Urbanization In Pakistan Research Articles

Urbanization-led land cover change impacts terrestrial carbon storage capacity: A high-resolution remote sensing-based nation-wide assessment in Pakistan (1990–2020)

While carbon sequestration is significant to achieve the net zero and plays an important role in climate change mitigation, urbanization-led land use land cover (LULC) changes are causing significant impacts on the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite rapid urbanization in Pakistan, previous studies focus solely on localized areas without documenting the influence of urbanization on carbon stock. Hence, insights regarding the carbon storage dynamics (CSD) in response to LULC changes become essential to drive informed decisions and policies. In this context, we leverage high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing data to evaluate and map the grid-level spatial-temporal interactions between urbanization and CSD at the national scale in Pakistan during 1990–2020. To do so, multi-sensor earth observation data are retrieved and processed using the Google Earth Engine and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs models. Our findings indicate that urban areas have expanded exponentially (an increase of ∼1040%), resulting in reduced carbon storage (a decrease of ∼ − 5%). Major cities (e.g., Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad) showed less urban sprawl while emerging cities (e.g., Rawalpindi and Peshawar) demonstrated higher urban sprawl, primarily due to shifting patterns from rangeland (∼47%) and agriculture (∼35%) to built-up class. Though some afforestation projects have increased forest carbon stocks in the northern region, there is a large north-south spatial heterogeneity in carbon storage loss across Pakistan. The presented high-resolution mapping of CSD over the past three decades advances our understanding of where and how much urbanization has influenced carbon sequestration, nationally. Considering the results, this study emphasizes the need for policies and management approaches that support sustainable urbanization, which does not compromise carbon pools in the country.

A game theory approach to land acquisition conflicts in Pakistan

Rapid urbanization in Pakistan requires new public infrastructures, which necessitates land acquisitions. However, Land Acquisition Act, 1894 (LAA, 1894) is primitive, recessive, complex, and prone to land conflicts, requiring systematic research exploring the logic of the legal conduct. This paper converts LAA, 1894 into an extensive-form game to explain the logic of land acquisition conflicts in Pakistan, as incumbents interact strategically. The Nash equilibrium (NE) of the extensive-form game suggests Land Acquisition Collector has an absolute advantage over settlers, reasoned by flawed compensation assessment. Thus, a bad win-win situation induces illegitimate behavior, extending the paper to Artificial Price Hike and Corruption-based game models. The mixed-strategy NE of both models suggests that illegitimate behaviors remain unchecked because of the high litigation costs, lack of transparency, the informality of land, and insufficient cadastral information. Finally, the models are calibrated with current land acquisition conflicts and legal precedents in the study area. This paper provides generalized interactive game models applicable to study the logic of land conflicts amid legal and policy implementation and suggests policies to improve the land administration and legal system to manage conflicts.

Political implications of unplanned urbanization in Pakistan: A Case of Punjab

Political implications of unplanned urbanization in Pakistan: A Case of Punjab

Socio-Economic Determinants of Urbanization in the Perspective of Pakistan

This analysis examines the socioeconomic determinants of urbanization in Pakistan by using data from 1970 to 2020. For data estimation, an ARDL technique and error correction model is used. The main outcomes show that the variables gross domestic savings, inflation rate, industrialization, education, population growth rate, and GDP per capita are positively associated with urbanization, while the variables financial development and exports are negatively associated with urbanization in Pakistan. However, the impact of inflation rate, remittances, exports of goods and services and GDP per capita on urbanization is statistically insignificant. Considering the study outcomes, it is suggested that to control the increasing growth of urbanization in Pakistan, it is important to design policies to improve the basic necessities in rural areas and strengthen the agriculture sector to discourage rural-to-urban migration.

