Urban Shrinkage Research Articles

Impact of Administrative Division Adjustments on Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from Chinese Counties

Impact of Administrative Division Adjustments on Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from Chinese Counties

Are different TOD circles oriented towards sustainability amidst urban shrinkage? Evidence from urban areas to suburbs in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is a prominent urban development approach aimed at maximizing the number of residential, commercial, and walkable spaces within the catchment area of public transportation. Despite its widespread discussion, the definition of the TOD catchment area remains ambiguous. This study expands the research scope of TOD catchment areas by introducing the concept of three TOD circles and examines their relevance within the context of urban shrinkage in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area over time. Focusing on the Den-en-toshi Line, which spans Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture, as a case study, we developed a sustainable TOD assessment model based on the node-place-ecology (NPE) framework. This model was used to analyze the dynamic changes in different TOD circles from 2011 to 2019. The results indicate a positive sustainable development trend in the first and second circles, while the third circle shows a slight decline. Moreover, a comparison between urban and suburban areas further supports the notion that the monopolization trend of core stations in Tokyo is intensifying. We believe that the model framework developed in this study has great adaptability and can be widely applied globally to help researchers and urban planners conduct more accurate sustainability assessments of TOD stations.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Coupling Relationship Between Urban Infrastructure and Land Utilization in a Shrinking City: A Case Study of Hegang, Northeast China

Globally, urbanization is accelerating, with China witnessing a significant 40% rise in urbanization rate over the past 4 decades. However, the dynamic changes in the spatial coupling between infrastructure and utilization intensity during the early, middle, and late stages of urbanization are not clear. The trajectory of development and coupling within the urbanization process is crucial for understanding issues such as urban over-saturation and urban shrinkage. Using Hegang in Northeastern China as an example, we utilized high-resolution remote sensing data, examined the construction intensity of urban land use, analyzed the degree of coupling with utilization efficiency, and clarified the dynamic evolution of the binary relationship system between development and coupling. Results show that Hegang’s construction intensity has seen a continuous rise from 1992 to 2000, with a 200.06% increase over 28 years, while its coupling with utilization efficiency has experienced a significant drop in the 21st century, suggesting a persistent decline in the utilization of buildings and a notable urban shrinkage phenomenon. Considering development status and coupling degree, we delineate a characteristic urbanization state curve for Hegang, reflecting its progression through stages of “Underdeveloped, Highly coupled,” to “Underdeveloped, Weakly coupled”, and finally to “Highly developed, Weakly coupled”, offering insights into its urban development path. This research not only establishes a foundational data groundwork for future land-use planning in Hegang but also presents a replicable template for urbanization path analysis in other cities, contributing to a broader understanding of urban development dynamics.

Does urban shrinkage impact energy efficiency?: Evidence from Chinese counties

Some cities in China are facing challenges due to population loss while also attempting to address energy conservation and emissions reduction. Although urban shrinkage can relieve pressure from energy consumption demands, such as water, electricity and gas, does it improve urban energy efficiency? This study attempts to answer this question. Based on Point of Interest (POI) big data and Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) raster data, this study identifies urban shrinkage from the coupling perspective of administrative and economic boundaries. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on energy efficiency. The results suggest that Chinese counties’ overall energy efficiency is experiencing a four-stage "decline-rise-decline-rise" trend, and the urban shrinkage of Chinese counties exists in three major areas: the Northeast, the Southwest, and the Centre. Compared to non-shrinking cities, urban shrinkage has a significant negative impact on improving energy efficiency. This impact exhibits significant heterogeneity. Specifically, compared with mature resource cities and cities in Western China, regenerative cities, non-resource cities and cities in Central China have less impact on energy efficiency. In addition, urban shrinkage may impede energy efficiency improvement by hindering industrial structure transformation and upgrading, energy-saving technology innovation, and financial development. Clarifying the relationship between urban shrinkage and energy efficiency is helpful for shrinking cities to change their development strategies, which is critical for sustainable development.

