Urban Traffic Flow Prediction Research Articles

ST-D3DDARN: Urban traffic flow prediction based on spatio-temporal decoupled 3D DenseNet with attention ResNet.

Urban traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which can enhance traffic efficiency and ensure public safety. However, predicting urban traffic flow faces numerous challenges, such as intricate temporal dependencies, spatial correlations, and the influence of external factors. Existing research methods cannot fully capture the complex spatio-temporal dependence of traffic flow. Inspired by video analysis in computer vision, we represent traffic flow as traffic frames and propose an end-to-end urban traffic flow prediction model named Spatio-temporal Decoupled 3D DenseNet with Attention ResNet (ST-D3DDARN). Specifically, this model extracts multi-source traffic flow features through closeness, period, trend, and external factor branches. Subsequently, it dynamically establishes global spatio-temporal correlations by integrating spatial self-attention and coordinate attention in a residual network, accurately predicting the inflow and outflow of traffic throughout the city. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the ST-D3DDARN model, experiments are carried out on two publicly available real-world datasets. The results indicate that ST-D3DDARN outperforms existing models in terms of single-step prediction, multi-step prediction, and efficiency.

Traffic Prediction with Self-Supervised Learning: A Heterogeneity-Aware Model for Urban Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Self-Supervised Learning

Accurate traffic prediction is pivotal when constructing intelligent cities to enhance urban mobility and to efficiently manage traffic flows. Traditional deep learning-based traffic prediction models primarily focus on capturing spatial and temporal dependencies, thus overlooking the existence of spatial and temporal heterogeneities. Heterogeneity is a crucial inherent characteristic of traffic data for the practical applications of traffic prediction. Spatial heterogeneities refer to the differences in traffic patterns across different regions, e.g., variations in traffic flow between office and commercial areas. Temporal heterogeneities refer to the changes in traffic patterns across different time steps, e.g., from morning to evening. Although existing models attempt to capture heterogeneities through predefined handcrafted features, multiple sets of parameters, and the fusion of spatial–temporal graphs, there are still some limitations. We propose a self-supervised learning-based traffic prediction framework called Traffic Prediction with Self-Supervised Learning (TPSSL) to address this issue. This framework leverages a spatial–temporal encoder for the prediction task and introduces adaptive data masking to enhance the robustness of the model against noise disturbances. Moreover, we introduce two auxiliary self-supervised learning paradigms to capture spatial heterogeneities and temporal heterogeneities, which also enrich the embeddings of the primary prediction task. We conduct experiments on four widely used traffic flow datasets, and the results demonstrate that TPSSL achieves state-of-the-art performance in traffic prediction tasks.

A hybrid deep learning model for urban expressway lane-level mixed traffic flow prediction

Precise real-time traffic flow prediction is crucial for route guidance and traffic fine control. With the development of autonomous driving, the mixed traffic flow state composed of Connected Automated Vehicles (CAVs) and Human-driven Vehicles (HVs) provides new insight into traffic flow prediction. In this paper, we innovatively consider the interaction between heterogeneous traffic flow as well as the mutual effect of traffic flow on different lanes and develop a hybrid model based on deep learning for urban expressway lane-level mixed traffic flow prediction, including three modules. First, the feature selection module is applied to screen the features with a high spatio-temporal correlation to the prediction object and construct the input matrix. Then, it is input to the feature attention module to quantify the importance of the input features on the prediction object, thereby assigning attention weights. Finally, the spatio-temporal information fusion module is adopted to capture the global spatio-temporal dynamics of traffic flow at horizontal and vertical spatial scales, as well as learn the complex coupling characteristics of heterogeneous traffic flow, thus obtaining predictions. An urban expressway mixed traffic flow simulation environment is built to collect experimental datasets for prediction accuracy evaluation. The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms the benchmarks in single-step and multi-step mixed traffic flow predictions on each lane. Furthermore, the proposed model shows the best performance and strong robustness under different penetration rates of connected automated vehicles.

Multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer for long-term urban traffic flow prediction

Long-term urban traffic flow prediction is an important task in the field of intelligent transportation, as it can help optimize traffic management and improve travel efficiency. To improve prediction accuracy, a crucial issue is how to model spatiotemporal dependency in urban traffic data. In recent years, many studies have adopted spatiotemporal neural networks to extract key information from traffic data. However, most models ignore the semantic spatial similarity between long-distance areas when mining spatial dependency. They also ignore the impact of predicted time steps on the next unpredicted time step for making long-term predictions. Moreover, these models lack a comprehensive data embedding process to represent complex spatiotemporal dependency. This paper proposes a multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer (MSPSTT) model to perform accurate long-term traffic flow prediction in cities. MSPSTT adopts an encoder-decoder structure and incorporates temporal, periodic, and spatial features to fully embed urban traffic data to address these issues. The model consists of a spatiotemporal encoder and a spatiotemporal decoder, which rely on temporal, geospatial, and semantic space multi-head attention modules to dynamically extract temporal, geospatial, and semantic characteristics. The spatiotemporal decoder combines the context information provided by the encoder, integrates the predicted time step information, and is iteratively updated to learn the correlation between different time steps in the broader time range to improve the model's accuracy for long-term prediction. Experiments on four public transportation datasets demonstrate that MSPSTT outperforms the existing models by up to 9.5% on three common metrics.

Urban Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Bayesian Deep Learning Considering Optimal Aggregation Time Interval

Predicting short-term urban traffic flow is a fundamental and cost-effective strategy in traffic signal control systems. However, due to the interrupted, periodic, and stochastic characteristics of urban traffic flow influenced by signal control, there are still unresolved issues related to the selection of the optimal aggregation time interval and the quantifiable uncertainties in prediction. To tackle these challenges, this research introduces a method for predicting urban interrupted traffic flow, which is based on Bayesian deep learning and considers the optimal aggregation time interval. Specifically, this method utilizes the cross-validation mean square error (CVMSE) method to obtain the optimal aggregation time interval and to establish the relationship between the optimal aggregation time interval and the signal cycle. A Bayesian LSTM-CNN prediction model, which extends the LSTM-CNN model under the Bayesian framework to a probabilistic model to better capture the stochasticity and variation in the data, is proposed. Experimental results derived from real-world data demonstrate gathering traffic flow data based on the optimal aggregation time interval significantly enhances the prediction accuracy of the urban interrupted traffic flow model. The optimal aggregation time interval for urban interrupted traffic flow data corresponds to a multiple of the traffic signal control cycle. Comparative experiments indicate that the Bayesian LSTM-CNN prediction model outperforms the state-of-the-art prediction models.

Gated Fusion Adaptive Graph Neural Network for Urban Road Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate prediction of traffic flow plays an important role in maintaining traffic order and traffic safety, which is a key task in the application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, the urban road network has complex dynamic spatial correlation and nonlinear temporal correlation, and achieving accurate traffic flow prediction is a highly challenging task. Traditional methods use sensors deployed on roads to construct the spatial structure of the road network and capture spatial information by graph convolution. However, they ignore that the spatial correlation between nodes is dynamically changing, and using a fixed adjacency matrix cannot reflect the real road spatial structure. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a new spatial-temporal deep learning model: gated fusion adaptive graph neural network (GFAGNN). GFAGNN first extracts long-term dependencies on raw data through stacking expansion causal convolution, Then the spatial features of the dynamics are learned by adaptive graph attention network and adaptive graph convolutional network respectively, Finally the fused information is passed through a lightweight channel attention to extract temporal features. The experimental results on two public data sets show that our model can effectively capture the spatiotemporal correlation in traffic flow prediction. Compared with GWNET-conv model on METR-LA dataset, the three indexes in the 60-minute task prediction improved by 2.27%,2.06% and 2.13%, respectively.

Quantitative analysis and model prediction of urban traffic flow optimization by geographic information technology

Abstract With the development of intelligent transportation, urban traffic flow prediction faces more complex traffic situations and higher accuracy requirements. In this paper, we collected multi-day traffic data from local cities and used a k-means clustering algorithm to analyze the data by clustering. A BP neural network prediction algorithm combined with k-means clustering analysis is designed to construct an “hour-day-week” urban traffic flow prediction model. The model is trained and applied to real-time urban traffic flow prediction to further analyze the performance effect of this model. The training time of this model is the shortest, which is about 67 minutes, and the MAE value is 3.02. The training speed is ahead of the longest training time in model 2, which is about 163 minutes, and the error is reduced by 8.04 compared with that of the highest prediction error in model 1. With different levels of noise added, the R², ACC, and RMSE values of the model in this paper are maintained at about 0.45, 0.63, and 0.8, respectively, indicating that different levels of noise have a significant effect on the performance of this model. This indicates that different degrees of noise have little effect on the performance of the model in this paper. In addition, the prediction effect is better after clustering analysis. The MAPE value of this paper’s model is the lowest, only 2.64%, which is 3.65%-7.52% lower than the other three control models. The experimental results above fully demonstrate the superior performance of this paper’s model, which suggests that this paper’s model is more effective in predicting urban traffic flow.