Narratives of social change: cultural perceptions and responses to globalization and rural urbanization in Pakistan

Narratives of social change: cultural perceptions and responses to globalization and rural urbanization in Pakistan

Assessing Spatial-Temporal Changes in Monetary Values of Urban Ecosystem Services through Remotely Sensed Data

Reckless urbanization in developing regions is leading to the deterioration of the urban environment. The ensuing impacts can place a burden on urban ecology, urban infrastructure, and residents. This scenario requires a combination of avoidance measures and a detailed assessment of the ecological sustainability of the city. While monetary assessments are certainly conceivable, in this study, the contributions of urban environmental infrastructure are weighed financially. Semi-planned (Jhang) and planned (Faisalabad) urban settlements provided the context for this survey. The study uses the Benefit Transfer Method (BTM) to assess changes in the monetary value of urban ecosystem services (UES) from remote sensing data. This finding suggests that urbanization in Pakistan is devouring productive ecological land in urban areas. The assessment shows that between 1989 and 2019, the agricultural area in Faisalabad shrank (−17.38%), and the built-up area increased (16.05%). Likewise, in Jhang City, the built-up area (4.44%) and wasteland (3.10%) swelled. However, during this period (1989–2019), the proportion of agricultural land in Jhang City decreased (−8.93%). As a result, prime areas of UES are falling back into low-return areas. It also found that provisioning ecosystem services (PES) accounted for a significant portion (68.12%) of the UES produced in Faisalabad and Jhang (69.72%), respectively. In contrast, Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) contributed the smallest share of UES in Faisalabad (1.63%) and Jhang (1.65%). However, the remaining two services, regulatory and support services, made significant contributions. The assessment shows the role of incoherence, inconsistency, resource constraints, and neglect in compromising the urban environmental integrity of these cities. This situation requires a comprehensive assessment and coordinated effort. For this, it is feasible and useful to combine socioeconomic information with land cover data through computerized equipment.

Analysing Crimes And Economic Misery In Pakistan: Ardl Bound Testing Approach

The present study explains economic discomfort, financial shocks, and rapid urbanization increase crime in a country. Furthermore, this research work highlights the extent to which economic misery and an increase in urbanization create countless socioeconomic problems in society. The study used annual time series secondary data for the period 1990 to 2021 collected from different sources. Researchers have found very limited evidence of economic misery and crime in the existing literature on Pakistan. Thus, carrying out research work on the subject was the need of the day. The foremost objective of the research work was to examine crime rates in the presence of economic misery, as denoted by Hanke's Annual Misery Index (HAMI) and urbanization in Pakistan. The stationarity of the data has been checked by correlogram and Ljung-Box (LB) statistics. The study used an Autoregressive Distributed Lags approach to investigate how economic misery and urbanization affect criminal activity in Pakistan. The crime model produced substantial results, and the outcomes are consistent with the expectations. The findings revealed that the HAMI and urbanization coefficients are significant with a positive sign, implying that economic hardship and an increase in urban population have exacerbated Pakistan's crime rate. To control crimes, the government might have to adopt new strategies that may decrease economic misery, i.e., keep inflation at a desirable level, reduce unemployment, improve economic growth, and discourage urbanization.

NEXUS BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, AND URBANIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ECONOMY

This empirical study contributes to extend the literature on the nexus between energy consumption, financial development, economic growth, and urbanization in Pakistan. We use annual time series data covering the year from 1970 to 2018 and employ the Autoregressive Distributive lag (ARDL) and Granger causality test. The results of the ARDL-bound test confirm cointegration between the variables, as the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. Further, the long-run results show that financial development and urbanization have positive correlation with energy demand. However, economic growth is negatively correlated with energy consumption. Similarly, in the short run, the financial market and urbanization stimulated energy demand. However, economic growth is insignificant with energy consumption. Besides that, a bidirectional relationship is noted between urbanization and energy consumption. Based on the finding, this empirical study suggests that policymakers and government should revisit their policies regarding economic growth, explore alternative sources of energy, and try to shift towards renewable energy, which is cheaper and eco-friendly.