Are Medium-Sized Cities in China Shrinking from 2010 to 2020? An Empirical Analysis with a Multi-Dimensional Model

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a worldwide concern, which is increasingly prevalent in developing countries like China, particularly in medium-sized cities (MSCs). Compared to large cities and counties, MSCs find themselves in a national policy blind spot and have been neglected both in policy and research. Previous studies, based on population changes, have shown that urban shrinkage in China is not severe. However, urban shrinkage is not just about population decline, and it has not been adequately discussed from a multi-dimensional perspective. This paper adopts a multi-dimensional model, considering population, economy, and space dimensions to analyze shrinkage patterns in 164 MSCs in China from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal that 6.1% of MSCs experienced population shrinkage, and 24.4% faced shrinkage in economic or spatial dimensions. Shrinking MSCs are spatially distributed in the Northeast as well as in the areas surrounding large cities. Industrial restructuring, job losses, and healthcare disparities contribute to urban shrinkage, and the impact of aging will be further felt. As large cities consistently attract population and resources and digitization has dramatically affected population mobility, more MSCs will shrink in the future. This paper contributes to the understanding of shrinkage of MSCs among scholars and policymakers, urging a shift towards more balanced and digital urban governance.

Does county urban shrinkage in China affect the concentration of lung-accessible particulate matter? An analysis from spatial effects and EKC perspectives.

The environmental effects of urban shrinkage have gradually attracted academic attention. Based on spatial effects and EKC perspectives, this study constructs an environmental impact assessment framework and examines the impact of urban shrinkage on the concentration of lung-accessible particulate matter at the county level in China from 2013 to 2020. The results show that, from a two-dimensional perspective in space and time, lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations show a decreasing trend in the time series and an obvious autocorrelation feature in space. Urban shrinkage can affect lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations through spatial effects. Through direct effects, urban shrinkage promotes the increase of lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations. Through spillover effects, urban shrinkage suppresses the growth of lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations. The effect of urban shrinkage on lung-accessible particulate matter concentration is nonlinear (EKC). This may be the result of the "siphon effect." Furthermore, in the extended STIRPAT model, it was found that population and economic and technological factors differentially affect lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations in shrinking cities. This study gives a new idea and insight into the changes in environmental pollution in shrinking cities.

Expanding the associations between built environment characteristics and residential mobility in high-density neighborhood unit

Global trend of urbanization has led to frequent residential mobility and urban shrinkage issues. Planners and policy makers advocate for enhancing built environment quality of neighbourhood units to address these issues. Although the impact factors and degree of the influence of the built environment on residential mobility have been studied, the nonlinear effects at the neighbourhood level, and the relative importance when considered alongside other factors, remain unclear. In this study, the central area of Nanjing using mobile phone signalling data, the 5Ds framework, machine learning algorithms, and interpretable model Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are examined. The finding shows that (1) economy and neighbourhood ties are still key drivers of relocation. (2) Optimizing highly accessible road network for short-distance travel and developing low-density urban mode has become significant methods to attract relocators, interacting with other factors to influence residential mobility. (3) High-quality neighbourhood design, diverse amenities, and proximity to natural landscapes increase willingness to relocate, (4) while religion, socio-demographics, and large-scale transportation accessibility have minimal impact. The study offers four urban development recommendations to help municipal planners and policy makers create liveable cities and cohesive communities, providing essential insights for early or renewal stage urban planning stages.

Finiq rebirth through digital transformation and “digital nomads”

The topic of shrinking cities is multifaceted and affects cities, regions of cities, or entire metropolitan areas that have seen a rapid decline in their economic and social foundations. Therefore, urban shrinking is frequently a problem for metropolitan regions on a large scale and necessitates that policymakers rethink conventional regional government models. Also, Albania's population overall decreased yearly. This problem is very known in the case of Finiq municipality, which is part of Vlora city. Most of the settlements that are part of the municipality of Finiq present a social framework consisting of a shrinking and always aging population. For various reasons, mainly economic, unemployment and lack of services, the young population of these areas has mostly migrated to Greece. In order to restructure rural areas in response to shrinkage, information and communication technology (ICT), digitaliza- tion, and knowledge intensive activities are essential. It is important to understand the differ- ent aspects of the digital revolution, since the situation is evolving into a new normal where "digital" is not only a response to an emergency but also an ongoing investment against risk. Studies has shown that digital nomads often prefer settlements outside urban areas so they can be a significant contributor to the recovery of the economy in Finiq, which largely depends on ICT infrastructure level of municipality. A lot of researches for digital nomads concluded that digital nomads could be crucial in promoting entrepreneurship and the development of technology clusters all over the world. So, the research question is: how can digital nomads be developed as a new market segment in Finiq and how can digital nomads be utilized in the local digital ecosystem? This study focuses on digital nomads as an emerging market group and the possible knowledge transfer function they might play in the local digital environment.

