a strategic dilemma as the US-China rivalry intensifies in international politics. At the heart of the dilemma is the spectre of choosing between the US and China which has the intended effect of raising costs for Pakistan’s foreign policy. Recent commentaries on Pakistan’s foreign policy advocate the need for Pakistan to strike a balance between China and the US. In contradistinction to such commentaries, the present article makes a more nuanced case for the ‘hedging’ strategy. Hedging involves policies that advocate a mixture of return-maximization and risk-contingency planning that circumvents the dominance of major powers. The article argues that Pakistan’s hedging strategy necessitates the avoidance of binaries in international politics, domestic political stability and the prioritization of economic gains.

Geopolitical “Entanglements” and the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma

ABSTRACT The geopolitical situation in South Asia is witnessing entangled trends, which are reflected as chronic India-Pakistan confrontation, the frigid China-India relationship and the increasing US-China competition. China doesn’t want to be involved in the India-Pakistan confrontation, but it’s an undeniable fact that the China factor is shaping India-Pakistan interaction to some extent. Though the United States is an extra-regional power, it has a long history of being involved in regional affairs. Considering China, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons, it’s extremely important to analyze the geopolitical trends and implications for the nuclear chain. This paper argues that the United States has been focusing on strategic competition against China, and the bilateral relationship will face fierce challenges before reaching new balance. The China-India relationship is becoming competitive and volatile, and the old framework of stabilizing bilateral relations is disintegrating. The conflicting ideology of nation-building, the extremely contradicted security perception, and the battle for geostrategic advantage in the region all contribute to India-Pakistan confrontation. Though nuclear weapons, functioning as a strategic deterrence tool, will curtail concerning parties from large-scale war, and China strongly advocates for a common and cooperative security concept, the geopolitical entanglement will have serious impact on the regional nuclear situation. This paper also gives recommendations for managing this interaction. All concerned parties should strive to overcome the security dilemma and maintain peace and stability in this region by strengthening confidence-building measures, conducting nuclear issue dialogues and improving crisis management mechanisms.

South Korea’s Evolving Balanced Diplomacy and China: A Discourse and Big Data Analysis of President Moon Jae-in’s Perception

What is the strategy that made the Moon Jae-in administration maintain a 'balanced diplomacy', thus far? Regarding this, the views of Seoul's allies were negative and sometimes harsh. This paper tries to reveal the substance of Seoul's strategic position and its China policy by analyzing Moon's perception of national security. Here, the term of national security is assumed to have four aspects: existential threat, structural threat, economic secutiry, and political security. As a research methodology, we mainly used discourse and big data analysis. The results revealed that Moon's perception of China stood out for his pragmatism in flexibly responding to the external changes. In terms of national interests, he wanted to secure China's cooperation on the Korean Peninsula issue, ensure diplomatic and security autonomy against the US-China competition, hedge against various economic threats, and overcome domestic confrontation between progressives and conservatives. If we look at Moon's perception considering the meanings of balance, he shows a strong reluctance to outright power politics by great powers, an unexpectedly indifferent attitude toward the negative impact of the US-China competition on the stability and peace of Northeast Asian and the peninsula, and a strong desire to improve the poor distribution of power through national capacity building.

India – Australia relations in the context of China’s rise

This article analyzes the India–Australia relationship within the challenged context of the US–China rivalry and of the rise of China. The details of this bilateral relationship need to be focused for analyzing cooperation trends and common national interests of the two countries. This paper will apply various theoretical perspectives of international studies for examining the empirical data from official declarations, policies of the two countries and academic research studies directly related to the India–Australia relationship. The hypothesis of this research is that the Indo-Pacific regional structuralization and great powers’ rivalries would lead to the context in which the regional power competition and new regional institutions establishment would promote the common strategic interests and balancing policies between the US and China of the two countries. Therefore, the bilateral relationship between India and Australia would have opportunities for further development in the future.

Clash of Powers: US-China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance

Clash of Powers: US-China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance

East meets West: challenges and responses in pandemic times

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has few recent parallels in terms of its scale and scope in contemporary human history. Its after-effects are ongoing, many of which include a devastating impact on economies and societies the world over. Within this Special Issue, we reflect on the major impacts, trends and consequences that have arisen from spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in the past two years. In doing so, we highlight the varying responses of national governments and international institutions, explore the causes behind the choice of different models to suppress the pandemic, and evaluate the way in which those choices have had material impacts on communities, economies and governments. We also focus on some of the specific interactions between China and the outside world, including its relationship and cooperation with Asia and Europe, amidst US-China rivalry.

