Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Research Articles

Urban comprehensive carrying capacity analysis in Zhejiang Province of China from the perspective of production, living, and ecological spaces

ABSTRACT Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity (UCCC) can describe the development of a city and is an important guarantee for its sustainable development. Production-Living-Ecological Space (PLES) is an important guideline for the optimal development of China’s land space in the new era. Based on the PLES, we construct a UCCC index system and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the UCCC of each city in Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2020. In addition, a coupling coordination degree model and an obstacle degree model are introduced to analyze the coupling coordination degree of the development of PLES of each city and the main constraint indicators, respectively, and a GM(1,1) model is used to predict the UCCC of each city in Zhejiang Province from 2021 to 2025. The study indicates that (1) the UCCC of each city is steadily increasing, with a growth rate of over 30% in 15 years. (2) As of 2020, the highest degree of coupling coordination reaches only 0.508, and it remains a major challenge for cities to improve the coordination degree of land use. (3) Some production space and living space indicators are the main obstacle indicators hindering the development of the UCCC in Zhejiang Province. (4) The forecast results show that the UCCC in each city will still maintain an upwards trend in the following 6 years and will gradually reach a high carrying capacity level.

Measurements and Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in the Yellow River Basin

An evaluation index system was conducted to determine the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin using four subsystems (resources, society, ecology, and economy). The urban comprehensive carrying capacity level of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2019 was determined using the entropy weight TOPSIS model, and the spatial and temporal dynamics of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of each province were investigated. There were four key results. (1) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the upstream and downstream provinces decreased from 2008 to 2011 and increased from 2011 to 2019; in the midstream provinces, it increased from 2008 to 2011 but decreased after 2011. (2) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin was “high in the east and west, low in the middle” from 2008 to 2017, while in 2019, the distribution was “high in the west and low in the east.” The gap between the urban comprehensive carrying capacities of the nine provinces and regions gradually narrowed over the study period. (3) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin increased annually during the study period. (4) The urban comprehensive carrying capacity was mainly influenced by the social and ecological subsystems.

Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Urbanization in Northeast China

The scientific evaluation and identification of the relationship between urban comprehensive carrying capacity and urbanization in Northeast China, a famous old industrial base, is an important basis for realizing the overall revitalization of the region. Using a panel data set of 34 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2019, this study constructs an ordinary panel data model to identify the relationship between urban comprehensive carrying capacity and urbanization. The results show that urbanization has significantly positive effects on urban comprehensive carrying capacity, and there is a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urban comprehensive carrying capacity and comprehensive urbanization in Northeast China, especially in the shrinking cites. In addition, the economic urbanization variables of the fixed-asset investment, the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the social urbanization variable of internet users play significantly important roles in forming of the inverted U-shaped curve relationship with the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the shrinking cities in Northeast China. Hence, innovation-driven economic regrowth, promoting equalization of basic public services, alleviating talent outflow, and strengthening the leading roles of the core cities are effective measures for improving urban comprehensive carrying capacity and urbanization quality in Northeast China.

An inquiry into urban carrying capacity of sustainable development demonstration belt of China: Multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction

AbstractHow to seek multiregional sustainable development within planetary boundaries depends on the scientific inquiry into urban carrying capacity from multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction. Using a typical region moving forward on the sustainable development demonstration belt of China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), as a case study, a new integrated framework of multiscale evaluation and multidimensional interaction is proposed to track the urban comprehensive carrying capacity. We made a multiscale comprehensive assessment and constructed a panel vector autoregressive model for giving dissection on the drivers of urban carrying capacity and the qualitative and quantitative interaction from multidimensional variations. Results show that (1) the urban carrying capacity of China's YREB and its three reaches harbors an upward trend over time although there are uneven development patterns of inter‐regional and inter‐dimensional urban carrying capacity; (2) factor market carrying capacity (FMCC) is the critical driving force among four dimensions of urban carrying capacity, which has promotion effects on ecological environment carrying capacity (EECC) and industrial economics carrying capacity, but an inhibiting effect on transportation carrying capacity (TCC). (3) FMCC is the Granger cause of TCC, and there is a bidirectional Granger causality between the dimensions of FMCC and EECC; (4) each dimension is self‐supporting and influenced by its fluctuations. Tracking the underlying factors of urban carrying capacity can help construct an early‐warning mechanism when confronting the challenge of sustainable development and play a guiding role in both academic and practical aspects.