A Research of Identifying Policy Priorities for Urban Shrinkage Management: Focusing on the Delphi-AHP Approach Targeting Managers of Small and Medium-sized Cities in Northern and Northeastern Gyeonggi-do, South Korea

A Research of Identifying Policy Priorities for Urban Shrinkage Management: Focusing on the Delphi-AHP Approach Targeting Managers of Small and Medium-sized Cities in Northern and Northeastern Gyeonggi-do, South Korea

Relationship between Urban Forest Fragmentation and Urban Shrinkage in China Differentiated by Moisture and Altitude

Forest fragmentation and urban shrinkage have become the focus of attention in global ecological conservation, with the goal of achieving sustainable development. However, few studies have been concerned with urban forest patterns in shrinking cities. It is necessary to explore whether the loss of the population will mitigate urban forest degradation. Thus, in this study, 195 shrinking cities were identified based on demographic datasets to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban forests in China against a depopulation background. To illustrate the explicit spatial evolution of urban forests in shrinking cities in China, in this study, we reclassified land-use products and determined the annual spatial variations from 2000 to 2022 using area-weighted centroids and landscape pattern indexes. The effects of different climatic and topographical conditions on the spatiotemporal variations in the urban forest patterns against population shrinkage were discussed. The results demonstrated that the forest coverage rate in the shrinking cities of China increased from 40.05 to 40.47% with a generally southwestern orientation, and the most frequent decrease appeared from 2010 to 2015. Except for the temperate humid and sub-humid Northeast China, with plains and hills, all geographical sub-regions of the shrinking cities exhibited growing urban forests. Relatively stable movement direction dynamics and dramatic area changes in climatic sub-regions with large forest coverage were observed. The urban forest centroids of shrinking cities at a lower elevation exhibited more fluctuating changes in direction. The urban forests in the shrinking cities of China were slightly fragmented, and this weakened condition was identified via the decelerating fragmentation. The urban forests of the shrinking cities in the warm-temperate, humid, and sub-humid North China and basin regions exhibited the most pattern variations. Therefore, it is emphasized that the monitoring of policy implementation is essential due to the time lag of national policies in shrinking cities, especially within humid and low-altitude regions. This research concludes that the mitigation of urban deforestation in the shrinking cities of China is greatly varied according to moisture and altitude and sheds light on the effects of the population density from a new perspective, providing support for urban forest management and improvements in the quality of residents’ lives.

Urban Regeneration through Cultural–Tourism Entrepreneurship Based on Albergo Diffuso Development: The Venac Historic Core in Sombor, Serbia

The inner core of Sombor, known as “Venac”, is probably the best-preserved one among medium-sized cities in Serbia. The stagnation of Sombor during the 20th century and its urban shrinkage in the 21st century have prevented significant transformations of the core, enabling its preservation under state protection as an urban heritage site. However, the recent rise of cultural tourism has triggered urban regeneration. As the city is still unprepared for this change, this regeneration has mostly omitted the inner core. Realising this, local representatives and experts have started rethinking innovative approaches to its regeneration, including the concept of Albergo Diffuso. This sustainable concept is created to revive the historic cores of small, shrinking cities and towns. Basically, it represents a hotel situated in several old buildings dispersed throughout a historic urban fabric, fitting perfectly into the regeneration of Venac. However, the current lack of precise spatial indicators and thresholds makes their incorporation into the planning process challenging. Considering this, this study focuses on the current spatial development of tourism in Venac, analysing the elements that would support and facilitate the application of this concept in the future. This article also proposes a set of new planning measures to support a strategically organised approach—from the emphasis on urban reuse and physical renewal to multileveled linking of basic concept conditions to the prioritization of pedestrian-friendly places and the application of innovative urban design in open public spaces. By connecting the selected Albergo Diffuso approach with spatial development and its analysis, this study also contributes to the spatial imprint of the concept’s implementation.

Understanding the Relationship between Urban Form and Urban Shrinkage among Medium-Sized Cities in Poland and Its Implications for Sustainability

Understanding the Relationship between Urban Form and Urban Shrinkage among Medium-Sized Cities in Poland and Its Implications for Sustainability

Can urban shrinkage contribute to mitigating surface air temperature warming?

