The paradox of urban decline in India

Abstract

Urban shrinkage has become a global challenge in the field of urban studies. Despite significant progress in understanding urban shrinkage in developed countries, further exploration is necessary to comprehend the recent emergence of urban shrinkage in developing countries. This study explores the spatial pattern of urban shrinkage and urban decline and examines the associated factors of population decline in Indian urban centers. The phenomenon of urban decline in India presents a paradox as the country witnesses a steady growth in urbanization, yet some urban centers are facing a decline in population. Results showed that every one in nine urban centers was declining, with one-fifth of them shrinking in terms of population. The urban growth rate and level of urbanization are major contributing factors to this decline, along with city-level characteristics such as small population size, low population density, low fertility, and a higher aging population. To address this rising threat, urban policymakers in India must plan for the growth and development of declining and shrinking cities through revitalization programs, capital investment, infrastructure development, and micro-regional planning. Further, encouraging inclusive development for small and larger cities can help achieve sustainable urban development in India.