Fire accidents could result in severe casualties in an urban traffic tunnel due to the concentration of users and narrow space. However, fire casualties could not be easily predicted due to the complicated evacuation environment and uncertainty in personnel distribution. This paper proposes a probabilistic model to predict the fire casualties in an urban traffic tunnel with only natural ventilation, considering the effects of the thermal and carbon monoxide distribution, in addition to the arrangement of various vehicles. First, the general framework of the probabilistic model was put forward and the methods to analyze the fire scenario, evacuation process, casualty criteria, and probability curve were introduced in details. Then, a case study based on a three-lane traffic tunnel was conducted, and the effects of maximum heat release rate on probabilistic curve of fire casualties were discussed. The results showed that the fire casualty increased with the maximum heat release rate. Besides this, when the distance between fire source and evacuation exit was reduced to 150 m, the impact of maximum heat release rate would decrease significantly. This study made notable contributions toward evaluating the personnel loss in tunnel fire and laid a foundation for assessing and improving the resilience of tunnel.
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