Retracted: Urban Traffic Flow Prediction with Deep Neural Network

Retracted: Urban Traffic Flow Prediction with Deep Neural Network

RL-GCN: Traffic flow prediction based on graph convolution and reinforcement learning for smart cities

The traffic flow problem has become essential in urban planning and management in today’s increasingly urbanized world. Traditional traffic flow prediction models cannot fully consider urban traffic networks’ complex and dynamic characteristics. To this end, this paper proposes a traffic flow prediction method for smart cities (RL-GCN) based on graph convolution, LSTM network and reinforcement learning, aiming to solve the problem of urban traffic flow prediction. Firstly, we use the graph convolutional neural network to process the urban traffic network data features, then use the LSTM network model to learn the temporal information, and then combine the reinforcement learning algorithm to develop the optimal traffic control strategy based on which the future traffic flow is predicted. Our experiments on several datasets show that the model developed in this paper has outstanding performance for urban traffic flow prediction. Compared with the traditional traffic flow prediction methods, the method in this paper has significantly improved prediction accuracy. Our research can provide valuable references and inspiration in urban planning and traffic management.

FedSTN: Graph Representation Driven Federated Learning for Edge Computing Enabled Urban Traffic Flow Prediction

Predicting traffic flow plays an important role in reducing traffic congestion and improving transportation efficiency for smart cities. Traffic Flow Prediction (TFP) in the smart city requires efficient models, highly reliable networks, and data privacy. As traffic data, traffic trajectory can be transformed into a graph representation, so as to mine the spatio-temporal information of the graph for TFP. However, most existing work adopt a central training mode where the privacy problem brought by the distributed traffic data is not considered. In this paper, we propose a Federated Deep Learning based on the Spatial-Temporal Long and Short-Term Networks (FedSTN) algorithm to predict traffic flow by utilizing observed historical traffic data. In FedSTN, each local TFP model deployed in an edge computing server includes three main components, namely Recurrent Long-term Capture Network (RLCN) module, Attentive Mechanism Federated Network (AMFN) module, and Semantic Capture Network (SCN) module. RLCN can capture the long-term spatial-temporal information in each area. AMFN shares short-term spatio-temporal hidden information when it trains its local TFP model by the additive homomorphic encryption approach based on Vertical Federated Learning (VFL). We employ SCN to capture semantic features such as irregular non-Euclidean connections and Point of Interest (POI). Compared with existing baselines, several simulations are conducted on practical data sets and the results prove the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Research on Big Data-Driven Urban Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Deep Learning

This paper introduces an innovative approach for the urban traffic flow prediction (TFP) that utilizes big data and deep learning (D-L) to improve accuracy, reducing the incidence of large errors commonplace in traditional methods. By implementing this method, sustainable urban developments are able to be achieved more effectively in the future. First, an Attention-CNN-GRU-ResNet (ACGR) TFP model is built with the D-L network by gridding the urban traffic flow (TF) into a three-dimensional S-T tensor sequence. An attention-based GRU is then introduced to combine spatial and channel attention in the traditional GRU, and the time dependence and spatio-temporal (S-T) heterogeneity of TF in each subset are effectively extracted. Finally, a ResNet module is introduced to capture the S-T dependency, which helps avoid the deep network degradation caused by excessive layers. Results show the proposed method generates the minimum value in RMSE, MAE, and MAPE with 18.32, 10.66, and 5.34, respectively. This research provides a new idea to alleviate data sparsity and consider the difference of input features and offers a novel approach to solve the S-T learning tasks associated with modeling.

Lane-Level Heterogeneous Traffic Flow Prediction: A Spatiotemporal Attention-Based Encoder–Decoder Model

Urban road traffic flow prediction is the key basis for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Lane-level heterogeneous traffic flow prediction will become a new and important challenge in the future development of intelligent transportation. In this study, a spatiotemporal attention-based encoder-decoder model is proposed to solve the lane-level heterogeneous traffic flow prediction problem. Specifically, the traffic flows of different locations and different types of vehicles are all regarded as traffic flows running in independent spaces. A spatial attention layer is added to the encoder to capture the spatial characteristics of traffic flows, and a temporal attention layer is added to the decoder to analyze the temporal correlation of each time interval. Finally, we validate the model by using real traffic monitoring data in the Shunyi District, Beijing, China, and prove the superior performance of the model. Meanwhile, the output of attention weights can deepen the further interpretation of the spatiotemporal correlation of heterogeneous traffic flows.

