Urban Land Change Research Articles

Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

The intensity change of urban development land: Implications for the city master plan of Guangzhou, China

The Chinese economy has experienced substantial development over the last thirty years. This growth has resulted in an enormous expansion of China's urban areas and it has also led to a growing scarcity of land resources. Consequently, there is currently an urgent need to mitigate the conflict between the needs of growing urban areas and the shrinking supply of land resources. Understanding land-use intensity and its changes can provide important information to find mitigating measures for this conflict in the demand for land. Previous studies have found that increasing the utilization efficiency of land resources is one of the most effective ways to resolve this issue. This study focuses on the city of Guangzhou, which is an intensively developed megalopolis. A number of different data sources have been analyzed to find the characteristics and changes in urban land use in Guangzhou, including: Landsat data from 1979, 1990, 2000, and 2009; relative socioeconomic data from the Guangzhou statistic yearbooks; and the master plans of Guangzhou. The results indicate that the area of developed land has continued to increase. Urban development land intensity and its change were then explored using a Back Propagation neural network model of the city. Although the analysis revealed that urban development land did not have a higher intensity overall, it also showed that there was a sectional upward trend throughout the study period. Consequently, there is a potential to improve the land-use intensity of Guangzhou. A linear regression model was then adopted to explore the mechanism of land use change. The results reveal that rapid industrialization and urbanization have improved land-use intensity in Guangzhou. The per capita urban road area and per capita GDP show a strong relationship when compared with land-use intensity. Using the relative city master plans, the authors have argued that local government in Guangzhou has taken active steps to address land issues to promote the city's socioeconomic development; however, a scientific city master plan in the study area is still necessary to ensure the effective utilization of the city's limited land resources.

Forces Driving Changes in Urban Construction Land of Urban Agglomerations in China

AbstractThis article presents the results of changes in urban construction land and driving forces of urban agglomerations in China. First, the urban construction land areas and the urban construction land areas per ten thousand persons were compared in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2008. Second, a dynamic degree model was used to express changes in urban construction land areas at different periods and to present the spatial traits of the changes using geography information system software (9.0). Furthermore, cointegrated relationship analysis and the Granger causality test were adopted to analyze the correlation between urban construction land area and the influential factors. The conclusions are that (1) the periodicity of urban construction land area increase in the three urban agglomerations is obvious, and the rate of increase before 2005 was higher than after 2005 for all three urban agglo...

Trajectory-based detection of urban expansion using Landsat time series

The ongoing development of urbanization makes it increasingly necessary to map urban expansion over a longer term than ever. Long time series of remotely sensed images are useful data for understanding urban dynamic processes spatio-temporally, but they are difficult to utilize with traditional bi-temporal change detection techniques. In this article, a framework for mapping urban expansion from long Landsat time series is proposed based on trajectory analysis. Assuming that change indicator trajectories could reveal land-cover change trajectories, there are distinctive temporal signatures of different land-cover conversions in such trajectories that can be traced. Accordingly, ideal trajectories of other land-cover types converting to urban land are described. The entire observed trajectory was examined and fitted with ideal trajectories to detect areas that fit the description. This approach requires no single-date classification or extraction of urban land or bi-temporal change threshold determination, and it utilizes temporal information contained in the time series. We tested the method using a 7-year time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery of an urban fringe area of Beijing, China, acquired between 1999 and 2011. The detection of stable urban land and new urban land achieved an overall accuracy of 83.30%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.7917.

The “sowing of concrete”: Peri-urban smallholder perceptions of rural–urban land change in the Central Peruvian Andes

Policy makers concerned with the peri-urban interface find their greatest challenges in the rapid urban growth of developing mountain regions, since limitations caused by relief and altitude often lead to an increased competition between rural and urban land use at the valley floors. In this context, little attention has been paid to the affected agriculturalists’ perceptions of peri-urban growth—important information required for the realization of sustainable land use planning. How is the process of rural–urban land change perceived and assessed by peri-urban smallholder communities? Which are the major difficulties to be overcome? By what means are the affected people reacting and how are these adaptation strategies linked with the ongoing landscape transformations of the hinterland?By using the example of Huancayo Metropolitano, an emerging Peruvian mountain city, it is shown that rural–urban land change is intensively discussed within peri-urban smallholder groups. Although urbanization also leads to infrastructure investments by public institutions—an advantage perceived throughout the study area—the negative impacts of rural–urban land use change prevail. The perceptions’ analysis reveals that the decrease of fertile and irrigated agricultural land at the quechua valley floor is especially considered to threaten subsistence, food and income security. In order to compensate the loss of production capacities, many smallholders try to expand or intensify their land use at the suni altitudinal belt: an agro-ecological zone characterized by steep and nonirrigated slopes that can actually not be used for the year-round production of crops previously cultivated at the quechua zone.

