Urbanized Municipalities Research Articles

Exploring Spatiotemporal Patterns of Cardiovascular Disease in Greece: Insights from the ATTICA Study (2002-2022)

The objective of this study was to investigate spatiotemporal variability of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence and identify spatial clusters on Attica region (Greece), over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The 10- and 20-year occurrence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease was obtained from the ATTICA study, which was conducted between 2002 and 2022. The sample used in this analysis included 1,935 (49,8% males) and 1,902 participants (49.5% males), respectively. CVD occurrence rate at the municipality level were mapped, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to identify statistically significant clusters and outliers in the Attica region. The mapping of CVD occurrence rates revealed an observable increase in most municipalities during the observation period. In addition, a statistically significant clustering of high CVD occurrence rates was found in the most urbanized municipalities of the study area over the period under study. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, focusing on urban populations, to effectively address this trend.

IDENTIFICATION OF MOBILITY STRATEGIES FOR SMALL AND URBANIZED BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES

Due to intense urbanization and inadequate planning, various mobility problems have emerged in small Brazilian municipalities. To reverse this scenario, it is necessary to adopt sustainable mobility policies. Thus, this article aims to identify mobility strategies for small and urbanized Brazilian municipalities. Firstly, based on the literature, twenty strategies were identified. Then, experts and managers evaluated these strategies to identify the most suitable ones for small municipalities. Next, the data was analyzed to measure the reliability of the responses, the correlation, and the ranking of the strategies. Finally, the most appropriate strategies were identified using Categorical Principal Component Analysis. The results indicated that the most relevant strategies to be implemented in small Brazilian municipalities are related to policy issues, promoting active transportation, and encouraging public transportation. The findings can improve public policies and transportation planning, with implications for quality of life and sustainable development in small Brazilian municipalities.

What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning

This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre.

Twenty-year incidence rates of cardiovascular disease in Greece: A geospatial analysis in the Attica study context, 2002-2022

Aim: The aim of this study was to explore the geographical disparities in CVD incidence across the Attica region, over a 20-year period. Material and Methods: The 10-year and the 20-year CVD incidence data were provided by the ATTICA study, which was conducted during 2002-2022 in 3042 individuals living in Attica region. After excluding those lacking complete locality information and those lost in the 10-year and the 20-year follow-up, data for 1935 and 1902 individuals respectively, were used for the current analysis. CVD incidence rates at municipality level were mapped and hot spot analysis was implemented to recognize statistically significant spatial clusters in Attica region. Results: Mapping CVD incidence rates revealed a notable rise during the 20 years in most municipalities. The rise in female-specific CVD incidence appeared primarily in suburban areas, while a significant rise in male-specific CVD incidence was noticed in urban areas. Statistically significant spatial clusters of high values were indicated in the most urbanized municipalities of the study area, whereas clusters of low values were noticed in the more distant rural municipalities, which maintained lower CVD incidence rates during the monitoring period. Conclusions: A spatial heterogeneity of the sex-specific 20-year CVD incidence rate was observed in the Attica region of Greece.

Do participants consider community initiatives as successful, and if so why?

Community-initiatives (CIs) - as residents' bottom-up initiated collective efforts to improve the livability of their everyday-world - increasingly attract scholarly attention. From an urban vitality perspective understanding CI-participants' evaluations of CI-success is crucial. We make two contributions to this topic: first by presenting new evidence on participants' evaluations of CI-success; second by providing a theoretically grounded, empirically validated explanation of perceived CI-success, combining agent-based and often-neglected structural factors.This article primarily uses survey-data from a CI-initiator-sample of 129 CIs from 22 municipalities in the Dutch province Overijssel (using snowball-sampling); but findings were validated by additional survey-results (from a province-wide probability-sample) of 179 CI-participants. We found that most initiators/participants consider CIs as successful, that the odds for CI-success were not different for privileged and underprivileged groups, and in more and less urbanized municipalities. Moreover, odds for CI-success were higher in larger groups and for CIs receiving municipal financial support.