Urban Road Traffic Flow Prediction with Attention-Based Convolutional Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks

Accurate traffic prediction is critical for industry practitioners and researchers in intervening and dredging future traffic in advance to avoid traffic congestion. Considering that most prediction models fail to effectively capture the complex nonlinearity of traffic data and thus cannot obtain satisfactory prediction results, we propose a novel deep-learning architecture for traffic flow prediction, called AC-BLSTM (attention-based convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory). The proposed model captures traffic information through multilayer network architectures composed of convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory (conv-BiLSTM) network and attention mechanism. The spatiotemporal features of traffic flow are extracted by convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network. Then attention mechanism combines the outputs of CNN and BiLSTM to assign corresponding weights to the features extracted at different times. In addition, we employ a parallel sub-module structure to model three temporal properties of traffic flow, that is, weekly, daily, and recent dependencies. Finally, the results of these three parts are fused to predict the traffic flow values through the fully connected (FC) layers. Experiment results using a real-world urban road traffic dataset demonstrate that compared with other competing models, the proposed model has better prediction performance.

Modeling multi-regional temporal correlation with gated recurrent unit and multiple linear regression for urban traffic flow prediction

Urban traffic flow prediction has received much attention in the past few years, especially after the availability of huge traffic data. In addition, the efficacy of some existing traffic flow techniques heavily depends on some influential external factors (like weather, geographical information, point-of-interests (POIs), or road information). However, exploitable data containing such auxiliary information are extremely limited. One primary reason is that some rising cities lack the resources necessary for collecting such data. Therefore, it is difficult to pick an effective method that can accurately predict the traffic state when the data is limited. Due to that, this paper proposes a framework for achieving accurate predictions based on four data characteristics and the temporal correlation of neighbors without using additional influential factors. Specifically, we first propose a novel Multi-Region Correlation (MRC) method to make regions cooperate and share their traffic flow and patterns. Then, a deep recurrent network is used to capture the neighbors’ temporal correlation by integrating their traffic history that flow among regions and their neighbors. When analyzing the traffic data history, we model four data characteristics (seasonality, trend, residual, and cyclic). And lastly, we employ a Multiple Linear Regression Unit (MLRU) to predict the future traffic directly from the neighbors’ traffic. We conducted extensive experiments on two real-world datasets collected from two major cities in China, Chengdu and Xi’an. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can achieve superior performance compared to many existing models in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

GLSNN Network: A Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Urban Traffic Flow.

Traffic flow prediction is a key issue in intelligent transportation systems. The growing trend in data disclosure has created more potential sources for the input for predictive models, posing new challenges to the prediction of traffic flow in the era of big data. In this study, the prediction of urban traffic flow was regarded as a spatiotemporal prediction problem, focusing on the traffic speed. A Graph LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) Spatiotemporal Neural Network (GLSNN) model was constructed to perform a multi-scale spatiotemporal fusion prediction based on the multi-source input data. The GLSNN model consists of three parts: MS-LSTM, LZ-GCN, and LSTM-GRU. We used the MS-LSTM module to scale the traffic timing data, and then used the LZ-GCN network and the LSTM-GRU network to capture both the time and space dependencies. The model was tested on a real traffic dataset, and the experiment results verified the superior performance of the GLSNN model on both a high-precision and multi-scale prediction of urban traffic flow.

Urban traffic flow prediction: a dynamic temporal graph network considering missing values

Accurate traffic flow prediction on the urban road network is an indispensable function of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), which is of great significance for urban traffic planning. However, the current traffic flow prediction methods still face many challenges, such as missing values and dynamic spatial relationships in traffic flow. In this study, a dynamic temporal graph neural network considering missing values (D-TGNM) is proposed for traffic flow prediction. First, inspired by the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), we extend the classic BERT model, called Traffic BERT, to learn the dynamic spatial associations on the road structure. Second, we propose a temporal graph neural network considering missing values (TGNM) to mine traffic flow patterns in missing data scenarios for traffic flow prediction. Finally, the proposed D-TGNM model can be obtained by integrating the dynamic spatial associations learned by Traffic BERT into the TGNM model. To train the D-TGNM model, we design a novel loss function, which considers the missing values problem and prediction problem in traffic flow, to optimize the proposed model. The proposed model was validated on an actual traffic dataset collected in Wuhan, China. Experimental results showed that D-TGNM achieved good prediction results under four missing data scenarios (15% random missing, 15% block missing, 30% random missing, and 30% block missing), and outperformed ten existing state-of-the-art baselines.