Minilateralism and Great Power Competition during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Minilateral institutions such as Lancang-Mekong Cooperation and Lower Mekong Initiative have an indispensable role in channeling the influence of external powers to the Mekong region. This article analyzes the impact of US-China competition on minilateral institutions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. By using institutional balancing theory, this article explains the geopolitical and geoeconomic imperative behind the minilateral cooperation in Mekong during the pandemic. As the external powers compete for influence, the range of minilateral cooperation has expanded to solve the issues brought by the pandemic, especially health security and economic recovery. However, notwithstanding the assistance, Mekong countries remain steadfast in maintaining their autonomy. Regional powers such as Vietnam and Thailand did this by harnessing the intra-regional institution and diversifying their partners.

Minimal peace in Northeast Asia: a realist-liberal explanation

Northeast Asia is usually associated with conflict and war. Challenging this prevailing view, this article shows that the sub-region has achieved minimal peace since its peaceful transition from the Cold War to the post-Cold War period. The questions posed are: (a) what factors are responsible for Northeast Asia’s minimal peace?; and (b) how will these factors respond to the worsening US-China competition since 2010? This article’s argument is two-fold. First, Northeast Asia’s minimal peace is explained by three realist-liberal factors: America’s hegemony; strong economic interdependence among the Northeast Asian states; and a stable institutional structure in East Asia, including Northeast Asia. These factors kept a stable balance of power, ensured development and prosperity, and mitigated the political and strategic tensions between the states. Second, Northeast Asia’s minimal peace would be durable to counter the negative effects of the Sino-US competition in the coming decades. While the economic interdependence and institutional building factors have shown resilience, the US hegemony faces a robust challenge from China. Nevertheless, the US hegemony is durable because of America’s enduring relative strategic and economic advantages over China, the expanded role of America’s regional allies to preserve US preponderance and China’s problems in building an alternative regional order.

Special issue on the ‘sources of peace and peaceful change in East Asia’1

East Asia is usually associated with war and conflict. This applies to its historical past, as well as to the present post-Cold War period. In fact, this pessimism on the region has hardened with the worsening structural US-China competition since 2010. Challenging this prevailing view, this special issue argues that the concepts of peace and peaceful change are critical elements to explain East Asian regional dynamics in the post-Cold War period. It poses the following questions: (a) how could peace and peaceful change be analysed conceptually at the regional level?; (b) what type of peace and peaceful change notions are applicable to East Asia?; (c) what are the sources and mechanisms of regional peace in East Asia and its sub-regions and how have the sources and mechanisms changed over the post-Cold War period?; (d) how has the worsening US-China structural competition affected the prospects of peace in East Asia?; and (e) how do the middle powers, namely Japan, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia, contribute to peace and peaceful change in the region? The special issue is the first attempt to systematically apply the concepts of peace and peaceful change on East Asia. The articles identify the sources and mechanisms of peace and peaceful change, apply an eclectic conceptual approach that combines traditional and non-traditional IR theories; and assess the prospects of peace in East Asia in the context of the worsening structural tensions presented by the US-China competition.

US-China Strategic Competition and Converging Middle Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

The 21st century’s central economic nexus will be centred on the Indo-Pacific region. Simultaneously, the intensifying US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific is deepening. Regional middle powers must negotiate this competition to ensure their interests remain intact. This article applies a realist framework to analyse the strategic alignment of Australia, Japan, and India in response to the great power competition. It examines the strategy each middle power is pursuing to protect their interests and the motivations behind their approaches. It finds a convergence in middle power interests centred on maritime behaviour, adherence to international law, and investment in regional institutions.