Urban political overrepresentation and access to public funding for municipalities in the Netherlands

Advantageous positions for politically overrepresented groups and rural political discontent are widely debated in academia. However, the role urban political overrepresentation may have in benefiting urban citizens and as an explanation for rural political discontent has hitherto received little attention. This paper addresses urban overrepresentation within national politics and suggests how this, in turn, engenders favorable policies for extremely urbanized municipalities. The paper refers to the Dutch context to illustrate how urban political overrepresentation operates, the access that municipalities with different degrees of urbanization have to public funding, and how they profit from the region deals between 2017 and 2020. The most urbanized municipalities in the Netherlands are found to be politically overrepresented at the national level and have relatively good access to public funding. This is likely to produce benefits for these municipalities and their inhabitants. This paper discusses how these benefits may be an explanation for political discontent in other municipalities.

Население и расселение Калининградской области на начало 2023 года

The article focuses on the dynamics of the Kaliningrad region population in 1947—2023 and the dynamics components in 1990—2022 in comparison with the national average (based on the official statistics). The authors reveal some territorial features of the demographic pro­cesses, such as the development of settlement polarization and suburbanization, as well as the fundamental geodemographic differences between the near suburban zone of Kaliningrad and less urbanized eastern municipalities. It is proposed to use the concept of the Unified Settle­ment System in the eastern parts of the region to improve the spatial organization of settle­ment on the basis of a three-stage system of inter-settlement service. The authors noted strengthening role of Sovetsk and Chernyakhovsk in serving the cities and rural areas of the North and South-East of the region, respectively, developing rural-urban ties between the centers of municipalities with their rural settlements, and within municipal districts, which testifies to the strengthening support functions of the centers of the first level municipalities.

Residential exposure to livestock farms and lung function in adolescence – The PIAMA birth cohort study

BackgroundThere is a growing interest in the impact of air pollution from livestock farming on respiratory health. Studies in adults suggest adverse effects of livestock farm emissions on lung function, but so far, studies involving children and adolescents are lacking. ObjectivesTo study the association of residential proximity to livestock farms and modelled particulate matter ≤10 μm (PM10) from livestock farms with lung function in adolescence. MethodsWe performed a cross-sectional study among 715 participants of the Dutch prospective PIAMA (Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy) birth cohort study. Relationships of different indicators of residential livestock farming exposure (distance to farms, distance-weighted number of farms, cattle, pigs, poultry, horses and goats within 3 km; modelled atmospheric PM10 concentrations from livestock farms) with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) at age 16 were assessed by linear regression taking into account potential confounders. Associations were expressed per interquartile range increase in exposure. ResultsHigher exposure to livestock farming was consistently associated with a lower FEV1, but not with FVC among participants living in less urbanized municipalities (<1500 addresses/km2, N = 402). Shorter distances of homes to livestock farms were associated with a 1.4% (0.2%; 2.7%) lower FEV1. Larger numbers of farms within 3 km and higher concentrations of PM10 from livestock farming were associated with a 1.8% (0.8%, 2.9%) and 0.9% (0.4%,1.5%) lower FEV1, respectively. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that higher exposure to livestock farming is associated with a lower FEV1 in adolescents. Replication and more research on the etiologic agents involved in these associations and the underlying mechanisms is needed.

Diffusion of smoke-free policies at outdoor sports clubs in the Netherlands

Abstract Background Although outdoor smoke-free policies (SFPs) at sports clubs represent an important new area of tobacco control, the majority of sports clubs are not smoke-free. This study aims to assess diffusion patterns of outdoor SFPs at sports clubs in the Netherlands, which may inform national strategies aimed at making all outdoor sports clubs smoke-free. Methods Using a retrospective, registry-based design, an inventory was made of football, field hockey, tennis, and korfball clubs that became smoke-free between 2016-2020. We determined the type of sports, number of members, and proportion of youth members. The degree of urbanization and density of smoke-free sports clubs were measured at the municipality level. The association between sports clubs’ characteristics, degree of urbanization, and SFP adoption was analysed using multilevel regression analysis. Horizontal diffusion was tested by analysing the association between the density and annual incidence of smoke-free sports clubs. Results Since 2016, the number of sports clubs with an outdoor SFP increased from 0.3% to 26.4%. Field hockey [OR compared to football 6.00 95% CI 4.46-8.07] and korfball clubs [OR 6.65 95% CI 4.98-8.87] and clubs with many (youth) members [OR 8.75 95% CI 6.20-2.35] were more likely to be smoke-free. SFPs spread from the most urbanized to less urbanized municipalities, which could mostly be attributed to sports clubs’ characteristics. A higher density of smoke-free sports clubs within municipalities was associated with an increased incidence of new SFPs in the following year. Conclusions Outdoor SFPs at sports clubs in the Netherlands diffused across horizontal and hierarchical lines. National strategies for smoke-free sports should monitor clubs that are more likely to stay behind, such as football and tennis clubs, smaller clubs, and clubs in less urbanized areas.