Assessing Land Cover Transformation for Urban Environmental Sustainability through Satellite Sensing

Rapid urbanization in Pakistan is triggering regulated and unregulated land cover changes in planned and semiplanned urban areas. The key objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal fluctuations in the land use/land cover (LULC) transformations in planned (Islamabad) and semiplanned (Rawalpindi) urban areas over the last forty years (1976–2016). The study focuses on the orientation of LULC modifications and analyzes concomitant impacts on urban environmental sustainability. Therefore, remotely sensed data were retrieved and processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE) by applying supervised classifier algorithms on each of the five chosen Landsat images. The trajectory of LULC changes for each of the four periods 1976–1988, 1988–1995, 1995–2006 and 2006–2016 was critically scrutinized. The observations revealed massive physical expansions and LULC convergences during these timeframes. The proportionate share of built-up surfaces in this contextual setting substantially stretched from 0.83% in 1976 to 23.23% in 2016, while the shares of cropland and shrubberies significantly reduced. The orientation and magnitude of such changes were observed asymmetrically in the adjoining urban settlements. The assessments formulate that availability of land for urban growth, urban planning and regulatory control significantly determines the speed, scale and orientation of urbanization in planned and semiplanned areas. The study substantiates the notions that the efficient use of cost-effective remotely sensed data offers a pragmatic and reliable tool for assessing, evaluating and monitoring urban land resources. The inferences and insights are relevant for urban and regional planners as well as for other scientific communities.

Into the Civic life: The Nexus of Urbanization, Education and Women’s Empowerment in Pakistan

Women comprise nearly 50 percent of the population of Pakistan which is enriched with a variety of regional, cultural, and ethnic values. These values are traditionally responsible for limiting opportunities for women and keeping them less empowered. This study examines the link between education and urbanization that is empowering women in Pakistan. Time series data for the period of 1980 to 2019 has been used for empirical analysis. The stationarity of data has been checked by using the ADF unit root test. All the variables used in the study have a unit root at the level and become stationary at first difference. Johansen's co-integration technique is utilized to check the long-run relationship between the variables used in the study. Instead of using any single variable, we have constructed the Women Empowerment Index (WEI) by using multiple women-related indicators for in-depth analysis. Empirical findings indicate that women's empowerment is positively associated with education and urbanization in Pakistan. Other controlled variables include domestic credit with a positive association and inflation with a negative association. The study shows that empowering women is sensitive to urbanization and education. There must be women-specific educational and training institutions across the country with a special focus on rural areas for equal availability of opportunities for women of all cultures. Urbanization provides greater social, economic and political opportunities for women. Same opportunities should be provided for women in rural areas to make them more empowered. Moreover, control of inflation and the provision of credit on easy terms will also help to enhance women's contribution to economic activity in Pakistan.

Nexus of Crime Rate, Misery Index and Urbanization in Pakistan

The co-existence of crime rate, misery index and urbanization has become an emerging challenge across the developing globe. The present research, primarily explores the economic and demographic factors affecting the crime rate in the country and also identify the co-incidence of crime rate, misery index and urbanization in Pakistan. The study based upon the annually time series data to be collected through the various secondary sources during 1973 to 2020. ARDL Bound testing technique have been used to determine the short run and long run association among the variables. The findings of the study exhibits the long run relationship connected with crime rate, misery index and urbanization. The results suggest that increasing misery index and widening urbanization largely contributes to magnify the crimes in Pakistan. The government may take suitable measures to improve the miserable situation and also demotivate the urbanization factor; so that the crime rate may decline in the country.

Spatio-temporal analysis of urban sprawl in Islamabad, Pakistan during 1979–2019, using remote sensing

Urbanization in Pakistan is increasing at 3% annually, the highest in South Asia. 50% of the population is expected to urbanize by 2025. The capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad has experienced phenomenal increase in the urban population and extent in the last four decades. The aim of this research was to analyze the urban sprawl of Islamabad and changes in the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), with the help of satellite images. LULC statics were extracted from Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) images, for the years 1979, 1989, 1999, 2008 and 2019. There is an increase of 377 sq. km in built-up areas and slight increase of 47 sq km in the agriculture land. The forest cover has been reduced by 83 sq km and the water bodies have also reduced. The barren land has experienced an unprecedented decrease of 333 sq km in the meanwhile. The master plan is under revision to regularize such uncontrolled constructions and accommodate the increased demand. The city, as a result, has been facing issues of water supply, sanitation, transportation etc. This has seriously jeopardized the master plan of the city.