Urban road traffic flow prediction: A graph convolutional network embedded with wavelet decomposition and attention mechanism

Urban road traffic flow prediction is the key basis for the development of Intelligent Transportation System. The complex urban structure leads to irregular shape and layout of the road network, which poses a challenge to capture the spatio-temporal correlation of traffic flow at different nodes in the region. In this study, a graph convolutional network model framework embedded with wavelet decomposition and attention mechanism (WDA-GCN) is proposed to predict the traffic flow of each traffic monitor at the regional level by exploring the spatio-temporal correlation among traffic monitors. Specifically, the spatial correlation between different monitors is encoded into two graphs by Graph Convolutional Network (GCN): geographical neighbor graph and functional similarity graph. The Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) is used to learn the spatial features extracted by GCN, and the attention mechanism is added to improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, the time series data and spatio-temporal correlation of traffic flow are input into the encoder–decoder based on GRU to realize regional traffic flow prediction. The model is validated and compared with the real traffic monitor data in Daxing District of Beijing, China, and the results show that the prediction accuracy of WDA-GCN model can reach 81.03% after embedding wavelet decomposition and attention mechanism, which is better than the traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods.

Hybrid graph convolution neural network and branch-and-bound optimization for traffic flow forecasting

In this study, we combine graph optimization and prediction in a single pipeline to investigate an innovative convolutional graph-based neural network for urban traffic flow prediction in an edge IoT environment. Pre-processing of the linked graph is first performed to remove noise from the set of original road networks of urban traffic data. Outlier detection strategy is used to efficiently explore the road network and remove irrelevant patterns and noise. The resulting graph is then implemented to train an extended graph convolutional neural network to estimate the traffic flow in the city. To accurately tune the hyperparameter values of the proposed framework, a new optimization technique is developed based on branch and bound. For comparison, an intensive evaluation is conducted with multiple datasets and baseline methods. The results show that the proposed framework outperforms the baseline solutions, especially when the number of nodes in the graph is large.

GMM Clustering Based on WOA Optimization and Space-Time Coupled Urban Rail Traffic Flow Prediction by CEEMD-SE-BiGRU-AM

Accurately predicting the short-term passenger flow of urban subways is very important for urban subway stations to formulate passenger flow organization and evacuation plans effectively and rationally plan passenger travel routes. This paper establishes a novel framework to predict the hourly inbound and outbound passenger flow of subway stations based on WOA-GMM station classifiers, CEEMD-SE noise reduction, and BiGRU optimized by attention. Firstly, this paper classifies subway stations using the improved Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) to realize the feature extraction of different types of subway stations. Secondly, this paper uses the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) to decompose the noise reduction of each station’s hourly inbound and outbound passenger flow. It combines the empirical modal components by calculating the sample entropy (SE), which makes the time series stable and reduces the time cost of forecasting. Finally, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model improved by attention mechanism (AM) is established for each station’s inbound and outbound passenger flow. The prediction model established in this paper is verified by subway passenger flow data in Shanghai, China, within 24 days. Finally, it is concluded that the model can predict the passenger flow of subway stations. Compared with the traditional Backpropagation Neural Network (BP), the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the normal BiGRU model, the model proposed in this paper has an average reduction of 65.90%, 64.54%, and 49.06% in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in the prediction of the hourly inbound and outbound passenger flow of each type of station, respectively.

Spatial-temporal network for traffic forecasting based on prior knowledge and data-driven

Urban traffic flow prediction is a critical problem in the intelligent transportation system, and it’s very challenging due to the complicated spatial-temporal dependency and essential uncertainty brought about by the complex road network and dynamic traffic conditions. However, existing methods either rely too much on prior knowledge or the data itself when modeling spatial-temporal dependency and few researchers consider them in combination. In this paper, a new spatial-temporal network for traffic flow prediction, which can comprehensively capture the complex spatial and temporal dependency based on prior knowledge and data-driven, is proposed. In particular, in the perspective of local and global spatial dependency in road networks, we construct a dynamic weighted graph by finding the spatial and semantic neighborhoods of road nodes based on road networks and the similarities between traffic data on different roads. Besides, the temporal trend module and implicit temporal dependency module are combined to capture the temporal transitivity of traffic flow and implicit dependencies between time point pairs. The experiment results of our proposed model outperform the state-of-the-art baselines.