Sustainable Human Development at the Municipal Level: A Data Envelopment Analysis Index

The development of indexes for human development and environmental sustainability issues are an emerging topic in the current literature. However, the literature has put less emphasis on municipal indexes, which is the focus of this research. In this paper, we considered municipal environmental management as the adoption of environmental activities and the development of infrastructural and technical capacities in municipalities. This article aims to create a sustainable human development index with municipal data from the state of São Paulo in Brazil. Using information from the Municipal Human Development Index (IDHm) and the GreenBlue Municipal Program (PMVA), we applied the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to connect human development and environmental sustainability in 645 Brazilian municipalities. Our findings show that regions with higher human development present better DEA scores on the Sustainable Human Development Index. In contrast, regions with a low or a middle level of human development do not present significant change considering both dimensions. Moreover, our findings reveal that PMVA certification has a different and statistically significant impact on the DEA score considering certified, qualified, or not qualified regions. We found similar results for urbanized and service-oriented municipalities. Our indicator is an essential and straightforward tool for regional policymakers, helping to allocate resources and to find human development and environmental sustainability benchmarks among developing regions.

Diffusion of smoke-free policies at outdoor sports clubs in the Netherlands

BackgroundAlthough outdoor smoke-free policies (SFPs) at sports clubs represent an important new area of tobacco control, the majority of sports clubs are not smoke free. This study aims to assess...

Ephemeral forest regeneration limits carbon sequestration potential in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Although deforestation remains widespread in the tropics, many places are now experiencing significant forest recovery (i.e., forest transition), offering an optimistic outlook for natural ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration. Naturally regenerated forests, however, may not persist, so a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of forest change in the tropics is critical to ensure the success of reforestation efforts and carbon sequestration targets. Here we use 35years of detailed land cover data to investigate forest trajectories in 3014municipalities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), a biodiversity and conservation hotspot. Although deforestation was evident in some regions, deforestation reversals, the typical forest transition trajectory, were the prevalent trend in the AF, accounting for 38% of municipalities. However, simultaneous reforestation reversals in the region (13% of municipalities) suggest that these short-term increases in native forest cover do not necessarily translate into persistent trends. In the absence of reversals in reforestation, forests in the region could have sequestered 1.75PgC, over three times the actual estimated carbon sequestration (0.52PgC). We also showed that failure to distinguish native and planted forests would have masked native forest cover loss in the region and overestimated reforestation by 3.2 Mha and carbon sequestration from natural forest regeneration by 0.37PgC. Deforestation reversals were prevalent in urbanized municipalities with limited forest cover and high agricultural productivity, highlighting the importance of favorable socioeconomic conditions in promoting reforestation. Successful forest restoration efforts will require development and enforcement of environmental policies that promote forest regeneration and ensure the permanence of regrowing forests. This is crucial not only for the fate and conservation of the AF, but also for other tropical nations to achieve their restoration and carbon sequestration commitments.

Short-term effects of heat and cold in urban, sub-urban and rural municipalities of Italy - a national approach.

Background. The short-term effects of heat and cold on mortality are well known, however most evidence comes from studies conducted in urban areas and less is known on the effects in rural and suburban areas. The aim is to estimate the association between temperature and all-cause mortality at national level in Italy.Methods. Daily all-cause mortality for the 8,092 municipalities of Italy were collected for the period 2006 to 2015. A satellite-based spatiotemporal model was developed to estimate daily mean temperature at 1x1km resolution. Conditional Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the risk in mortality for variations (increase/decrease) in temperature (lag0-10) at province level. A DLNM approach was used to account for the non-linear association. Results were then pooled with a random-effects meta-analysis. Associations were estimated for increases (75-99th percentile) and for decreases (25th to the 1st percentile) in mean temperature and by age, sex and level of urbanization of the municipalities. Results. In the study period 6,552,257 deaths occurred in Italy (40% are aged 85+, 55% occur in non-urban municipalities). The risk in mortality for temperature increases was of 1.27 (IC95%: 1.23, 1.31) and of 1.19 (IC95%: 1.23-1.31) for temperature decreases. Some heterogeneity in the effects of heat and cold were observed across Italy; with strongest effects of heat in central-southern regions and no clear geographical pattern for cold effects. In summer, the elderly and women were most at risk. Effects estimates were similar in rural and urbanized municipalities for both heat and cold in Italy. Conclusions. The study confirms a significant risk of extreme temperatures (heat and cold) on all-cause mortality at national level and provides evidence of effects in both urban, sub-urban and rural municipalities.