An analysis of urban sprawl in Pakistan: consequences, challenges, and the way forward

Pakistan is urbanizing at a tremendous tempo in South Asia and is the world’s 6th most populous country. The key objectives of this review paper were to evaluate the general situation of urban sprawl in Pakistan, investigate the methodological tactics used in the previously published literature, and identify the major geographical areas yet not been surveyed. This literature review was conducted to collect and synthesize pertinent data from the previously published research papers accessed through the utilization of different databases and search engines. The most recently published research papers (2010-2019) were incorporated in this review article. Those research papers were retrieved which contain data related to urban sprawl in Pakistan. Roundabout 26 research articles were comprehensively reviewed. It was scrutinized that in all these accessed research articles, almost similar methodologies (Case Studies) were utilized. Most of the researchers carried out cross-sectional qualitative and descriptive studies, through secondary data analysis to identify the causes, impact, influence, and consequences of urbanization on agricultural land conversion, migration, changing land ownership patterns, settlement issues, water scarcity, pollution, extinction of botanical species, etc. Migration, development of peri-urban areas around the outer rim of the cities, installation of industrial units, improved infrastructure, and population growth have been concluded as the prime reasons of the rapid urban sprawl in Pakistan. There is a dire need for quantitative and mixed method research to understand and have an insight into the underlying factors of Urbanization in Pakistan.

Resilient Urbanization: A Systematic Review on Urban Discourse in Pakistan

Urbanization is a common phenomenon in the modern world. It has come with new challenges, especially for developing countries. Such countries, therefore, have to stay ahead in their preparedness efforts to meet these urban issues halfway. Unfortunately, urban residents in Pakistan are living in serious social, physical, and economic hardships. Despite being economic engines, cities in Pakistan suffer from stresses like climate change, haphazard and unregulated expansion, housing shortage, and a lack of basic civic amenities. While using systematic review methodology, we collected published and grey data from national and international sources. Literature shows that successive governments in Pakistan gave ample space to urban development in most of the policy documents. However, urban resilience and community engagement were given scant attention. This major gap, both in policy and practice, needs to be bridged to promote resilient and sustainable urbanization in Pakistan.

Determining Linguistic and Cultural Diminution: An Analysis of Urbanization and Migration in Pakistan

Urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon in which people move to cities for multiple reasons. Before partition in 1947, the trend of urbanization in Pakistan was not so popular. However, after independence, this trend increased manifold. As urbanization increased, the migrants also started losing their precious native languages and other things related to culture. The present study also focuses on how the in-migration from rural to urban areas in Pakistan has caused a decline in the native language and culture of the migrants belonging to Murree. The sample of 142 people across the gender was selected from Murree, Pakistan. The participants had shifted to urban areas in the past and permanently settled in the city culture where Urdu, the national language was mostly dominant. The detailed open-ended ethnographic interviews of the participants revealed that the whole Pahari culture and Pahari language is under threat as a consequence of this urbanization.

Technical and Scale Efficiency Analysis of Cash Crops Production in Pakistan: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

The study has analyzed the technical efficiency of major cash crops' yield in Pakistanfrom 1948 till 2018. Cotton and sugarcane are the crops selected for analysis with an area ofthousand hectares. For carrying out the analysis, data is taken from the Ministry of Food andAgriculture (MINFA), Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and economic surveys of Pakistan of differentyears. The technique employed in the study is the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) technique. The result obtained after technical efficiency analysis reveal the suboptimal cashcrop yield in Pakistan throughout the analysis. The average technical efficiency of cotton andsugarcane crops from 1948 to 2018 are approximately 0.80 and 0.84 respectively. Furthermore,the result of scale efficiency analysis showed the monotonous performance of cash crops'production. The consistent variation in cotton and sugar cane crops' yield over the years reportedby the efficiency analysis, accounts for Constant Return to Scale (CRS) and Variable Return toScale (VRS) models, resulted in varying Return to Scale (RTS). The plausible reasons can beattributed to the Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS) or Decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS) in thecase of cotton and sugarcane production. An interesting finding is unveiled that out of 70 years,cotton and sugarcane crops achieved the optimal scale efficiencies for only one year. The bestpossible level of output of cotton and sugarcane crops in the future can be achieved by allocatinga lesser area under the cultivation of these crops in Pakistan. It is also imperative that farmers adoptand implement modern farm technologies. Increasing the area under crop production is not asolution, especially in the wake of alarming population growth and urbanization in Pakistan. Theformulation of policies encouraging farmers requires modern farm inputs to realize the optimalyield of cash crops in Pakistan. The government should educate the farmers regarding advancedfarming and efficient farm management techniques to help to augment the farm output withoutexpansion of the area for these crops