Multiscale disparity and spatial pattern of comprehensive carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Exploring and revealing the comprehensive carrying capacity is a critical barometer and benchmark for multiregional sustainable development. Using a typical multiscale region moving forward on a green development demonstration belt (China’ s Yangtze River Economic Belt) as a case study, the multiscale disparity of comprehensive carrying capacity during the period 2005–2019 is presented after a comprehensive assessment of multiscale carrying capacity level. Some convergence models, covering δ-convergence, absolute β-convergence, and conditional β-convergence, are constructed to test the disparity of urban comprehensive carrying capacity. Furthermore, the multiscale disparity of comprehensive carrying capacity is quantified when the decomposition model is used to determine the specific contributions to total disparity (from inter-urban agglomerations or intra-urban agglomeration), and then the spatial aggregation effect of urban comprehensive carrying capacity is analyzed. The results highlight that: YREB’s comprehensive carrying capacity is gradually improving whether at the scale of upper, middle, lower reaches, or the whole; there is an obvious inter-city disparity of comprehensive carrying capacity from the results of conditional β-convergence; the further conditional β-convergence tells that urban ecological and sustainable management and its stakeholder engagements should begin with the sufficient eco-environment endowment, good transportation system, well-reconstructed market environment, and the healthy economic structure or benefit; the disparity from the lower reaches is greater than that from the middle and upper reaches when the specific disparity from intra-low reaches plays a significant role, and there is a spatial aggregation effect of urban carrying capacity in the study area. Future policies and regulatory decisions must address such multiregional disparities to foster sustainable development based on the “equity and efficiency” philosophy.

Exploring Spatiotemporal Variations and Driving Factors of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) is one of the most active economic development regions in China. However, the YRDUA is facing the severe test of sustainable development. Therefore, this study evaluates the urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCCC) of cities in the YRDUA from 2009 to 2019 from natural, social, and economic perspectives, and uses the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model to analyze driving factors of spatiotemporal variations of the UCCC. Besides, this study divides the UCCC into three levels: high, medium, and low. The results indicate that: 1) there is a significant spatial heterogeneity of the UCCC in the YRDUA; 2) the UCCC in the YRDUA is generally at medium level and presents a gradually increasing trend; 3) 10 driving factors significantly affect the UCCC, and the influence intensity is non-stationary in time and space. These findings can provide references for improving the UCCC in the YRDUA.

Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Development Order: A “Pressure-Capacity-Potential” Logical Framework

Urban comprehensive carrying capacity determines the scale and development direction of a city and is an important factor in the optimization of main function areas, the arrangement of urban development order, and the demarcation of urban development boundaries in China’s new national spatial planning system. Using the constructed “pressure-capacity-potential” model as a theoretical basis, this study combines human factors and natural factors and calculates the urban carrying capacity index by means of multi-factor weighted summation, graded assignment, stepwise correction, and subsection variable weight. From the perspective of the integration and coordination of “three forces,” urban development rules are established, and an urban development order based on the framework of “three districts and six types” is put forward. The results reveal four key findings. First, the “pressure-capability-potential” conceptual model analyzes the urban carrying capacity from the perspective of the integration of externality and internality, which can effectively support the orderly arrangement and rational layout of urban development. Second, the urban carrying pressure of Shandong province is general, and the urban carrying capacity is high. The results also showed that the urban carrying potential is low and the urban comprehensive carrying capacity is high. Third, in the “3+6” urban development pattern of Shandong province, priority development and key development zones are the main areas. For the most part, these zones are distributed in the Jiaodong Peninsula, the Jinan–Tai’an–Jining development zone, and the surrounding areas of Weifang, Linyi, Liaocheng, and Heze. Moderate development zones are concentrated in Nansi Lake and the Yellow River Delta. Fourth, the urban development in Shandong province is mainly restricted by landform, water resources, environmental capacity, and geological disasters. Under the premise of ensuring resource conservation and environmental friendliness, using policies and engineering measures to revitalize stock space is an effective way to foster urban development in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This study can provide reference for the evaluation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity and the establishment of development order in Shandong province and other similar areas.