Driving Force Differences of Urban Construction Land Changes among Urban Agglomerations

In this paper, the author compared the changes of urban construction land and driving forces in Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Peal River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2008, which was in order to find out the differences in changes laws and influential factors. The author introduced Correlation analysis, Co-integrated relationship and Granger causality test in metrology analyses to further research the relationship between urban construction land changes and driving forces.

Application of Remote Sensing Technology in the Analysis of Thermal Environment in Dongying City

Urban thermal environment, as an important reflection of urban ecological environment, is affected strongly by urban land change, especially the loss of green land. By using remote sensing and GIS, two terms of remote images of Dongying city are studied to disclose vegetation coverage and land surface temperature that can reflect urban thermal environment.

Remote sensing science to inform urban climate change mitigation strategies

Remote sensing offers unique perspectives to study the relationship between urban systems and climate change because it provides spatially explicit and synoptic views of the landscape that are available at multiple grains, extents, and over time. While remote sensing has made significant advances in the study of urban areas, especially urban heat island and urban land change, there are myriad unanswered science and policy questions to which remote sensing science could contribute. Here we identify several key opportunities for remote sensing science to increase our understanding of the relationships between urban systems and climate change.

Interactions between Climate, Socioeconomics, and Land Dynamics in Qinghai Province, China: A LUCD Model-Based Numerical Experiment

This simulation-based research produces a set of forecast land use data of Qinghai Province, China, applying the land use change dynamics (LUCD) model. The simulation results show that the land use pattern will almost keep being consistent in the period from 2010 to 2050 with that in 2000 in Qinghai Province. Grassland and barren or sparsely vegetated land will cover more than 80% of the province’s total area. The land use change will be inconspicuous in the period from 2010 to 2050 involving only 0.49% of the province’s land. The expansion of urban and built-up land, grassland, and barren or sparsely vegetated land and the area reduction of mixed dryland/irrigated cropland and pasture, water bodies, and snow or ice will dominate land use changes of the case study area. The changes of urban and built-up land and mixed dryland/irrigated cropland and pasture will slow down over time. Meanwhile, the change rates of water bodies, snow and ice, barren or sparsely vegetated land, and grassland will show an inverted U-shaped trajectory. Except for providing underlying surfaces for RCMs for future climate change assessment, this empirical research of regional land use change may enhance the understanding of land surface system dynamics.

Vivid valleys, pallid peaks? Hypsometric variations and rural–urban land change in the Central Peruvian Andes

What happens to the land cover within the hinterland's altitudinal belts while Central Andean cities are undergoing globalization and urban restructuring? What conclusions can be drawn about changes in human land use? By incorporating a regional altitudinal zonation model, direct field observations and GIS analyses of remotely sensed long term data, the present study examines these questions using the example of Huancayo Metropolitano – an emerging Peruvian mountain city of 420,000 inhabitants, situated at 3260 m asl in the Mantaro Valley.The study's results indicate that rapid urban growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s was followed by the agricultural intensification and peri-urban condominization at the valley floor (quechua) – since the beginning of Peru's neoliberal era. Moreover, regarding the adjoining steep slopes (suni) and subsequent grassland ecosystems (puna), the research output presents land cover change trajectories that clearly show an expansion of human land use, such as reforestation for wood production and range burning for livestock grazing, even at high altitudes – despite rural–urban migration trends and contrary to several results of extra-Andean studies.Consequently, rural–urban planners and policy makers are challenged to focus on the manifold impacts of globalization on human land use – at all altitudinal belts of the Andean city's hinterland: toward sustainable mountain development that bridges the social and physical gaps – from the bottom up.

Research on the Relationship between Evolution of Urban Land Structure and Industrial Structure Transformation: A Case Study of Chengdu City

From lateral perspective, this paper analyzes the relationship between evolution of urban land structure and industrial structure transformation, through proportion change index and Granger method. The empirical study shows three points. First of all, Chengdu land structure change shows that city feature is not perfect, living environment and ecological environment construction needs to be strengthened. Moreover, the industrial structure optimization of Chengdu continues and the tertiary industry gradually occupied a dominant position. Ultimately, in short-term, urban land change drived industry structure transformation, then industry structure transformation feeded back urban land structure change; the synchronization action between urban land structure evolution and industrial structure change has not appeared, and the reciprocal causation of them will come true under the long-time adjusting.