In recent years, urban areas are increasingly experiencing intense warming. Although urbanization is an important driver of warming in urban environments, it remains unclear whether depopulation trends in shrinking cities mitigate this warming effect. Here, we explored the relationship between shrinking cities and observed warming in China. Of the 356 Chinese cities, 95 were identified as shrinking between 2000 and 2010. We categorized 2419 observation stations into three groups—rural, shrinking, and non-shrinking—and generated a surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly series for each group from 1961 to 2014. Temperature differences between the shrinking and non-shrinking urban stations were investigated. Using segmented generalized least squares regression, the spatiotemporal temperature patterns across the mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), and minimum temperatures (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR) indicators, and across seasons—spring, summer, autumn, and winter—were explored. Results revealed a cooling effect in shrinking cities, with decadal decreases of 0.042 °C (–0.078 to –0.005 °C), 0.083 °C (–0.126 to –0.039 °C), and 0.029 °C (–0.062 to –0.005 °C) in regional Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin anomalies, respectively. Moreover, pronounced seasonality was identified in this phenomenon—the cooling effect was most notable for Tmean in spring and Tmax in autumn, less significant in summer, and negligible in winter. These results suggested that the population decline in shrinking cities could alleviate regional warming, having implications that could influence urban planning and climate mitigation policies.

Does shrinkage have an impact on urban livability? An empirical analysis from Northeast China

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a global socioeconomic development issue, presenting new challenges for countries in advancing the construction of livable cities. To investigate whether urban shrinkage has an impact on urban livability (UL), along with its underlying mechanisms and transmission paths, this study employed comparative inductive analysis and took Northeast China as a case for theoretical discussion and empirical validation. The results indicated that: (1) Shrinkage did have an impact on UL, which was dominated by negative effects and supplemented by positive effects. Furthermore, it exhibited characteristics of phased and dimensional heterogeneity, with significant spatial differentiation. (2) The impact of shrinkage on UL was essentially a comprehensive result of the interplay between the positive and negative effects arising from changes in urban development capacity and per capita occupancy caused by shrinkage. This process involved both variable transmission paths and stock transmission paths, jointly explaining the positive and negative shrinkage effects. This study provides a new perspective on rational cognition for coping with shrinkage effects and their generative logic, as well as theoretical insights for other countries around the world to optimize UL in shrinkage scenarios.

Research on identification, classification, and policy development for urban shrinkage: A case study of Liaoning Province, China

Under the influence of economic globalization and the transformation of pillar industries, cities are facing phenomena such as slow economic growth and population outflow, which indicate urban shrinkage. However, the theoretical framework for this phenomenon remains incomplete, and measurement standards are inconsistent. Therefore, studying urban shrinkage is of significant importance. This paper analyzes the current status and causes of urban shrinkage in Liaoning Province, China, and proposes an accurate model for identifying shrinkage. It utilizes a two-step diagnostic method that incorporates both one-dimensional and multidimensional approaches to identify shrinking cities and applies systematic clustering methods to categorize urban population changes. By observing and analyzing the population and economic data of 30 cities over 12 years, this study assesses urban shrinkage from the perspectives of population change and multivariate indicators. It identifies five cities with significant shrinkage, categorized into mild, moderate, and severe levels. Based on multiple linear regression and grey relational analysis, the study examines the impact of socio-economic factors on population changes and offers corresponding development suggestions.

The paradox of urban decline in India

Urban shrinkage has become a global challenge in the field of urban studies. Despite significant progress in understanding urban shrinkage in developed countries, further exploration is necessary to comprehend the recent emergence of urban shrinkage in developing countries. This study explores the spatial pattern of urban shrinkage and urban decline and examines the associated factors of population decline in Indian urban centers. The phenomenon of urban decline in India presents a paradox as the country witnesses a steady growth in urbanization, yet some urban centers are facing a decline in population. Results showed that every one in nine urban centers was declining, with one-fifth of them shrinking in terms of population. The urban growth rate and level of urbanization are major contributing factors to this decline, along with city-level characteristics such as small population size, low population density, low fertility, and a higher aging population. To address this rising threat, urban policymakers in India must plan for the growth and development of declining and shrinking cities through revitalization programs, capital investment, infrastructure development, and micro-regional planning. Further, encouraging inclusive development for small and larger cities can help achieve sustainable urban development in India.