Modernization-induced socio-economic changes and their effect over the spatial distribution of recreational hunting and volunteering with animals

ABSTRACT Socioeconomic changes characterizing the last 70 years changed human-wildlife relationships and diminished activities such as recreational hunting. However, little research has tested whether the same changes also increased other behaviors, such as volunteering for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that focus on protecting animals. We modeled the effects of urbanization, income, and higher education over the incidence of recreational hunters and people who volunteer with animals in Tuscany (Central Italy). Urbanized areas, characterized by more educated residents, have fewer hunters and more people volunteering than rural municipalities. Hunting participation over the last 15 years also declined more in urbanized municipalities than in rural ones. Our findings indicate that the increased number of people volunteering in animal welfare NGOs might be related to a shift in human-wildlife interactions similar to North America. Moreover, our approach may be used to identify hotspots of social conflicts with wildlife.

Evaluación del transporte público en el Estado de México. El caso del Mexibus

El desarrollo del capitalismo no se explica sin la evolución del transporte, y viceversa. Sin embargo, la gobernanza en países subdesarrollados, como México, se enfrenta a una crisis económica y urbana permanente, que limita los alcances de las políticas públicas del transporte urbano. Durante la última década, el origen y evolución del sistema Mexibús, en el Estado de México, responde a la creciente necesidad de movilidad que diariamente enfrentan más de 10 millones de mexiquenses de los municipios conurbados de la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (ZMCM). A casi una década de la puesta en operación de la primera línea del sistema de transporte público (Bus Rapid Transit, por sus siglas en inglés), resulta conveniente evaluar el impacto económico y social que ha tenido entre los habitantes del Valle de México.

Seeking commonalities of community resilience to natural hazards: A cluster analysis approach

ABSTRACT The aim of the study on which the article is based was to identify groups of communities with similar resilience profiles, using Norwegian municipalities as a case. The authors used a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators as measures of municipalities’ resilience and performed a cluster analysis to divide the municipalities into groups with similar multivariate resilience signatures. The results revealed six groups of municipalities that, apart from their unique combinations of indicator scores, featured certain spatial patterns, such as an “urban cluster” with urbanized municipalities and a “suburban cluster” with municipalities concentrated around major cities. The authors conclude that municipalities in each of the groups shared aspects that made them either more or less resilient to natural hazards, which could make them potential targets for shared interventions. Additionally, the authors conclude that clustering can be used to identify municipalities with similar resilience features and that could benefit from networking and sharing operational planning as a way to improve their respective communities' resilience to natural hazards.

The impact of social capital, land use, air pollution and noise on individual morbidity in Dutch neighbourhoods

BackgroundBoth social and physical neighbourhood factors may affect residents' health, but few studies have considered the combination of several exposures in relation to individual health status. AimTo assess a range of different potentially relevant physical and social environmental characteristics in a sample of small neighbourhoods in the Netherlands, to study their mutual correlations and to explore associations with morbidity of residents using routinely collected general practitioners' (GPs') data. MethodsFor 135 neighbourhoods in 43 Dutch municipalities, we could assess area-level social cohesion and collective efficacy using external questionnaire data, urbanisation, amount of greenspace and water areas, land use diversity, air pollution (particulate matter (PM) with a diameter <10 μm (PM10), PM <2.5 μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and noise (from road traffic and from railways). Health data of the year 2013 from GPs were available for 4450 residents living in these 135 neighbourhoods, that were representative for the entire country. Morbidity of 10 relevant physical or mental health groupings was considered. Individual-level socio-economic information was obtained from Statistics Netherlands. Associations between neighbourhood exposures and individual morbidity were quantified using multilevel mixed effects logistic regression analyses, adjusted for sex, age (continuous), household income and socio-economic status (individual level) and municipality and neighbourhood (group level). ResultsMost physical exposures were strongly correlated with degree of urbanisation. Social cohesion and collective efficacy tended to be higher in less urbanised municipalities. Degree of urbanisation was associated with higher morbidity of all disease groupings. A higher social cohesion at the municipal level coincided with a lower prevalence of depression, migraine/severe headache and Medically Unexplained Physical Symptoms (MUPS). An increase in both natural and agricultural greenspace in the neighbourhood was weakly associated with less morbidity for all conditions. A high land use diversity was consistently associated with lower morbidities, in particular among non-occupationally active individuals. ConclusionA high diversity in land use of neighbourhoods may be beneficial for physical and mental health of the inhabitants. If confirmed, this may be incorporated into urban planning, in particular regarding the diversity of greenspace.