Urban land teleconnections and sustainability

This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural-urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental "grand challenges" and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept.

Land use drivers of species re‐expansion: inferring colonization dynamics in Eurasian otters

AbstractAim Land use intensity has been recognized as one of the major determinants of native species declines. The re‐expansion of species previously constrained by habitat degradation has been rarely investigated. Here, we use site occupancy models incorporating imperfect detection to identify the land use drivers of the re‐expansion of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra).Location Czech Republic.Methods We applied multi‐season occupancy models to otter presence–non‐detection data collected in three national surveys (1992, 2000, 2006) at 552 sites (11.2 × 12 km grid cells). Model parameters included site occupancy, colonization and extinction probabilities, and detection probability at a sub‐site level. We modelled changes in occupancy over time as a function of agricultural, urban and industrial land use and change in the extent of agricultural land use.Results Under the best fitting model, occupancy was estimated to be 34.6% in 1992, 51.3% in 2000 and 83.7% in 2006. Detection probability was neither perfect nor constant. Occupancy probability in 1992 was negatively related to land use gradients. Colonization was more likely to occur where a reduction in agricultural land was larger. Variation in extinction and colonization rates along land use gradients resulted in increased occupancy in industrial and especially urban landscapes. Conversely, occupancy remained almost unchanged along agricultural gradients.Main conclusions Dynamics of otter expansion were strongly associated with the two main patterns of the rapid environmental transition that has taken place in the Czech Republic since the early 1990s. Results show that a reduction in intensive agricultural land use led to an increase in otter distribution, providing evidence of the impact of agricultural land use on stream ecosystems. Moreover, otters recolonized urban and industrial landscapes, probably as a result of extensive reduction in water pollution from point sources. Our results suggest that active conservation of otter populations should focus on restoration of freshwater habitat at large scales, especially in agricultural landscapes.

Capturing multiscalar feedbacks in urban land change: a coupled system dynamics spatial logistic approach

In this paper we ask two questions: Does a multiscalar urban land-change model that couples a region-scale system dynamics model with a local-scale spatial logit model better predict the amount of urban land change than either model alone? Does a multiscalar urban land-change model that couples regional and local-scale factors better predict the spatial patterns of urban land change than a standalone local-scale spatial logit model? To examine these questions, we develop a coupled system dynamics spatial logit (CSDSL) model for the Pearl River Delta, China, that incorporates region-scale population and economic factors with local-scale biophysical and accessibility factors. In terms of predicting the amounts of urban land change, the CSDSL model is 15% and 18% more accurate than the standalone spatial logit and system dynamics models, respectively. In terms of predicting the spatial pattern of urban land change, the CSDSL model slightly outperforms the spatial logit model as measured by four spatial patte...

Spatial Metrics based Landscape Structure and Dynamics Assessment for an emerging Indian Megalopolis

Human-induced land use changes are considered the prime agents of the global environmental changes. Urbanisation and associated growth patterns (urban sprawl) are characteristic of spatial temporal changes that take place at regional levels. Unplanned urbanization and consequent impacts on natural resources including basic amenities has necessitated the investigations of spatial patterns of urbanization. A comprehensive assessment using quantitative methods and methodological understanding using rigorous methods is required to understand the patterns of change that occur as human processes transform the landscapes to help regional land use planners to easily identify, understand the necessary requirement. Tier II cities in India are undergoing rapid changes in recent times and need to be planned to minimize the impacts of unplanned urbanisation. Mysore is one of the rapidly urbanizing traditional regions of Karnataka, India. In this study, an integrated approach of remote sensing and spatial metrics with gradient analysis was used to identify the trends of urban land changes. The spatial and temporal dynamic pattern of the urbanization process of the megalopolis region considering the spatial data for the ?ve decades with 3 km buffer from the city boundary has been studied, which help in the implementation of location specific mitigation measures. The time series of gradient analysis through landscape metrics helped in describing, quantifying and monitoring the spatial configuration of urbanization at landscape levels. Results indicated a signi?cant increase of urban built-up area during the last four decades. Landscape metrics indicates the coalescence of urban areas occurred during the rapid urban growth from 2000 to 2009 indicating the clumped growth at the center with simple shapes and dispersed growth in the boundary region with convoluted shapes.