Construction and Analysis of Governance Evaluation Index System of Beijing Urban Subcenter Based on System Theory and Information Theory

The construction of subcenters is considered an effective measure to solve the diseases in big cities and improve urban competitiveness. China takes the planning and construction of the Beijing urban subcenter as a major national decision-making deployment. Therefore, the establishment of a scientific and reliable evaluation index system for the urban subcenter is of great significance to the public sector to diagnose urban problems and improve urban performance management. Under the guidance of system theory, this paper establishes the governance evaluation index system of the Beijing subcenter based on the five subsystems: economic subsystem, social subsystem, cultural subsystem, ecological subsystem, and administrative subsystem, and 29 secondary indicators. After comprehensively examining the panel data of the overall Beijing urban system during the construction of the subcenter (2010–2019), the entropy method is used to objectively assign the value of the Beijing urban subcenter (Tongzhou District), and it is compared with other 15 municipal districts. The derivation of the development dynamic evolution of the Beijing urban subcenter is completed through the geospatial visualization and the linear regression fitting. It is found that the comprehensive index of urban subcenter governance in Beijing shows an upward trend year by year and has developed by leaps and bounds under the promotion of the central policy. Driven by Beijing’s subcenter strategy, the development model of the whole of Beijing has moved from a typical center diffusion model to a dual center to a subcenter and even a diversified development pattern. This paper proposes to lead urban development with the concept of high-quality development, adhere to innovation-driven, improve urban comprehensive carrying capacity through urban software and hardware construction, and realize regional coordinated development on a larger spatial scale.

Evaluation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on regional collaboration.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is the most prominent urban agglomeration in China, with plans for further development. Using the regional collaboration theoretical framework for assessing urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCC), the improved entropy method is applied to establish an index system based on a social, economic, environment, and transportation perspective to compare UCCs of the GBA's 11 cities for 2000-2016. Results show that the social subsystem is central to the evaluation system. Cities' performances vary significantly, with six becoming overloaded in 2016 and the other five remaining loadable. Guangzhou performed best, with a rising UCC; Shenzhen rebounded after a long period of decline; Hong Kong's capacity rose slightly, with some fluctuation; and Macao performed worse and continues to slide, with no signs of improvement. Overall, the UCC of the urban agglomeration showed a downward trend, with only a few cities continuing to improve. The spatial distribution for UCC was high in the north and low in the south, showing scope for improvement. The study enriches regional collaboration theory and proposes policy implications for GBA development.

Evaluation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity: case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China.

An evaluation indexing system based on the theory of coordination was constructed to estimate the urban carrying capacity (UCC) of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with four subsystems: social, economic, environmental, and transportation. This indexing system revealed the interactions between "supply" and "demand." The improved entropy method was adopted to calculate the weight of 17 indicators and evaluate the comprehensive UCC of 13 cities in the BTH region using data covering the period 1990-2018. The results showed that two cities, Tangshan (UCC of - 0.0021) and Handan (UCC of - 0.0009), were "overloaded" in 2018, while the other 11 cities were "loadable." The social and transportation subsystems played the most crucial roles in the evaluation. Based on the results, Baoding achieved the highest UCC, while that of Tangshan was the lowest. The results could play a significant role in decision-making relating to the sustainable development of the BTH region. Three policy implications are proposed based on these findings: (i) the efficiency of resource utilization and scientific allocation should be enhanced and industrial optimization and upgrading should be promoted, (ii) the coordinated development of urbanization and environment in the region should be improved, and (iii) the integration of traffic decongestion measures should be faster, and industrial docking systems should be enhanced.