Exploring the linkage among energy intensity, carbon emission and urbanization in Pakistan: fresh evidence from ecological modernization and environment transition theories.

This study uses ecological modernization and environmental transition theories to estimate the interaction among energy intensity, carbon emission and urbanization for the period of 1980-2017. We have systematically examined the empirical connections among emission, urbanization, income per capita, imports, exports, energy use, trade openness and energy intensity. The Johnson co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) causality methods are employed for the sake of analysis. Overall findings confirm the dynamic and U-shaped relationship between emission and urbanization, and carbon emission and income per capita. The empirical results of urbanization, inflation and financial development illustrate positive association with the energy intensity, whereas trade openness, labour force participation and carbon emission show a negative association with the dependent variable. Moreover, outcomes of causality analysis provide evidence of varied causality link among the variables across the models. The study provides the implications for the decision makers in Pakistan to choose new urbanization patterns that are less reliant on energy consumption.

Implications of Decreasing Farm Size on Urbanization: A Case Study of Punjab Pakistan

The rate of urbanization in Pakistan especially in Punjab is quite high. The reason behind this is the high population growth that is about 2.4 percent in the last decade. This causes a burden on the farm size and in rural areas people have no choice except to move in the urban areas for their livelihood. The main objective of this study was to identify the key influential factors that affect the decision to migrate. Study evaluated the impact of economic, social, demographic, natural and climatic factors on the welfare of the migrants and non-migrant’s households. For this purpose, an extensive survey from 504 respondents was carried out in four districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Due to the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable i.e. migrant and non-migrant, logistic regression was employed on the collected data using Stata. Results revealed that unemployment, educational and health facilities, family conflicts, small farm size for agricultural activities, and greater family size are the main influencing factors affecting migration decision from rural to urban areas. This creates the strong implications i.e. putting burden on the urban areas due to the high rate of urbanization. So, it is however recommended to stem down the rate of migration all necessary facilities should be provided in the rural areas and Agro-based must be set up near the rural areas providing employment opportunities for the rural dwellers.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan

Urbanization refers to the migration of rural people to urban centers in search of better jobs. Urbanization and growth go together; no country has ever reached middle-income status without a significant population shift into cities. Urbanization has strong association with unemployment, economic growth, poverty, infrastructure, crimes, health, socio-economic conditions and education. In 2050, most of the urban population of the world will be concentrated in Asia (52%) and in Africa (21%). A simple and modest model provided reasonable results. Increase in literacy is a decisive factor that has significant impact on increasing urban population. Per capita GDP growth also positively influences the urban population. Age-structure is too an important determinant of migration and urbanization. It is an open secret that generally young persons have gone abroad. Specification and diagnostics test supported the model which reveals appropriateness and statistical soundness of the model. Serious heed is paid to delimitation of cities to make them manageable and governable. Agriculture is provided sufficient resources to discourage migration to cities.

Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab, Pakistan: A multilevel analysis

This study estimates the prevalence and extent of vulnerability to poverty in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A multilevel model is used to analyze survey data of about 90,000 households distributed across 150 towns/tehsils. Empirical estimates show that the vulnerability rate is higher than the rate of poverty, and poverty-induced vulnerability is higher than risk-induced vulnerability. Moreover, idiosyncratic-vulnerability is higher than covariate-vulnerability. Unlike previous studies that find poverty to be a rural phenomenon, this research shows that poverty and vulnerability are equally high in urban areas. A high level of urban vulnerability adds urgency to anti-poverty interventions given a rapid urbanization in Pakistan.