Study on Space Model of Urban Expansion

With GIS spatial application model, from the angles of space developing and changing, explore the motion and change rules of urban development in the process of urbanization, and improve scientific nature and accuracy of forecast. To analyze the characteristics and their driving forces of changes in urban construction land and urban expansion space, first we have explored space model of urban expansion theoretically, then made some research combining the examples of urban spatial and temporal changes in Luoyang City. Study the laws of urban expansion from the angles of temporal and spatial variation with GIS space analysis model, thereby explore the internal mechanism of urban spatial variation, which can be provided with better research efficiency.

Modeling spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: The case of Nanjing

Revealing spatially varying relationships between urban growth patterns and underlying determinants is important for better understanding local dimensions of urban development. Through a case study of Nanjing, China, we employ both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land expansion against a set of spatial variables. We found that compared with other fast growing coastal cities, Nanjing remains a relatively compact city. The orthodox logistic regression found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and urban agglomeration in urban land change. The logistic GWR significantly improves the global logistic regression model in terms of better model goodness-of-fit and lower level of spatial autocorrelation of residuals. More importantly, the local estimates of parameters of spatial variables enable us to investigate spatial variations of the influences of spatial variables on urban growth. We have found distinctive local patterns and effects of urban growth in Nanjing, shaped by local urban spatial and institutional structures. A probability surface of urban growth, which is generated from raster calculations among the parameter and variable surfaces, provides a clear scenario of urban growth patterns and can be useful for decision making. This study also shows the importance of policy studies and fieldwork in the interpretation of results generated from statistical and GIS modeling.

Correlation between Urban Land Change Process and Socioeconomic Development since the 1980s in Jiangsu Province

Abstract Studying the process and characteristics of urban land change in different phases of urbanization and different economic development is much important for understanding urban land change and management at a macro level. Taking the example of Jiangsu Province, the present paper studied the correlation between urban land change process and socioeconomic development from 1981 to 2003 on the basis of statistical data. The results showed the following three aspects. First, urban land area has changed periodically and the research duration can be divided into two periods: from 1981 to 1994 and from 1995 to 2003. In each period, the changing trend is the same, i.e. slow at first and then quick. Studying from the comprehensive change status, the characteristic of fluctuant change is significant with three acute change pinnacles in 1988, 1991 and 2002 which were corresponded to turning point years of economic development phases of Jiangsu Province respectively. Second, the synchronization between urban la...

Characterizing urban sprawl using multi-stage remote sensing images and landscape metrics

This study intends to explore the spatial analytical methods to identify both general trends and more subtle patterns of urban land changes. Landsat imagery of metropolitan Kansas City, USA was used to generate time series of land cover data over the past three decades. Based on remotely sensed land cover data, landscape metrics were calculated. Both the remotely sensed data and landscape metrics were used to characterize long-term trends and patterns of urban sprawl. Land cover change analyses at the metropolitan, county, and city levels reveal that over the past three decades the significant increase of built-up land in the study area was mainly at the expense of non-forest vegetation cover. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the land cover changes allowed the identification of fast and slow sprawling areas. The landscape metrics were analyzed across jurisdictional levels to understand the effects of the built-up expansion on the forestland and non-forest vegetation cover. The results of the analysis suggest that at the metropolitan level both the areas of non-forest vegetation and the forestland became more fragmented due to development while large forest patches were less affected. Metrics statistics show that this landscape effect occurred moderately at the county level, while it could be only weakly identified at the city level, suggesting a scale effect that the landscape response of urbanization can be better revealed within larger spatial units (e.g., a metropolitan area or a county as compared to a city). The interpretation of the built-up patch density metrics helped identify different stages of urbanization in two major urban sprawl directions of the metropolitan area. Land consumption indices (LCI) were devised to relate the remotely sensed built-up growth to changes in housing and commercial constructions as major driving factors, providing an effective measure to compare and characterize urban sprawl across jurisdictional boundaries and time periods.

Calibrer un modèle d’évolution de l’occupation du sol urbain. L’exemple de Belfort

La loi SRU et les principes actuels de l’urbanisme insistent sur la notion de projet et de prospective territoriale. Cette idee peut s’appuyer sur un certain nombre de simulations et faire appel a la modelisation. Le modele de simulation presente ici s’articule en trois etapes complementaires qui tentent successivement de quantifier, de localiser et de differencier les futurs changements probables des aires urbaines. Cette modelisation doit egalement s’appuyer sur un parametrage robuste et reflechi : ici, l’etude des situations anterieures offre autant d’indicateurs pour evaluer les coefficients a introduire dans les modeles. L’exemple de l’agglomeration de Belfort illustre l’ensemble de la demarche de modelisation urbaine et de calibrage des modeles.