A Four-Dimensional Evaluation of the Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the Yangtze River Delta, China

The evaluation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCC) is of great importance in maintaining urban socio-economic sustainable development. However, UCC is still in its nascent period with limited applications and a lack of credible assessment methods. To enrich this field, this study constructed an objective scientific index to evaluate the UCC of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from a four-dimensional perspective, examining economy, society, environmental, and transportation subsystems. The improved entropy method based on 18 weighted indicators was used to measure the UCC of the 26 cities of the YRD for the period 1990–2018. Results indicate that nine cities were overloaded in 2018, meaning comprehensive carrying capacity demand exceeds supply, and the other seventeen were in loadable condition, meaning such demand did not exceed supply; the social and transportation subsystems are the most important because their index weights and UCC levels are higher than the other two subsystems; the overall UCC for all cities in the YRD is at a medium level, and there are large disparities between the various cities. The empirical results imply that the government should take effective measures to improve UCC in these cities, combining cities’ specific advantages to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and utilization and improve carrying capacities, and changing the mode of economic development. Based on UCC levels, it is also important to improve environmental conditions and coordination and integration in the development of urbanization. Policy implications on improving UCC have been highlighted in the final section.

Performance Evaluation of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Harbin, Heilongjiang Province in China

Urban comprehensive carrying capacity is an important guarantee and external representation of regional sustainable development. Based on urban comprehensive carrying capacity, this paper constructed a performance evaluation index system of urban comprehensive carrying capacity, and used entropy method, urban comprehensive carrying capacity measurement model and urban sustainable development model to measure spatial and temporal comprehensive carrying capacity of Harbin City in Heilongjiang Province from 2012 to 2017. The results show that: 1) index weight analysis suggested the regional development mode in Harbin still followed an epitaxial development mode, which pursued the expansion of scale and the growth of total amount of regional development, neglecting the effective utilization of resources and the improvement of structural benefits. 2) In the pressure system, the index of resource support has dropped sharply. The index of environmental capacity and social progress has risen circuitously, while the degree of agglomeration and the value of transportation facilities have risen steadily; in the pressure system, the index of population development and economic growth tended to fluctuate, while energy consumption and environmental pollution showed a more synchronous change in characteristics, and the livable demand remained at a high level. 3) The carrying capacity index of resources and environment in Harbin has been declining, and the acquired carrying capacity index fluctuated. The long-term regional development model has severely impaired the carrying capacity of resources and environment. 4) The comprehensive carrying capacity of Harbin has clear spatial differentiation characteristics. Finally, the paper proposes that location conditions, economic development level, government regulation, and science and technology are the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity.

An Evaluation Model for Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity: An Empirical Case from Harbin City.

Urbanization has brought notable benefits for cities, but has also resulted in severe and diverse challenges in China. Previous studies have contributed to the definitions and evaluation of urbanization. However, there remain a great deal of ambiguities regarding urban comprehensive carrying capacity, and its measurable indicators still need further exploration given the urban development. This study aims to explore a model for evaluating urban comprehensive carrying capacity and thus to promote urban development. A total of 48 indicators which fell into 8 subsystems were identified to evaluate the urban comprehensive carrying capacity through literature reviews and interviews. The indicator set was developed for evaluation indicator selecting. Meanwhile, the dynamic system was explored, and an evaluation model based on the entire array polygon method was designed to evaluate urban comprehensive carrying capacity. Finally, a case study was conducted to provide suggestions for the decision-maker to implement the evaluation model. The results of this study show that the evaluation indicator system was dynamic due to urban development. Meanwhile, the model of the entire array polygon method was able to effectively evaluate urban comprehensive carrying capacity through the case study. Furthermore, this study found that there is an imbalance among subsystems in urban development according to the standard deviation. The findings are useful for setting up a benchmark framework for urban sustainability and providing an evaluation and monitoring model for decision maker to improve the urban carrying capacity.

Enhancing Urban Comprehensive Capacity for Urbanization Development: An Empirical Application of China’s Southwest Ethnic Region

We can say that enhancing the capacity and functionality of urbanization is the key to China’s development. However, the urbanization development in various regions of China is unbalanced, especially in the southwestern ethnic region with relatively lagging behind the development. As a yardstick of urbanization development, urban comprehensive carrying capacity can provide a reference for urbanization development. Therefore, in order to promote the urbanization process in the southwestern ethnic region, this paper constructed an index system for measuring the urban comprehensive carrying capacity and used entropy method and coupling coordination degree model to calculate the urban comprehensive carrying capacity in China’s southwest ethnic region in 2003-2016 and the coupling coordination between its elements. The results display that the overall carrying capacity of cities in the southwestern ethnic region shows an upward trend in 2003-2016: By analyzing the evolution of different elements, improving traffic and communication capacity significantly, population and environmental carrying capacity are relatively high; while the degree of coupling coordination of each element is not generally high, and the comprehensive carrying capacity and element coupling coordination degree of cities show that the spatial and temporal patterns are “double high” and “double low”.