Coupling coordination and interactive relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization from the perspective of shrinking cities: a case study of Jiangsu province, China

Introduction: Urban contraction brings about certain impacts on the advancement of urbanization.Methods: This paper explores the coupling coordination (CCD) and geographical distribution of land urbanization (LU) and population urbanization (PU) in Jiangsu Province through a CCD model and a spatial autocorrelation model from the perspective of shrinking cities. The Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is constructed to deeply investigate the complex interaction between the PU-LU in 13 cities, 2007-2020.Results: The study found that the PU-LU CCD in each of the above-mentioned cities shows a synergistic incremental evolution during the study period in terms of time series. In addition, in terms of spatial characteristics, the CCD of PU and LU shows significant positive global spatial autocorrelation, and the CCD of cities with high population size growth is much larger than that of cities with continuous population size. Last, there is an interactive response relationship between PU and LU. PU influences LU, however, PU itself is influenced by its own system’s internal structure. The impact of PU on LU shows a positive cumulative effect of the “inverted U shape.”Discussion: Furthermore, this paper proposes that policies be created to ensure the coordinated growth of PU-LU based on the differences in resource endowments of cities with 3 types of urban shrinkage. The link between floating population and construction land for cities should be established through enhancing the extent of intensive land use and reforming household registration.

Urban Shrinkage, Degrowth, and Sustainability: An Updated Research Agenda

Shrinking cities and degrowth thinking share their parting from the dominant growth paradigm and seem to have much to offer to each other. Could degrowth be an inspiring and guiding paradigm for the sustainable development of shrinking cities? Could shrinking cities be suitable testing grounds to apply degrowth’s radical sustainability principles in practice? These and other questions regarding the connections between urban shrinkage, degrowth, and sustainability have hardly been addressed in the scientific literature thus far. This thematic issue brings together novel empirical contributions, taking stock of first attempts to connect degrowth to urban shrinkage, exploring in how far this potential unfolds in practice and what obstacles these attempts face, with a focus on the field of urban planning. In this editorial, we discuss the connections between shrinking cities, degrowth, and sustainability identified in the empirical studies and the dialogues that span across these contributions. We conclude with an updated research agenda for this field of study.

Mapping the emergence of the circular economy within the governance paths of shrinking cities and regions: a comparative study of Parkstad Limburg (NL) and Satakunta (FI)

Abstract This paper studies the interplay between governance priorities concerning urban shrinkage and the circular economy (CE) agenda in the cases of Parkstad Limburg (NL) and Satakunta (FI), aiming to assess the potential of European circular imaginaries for creating novel development pathways in shrinking cities and regions. The findings reveal that the CE agenda emerges within specific sectors due to various influences, including European institutional frameworks, national policies and local initiatives. Notably, the advocacy of commercial actors plays an instrumental role in advancing the CE concept into policy. However, both regions also demonstrate differences arising from distinct regional characteristics. Satakunta harnesses its manufacturing legacy to pursue economic and demographic growth through an industrial CE. Meanwhile, Parkstad Limburg prioritises circular construction to facilitate spatial restructuring and secure public funding. Therefore, in shrinking contexts, CE operates as a unifying agenda for existing interests, upholding prevailing political priorities rather than opening novel governance avenues.

Measuring urban shrinkage in India using night-light data from DMSP-OLS and VIIRS-NPP satellite sensors

Urban shrinkage, an emerging phenomenon marked by a decline in city population, is experienced by both developed and developing countries. In Asia, India hosts a significant number of shrinking cities. Over traditional population measures, night-light data emerges as a great replacement for advanced measurement of socio-economic and demographic parameters without any constraint of time and administrative boundaries. This study aims to measure urban shrinkage in India using night-light data captured by DMSP/OLS and VIIRS satellite sensors, examine spatial patterns, and verify them using population-based estimates. Despite increased economic development and availability of electricity compared to 1990, there has been a reduction in night light reflection in many parts. The results show that 20 % of cities experienced urban shrinkage in India during 1992–2021. The shrinking cities cluster in eastern, southern, and northern zones, and the spatial pattern matches with population-based estimates. The paradox of urban shrinkage in India signals a need for the enhancement of urban policies and programs. Striving for balanced urban growth is crucial for fostering economic prosperity and reducing regional inequality. An inclusive development approach for all urban settlements may help address the premature issue of urban shrinkage in India and achieve sustainable development goals.