Bolstering the Alliance for a Trilateralism‐Based Security Strategy for South Korea in Times of US–China Rivalry*

As the strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, South Korea is facing growing pressure to chart an optimal diplomatic strategy to navigate the convoluted geopolitics and foster lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. At this crucial juncture, this study examines multi‐faceted, capacity‐building measures for peace aimed at precluding Sino–US friction in the East and South China Seas from spilling over into the Korean Peninsula. This article presents a road map to stimulate and reinvigorate security cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan and economic cooperation among South Korea, China, and Japan in a virtuous cycle, and by extension to craft a dialogue channel among South Korea, the United States, and China. It also puts forward a three‐stage program for the evolution of the South Korea–US alliance whereby South Korea secures flexibility in its approach to China based on the robust trust of the alliance. This is to enable South Korea to assume a key role in connecting the three trilateral cooperation channels with the development of the Seoul–Washington alliance being a key driver to expand Seoul's diplomatic capacity. In the end, this study envisions a foreign policy model for South Korea that would allow the middle‐power country to punch above its weight by expanding the framework of cooperative security. It aims to ultimately pursue a multilateral, common security architecture in Northeast Asia, including China, which will serve as a multilayered catalyst to promote lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Clash of Powers: US-China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance. By Kristen Hopewell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 249p. $89.99 cloth, $29.99 paper.

Clash of Powers: US-China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance. By Kristen Hopewell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 249p. $89.99 cloth, $29.99 paper.

The Current Impacts of the Us - China Strategic Competition on Vietnam

Vietnam has a quite special position in the comprehensive foreign policy of the US and China in Southeast Asia thanks to its important geostrategic location in this region. “Whoever controlling Vietnam can control Southeast Asia”.1 In the complicated context of US-China competition, beside the same impacts as Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam also suffers from other impacts due to its unique geo-strategic location. In order to clarify the impacts of US-China strategic competition on Vietnam, the article will present the following contents: (1) Vietnam's geostrategic location; (2) The impacts of US-China competition on Vietnam.

Clash of Powers: US–China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance by Kristin Hopewell Cambridge University Press, 2021

Clash of Powers: US–China Rivalry in Global Trade Governance by Kristin Hopewell Cambridge University Press, 2021

Land and Sea: The Evolving Great-power Contest in Asia

The contest for strategic dominance in Asia between the United States and China is playing out differently inland and at sea. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China’s influence across swathes of inland Asia is ascendant, due also to China’s strengthening partnerships with Iran, Pakistan and Russia. However, a bigger set of challenges confronts China’s growing maritime ambitions, since the US has corralled its own partners through arrangements such as AUKUS and the Quad to balance China’s growing naval ambitions. While nothing can predetermine the future course of US–China rivalry in Asia, its emerging contours indicate an inner Asia relatively free of Western influence and an increasingly contested maritime Asia.

Beyond ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a buzzword: Learning from China’s BRI experience

ABSTRACT This exploratory article is interested in how transnational foreign policy ideas are shaped and institutionalised. One such idea that has re-emerged more prominently since the early 2000s is that of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ that covers the geoeconomic landscape of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The question is whether such a concept can exist beyond white papers and the current environment of US–China competition. In order to understand how transnational concepts become embedded and promoted, the example of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – not only as the perceived anti-thesis to the Indo-Pacific but also as a relatively successful concept in Africa–China ties – will be examined. While there is no strict formula for the success of foreign policy ideas that go on to become institutionalised, it is of interest to understand the elements and contexts that bring about concept durability beyond their initial formation.

Building Guardrails: Crisis Management in China–US Competition

Intensifying US–China rivalry has heightened the risk of accidental crises that might spiral out of control. Even as President Biden continues much of the Trump administration’s confrontational approach to China, senior Biden administration officials agree on the strategic imperative of improving the risk reduction mechanisms between Beijing and Washington. Though the odds of armed conflict arising from deliberate provocations may be low, the risks of spinoff crises in China’s periphery and accidental crises in emerging domains like space and cyberspace have grown in recent years. Amid growing geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, better crisis management serves the interests of China, the United States, and the world at large. Beijing should maintain its effective deterrence by upholding the “security through mutual trust” principle and laying out clear red lines. It should also resist Washington’s efforts to include illegitimate interests and conduct risk reduction mechanisms and promote multilateral security talks on the codes of conduct in space, cyberspace, and other emerging domains.

The US-China Rivalry in South Asia and Pakistan’s hedging dilemma

The US-China Rivalry in South Asia and Pakistan’s hedging dilemma

U.S-China Competition in Africa: The Strategic Ambiguity

This paper briefly discusses the essence of the US-China competition in Africa and introduces a principial categorization to group their respective interests in Africa. It is about what US and China individually want or seek to achieve in Africa, through their own tools and policies towards the continent. For that, we thought, understanding these elements and dimensions will enable the students of International Relations in general and of great power politics, in particular, to better elucidate the post-cold war international system dynamics especially, in the developing world. The principial categorization, through the case of the DRC, helps understand why the US-China competition is overall moderate.