Comprehensive carrying capacity, economic growth and the sustainable development of urban areas: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract The sustainable development of a city should occur via the harmonious development of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCC) and economic growth. To study the 84 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2006 to 2014, this paper uses a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the relationship between the UCC and economic growth, and explore the sustainability of urban development. The results infer some novel findings. First, the impact of economic growth on the UCC has inverted “U”-type characteristics. The economic growth pattern of the urban agglomeration weakens the UCC. Second, the impact of the UCC on economic growth has “U”-type characteristics. The development of the UCC plays a significant supporting role in the economic growth of the YREB. In 2014, 84 cities stayed in the descending phase of the inverted “U” curve, and approximately 50 cities of them lied on the rising segment of the “U” curve. Therefore, reconstructing economic growth models to enhance the UCC represents an important method of realizing a city's sustainable development.

A Novel Evaluation algorithm of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Index System in Northwest China:Lanzhou city as a example

With the rapid growth of the urban population and quick expansion of urban dimensions, the affecting urban development constraints of urban carrying capacity has increasingly been attracting people's attention. However, the effective synthesization of urban resources carrying capacity, urban environmental carrying capacity, economic carrying capacity, society carrying capacity and traffic carrying capacity hardly acted as an urban comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation system. In this paper, the novel comprehensive index system of urban resources carrying capacity, urban environmental carrying capacity, economic carrying capacity, society carrying capacity and traffic carrying capacity was used for analyzing and evaluating urban comprehensive carrying capacity. Firstly, the standardization of evaluation index was constructed in the urban comprehensive carrying capacity index system. In addition, the past decade data from 2002 to 2011 was analyzed and evaluated in the weighted index system. Finally, the influence mechanism of various carrying capacity factors on urban comprehensive carrying capacity was investigated in Lanzhou. Experimental results can be summarized that the variation tendency of urban comprehensive carrying capacity was the annual increase of levels and the promotion countermeasure was put forward with congenital restricting factors and acquired restricting factors.

Analysis of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the prefecture-level city in Gansu province

Based on the theory of urban carrying capacity, this paper put forward twenty-two indexed applied to assess the problems of the prefecture-level city in Gansu province. The results show that resource carrying capacity is the most important factor that influences city development; the way of improving the urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the improvement of pressure-bearing index; the supply index does no tmatchdemand index; the urban comprehensive carrying capacity presents stair-step decline; the leadership of two biggest cities are weaker relatively. To solve these problems, some measures are put forward such as changing the speed and mode l of development, improving the pattern of the human behaviors, etc.

On the Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the Ethnic Regions in China

In this paper, we analyzed a fresh conception of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity in the context of ecosystem, economy and social dimensions. Based on the AHP methodology, the author constructs the urban comprehensive carrying capacity hierarchical structure model for the chosen ten regions in Inner Mongolia, China. The findings are a better reflection that the urban comprehensive carrying capacity is a complex chaos interconnected with the ecological, economic and social throughputs of the development-oriented regions, and it is an entangled combination of three self-organizing non-equilibrium systems with all concepts fundamental to sustainable urbanization process.

Theoretical Research of the Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in the Epoch of Urbanization

Conventional wisdom suggests that ecological factors are prominent constraints of cities in the urbanization process. By contrast, this article provides a fresh conception of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity in the context of ecosystem, economy and social dimensions. Based on in-depth analysis, the author makes out a list of informative area-based indicators in three differentiated layers and the findings are that the urban comprehensive carrying capacity is an entanglement of three subsystems of resource carrying capacity, economic carrying capacity and social carrying capacity, with all concepts fundamental to sustainable urbanization process.