Cancer mortality rates and spillover effects among different areas: A case study in Campania (southern Italy)

The present study analyses the spatial distribution of cancer mortality rates in Campania (an Italian region with the highest population density), in which residents in several areas are exposed to major environmental health hazards. The paper has the methodological aims of verifying the existence, or otherwise, of a spatial correlation between mortality from different types of cancer and the occurrence of some specific area characteristics, using both Bayesian statistics and spatial econometrics. We show that the use of the Spatial Empirical Bayes Smoothed Rate, instead of the more commonly used Raw Rate, allows a more comprehensive analysis of the mortality rate, highlighting the existence of different cluster sizes throughout the region, according to the type of cancer mortality rate analysed. By using a Spatial Durbin model we verify that cancer mortality rates are related to the environmental characteristics of specific areas with spatial spillover effects. Our results validate the hypothesis that living along the coast by Mt Vesuvius and, to a lesser extent, along the Domitio-Flegreo coast NW of Naples and in more urbanised municipalities, increases the risk of dying of cancer. By contrast, living in less urbanised municipalities, with the presence of natural and historical attractions, has a positive effect on the residents’ health, reducing their risk of disease. In both cases significant spillover effects (negative and positive) are found in municipalities close to the areas in question. Despite a number of reasonable limitations, our findings may provide useful information support for policy makers to foster knowledge, awareness and informed participation of citizens.

Mortality from assault in young men in Brazil, 2010-2014: an ecological study

The aim was to analyze the association between risk of death from assault in young males and socio-demographic characteristics in Brazilian municipalities. In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the 1,651 municipalities of Brazil with more than 20,000 inhabitants. Data were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and indicators were obtained from the 2010 Population Census and Human Development Atlas. Mortality rate ratios were estimated by a negative binomial regression model. From 2010 to 2014, a total of 127,137 deaths from assault were reported in young males 15 to 29 years of age. Corrected mortality rate was 133.3/100 thousand inhabitants for the set of municipalities (median 71.5/100 thousand inhabitants). The rate increased with the municipalities' population size. In the adjusted model, higher rates ratios were observed in the more urbanized municipalities (1.95; 95%CI: 1.70-2.23), in intermediate categories of income inequality (1.10; 95%CI: 1.01-1.20) and poverty rate (1.69; 95%CI: 1.51-1.89), with lower proportion of youth attending Secondary School (2.05; 95%CI: 1.83-2.30), with higher proportion of unemployed youth 18 to 24 years of age (1.27; 95%CI: 1.16-1.40), and with more women than men (1.28; 95%CI: 1.05-1.58). Mortality from assault was high in young Brazilian men, especially in larger and more urbanized municipalities and those with a higher proportion of youth looking for work and not attending secondary school. The results show the relevance of social policies for dealing with violence against youth.

History Repeating! Spatial Dynamics in Dutch Start‐Up Rates (1996–2013)

AbstractThe number of start‐ups has skyrocketed in the Netherlands in the past ten years. Has this growth been accompanied by a shift in the spatial patterns of start‐ups? This Windows on the Netherlands puts this question to the test and maps the dynamics in the spatial patterns of start‐ups for the period 1996–2013. This is done at the disaggregated spatial level of the municipality. Even though we observe a slight shift of entrepreneurship to the east of the country, the overall spatial patterns in start‐up intensity are highly stable: start‐up rates are highest in the most urbanised municipalities. As the small spatial scale of analysis potentially allows for much variability, the found stability in the spatial patterns lends additional empirical support to the idea that patterns in start‐up rates are highly persistent.